That Russell 2000 needs to rally soon or its looking like it's going to re-test those lows from last month. I know using parallels is dangerous but I keep looking at the 1981 S&P chart as a parallel to the RUT. Very similar charts. Obviously a move above 1193 negates that and its to the moon (extra exclamation point).
Oil producers - Are these guys gonna get hit with Paulson's plan for implementing carbon taxes? Who benefits, I'm convinced Paulson's bankers are behind the curtain.
Started a position in TSL again at $12.7. I still really like the solar sector and just am worried that the US solars went up too much. TSL has a decent balance sheet and from what I've researched they have less exposure to the tariffs. Also, they've expressed interest in doing yieldcos which is definitely going to boost their stock if they go through with it.
(a) Wrong about the impulse wave, at least based on the very short overnight time frame I had. (b) When I'm wrong, I take losses immediately. RYTNX and RYWVX will be closed at the 1030 am est trading window for estimated losses of -1.12% and -0.1%. RYPMX will be closed end of day. All positions may well close in the green by end of day, but taking losses quickly is one trading rule for which I do not make exceptions. (c) On the bright side, it appears volatility is back in play!
Fuel efficiency mechanisms - You would think these companies that make anything that can enable alternative energies or increase fuel efficiency would qualify for selling carbon credits into the market.
I believe SNE is in the GPRO as well. I'm surprised SNE is so low. Really don't understand why they don't just split up their businesses. They have so many that on their own would be solid businesses.
I know its slow and boring but part of me just wants to load the boat in GOOGL and just stow it away for the next 5 years. There's really nothing that can possibly stop that company from world domination right?
(a) RYTNX closed down -0.93% @ the 1030 window. SPX now headed for a flat close. No point in contemplating 'might have.' Closing quickly is the high odds move. (b) RYWVX closed up +0.4% @ the 1030 window. EEM not much changed since then. (c) RYPMX will likely close +0.75%, based on current pricing for GDX. (d) PBR currently +0.6% from entry. (e) VLO currently +2% from re-entry.
If this was roulette, you could say I lost one outside bet, but hit two inside bets + two outside bets. Were I to close now, the port would be up a fractional percentage point.
2nd - I like the moves. I really like your strategy of closing immediately if its not working. I think that's the right move. I also like the idea of pressing a bet. It works in gambling for a reason. I think many of those rules carry over to short term trading like you're doing. I have had a portion of my portfolio set aside for trading TZA/TNA lately and it works much the same way with those.
I sold the TZA after hours at $14.39. I think the market is stronger than I was thinking and I'm pressing this too much. Basically flat over the past few days on this trade.
I really like the EM's. Are there any leveraged ETFs for these? I was looking at TNA / SOXL / BIB and a few other leveraged ETFs that ran for several years and I think EM's could do this as well.
Has anyone else noticed it's become a stockpicker's market? I have lately been making more trading small positions in individual stocks than trading larger positions in the indexes.
Canada day next Tuesday, July 1, so my wife and I went down to Lake Placid for a long weekend. Going to play some golf and hike a couple mountains and toured the Olympic Village today. Beautiful area, especially for us coming from flat Southern Ontario!
"Dollar General Corporation: CEO Dreiling to retire; Chance of FDO combination increases 31 minutes ago
CEO Dreiling announced intention to retire May 2015, we view current COO as the most likely successor. We believe todays announcement could increase the likelihood of a FDO combination. We reiterate our Buy rating given our view comps will accelerate through the year and plenty of initiatives to drive growth."
Can someone counter my thinking that emerging markets will be a major winner over the next couple of years? I'm thinking a move to $65 for EEM. I think EDC is at least a double from here. Possibly 150%.
I've built up a pretty large position in EDC. My thinking is even if this does take one of those one or two day headers out of nowhere, valuations in a lot of these markets is too compelling for people that have missed the rally thus far over the past 5 years. I think they pile into the emerging markets trade and in fact I think a lot of rotational money goes into it. So I suspect this trend lasts for a year or more.
And even though EMs have rallied hard, all it has done is rally back to prior highs this year. The real heart of the move has only just begun. I think you could see a multi month bull run with hardly any pullbacks, a la SOX or IYT.
See the volume on NSPH, scary as hell 8.7x...... BALT too, big volume. How the hell does such big volume not change price more than that when much smaller volume days achieve more?
I do think that if the economy continues to improve (likely in my opinion), then emerging markets will do well. They are economically sensitive and cheap now.
FXI and I believe EEM have gone up like 10 of the last 11 July's. I think this year is no different.
Pull up a list of Chinese stocks...they're almost all higher. On my list I have DANG, BIDU, YOKU, LEJU (I own some of this), TSL (I still own a small amt of this), SOL all higher.
I'm also thinking of getting back into BALT. I like the idea of buying some here down to the low 5's if it gets there. Rates should rally this summer. Capesize rates are up big today, from a low level of course.
I bought a flier position in CYTX. I think I mentioned this one 2 years or so ago. I invested in a company called Somanetics that got bought out and a guy I know of that was invested in this bought a pretty big stake in Cytori. I have been following it for a while but wasn't ready to invest in them. They have a government funded program that has a near term catalyst (additional funding or no additional funding) coming up. The technology they have is very promising (regenerative medicine used on burn victims, heart failure, and a variety of other applications). It is either going to zero or it could be a huge winner. I bought about a 3% position in it and will probably hold it for a while. It's a local company based in San Diego.
Yeah, might take a while for rates to bottom out I guess, could be a couple years or they may just remain in the dirt forever as the FED continues transferring wealth from the savers to the gamblers.
Who knows. Like Peter Lynch said, it's a complete waste of time trying to figure out the directions of rates. Even the Fed heads don't know where they are going and they have a lot more information than the rest of us. Better to focus on areas we have an advantage.
Back into BALT, small position. $5.89. I like the risk-reward here. Might see another 10% downside in the near term but if rates rise over the summer could go up 40%+.
Capesize rates look like they have begun to stabilize a bit and are heading higher. The BALT CEO stated back in May that he sees rates rising in June and doing better in the 2nd half as more iron ore mines open up (lots of Brazilian ore wasn't being shipped to China which normally commands higher rates due to longer routes). Ore is shipped on Capesize boats and it looks like he was right about Capesize rates picking up. If they get back to the mid 20,000 level I would have to imagine there would be anothe rally in the shippers. I think this could happen much like it did last year.
I'm thinking that the dry bulkers will be good trading stocks for a while and that you can play the swings. I think the recovery in that market will be almost identical to the recovery in the Nat Gas market. Lots of people were calling for massive spikes but I think it will be a slow sluggish recovery. Maybe in a few years you get a big move higher. On the plus side India should help soak up some of the excess supply of ships, but China is slowing infrastructure growth and the growth in demand for coal is slowing (it's still going up but not by much). So I think this means a slower recovery that will allow for good trading opportunities when stocks sell off. I think BALT in the low to high 5's is a good spot to trade from...especially when it has a sub 30 RSI_EMA like it did on Friday. Every time that has happened over the past year a pretty substantial rally has occurred withing 2 months.
That Russell 2000 needs to rally soon or its looking like it's going to re-test those lows from last month. I know using parallels is dangerous but I keep looking at the 1981 S&P chart as a parallel to the RUT. Very similar charts. Obviously a move above 1193 negates that and its to the moon (extra exclamation point).
ReplyDeleteDirty uncircumcised Germans!
ReplyDeleteOil producers - Are these guys gonna get hit with Paulson's plan for implementing carbon taxes? Who benefits, I'm convinced Paulson's bankers are behind the curtain.
ReplyDeleteStarted a position in TSL again at $12.7. I still really like the solar sector and just am worried that the US solars went up too much. TSL has a decent balance sheet and from what I've researched they have less exposure to the tariffs. Also, they've expressed interest in doing yieldcos which is definitely going to boost their stock if they go through with it.
