I think volume at possible lows is a good indicator. Looking over some stocks last night for volume corresponding to hammers I think those did well. Volume at lows and highs, volume precedes price.
So volume is the leading indicator; up days with volume after a big move up implies profit taking and volume on down days following a big move down implies buying, correct?
COX confuses me, how do energy and PMs outperform as the S&P crashes? I recall $20 oil last time this happened and currently North American gas and oil production is considerably higher?
And, I don't quite understand why buying back shares is necessarily foolish except if earnings go negative then losses are split amongst fewer shares? Is he referring to taking on debt in order to purchase shares?
What if a company instead of buying back shares pays down pension obligations, is not that an act of responsibility? Are there any out there?
Note from Technical Titan's list dated 9/22: "TRW is no longer trading on fundamentals; it has been moved to No Rating by BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research and, therefore, is removed from the Technical Titans List. By rule, stocks in the Technical Titans List must be Buy- or Neutral-rated to remain on the list. We are removing CPLP, BRKR, and CTSH due to deteriorating chart patterns. We are removing DOW as the List’s exposure to Materials has gotten too high relative to the benchmark (S&P 500) weighting in the sector."
I like looking at history sometimes, I guess b/c I don't know the future, LOL. Natty argument and TA:
"Natural Gas has gained in value as expressed in all fiat currencies. In fact, the argument can be made in the commodity markets that long-term ownership positions are actually a short bet against paper currencies."
Here's the full Don Coxe article. I think what he is basically saying is the Fed printing really isn't fixing the economy and will come back to haunt us with continued low interest rates and soaring gold prices and (by the way) energy will also do well.
I'm personally on the people who believes "If that investor were to look only at the improving news on the U.S. economy, and the Fed’s hints that normal interest rates are coming soon, then buying U.S. stocks and selling bonds would seem in order."
But always good to read all viewpoints to make good decisions,
Don Coxe: Here's my latest advice to investors
If an investor were only to look at the sky-high S&P 500’s performance this year, then complacency would seem in order.
If that investor were to look only at the improving news on the U.S. economy, and the Fed’s hints that normal interest rates are coming soon, then buying U.S. stocks and selling bonds would seem in order.
If that investor were to look only at the Canadian economy – and not feel great concern about real estate prices in Vancouver, Calgary, and Toronto – then buying Canadian stocks would seem in order.
Six years after the crash, global economic growth is slowing, led by the euro zone’s dismal performance, and diminished growth in both the United States and China. Yes, Wall Street forecasters and the Federal Reserve keep telling us that the U.S. is about to experience strong growth – but they have been telling us that since 2010. The Fed’s own GDP growth forecasts have proved over-optimistic for four straight years. That’s why short-term rates remain near zero. Nobody predicted that near-free money would still be available from both the Fed and the European Central Bank. The Bank of Canada has stuck to its 1 per cent rate far longer than anyone thought in 2010.
What no one other than a few enthusiastic U.S. oil companies predicted in 2011 was that the U.S. would once again become the world’s No. 1 oil producer, after more than four decades back in the pack behind Russia and Saudi Arabia. Result: oil prices are down sharply year-over-year – but oil producers’ profits are soaring.
Finally, almost no one predicted sensationally perfect weather in major grain-growing regions, boosting production of corn, soybeans and wheat to record peaks this year, and crushing grain prices to levels that would have seemed impossible a year ago.
Cheaper foods and cheaper fuels come from large-scale application of production technologies vigorously opposed by global elites: genetically-modified seeds and fracking. Those scientific advances have been boons to consumers and stimuli to economic growth across the world, but have recently become somewhat problematic for investors in oil and agricultural stocks.
This week, global elitists have been demonstrating in Wall Street and other locations internationally against global warming. They demand that the world abandon coal, oil and even natural gas to save the planet. The stars have been rich Rockefellers, announcing they are abandoning all oil and gas investments, and urging pension and endowment funds to dump their investments in companies fouling the planet.
These new Quixotes love windmills, while ignoring their horrendous slaughter of birds and bats. Far-Left Naomi Klein enriches herself with interviews in Vogue and Rolling Stone to promote her book explaining why we must ban all fossil fuels NOW. She doesn’t mention that the world’s temperatures haven’t risen (according to leading agencies and scientists) in 16 years, during which time the world pumped more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than had been produced since the onset of the Industrial Revolution.
Consider that seemingly indestructible S&P: According to an article in the Harvard Business Review, in the past five years, the big companies in the S&P 500 have spent 91 per cent of their earnings buying back their own stocks and paying dividends. Since they’ve also done a great job in lowering their costs, they have been able to grow per-share earnings even with modest top-line growth because of those buybacks.
The new species of capitalist beast looks rumbustiously robust from the results of swallowing its own tail.
However, this tail-swallowing feeding of per-share earnings growth cannot last forever. Recently, the insiders have slashed their purchases of their own shares. Perhaps they realize that their companies have not had the free cash to invest strongly in future growth. The high P/E on the S&P (16 times earnings) is justifiable only if future growth becomes robust.
The post-Cold War global economic boom was based, in significant measure, on annual peace dividends. But geopolitical risks are now the highest in decades – and Wall Street shrugs them off. Almost no prominent Wall Street forecasters have suggested that investors should factor the bad news about confrontations, rebellions and wars into equity valuations. Almost no prominent Wall Street forecasters have suggested that investors take significant overweights in defense stocks – because that would imply that the peace party might be over.
We doubt that elitists who want to ban fossil fuels will give up flying in their jets or driving their BMWs and classic cars. More importantly, global oil demand keeps rising: China ostentatiously avoids joining in the UN’s crusade to ban carbon: Xi Jinping’s goal is a wealthier and stronger China, and that won’t come from a return to bicycles and the Long March.
Nasdaq enthusiasts thought it would climb back this year to the 5,000 level it reached in 2000. By 2008, it had bottomed at 1,400. Since then it has had a great run, but Silicon Valley’s era of global dominance is threatened: the tech sensation this year is Alibaba, and a recent survey claims that nearly 40 per cent of all employees in Silicon Valley toil for companies with no earnings. Cisco, briefly the world’s most valuable company, borrowed $8-billion this year to buy its own stock – and thereafter fired thousands of employees.
For investors, enthusiasm can be productive – or perilous.
If you believe peace will surely return soon, and that the economies of the U.S. and Europe are destined to strengthen dramatically, keep an overweight in big-cap US stocks. If you believe fossil fuel companies will soon be fossils, sell your oil and gas stocks and feel virtuous.
If you, like me, reject both those assumptions, be overweight in your equity portfolio in well-managed oil and gas companies and reasonably-exposed to good companies with good business models that aren’t goosing their stock performance by over-enthusiastic stock-buying.
And if you, like me, worry about all that money the central banks printed to give us this haltingly slow growth, and that global tensions will increase, not disappear, then you will want to have good exposure to gold stocks – and defense stocks.
And if you, like me, think the central banks will not be raising rates soon, invest in longer-term, high quality bonds. They will give you income now, and will give you capital gains when the S&P finally caves in to Stein’s Law: if something cannot go on forever, it will stop.
Could be a lot of downside still if China has completed it's buildout - http://www.mongabay.com/commodities/price-charts/iron-ore-price.html. Copper was also down around $1.00 for years before this bull market.
The real question if you want to be a metals investor is what is the long term price for these metals going forward. I'm torn as oil has gone through huge price increases from $2 a barrell in the early 1970's to $100 now, and if the price of oil dropped back to $2.00, production would fall off a cliff.
With the metals, the question really is whether the $40 iron ore and $1.00 copper is now gone like the $2.00 oil or if prices trend back to these lower levels over time.
Lots of mining development in Mongolia and perhaps Africa as well, by China. I think China is building cities in Mongolia in order to lure people off the land?
i have no idea what the company does. i haven't even looked at it. just have been watching the price for a week now and stalking an entry point. could see a $20 rip at any point even if it is in the context of a move lower later.
CRR makes ceramic propant to hold the cracks open to allow trapped hydrocarbons escape from fracked formations The reason it's been weak is supposedly b/c the use of sand has increased (SLCA, etc.)
My understanding though is the argument says ceramic propants are still required.
