I sold all of my LAKE at $15.5 avg.Used proceeds to buy PCRX at $94 avg.
Nicely done, tof.
Damn, I was just looking at LAKE yesterday. Good job.
Thanks man. I was getting a bit antsy, no doubt. Good to get back on the schneid...could use a rally in F, GM and PCRX though
Yeah, nice man, read your article yesterday but waited.Watch PRCX all the time, need to give it the three day rule here, for me. RSX picking up.Miners, my guess is that's its tax loss selling here. Still like MDW for spec and NEM is reversing somewhat today, but you could have said that last week.
Yeah its (PCRX) a tough one to buy on a knife catching day like this. Still think the desire for hospitals to move away from the horrible side effects of opioids toward a safer alternative like Exparel is a huge movement.
They're growing 130% year on year. Let's say they grow 80% next year. That means a run rate of about $400 Million in sales within a year. The company is "only" valued at 3 Billion or 7-8 times those sales. Margins are going to be pretty high at that level because they have a lot of fixed costs. This should be a cash cow within a year, generating $2.50 to $3.00 EPS. And if they can get the nerve block indication that should help top line a bit.
Added some more PCRX sub $90
So many people believe the Fed is behind the market's move. If we can get out of this next few weeks smoothly there should be a lot of chasing into year end.
Silver - Ouch, damn!
HDSN - Hmm, where does it stall?GEVO - OUCH!
JDST oh my god
JDST looks like a C&H, huh?
FIG management considering going private, unlike Tim Cook who went public.
LOL, read that 3x before it clicked!
Amazingly LAKE's Point and Figure price target went from $1 to $27 in one day. Must be stressful to be the manager of a company on death's door one day then sky high the next day.
PCRX - In @ $91.01, good size position.
Nice good luck. I ended up taking a pretty big position too. My avg is $93 now. This is a blockbuster drug man...$52 Million in sales last quarter is a $210 Million run rate. If they grow 100% next year that's $400 Million or more. Pharma companies pay 20-25X sales for fast growing pharma companies like this.
Oh, I was gonna flip this position but should keep it for a while (months)?
I usually flip positions...just pointing out that there is an inherent buyout opportunity which should provide support. If we get a rally in the next few days odds are I would sell a good chunk into it.
F / GM are holds in my opinion. Stocks like this you can catch on panic drops and sell within a few days / weeks.
Yep, was essentially thinking the same way.
JDSD - Holy c__p, look at all that volume July, Aug, Sept.... miners are screwed big time.
$1188 or so is the gold support that has to hold.
OGZPY - Moving up, folks!
Seeing some signs of cutbacks in the oil patch. More of these will come if oil stays low:Conoco to spend less in 2015, below $16 billion13:20 EDT Thursday, October 30, 2014Print this articleHOUSTON, Oct 30 (Reuters) - ConocoPhillips plans a capital budget below $16 billion next year and will defer spending on some of its less-developed areas, including the Permian Basin and Western Canada, if crude oil prices continue to slide, the company said on Thursday."Beginning in 2015 capital in our major projects begins to taper off," Ryan Lance, Conoco's chief executive officer told investors on a conference call. "We have significantly more flexibility of ramp up or down our capital as circumstances dictate."The planned budget cuts will not affect the company's ability to achieve its goal to grow production 3 percent to 5 percent per year, Conoco said.The year, the Houston company is on track to spend $16.7 billion.
I don't have much desire to play in that space right now. I still think it's a hugely cyclical industry. I did buy your FCAU. Hate myself for not buying yesterday pre market but oh well. If I read it right, Ferrari could be worth $9 to $13 Billion as a standalone entity. The entire FCAU is worth $13 Billion.
I can see staying away from energy. There is the possibility for non-economic behaviour by OPEC and the Saudi's, so that could mess things up, but if not, values are good. Definitely a hard call.
