I'm finding some decent bargains in the retail space. KORS is interesting to me. Trades at about 15.9x trailing earnings. Lumped in with COH and maybe because COH is making a comeback people assume KORS is going to dive? The problem to me is the business hasn't been around long enough to make it a sure thing so I don't know for sure if it could just drop off a cliff. I feel like COH or RL is more of a sure thing.
Consumer demand should be improving ad well with lower oil, more jobs and pay increasing even at the low end. My daughters would do COH shopping on their minimum wage jobs when they were teenagers and had no expenses, so the boost in minimum wage should help a lot of retail.
Yeah I bought back into that but way too small. It broke out and retested $12.6ish. I had a larger position previously but sold at a loss. it's a cheap company.
I did. Sold it today for a small gain as it was down big heading into today. Small position though. I have been selling most of my positions today. Only holding very small piece in TA, some RL and YNDX now. Will probably sell TA and might even sell RL. I like it down here as far as trading goes but the valuation isn't incredibly cheap. Trades at 17.7 pe which for a company not growing that fast it's not that cheap. Companies like TUP GNC and others that I've followed for a while and didn't really act enough of got down to 12x so there's a chance this happens with RL.
KORS is one that could get down to 12 or so if there's some more panic selling.
I'm beginning to think oil is getting closer to a bottom. If we look back to the 2009 lows and use that as a guide then maybe we get one more big drop and then its the bottom. But it seems like we're getting pretty close.
Part of the reason I started buying YNDX here is if oil does indeed catch a bid then I think the beaten down Russian stocks will rise too. I think YNDX has the potential to go to $22 to $24. The latter would be a near 50% rise from here. Valuation can support that price too as its trading at 18x pe TTM and my assumption is earnings have been depressed due to the recession in Russia. If you see a $10 rise in the price of oil then you could see a major sentiment change in stocks like YNDX. If not, then its still cheap enough in my opinion.
A rebound in oil is the reason I sold VA today and will be selling TA. If it doesn't rebound then at least I have some gains from both of those.
Hard to get real excited about market here for me. RL does not seem to want to go up really and agree with your comments Barron's fund have own this thing since the 65's and is a good fund for finding interesting stocks.
Looking at five year returns precious metals most beat up, emerging mkts kind of flat and LT oil has to be interesting here. My gut says financials are going to do good this year.
Encana (ECA +3.6%) says ready to take advantage of the collapse in crude oil prices to do more deals, CEO Doug Settles says, as the announced 25% cut to its 2015 capital budget ensures there is enough cash coming in to cover costs and consider acquisitions. "The longer this [crude oil price] environment persists, the more likely something will occur. There’s lots of people talking," Settles says. ECA’s reduced $2.1B budget this year assumes it can reduce costs by 15%, the CEO says, adding that the company has secured rate cuts of as much as 50% in some areas following talks with drillers and other service suppliers. ECA is not planning job cuts after cutting its workforce by ~25% last year but headcount will fall this year as it chooses not to replace employees heading into retirement, Settles says.
Okay Mark, I'm interested in the audio thing b/c I want to put all my albums on a droid pad. There are also some droid apps I'm interested in and actually would be interested in developing some droid apps as well, so far is seems apple ipad doesn't do a couple things I want such as transmitting wirelessly in an uncompressed format, the compression is layered such that it's compressed twice unless you use apple's protocol which nobody else uses even Apple?
So WTF have you got going on there? Oh, I still have vinyl to convert, already converted to other formats and some of it into MP3
"AAC (Advanced Audio Coding) – unlike SBC and aptX, AAC is a codec popular outside of wireless applications, including Apple’s iTunes platform and YouTube. It was designed to achieve better sound quality than mp3 at similar bit rates. Unlike aptX, it is supported by iOS devices. Apple implements AAC over Bluetooth at about 250 kbps (source – pdf), which should compete in fidelity with the best-quality mp3s or any other lossy codec. However, at this time AAC support in wireless headphones is not very common."
And that's a lot of equipment, maybe there's an easier solution? I haven't held a digital media player in my hands in maybe 6 months probably but I'm looking for one.
(a) GDX (miners) rallies today, +2.4%. IMO, it's a rally to be sold. (b) EEM (Emerging Markets) -0.2%, not helped by a -1.62% pullback in EWZ (Brazil). PBR -5.6% on a Moody's downgrade of their debt. (c) OIH up just +0.34% against the backdrop of a +3% rally in crude. (d) Bonds not giving up any ground. TLT +0.34%. (e) US indexes flat.
I would tend to give bonds the benefit of the doubt (ie, equities are probably headed down short term). In any case, I see no low-risk entries today.
I made one trade earlier in the day. CHK (Chesapeake Energy) sold off -12% on 'bad' guidance. Opened a position @ 17.67, closed @ 18.01 (a relatively easy +1.9%).
I also haven't converted any analog sources. (records). I saved all my CD's (44.1/16), but really, I listen to files I downloaded... http://www.hdtracks.com/ ... or streaming from Tidal. So really, all of my stuff it based on coverting digital files.
Nyquist Rate: "the minimum rate at which a signal can be sampled without introducing errors, which is twice the highest frequency present in the signal."
I guess the ACC you heard wasn't implemented correctly b/c my understanding is that wouldn't be double encoded but sent as the originally encoded signal (such as MP3). The protocol wasn't established correctly. Losses occur from double encoding, no need to encode what's already encoded (MP3).
What you want to do, is transmit the already encoded data as is, in the originally encoded format without further encoding(double encoding causes losses).
SBC does this over Bluetooth but Apple doesn't offer it, they offer something else incompatible with the rest of the world? ALAC is MP4 apparently, which can be used for video as well as audio but I'm not interested in video or anything more compressed than MP3 b/c MP3 works great as is and it's a well accepted standard for audio.
As far as calling it something other than what it really is (MP3 or MP4=ALAC?), whatever the algo was used for encoding the digital data doesn't need further encoding, thus it's best to send it in the currently encoded format in which it was originally encoded.
SBC transmits the data via bluetooth without further encoding, but might be olde way of doing things? Anyway, I can purchase the equipment to receive and decode bluetooth MP3 and I think the android implements this capability but I don't want to end up with something obsolete.
So I'm confused about what Apple is doing exactly, hopefully it's not double encoding b/c that would be lossy.
I've converted some vinyl to MP3, but a lot of this vinyl is already available encoded to MP3 so not much need to convert unless it's crazy sampled at 320khz or something. Unless you really want that vinyl sound of the stylus dragging along the groove? Maybe that's what you're going after? I'm not trying for that myself but the true definition would include this characteristic.