Typically, not always, these trades take a week or so before you see a sizeable one or two day reversal to the upside. The others I played in a similar vein were MMYT and WNC a couple of years ago and ENPH last year.
Funny guy, really? These fraqers crush rocks under ground using hydraulic pressure to allow the trapped gas/oil to escape the rocks and the sand they pump into the cracks holds the cracks open to allow hydrocarbons to escape.
All we really know is there is a lot of oil to be had from the Permian. Meanwhile I've tried and cant even get you guys to type the name "Permian", LOL, dunno why.
HCLP sorta kinda looks okay as well but it's already had a good run and seems to be rolling over so I'm just not convinced enough this O&G thing isn't destined for more weakness.
ETP - I dunno why these guys bought a chain of filling stations in Hawaii. This company owns the Sunoco filing station name as well, which supposedly is being spun off to trade under ticker "SUN" sometime soon perhaps?
ATHL - Looks like a lot of insider selling in this one too, ahead of the buyout. So not sure if insiders knew ahead of time and needed to sell or what so sheesh it's confusing task to try using this insider activity as a metric.
Took the rest off at $16.2. most likely will have a chance to re-enter on an oversold reading but who knows. was a huge position so a 15% move in one week is hard to pass up on given how tough this market is.
GSJK - This one is the one I think offers a reasonable chance of breaking through resistance, soon or already some people are going to think about exporting gas. This might be why gas has been looking healthier?
Not that gas will ever be exported actually, it's the concept that matters, if enough people can be convinced it might happen within the next few days.
HXL/ROLL/PCP - I keep hearing about a North American manufacturing renaissance but these appear to be trending down. TA - Still baffles, natty transportation story? Bull flag seems to be about to break out but I can't believe it will.
Could be wrong but something just doesn't feel right about this market. I sold the CRR and EDC and bought a bunch of SPXS at $24.5. Reacting like this after a big down move is probably a recipe for a big hit. The easy move is to buy the dip I think.
Market just seems to be getting wound up. Prices are all over the place. That's usually a good time to be buying but something is telling my gut it's too early. I'll probably be eating crow tomorrow morning.
The majority of investors are worried about the Fed exit. The question is: are they actually positioned that way? are people shorting the market or getting out of positions? or are people buying dips and ignoring it? I think this is a crucial thing to debate if you want to determine the near term direction of the market. No idea what the right answer is. My best guess is we get a fairly sharp drop that really sucks people in on the short side and gets people to bail on positions...all right around a perfect opportunity to be buying up stocks.
Seems like a good trade is to short the market here then buy the panic in a little while. Or just sit in cash and wait for what I think could be some really good opportunities as people panic. I don't think its safe to underestimate just how many people are nervous and willing to bail on the first whiff of negativity.
"I agree 100%, sure looks played out to me as well. Wishing I'd bought CXO at $100 though. I don't have a crystal ball either. Playing bounces is maybe the best approach for the moment, don't disagree there either.
HCLP sorta kinda looks okay as well but it's already had a good run and seems to be rolling over so I'm just not convinced enough this O&G thing isn't destined for more weakness."
I think it's always important to ask ourselves before we take a position: are we ahead of the curve? Taking a look at longer term charts of some of these things makes me think no. Dip buying is another thing of course as there's almost always a good trade somewhere along the line.
EWG is an interesting chart to me. A market that size isn't catching a bid. Look at stocks like F, BID, WYNN, LVS. Those are stocks that should be doing well in a good economy no? I'm not suggesting we have a bad economy but maybe we're heading into a rougher patch than people think for the market?
Schnitzer Steel sees above consensus Q4 earnings Schnitzer Steel (NASDAQ:SCHN) says it expects Q4 adjusted EPS from continuing operations of $0.28-$0.32 vs. $0.16 in the year-ago quarter and analyst consensus estimate of $0.20.SCHN expects its metals recycling business to generate Q4 operating income of $13-$14 per ton, the highest quarterly performance since 2012, due to productivity and cost reduction initiatives, combined with higher sales volumes sequentially and less market price volatility.Sees operating income in its steel manufacturing business of $8M-$9M, the highest quarterly operating income since 2008, citing accelerating demand from west coast construction markets.
Cool and thanks, hadn't seen that yet. Wondering about any red strings attached of course. Looking better though as price hasn't been falling 0.10 each session. Looks like gas export is picking up steam, too.
re the FED, I am not too copncerned as I think the Fed is letting the economy lead and the Fed is just following. When you see some charts of interest rates versus inflation, etc., actual interest rates should be negative now, but since that is very difficult, QE was used to simulate this. Now that the economy is picking up, the natural interest rate is rising and the Fed is stopping QE to reflect this.
I agree there are many risks still and could be a black swan type event, but if the economy and inflation continue to rise, the Fed gradually increases rates. IF the economy falls back, the Fed could reintroduce QE if needed to get things moving forward again.
But I really just think the economy gradually improves and QE falls away and rates rise slowly. And the stock market will rise with rates.
2020 - Was the upside target I was convinced we'd see, could make the case that happened. Not sure where that idea came from though. So today it's gas, D received their export approval so all indicators point to a gas powered rocket?
Guess I should have waited on the GM purchase as it is now under $32. Some chatter about concerns on North America margins after the Ford call, but GM has an investor day this week that should provide more details.
Still think the story is strong with old cars on the road, a strong truck line, recalls pretty much done and very cheap on next year's earnings and relative to the other large auto makers.
AWAY - Alright TOF, get ur azz outta bed and give us the lowdown on this one (AGAIN), LOL. I received a call a couple days ago, someone wanted to buy my timeshare. No, I don't and most likely wouldn't, own a timeshare.
AHP got an upgrade from FBR: http://www.streetinsider.com/Upgrades/FBR+Capital+Upgrades+Ashford+Hospitality+Prime+%28AHP%29+to+Outperform/9869455.html
Of my 4 hotel stocks (2 in Canada) plus AHT, AHP,all except AHP are up 40% to 50% YTD. AHP has done nothing wrong, but I think it is just suffers from being small and fairly new, so could be good upside as the people look for new ideas.
CP, re BXE, read the press release. The funding is available right away, but not planned to spend too quickly and the value back to Grafton is spelled out.
PCLN - $1400 target on this one. Wow, so much larger than SHLD, SHLD shoulda' bought this stock with their last bit-o-cash as opposed to pizzing it away.
GM - $31.82, logical place for at least a bounce. I'm not worried if I have to pay even $33.xx to get in though. Gotts go check out their new stuff, they've been shipping turbochargers again and not sure how that's working this time. Last time that was a specialty item from Buick and mildly more popular than diesel but Europe loves stuff like that and perhaps China does too?
AHT - See the gap up in Feb? Wonder if that will close and mark the end of this bout of weakness? AHP is externally managed by AHT so this might be root cause of weakness PERHAPS. Might be AHT buys out AHP as rates are so low it kinda makes sense?
AHT just spun AHP out last year as they felt they weren't getting the valuation deserved for such high quality assets. It basically is all their high rev-per-room hotels and these types of hotels generally trade at a premium valuation. So, the hope is this happens and AHT still owns 20% so this will get reflected in their price as well
I originally thought YELP would hit $68 when it first dropped to $76 a couple of weeks ago. Should have listened to myself...I bought at $75.xx and sold at $72 I believe.
CVEO - So can't convert to REIT b/c most of operations are out of country and thus converting to REIT has no effect. Exercise in futility. Thus, stock price drops 50%, say what? Is market stupid enough to not know conversion makes no sense?
price to sales is same as AHP, trades near book like AHP, provides services to growing oil industry.... Help me out, why shouldn't this interest me?
“Temperatures may be below normal in parts of the central U.S. from Oct. 4 through Oct. 13, according to MDA Weather Services in Gaithersburg, Maryland. Gas stockpiles were 13 percent below the five-year average in the week ended Sept. 19, the biggest deficit for the time of year since 2005. “
“With just six weeks left of the injection season, there is little doubt that the industry will transition into the winter with a sizable year-on-year storage deficit,” Teri Viswanath, director of commodities of strategy at BNP Paribas SA in New York, said in a note to clients."
