Wednesday, December 10, 2014
12/10/14 Comment Cleaner
Man it's ugly out there today. It's hard to shake the feeling Oil is telling us something other than a supply/ demand imbalance and a strong dollar, but that's what I'm going to do. Isn't this what always happens? What happened to that 2nd tidal wave of foreclosures that never came? Ukraine? Ebola? US debit?...etc., etc., etc.
This might be easy to say only being 20% invested, but the damage is real. And costly. So be it.
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And of course the only one I really would be interested in is ENPH, and it's flat.
ReplyDeleteDan Dicker @Dan_Dicker 5h5 hours ago
ReplyDeleteHere's a list of the walking dead -- http://ow.ly/i/7ThZh #shaleplayers #debt #bankruptcy $HK $MHR $SD
BXE is down a similar amount as these, so it seems BXE is being priced for bankruptcy as well.
DeleteI agree with everything you're saying. Short term could be more pain.
ReplyDeleteI was warned several months ago by my contacts in West Texas not to enter b/c Saudi Arabia always shows up to squash these oil booms. Just sayin' that's precisely what they told me based on their past experiences, not that they have any particular level of insight beyond that. They also say and have said for decades, the oil does exist.
ReplyDelete269k tons - The amount of plastic waste floating in Pacific? "Majority of this by weight, is comprised of fishing nets and buoys."
ReplyDeleteBetcha if you bought some FCAU here before close you could sell it for a gain in AH?
ReplyDeleteUgly action out there today. Took a beating on both YNDX and FCAU. Hope others did better than me. Will be interesting to see what happens in coming days and weeks.
ReplyDeleteyeah man. rough rough day for me. Had no idea we'd see FCAU come all the way back down to here. will be interesting to see how it prices out (convertible).
Deletei'll took a lot of risk off today at around $11.60 which is an amateur move but it is what it is.
TEP is holding up pretty well, as if cost of production in the Bakken is not a large concern at current prices and the flow is expected to continue.
ReplyDeleteBXE - Looks like this baby is cooked based on the action, I have to think confidence is low. Especially since it was one of the price leaders from the early beginning.
Well, the good thing (for me) is my percentage of money in commodity stocks is now under 9% (due to now being down 31% YTD), but generally the rest of my stocks are hanging in pretty well and mostly up for the year. December was the worst month of the year , but my portfolio peaked in August and is now down 4.6% from there.
ReplyDeleteI'm not concerned about a 4.6% pullback and I think this is just a run of the mill pullback, lead down by energy, before we resume the bull market. Things are seasonally very strong, the US economy is quite strong, rates are low, inflation is low, jobs are improving - I see nothing that would indicate the bull is over.
The big risk for 2015 is a 1998 Russia type situation where the rising dollar causes other major problems.
The big question I am asking myself is whether I should be scaling into this energy pullback, or do we get a long multi-year bottom in energy that just grinds everyone out. I know a lot of the value guys are heavy into energy as the stocks are cheap assuming the normal price for oil is in the $80 range.
"The big risk for 2015 is a 1998 Russia type situation where the rising dollar causes other major problems."
DeleteThat could be a risk for sure. A combo of higher dollar + sharply lower oil has to be causing major pain for a few larger countries. I worry that there's a panic selloff coming.
Mark,
ReplyDeletea major pullback now with you sitting 80% in cash would be a gift and outstanding market timing on your part.
But I hope we don't give it to you!
Here's something Detroit might lean from Quebec: "Quebec Hikes Vehicle Registration Pegged To Engine Displacement" Could get some major mileage out of increase in taxes, think of the possibilities, there must be plenty of unexpolored avenues for enhancing tax revenue.
ReplyDeleteI think Detroit could start with additional taxes for any vehicle built in the US, except for one built at the NUMI plant.
This company was the prime contractor for the Love Canal cleanup project, wonder if they might win contracts to clean up the coal-ash deposits around the decommissioned coal fired electric plants?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.law360.com/articles/597345/contractor-to-pay-2-72m-to-settle-epa-kickback-claims
GPRO - Tested the 200SMA today, this is getting interesting.
ReplyDeletePicked back up some of the shares of FCAU at under $11.30. This is quite the 3-day collapse.
ReplyDeleteHK and PXD are fully hedged for 2015 and 2016?
ReplyDeleteTook me forever to figure out who's a major supplier of fracking pipe, notice the fake bullish pop arranged for September.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.google.com/finance?q=EPA:VK&sa=X&ei=9N2IVLLRFvDHsQSq9IHYDA&ved=0CBMQowE.
So how'd concrete manufacturers fare today, anybody watching them?
Home builders are saying their outlook mainly consists of high-end homes, so probably concrete and energy, all the stuff low-income plebs living in housing projects might not need are probably going to come off their run.
About the only plays out there I can think of involve legislated success or objects high-end trust fund recipients might be interested in, such as shiny red cars or fancy aerial vehicles perhaps.
Construction is really busy here and well into next year. Probably means a top then.
DeleteEnergy - Looks like a 9% weighting is about right: "Energy: We reduced our sector allocation from 12.0% to 9.0% to match our US
ReplyDeleteEquity Strategy team’s downgrade of the Energy sector from overweight to market weight. Sold some PXD @ $145.53
Mark, how about tweeting Dan Dicker and asking him if HK has hedges out through 2016?
ReplyDeleteDone, but he wont reply.
DeleteIf I lose cable/power I'm sleeping at 2nds.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete