Tuesday, November 18, 2014

11/18/14 'Don't Lose'

I'm not a Tony Robbins fan, and although I 'kinda' know who he is I've read none of his books.  Now, however, he's taken on the subject of finance- that one I plan to read.  Marketwatch includes an 'op-ed' piece by Robbins today which attempts to distill the results of his interviews with successful investors.  Excellent read:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tony-robbins-tells-you-how-to-make-money-like-a-billionaire-2014-11-18?page=2

Not losing is somewhat of a misnomer.  All investors make losing bets.  The 'key,' if you will, is to cut losses quickly.  Almost half of my trades turn out to be 'wrong.'  That's OK, as long as I immediately recognize/admit the error and take the dent to my portfolio (before the damage escalates).  It's the closest you'll come to discovering a 'secret' to financial success.

129 comments:

  1. ENPH - Noticing the August gap up was closed a couple days ago!

    "cut losses quickly - Such as BXE @$8 !

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  2. No chance we get SPWR at 20 is there?

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    1. Sorta doesn't look like it this time around but if oil does crash (perhaps I mean natty?) SPWR might feel further pressure? Also, the Reps are oil friendly, they claim, although Romni had me confused with his prediction he could deliver low gasoline prices (suspect he knew from an insider perspective that oil would crash).

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  3. DBC - So, commodities are overpriced due to a weak global economy and $US strength which is forecast to persist, eh? Just for the record......

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  4. Cool song

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1WKCPLoDwe8

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    1. The moon is hanging in the purple sky
      Baby's sleeping while its mother sighs
      Talking 'bout the rich folks
      Rich folks have the same jokes
      And they park in basic places

      The priest is preaching from a shallow grave
      He counts his money, then he paints you saved
      Talking to the young folks
      Young folks share the same jokes
      But they meet in older places

      So don't tell me about your success
      Nor your recipes for my happiness
      Smoke in bed
      I never could digest
      Those illusions you claim to have going

      The sun is shining, as it's always done
      Coffin dust is the fate of everyone
      Talking 'bout the rich folks
      The poor create the rich hoax
      And only late breast-fed fools believe it

      So don't tell me about your success
      Nor your recipes for my happiness
      Smoke in bed
      I never could digest
      Those illusions you claim to have going

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  5. Years ago I had an unusual encounter with a girl who took a Robbins seminar on Maui. One day I'll write it up here.

    Have you ever been anchored?

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  6. Large losses are destroyer's of capital and performance. The sooner one learns this, the better off they will be. As 2nd often states position sizing is a great tool to mitigate risk. But for some, like TOF, all in is the play. He seems to have an uncanny knack at stock selection. And BB's largest stock holdings are performing the best.

    You guys are all hot in your own way, congratulations. As for Mark he's just hot in his Speedo's honking at geese or were they swans?

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    Replies
    1. Good to see you mellowed out and reflective. I've been doing more of that myself lately.

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    2. Ha, yeah starting to relax, received our goods from the Pacific. Had a desk made for the new digs and for the first time in eleven months have my computer set for market and speakers to listen to music. Ah I missed music. Then Prime creates radio music and you click on artists names and go on a journey.

      Tonight its Rodiquez, yesterday it was Liszt which led to this wonderful piano album:

      Most Relaxing Piano Album in the World....Ever!

      http://www.amazon.com/Most-Relaxing-Piano-Album-World/dp/B000059Q4Q

      Really nice if you like piano music. My Mother would play piano and sing Moon River to me when I was a child, great times in retrospect.

      Reflection and thinking are good things, thanks 2nd.

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  7. "TOF, when you talk about these setups, what timeframe chart are you looking at and what is it that makes you think they are good?"

