Friday, October 10, 2014

10/10/14 Don't Stop

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8arvEzHsA8

(a) GDX (miners) dropped as much as -2% early in the morning session. GDXJ (juniors) dropped as much as -3%. Note, however, that the morning sell-off never approached Wednesday's capitulatory lows. I added positions in GDX and GDXJ.  Following a brutal 2-year bear market, I believe the sector will finally launch. Positions taken today may pay off well.
(b) US indexes are struggling.
(c) Australia closed off -2%. Hong Kong off -1.9%. German DAX -2.4%. Euro Stoxx 50 -1.7%. Brazil's Ibovespa -2.1%.

This is not a healthy market! However, I'm entertaining positions in Emerging Markets and/or Europe at the close for a Monday bounce.

Market declines can be painful, and in my opinion declines in the US have only begun. On the other hand, investors (and hence markets) are inherently 'optimistic' and never stop thinking about tomorrow.

129 comments:

  1. CP,

    re CP, it has tripled the last couple of years since Ackman got involved and has gone being from one of the lowest valued rails to one of the highest. It still has characteristics which mean it should not be valued this high (many tracks through snowy mountains which are expensive in the winter). I think what happenned is a lot of the momentum guys got on board because it was doing so well, so a pullback is expected.

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    Replies
    1. Good thinking, thx. upgraded by my broker about the same day it began rolling over. but theme makes sense, probably priced in.

      Delete
  2. Semis? SMH -5%. Could be a buy here.

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    Replies
    1. If this keeps up, you can get INTC. I guess by now they've mapped out a good bit of the future direction and are working product design. Would be interesting to know what type of production samples are being run currently.

      Some big changes coming I'll bet, instead pulling your hair out progressively shrinking the old same boring stuff transfer that to something competitive..

      Delete
  3. Sold ERX at $77.1, HCLP at $42.6 and EMES at $85.3

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  4. XLF - Barely scathed, when does this puppy lead as opposed to follow?

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    Replies
    1. Probably because the financials are amoung the cheapest in the market, so hard to get them down compared to most other industries.

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    2. Perhaps. Looks like I shoulda bought BAC a few months ago.

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  5. Added another third to AEG.

    Again, good to own at this price and just adding to various stocks as this correction proceeds.

    I really think it is undervalued mainly because it is considered a European insurer, even though 70% of its business is in the US through TransAmerica. It is much cheaper than the equivalent US insurers and, while it had problems in the financial crisis by being too aggressive, they have been dealt with and the valuation should move up as they continue to execute.

    Plus, I really do believe rates rise at some point (thought they would have a long time ago) and this will be a tailwind when it happens.

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  6. So, if we assume ECB stimulation will eventually be approved by Bundesbank then what will be the effect to rates in Europe, will it be a sell the news event and US rates will drop as a result? Surely US rates must be attractive in comparison?

    Just thinking out loud, attempting to connect the dots... Is there a big picture beginning to form?

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  7. NSPH - Even larger gain today than Ebola plays........?

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  8. 10/8 - "Soros Picks Nanosphere, NII Holdings Rebound Midday at TheStreet"

    Say what????!!!!???

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    Replies
    1. I find that hard to believe.

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    2. No kidding. Says he bought in 2nd Q? Maybe some other Soros?

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  9. (a) GDX ends the day -2%. Still holding all positions, as I believe it's the one sector most likely to launch next week.
    (b) I passed on Emerging Markets and Europe, despite the closing sell-off which was quite orderly with no evidence of panic. A capitulatory drop Monday morning would present a better set-up. EEM closed down -2.17%, VGK (Europe) -1.37%, EWZ (Brazil) -4.41%. DJIA -0.69%, SPX -1.15%, NDQ -2.34% (which included a notable -6.54% decline in semiconductors [SMH] - Intel itself pulled back -5.09%).
    (c) The Dow is now negative for the year, closing today @ 16544 (versus 16577 last December 31).

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    Replies
    1. Would not be surprised to see some panic Monday morning after people start reading about the DOW being negative for the year and just thinking they want to get out.

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  10. $RUT - Only about another 100pts to go till the 942 target is reached. Hang in there and buckle up for safety! :)

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  11. Now I'm beginning to understand why this season's called "Fall"

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  12. http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/?iid=H_INV_QL

    Really? That's hard to believe.

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  13. Brad, any thoughts on TEF? They seem to be turning around their Southern American businesss and Spain economy getting better, but be interested in the view of someone there.