But, both MP# and MP$ are compressed formats so if you don't want compression then you should go with WAV which can always be compressed to anything else. The compression(encoding) causes losses and WAV is uncompressed, the same as audio on a CD.
Oh, we don't use CD's anymore, we buy WAV from APPL or what are we doing exactly?
I guess you could transmit WAV over bluetooth but I'm not sure how lossy the bluetooth compression is, that might sound like crap too. I'd like to try SBC, which transmits the MP3 as encoded, but not sure if that would be a waste of money incompatible with the remainder of the world..
As far as the math goes, a 20,000 Hertz signal needs to be sampled 2x per second to capture a full wavelength, this is the nyquist rate. The other aspect involves the number of bits per sample, 2^16 bits is 65,536 levels of resolution per channel so would be a bit rate of 44.1ksps*32bits=1,411.2Kbps was chosen for CD audio (uncompressed, I believe). MP3 compresses 11:1 supposedly, thus 128kbps is CD-Audio quality? Sounds good to me.
FLAC - just 60% compression, doesn't seem reasonable for portable mass storage and I doubt I can hear better than CD quality assuming the audio system even can come close, which is doubtful the response is flat anyway.
"FLAC's algorithm can typically be reduced to 50–60% of its original size[4] and decompressed to an identical copy of the original audio data."
Same applies to AIFF for my purposes (Interesting this is an old Amiga approach!):
"AIFF is uncompressed (which aids rapid streaming of multiple audio files from disk to the application), and is lossless. Like any uncompressed, lossless format, it uses much more disk space than MP3—about 10MB for one minute of stereo audio at a sample rate of 44.1 kHz and a bit depth of 16 bits."
So I still like 128kbps MP3..... Not sure why those guys don't want to use it aside from maybe creating demand for larger and larger memory requirements and increased power consumption? Why not take advantage of the weaknesses of the human hearing?
"The MP3 lossy audio data compression algorithm takes advantage of a perceptual limitation of human hearing called auditory masking."
A little info I heard, despite importing what might turn out to be illegally harvested wood the earnings fell short. Can't imagine impossible to obtain exotic wood from a tropical forest wouldn't be a hot seller.... damn iphones!
I'm liking this current market. February is turning out to be probably the 7th best month % wise I've had in 15 years of investing.
It was a pretty good month to just sit on stocks as they went pretty consistently up, so good for my buy cheap and hold for a couple years type approach.
The other thing I keep thinking is it is the best time of the presidential cycle and the best year (5th) of the decade, and people still really aren't excited about stocks, so maybe this is the year we get the "animal spirits" going and have a +25% or +30% year. If we do, it will be hard to find good places to buy.
CP- Your a lot smarter than me. I just know what I hear...and the itunes files are ACC with about 128kbps-256kbps.
Tidal is about 800-1,000kbps
FLAC/AIIF run from 800-1,600kbps depending on the sample frequency and bit depth.
It's VERY hard for ME to hear the difference between 44.1khz/16bit and 198khz/24bit, but if I'm really listening it's there and enjoyable. Mostly on the very low and high end. For example, a symbol hit will last a tad longer with the larger kbps rates.
If you have 32 bit DACS, then why record/play 24 bits? Anyway, you must have dog ears!!! None the less, I'm looking to beam portable music wirelessly aim to figure out what works and doesn't. As far as what sounds decent enough, MP3 at 128kbps in two channels is good enough for my ears. BTW, there are no decent 2-channel receivers on the market, all anymore, just humongo boxes, receivers are something that never shrank? :)
I think 50 WattsRMS/2ch is all a sane person should need for a reasonable stereo, mostly it's all about the speakers and headphones are out of the question for me.
So if the goal is to make it sound like vinyl, do you mean to duplicate the sound of the stylus dragging over the surface? That might be one thing people really like about records.... We didn't used to like the pops, keeping them clean helped and using a good stylus avoided wearing them out, start recording AFTER the stylus sets down,,,,, etc...
The old argument in favor of vacuum tube amps was ping noise has a better sound than solid state shot noise, LOl I guess we were listening to the amp with no signal?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shot_noise
Other than that stuff I'm pretty sure I can't hear the difference between CD Redbook 44.1k samples/sec 16bitx2 and vinyl, except the CD stuff has all the stylus noise taken out.
HD does always seem pretty empty given the size of the stores (except spring planting and a few other times a year), but I think hardware is a good margin business as people will pay up for the advice. They do make a lot of money.
I've been thinking that it would be good to find an investment that benefits from US housing growth as this should be a tailwind for the next few years. The home builders and HD are the obvious ones. Not sure what else, but sounds like LL is not the way.
CP- Love that song. It sounds like a typical compressed file. Even on my Macbook the 44.1/16 version streamed from Tidal sounds like a revelation. Give it a try, it's free. https://tidalhifi.com/us/video/explore-tidal
Note- If your going to listen on your computer run it in on Chrome or download the player from Tidal for best audio quality. Of course on a 'real' system the quality is stunning.
Itunes can play AIIF files if you can find them up to 96Khz. Of course that isn't what you get buying them from itunes. I think I can email some if you want. Not totally sure how that works.
Not sure what qualifies as stunning, but an uncompressed 44.1k samples/sec 32 bits (2 channels stereo for two ears) 1,411 kbps and THD at that rate is imperceptible.
Not sure how any improvement can be made over that but it's considerably more of a challenge to transmit wirelessly than 128kbps, which is an acceptable resolution for my purposes.
Some of my MP3 stuff is encoded(compressed) to 320kbps (vs uncompressed 1,411kbps) and granted even that sounds incrementally better than 128kbps but the space savings is worth the hit to me under average listening conditions. Many speakers can't reproduce the range anyway.
For instance, in the car I'm driving currently there are two original factory speakers in the upper dash pad, that's it. It's the worst case. The boat doesn't even have speakers yet, hard to break down and cut holes in a boat, LOL... Have been considering it though, if I can get the system worked out.
Something like this might work for the boat, although using BT I shouldn't need access to the face panel so it's more than I really want, I just want a box I can mount inside the helm or something that has a BT interface thus I want to stream to it from an iPAD-like device of some sort.
ROSE- Not a lot, a small cap that has cleaned portfolio to Eagleford and Permian. Quick look is that they will reallly struggle with cash flow/debt, already drawing on revolver and derivatives in the tank, saw that they cut capex to 350 MM from 1.2 Billion. They will likely need 55$ oil to survive this coming year. Eagleford assets are mediocre, but Permian has some runway if they ever get to drill them ! They were a darling early on because of focus on two plays, but this will be a tough year with only $ 350 MM capex. Familiar story for this part of industry. Probably not a lot of downside risk, but I would want to examine their hedge book closely for 2015, will be a differentiator for small companies. Their financial disclosures suck, really poorly done in my view...too focused on operational details, not on cash flow.
damn man i remember looking at that at $27 last year. just reinforces the notion of ignoring negativity during downturns in stocks. volaility is part of the stock market.
IP - Wonder how many millions more little cardboard boxes and econ-disaster packing materials are consumed now that everything sold is an internet sale that needs to be shipped by gorilla courier?
probably makes sense to start paying very close attention to oil stocks, as well as russian and brazilian stocks and how they are trading relative to oil. those that are beginning to diverge from the price of oil are the ones that should outperform in the next few months as oil presumably starts to bottom out. not sure if we see a lower low than the low $40's but even if we do and we see stocks like YNDX, SLCA, SDRL, ENSV, BAS, BXE, QIWI, MBT, SBS, etc starting to outperform and not make new lows then those are the ones I want to focus on.
It makes no sense that stocks like YNDX QIWI and some others trading with the price of oil but if you look back they have done that for a while now. oil impacts Russia and Brazil and people sell first without thinking it through logically. that's where i think the opportunity lies as those types of businesses are very strong longer term businesses despite all the nonsense going on in ukraine / russia. Yandex is a powerhouse in the internet space. and it owns some pretty key properties like Auto.ru (think BITA or autotrader for Russia) that could be very large businesses as well. This is one I'm definitely getting very excited about.
YNDX looks like it's gonna start moving up, to me. Might be b/c there are so many people interested in getting a piece of the pie seem like it about has to at least melt up..
"FCAU - Fiat came in "DEAD LAST" for reliabilty... This is probably old news."
When you talk to Dodge / Chrysler buyers, they often focus on the value, not the Consumer Report reliability. Their vehicles are cheap, which means if you have to spend a bit more on maintenance, you still do fine (usually)
Also, this year, for the first time in a many years, some FCAU vehicles (Dodge Durango for 1) made the Consumer Reports recommended list, so they are making progress.
And the other factor is, a lot of their vehicles are pretty cool and people tend to like their looks.
The Fiat brand was the focus, Chrysler portion hasn't done too badly but I'm still concerned about the automatic transmissions. There's room for improvement, which can be a great thing if the problems are priced in and improvement hasn't.
TOF, that's how CBI got so cheap, because people traded it down with the price of oil, even though it is a small part of their business - turned out to be a good buying opportunity.
With stocks like YNDX, I wonder how much of their trading is ETF and market based, so it could be just getting pushed around with the broad Russian market.
Reminiscences guy making a good point that the oil tankers rates are near all-time highs, even though the dry bulk (Baltic) rates near a mulitple year low. Going to take a look...
(a) RSX has pulled back to 17.45. (b) EEM treading water @ 40.75 (and RYWVX filled at 67.16 in the am window). I can't quantify my take, but it 'feels' like emerging markets have caught a bid the past few days, and EEM is consolidating in the 40+ range prior to a breakout higher. Naturally, I may be completely wrong. (c) FCX has pulled back to 21.12. (d) UGAZ has pulled back to 2.60, just above its 52-wk low of 2.40. (e) EWZ/ PBR also treading water @ 34.83/ 6.32.
Bonds have pulled back-> TLT now -1% to 128.9x. Energy has pulled back significantly-> USO (crude) -3.6%, OIH (Oil Services) -2.5%, and XLE (energy majors) -2.1%.
Should bonds remain weak into the close, I plan to open a position in RYGBX (Rydex 1.2x Government Long Bond). This may appear counter-intuitive (why bonds if I'm bullish on equities), but EEM and TLT have in fact correlated well at times and obviously I think it may be the case now.
NWPX - Damn, couldn't remember this ticker to save my ass...... What a mine field it is out there, feels almost like Armageddon the way some industrials have been bludgeoned. Must be overseas competition.
JONE - Wow, hadn't been checking this one but today was a blood bath. Just keep on hitting record oil production with virtually all producers guiding higher production, makes me want to buy a refiner.....
It does seem like most energy companies are cutting capex, but increasing production. A lot of the capex spending for 2015 is focused on getting wells online, so it should be a short increase in production, followed by a longer term decrease.
If this plays out, I would think we should see a final spike down in the oil price later this year, followed by falling production into 2016 as the capex cuts really hit.
So if the oil price rebounds around mid-2016 (assume with the driving season), then the stocks should start rebouncing 6 months ahead of that or around the end of 2015.
Maybe we just need to be patient this year. I'm still sitting on my energy stocks and just watching and waiting, but energy is one of the sectors with the best long term track records, so this could turn out to be a great buying opportunity.
I think it makes sense to play a bounce in some oil stocks here for the shorter term time period. It does feel like we will get another whoosh down but who the hell knows. I do like looking in areas that are getting taken down despite having little exposure to it like I mentioned before. Need to do research figuring that stuff out.
Fiat was worst, but Jeep was 2nd worst, Dodge 4th worst and Chrysler 6th worst.
I might be wrong on this, but I'd assume the same things that apply to the other FCAU brands also apply to FIAT. I know my wife thinks their cars are cute.
NWPX - looks like a cheap stock if you can trust the analyst estimates. They warned last quarter on 2015, so may not hit these. I looked at it to see if it was maybe a company that was being unfairly punished as an "oil related" stock, but they actually warned on competition in their water business.
Took a 5% position in EYES today right before the close. I snoozed on this one at $10 but I like buying this dip here and adding if need be. This is a pretty ridiculous technology.
I'm shocked its not a $2B company right now. An FDA approved product that is the only one on the market, selling for $140k per device with a potential $40 Billion (my estimate) market. It's at 1/4 that valuation.
Wonder if the health insurance program covers this? I think cataract surgery is covered (by Medicare, at least) and the results of this type of surgery are quite good at restoring lost sight.
(a) RSX (Russia) off @ 17.55 for a minor loss. (b) EEM (Emerging Markets) off @ 40.78 for a minor gain. (c) RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) will be taken off at the 1030 est window. Based on current bids for EWZ (Brazil), it will hopefully close with a minor gain. (A good example of the 'damned if I do, damned if I don't' type trade-> a choice between the pain of regret and the pain of discipline: closing positions here raises the probability that EEM will finally rally later in the day, whereas deciding to hold the position 'til end of day raises the probability the markets sell off!).