    BB - Kind of a loaded question and I'll do my best to answer it somewhat quickly. I have 4 basic criteria for any stock and if I can get behind all 4 at the same time then I push most of my chips in...other wise, I'll just take smaller positions:

    (1) Must be "cheap" in the eyes of the market in some way...either sum of parts, relative to free cash flow, or relative to major player in its space.
    (2) Must have a near term catalyst that will draw major interest from market (e.g., from ones I've taken big bets on: Ferrari spinoff, Nokia handset sale, MITK signing up new banks for mobile deposit, LEJU launching Zillow partnership, YRCW showing clear path to profitability, etc etc)
    (3) "Good" chart > either positive divergences in RSI vs price, extremely oversold reading for a stock whose fundamentals I like, at a sold support area...not the same setup...I usually pay more attention to what setup has worked recently with other big winners because the market has significant short term memory in the way it acts with winners.
    (4) Trying my hardest to understand how traders will respond to #1 and #2...there is a lot of noise in this but I at least try to get a sense for what the sentiment is surrounding the stock/sector.

    For me the most important things are #1 and #2, especially if its a big position. The charts are not as important but they can help in my experience with picking entry / exit points.

    I really like a setup on the daily charts where there are new lows being formed yet the relative strength (RSI) doesn't make new lows...kind of like an exhaustion of sellers and/or real support from buyers...especially if it is in a sector/stock whose fundamentals I like and it has a near term catalyst.

    Ideally, I'd like to see higher lows on RSI with lower lows on the chart and where RSI is at or below 30 (ie beaten down). YELP had the same exact setup back in May and the stock ripped 60% in 7 weeks (I think I caught about half of that move). I've been eyeing the sand / fracking stocks (EMES, HCLP, SLCA) for a while now waiting for a similar entry. It's not as good as the YELP setup but I think it could work. All three have had significant earnings growth recently and could have a snap back rally. I don't think they're out of the woods on a longer term time frame (bc I don't quite understand the longer term implications of lower oil on the nat gas servicing stocks and can't quite get my head around how traders will react to this) but stocks with these kinds of yields (like EMES and HCLP) should be supported at some point...especially if the dollar tops out here soon, or at least, stops rising. Still trying to figure this out though.

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    1. For me its almost always most important to have near/intermediate term catalysts. But that's just my own personality. I know I'm not patient enough to hold stuff for years. I can hold stuff for 6 months or so but that's pushing it. If you don't have a catalyst you can wait a long time for one to come along and a lot of bad things can happen in the meantime. I can identify a cheap stock pretty easily and come up with a story about it in my mind but without a catalyst I most likely will eventually get impatient and sell/get shaken out at a bad time. Perfect example is FCAU. I bought that back in the $9 area I think in the spring. I knew they owned Ferrari and Maserati and could come up with the same reason I have now for why it would go much higher, but with the way the market works it could have been years before it rewarded the company for those holdings. I ended up bailing after realizing this and the stock dropped to the $7's I believe. I guarantee I would have sold during that downturn at the lows. However, the minute they announced the spinoff there was now a major catalyst that would eventually get lots of traders involved. After those one day pops there's usually a bit of a retracement and then another leg higher. The retracement depends in large part to how big of a catalyst it is, which is completely subjective.

      Anyway, getting back to these in particular, most of them I can make a fundamental case for them being cheap, plus some of them have what I think are good catalysts (solar: yieldcos, continued conversion to solar / european stocks: QE) and they all have positive divergences in their charts which is a setup that has been working this year pretty well.

      Shit that was a lot longer than I had hoped for...sorry.

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  8. By the way CP > the solar stocks are not tied to oil usage in the longer term. In the short run traders make the mistake of tying the two, perhaps because they remember what happened in 2008??? But I believe oil makes up a very small amount of electricity usage. Really its all about governments making major pushes away from coal and other dirty sources of energy and toward solar / wind. I guess SPWR could drop down to $20 again, especially if they miss on earnings again. But they're pretty conservative in their guidance and you have to keep in mind they will be tripling production within the next 2 years and the growth in solar usage in the US, despite being nearly exponential, has only resulted in it still being a very small piece of the total energy use pie.

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  9. Remember jesse's 'There Will Be Blood?' I think it's time to look at the energy sector.

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    1. Commodities are still at 52-wk lows? Unreal. DBC has been a one-way trade since July. I'm getting interested.

