Wednesday, December 17, 2014

12/17/14 Comment Cleaner.

Working on my new trading platform.

111 comments:

  1. haha let me know how much it costs.

    I bought into WYNN today. Not sure where the bottom is. This 45% move down is fueled by fears of a crackdown / slowdown in Macau.

    Trades at 16X current year EPS and about 12X PY FCF. Pays a $6 dividend (roughly 4.4%).

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    1. Also some seasonality into play with WYNN as it has been up 9 out of the last 10 January's for an average gain of around 10%.

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  2. Proof of Concept:

    (a) EEM (Emerging Markets) currently +2% (+3.65% at the intraday high).
    (b) RSX (Russia) currently +6.57% (+10.6% at the intraday high).
    (c) EWZ (Brazil) currently +4.19% (+6.7% at the intraday high).
    (d) CAF (China 'A' shares) +2% (currently at the day's high).
    (e) GREK (Greece) currently +1.6% (+3.3% at the intraday high).

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    1. Did you play all of these? I traded GREK and VIP today for decent profits. Didn't hold them though.

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    2. I opened all of the above (+ RYWVX) at different times over the past two trading sessions. Unless something changes, I can't think of any reason to close the positions today.

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  3. Dude- if that's your trading platform how do you get anything done?

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    1. Very little and getting better at it everyday.

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  4. SN- That's the best mover I could find.

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  5. Here's one good reason NOT to move here...

    http://www.petaluma360.com/gallery/3265161-181/home-decorating-contest#slide=0

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    1. Now we know what's really been keeping you preoccupied!

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  6. Insider trader, er I mean ex hedge fund manager, Steve Cohen, buying into JONE

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/steven-cohen-buys-stake-texas-222015529.html

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    1. Hard to follow a guy in that has cheated in the past. Then again who's to say he ain't still cheating!

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    2. Good point TOF, that didn't click right away.

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  7. Us bulls could use some help here, from the likes of a regulatory loophole called "The Santa Clause".

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  8. ENSV - Today's action seems quite odd, surely someone was making a mistake?

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  9. Today was a 'major accumulation day' (MAD), where up volume is at least 9 times greater than down volume (17:1 today). MADs will usually (not always) signal an extended move higher. Thus I have no reason to close any of my positions right now.

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    1. Hmm, wonder if that holds true for oilers as well. Crude gave up a relatively large percentage of it's gain rather quickly. No telling what might happen overnight, hopefully it doesn't turn ugly in the oil patch.

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    2. Certainly a lot of short covering in oil, but a lot of rally's start that way.'

      OIl futures look flat so far tonight. Wonder if Putin's speech tomorrow will have any affect.

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  10. NES: Is it safe to assume Heckmann isn't infallible?

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  11. Apparently, due to overproduction of gas and oil, the FED can't raise rates.

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  12. BLL is at the bottom of a very well defined channel.

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  13. Looks like the rally continues - Oil up 2.5%, US futures up 1% and Europe up 2%.

    Seems to be just followon from yesterday'a good action.

    Putin gave his speech, which sounded like he said all the right things and RSX is up 3% pre-market.

    Let's see if this holds or turns back down.

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  14. SPX - Looking at this chart it seems the right shoulder is in place. LOL, unbelievable.

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  15. Aren't there any North Korea ETF's?

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  16. CVEO - Anybody for some hotel hell? :)

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  17. Mark, what's up with that, I seem to recall you're into fat chicks?

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    1. For once, it'd be nice to see Victoria Secret include a fat chick in their fashion show, don't you think?

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  18. Oil can't seem to make it over $69, so far looks like a failure at that resistance.

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  19. OIBR - This one's been down a lot lately, must be good news about to surface.

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  20. JONE - Cohen must be taking his gains today?

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  21. No one seems to believe in this bounce. Thus the contrarian trade is to continue holding. The sell signal will arrive when investors finally decide to chase the train.

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    1. Oh I believe it in. Yesterday was a major conviction day.

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  22. I've managed to trade out of FCAU and miss a couple of drops or buy something else that has outperformed which has helped me increase my portfolio by 8.8% more than if I just held. I'm in a tax free account so this isn't a big deal (trading in and out). However, the risk is always that I'm out when a big move occurs. This is always the risk with over trading but I've found over the years that I've been able to generate higher returns by holding stuff over shorter time frames and catching other stuff that's either really beaten down (like WYNN) or that has a near term catalyst. I always wonder if its the right strategy but it has been working for a while so probably not really smart to just switch strategies and assume I can do well with a new one.