Note that bonds opened strong (TLT opened >129), but are now pulling back (TLT 128.61). Feet to the fire, I think markets sell off into the close, and bonds close strong. (A good example of one trader's observation [that it's] 'always fascinating to watch a high conviction bull turn into a high conviction bear as soon as he sells, subsequent price action be damned!')
Market seems stronger than I anticipated, that could change of course but the customary 30pt downside following FED testimony doesn't seem to be happening.
Maybe b/c the FED called it correctly, no rate hike, today's weal data supports that decision? I dunno..... Thinking out loud.
Homeland Security - Probably just a pipeline for spending money anyway, I've never seen any vehicles running around and the DC subway fire a couple weeks ago was a total fail b/c the DC fire department is obviously completely disorganized. Why wasn't Homeland Security there, it was an emergency fire in the damn subway they had the fans blowing the smoke the wrong way even.
You guys of course recognize that pickup trucks were meant to be ugly, I just wanted to point that out. The same applies to vinyl albums, the audio reproduction is fraught with imperfection that people seem to desire.
Added to my Standard Chartered SCBFF position. They got a new CEO and the stock is reacting well and still cheap and a good way to play the emerging markets rebound.
Also flipped my UNP back into CNI. Both are top tier rails and rails are one of the best long term buy and hold industries, so I'm just trying to generate a little extra profit by flipping back and forth as their relative values change
Oh, and I also sold CS to help fund the SCBFF buy. In looking into these 2 in more detail, I think SCBFF is the better one and I'm trying to avoid over diversifying which is tendency I have.
I still have 3 Euro banks, ING, DB and SCBFF, so reasonable diversification I think, and I like them all for different reasons.
Good stuff man. Looks like you're doing pretty well this year. Was looking dreary back in January but things have picked up nicely (famous last words).
As we head into the close, it appears my morning ‘take’ was correct:
(a) US indexes are selling off. (b) EEM still green, but well off the day’s highs. (c) RYWVX closed the 1030 window @ 67.63, a gain of +0.7% above my opening basis of 67.16. (d) TLT now +0.76%, and I plan to close RYGBX (Rydex 1.2x Government Long Bond) end of day for a +1% gain. (e) SLW/FCX/RSX/EWZ/PBR-> I left a great deal on the table in terms of potential intraday gains, but with the exception of RSX (Russia) prices currently differ little from where I closed positions this morning.
I’m almost inclined to hold RYGBX through the weekend (in anticipation of further weakness in global markets on Monday). In a choppy environment, however, the appropriate trading strategy becomes ‘hit it to quit it’ (taking profits when I have them).
Expect end of month window dressing, which may provide a bid into the close. Should US indexes rally in the next ten minutes, I would consider a short.
No bid, no short. In fact, EEM sellers are aggressively hitting the ‘ask,’ driving the closing price under 40.75 (in the red), significantly below the 1030 est price of 40.86. TLT will close at the day’s high, about +0.9%.
But CBI had a big hit on earnigns, CKI.TO announced a buyback, GIB had an analyst day, CAM.TO beat on earnings, the Eurobanks (ING and DB) did well, and a bunch of small ones.
Ended up being my best month $ wise ever and probably #7 percentage-wise (the higher ones were when my portfolio was smaller).
If I look at my poor stocks, energy still doing poorly - would have been much better off listening to you and staying away all commodities.
A modest one-day gain of +0.65% for the portfolio. Successfully navigating each twist and turn was the real payoff, though. Gains in Emerging Markets/Miners in the am, followed by equally profitable gains on bonds in the pm. My kind of day!
Berkshire Report out. Just started reading it, but if you were lucky enough to invest with Buffet 50 years ago when he started, and invested 10,000, it would now be worth $186 million. Crazy, but shows the power of compounding at over 20% a year for a long period of time.
Pretty amazing stuff huh? It's pretty rare to come across something like this that has FDA clearance and is only valued at 1/2 a billion. I always have a tough time investing in biotech but the upside on this is astronomical and the downside risk is minimal in my opinion given FDA clearance. It's my biggest position by far. I think it could be worth at least $50 a share. My avg is $12.6.
"My cigar-butt strategy worked very well while I was managing small sums. Indeed, the many dozens of free puffs I obtained in the 1950s made that decade by far the best of my life for both relative and absolute investment performance."
So, even though he is known as a buy great companies and hold forever, he actually did the best when he was small (makes sense), but used the simple approach of buying very undervalued companies, but that approach couldn't scale to large dollars.
LL - So anyway, the margins of this company doubled over a short period of time due to they were able to reduce costs dramatically so (absent knowledge of how/why) that would've been a compelling buy, no? CARB must be an expensive regulation to meet, not saying it's good or bad just EXPENSIVE.
Hydrogen isn't a cost effective solution for motor vehicles b/c there's no cheap way to remove carbon, whoever can figure out how to get around the laws chemistry will make tons of money (APD is my first thought).
NWPX - I had some of this one maybe 5-6 years ago when it crashed spectacularly, I was in as a water and O&G play and sold with a nice loss. HELI - Kinda thinking this one's a setup for bankruptcy takeover. Buffett has some similar helicopter related company in his portfolio?
ZGNX - This one's been moving up, would prefer an heroine stock though. I mean, we have marijuana stocks now so why not legalize heroine and be done with these other shitty drug companies?
Let me start by saying that those of you who are in 'buy and hold' mode on domestic stocks are probably now at all-time highs. The DJIA/SPX continue their ascent today.
The DJIA/SPX are not the sectors I'm interested in.
(a) Long-term Treasurys (an asset class not generally known for volatility) are off -1.6% today. I may elect to reopen a position in RYGBX (Rydex 1.2x Long-term Government Bonds) at the close. (b) GDX (miners) are off -2.6%. FCX (copper) -3.1%. (c) EEM (Emerging Markets) are weak at -0.43%, with EWZ (Brazil) @ -2.8% a notable underperformer. PBR (Petrobras) -3.8%.
With the DJIA at an all-time high, I would characterize inverse ETFs as 'not a good idea.' Less suicidal would be an actively managed bear ETF like HDGE, and I'm opening a small position here @ 10.89.
Emerging markets? A consideration, but I prefer outright panic as an entry point. Not there yet.
Miners? Today's spot silver chart is certainly the kind of pattern I like buying into: http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html. Let's see whether brokers begin running stops into the close.