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  14. Hey folks! I see that things are getting fun again in the market. :) In case you are trying to figure out which way the crowd is leaning, here is the heading of an e-mail I got today from Zack Investment Management (for some reason I made it into their e-mailing list):

    "8 Reasons to Buy the Dip"

    Here is an excerpt from that e-mail:

    "Ultimately though, the fear of an economic slowdown is overblown. As a result, the recent selling in the market is an opportunity to increase equity exposure. Here's why:Global weakness in GDP growth will likely keep interest rates low. If the U.S. economy continues to expand, the combination of a low interest rate environment with growing corporate earnings will push stocks higher over the next twelve months."

    Here is what Hussman has to say about it:

    “Abrupt market weakness is generally the result of low risk premiums being pressed higher. There need not be any collapse in earnings for a deep market decline to occur. The stock market dropped by half in 1973-74 even while S&P 500 earnings grew by over 50%. The 1987 crash was associated with no loss in earnings. Fundamentals don't have to change overnight. There is in fact zero correlation between year-over-year changes in earnings and year-over-year changes in the S&P 500. Rather, low and expanding risk premiums are at the root of nearly every abrupt market loss."

    FD: I am still holding my ill-timed purchase of TVIX since mid-May. Due to its decaying property, it is still about 25% below my purchase price. But I suspect it will soon get above that price. :) It took much longer for the volatility to explode than I thought. But then, the totally unreasonable recent market highs (in the face of an imminent end of QE), allowed me to buy a decent amount of June 2015 puts on QQQ cheap, while QQQ was around 98 and the VIX was still around 12. So even if I only break even on my TVIX purchase, I will probably do very well on my QQQ puts, which I'll try holding until next summer as a hedge against my employer-granted stock options that will vest next summer...

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    1. Hi David,

      An interesting time in the markets for sure. I'm really unclear as to what the market will do over the next while (although a short term bounce at least would make sense given how far and fast we've fallen), but I feel pretty confident the market will be higher a year from now.

      Things just generally are getting better in line with what you'd expect from an improving economy, there are very few excesses in the system, valuations for the most part are reasonable. Europe is having some trouble, but I believe they will do what is necessary to get things back on track.

      Delete
  15. NSPH - 200,k shares traded +18% premarket. A trick?

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  16. David- Glad to see you're alive and well!

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  17. If I'd not second guessed myself at Friday's close (going long Emerging Markets + Europe), I'd be looking at a pretty good open.

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  18. The way ICPT is trading makes me think there is bad news coming...

    Glad I sold share most last week.

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  19. Brazil bounces back +4%? Unbelievable.

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  20. Replies
    1. Thanks CP. Turkey day for us today, plus Oktoberfest in my town (Kitchener), so heading out for family day soon. Nothing like beer in arena for lunch - haha!

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  21. Are we having fun? I'm quite disoriented, myself.

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    Replies
    1. Tough market. A lot of sentiment type indicators show we should bounce, but they didn't really work well in showing when we should go down during the last couple years, so wouldn't be a big surprise if they didn't work the other way.

      I still think the best approach is to just slowly buy into good stocks at low prices as the market declines, so you have exposure for the bounce whenever it does come.

      Delete
  22. Looks like the Saudi's may be starting a price war with the frackers and alternative energy providers:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-28/alwaleed-says-saudi-arabia-seeks-70-to-80-oil-to-preserve-sales-to-west.html

    This will be very interesting. I think the Saudi's need reasonable oil prices to hold their kingdom together, so this may be more talk then action, but if anyone can do this, it is the Saudi's.

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    Replies
    1. The war has been ongoing since the OPEC meeting where the Saudi's stormed out. No arguing the impact, down isn't up.

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  23. Another thing I've been doing recently is slowly scaling into PNPFF -- at $0.28, at $0.22, and now I have an open buy limit order at $0.15. After my fiasco with AUMN, I will now stick to diversified funds. At the current price of $0.20, PNPFF can easily double at the first hint of a rebound in the PM sector, so no need to play with individual companies...

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  24. NSPH - Wow, sure you guys haven't heard something positive on this one?

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    Replies
    1. They got clearance for another test. Nothing to do with ebola of course.

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    2. Yeah, I guess I'm wondering though if there isn't an opportunity related to rapid detection/isolation of ebola. Such capability could save many lives quickly as opposed to waiting 20days to discover a patient is contagious and has contaminated 100 others. Diseases like ebola has to be proactively gotten ahead of, not followed up on in retrospect.