BXE - Have tried to comprehend the PR, seems like selling forward in return for bringing development forward. Doesn't make me puke. Gagging on this air pocket though, most likely China data impacting oil I guess? So umm, China awaits US open to release data?
A soothing tune in case the hairs on your neck and back are ruffled: http://sixties60s.com/1967/radio/Up%20Up%20And%20Away.mp3
CVEO also warned about Q4 in the announcement, so this is weighing on the stock. So, there are a lot of arb guys getting out since the REIT didn't happen. Plus, you've got a warning and oil tanking today (so less business).
Probably it will be a good buy soon. Hard to tell when the selling is done though and how many people have to get out.
Today's trading seems really weak to me given (1) its the last day of the quarter and there's usually positioning that occurs this day that keeps the market up (2) the market is already oversold
I am getting the sense that a lot of traders are still buying dips. There are a lot of momentum names barely holding support. I think traders will give up soon and there will be a flush coming. I'm getting excited about this potential opportunity.
Look at the flushes that occurred in the shippers. Obviously this has to do with other factors but I wouldn't be shocked to see this on a smaller scale across a lot of sectors. I'm thinking odds are increasing we are about to see our 8 to 13% correction.
This feels a bit like the type of market we had going into the May flash crash. For some reason, I remember vividly how heavy that market felt leading up to the flash crash.
AHT's spinoff might have everyone wondering WTF is this dumping? So at some point after those assets are grossly mispriced by the market someone can come along with a low rate corporate loan and take it private.
CENX - Also upgraded to buy. I don't get it with aluminum man, like a giant tower to the moon is being constructed all of aluminum. Or maybe AAPL's next iphone will be all aluminum since it bends so nicely?
FCX - neutral -> Buy. Okay, finally one that hasn't double topped. MO - This one's a change to buy as well, BTW, emerging markets smoke a lot still I guess.
Held on to 1/4 of my UGAZ shares. Just sitting in cash and waiting...hoping we get a sharp short covering rally in the next couple of days to reload shorts.
PNRA - Not sure but this is one I've been trying to keep tabs on. Looks like it's moving. I have to think you guys already saw this but prefer natty producers and shipping but thought it might be worth mention.
Hulbert looking for a bounce based on strong Nasdaq bearishness. It does seem to line up pretty well with market bottoms, but only has 2 years in the chart which was during a strong bullish time, so may not identify larger corrections.
by the way, i've only been using two things to buy natty: (1) COT report (spec longs at highest short position i've ever seen which is almost always an excellent contrarian indicator) (2) technicals
Just prior to this latest turn MACD was trending down for 29 weeks which is one of the longest I could find in a period where prices were generally rising.
BB - As of yesterday I was still seeing tons of traders unwilling to throw in the towel and looking to buy dips. Now is as good of a time as any to begin a 8 to 12% pullback.
It's paid to buy the 3-5% dips for almost 3 years now, so you know traders will try it again. One of these times it won't work and maybe this is it. Who knows, but it does seem to be setting up that the time it doesn't work, we will get a swift pullback as the traders will just dump positions.
My best guess if we have another 2-3 weeks of selling. with a bounce mixed in coming sometime fairly soon. maybe selling today and tomorrow then a bounce to mid week next week, then more selling. If so the bounce would fail at SPX 1,960ish. Basically right below where the market had support for the past 3 days...ie support becomes resistance.
I think so too to a certain extent. Only issue I have with most of these momentum names is you really can't justify the current valuation of them. You need significant growth for several years to get them to be on the upper end of a reasonable valuation. Not saying that won't happen but the majority of them have further to fall. Trading them is basically betting that momentum will continue. Otherwise I think it's important to consider the prior major areas of support as a trading entry. So for YELP maybe the low $50's? I don't think YELP should have fallen this far. It's prob due for a bounce but I think odds are increasing that it goes back to $50ish
Of all of the "small" momentum names I like the fundamentals of Z the best. I think it has the best shot against the big dogs like GOOGL. Not sure when that would be buyable though. Would be looking for a 30 reading on the weekly RSI_EMA to get me interested.
Alright, dip buyers should be running out of cash about now... I'm counting on selling for the remainder of today at least. Expected more from TKMR, considering there aren't many places to flock to with such a compelling news story. Maybe they don't really have a solid cure and it's only untested. What are the results of CDC's testing, need to find out but seems like closed lips.
Russia cut natural gas supplies to European Union member Slovakia by 50% Wednesday, Moscow's latest and most significant reduction in energy supplies to an EU country that is helping Ukraine build gas supplies ahead of winter. Slovakia's prime minister said the supply cut is a politically driven message to the EU as it negotiates fragile gas talks between Moscow and Kiev . "What's interesting in the case is that it isn't about a lack of gas, but this is about playing with gas supplies as an instrument of political posturing," Robert Fico said Wednesday. Slovakia this year began supplying natural gas to its eastern neighbor as an act of solidarity after Russia's OAO Gazprom stopped supplying Ukraine with gas in June amid a price dispute and the broader conflicts between the two countries. Mr. Fico said Slovakia will "fulfill its commitments" to supply Ukraine with the fuel. Eustream, the Slovak gas pipeline operator, Wednesday said its supplies to Ukraine were taking place without interruption. Gazprom earlier reduced gas flows to Slovakia and Austria , as well as to Poland , which also is supplying Ukraine with gas. Hungary , which had been supplying gas to Ukraine , last week halted all gas shipments there, leaving Slovakia and Poland as Ukraine's lone suppliers. Hungary Wednesday said it is receiving all contracted supplies of gas from Russia . The fall in supplies to the EU states comes as Russia and Ukraine have been unable to agree on terms to resume gas flows to the former Soviet country. Last Friday the two sides agreed to a tentative deal brokered by European Commissioner for Energy Günther Oettinger, but Moscow and Kiev haven't agreed on details and the compact remains on ice as the winter heating season approaches. As of Sept. 30 , Ukraine's underground gas storage facilities were only at 52% of capacity, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe, a Brussels -based trade group. Ukraine faces a gas shortage if supplies cannot be resumed, analysts have said. To cope domestically with the fall in gas supplies, Slovakia's natural gas import and distribution company SPP AS said that it has made an "extraordinary purchase" of gas on the spot market from alternative suppliers. The volume it acquired is sufficient to cover the current daily consumption of its customer base, while also enabling the country to continue filling its underground storage facilities, the company said. Slovakia's storage facilities were at 95% of capacity on Tuesday. SPP said it would continue injecting gas into the underground storage units until the end of October and Slovak households and businesses will continue to receive all gas needed. Should gas supplies to Slovakia remain reduced or even stop, SPP said it has adopted measures enabling it to source gas from Austria , the Czech Republic and Germany . Mr. Fico said he doesn't believe Russia will completely halt gas supplies to the EU country.
SPWR/SOL - Okay, so if the global warming issue is the serious play and even natty is dead then why wouldn't the solars be rocking? Who owns the carbon rights for the Amazon, Buildaburgers?
The other thing is earnings reporting starts next Tuesday with AA. I think earnings season will generally be good. There may be a few misses due the higher dollar affecting overseas earnings, but other than that, expectations are low and show be easily beatable. This may stop the decline as well. It has many other quarters recently.
Interestingly, for the stocks I follow, they are not getting hit as hard as they were last week. I think it is because they are getting too cheap and the investor types are stepping in at these prices.
I don't follow any of the high-flier stocks, so not sure how they are doing today.
BB - I hear ya on valuation but my guess is these "bounces" will be sold into. GM is up today but do you think it lasts if the market goes 10% lower? Tough call. I look at a stock like BID and it is still having trouble hold gains. Would be nice to see at least a few higher lows over a multi month time frame in that stock to suggest to me we're out of the woods. Not wise to read too much into any single stock but that one I think mirrors our economy pretty well.
(a) DJIA -250 (-1.4%). (b) EEM -1.8%. Closing my position for a minor loss. (c) Bonds are rallying. TLT (long bond) +2%. TIPS +0.8%. (d) Gold +5/oz. GDX (major miners) +0.5%. GDXJ (juniors) +1.5%.