ReplyDeleteOh man, you and ur "market" orders!
DeleteBeing Chinese, will TSL qualify for Paulson's carbon credit scheme?
DeleteHa who the hell knows. Added more at $12.6399.
Delete(a) Wrong about the impulse wave, at least based on the very short overnight time frame I had.
ReplyDelete(b) When I'm wrong, I take losses immediately. RYTNX and RYWVX will be closed at the 1030 am est trading window for estimated losses of -1.12% and -0.1%. RYPMX will be closed end of day. All positions may well close in the green by end of day, but taking losses quickly is one trading rule for which I do not make exceptions.
(c) On the bright side, it appears volatility is back in play!
RH 06/25/14 BACML Neutral -> Buy
ReplyDeleteClairvoyant, is the word that comes to mind.
Sold 1/2 NILE at $28.4X. Moving more to cash in case we get some dumpage. Really just hoping for better prices on a lot of stuff.
ReplyDeleteFuel efficiency mechanisms - You would think these companies that make anything that can enable alternative energies or increase fuel efficiency would qualify for selling carbon credits into the market.
ReplyDeleteReally hoping to get a clean entry on GM around $35.5. I think that would make the position lower risk.
ReplyDeleteAll traders are all over AMBA. That trade is dead. I was all over that at $25 but snoozed on it. It will run again for sure as the company is solid.
ReplyDeleteSNE could rip their tits off in a heartbeat.
DeleteI believe SNE is in the GPRO as well. I'm surprised SNE is so low. Really don't understand why they don't just split up their businesses. They have so many that on their own would be solid businesses.
DeleteTBT - Gettin' close to my stink bid.....
ReplyDeleteHit the bid, I'm in @ $60.52
DeleteThe 1 yr chart for AA is amazing.
ReplyDeleteWouldn't surprise me if the breakout sticks.
DeleteI'm sure i'm the only one who is concerned every co. now is a 'content company'.
ReplyDeleteNews to me, haven't heard of this?
DeleteAdded a little TSL at $12.57.
ReplyDeleteUUP - Back testing the 50SMA
ReplyDeleteThe "Octopus" Drilling rig - Who's rig design is this?
ReplyDeleteCanada Day long weekend? :)
ReplyDeleteI really like how FCX is trading.
ReplyDeleteBALT - $6 AGAIN, a money pump?
ReplyDeleteI'll admit I'm very tempted to try this one again. I'm still thinking it gets to low to mid 5's.
DeleteAlright I took the bite. Bought a starting position at $6.06.
DeleteYeah, I took a look at the baltic index today and passed but could be good for a pop.
DeleteI know its slow and boring but part of me just wants to load the boat in GOOGL and just stow it away for the next 5 years. There's really nothing that can possibly stop that company from world domination right?
ReplyDeleteI think that's an excellent concept.
DeleteAEGN - Support here?
ReplyDeleteGM looks pretty strong, notice every smackdown gets bought ans lifts back up.
ReplyDeleteAGO - Bottom of channel, now or never.
ReplyDelete(a) RYTNX closed down -0.93% @ the 1030 window. SPX now headed for a flat close. No point in contemplating 'might have.' Closing quickly is the high odds move.
ReplyDelete(b) RYWVX closed up +0.4% @ the 1030 window. EEM not much changed since then.
(c) RYPMX will likely close +0.75%, based on current pricing for GDX.
(d) PBR currently +0.6% from entry.
(e) VLO currently +2% from re-entry.
If this was roulette, you could say I lost one outside bet, but hit two inside bets + two outside bets. Were I to close now, the port would be up a fractional percentage point.
2nd - I like the moves. I really like your strategy of closing immediately if its not working. I think that's the right move. I also like the idea of pressing a bet. It works in gambling for a reason. I think many of those rules carry over to short term trading like you're doing. I have had a portion of my portfolio set aside for trading TZA/TNA lately and it works much the same way with those.
DeleteUGAZ, anyone?