    My concern right now is trying to best position my portfolio in what I think the overall market is going to go through. I guess that's a stupid way of putting it because probably should always be looking at it like that but I think its pretty important right now to get a good sense of what the market is going to favor as it is clearly becoming more selective. That's why people are having such a tough time this year. Think about it: consumer discretionary stocks, for example, are completely divided: look at the performance of these stocks: CCL, UAL, WYNN, MGM, M, KORS...all basically in the same boat and all drastically different performance this year.

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  23. BALT - Okay, this one's red so must be a buy signal?

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    1. I don't know man. I still think that one has 50/50 odds of being toe tagged. Just a gut feeling that coal is going to drag that industry down to new depths.

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  24. GGN - Nicely green for some inexplicable reason. Has Russia stopped selling gold?

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  25. Seems to me like a low risk spot to buy FCAU here. because of the weak euro and it still consolidating the big gain from october it probably means we don’t have to rush all in at once. i’d be surprised they could push it below $11 given the huge amount of buying that went through around the convertible bond.

    i guess if you want to get aggressive its probably not a horrible spot to load up and maybe say if it drops below $10.50 then I’m out. but i just don’t see it happening with the ferrari ipo coming next year. I'll probably start buying back in over the next few days.

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  26. ENSV - CP, unfortunately I don't know the story well enough to know what the impact crashing oil has on it. I wish I did. I think this is why I have largely avoided energy / mining stocks. Its hard for me to figure out how to price oil or gold or other metals. I'm sure I'll always keep in mind this whole cycle from boom to bust. Gives you good perspective going forward.

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  27. FCAU - in the red, with SPX up over 20pts...... Only way to win in this game is by trading the index and not the underlying, apparently.

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  28. ENSV - Cancelled my bid just in time, I guess the new price of oil and layoffs in the oil patch aren't priced in yet. But I do appreciate the big pump job around the September top for what it was.

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  29. ANGO - You guys still don't like this one at all?

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  30. FMD - IRS drops case. Stock up 150%

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    1. Doesn't seem fair we can't write off opportunity costs

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    2. Looks like they're still losing plenty of money flying fatso around.

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    3. yeah he has probably single handedly milked that company out of hundreds of millions. i tried asking questions on one of their conference calls but they wouldn't take my questions. I was hoping to ask him to justify his ridiculously high salary, private jet, and stock options. It wasn't worth it though.

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    4. Hmm, no telling how much they save with low jet fuel prices though, could nudge the needle well into the black for s hort while until he upgrades to a larger jet.

      We should own the jet rental company instead, or INT b/c INT refuels fatty's plane twice a day.

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  31. BXE - Remind me to sell this on the next pop of oil to $59 quadruple top resistance.

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  32. INT - Did you guys get in this morning?

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  33. BLL - Bot bad huh? I think these companies that convert the hydrocarbons that are in a glut cycle into finished products and feedstock for making all the plastic junk we devour daily should be in a strong position.
    BLL/BERY/CCK

    Really don't see how this isn't a no brainer.

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  34. "I guess that's a stupid way of putting it because probably should always be looking at it like that but I think its pretty important right now to get a good sense of what the market is going to favor as it is clearly becoming more selective."

    I agree with this. You now need to pick good sectors and then good stocks within those sectors. But that's OK, that's what markets do. Back in 2010 - 2011, almost every stock I look at looked good, but now I take a quick look at many and throw away.

    My plan for 2015, which I am still working on, is:

    1. We could have a very good year in broad markets with the best part of the presidential cycle kicking in. Plus, the improving economy and job market should drive better consumer sentiment which could push the market to higher multiples.
    2. Within the US, I think financials do well. They are one of the cheapest sectors of the market and gain from an improving economy and interest rate environment.
    3. The European stocks should outperform this year as they address their issues and play catch-up valuation wise to the US.
    4. Commodities, especially oil, need to be watched carefully. If we get a rebound in oil prices, many stocks, especially small caps, are incredibly cheap.
    5. I am cautious and underweight Canadian stocks due to the high commodity exposure, overleveraged consumer, high real-estate prices. The Canadian stocks I do own are more internationally focused.

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    1. I guess the other thing is I'm staying away from emerging markets. I've only looked at a few stocks in these countries in the past and never found anything cheaper and better than north America / Europe, especially given the outsized country risk. Canada provides world-wide commodity exposure, so better to bet a stock here than try and figure out the risks of some of these other countries.

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    2. Yes, seems obvious candidates are those who benefit from low commodities, stagnant low rates and high $US, who are they?