EWZ (Brazil) now -23%! (no typo) off its YTD high (which occurred on September 3). FXI (China) -12% off its YTD high.
Sure, the markets could (and until today, I thought they would) re-challenge their September highs fairly quickly. But I'm no hero. As I see it, today's dive in the US indexes slices through a number of support levels (turning them into resistance levels). Emerging markets, for one, are no longer in an uptrend. I plan to take gains on miners + TIPS (along with a small loss on EEM), and retreat to cash. There's no way to know if a 'crash' is imminent (I doubt it), but in the event no asset classes save cash will be spared. I also plan to close my small position in HDGE (+1.5% today) to make it a clean slate. Btw, most crashes occur from 'oversold' conditions, not from all-time highs. Emerging markets are certainly oversold at this point. On the other hand, today may be the 'washout' low that clears markets for takeoff on Thursday or Friday. I'm not smart enough to know, and I'm happy with my YTD performance.
Remember the last bear market? Try to have stop losses in mind. It's relatively manageable to be down a few percent. Don't underestimate the pain of being down -25% (which is exactly where investors in Brazil find themselves today, less than a month from the year's high).
I bet it takes at least a month for the FED to realize Brazil has slipped down the tubes. Seemed it was several months they kept saying the economy was strong all the while having secret meetings with WS bankers who were in panic mode behind closed doors.
TOF sent an email looking at the recent volume in UGAZ. Pretty compelling.
ReplyDeleteI think volume at possible lows is a good indicator. Looking over some stocks last night for volume corresponding to hammers I think those did well. Volume at lows and highs, volume precedes price.
DeleteSo volume is the leading indicator; up days with volume after a big move up implies profit taking and volume on down days following a big move down implies buying, correct?
COX confuses me, how do energy and PMs outperform as the S&P crashes? I recall $20 oil last time this happened and currently North American gas and oil production is considerably higher?
ReplyDeleteAnd, I don't quite understand why buying back shares is necessarily foolish except if earnings go negative then losses are split amongst fewer shares? Is he referring to taking on debt in order to purchase shares?
DeleteWhat if a company instead of buying back shares pays down pension obligations, is not that an act of responsibility? Are there any out there?
Some ideas for military contractor investment:
Deletehttp://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/09/24/why-drones-don-t-cut-it-in-syria.html
Note from Technical Titan's list dated 9/22:
ReplyDelete"TRW is no longer trading on fundamentals; it has been moved to No Rating by BofA
Merrill Lynch Global Research and, therefore, is removed from the Technical Titans
List. By rule, stocks in the Technical Titans List must be Buy- or Neutral-rated to
remain on the list. We are removing CPLP, BRKR, and CTSH due to deteriorating
chart patterns. We are removing DOW as the List’s exposure to Materials has
gotten too high relative to the benchmark (S&P 500) weighting in the sector."
SGG - You guys seen this one?
ReplyDeleteI looked at this tonight b/c a friend from Uruguay I spoke with last weekend mentioned something about unusual weather, excess rain I think he said.
DeleteAKAM - Barely moved, guess some gave up hope and went elsewhere for a few days?
ReplyDeleteI like looking at history sometimes, I guess b/c I don't know the future, LOL. Natty argument and TA:
ReplyDelete"Natural Gas has gained in value as expressed in all fiat currencies. In fact, the argument can be made in the commodity markets that long-term ownership positions are actually a short bet against paper currencies."
http://peterlbrandt.com/chart-day-continuing-bull-market-natural-gas/
I've noticed these 200/50 MA crosses are often met with a positive response:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=kkr&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
IG - What is this? Biocuriousity....
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteHere's the full Don Coxe article. I think what he is basically saying is the Fed printing really isn't fixing the economy and will come back to haunt us with continued low interest rates and soaring gold prices and (by the way) energy will also do well.
ReplyDeleteI'm personally on the people who believes "If that investor were to look only at the improving news on the U.S. economy, and the Fed’s hints that normal interest rates are coming soon, then buying U.S. stocks and selling bonds would seem in order."
But always good to read all viewpoints to make good decisions,
Don Coxe: Here's my latest advice to investors
If an investor were only to look at the sky-high S&P 500’s performance this year, then complacency would seem in order.
If that investor were to look only at the improving news on the U.S. economy, and the Fed’s hints that normal interest rates are coming soon, then buying U.S. stocks and selling bonds would seem in order.
If that investor were to look only at the Canadian economy – and not feel great concern about real estate prices in Vancouver, Calgary, and Toronto – then buying Canadian stocks would seem in order.
Six years after the crash, global economic growth is slowing, led by the euro zone’s dismal performance, and diminished growth in both the United States and China. Yes, Wall Street forecasters and the Federal Reserve keep telling us that the U.S. is about to experience strong growth – but they have been telling us that since 2010. The Fed’s own GDP growth forecasts have proved over-optimistic for four straight years. That’s why short-term rates remain near zero. Nobody predicted that near-free money would still be available from both the Fed and the European Central Bank. The Bank of Canada has stuck to its 1 per cent rate far longer than anyone thought in 2010.
What no one other than a few enthusiastic U.S. oil companies predicted in 2011 was that the U.S. would once again become the world’s No. 1 oil producer, after more than four decades back in the pack behind Russia and Saudi Arabia. Result: oil prices are down sharply year-over-year – but oil producers’ profits are soaring.
Finally, almost no one predicted sensationally perfect weather in major grain-growing regions, boosting production of corn, soybeans and wheat to record peaks this year, and crushing grain prices to levels that would have seemed impossible a year ago.
Cheaper foods and cheaper fuels come from large-scale application of production technologies vigorously opposed by global elites: genetically-modified seeds and fracking. Those scientific advances have been boons to consumers and stimuli to economic growth across the world, but have recently become somewhat problematic for investors in oil and agricultural stocks.
This week, global elitists have been demonstrating in Wall Street and other locations internationally against global warming. They demand that the world abandon coal, oil and even natural gas to save the planet. The stars have been rich Rockefellers, announcing they are abandoning all oil and gas investments, and urging pension and endowment funds to dump their investments in companies fouling the planet.
These new Quixotes love windmills, while ignoring their horrendous slaughter of birds and bats. Far-Left Naomi Klein enriches herself with interviews in Vogue and Rolling Stone to promote her book explaining why we must ban all fossil fuels NOW. She doesn’t mention that the world’s temperatures haven’t risen (according to leading agencies and scientists) in 16 years, during which time the world pumped more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than had been produced since the onset of the Industrial Revolution.
So what’s a Canadian investor to do?
DeleteWe think caution – not despair – is in order.
Consider that seemingly indestructible S&P: According to an article in the Harvard Business Review, in the past five years, the big companies in the S&P 500 have spent 91 per cent of their earnings buying back their own stocks and paying dividends. Since they’ve also done a great job in lowering their costs, they have been able to grow per-share earnings even with modest top-line growth because of those buybacks.
The new species of capitalist beast looks rumbustiously robust from the results of swallowing its own tail.
However, this tail-swallowing feeding of per-share earnings growth cannot last forever. Recently, the insiders have slashed their purchases of their own shares. Perhaps they realize that their companies have not had the free cash to invest strongly in future growth. The high P/E on the S&P (16 times earnings) is justifiable only if future growth becomes robust.
The post-Cold War global economic boom was based, in significant measure, on annual peace dividends. But geopolitical risks are now the highest in decades – and Wall Street shrugs them off. Almost no prominent Wall Street forecasters have suggested that investors should factor the bad news about confrontations, rebellions and wars into equity valuations. Almost no prominent Wall Street forecasters have suggested that investors take significant overweights in defense stocks – because that would imply that the peace party might be over.
We doubt that elitists who want to ban fossil fuels will give up flying in their jets or driving their BMWs and classic cars. More importantly, global oil demand keeps rising: China ostentatiously avoids joining in the UN’s crusade to ban carbon: Xi Jinping’s goal is a wealthier and stronger China, and that won’t come from a return to bicycles and the Long March.