Re FCAU, Marchionne seems to have a good plan to unlock value through the sale of Ferarri and maybe Mazarati down the road, then growing market share through Jeep and Austin Martin (both global brands). Plus, I think the auto cycle has a long way to run for everyone.
Well, I'm officially an auto investor. That FCAU is the one with by far the biggest upside. I think those estimates from that article you posted yesterday is way too conservative:"We were surprised that Marchionne essentially committed in public to spin-off Ferrari to shareholders. He reiterated this to us at a private meeting, when he said “For anyone that’s lived through the last ten years, it would be inopportune to have this asset monetized when the true value lies in accessing the asset itself. Ferrari belongs to the Fiat shareholders.” Marchionne detailed how believed that given the long customer waiting lists and the deliberate intention to limit production in order to maintain brand exclusivity, he believed the brand’s true value shouldn’t be compared to a typical auto company because of the inherent economic opportunity available should the company expand production. He took what most sell-side analysts consider to be a fair, if high, multiple of cash-ﬂow of the company, 9-12x, and claimed that if Ferrari satisﬁed actual consumer demand, annual cash-ﬂow would be over €1 billion. Thus, voila, in his eyes, Ferrari is worth in excess of €10 billion. While perhaps this was an ambitious valuation to assign to an incomparable company, at a minimum Ferrari should be worth at least as much as the recent Aston Martin deal valuation, 9.9x EBITDA. Using our estimate of D&A at Ferrari (using a 7year life to PP&E), and therefore estimated EBITDA of roughly €640 million, Ferrari should receive at least a €6.4 billion valuation, or €5.7 billion net to Fiat shareholders (€4.57 per share). Together, with Maserati’s value detailed below, this would mean the luxury brands at Fiat have a stand-alone value of €11.88 per share, which is 70% higher than today’s share price. In a spinoff scenario, Fiat’s shareholders would still own an automaker producing nearly 5 million vehicles a year for free."Ferrari is a prestige / ultra premium brand. Basically a one of a kind. What does the market assign as a value on these types of brands? I think TSLA is a decent guide. It's worth $29 Billion. Sure there's a lot of fluff in that valuation, but I'm willing to bet that people pay a helluva lot more than 10X EBITDA for this brand when its trading as a standalone company. I think FCAU is a bit of a hidden gem...an unknown company with premium brands masked by shitty ones. This spinoff will at least double this stock. Its my largest holding now.
(a) Miners continue to sell off into the close. It's dangerous to add to positions until the sector finds a (short term) low. Holding positions opened this morning, and will add when trend changes. (b) The DJIA and SPX continue to rally hard (GDP @ +3.5% was a positive surprise). No interest in chasing.(c) Opening positions in RYMBX (Rydex Commodities), RYGBX (Rydex Long Bond) and RYEIX (Rydex Energy) at the close.
CP - I ended up selling PCRX. I spent a few hours today looking into FCAU more and I felt like I wanted to take a larger position in that than I originally intended to take so I sold PCRX. Over the next 6-12 months I can't think of another mid cap company with more upside potential than FCAU right now. I'm probably missing something but this reminds me of buying NOK at $3 or SNE at $11. Sum of the parts play that just announced a major catalyst.
Look at FCAU this way:Maserati did 26,428 sales thru first 9 months of 2014...on pace for about 35,000. Ferrari did sales of 5,280 " "...on pace for about 7,000Combined about 42,000 sales. TSLA is expecting to do 35,000 sales in 2014. Ferrari + Maserati sales are 20% greater and the avg selling price is probably about 50% higher given the price of Ferrari's (Maserati and Tesla is comparable).TSLA trades at a $29 Billion valuation.FCAU owns both F & M yet its valuation is $13 Billion. I think if Marchionne goes with an IPO of Maserati then you could see a 200% return in FCAU over time.
Let's hope you are right. I agree that Ferarri could do a lot to upsell its brand through licensing, etc. and get it up much higher.Plus, you pull out Ferarri and Maserati and you've still got the 7th largest car manufacturer in the world. It is 80% the size of Ford and 20% of the market cap.