ReplyDeleteSold all of my TSL at $12.68 avg. I don't have any strong reason why I sold it to be honest. Just want less exposure to the market.
ReplyDeleteBought TZA at $14.439. Still think the fact that it is holding above $14.3ish is a good thing.
BXE - Breaking out, Ding, ding, ding!!!
ReplyDeleteNWLI - Volume kicked in, rates heading up soon?
ReplyDeleteHave you guys figured out how we front-run carbon credits?
ReplyDeleteI sold the TZA after hours at $14.39. I think the market is stronger than I was thinking and I'm pressing this too much. Basically flat over the past few days on this trade.
ReplyDeleteI really like the EM's. Are there any leveraged ETFs for these? I was looking at TNA / SOXL / BIB and a few other leveraged ETFs that ran for several years and I think EM's could do this as well.
Try RYWVX. It's a mutual fund, of course, but it closes twice daily (1030 and 345), and charges no fees.
DeleteLooks like EDC and YINN are two of them. I like the idea of going long these now. I picked up a few shares of EDC after hours at $30.88.
ReplyDeletehttp://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_24171056.jpg?1403816973
ReplyDeleteI believe average investors are included in this survey, not institutions. Just shows how much apathy people have toward the market.
http://pensionpartners.com/blog/?p=439
ReplyDeleteAwesome work from Charlie Bilello.
Has anyone else noticed it's become a stockpicker's market? I have lately been making more trading small positions in individual stocks than trading larger positions in the indexes.
ReplyDeleteBXE - Just noticed at the close this one dropped under today's target.
ReplyDeleteI couldn't finish it but pretty interesting.
ReplyDeletehttp://pensionpartners.com/blog/?p=439
my link it better than 2nds.
DeleteSame link?!?!?!?
DeleteCanada day next Tuesday, July 1, so my wife and I went down to Lake Placid for a long weekend. Going to play some golf and hike a couple mountains and toured the Olympic Village today. Beautiful area, especially for us coming from flat Southern Ontario!
ReplyDeleteSo you guys leave the country during national holidays?
DeleteIf the nikkei is any indicator tmrw could be ugly
ReplyDeleteKinda looks like we'll see TZA @ 14 again.
ReplyDeleteBXE - Leaving the station.
ReplyDelete$8.55 is today's threshold.
DeleteWell, maybe not today!
DeleteI am debating if I should hold spwr. I bought it after hrs yesterday I think it just goes higher and higher
ReplyDeleteBeen building a position in edc I think EMs are going to go on a multi year run like small caps did starting in 2012
Anyone buying DG? Down on the CEO retiring?
ReplyDeleteI bought this at $57.56. This is a huge overreaction
DeleteOh man, excellent catch! Yeah, I want me some.
DeleteI'm in, $57.32 !!! Thx, I think!
DeleteThey're constructing a new store less than a mile down the road here.
DeleteBACML 12 mo. price objective is $66
Delete"Dollar General Corporation: CEO Dreiling to retire; Chance of FDO combination increases
Delete31 minutes ago
CEO Dreiling announced intention to retire May 2015, we view current COO as the most likely successor. We believe todays announcement could increase the likelihood of a FDO combination. We reiterate our Buy rating given our view comps will accelerate through the year and plenty of initiatives to drive growth."
"Dollar General Corporation: Positive on digital coupon tie-up with COUP; reiterate Buy
DeleteJune 09, 2014"
Chicken likes COUP, the name sounds familiar.
DeleteUGAZ @ 22.
ReplyDeleteMan...PCRX.
ReplyDeleteI considered PCRX last night,
ReplyDeleteDG. That is interesting...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-stock-volumes-going-to-go-crazy-around-4-2014-06-27
ReplyDeleteThis LEJU is doing well again today. I think this could be a $20+ stock in a year.
ReplyDeleteCan someone counter my thinking that emerging markets will be a major winner over the next couple of years? I'm thinking a move to $65 for EEM. I think EDC is at least a double from here. Possibly 150%.