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  35. MTW - Ah, here's one that IS participating (woo-hoo!). Based on DBC, natural resources still appear to be in oversupply and the beating is depressing.

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  36. UHS - Not sure if overpriced considering it's not sporting a 3,000 PE like so many other goofy $9B model airplane and camera on a stick companies but consider that a health care policy is mandated by Federal law.

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  37. RSX - Here we go again, Mother (f'n) Russia Guess Putin didn't impress?

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  38. I picked up some DSKY today at prices between $17.6 and $17.85. 5% position. I like the platform they built out for gaming as it is far less risky than an individual developer of games. Game developers come to them and they take a cut of the pie. They distribute the games through their own game center and a website as well as through app stores and pre installations on cell phones. Revenues have grown tremendously and the stock is really cheap...trades at around 10x estimated EPS. they don't have the single game development risk that others like KING or GLUU or ZNGA have.

    They got venture $$ from Redpoint Ventures and Legend Capital, two pretty big VC firms so I think the credibility issue isn't as big. But it's in China and knowing what people will pay for it is anyone's guess and the biggest risk. They also have risk going up against Tencent and others.

    Just looking for a trade though and thinking this base it has been building for almost 3 months is going to give way to higher prices.

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  39. I'm sorta miffed as to why BXE can't seem to make $10ish, sorta seems like it's not going there anytime soon? May as well sell and buy FMD, it's about the same quality.

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  40. "Yes, seems obvious candidates are those who benefit from low commodities, stagnant low rates and high $US, who are they?"

    low commodities -> helps consumers and businesses which consumer commodities
    low rates -> Helps borrowers (consumer and business)
    high US$ - helps importers

    So, if consumers are better and imports are cheaper, I think you'd want to look at US retailers, non-US auto manufacturers - I guess anyone whose costs are going down to the dollar, but customer is getting better.

    On the cheap commodity consumption side, maybe chemicals, steel, aluminum.

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    1. I would choose plastics, have believed this for a long time now.

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    2. Concrete seems to be waffling around in a range despite low energy prices, so I'm not convinced middle class wages are actually receiving much love. Consider, global warming is driven by the masses propensity to consume, not by the upper classes. Thus I'm thinking middle class growth is quietly being suppressed.

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  41. SNE - I was so looking forward to watching Sony's new movie in a totally empty theater, now I'll have to stay home and stream it from the internet I guess?

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  42. SCCO - I forgot to notice this one traded to $26, close to the old support. Was too busy watching BXE lose the normal $0.20~$0.30 it always manages to regurgitate without fail, every single day. Thanks for f__king me again, Bay Street.

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  43. As of yesterday, we were back where we were at the highs in September. Just going by feel, the more above these highs seems more durable than the one we had in November. Feelings are not the best thing to invest on (for me anyhow), but sure seems like we are ready to go.

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    1. You know what I just heard? Fidel Castro has been building out resort areas and golf courses in Cuba. Wonder what his motivation might be?

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    2. http://havanajournal.com/travel/C18/

      Pretty much all Cuba hotels are developed by foreign companies with a deal to hire Cubans and split the profits. I don't think Cuba has the capital to build their own.

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    3. Perhaps, I wouldn't have guessed Castro was a poor man, himself.
      What do you think of the concrete industry, surely it's a buy ahead of an economic boom, wouldn't you think?

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  44. ALDW/TSO/VLO/WNR - Shouldn't refineries be jumping rather than crashing if middle class American earnings are robust? Seems not only have producers run into major trouble but refiners are joining the party as well?

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  45. Results of my weekly scan for recent resignations or convictions of our fine upstanding local politicians or elected officials this week, to my surprise there's only one. Turns out this elected official was simply having felony misdemeanor sex with a 17 year old secretarial assignee, and wasn't convicted of child sexual molestation charges. Whew, close one, otherwise he may not have qualified for re-election!:

    "Va. Del. Joseph Morrissey to resign in wake of conviction but run again for his seat. On June 30, 2014, Joseph D. Morrissey was indicted on felony charges of indecent liberties with a minor, possession and distribution of child pornography, and electronic solicitation of a minor, in addition to a misdemeanor charge of contributing to the delinquency of a minor"

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  46. Wow what a day!

    Saw this note on AA today...I still have AA in my in-laws portfolio from last week based on the buy signal it had.