Nasdaq enthusiasts thought it would climb back this year to the 5,000 level it reached in 2000. By 2008, it had bottomed at 1,400. Since then it has had a great run, but Silicon Valley’s era of global dominance is threatened: the tech sensation this year is Alibaba, and a recent survey claims that nearly 40 per cent of all employees in Silicon Valley toil for companies with no earnings. Cisco, briefly the world’s most valuable company, borrowed $8-billion this year to buy its own stock – and thereafter fired thousands of employees.
For investors, enthusiasm can be productive – or perilous.
If you believe peace will surely return soon, and that the economies of the U.S. and Europe are destined to strengthen dramatically, keep an overweight in big-cap US stocks. If you believe fossil fuel companies will soon be fossils, sell your oil and gas stocks and feel virtuous.
If you, like me, reject both those assumptions, be overweight in your equity portfolio in well-managed oil and gas companies and reasonably-exposed to good companies with good business models that aren’t goosing their stock performance by over-enthusiastic stock-buying.
And if you, like me, worry about all that money the central banks printed to give us this haltingly slow growth, and that global tensions will increase, not disappear, then you will want to have good exposure to gold stocks – and defense stocks.
And if you, like me, think the central banks will not be raising rates soon, invest in longer-term, high quality bonds. They will give you income now, and will give you capital gains when the S&P finally caves in to Stein’s Law: if something cannot go on forever, it will stop.
"a recent survey claims that nearly 40 per cent of all employees in Silicon Valley toil for companies with no earnings."
DeleteSounds like a serious situation. Is my impression a large amount of insider selling has taken place in the past several months, incorrect?
VALE - Look how this one has tanked, with iron ore prices at new 5 year lows.
ReplyDeleteCould be a lot of downside still if China has completed it's buildout - http://www.mongabay.com/commodities/price-charts/iron-ore-price.html. Copper was also down around $1.00 for years before this bull market.
DeleteThe real question if you want to be a metals investor is what is the long term price for these metals going forward. I'm torn as oil has gone through huge price increases from $2 a barrell in the early 1970's to $100 now, and if the price of oil dropped back to $2.00, production would fall off a cliff.
With the metals, the question really is whether the $40 iron ore and $1.00 copper is now gone like the $2.00 oil or if prices trend back to these lower levels over time.
No obvious answer to me.
Lots of mining development in Mongolia and perhaps Africa as well, by China. I think China is building cities in Mongolia in order to lure people off the land?
DeleteOIBR - This could be have a decent shot from here?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4q8fs8gTIs&feature=youtu.be
ReplyDeleteLive from Hong Kong.
WITF do I keep wasting time looking at ANR/WLT?
ReplyDeleteJNS- Does that make any sense at all?
ReplyDeleteThat's a poor sentence.
DeleteIt might make sense, $15 PO and neutral is on my screen. Not sure if that was revised recently.
DeleteSPXS - Wow, was almost convinced this one was a sell under $24.36 but low and behold.....
ReplyDeleteDB - $24.68 is where I was knocked out, here's a chance to re-enter.
ReplyDeleteNLY - Including divs, I'm very close to break-even.
ReplyDeleteTBT looks good, technical rebound due for BALT?
ReplyDeleteORI - Sure recovered quickly.
ReplyDeleteGOOG - Nice channel for trading?
ReplyDeletePicked up some EDC today at $27
ReplyDeleteHussman saying (maybe hopying) "As conditions stand, we currently observe the ingredients of a market crash."
ReplyDeleteAnd his fund is down another 10% this year while the S&P is up 8%.
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc140929.htm
Also picked up a small chunk of CRR at $62.27
ReplyDeleteRSI(7) is the lowest I have ever seen something. I'm betting it doesn't go belly up :)
DeleteNo debt, so bankruptcy shouldn't be a problem. As far as the business goes, no idea.
Deletei have no idea what the company does. i haven't even looked at it. just have been watching the price for a week now and stalking an entry point. could see a $20 rip at any point even if it is in the context of a move lower later.
DeleteCRR makes ceramic propant to hold the cracks open to allow trapped hydrocarbons escape from fracked formations The reason it's been weak is supposedly b/c the use of sand has increased (SLCA, etc.)
DeleteMy understanding though is the argument says ceramic propants are still required.
I'll probably be out before I figure out what the hell all of that means!
DeleteTypically, not always, these trades take a week or so before you see a sizeable one or two day reversal to the upside. The others I played in a similar vein were MMYT and WNC a couple of years ago and ENPH last year.
DeleteFunny guy, really? These fraqers crush rocks under ground using hydraulic pressure to allow the trapped gas/oil to escape the rocks and the sand they pump into the cracks holds the cracks open to allow hydrocarbons to escape.
Deleteyeah i understand the sand part but i just don't know enough to know which materials work best. the SLCA play was awesome.
DeleteAll we really know is there is a lot of oil to be had from the Permian. Meanwhile I've tried and cant even get you guys to type the name "Permian", LOL, dunno why.
Deletei just feel like a lot of that stuff is already played out. look at the chart of SLCA man. need to see some sort of pullback and base setting first.
DeleteI agree 100%, sure looks played out to me as well. Wishing I'd bought CXO at $100 though. I don't have a crystal ball either.
DeletePlaying bounces is maybe the best approach for the moment, don't disagree there either.
HCLP sorta kinda looks okay as well but it's already had a good run and seems to be rolling over so I'm just not convinced enough this O&G thing isn't destined for more weakness.
DeleteUGAZ perking up nicely. Resistance is $4.10 for natty though
ReplyDeleteETP - ?
ReplyDeleteATHL - There she goes.
ReplyDeleteECA - Buying into this Permian region, eh?
DeleteHAWK - Not one of those hot-snot stocks we're always chasing down the rat hole. As far as I know, neither is INT, for that matter.
ReplyDeleteIVR - Not sure what's up but this one was upgraded to buy.
ReplyDeleteETP - I dunno why these guys bought a chain of filling stations in Hawaii. This company owns the Sunoco filing station name as well, which supposedly is being spun off to trade under ticker "SUN" sometime soon perhaps?
ReplyDeleteMXC - When does someone buy this puny stink bug just so they can have access through a gate for their sand trucks?
ReplyDeleteBAS - Zacks thinks the earnings streak will continue but if so why did insiders unload? Otherwise, I can imagine Zacks is correct.
ReplyDeleteURG - Every time without fail lifts out of the low $1 area.
ReplyDeleteATHL - Looks like a lot of insider selling in this one too, ahead of the buyout. So not sure if insiders knew ahead of time and needed to sell or what so sheesh it's confusing task to try using this insider activity as a metric.
ReplyDeleteTook off 1/3 of UGAZ at $16.50
ReplyDeleteTook the rest off at $16.2. most likely will have a chance to re-enter on an oversold reading but who knows. was a huge position so a 15% move in one week is hard to pass up on given how tough this market is.
DeleteBXE - I have to think today the crowd is hoping BXE gets some asset offers. Sellers should come out of hiding any moment.
ReplyDeleteGSJK - This one is the one I think offers a reasonable chance of breaking through resistance, soon or already some people are going to think about exporting gas. This might be why gas has been looking healthier?
ReplyDeleteNot that gas will ever be exported actually, it's the concept that matters, if enough people can be convinced it might happen within the next few days.
Guess you could say an inverted head and shoulders. I have followed this one for a while. Nice volatility creates opportunity.
DeleteHXL/ROLL/PCP - I keep hearing about a North American manufacturing renaissance but these appear to be trending down.
ReplyDeleteTA - Still baffles, natty transportation story? Bull flag seems to be about to break out but I can't believe it will.
XLF - Looks like I might be able to buy this one under $22 in a month or two, and XLE maybe under $85. Perhaps around end of December?
ReplyDeleteBXE - As if computer algos sniffed it out over the weekend as ATHL news came out.
ReplyDeleteWAG - Time for a cherry soda soon?
ReplyDeleteCould be wrong but something just doesn't feel right about this market. I sold the CRR and EDC and bought a bunch of SPXS at $24.5. Reacting like this after a big down move is probably a recipe for a big hit. The easy move is to buy the dip I think.
ReplyDeleteMarket just seems to be getting wound up. Prices are all over the place. That's usually a good time to be buying but something is telling my gut it's too early. I'll probably be eating crow tomorrow morning.