ReplyDeleteI can imagine that happening, easily. In fact, I suspect that's the entire reason the 2008 knockout was orchestrated in the first place.
DeleteI've built up a pretty large position in EDC. My thinking is even if this does take one of those one or two day headers out of nowhere, valuations in a lot of these markets is too compelling for people that have missed the rally thus far over the past 5 years. I think they pile into the emerging markets trade and in fact I think a lot of rotational money goes into it. So I suspect this trend lasts for a year or more.
DeleteAnd even though EMs have rallied hard, all it has done is rally back to prior highs this year. The real heart of the move has only just begun. I think you could see a multi month bull run with hardly any pullbacks, a la SOX or IYT.
DeleteI took the DG off the table at breakeven. I'd rather put that to use in EDC.
ReplyDeleteOffed UGAZ @ 22.24.
ReplyDeleteFLWS - Gotta love those people who don't use limit orders.
ReplyDeleteSLV - Okay so what should the course of action be at the resistance here, short the pee outta the bear flag?
ReplyDeleteMTW - There she blows, I had a feeling.
ReplyDeleteMITK/NSPH ejected from the Russell 3000 today. BALT in!
ReplyDeleteUSA in!!!!
DeleteNo better reason for NSPH to rally and BALT to drop!!!
DeleteSee the volume on NSPH, scary as hell 8.7x...... BALT too, big volume.
DeleteHow the hell does such big volume not change price more than that when much smaller volume days achieve more?
Why do my emails to the IRS keep getting deleted......
ReplyDeleteMissed it today, but it loks like it was another grind higher day and looks like another positive month.
ReplyDeleteHiked up Giant Mountain today, 3 miles and 3000 foot elevation change, so pretty much straight up.
Time forna few Sam Adams!
I've renewed my love affair with Grolsch...and I'm not ashamed.
Delete"Time forna few Sam Adams!"
DeleteHey no fair, you obviously got a head-start!!! :) Sounds similar to a hike up Mt. Fuji, is there snow atop Giant Mountain?
Mark, I wouldn't say this if we weren't good friends but you should feel some degree of shame concerning the Grolsch.... :p
DeleteI kind of agree with CP. It's like saying you're renewing your love affair with The Osmonds.
DeleteIf the Osmonds make beer as good I'm in!
DeleteI'd have a guilty conscience if I didn't admit having sucked down an ice-cold Schlitz a few years back (okay, at least a decade ago) and liking it....
DeleteThe link below includes two charts: the first delineates suggested 401(a) account balance ranges by age, and the second depicts reality.
ReplyDeletehttps://blog.personalcapital.com/financial-planning-2/average-401k-balance-age/
I read this guys blog (financialsamurai) regularly
DeleteBEBE - Is it done going down?
ReplyDeleteZNGA - ?
ReplyDeleteTOF,
ReplyDeleteI do think that if the economy continues to improve (likely in my opinion), then emerging markets will do well. They are economically sensitive and cheap now.
BEBE - Another -4% out of the shoot.
ReplyDeleteDG - Coulda easily guessed Friday's low would be tested within a couple of pennies.
ReplyDeleteBAH - The H&S going to close the Feb gap up? I have big doubts.
ReplyDeleteOK, are we looking at anything here? DG still?
ReplyDeleteTOF loaded up EDC, I bot some DG and thinking of adding more but a little chicken b/c looking at the gap up that's open
DeleteThanks buddy. July is historically a volatile month so maybe a small month long hold in VXX?
DeleteFXI and I believe EEM have gone up like 10 of the last 11 July's. I think this year is no different.
DeletePull up a list of Chinese stocks...they're almost all higher. On my list I have DANG, BIDU, YOKU, LEJU (I own some of this), TSL (I still own a small amt of this), SOL all higher.
I'm also thinking of getting back into BALT. I like the idea of buying some here down to the low 5's if it gets there. Rates should rally this summer. Capesize rates are up big today, from a low level of course.