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  25. BXE, etc. - I really had no idea of how insanely overpriced the energy sector was, completely underestimated this.

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  26. Not only do Germans habitually hike the Alps commando style, Bulgaria is joining them:

    Bulgaria National Military Forces to Acquire 10 Additional Textron Systems COMMANDO(TM) Armored Vehicles

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  27. "I feel pretty confident the market will be higher a year from now. Things just generally are getting better in line with what you'd expect from an improving economy, there are very few excesses in the system, valuations for the most part are reasonable."

    BB, the history (as Hussman has pointed out) shows that terrible market crashes can occur in an improving economy and during a growth period in stock earnings. If the market got WAY ahead of itself despite the slowly improving fundamentals, then it can just as easily come back down while the fundamentals keep slowly improving... QE obviously had a huge impact on the market -- as more cash was injected into the system by the Fed, the prices of risky assets HAD to go up so as to keep the (aggregate) investors indifferent between holding that cash and buying risky assets. Now that QE is ending, this mechanism will stop -- don't you think a big adjustment should take place in the market, if this mechanism was so important previously?

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  28. Volatility returns to the markets, along with no lack of head fakes.

    (a) EEM currently +2%. EWZ (Brazil) regains all of Friday's losses and then some, +6.9%. A missed opp for me.
    (b) VGK (Europe) +0.64%.
    (c) US indexes not doing as well, with the DJIA currently off -80 points and the SPX -0.74% to 1892.
    (d) Miners outperforming. GDX up +2.4% (as much as +4.8% earlier in the day). GDXJ (juniors) +3% (as much as +5.2% earlier).

    Unless things change in the final half hour I plan to hold miners, add a small 'long' position in the SPX and/or IWM (Russell 2000) + a small 'short' in Emerging Markets.

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    Replies
    1. I'm waiting until Russell 2000 reaches the 942 target.

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    2. Things have changed. DJIA now -200, SPX -1.4% to 1879. EEM @ +1.2% no longer an attractive 'short.' VGK (Europe) now just +0.14%.

      Opening a small position in RYTNX (Rydex 2x SPX) at the close, although cognizant of the possibility of further declines tomorrow.

      Miners GDX/GDXJ still acting well @+2.1%/+3.15%.

      Delete
  29. October looks like a repeat of September. With the benefit of tempered upside expectation.

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  30. SPX - Only off 30 points, suggesting dip buyers are still in there pulling taffy.

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  31. QQQ closed below its August lows. I don't see how it can avoid testing the March highs around 90.

    I just placed a sell limit order at $6 for my TVIX, which I purchased at $5.22. VIX futures are still in backwardation, which means that people still have not accepted the fact that volatility is here to stay.

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  32. Junk Bonds (HYG) made a new 52-week low today, which means that the yields are skyrocketing. Now, another bit of history (via Hussman):

    “There is one particular syndrome of conditions after which stocks have reliably suffered major, generally abrupt losses, without any historical counter-examples. This syndrome features a combination of overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions in an environment of upward pressure on yields or risk spreads."

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  33. Hey fellas hope ur doing well. Drove up to pescadero this weekend for a good friends wedding. Great weekend.

    Still holding lake and apt and spxs and have 40% cash. I think we are 50% thru a mini crash

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  34. ENPH- I'll consider the gap closed.

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  35. David, hussman has the absolute worst 1 year record of all mutual funds out there. Don't waste your time listening to him. Even if he is right at some point, the lost opportunity cost is not worth it.

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  36. David, re QE, I think its impact was very minor. If it was, why would European rates, where they had no QE, be lower than the US? I think the reality is rates were low because of a scarcity of safe assets and people chased whatever they could and rates would have been very, very low as they are now regardless.

    I agree that there is a risk to the market as QE ends and that 1) there might be an unexpected black swan type even which causes major problems or (2) traders may use it to sell in which case it becomes a buying opportunity or (3) most likely, it turns out not to be a big deal and the market trundles along making significantly higher highs over the next year

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  37. Couple of 'flash crash' trades today. NYSE canceling some trades. We might be close.