DeleteKey is how much you eat I guess. My stomach always feels queasy after eating crow. :)
DeleteThe majority of investors are worried about the Fed exit. The question is: are they actually positioned that way? are people shorting the market or getting out of positions? or are people buying dips and ignoring it? I think this is a crucial thing to debate if you want to determine the near term direction of the market. No idea what the right answer is. My best guess is we get a fairly sharp drop that really sucks people in on the short side and gets people to bail on positions...all right around a perfect opportunity to be buying up stocks.
DeleteSeems like a good trade is to short the market here then buy the panic in a little while. Or just sit in cash and wait for what I think could be some really good opportunities as people panic. I don't think its safe to underestimate just how many people are nervous and willing to bail on the first whiff of negativity.
"I agree 100%, sure looks played out to me as well. Wishing I'd bought CXO at $100 though. I don't have a crystal ball either. Playing bounces is maybe the best approach for the moment, don't disagree there either.
ReplyDeleteHCLP sorta kinda looks okay as well but it's already had a good run and seems to be rolling over so I'm just not convinced enough this O&G thing isn't destined for more weakness."
I think it's always important to ask ourselves before we take a position: are we ahead of the curve? Taking a look at longer term charts of some of these things makes me think no. Dip buying is another thing of course as there's almost always a good trade somewhere along the line.
GM - Wtf was that, a hit and run or broadside?
ReplyDeleteLook at F for a clue
DeleteOh yeah, now I see it. Always get handed your butt and the last to know why.
DeleteI predict those stocks which gained with big volumes were being sold into strength. Seems like the persistent advances occur with low volume.
ReplyDeleteEWG is an interesting chart to me. A market that size isn't catching a bid. Look at stocks like F, BID, WYNN, LVS. Those are stocks that should be doing well in a good economy no? I'm not suggesting we have a bad economy but maybe we're heading into a rougher patch than people think for the market?
ReplyDeleteCVEO - Perhaps I should take this one off now?
ReplyDeleteI thought you lived in one of their camps?
DeleteYeah man, but these portable cabins made from converted shipping containers get musty inside with BO.
DeleteTSLA - Looks like maybe $220 coming?
ReplyDeletehttp://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-25/mystery-man-moving-japan-made-more-than-1-million-trades.html
ReplyDeleteGood earnings from another steel company:
ReplyDeleteSchnitzer Steel sees above consensus Q4 earnings
Schnitzer Steel (NASDAQ:SCHN) says it expects Q4 adjusted EPS from continuing operations of $0.28-$0.32 vs. $0.16 in the year-ago quarter and analyst consensus estimate of $0.20.SCHN expects its metals recycling business to generate Q4 operating income of $13-$14 per ton, the highest quarterly performance since 2012, due to productivity and cost reduction initiatives, combined with higher sales volumes sequentially and less market price volatility.Sees operating income in its steel manufacturing business of $8M-$9M, the highest quarterly operating income since 2008, citing accelerating demand from west coast construction markets.
Good news from BXE this morning - more funding from one of their partnerships to help develop reserves more quickly:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/bellatrix-announces-grafton-committed-additional-120000827.html
Cool and thanks, hadn't seen that yet. Wondering about any red strings attached of course. Looking better though as price hasn't been falling 0.10 each session. Looks like gas export is picking up steam, too.
DeleteTOF,
ReplyDeletere the FED, I am not too copncerned as I think the Fed is letting the economy lead and the Fed is just following. When you see some charts of interest rates versus inflation, etc., actual interest rates should be negative now, but since that is very difficult, QE was used to simulate this. Now that the economy is picking up, the natural interest rate is rising and the Fed is stopping QE to reflect this.
I agree there are many risks still and could be a black swan type event, but if the economy and inflation continue to rise, the Fed gradually increases rates. IF the economy falls back, the Fed could reintroduce QE if needed to get things moving forward again.
But I really just think the economy gradually improves and QE falls away and rates rise slowly. And the stock market will rise with rates.
2020 - Was the upside target I was convinced we'd see, could make the case that happened. Not sure where that idea came from though.
ReplyDeleteSo today it's gas, D received their export approval so all indicators point to a gas powered rocket?
Hi all,
ReplyDeleteJust a heads up that AWAY is on the move. Good volume early.
I am thinking it may be anticipating an IPO from Airbnb in the future (end of year?).
Guess I should have waited on the GM purchase as it is now under $32. Some chatter about concerns on North America margins after the Ford call, but GM has an investor day this week that should provide more details.
ReplyDeleteStill think the story is strong with old cars on the road, a strong truck line, recalls pretty much done and very cheap on next year's earnings and relative to the other large auto makers.
I've been waiting on that one for now. Not b/c I think it's headed lower but just in case it does.
DeleteAWAY - Alright TOF, get ur azz outta bed and give us the lowdown on this one (AGAIN), LOL. I received a call a couple days ago, someone wanted to buy my timeshare. No, I don't and most likely wouldn't, own a timeshare.
ReplyDeleteAHP got an upgrade from FBR:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.streetinsider.com/Upgrades/FBR+Capital+Upgrades+Ashford+Hospitality+Prime+%28AHP%29+to+Outperform/9869455.html
Of my 4 hotel stocks (2 in Canada) plus AHT, AHP,all except AHP are up 40% to 50% YTD. AHP has done nothing wrong, but I think it is just suffers from being small and fairly new, so could be good upside as the people look for new ideas.
Was just thinking of that one.
DeleteGood place for an upgrade, looks like decent insider participation too.
DeleteCP, re BXE, read the press release. The funding is available right away, but not planned to spend too quickly and the value back to Grafton is spelled out.
ReplyDeleteOkay, I will of course. I think BXE is back loaded, which is likely why it's been weak as traders don't like waiting.
DeleteF - Not sure why this is such a surprise all of a sudden, they already said months ago not to expect good business from Europe.
ReplyDeleteSorta thought today would start off strong. This gives me more time to think though, which I always need b/c I'm a slower thinker than most.
ReplyDeleteAHP- Thanks BB. I'll see if I can get in this one again.
ReplyDeleteOpening a position in Emerging Markets for a short-term trade. EEM -0.4% this morning, and -9.7% from its YTD high on September 5.
ReplyDeleteI bet TLM is up on EBAY news.
ReplyDeleteI don't see it but found this: "Using Tesla Math, GM’s Buick Unit Should Be Worth $1.1 Trillion"
DeletePCLN - $1400 target on this one. Wow, so much larger than SHLD, SHLD shoulda' bought this stock with their last bit-o-cash as opposed to pizzing it away.
ReplyDelete"Hi all,
ReplyDeleteJust a heads up that AWAY is on the move. Good volume early.
I am thinking it may be anticipating an IPO from Airbnb in the future (end of year?)."
Hey Brad - I've been following AWAY for a while but didn't look at the chart the past couple of weeks. That's for the reminder. I like that stock.
GM - $31.82, logical place for at least a bounce. I'm not worried if I have to pay even $33.xx to get in though. Gotts go check out their new stuff, they've been shipping turbochargers again and not sure how that's working this time. Last time that was a specialty item from Buick and mildly more popular than diesel but Europe loves stuff like that and perhaps China does too?
ReplyDeleteI ended up taking a small hit on SPXS at $24.41. I figure its the end of Q3 and the last thing that will happen is a crash.
ReplyDeleteI use the term crash lightly. I hopped back in for a trade.
DeleteScratch that idea. I'm out. They're gonna rip this baby into the quarter end.
DeleteAHT - See the gap up in Feb? Wonder if that will close and mark the end of this bout of weakness? AHP is externally managed by AHT so this might be root cause of weakness PERHAPS. Might be AHT buys out AHP as rates are so low it kinda makes sense?
ReplyDeleteAHT just spun AHP out last year as they felt they weren't getting the valuation deserved for such high quality assets. It basically is all their high rev-per-room hotels and these types of hotels generally trade at a premium valuation. So, the hope is this happens and AHT still owns 20% so this will get reflected in their price as well
DeleteJNK - This one has come off quite a bit, that means corporate rates have lifted, right? Seems like that should be expected and perfectly normal, no?
ReplyDeleteETP - Still ripping higher, KCAP sitting on the bench today.