The greatest car auction on Earth, no doubt about that!
NWLI quietly sneaking up to it's highest level since the financial crisis and up 6% in the last week and 12% in the last 3. It's had these moves before and generally turns back down buy I wonder (hope) if higher rates are getting priced into the life insurers finally. It is still my 2nd largest holding and up 12% for the year, nicely ahead of the market. The other insurers have had similar moves, so it looks like it could be an industry revaluation as it still is a very inexpensive industry.
But splitting Ferrari apart from FCA makes sense. One is a mass-market carmaker and the other a luxury brand that makes huge profits partly by selling merchandise—around a fifth from selling baseball caps and the like emblazoned with Ferrari’s prancing horse. http://www.economist.com/news/business-and-finance/21629214-why-demerger-luxury-carmaker-fiat-chrysler-makes-sense-conscious-uncoupling
Absolutely it makes sense! My largest concern is GM might try to buy Ferrari.
This FCAU / Ferrari thing reminds me so much of the YHOO / Alibaba setup back in late 2012...before YHOO tripled. Gonna happen again.
Holy hell look at the Nikkei. Big QE going on
By the way, if you ever get a chance to listen to the conference call for FCAU I'd highly recommend listening to the Q&A section. Marchionne is great to listen to. He sounds like a bad ass.
TSCO - OMG, was trying to follow that one.....
Gold/silver - This is getting scary.
Green revolution momentum is building fast, ever notice how everything has gotten greener these days?http://web.tradekorea.com/upload_file2/product/333/P00225333/cbe9caa5_761c824d_6616_4013_b518_c70cfea7656a.jpg
The Bank of Japan Global puts pedal to the metal on QE, which sends global markets soaring this morning. DJIA futes +200, SPX +20. (a) As global central banks race to devalue their currencies, the $USD rises.(b) This week's decision by the Fed not to postpone the end QE adds to upward pressure on the dollar.(c) The overnight shock by the BOJ has roiled currency markets, with Yen futes +2%, $USD -0.5%, and the Euro -0.27%.(d) A rising dollar can't be good for any of my positions, of course. Gold prices are plunging another -25/oz, crude off -0.7%.(e) However, having picked up my positions 'after the ambulances go,' the damage appears minimal. Pre-market indications show most miners off an additional -2% or less (you could say the miners gave 24 hours' notice re the BOJ decision), bonds are off -0.24%, and XLE (Energy) is actually trading higher.There will be more blood in the mining sector. It won't be a good day for John Hussman (short equities, long precious metals). We all get paid to drive, but whereas I'm prepared to be wrong, he's been driving under the influence of hubris.
Some piling on onto gold happening in the markets this morning. Means we are probably close to the bounce, unless this is the crash time. I tend to think bounce as Gold has done a good job of bouncing when it gets to these types of markets, but given how oil has collapsed, wouldn't be a surprise for gold to follow.
Interesting stat - since the Russell 2000 was created in 1979, it's average return is 11.8%, but it has never had a yearly return between 6% and 16%. So either it does crappy or does really well. Last year was really good and this year looks kind of crappy.
Checking out the gold blog and another RockieTrader the latest guy to call out Cara:Anyone who took the advice of buy and hold, can’t go wrong in the end, was a sucker. I may be the last weak hand to sell but I’m with cheapy . Time to count the losses and move on. Be nice to hear the mans comments today after many loyal listeners are finally at the capitulation stage. Rob Mcewans 5000 gold, 200 silver? Got the timeframe wrong 2016? He must’ve meant 2116!Be nice to hear a man admit he was dead wrong in his touting of gold shares instead of hiding for a couple years when knowing he was being followed by .. How many hits on the blog?? Vad is obviously the smartest man to ever post on this website !!!
Opening numbers:(a) GDX off another -5%. Ouch.(b) Goldcorp off another -6%. Ouch.(c) Silver Wheaton off another -5%. Ouch.And that's why I decided it was too dangerous to add to yesterday's positions! On the other hand, I'm in no hurry to close my positions...yet.