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  38. DryShips (NASDAQ:DRYS) shares plunged 21% today after the shipping company announced the withdrawal of its public offering of $700M in senior secured notes; DRYS said it continues to work toward refinancing the notes, and says it signed a firm commitment for a bridge facility of up to $350M.
    Imperial Capital also downgraded DRYS to Underperform, and considers a downside-case scenario where DRYS could launch a heavily dilutive capital raise through placing a convertible feature or attached warrants on new notes being contemplated and/or a secondary issuance of equity.
    Additionally, the market value of its 78.3M Ocean Rig UDW (NASDAQ:ORIG) shares continues to decline - down 50% in just the past month - and the dry-shipping market remains soft as rates have been falling due to oversupply of the global fleet along with weaker than expected demand.

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  39. $RUT - ema's have rolled over on the weekly. I think it's time to go short.

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  40. "$CPC launches higher today to levels not seen since 2011 and 2012 when notable market bottoms were placed; the 1.53 level shows very strong and rampant fear in markets."

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  41. Mark- Re 'flash crashes:' Which stocks were you referring to?

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  42. Small caps (IWM) down less than large caps yesterday and up more pre-market this morning. May be a sign market is done going down. Earnings out this morning seem to be helping.

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  43. Replies
    1. Vaccine "effective" in animals
      http://www.cnbc.com/id/102051473?__source=yahoo%7cfinance%7cheadline%7cheadline%7cstory&par=yahoo&doc=102051473

      Delete
  44. ENPH - Still @ $10
    APWR - How about this one? Pretty much beat up now.

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  45. $RUT - This is the chart I'm referring to concerning the ema's having rolled over:
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$RUT&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p21808968243

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  46. UCO - Wow, down strongly, we're swimming in oil.

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  47. AGCO - Weren't agriculture equipment stocks downgraded recently? I dunno but will ebola have some effect on global agricultural trade? Seems unlikely to me. Sell,sell, sell = Buy... Remember that.

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  48. JONE - Is that a ton of debt I see? Not that it matters b/c NOR is the same way. But if rates lift strongly like some say will happen how do projects get financed?

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  49. NSPH. Yep. Damn, look at NOG.

    2nd, I'll post the tickers when I get back.

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    Replies
    1. I say big NOPE, as we suspected. The trade was a greater fool trade though, so in that respect it worked b/c yesterday it was up almost 90% at one point.

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    2. Agreed. It will sink all the way back to .50.

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    3. It's a story of a well to do woman with a dream to help underprivileged children and orphans in undeveloped countries.

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  50. Muted action reminds me of the calm before the storm

    Recommended Betamax movie of the week: "Wrong Turn"

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  51. Replies
    1. Oh yeah, BAS. I noticed insider selling so stayed away. Kinda surprised, with all the activity in West Tx., this one shouldn't crash. But then again neither should CXO.

      I have to ask, what the hell is going on? MOG doesn't seem to know and that's fair enuff. Action makes me think the pipeline is going to be approved or something big like that is happening. (Ebola induced global market hiccup maybe?) Recall oinker flu elicited a pukefest too.

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  52. US and foreign indexes opened strong, now struggling to remain green. Taking RYTNX off at the 1030 window for minimal gains.

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    Replies
    1. What happened to energy and why doesn't MOG know about it? Something to do with Aramco or what?

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  53. TBT - Bottom edge of well defined channel. So something's feels like it's being stretched....... Are T's about to go over a cliff and scare the hell out of everybody?

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  54. OGZPY - World's most underpriced oil company (Gazprom).

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  55. "Russia cancels its bond auction scheduled for tomorrow. The 10-year yield is up to 9.9% the highest since 2009."

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  56. I ended up selling off LAKE / APT today at $28.5 avg and $9.6 avg pre market. Also sold SPXS at $27.7. I took a big position in the same energy stocks I bought last week (SLCA, EMES, HCLP, ERX) but I'm barely up. I may end up taking them off

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    Replies
    1. The issue with the energy stocks and the market in general is there seems to be more downside momentum. I still think a lot of people were hiding in the entire energy space and they're being forced to liquidate positions. If you have a few month time horizon it does seem like this is an excellent entry for these sands companies. HCLP and EMES have pretty large dividends which is part of why I like them. I figured the dividend would provide some support for them but not yet.

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    2. Doesn't sound too bullish if people were hiding from something, the Borg will seek them out for destruction. Wonder what people might've been hiding from?

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  57. My main focus is on XLU. That is on the verge of making new highs while the market has broken down. I think if we get a throw back rally here soon without making new highs and then turning down while XLU breaks out to new highs then we have classic signs in place of a major intermediate term / long term top.

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    Replies
    1. This is a great time to be a momo player, something like SPWR might rally hard while awaiting the impending market swoon?