(a) Opening a small position in RYGBX (Rydex 1.2x Long-term Government Bonds) @ the close. (b) Opening a small position in RYPMX (Rydex Precious Metals) @ the close. (c) Opened a small position in Goldcorp @ 21.20 on its -3.4% drop to a 45-day low this afternoon.
None of the above should be construed as 'bullish' investments, but as 'reversion to the mean' type trades.
Small caps too seem to starting their next major move upwards after being basically flat last year. And most foreign markets looks pretty good to me too.
I wonder if this is the year we finally see the move out of bonds into equity markets. If interest rates do rise and bond prices fall, I could see a lot of that money rushing into equities.
Stan Druckenmiller on Markets, The Fed, & Which Investors He Admires Most Stanley Druckenmiller, a legendary hedge fund manager (formerly of Duquesne Capital), was interviewed by Kelly Evans on CNBC today and shared his thoughts on the markets and other topics. Here's some of the key takeaways:
On the current US markets: "By historic, fundamental measures, we are extremely high. Stock market to GDP, which I know is one of Mr. Buffett's favorite measures is probably the highest its been in the last hundred years with an eight month exception around the 1999-2000 period."
He also points to the strong dollar as a headwind for earnings. He thinks stocks are high by historical measures, but the monetary policy has been so aggressive that they should be high. He says you should short bonds, not stocks if you think interest rates are going up.
Lastly, he mentioned, "I have positions in the United States, but net-net because of the valuations we talked about and because I'm encouraged by what I'm hearing out of the Fed in terms of them tightening, I'm not all that excited about the U.S."
On the Fed: He thinks it'd be great if the Fed acts now because he believes there's higher risk in the US economy by acting later.
On which investors he admires most: He singled out "three lions" he thinks that are talented younger investors who will be considered great one day: Zach Schreiber at Point State Capital (used to work with Druckenmiller at Duquesne), Chase Coleman at Tiger Global, and Eric Mandelblatt at Soroban Capital (all of which Market Folly covers.)
On his thoughts on IBM: He disagrees with Warren Buffett and quoted him saying, "An investor should never let someone else's opinion drive their decision in stocks." Buffett thinks IBM's problem is cyclical, whereas Druckenmiller thinks its secular.
Europe is doing great so far this year, especially in local currency and looking more and more like it will be the best market of 2015. You've got low valuations, supportive monetary policy and an improving economy - assuming nothing really bad happens, it almost seems like a no-brainer (which is a bit worrisome in itself!)
If I generalize a bit, 2013 was the year of the US small cap with IWM up around 40%, 2014 was the year of the US large cap with the S&P 500 up 10% and most other markets weak and 2015 should be the year of European stocks.
And re IBM, Buffet's problem is that is he wants to buy a tech company, there's probably less than 10 or 20 that are big enough for him. If I look at GIB, which is similar to IBM in that it is mainly in services and has some software offerings, but no hardware (which is probably a good thing). It is growing, has high ROE and cheap for tech, it would seem to be a better Buffet stock. But the problem is he'd have to pretty much buy the entire company to deploy the same funds he has in IBM and most companies like GIB, wouldn't let that happen.
So what is the reason for the latest weakness? Well, according to a report in the WSJ, an unknown amount of Alibaba's "countless" customers - the very basis of the company's ridiculous valuation in the first place - are literally just that: countless. Because they are fake.
From the WSJ:
When Mr. Cui, an entrepreneur in the southeastern Chinese city of Hangzhou, wanted to draw more attention to the hair clips and costume jewelry he sold on the shopping sites of e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. , he says he turned to fake orders. Faking orders, or “brushing,” as it is called in China, involves paying people to pretend to be customers. It lets vendors pad their sales figures and, in theory, boost their standing on online marketplaces, which often give more prominence to high-volume sellers with good track records.
Typically, vendors pay brushers the cost of the products they are ordering, plus a fee. The brushers place the orders and make payments using that money. The vendors then ship boxes that are empty or full of worthless trinkets, while the brushers write glowing reviews.
The practice is considered a form of false advertising, which is prohibited in the U.S. and China. Chinese sellers found doing so face fines and restrictions on their business. But Mr. Cui, who asked to be identified only by his last name, said he relied on fake orders because he felt there was no other way for his products to be seen.
Brushing puts Alibaba at risk of further regulatory scrutiny following its $25 billion initial public offering in September, and calls into question the volume of transactions actually conducted on its platforms, a metric analysts cite in saying it is the world’s largest e-commerce platform. Alibaba says it doesn’t condone fake transactions and that it scrubs them from reporting on merchandise volume, which amounted to 1.68 trillion yuan ($274 billion) for its two main shopping platforms, Taobao and Tmall, in the fiscal year ended March 2014.
FCAU pulling back, probably on weaker sales numbers in February, but possible because of some of Marchionne's other comments regarding not merging with VW and the Ferrari IPO possibly falling to Q3 or selling more than 10% in the IPO.
But the sales drop is almost certainly weather related as all the automakers missed, and the rest of the stuff I trust Marchionne to do what's best for shareholders, so no real concerns either way.
Yeah I had some concerns about the Ferrari IPO going off on time based on his comments last quarter. It's obviously only a short term issue...and likely would create a buying opportunity if there is a slight delay.
I sold about 1/4 to 1/3 of my EYES at $15.2 or so I think. Regret not selling some on Friday or yesterday but it went up so quick I didn't even have time to think about it much (we were up in Big Bear all weekend and got back last night). Oh well. I still believe in the technology and will keep some on regardless.
I bought back into YNDX today at $16.08. I had sold that on Friday morning to move into EYES.
BNS - "March 3- Bank of Nova Scotia posted a lower-than-expected quarterly profit on Tuesday, hurt by an increase in credit-loss provisions and higher expenses, sending its shares down about 1.6 percent. The results at Scotiabank, Canada's No. 3 lender, round out a mixed quarter for the country's big banks"
Time to buy these banks servicing an exceptionally strong economy, fake selling?
Canadian banks are some of the most expensive in the world on most metrics. They've had a great run the last 12 years or so, with strong commodity prices and a booming housing market, but oil is down and our house prices are too high, so these tailwinds will be turning into headwinds over the next few years. It is still an oligarchy with 5 or 6 banks controlling pretty much the whole market, so they don't compete too much on price and that helps protect margins, but I'd definitely be preferring US or European banks at much lower valuations at this time.