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  10. FOMC again today? Opening positions ahead of it is always difficult.

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    1. Gaming the announcement hasn't worked for me, maybe 50/50. The smarter play is to wait for the 'market' to show its hand, and hope there's an (over)reaction. No reaction, no play.

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  11. Thanks for the writeup TOF. I appreciate the detail also as reading other successful trader approaches is a great way to see if you can improve your own.

    I mainly focus on value and safety. I also look for catalysts, but don't usually consider it as important an attribute as you do. I also like your thoughts on trying to understand what other traders are thinking. I never do that but it makes a lot of sense and I should try and see if I can make use of it.

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    1. BB - I think your style perfectly matches your demeanor. I don't think it's that much different than mine in that we're both looking for values and keeping in mind downside risk. I personally want to know what my downside is if I get it wrong (either in terms of entry price or if I just got the idea wrong). If the fundamentals are fine and the reason for getting in hasn't changed then its just a matter of sitting through the gyrations. But with me I have more concentrated positions and need to stay on top of the gyrations more than you do.

      Also, my goal is probably a lot different than yours. It sounds like you're trying to maintain your current lifestyle and cover your costs (with some cushion) in retirement. We're almost there and probably could invest in dividend paying stocks and cover our costs more or less right now (assuming say 7% annual returns) but that doesn't suit my personality and my goals.

      My goals are to buy a house with cash, buy a business, pay down my wife's student loan debt (which is over $150k) and have enough $$ left over to generate returns to cover our costs (assuming 3% dividends and 4% returns). If we lived in Tennessee or some other cheaper state we would be just about there already. But in San Diego the majority of homes are priced at $700k to $1.1M which is nuts and creates a much higher hurdle.

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  12. Big boost for Z - calling for $770 on a $120 stock:

    Caledonia's Messara flags $50 bln enterprise value for Zillow
    09:14 EST Wednesday, November 19, 2014
    Print this article
    LONDON, Nov 19 (Reuters) - Michael Messara, senior portfolio manager of hedge fund Caledonia, said U.S. property portal Zillow is the firm's biggest ever bet and he expects it to reach an enterprise value of $50 billion.

    That would be reached by monitising its audience share, which is 18 times greater than its share of advertising revenue, Messara told the Sohn Conference in London, produced by Bloomberg, and would imply a price of $770 a share.

    Messara said Zillow would be the same as the market leaders in other countries and follow a similar valuation path, boosted by its strong and defensible position, focus on mobile technology and "best in class" management. (Reporting by Simon Jessop and Nishant Kumar; editing by Jason Neely)

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    1. That reminds me so much of Mary Meeker and her targets for dot.com stocks.

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  13. DBC - Looks like $21.64 is the line in the sand but lower is less risk. The risk to everyone comes from the same source, magnitude varies for various reasons.

    What is solar power used for?

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  14. Reopened PBR @ 9.4x.
    Opened GDP @ 8.8x.

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  15. Got lucky with my partial sale of FCAU. I'm usually left watching it move higher. I actually ended up selling 43% of my stake and moved it into SPWR which is basically flat today. Pondering if I should buy back FCAU today or hope for more? There's a few other things I'm watching closely for an entry point over the next couple of days...hoping for a mini bloodbath in the market to be honest.

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    1. I'm not sure how you sniffed that one out but your sale kept me from jumping in.

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    2. I saw the RSI on the European chart hit 80 yesterday and compared it with prior times it hit that level. Usually coincided with near term tops.

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  16. Reopening a small position in RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) at the 1030 window.

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  17. I'm really surprised we don't see some buyouts in the solar space. Isn't this a major threat to existing utilities?

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    1. To me, solar is a high tech solution to a low tech problem. But, I don't make legislation on behalf of friends and family nor do I control financial market price action.

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    2. Interesting take. It's also in limitless supply and pollution friendly.

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    3. Yeah, I guess it's not clear to me there's a pollution advantage.

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  18. OIBR - Back to where I sold. This one might actually run to over $1 ?