PMs Short covering soon?
PCRX - Out @ $93.83 - Better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick!
Sold my copper miner LUN.TO at basically breakeven. I think they are a well run miner, but with oil down, now gold tanking, it's not a stretch to think copper (their main metal) would be next. If copper and zinc hold in at current prices, LUN.TO is at a p/e of about 7, so I will keep it on my watch list, but just being a bit cautious now.
I cancelled my stink bid on JONE but it didn't come near.Oil - Do you know why/if there aren't any other humongo shale formations on Earth that could be extracted other than NA? Oil seems to have jumped a technological hurdle....
There are other shale formations out there, some larger than the North America one.But, only North America has the technology and knowledge to make it work right now and with oil at $80, probably stays that way. When oil gets up to certain levels ($120 ?) it makes sense to push this technology to other parts of the world. You know this will happen, but it may not be for a very long time.
OIBR - Out @ $0.56 with a 12% gain, wait for the gap up to close....
SPXS - As sharkie would say... Shall we reach down and find out nut sack?
My SPY December 215 call option is almost back to break even. I've gotten really lucky on this and had basically written it off when it got down to $0.03. Had I waited for the pullback to buy this, could have been a huge winner - of well, Calls are really just gambling.Anyhow, a meltup into year-end does not sound crazy now given how markets are reacting. Maybe the EU jumps on QE too and gives another boost
TOF's long term indicator, U MIchigan sentiment, moving up nicely still. Looks like we have years of growth ahead as every cycle has shown sentiment above current levels for a long time before a major downturn:http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/
Goldcorp CEO calling for $1,200 to $1,400 gold on Asian buying. I think we' ve all learned not to trust Gold company CEO's price predictions:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-30/goldcorp-ceo-jeannes-sees-gold-price-floor-around-1-200.html?cmpid=yhoo
My feeling is $13 silver and sub $1,000 gold are quite possible.I also don't discount new fracing techniques might be propagated globally, the world longs for cheap(er) energy and will leave no stone unturned.
I also think we sub-$1,000 gold. Wouldn't be surprised to see it in the $600 - $770 range, but I don't think we get down to the early 2000's sub-$300 pricing. The other thing is the gold bugs index (HUI) is still 400% up from it's 2001 low, so the bottom in gold stocks could be much lower than people think.Talking with my 2 goldbug friends and they are both hanging in. The one guy will probably never sell, but the other guy will probably sell near the bottom - he has impeccably bad market timing.
Okay I'll take a look, thanks.YPF - This one's in South America, dunno if you watch it.
Yep. I need to find that inverse jr miner ETF TOF was looking at... JDSD or something like that. Catch it when short covering subsides.
ENPH - This was $10 recently, fellas....
BB - Awesome "call" on the calls. I think you'll will make good money. Although you should have doubled down!
DB - This one seems to be loitering around this level, unwilling to go lower with a higher low..