    "Paretosh Misra of Morgan Stanley revised his fourth-quarter estimates for Alcoa Inc (NYSE: AA) on Wednesday, while maintaining an Overweight rating and $20 price target.
    Misra is now projecting Alcoa to earn $0.30 per share in the fourth quarter, up from a prior estimate of $0.25 .
    According to Misra, every $10 per barrel change in oil prices translates to an $80 million to $90 million change in annual EBITDA for Alcoa. The analyst believes that aluminum producers benefit from lower anode costs and lower fuel oil costs.
    Looking forward, Misra is projecting Alcoa's first quarter 2015 earnings per share should improve "sequentially" by $0.03 per share if spot prices remain at current levels.
    Finally, Misra believes that Alcoa could announce production cuts at its Spanish smelters early next year, which could prove to be a "catalyst" for the aluminum sector."

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  47. CP,

    I really have no idea about the supply/demand dynamics of the concrete market.

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    1. I'm puzzled your model doesn't examine demand for basic building materials such as concrete, aggregates, drywall.... just aluminum.

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  48. "Cuba is an infrastructure play"
    Hmm, doesn't that translate to construction materials?
    Are there cellphone services, ie: towers and such in Cuba?
    Maybe Cuba will build everything using Aluminum......

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  49. MLM - This company produces construction materials. Check it out and consider their fundamentals to confirm your thesis if you agree with me that demand for construction materials should be tiled positively in an expanding and growing economy.

    I already hear the crickets chirping.

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  50. Thankfully easy FED money at the expense of the US taxpayer isn't responsible for the largest single day in years.

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  51. AGCO - Even this one hasn't performed as badly as BXE, it's hard to find stuff our there that has collapsed like this one has.

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  52. Quite a bit of volume on the SPY today, did it really trade to $213 far and above previous high of $208.5 ?

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  53. UNH - Shoulda bought this one instead of chasing garbage and getting sliced up.

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  54. CP, metals are easier because there are futures markets and you can get inventory stock data and Canada is the world
    eader in raising money for miners, so we have lots of info. Those other commodities don't seem to have that same level of info.

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  55. CP, you were asking about winners from lower oil prices and I came across this in the Globe and Mail - makes sense:

    Among the winning industries, think airlines first. One estimate I saw suggested the drop in oil prices would translate into a $10-billion boost for airline companies such as Air Canada, WestJet and American Airlines. Other potential winners include automobile and parts manufacturers like General Motors, trucking firms such as Transforce and Knight Transportation, chemical companies such as Clorox, and the makers and retailers of consumer products like Wal-Mart and Canadian Tire.

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    1. Yes, this is why I've been watching (BWA) and participating in autos (FCAU), seems a construction segment rally should include concrete considering the quantity of energy involved in making concrete as well.

      Banks should do well too, thus I agree with DB but still interested in regionals.

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    2. Yeah and I think infrastructure spending will continue and maybe increase which will use concrete.

      I own CAM.TO which plays in this space. They do major steel projects (they have $200 million in the new Atlanta Falcon's stadium). They are headquartered in Quebec, but do probably 90% of their business in the US. The concrete companies may be just as good or even better, but I've probably spent 40 hours reading and listening to CAM and am happy with it, so don't feel the need to look at other similar companies.

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  56. RBC out with their ideas for 2015 - a number of Canadian and US listed stocks:

    http://business.financialpost.com/2014/12/18/30-stocks-to-own-in-2015/?__lsa=d12d-f567

    The 30 global stock picks from RBC Dominion Securities Inc. sound a bit unwieldy until you realize that they form three big themes for 2015: Get bullish on U.S. consumer stocks, buy beaten-up resource producers and prepare for higher U.S. interest rates.

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    1. Got a head start on rates I think, by selling NLY. Not sure how to get into consumer market, perhaps FCAU or SHLD? Resource producers are iffy unless China and Europe can gain some momentum, China seems to have much slower growth but that could resume.

      Doesn't ABAC seem priced rather high?

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  57. X - This one has closed the July gap up, oil industry probably will be auctioning their pipe so maybe steel recycling will have supply, but infrastructure and construction may soak that up and more?

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  58. FRO - Not sure if tankers will resume transporting oil during the price war but seems I'm not the only one who thinks that might be the case. How long does the oil price war last, if the $US takes off to the upside what likely to happen in global markets?

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  59. CP, re the smaller oil companies like BXE, pretty much all the junior oil companies have been crushed. Take a look at ZJO.TO (junior oil ETF). Down 45% since June, would be over 50% in US$

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    1. Yeah, problem is I rode it down. Canadian producers are not in a good position, Marcellus shale is gonna kill them based on what I've been reading.

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  60. Lots of insider buying going on in the Canadian Energy stocks - buys to sells is now 675% - was under 200% up summer into fall until prices started falling.