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    1. I see a big sell order on the ask, not sure if that's predicting a dip.

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  19. STM - Seems to be getting bids. I ALMOST went to work for this company once, accepted the offer then backed out (OUCH :( )! They weren't happy. A good friend of mine was trying to hire me, she was a lithography guru.

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  20. PGAL - This one has a gap down from $17, but seems like there's still a lot of eager sellers.

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  21. TEP - Supposedly these guys own the pipeline that runs into Cushing from the Bakken?

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  22. YPF - Kyle Bass also owns this?

    YPF - "Soros Fund Management LLC sold about $17 million of YPF American depositary receipts to take a 3.4 percent stake in the company as of Sept. 30, according to a Nov. 14 filing. Loeb’s Third Point LLC reduced its holding by 2.5 million shares, or $92.5 million, to a less than 1 percent stake. Perry Capital LLC said Nov. 13 it sold some of its YPF shares in the period, leaving it with a 1.2 percent holding. "

    "YPF remains Soros’s largest position and has become a widely held security among hedge funds betting on an investment boom once Argentina settles with creditors from its 2001 default. Kyle Bass’s Hayman Capital Management LP bought a $79.2 million stake in the third quarter on speculation the energy company will be the main beneficiary of capital inflows when the legal dispute is resolved, he said last week. "

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  23. UNG - Wow baby, look at her go! Great lakes aren't frozen yet thus lots of snow (good for retailers Christmas?), wonder if that marks this year's peak?

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  24. MAT - Someone seems to be buying this one, elves at work?

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  25. Okay, what the heck is it I'm missing?

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  26. Replies
    1. GDP off @ 9.54. That's +7% in 2 hours. Sell when you can, not when you have to.

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    2. Very nice, wondering what prompted that pick! :)

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    3. Excellent question. My wife opened a position last week @ 9.3x, and naturally still holding.

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    4. she's a sleuth!

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  27. "Big boost for Z - calling for $770 on a $120 stock:"
    Wow that sure does sound a lot like the Mary Meeker / Blodget calls.

    I love that company and think its the one company that is immune to Google / FB / AAPL in the internet space. But that's a wild price target.

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  28. I finally made the jump to an iPhone. A 6-plus with the large screen. It will probably take a few weeks to adjust, as I have no experience with Macs or other Apple devices.

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    1. nice. i am tempted to buy it too because i do use my phone a lot and would be nice to have a much larger screen. is it too large to hold in one hand?

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    2. My wife has the Samsung Note (the large one) and she uses it in one hand. There are tradeoff's, but overall she likes the bigger screen more than she misses the smaller size in her hand.

      I've got a Nexus 5 (same size as iphone 6) and it is mostly good, but one thing that is difficult is reaching the address bar in the browser with your thumb (blackberry was smart putting the bottom).

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    3. Google is doing a nice job integrating maps, voice calendar and email with the new versions of android. I would assume Apple is doing something similar, but Google owns the stack and a lot of Apple users use google maps and gmail, so not sure it is as clean.

      I know the one thing my wife misses about the iphone is the music and itunes integration. I don't download songs, so no issue for me.

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    4. Here's the story behind my decision. My Droid 4s started to act up, and it was time for me to upgrade (I almost think they design phones with a 2-year lifespan). On top of that, my Nexus 7 tablet began to fail following some type of Google update. So I opted for a Phablet. I'm not one to use the phone much, so whether the device fits easily into one hand doesn't matter to me.

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    5. So will the iphone 6 replace your tablet?

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    6. Yes. Not planning to replace the tablet.

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  29. Holy freaking NGas, bro. UNG +5% intraday. These types of moves ALWAYS occur when no one's watching.

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    1. Crazy cold weather up here. Luckily we are on the other side of the lake from Buffalo and got 3 inches of snow instead of the 6 feet they got. I imagine people are extrapolating this cold spell to nat gas usage for the winter in which case we could see a big price spike.