      The Catch-22:
      Some think the long end of T's is about to take a dive(rates go up) and gold will rally. One part of that might be right and looking at TBT seems it could be putting in lows but rates in Europe are no bargain compared to US rates IMO and Asia seems to be US "T" buyers. If that's the case then Asia must feel the US and Euro consumers are still on strike.

      We might even see anti-euro sentiment through Europe's periphery, as Germany insists on holding them accountable at all cost?

      Delete
  58. AGCO - Someone certainly has taken their foot off AGCO's throat today.

    BXE - Alright, I'm all strapped in, in preparation for my daily $0.10 spanking. (Glances at watch, taps toe on ground... 6...5...4...3....2....)

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  59. OIBR - Here comes the 90% rally, I can feel it.

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  60. BXE - Nice, there's the customary dime. Blinked and missed the brief swoon to $4.97... Yep, the trend is in locked place for sure so buckle up for $4.4x 'cause here we come........

    What a mess.

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  61. Quite the crushing in energy stocks. IEA says lower worldwide demand and the Saudi's say we're not cutting production and oil down another 4%. Small cap energy stocks down average of 46% from their 52 week highs.

    Not fun, but hard to see selling at this time makes any sense.

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    Replies
    1. We can get TLM 50% cheaper than Icahn did!

      Delete
    2. Mark, we should be thinking about past winners that will remain economical at $80 oil. One big concern should be debt, perhaps? US companies seem to have considerably more of it than Canadian companies just as they need to raise capital for drilling new wells in the face of Aramco's oil price war.

      AMLP is kind of interesting from the perspective of Canadian oil exportation in the face of the canceled pipeline due to the owner of BNX being a special interest recipient of WDC "tree hugger" anti-carbon pollution policies.

      If I understand correctly, AMLP contains some important Canadian companies working to find ways of exporting Canadian oil to Asia, so we might want to investigate the internals while waiting?

      Delete
    3. AMLP- I'll look at it but dealing with the taxes is a bitch.

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    4. Aren't the taxes handled by software?

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    5. But that could be all wrong, Bay Street is very adept at making a shit pile smell just like a rose for an incredibly long period of time.

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  62. OPEC Price War - "40% of the tight oil production in the United States would become uneconomical if prices drop below $80."

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  63. (a) RYTNX closed the 1030 est window up +0.8%, much better than expected (often difficult to predict how leveraged funds will perform intraday). The SPX went on to rally as much as +1.3% (the equivalent of +2.6% for RYTNX). Now, however, the indexes are pulling back (US indexes in the red, EEM barely green), and I no longer need to second-guess taking gains earlier.
    (b) I plan to take gains on the miners at the close. GDX currently +1.47%. Sure, miners could easily take off tomorrow (I place the odds at 65%). But they could just as easily retrace to test recent lows, and I'm in no mood to see that happen even given low odds.
    (c) In the long term, it's minimizing losses (and not maximizing gains) that wins the game.

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  64. BXE - Seems the rate of descent has accelerated.

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  65. Uh oh, what happened to NOR and AA? I guess AA needs to find support soon and begin retaining some therapeutic gains or else breaking through $14 and crashing lower will classify it as yet another market P&D scam?

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  66. OBIR - There ya go, we missed it though.

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  67. Nice outperformance by the small caps again today. Not sure if it means anything, but since they led on the downside, it makes some sense they could lead on the bounce back.

    Almost bought a US regional bank today, but held off to just give it some more time to see where the broad market goes.

    Nice to see an honest fund guy (Birinyi) - "Our biggest concern is that we are not sure as to what is happening."

    http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/10/14/birinyi-not-even-sure-whats-going-on-with-stocks/

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    Replies
    1. There's a pretty good trader I follow that has been bullish for long time and kept saying he will start getting worried when the market drops for reasons unknown. I will have to check and see what he's saying now. I think there are plenty of reasons for this drop tho

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    2. I agree. Think across the globe how much crap is going on? Pretty much every country.

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    3. It sure does seem like we're going to get at least a small rally. Even if we're heading lower we first need to eradicate the bears and keep everyone from shorting.

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    4. There must be a reasonable explanation. Such as we've been anticipating a correction, for instance. Low oil prices must be considered helpful, we can see the airlines received some benefit today.

      Not sure about timing the presidential cycle but low energy prices are possibly part of that "stimulus"?

      Remember last election cycle, which sectors rallied?

      Delete
  68. Aramco - What does it imply when Saudi Arabia feels threatened by US oil producers to the point of lowering prices, since when has that ever happened and is it bound to be any different this time?