ReplyDeleteBack in UGAZ with a smaller position at $16.07
ReplyDeleteAdded to a bigger position...at $16.11
DeleteALDW - Wow, WTF is this about?
ReplyDeleteYELP - This must be a support area, gonna wait and see if it fails.
ReplyDeleteI originally thought YELP would hit $68 when it first dropped to $76 a couple of weeks ago. Should have listened to myself...I bought at $75.xx and sold at $72 I believe.
DeleteThe internals today aren't all that strong. Makes me think it was the right move to get back into SPXS.
ReplyDeleteCVEO - So can't convert to REIT b/c most of operations are out of country and thus converting to REIT has no effect. Exercise in futility. Thus, stock price drops 50%, say what? Is market stupid enough to not know conversion makes no sense?
ReplyDeleteprice to sales is same as AHP, trades near book like AHP, provides services to growing oil industry.... Help me out, why shouldn't this interest me?
AWAY - Up, up, and away! :)
ReplyDelete“Temperatures may be below normal in parts of the central U.S. from Oct. 4 through Oct. 13, according to MDA Weather Services in Gaithersburg, Maryland. Gas stockpiles were 13 percent below the five-year average in the week ended Sept. 19, the biggest deficit for the time of year since 2005. “
ReplyDelete“With just six weeks left of the injection season, there is little doubt that the industry will transition into the winter with a sizable year-on-year storage deficit,” Teri Viswanath, director of commodities of strategy at BNP Paribas SA in New York, said in a note to clients."
Traders are getting antsy...their dip buying isn't working. I sense another drop is coming soon...maybe late in the week?
ReplyDeleteBXE - Have tried to comprehend the PR, seems like selling forward in return for bringing development forward. Doesn't make me puke. Gagging on this air pocket though, most likely China data impacting oil I guess? So umm, China awaits US open to release data?
ReplyDeleteA soothing tune in case the hairs on your neck and back are ruffled: http://sixties60s.com/1967/radio/Up%20Up%20And%20Away.mp3
CVEO also warned about Q4 in the announcement, so this is weighing on the stock. So, there are a lot of arb guys getting out since the REIT didn't happen. Plus, you've got a warning and oil tanking today (so less business).
ReplyDeleteProbably it will be a good buy soon. Hard to tell when the selling is done though and how many people have to get out.
Today's trading seems really weak to me given
Delete(1) its the last day of the quarter and there's usually positioning that occurs this day that keeps the market up
(2) the market is already oversold
I am getting the sense that a lot of traders are still buying dips. There are a lot of momentum names barely holding support. I think traders will give up soon and there will be a flush coming. I'm getting excited about this potential opportunity.
Look at the flushes that occurred in the shippers. Obviously this has to do with other factors but I wouldn't be shocked to see this on a smaller scale across a lot of sectors. I'm thinking odds are increasing we are about to see our 8 to 13% correction.
DeleteThen again its definitely a positive to see a day like the casinos are seeing. that's a good sign.
Deletethose casino stocks are still stuck in significant downtrends though so this could just be short covering...
DeleteOkay, I missed the earnings warning and yes, perhaps it will take some time for the fallout to stabilize.
DeleteUPS/FDX might also need to come off, it would be cool if we can nail the timing.
This feels a bit like the type of market we had going into the May flash crash. For some reason, I remember vividly how heavy that market felt leading up to the flash crash.
Delete1985, what happened that year? Dunno as I wasn't watching markets and probably wouldn't recall if I had but I'm looking at this chart:
ReplyDeletehttp://4.bp.blogspot.com/-H6UKuXkLqFg/VCl2pyIRPQI/AAAAAAAAPUk/rmLCEuhXzOg/s1600/spx%2B9-29.JPG
AHT's spinoff might have everyone wondering WTF is this dumping? So at some point after those assets are grossly mispriced by the market someone can come along with a low rate corporate loan and take it private.
ReplyDeleteAA - Neutral -> Buy My broker's such a turd sometimes.
ReplyDeleteCENX - Also upgraded to buy. I don't get it with aluminum man, like a giant tower to the moon is being constructed all of aluminum. Or maybe AAPL's next iphone will be all aluminum since it bends so nicely?
ReplyDeleteOIBR - When does softbank buy this puppy?
ReplyDeleteFCX - neutral -> Buy. Okay, finally one that hasn't double topped.
ReplyDeleteMO - This one's a change to buy as well, BTW, emerging markets smoke a lot still I guess.
UGA - Fairly large quantity of shares on the ask. Did TSLA announce the new free energy vehicle?
ReplyDeleteHeld on to 1/4 of my UGAZ shares. Just sitting in cash and waiting...hoping we get a sharp short covering rally in the next couple of days to reload shorts.
ReplyDeleteAGCO - Insider added $14M
ReplyDeleteWPRT- A good example of a weak assgas.
ReplyDeleteI guess it's cheap gasoline and diesel as opposed to cheap natty?
DeleteCLNE - Wow, got clobbered too, even worse.
DeleteCP- WPRT is down another 20% after hours.
DeleteNot too surprised really, Bosch, Denso, Seimens, Rochester all make fuel injectors. I probably left a few off the list?
DeleteTKMR - There it is.
ReplyDeletePNRA - Not sure but this is one I've been trying to keep tabs on. Looks like it's moving. I have to think you guys already saw this but prefer natty producers and shipping but thought it might be worth mention.
ReplyDeleteBXE - Insider bought at C$6.88 today
ReplyDeleteUS is approaching 26 year low for oil imports?
ReplyDeleteWhy should $US fall when the US is nearing a 26 year low for importing oil and where's that 250,000 silver forecast now?
ReplyDeleteTA - Flag failed, just as suspected.
ReplyDeleteGPRO - Market cap is $12B, larger than TXT's $10B
ReplyDeleteIWB vs IWM - Pretty large discrepancy.
ReplyDeleteAccording to this guy, charts are lining up well for nat gas:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.athrasher.com/natural-gas-break/
With my luck tax loss selling will keep BXE moving down until the run for gas is done. :)
DeleteHulbert looking for a bounce based on strong Nasdaq bearishness. It does seem to line up pretty well with market bottoms, but only has 2 years in the chart which was during a strong bullish time, so may not identify larger corrections.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/wait-for-one-more-bounce-in-stocks-before-a-broad-decline-2014-09-30?link=MW_Nav_NV
Looks like we might get the sharp pullback no one is expecting anymore.
ReplyDeleteOnly thing I've been buying today is UGAZ. Otherwise completely in cash.
DeleteAdded to my existing position around $16.2. Will add more if it gets down to $15.9ish. As long as Natty stays above $4.10 I will stay long it.
Could be. Usually the first of the month is a good time with the mutual fund and IRA inflows.
DeleteEveryone says to expect a 10% pullback at any time and to be ready to buy it. So more small pullbacks or a really big one should be what we get.
by the way, i've only been using two things to buy natty:
Delete(1) COT report (spec longs at highest short position i've ever seen which is almost always an excellent contrarian indicator)
(2) technicals
Just prior to this latest turn MACD was trending down for 29 weeks which is one of the longest I could find in a period where prices were generally rising.
IWM has tested this level three times near here looks like. No such thing as triple bottom?
DeleteOn the bat phone to MOG.
ReplyDeleteAsk him about CIE
Delete10 seconds ago I almost bought BALT @ 4.00. It's 3.90 now.
ReplyDeleteholy shit! mgmt might have the dubious honor of bankrupting two companies!
Deletethis is an excellent reminder to never marry a position...at least in the positions most of us trade.
DeleteAUMN management is right there with them.
DeleteBB - As of yesterday I was still seeing tons of traders unwilling to throw in the towel and looking to buy dips. Now is as good of a time as any to begin a 8 to 12% pullback.
ReplyDeleteIt's paid to buy the 3-5% dips for almost 3 years now, so you know traders will try it again. One of these times it won't work and maybe this is it. Who knows, but it does seem to be setting up that the time it doesn't work, we will get a swift pullback as the traders will just dump positions.
Deleteyeah i think this is the time. i definitely wouldn't be adding to anything yet. but i'm making my list.