DeleteTSLA keeps ripping higher, but I did see quite a few used golf carts for sale this past weekend, maybe they were gasoline powered?
DeleteBXE - Looks like it's turning the corner, huh?
ReplyDeleteI bought a flier position in CYTX. I think I mentioned this one 2 years or so ago. I invested in a company called Somanetics that got bought out and a guy I know of that was invested in this bought a pretty big stake in Cytori. I have been following it for a while but wasn't ready to invest in them. They have a government funded program that has a near term catalyst (additional funding or no additional funding) coming up. The technology they have is very promising (regenerative medicine used on burn victims, heart failure, and a variety of other applications). It is either going to zero or it could be a huge winner. I bought about a 3% position in it and will probably hold it for a while. It's a local company based in San Diego.
ReplyDeleteAre they dead without the Gov. funding?
DeleteTBT - Out @ $60.66 I'm done, they can have it.
ReplyDeleteWith European yields are ridiculously low levels, kind of makes it seem like our rates should go lower.
DeleteYeah, might take a while for rates to bottom out I guess, could be a couple years or they may just remain in the dirt forever as the FED continues transferring wealth from the savers to the gamblers.
DeleteWho knows. Like Peter Lynch said, it's a complete waste of time trying to figure out the directions of rates. Even the Fed heads don't know where they are going and they have a lot more information than the rest of us. Better to focus on areas we have an advantage.
DeleteURG - That figures.... No big deal but would be a nice gain.
ReplyDeleteBack into BALT, small position. $5.89. I like the risk-reward here. Might see another 10% downside in the near term but if rates rise over the summer could go up 40%+.
ReplyDeleteCapesize rates look like they have begun to stabilize a bit and are heading higher. The BALT CEO stated back in May that he sees rates rising in June and doing better in the 2nd half as more iron ore mines open up (lots of Brazilian ore wasn't being shipped to China which normally commands higher rates due to longer routes). Ore is shipped on Capesize boats and it looks like he was right about Capesize rates picking up. If they get back to the mid 20,000 level I would have to imagine there would be anothe rally in the shippers. I think this could happen much like it did last year.
DeleteI'm thinking that the dry bulkers will be good trading stocks for a while and that you can play the swings. I think the recovery in that market will be almost identical to the recovery in the Nat Gas market. Lots of people were calling for massive spikes but I think it will be a slow sluggish recovery. Maybe in a few years you get a big move higher. On the plus side India should help soak up some of the excess supply of ships, but China is slowing infrastructure growth and the growth in demand for coal is slowing (it's still going up but not by much). So I think this means a slower recovery that will allow for good trading opportunities when stocks sell off. I think BALT in the low to high 5's is a good spot to trade from...especially when it has a sub 30 RSI_EMA like it did on Friday. Every time that has happened over the past year a pretty substantial rally has occurred withing 2 months.
here's a good chart of the capesize (dark blue) rates:
Deletehttp://www.dryships.com/images/graph/chart1.jpg
TBT - On the bright side, I did almost make enough for 1/2 tank of fuel for the boat, it's getting low.
ReplyDeleteI think I've been relying on the wrong info for earnings for EEM. Do you guys have a good source for what trailing twelve months earnings are?
ReplyDeleteBought back into Sony because I want to lose more money in this godforsaken stock
ReplyDeleteThat's the spirit, pass the f'in potatoes! :)
DeleteI'm gonna pull my hair out if PMs don't stop rallying.
ReplyDeletePAL - Hell, even this one would be near profitable if Pd was $900....
ReplyDeleteAUMN - And what possessed this company to resume digging given silver prices have only fallen since they put the shovel down?
ReplyDeleteGM - At market sell orders or what?
ReplyDeleteINT - 52 week high, bunker fuel sales must be on a tear.
ReplyDeleteRYN - $6B Tree fell in the forest.
ReplyDeleteNUAN - Wow, what a run any POS can be capable of.
ReplyDeleteINVN - Remember this one was beat to hell no long ago? WTF?
ReplyDelete