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    2. 18F here last night, jet stream brought us COLD dry air from up North. Rather uncommon for this time of year, feels like January. Should warm up some over the weekend, 65F forecast for Monday but with rain, uck....

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  30. PBR off @ 9.52, basically break-even.

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  31. Sold SPWR around $28.3. Made a small profit in it of about 0.8% or so. I think it goes higher but I'm sitting waiting for a few things I'm watching closely. Holding about 40 to 45% cash, rest in FCAU

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    1. I'll either be adding FCAU back if it drops into the $11s or I'll be buying a few other things I'm looking at. I see the potential for some big runs in some stocks heading into year end.

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  32. FOMC turned out to be a non-event.

    (a) RYWVX closed the 1030 window @ 71.82. With EEM now bidding +0.6% higher (41.25 versus a 1030 print of 41.01), the position may end the day +1% or so. Of course, I'm unable to close until Thursday morning at the earliest.
    (b) XLE (Energy) and OIH (Oil Services) have backed off the day's highs. I plan to add small positions in RYEIX (Rydex Energy) and RYVIX (Rydex Energy Services) at the close.
    (c) Miners selling off into the close (GDX now -5%). I may elect to open a small position in RYPMX (Rydex Precious Metals) at the close.
    (d) DBC (Commodities) printing a new low this afternoon, off -0.5% to 21.33. I may opt to open a small position in RYMBX (Rydex Commodities) at the close.

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  33. So many think oil and gas are going to run out of options as well lives aren't long enough to keep up with demand.

    Thus solar might join the party and become the senior energy source? BTU was clobbered pretty good today.

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  34. GM - Anybody have a feeling Buffet is working with GM towards leapfrogging TSLA, like an electric corvette or something?

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  35. I ended up opening positions in RYPMX, RYMBX, RYEIX, and RYVIX at the close. Sure, they could all sell off overnight. I don't think they will.

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    Replies
    1. I finally catch a leveraged play that goes my way. RYWVX closed up +1.25%, or +1.5% from my 1030 entry. Hoping for a global short squeeze on Thursday that catches traders off guard.

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  36. Any of you guys from NorCal ever eat at the habit? Ipo is tmrw

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  37. Isn't it amazing that GPRO's market cap is so much larger that TSL or SPWR?

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  38. PBR - I just read about this one, confirming my suspicions from last year that I briefly described. The subject wasn't discussed any further AT ALL on TT for some reason?

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  39. I bought back my entire position in fcau this morning. I was going to play the habt ipo but they priced it way too aggressively given it will pop 30 to 50% today. It will trade up to a 700 mm valuation so upside may be no higher than fcau with a lot more risk. I was able to get a larger position than before in fcau which is nice

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  40. SPWR - I'm completely baffled by it trading lower this morning, maybe we can get it lower after all...

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  41. EWZ Okay, something must be up and this one is.... Why?

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  42. Interesting open full of divergences:

    (a) Euro Stoxx 50 off -1.25%, with US indexes poised to open significantly lower: DJIA futes -84, SPX -10.
    (b) On the other hand, EWZ (Brazil) bidding +2.6% higher. CAF (China A Shares) also set to open near Wednesday's high.
    (c) Among domestic shares, XLE (Energy) trading unchanged. Commodities trading higher: USO (Crude) +0.7%, UGA (Gasoline) +04%. PBR (Petrobras) catching a +3% bid on strength in both Brazil + Crude.
    (d) Miners? GDX +2%!
    (e) Bond yields significantly lower (ie, bond prices higher). TLT +0.9%.

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    1. $USD index:

      http://quotes.ino.com/charting/?s=NYBOT_DX.Z14.E

      If/as it continues to fall, spot gold should continue to spike:

      http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

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    2. There's news Russia was buying gold at recent lows. Markets are so dynamic and constantly shifting/changing it's overwhelming.

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  43. SPWR - $1 swing, that's pretty good.... Dunno which way it goes from here but if down my interest increases.

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  44. DB - Ouch, if you took the bait yesterday looked like it was stalling (Draghi rallies becoming less effective?).