"In a separate statement on Wednesday, Yandex said that it had submitted a request to the state anti-monopoly body to investigate Google Inc. for possibly violating Russian antitrust law. Several Yandex vendors had notified the company in 2014 that they are "no longer able to pre-install Yandex services" on Google's Android devices, Yandex said in the statement. "[The] chances are high that Google will continue this practice," Yandex also said. This has put Yandex "under threat," the company said, hurting its search share on mobile devices in favor of Google . The Federal Anti-Monopoly Service usually reviews such requests within 30 days. The authority confirmed to local business daily Vedomosti that it had received the 200-page request and would look into it soon. A Google spokeswoman in Russia said the company couldn't comment on a request it had not yet seen, but added that " users always have a choice of what applications and services to use on Android devices." Google is presently under an anti-trust investigation by the European Commission . Nikolai Nikiforov , the communications minister, said in a tweet in early February that Android is "an increasingly closed-off operating system, monopolized by Google ." Mr. Nikiforov said in a statement on Wednesday that the country will be looking into using free software to ensure " Russia's technological independence." The ministry has already had several sessions with South Korean technology company Samsung to use Tizen, and Finnish Jolla to use their Selfish operating system in Russia . Russia has increased its scrutiny of the IT industry since the onset of the Ukraine conflict."
A favorable ruling, in my opinion, is highly probable. If it happens the stock goes up to $25. The chart looks interesting too...putting in a positive RSI divergence since early December. I think its gearing up for a move. I moved about 25% of my $$ into that today.
You may well be right on this, but personally, I just can't see putting any money into Russia as long as Putin is running the show there - too much unknown for me.
RL is not super cheap, but I think it probably won't get super cheap. Look at their growth in revenues and earnings and book value over the last 10 years and their pretty consistent high-teens ROE. I think people will value it as a high-quality company. It is the cheapest its been on a p/e, p/b, p/s, p/cf basis since the financial crisis, so I think a bounce back to the $170's is probable this year, unless more bad news comes out, which would be a 25% move. Not the best, but I think, given the track record of the company, the downside is fairly limited too.
(a) The DJIA/SPX/NDQ (US indexes) + EEM (Emerging Markets) are all off about -0.5%, and HDGE is up the same amount. (b) Surprisingly, bonds (TLT) and miners (GDX), both of which are (usually) negatively correlated to the above indexes, have also sold off. TLT -0.3%, GDX -2%. (c) Goldcorp, which I closed this morning @ 21.45, is now bidding 20.86. (d) China lowered interest rates by 25 basis points on Sunday, signaling a change in policy towards aggressive QE. Normally this would light up the Shanghai Composite. Instead, it sold off Monday, which accelerated into a-2.2% decline last night.
I have a negative take on the market right now, but of course the market doesn't care what I think.
Will be taking losses in both RYGBX (Rydex 1.2x Long Bond) and RYPMX (Rydex Precious Metals) at the close.
(a) RYPMX closed down -1.76%. (b) RYGBX closed down -0.53%.
I gave back about 30% of last Friday's gains. Losses are part of the ebb and flow of trading, and taking losses quickly is the best risk management technique I know. No one has ever won an argument with the market.
Why don't I just make the 'good' trades, and bypass the 'bad' ones? It's not possible to know ahead of time! If we knew, they wouldn't call it trading- they would call it printing money.
Forecasting $1.50 in earnings for 2015. With the stock falling 20% to $48 after hours, still trading at a p/e over 30. 2% yield might help, but I could see this falling by half again.
So the basic goal of reproducing digital music is to make it sounds as good as.....RECORDS!
ReplyDeleteI'm finding some decent bargains in the retail space. KORS is interesting to me. Trades at about 15.9x trailing earnings. Lumped in with COH and maybe because COH is making a comeback people assume KORS is going to dive? The problem to me is the business hasn't been around long enough to make it a sure thing so I don't know for sure if it could just drop off a cliff. I feel like COH or RL is more of a sure thing.
ReplyDeleteConsumer demand should be improving ad well with lower oil, more jobs and pay increasing even at the low end. My daughters would do COH shopping on their minimum wage jobs when they were teenagers and had no expenses, so the boost in minimum wage should help a lot of retail.
DeleteTA getting some activist attention
ReplyDeleteYeah I bought back into that but way too small. It broke out and retested $12.6ish. I had a larger position previously but sold at a loss. it's a cheap company.
DeleteTOF did you hold on to WGBS? big move today.
ReplyDeleteI did. Sold it today for a small gain as it was down big heading into today. Small position though. I have been selling most of my positions today. Only holding very small piece in TA, some RL and YNDX now. Will probably sell TA and might even sell RL. I like it down here as far as trading goes but the valuation isn't incredibly cheap. Trades at 17.7 pe which for a company not growing that fast it's not that cheap. Companies like TUP GNC and others that I've followed for a while and didn't really act enough of got down to 12x so there's a chance this happens with RL.
DeleteKORS is one that could get down to 12 or so if there's some more panic selling.
I'm beginning to think oil is getting closer to a bottom. If we look back to the 2009 lows and use that as a guide then maybe we get one more big drop and then its the bottom. But it seems like we're getting pretty close.
Part of the reason I started buying YNDX here is if oil does indeed catch a bid then I think the beaten down Russian stocks will rise too. I think YNDX has the potential to go to $22 to $24. The latter would be a near 50% rise from here. Valuation can support that price too as its trading at 18x pe TTM and my assumption is earnings have been depressed due to the recession in Russia. If you see a $10 rise in the price of oil then you could see a major sentiment change in stocks like YNDX. If not, then its still cheap enough in my opinion.
DeleteA rebound in oil is the reason I sold VA today and will be selling TA. If it doesn't rebound then at least I have some gains from both of those.
Hard to get real excited about market here for me. RL does not seem to want to go up really and agree with your comments Barron's fund have own this thing since the 65's and is a good fund for finding interesting stocks.
DeleteLooking at five year returns precious metals most beat up, emerging mkts kind of flat and LT oil has to be interesting here. My gut says financials are going to do good this year.
FWIW
SM- Wow.
ReplyDeleteYeah but who knew........
Delete
ReplyDeleteEncana (ECA +3.6%) says ready to take advantage of the collapse in crude oil prices to do more deals, CEO Doug Settles says, as the announced 25% cut to its 2015 capital budget ensures there is enough cash coming in to cover costs and consider acquisitions.
"The longer this [crude oil price] environment persists, the more likely something will occur. There’s lots of people talking," Settles says.
ECA’s reduced $2.1B budget this year assumes it can reduce costs by 15%, the CEO says, adding that the company has secured rate cuts of as much as 50% in some areas following talks with drillers and other service suppliers.
ECA is not planning job cuts after cutting its workforce by ~25% last year but headcount will fall this year as it chooses not to replace employees heading into retirement, Settles says.