I didn't mention it yesterday but I went all in on FCAU yesterday. This is one of those no brainers to me that only come around every so often and I think the only way to take advantage of it is to go in heavy. Back in the spring I bought this around $10 I think but bailed on it. I knew the inherent value was there but without any actions to take advantage of the value there was a chance it could lay dormant for a long long time. Well with the plans to bring Ferrari public it's time to be invested in this. I thought through a few scenarios in my head:Let's say the markets tank...what's the downside? Easy. Ferrari is possibly the #1 premier luxury brand in the world. The demand stays strong through downturns and given they have capped production at 7k cars per year even if demand slows they will be able to sell it out completely as the waiting list to get a new one stretches for years in some cases. I think the brand at the low side is worth $10 Billion (based on EBITDA/operating income), making the remainder of FCAU worth $3 Billion (includes Maserati which is probably worth $5 Billion). The upside? With Tesla already sporting a $29 Billion valuation, let's say the markets & Tesla's valuation stay strong until the mid 2015 planned IPO. Tesla, it can be argued, has more upside because they don't cap production. However, they also don't charge as much per car and their cars have a lower profit margin. Additionally, Marchionne has mentioned that he would like to expand production conservatively to 9k or 10k cars per year to allow for the growth in people worldwide (think China) that can afford Ferrari's. That means there's definite upside to the current valuation of Ferrari. Let's assume a 50% discount to Tesla's valuation which I'd argue is conservative. That pegs Ferrari at a $14.5 Billion market cap. I believe Marchionne suggested it is worth $10 to $12 Billion Euros (about $12-15 Billion) so I don't think I'm far off.FCAU's market cap as of yesterdays close was $13.5 Billion. So I think downside is very limited in the worst of possible scenarios (ie FCAU goes down 75% in value in a severe recession while Ferrari IPOs at a $8 Billion to $10 Billion valuation). In this case: $8 Billion + 0.25 x $13.5 Billion = $3.4 Billion = 11.4 Billion or about 15% below yesterday's closing price.The upside could be enormous, though. If the remaining parts of FCAU are valued like even GM's valuation, that would peg it at around $20 to $25 Billion. Add in the $15 Billion for Ferrari (or potentially even more) and $5-7 Billion for Maserati and Alfa Romeo, you're talking a combined value of $40 to $47 Billion. And this assumes that F and GM don't increase in value over time which would drag up the value of the remaining pieces of FCAU. That is a potential upside of 195% to 250% from here...versus a 15% downside. Talk about a nice risk-reward setup.This is one of the best looking investments I've come across in the past 18 months...really since YRCW.
Let F go at 14.12Gold is a disaster, should have waited, but was/am willing to give MDW room. I agree with BB may get a bounce on the miners in a few days, but hard to see miners getting legs with stronger dollar. And oil equities seem to be reacting less to oil gyrations btw 79-81.5 for now.Looks like we passed the QE torch to Japan.
SPX - Three points shy of the previous high qualifies as a Batman ears top if it doesn't continue on up.
By the way, I believe they classify this move in the Nikkei futures as a upside breakout. Not sure. I'm thinking up 1200 points is one, though.
Mr. Simpleton here on my shoulder - Okay, so if the theory that stimulus doesn't result in a market rally then we can't say the market was anticipating Japan was about to stimulate?Considering currently Japanese autos are cheaper than Korean autos, does that seem sustainable? True, Life has no doubt become more expensive in Korea over the decades and they may not have quite the cheap labor force they had previously but Koreans are much harder workers with great attitudes, in comparison with Japanese.
Police cameras - Who was it that makes these, can't find my notes or remember..... Ugh....
DGLY was the momo stock I had. TASR is the safer pick that I think is a worthy speculation....they will win the lion's share of the market for them.
Thanks, wrote it down, lol. The reason I ask is b/c I hear out in West Texas crime rates have lifted alarmingly due to rif-raff following the oil worker employment boom.Police are gonna need to get tough.
Holy crapola, look at TASR go.....
RGR - On the skids, maybe police forces don't buy this one. Need to check into what they carry, maybe just cameras flack jackets, billy clubs and donuts.....
KEY/FMC/FLR - None of these are impressing me. CG sinking back down.... I'm not convinced SPX beats 2019Can't understand why TLT is rallying, EDC bumped the 200sma on the chart I'm watching and didn't lift over.
ORB - Ah, there she goes......
I guess the Takata air bags must've failed.....
SPWR - Wooo Nelly, storm clouds passed time for the sun to shine again? Japan going back 2 solar again this month?
CW - Puking..... My understanding is military contractors tend do do considerably better with Democrats running the show in DC? Our Senator has been his sounding siren blast about the state budget taking a hit from military contractor cutbacks and looking to promote other businesses (oh really, as if government can't remain the largest employer, imagine that!)So if government does finally become the 2nd (or 5th?) largest employer who gets smacked in the tooklaroochie?