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  45. HABT- Haven't eaten there. I'm a vegan.

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    1. Would it be accurate to suspect you're one of those pagan vegans? :)

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    2. In that case you may need a good Tofurkey recipe?

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    3. I'll vouch for Mark being a vegan.

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    4. Nothing wrong with that I guess. Long ago, my father's father stopped eating meat (or beef maybe?) after discovering one evening after dinner that he'd just dined on his pet calf. Obviously he wasn't rendered completely impotent but does this qualify as a mutagenic event? :)

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  46. Early indications are that the divergence between stocks and bonds will resolve in favor of stocks:

    (a) EEM +0.2%.
    (b) EWZ (Brazil) +2.5%. PBR (Petrobras) +4%.
    (c) XLE (Energy>Exxon, Chevron, Conoco) +1%.
    (d) OIH (Oil Services>Schlumberger, Halliburon, Baker Hughes) +1.3%.
    (e) GDX (miners) +2.5%.
    (f) DBC (commodities) +0.8%.
    (g) TLT (long-dated Treasurys) off opening highs to +0.6%.

    On the other hand, the first hour of trading is notorious for 'gaming,' and early prices are unreliable 'tells.'

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  47. "Blinded by the Light" Perhaps I should disconnect my airbags?

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  48. I should have known. GDP +8.6% to 10.14.

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    1. Amazing, huh? Just when I was becoming convinced the world can't grow unless oil falls below $50 Could be short covering, I guess.

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  49. DB - Like a good steward, gap up was closed.
    MAT - Merry Christmas! :)

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  50. Just a cool 100% for MITK. That's all. Buyers sure love that $2 level.

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    Replies
    1. You don't see that for OIBR, do you? Seems like the assets being sold are going for more than market cap.

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  51. Excuse my French but OIBR has a shitload of debt, no?

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    1. Yeah, I think that's why assets are being sold.

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    2. There's tons of companies out there carrying debt, JONE for instance has a ton of it too, right?

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    3. Can it manage the debt though? especially should a potential slowdown in business hit... that's the question. FCF will tell us that answer.

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    4. There ya go, I'll look closer into that.

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  52. Wow. HABT is now trading at a multiple of 150 times estimated 2014 earnings and over 5.5 times sales. There isn't a single restaurant stock trading at even nearly as close multiples. By comparison CMG traded at 38.6 times earnings and 2.34 times sales at its IPO. CMG was growing at around 40% at the time of its IPO and HABT is growing at 45-48%.

    Coupled with the call on Z yesterday, its pretty obvious people are willing to pay just about anything for some stocks.

    The Ferrari IPO couldn't come sooner. If the fervor surrounding IPOs extends to Ferrari you could see a monumental run in FCAU...potentially to $30 or so.

    I think the safest strategy at the time is to only focus on extremely beaten down stocks or blue chips.

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    1. I agree with all of that, Ferrari is a priceless icon IMO, Mazarati ain't no slouch either and that's not the entire story for this stock, right? The Alpha has a cult following as well with the snake emblem and probably the past logos that no doubt are part of the IP trademark.

      Maybe this stuff is too old hat and "The Black Perl" is where it's at instead, I dunno.

      Seems like if someone was interested though they'd be closed lips.

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    2. Honestly this is one of the bigger no brainers I've come across. Just have to be patient.

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    3. I hope you're right again, I'm focusing on it in a big way.... You said you old boss loaded up too if I recall, he's on the ball as well.

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  53. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  54. PCRX, sold out, made a little.

    I'm becoming sleuth like too.

    FCAU, good flip and rebuy.

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  55. EWZ - No elixir for this one looks like, early bull trap?

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  56. Coal - Utilities reporting coal stocks dangerously low and rail unresponsive to requests for transportation.

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  57. I plan to close all positions end of day. Nothing compares with the sight of strong bids for your positions against a backdrop of negative futures for the major indexes.