    Guys on TV are saying "yeah, we've been through this many times before, we'll get through it again" and "it's not as bad as other oil crashes we've seen". Either smart or stubborn

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    1. Miners said the same thing, they still stink. The storyline is practically identical aside from the underlying being arguably more useful (Can't eat gold or silver and they aren't legal tender).

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    2. May as well own MAT seems like, at least they're not battling against what seems to be a huge bubble?

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    3. RBA seems priced for a period of auctioning off oil industry equipment, pipe that never will be used and pipeline construction equipment, several oil companies have announced cancellation of planned pipeline projects.

      Refiners have even come off, that's kinda surprising and might be a better opportunity unless they came off b/c oil is about to go ballistic. Brent fell I think, so the spread narrowed thus US refiners are being squeezed should help foreign refiners though? If foreign refiners are taking off, that means tankers should as well, right?

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  61. And as far as Saudia Arabia goes, I recall watching on TV a couple years ago they were working on drilling new fields, a large one that was coming to production. I guess that's they're new source of competitive oil (unless they're bluffing).

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  62. DB - Substantial drop, so perhaps something's not quite right with this one. Could be a good bit of downside about to occur so will refrain until some confirmation appears.

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  63. Wonder why US refiners have been whacked so hard, Brent/WTIC spread is usually the reason.

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  64. BOIL - Down a mere 9%, gotta love that entry, huh? Forecast here is relatively warm next week, so natty might be a little soft.

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  65. GM - I love that guy Buffett, ya know? Everything he touches turns to gold seems like. Take railroads for instance, that was a really smart move a few years back.

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    1. I'm still sitting on UNP with a good gain. Stock is relatively expensive, but I suspect if I sold, I'd never get back in.

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  66. TD out with a whack of energy company downgrades - they are using a price of $65 WTIC for 2015 and a long term price of $75.

    The good thing these lower oil prices are getting built into estimates. The real question is whether these estimates are accurate, which I don't think anyone, other than maybe the odd Saudi Price, really knows

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    1. Nice to hear they're way out ahead of the pack on that energy stuff, predicting the past is nice work if you can get it.

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  67. Here's a listing of recycling stocks, if we're really serious about reducing carbon footprint (getting rid of coal was a huge one but not without consequences) then these should be jumping, right? I mean for the very long term, with typical setbacks from disturbances and technology improvements of course.

    So if we like solar then why do we never discuss this sector, it could potentially far outperform solar, no?

    http://caps.fool.com/tag/recycling.aspx

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  68. One more thing then I'll try to shut up b/c I'm sure it gets old, but now we're back at the top and the few stocks I hold have underperformed (as is typical, sigh) there's much less risk in holding a short hedge, don't you think?

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  69. ALDW - This one came back as I suspected, sorta seems like an opportunity somewhere around here to me.

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  70. SPXS - Wonder if shorts are concerned about that huge IH&S in the SPX? Man I'd be a little scared of that, would that keep you from making a trade on the short side, seems like the really hard trade to make, huh?

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  71. Analysts - My broker rushed to downgrade NLY at those scary lows we went through just over a yer or so ago and have been bearish on it ever since despite having raised the price objective once or twice. I was deep under water but rode it our (paid a dividend, so why not?)

    BXE pays no dividend, debt is mounting, wells are coming on line everywhere so increasing competition. But, replacing coal will be a huge challenge, the energy density of coal is tremendous and it's going to take one heck of a lot of natural gas to replace it.

    Anyway back to NLY, recently, it seems like it's being sold off and felt weak, which is why I sold it. Could be the previous downcycle didn't turn out the way some folks had anticipated but this time it might (sell mreits, buy insurance). On top of this, my broker is all warm and fuzzy for reits of all kinds right now, all except NLY of course, and the reit report is nothing less than boggling for me, my eyes glazed over attempting to glean something from it. Take a look if you have time and see if you agree there seems to be some blowing of smoke, or maybe you can agree with some of it:

    http://www.merrilledge.com/publish/content/application/pdf/gwmol/US-REITs-2015-Year-Ahead.pdf

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  72. BB, yes in retrospect I can see the logic of going big into railroad. At the time it scared me due to I thought they were losing coal but didn't consider transporting oil would more than compensate. I had no idea there would be the volume, especially since it was unclear if there would be enough gas to replace coal, it was entirely confusing.

    But buffett obviously had it all figured out from the beginning, that's b/c he has experience and knowledge necessary for understanding the mechanisms, vision only money and experience can buy.

    Hunts ketchup is the worst/horrible tasting ketchup on store shelves, wonder if he's already fixed that? The guy is not to be ignored.

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