Okay Mark, I'm interested in the audio thing b/c I want to put all my albums on a droid pad. There are also some droid apps I'm interested in and actually would be interested in developing some droid apps as well, so far is seems apple ipad doesn't do a couple things I want such as transmitting wirelessly in an uncompressed format, the compression is layered such that it's compressed twice unless you use apple's protocol which nobody else uses even Apple?
ReplyDeleteSo WTF have you got going on there? Oh, I still have vinyl to convert, already converted to other formats and some of it into MP3
"AAC (Advanced Audio Coding) – unlike SBC and aptX, AAC is a codec popular outside of wireless applications, including Apple’s iTunes platform and YouTube. It was designed to achieve better sound quality than mp3 at similar bit rates. Unlike aptX, it is supported by iOS devices. Apple implements AAC over Bluetooth at about 250 kbps (source – pdf), which should compete in fidelity with the best-quality mp3s or any other lossy codec. However, at this time AAC support in wireless headphones is not very common."
And that's a lot of equipment, maybe there's an easier solution? I haven't held a digital media player in my hands in maybe 6 months probably but I'm looking for one.
DeleteI'm checking with MOG about ROSE.
ReplyDeleteWho uses most electricity per capita? Iceland. Well, of course I'm curious about this.....
ReplyDelete(a) GDX (miners) rallies today, +2.4%. IMO, it's a rally to be sold.
ReplyDelete(b) EEM (Emerging Markets) -0.2%, not helped by a -1.62% pullback in EWZ (Brazil). PBR -5.6% on a Moody's downgrade of their debt.
(c) OIH up just +0.34% against the backdrop of a +3% rally in crude.
(d) Bonds not giving up any ground. TLT +0.34%.
(e) US indexes flat.
I would tend to give bonds the benefit of the doubt (ie, equities are probably headed down short term). In any case, I see no low-risk entries today.
I made one trade earlier in the day. CHK (Chesapeake Energy) sold off -12% on 'bad' guidance. Opened a position @ 17.67, closed @ 18.01 (a relatively easy +1.9%).
No positions right now.
VNM, where the Chinese Oligarch's have supposedly relocated, was off 1% Just thought I'd throw that in.
DeleteCP- ACC sucks. ALAC is Apples looseless format. FLAC and AIIF are industry standards. The best files I have are 196khz sample rate/24 bit depth.
ReplyDeleteI also like a new streaming service, Tidal. 44.1khz/16 bits. (CD standard) https://tidalhifi.com/us/video/explore-tidal
I also haven't converted any analog sources. (records). I saved all my CD's (44.1/16), but really, I listen to files I downloaded... http://www.hdtracks.com/ ... or streaming from Tidal. So really, all of my stuff it based on coverting digital files.
DeletePandora/Spotiy sucks when it comes to quality.
Nyquist Rate: "the minimum rate at which a signal can be sampled without introducing errors, which is twice the highest frequency present in the signal."
DeleteI guess the ACC you heard wasn't implemented correctly b/c my understanding is that wouldn't be double encoded but sent as the originally encoded signal (such as MP3). The protocol wasn't established correctly. Losses occur from double encoding, no need to encode what's already encoded (MP3).
What you want to do, is transmit the already encoded data as is, in the originally encoded format without further encoding(double encoding causes losses).
SBC does this over Bluetooth but Apple doesn't offer it, they offer something else incompatible with the rest of the world? ALAC is MP4 apparently, which can be used for video as well as audio but I'm not interested in video or anything more compressed than MP3 b/c MP3 works great as is and it's a well accepted standard for audio.
As far as calling it something other than what it really is (MP3 or MP4=ALAC?), whatever the algo was used for encoding the digital data doesn't need further encoding, thus it's best to send it in the currently encoded format in which it was originally encoded.
SBC transmits the data via bluetooth without further encoding, but might be olde way of doing things? Anyway, I can purchase the equipment to receive and decode bluetooth MP3 and I think the android implements this capability but I don't want to end up with something obsolete.
So I'm confused about what Apple is doing exactly, hopefully it's not double encoding b/c that would be lossy.
I've converted some vinyl to MP3, but a lot of this vinyl is already available encoded to MP3 so not much need to convert unless it's crazy sampled at 320khz or something. Unless you really want that vinyl sound of the stylus dragging along the groove? Maybe that's what you're going after? I'm not trying for that myself but the true definition would include this characteristic.
DeleteBut, both MP# and MP$ are compressed formats so if you don't want compression then you should go with WAV which can always be compressed to anything else. The compression(encoding) causes losses and WAV is uncompressed, the same as audio on a CD.
DeleteOh, we don't use CD's anymore, we buy WAV from APPL or what are we doing exactly?
I guess you could transmit WAV over bluetooth but I'm not sure how lossy the bluetooth compression is, that might sound like crap too. I'd like to try SBC, which transmits the MP3 as encoded, but not sure if that would be a waste of money incompatible with the remainder of the world..
As far as the math goes, a 20,000 Hertz signal needs to be sampled 2x per second to capture a full wavelength, this is the nyquist rate. The other aspect involves the number of bits per sample, 2^16 bits is 65,536 levels of resolution per channel so would be a bit rate of 44.1ksps*32bits=1,411.2Kbps was chosen for CD audio (uncompressed, I believe). MP3 compresses 11:1 supposedly, thus 128kbps is CD-Audio quality? Sounds good to me.
DeleteFLAC - just 60% compression, doesn't seem reasonable for portable mass storage and I doubt I can hear better than CD quality assuming the audio system even can come close, which is doubtful the response is flat anyway.
Delete"FLAC's algorithm can typically be reduced to 50–60% of its original size[4] and decompressed to an identical copy of the original audio data."
Same applies to AIFF for my purposes (Interesting this is an old Amiga approach!):
"AIFF is uncompressed (which aids rapid streaming of multiple audio files from disk to the application), and is lossless. Like any uncompressed, lossless format, it uses much more disk space than MP3—about 10MB for one minute of stereo audio at a sample rate of 44.1 kHz and a bit depth of 16 bits."
So I still like 128kbps MP3..... Not sure why those guys don't want to use it aside from maybe creating demand for larger and larger memory requirements and increased power consumption? Why not take advantage of the weaknesses of the human hearing?
"The MP3 lossy audio data compression algorithm takes advantage of a perceptual limitation of human hearing called auditory masking."
Meant to say sampled 2x/cycle, thus 40k samples/second for a 20khz signal. Dogs can hear above that.frequency though.