SPX - Pinch me @ 2020, okay?
BXE - OMG, green! Consider me pinched...
Put in a buy for some more FCAU, but stock jumped and I missed it. Maybe it will come back down a bit.Normally I wouldn't buy a stock up 15% in 3 days, but I like the fundamental story and just trying to leverage TOF's market timing skill.My average cost is $10.35, so it is nicely profitable, but would be good to have a larger position if we do get a big move.
Wow just checked it out. I haven't turned my quote streamer off in two years until now. I'm about as comfortable with this one as I've ever been with any holding
Nice work guys! Here's what I see on my screen (I think this should get a chuckle) "Underperform As of 10/16/2014, no research available."
Oh forgot, the target is $7.10
BWA - Found it I think... BWA makes the eco-boost turbo chargers for Ford. Have to verify this if across the board, just trucks or what.
(a) GDX now off -2.5%. Closing.(b) Goldcorp now UP +0.9%! Closing.(c) Silver Wheaton now off 'just' -1.7%. Closing.That's it for this foray into the miners, which dented the port for a fractional percentage point. They may well rally hard later today or next week, but that's not my take, and not my trade.(d) XLE now up +1.73%. Plan to close RYEIX end of day.(e) DBC (Deutsche Bank Commodities) off -0.74%. Plan to close RYMBX end of day.(f) TLT (the long bond) now off just -0.03% (basically flat). Plan to close RYGBX end of day.
$WTIC - That's two higher lows, so far. F1 racers on der Reisescheck, get set, go!!!
PUGOY - If you like thin, this one meets the criteria.
FCAU now up over 10% on the day - no way I'm buying up here. You almost always get a pullback after a move like this and, even if I don't in this case, the overall returns from buying stocks like this is far to the negative, in my experience.
Smart move on resisting the spike, but I bet its the first of many. Take a look at the way Tesla traded back about 18 months ago. It had a small gap up around April 1 2013 that never came back and then a month or so later it really gapped up and just rocketed higher. Within 6 months it was up 4X. I wouldn't be surprised if FCAU does that on a smaller scale...maybe up 2-fold in 6 months.
At the very least we have yardstick out there to judge against...a premium luxury brand auto company. Sure there's a lot of premium due to their electric / battery feature and Elon Musk running it, but Ferrari is one of the most exclusive brands in the world and you will have people chasing it to get a piece of the pie. The only way you get in early is by buying FCAU. I did a conservative estimate above using a 50% haircut to TSLA's valuation after assuming an increase in auto production and you can see there's still a ton of value in the stock right here.
Gotta backfill today's gap up but looks like a nice iH&S formed. Troubling me, is the lower high with gap up.
OIBR - Thus, nearly anyone who gave into temptation of buying this gap up today is taking the big high hard one in the rear end all day.
I wouldn't be surprised to see the market stall here for a little while..maybe a few weeks. Rally to old highs...then pause with maybe a 2-3% pullback here to get people hopping to the bearish side yet again near the lows in time for them to be convinced a double top is in place...then rally into the year end. Rally commences week of Thanksgiving.
PGAL - For some reason I want some of this down here, lower would be better...
BB - One thing I considered in regards to all of the auto makers is that the big institutional investors that will presumably be buying FCAU heading into the Ferrari IPO will have to sell their GM/F holdings if they have certain weighting requirements. This was something I considered when I decided to just sell both GM and F and move to FCAU. Look at the big institutional holdings of those two. Several companies own $2 Billion + worth of stock. If they pare those holdings down a bit it might keep a lid on them and it should really juice shares of FCAU. Institutional ownership of FCAU is pretty small. I estimate about 53 Million shares have been purchased since it went to the NYSE. That's only $530 Million or so worth of shares and presumably a good chunk of that is very short term traders. So assuming maybe $5 Billion or so of institutional money eventually flows into FCAU it will mean a lot of support for the stock.
NWLI - Quite the volume today.