    (a) Closing RYEIX (Rydex Energy). XLE (Energy) bid +1.2%.
    (b) Closing RYVIX (Rydex Energy Services). OIH (Oil Services) bid +1.4%.
    (c) Closing RYMBX (Rydex Commodities). DBC (Commodities) bid +0.8%.
    (d) Closing RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets). Both EEM and EWZ (Brazil) now well off earlier highs, but I opened this position at Wednesday morning's lows and expect to retain a +1.5% gain.
    (e) Closing RYPMX (Rydex Precious Metals). GDX (miners) bid +3.6%.

    I fired off another roundtrip in GDP (Goodrich Petroleum) intraday> open 9.85, close 10.28.

    What might be the contrarian trade for Friday? I believe bonds are poised for a short-term spike. Opening a small position in RYGBX (Rydex 1.25x Government Long Bond) at the close. Note that TLT opened strong this morning (+0.9%) and have sold off the entire session. My take? The morning bid was 'the real deal.' The head fake going into Friday is likely to be today's 'recovery' in the US indexes. The bond trade presents moderate risk, so sizing down considerably.

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  58. LGCY - Wow, closed at my break-even basis price. What a stroke of luck!

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  59. EEM and EWZ print identical closing prices.

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    Replies
    1. Nuthin' funny going on there, obviously.

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  60. DB - Gotta like that bull trap setup, m'fers did that on purpose.

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    1. I'm still holding DB with a cost of $33.68. I'm not really worried and with the EU maybe doing some QE soon, could be the catalyst to get it going. Spent all of 2013 in the mid $40's, so 50% up from here. Analysts expect $3.12 in earnings next year, so sub-10 p/e and p/b less than .50.

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    2. Looks like it's headed higher, still trading below my last sale so if it does drop more I'm going to try grabbing some. I guess it might lift into the end of month and drop just before the 30th or maybe drops a bit more first then runs up into the 29th, unsure, but thinking it pops going into the decision then drops just prior (maybe).

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  61. Pretty boring market these days. Energy is interesting, but I've got about 10% of my portfolio in energy and not sure if I want more.

    Other than that, got more shoveling to do...

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  62. (a) RYEIX closed +1.9%.
    (b) RYVIX closed +1.63%.
    (c) RYMBX closed +0.98%.
    (d) RYWVX closed +0.29%, or +1.8% from my Wednesday morning basis.
    (e) RYPMX closed +2.66%.

    I had a total of 62.5% of the port invested, for a total 1-day return of +1.12%.

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    1. Just thinking - it's interesting that I'm finding this boring, but you are very active. The market certainly plays differently to all of us.

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  63. NWLI - Talk about a small world, NWLI financed the construction of "The Edmund Fitgerald" in 1957, this ship went down with it's cargo in heavy seas in 1975....

    "Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Company of Milwaukee, Wisconsin, invested in the iron and minerals industries on a large-scale basis, including the construction of the Fitzgerald, which represented the first such investment by any American life insurance company."

    http://www.twinportsrail.com/site/edmund.mp3

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    1. Oh, maybe I got that wrong, was thinking it was National Western Life

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  64. Which company is responsible for Kurdistan oil production?

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  65. Wow, China stimulus. Where's the best place to be?

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  66. P Brandt: "Gold above 1180 and then above 1202 would be strong indications that the 3+ year bear market has run its course."

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  67. From Marketwatch - looks like ECB QE. May be the catalyst for the next market leg up:

    MADRID (MarketWatch) -- The European Central Bank said Friday that it has begun buying asset-backed securities, as seeks to get banks to lend and revive the economy. "Following publication of legal act on the implementation of the ABS purchasing program, the Eurosystem has started the purchases on 21/11/2014," the ECB said on its Twitter feed. The purchases are expected to last for two years, Draghi said at a press conference in early October. Earlier in the year, the central bank laid out plans to buy asset-backed securities and covered bonds, dubbed private or mini QE. Investors have had the general idea that the ECB was looking to boost the bank's balance sheet by around a trillion euros ($1.24 trillion). At a banking conference in Frankfurt on Friday, Draghi said the central bank will "do what it must" on asset buying to lift inflation.

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