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  69. BTU - I think got a boost from the rail earnings this morning that mentioned their transport of coal was up 7%

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  70. This chart shows the $RUT resistance pretty clearly:
    http://www.peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/10.6_TF_W.jpg

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    Replies
    1. Really depends on ebola

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    2. Yep, if ebola disappeared we'd probably break up through the resistance.

      Seems blood transfusions from survivors might be the solution? Think about the medical equipment necessary for performing 10's of thousands of emergency transfusions?

      Delete
    3. If it gets to 10k per month think about the number of doctors needed. this is a really really big issue, much bigger than most people realize. its the reason i've been trading the ebola related companies. speaking of which, i bought back into LAKE and APT after hours at $20.4 and $7.2. I also bought some SPXS. I'm 67% cash. I understand the market is oversold but this ebola threat is one of the worst ones I've seen in my life. If its not controlled its definitely a potential black swan

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    4. I think you want to watch it, but don't know you want to put too much into it. Remember SARS a few years and how quickly it spread and how it was quickly put under control. Both SARS and Ebola are from other species, so humans are poorly equipped to fight it, and SARS was more contagious (though not as deadly), but they were still able to bring it under control quite quickly.

      I was also talking to a nurse friend over the weekend and he said the actual risks of Ebola are very, very small. Ebola was discovered in the 1970's and the person in Texas was the first person in America to have Ebola. Ebola is very difficult to pass on to someone else and it would take decades for it to migrate to an airborn transmission because of the type of virus it is.

      It is sad for the people in the affected countries, but bad things happen to people around the world (remember the Haiti earthquake that killed over 200,000), all the time without affecting the global economy or markets.

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    5. The other thing that I think could cause this chart to break to the upside would be if the Europeans implemented QE.

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    6. I checked SARS stats a week ago before investing in LAKE / APT just to confirm my thinking and it's no comparison to this outbreak. It's far far worse. The issues are the incubation period is a long time and it seems to be more contagious than people thought and deadlier than peoe thought. Perception is reality though and people will alter their travel plans if they're fearful. I think it's a bigger risk than you're thinking

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  71. Ebola - 10,000 case/wk projected soon, death rate is ~80%

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  72. Just did up my spreadsheets and still happy with the way the year is going. I was up 21% at the end of August, but have fallen back the last 2 months and now am up 14% YTD.

    My goals are:

    1. make money every year
    2. beat my personal benchmark (average TSX and S&P 500 in C$) but 10% a year on average

    My benchmark is up 7.1%, so looking like I have a reasonable chance of achieving both.

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    Replies
    1. Nice man. Given how many holdings you have that's hard to do so great job!

      Delete
    2. BB- That's great! I was just going to ask how you were holding up. Good job.

      Delete
  73. Replies
    1. My concern is how well does AHP hold up through an ebola outbreak? My basis on BXE is $8.31 so I can't allow myself to add to the misery of picking up another stock that's about to crash.

      Delete
  74. Replies
    1. Okay I'll bite, what? Just doing a little worse than BXE

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    2. Have you seen JONE? I dunno, can it catch up to BXE/BAS?

      Delete
  75. BALT - Did you guys notice today's gain?

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    Replies
    1. Yeah rumor has it the bankrupt Genko is going to buy them out. Makes perfect (non)sense to me!

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    2. Ha, too funny if that rumor was the cause. I don't see where DRYS updated BDI on their site so no telling what the BDI did today.

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  76. UNG - Dropped a lot today, so it's not just oil although oil was smacked a lot more. UNG has lost 26% UCO is down 40% If US oil production gets cut back then probably gas will be in short supply?

    Wonder, does the oil need the gas pressure for extracting? Thus if oil production falls due to low price then gas production might be in short supply?

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  77. Mark,

    the hotel stocks have have pretty good pullbacks. CP is right that Ebola is a big factor here and such a wildcard. When the SARS outbreak happened and we had cases in Toronto, the whole tourism industry got crushed.

    Right now, the US economy is picking up and the hotels are generating the best occupancies and rates in over 14 years, so doing well. Plus, as the consumer gets better, demand will also increase and the industry trade mags are saying it is hard to get financing for new hotels outside of rock solid markets like NYC and Miami, so good profitability should continue for quite a while.

    I personally don't think Ebola will be a major deal in North America and affect travel here, but as TOF said, it could be a lot bigger than I suspect.

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