DeleteMy best guess if we have another 2-3 weeks of selling. with a bounce mixed in coming sometime fairly soon. maybe selling today and tomorrow then a bounce to mid week next week, then more selling. If so the bounce would fail at SPX 1,960ish. Basically right below where the market had support for the past 3 days...ie support becomes resistance.
DeleteGOOGL is still holding in well. I love that on a panic selloff
ReplyDeleteAdded some more UGAZ at $16.1. I'm keeping a position so long as natty holds 4.10
ReplyDeleteSRTY - I guess this one could go to $48 at least before too long.
ReplyDeleteBXE - OMG it's green, this is just blowing me away.
ReplyDeleteWhat's the ticker for the E&P etf?
DeletePOE and XOP are two, notice the H&S formation on these. I like watching ETP and EPD climb, LOL
DeleteYELP - Sure seems overdone. Need to look at big chart.
ReplyDeleteI think so too to a certain extent. Only issue I have with most of these momentum names is you really can't justify the current valuation of them. You need significant growth for several years to get them to be on the upper end of a reasonable valuation. Not saying that won't happen but the majority of them have further to fall. Trading them is basically betting that momentum will continue. Otherwise I think it's important to consider the prior major areas of support as a trading entry. So for YELP maybe the low $50's? I don't think YELP should have fallen this far. It's prob due for a bounce but I think odds are increasing that it goes back to $50ish
DeleteYep, good points.
DeleteOf all of the "small" momentum names I like the fundamentals of Z the best. I think it has the best shot against the big dogs like GOOGL. Not sure when that would be buyable though. Would be looking for a 30 reading on the weekly RSI_EMA to get me interested.
DeleteAlright, dip buyers should be running out of cash about now... I'm counting on selling for the remainder of today at least. Expected more from TKMR, considering there aren't many places to flock to with such a compelling news story. Maybe they don't really have a solid cure and it's only untested. What are the results of CDC's testing, need to find out but seems like closed lips.
ReplyDeleteRussia cut natural gas supplies to European Union member Slovakia by 50% Wednesday, Moscow's latest and most significant reduction in energy supplies to an EU country that is helping Ukraine build gas supplies ahead of winter.
ReplyDeleteSlovakia's prime minister said the supply cut is a politically driven message to the EU as it negotiates fragile gas talks between Moscow and Kiev .
"What's interesting in the case is that it isn't about a lack of gas, but this is about playing with gas supplies as an instrument of political posturing," Robert Fico said Wednesday.
Slovakia this year began supplying natural gas to its eastern neighbor as an act of solidarity after Russia's OAO Gazprom stopped supplying Ukraine with gas in June amid a price dispute and the broader conflicts between the two countries.
Mr. Fico said Slovakia will "fulfill its commitments" to supply Ukraine with the fuel.
Eustream, the Slovak gas pipeline operator, Wednesday said its supplies to Ukraine were taking place without interruption.
Gazprom earlier reduced gas flows to Slovakia and Austria , as well as to Poland , which also is supplying Ukraine with gas.
Hungary , which had been supplying gas to Ukraine , last week halted all gas shipments there, leaving Slovakia and Poland as Ukraine's lone suppliers.
Hungary Wednesday said it is receiving all contracted supplies of gas from Russia .
The fall in supplies to the EU states comes as Russia and Ukraine have been unable to agree on terms to resume gas flows to the former Soviet country.
Last Friday the two sides agreed to a tentative deal brokered by European Commissioner for Energy Günther Oettinger, but Moscow and Kiev haven't agreed on details and the compact remains on ice as the winter heating season approaches.
As of Sept. 30 , Ukraine's underground gas storage facilities were only at 52% of capacity, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe, a Brussels -based trade group. Ukraine faces a gas shortage if supplies cannot be resumed, analysts have said.
To cope domestically with the fall in gas supplies, Slovakia's natural gas import and distribution company SPP AS said that it has made an "extraordinary purchase" of gas on the spot market from alternative suppliers. The volume it acquired is sufficient to cover the current daily consumption of its customer base, while also enabling the country to continue filling its underground storage facilities, the company said.
Slovakia's storage facilities were at 95% of capacity on Tuesday.
SPP said it would continue injecting gas into the underground storage units until the end of October and Slovak households and businesses will continue to receive all gas needed.
Should gas supplies to Slovakia remain reduced or even stop, SPP said it has adopted measures enabling it to source gas from Austria , the Czech Republic and Germany .
Mr. Fico said he doesn't believe Russia will completely halt gas supplies to the EU country.
North America to the rescue? Fashionably late, of course.
DeleteSPWR/SOL - Okay, so if the global warming issue is the serious play and even natty is dead then why wouldn't the solars be rocking? Who owns the carbon rights for the Amazon, Buildaburgers?
ReplyDeleteLOL, I'm gonna be cutting down trees if I don't start get some carbon credits for them, there are thousands of trees here on this property.
ReplyDeleteBXE - $4.20, I guess
ReplyDeleteTOF,
ReplyDeleteThe other thing is earnings reporting starts next Tuesday with AA. I think earnings season will generally be good. There may be a few misses due the higher dollar affecting overseas earnings, but other than that, expectations are low and show be easily beatable. This may stop the decline as well. It has many other quarters recently.
Yeah. I think we could see a rebound in the early part of next week.
DeleteLooks like I got stopped out of UGAZ at $15.8. Oh well, worth a try.
ReplyDeleteBack in UGAZ at $15.37
ReplyDeleteadded at 14.95. keeping a short leash on this. market is out to get everything.
DeleteInterestingly, for the stocks I follow, they are not getting hit as hard as they were last week. I think it is because they are getting too cheap and the investor types are stepping in at these prices.
DeleteI don't follow any of the high-flier stocks, so not sure how they are doing today.
I sold UGAZ at $15.05.
DeleteBB - I hear ya on valuation but my guess is these "bounces" will be sold into. GM is up today but do you think it lasts if the market goes 10% lower? Tough call. I look at a stock like BID and it is still having trouble hold gains. Would be nice to see at least a few higher lows over a multi month time frame in that stock to suggest to me we're out of the woods. Not wise to read too much into any single stock but that one I think mirrors our economy pretty well.
NWLI - Half a mind to load some of this one but will pass on the opportunity.
ReplyDeleteAnother -0.20 cent day. You guys still intend on hanging onto this one?
ReplyDelete(a) DJIA -250 (-1.4%).
ReplyDelete(b) EEM -1.8%. Closing my position for a minor loss.
(c) Bonds are rallying. TLT (long bond) +2%. TIPS +0.8%.
(d) Gold +5/oz. GDX (major miners) +0.5%. GDXJ (juniors) +1.5%.
EWZ (Brazil) now -23%! (no typo) off its YTD high (which occurred on September 3).
FXI (China) -12% off its YTD high.
Sure, the markets could (and until today, I thought they would) re-challenge their September highs fairly quickly. But I'm no hero. As I see it, today's dive in the US indexes slices through a number of support levels (turning them into resistance levels). Emerging markets, for one, are no longer in an uptrend. I plan to take gains on miners + TIPS (along with a small loss on EEM), and retreat to cash. There's no way to know if a 'crash' is imminent (I doubt it), but in the event no asset classes save cash will be spared. I also plan to close my small position in HDGE (+1.5% today) to make it a clean slate. Btw, most crashes occur from 'oversold' conditions, not from all-time highs. Emerging markets are certainly oversold at this point. On the other hand, today may be the 'washout' low that clears markets for takeoff on Thursday or Friday. I'm not smart enough to know, and I'm happy with my YTD performance.
Remember the last bear market? Try to have stop losses in mind. It's relatively manageable to be down a few percent. Don't underestimate the pain of being down -25% (which is exactly where investors in Brazil find themselves today, less than a month from the year's high).
I bet it takes at least a month for the FED to realize Brazil has slipped down the tubes. Seemed it was several months they kept saying the economy was strong all the while having secret meetings with WS bankers who were in panic mode behind closed doors.
DeleteDB - What a slow motion slide, like boiling a pot of frogs.
ReplyDeleteMOG's comment... "I have no idea".
ReplyDeleteOkay, sort of encouraging....
DeletePicked up some CYBR into the close today.
ReplyDelete