DeleteLL smash down alert -27%
ReplyDeletejust bought a litte of this at 50.28
DeleteA little info I heard, despite importing what might turn out to be illegally harvested wood the earnings fell short. Can't imagine impossible to obtain exotic wood from a tropical forest wouldn't be a hot seller.... damn iphones!
DeleteI'm liking this current market. February is turning out to be probably the 7th best month % wise I've had in 15 years of investing.
ReplyDeleteIt was a pretty good month to just sit on stocks as they went pretty consistently up, so good for my buy cheap and hold for a couple years type approach.
The other thing I keep thinking is it is the best time of the presidential cycle and the best year (5th) of the decade, and people still really aren't excited about stocks, so maybe this is the year we get the "animal spirits" going and have a +25% or +30% year. If we do, it will be hard to find good places to buy.
TVIX - Jumped up a little today. Not much chance of downside for this one tomorrow unless something positive happens before open?
ReplyDeleteCP- Your a lot smarter than me. I just know what I hear...and the itunes files are ACC with about 128kbps-256kbps.
ReplyDeleteTidal is about 800-1,000kbps
FLAC/AIIF run from 800-1,600kbps depending on the sample frequency and bit depth.
It's VERY hard for ME to hear the difference between 44.1khz/16bit and 198khz/24bit, but if I'm really listening it's there and enjoyable. Mostly on the very low and high end. For example, a symbol hit will last a tad longer with the larger kbps rates.
...and really a huge part of all of this is the DAC involved. And even the best ones actually sound different. Mine uses 2 ESS Sabre 9018 32bit DAC's.
DeleteSo you're saying this song doesn't sound decent to you, you need higher resolution?
Deletehttp://mp3light.net/assets/songs/40000-40999/40538-total-eclipse-of-the-heart-bonnie-tyler--1411576862.mp3
If you have 32 bit DACS, then why record/play 24 bits? Anyway, you must have dog ears!!! None the less, I'm looking to beam portable music wirelessly aim to figure out what works and doesn't. As far as what sounds decent enough, MP3 at 128kbps in two channels is good enough for my ears. BTW, there are no decent 2-channel receivers on the market, all anymore, just humongo boxes, receivers are something that never shrank? :)
DeleteI think 50 WattsRMS/2ch is all a sane person should need for a reasonable stereo, mostly it's all about the speakers and headphones are out of the question for me.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Internet,_nobody_knows_you%27re_a_dog
So if the goal is to make it sound like vinyl, do you mean to duplicate the sound of the stylus dragging over the surface? That might be one thing people really like about records.... We didn't used to like the pops, keeping them clean helped and using a good stylus avoided wearing them out, start recording AFTER the stylus sets down,,,,, etc...
DeleteThe old argument in favor of vacuum tube amps was ping noise has a better sound than solid state shot noise, LOl I guess we were listening to the amp with no signal?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shot_noise
Other than that stuff I'm pretty sure I can't hear the difference between CD Redbook 44.1k samples/sec 16bitx2 and vinyl, except the CD stuff has all the stylus noise taken out.
So one more thing and I'll shut up...... You could at least look for an DAC that uses these devices:
Deletehttp://www.john-a-harper.com/tubes201/
LL- I never could figure this one out. Around here they are dumps and in crappy areas. I never see ANYONE there. But I'm a snob.
ReplyDeleteI dumped it after hours
DeleteLast time I was at Home Depot there was nobody there!!!!
DeleteHD does always seem pretty empty given the size of the stores (except spring planting and a few other times a year), but I think hardware is a good margin business as people will pay up for the advice. They do make a lot of money.
DeleteI've been thinking that it would be good to find an investment that benefits from US housing growth as this should be a tailwind for the next few years. The home builders and HD are the obvious ones. Not sure what else, but sounds like LL is not the way.
Black and Decker, Ryobi, DeWalt?
DeleteOatey - Plumbing stuff.. Plastics are cheap so margins good?
DeleteUSCR - Concrete
MLM - Aggregates
Mark, here's another one... How does this sound to you? I'm beginning to wonder if my standards are too low, missing out over here....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.radiogeorge.com/oldies/oldies29/Ace-How%20Long.mp3
FCAU - Fiat came in "DEAD LAST" for reliabilty... This is probably old news.
ReplyDeleteEVBS - This one has $8 cash, trading at $6
ReplyDeleteCP- Love that song. It sounds like a typical compressed file. Even on my Macbook the 44.1/16 version streamed from Tidal sounds like a revelation. Give it a try, it's free. https://tidalhifi.com/us/video/explore-tidal
ReplyDeleteNote- If your going to listen on your computer run it in on Chrome or download the player from Tidal for best audio quality. Of course on a 'real' system the quality is stunning.
Itunes can play AIIF files if you can find them up to 96Khz. Of course that isn't what you get buying them from itunes. I think I can email some if you want. Not totally sure how that works.
DeleteNot sure what qualifies as stunning, but an uncompressed 44.1k samples/sec 32 bits (2 channels stereo for two ears) 1,411 kbps and THD at that rate is imperceptible.
DeleteNot sure how any improvement can be made over that but it's considerably more of a challenge to transmit wirelessly than 128kbps, which is an acceptable resolution for my purposes.
Some of my MP3 stuff is encoded(compressed) to 320kbps (vs uncompressed 1,411kbps) and granted even that sounds incrementally better than 128kbps but the space savings is worth the hit to me under average listening conditions. Many speakers can't reproduce the range anyway.
For instance, in the car I'm driving currently there are two original factory speakers in the upper dash pad, that's it. It's the worst case. The boat doesn't even have speakers yet, hard to break down and cut holes in a boat, LOL... Have been considering it though, if I can get the system worked out.
DeleteSomething like this might work for the boat, although using BT I shouldn't need access to the face panel so it's more than I really want, I just want a box I can mount inside the helm or something that has a BT interface thus I want to stream to it from an iPAD-like device of some sort.
http://www.jensenmarinedirect.com/am-fm-usb-waterproof-stereo-with-bluetooth.html
DeleteI prefer using a plastic spoon when eating yogurt.
ReplyDeleteTake a look at oil seasonality here guys:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.signalfinancialgroup.com/SeasonalCharts/CL2_20YrStudy.jpg
Seems worth taking a bet on some names. I see stocks like SDRL and SLCA are up today despite a big drop in oil.
ROSE-
ReplyDeleteNot a lot, a small cap that has cleaned portfolio to Eagleford and Permian. Quick look is that they will reallly struggle with cash flow/debt, already drawing on revolver and derivatives in the tank, saw that they cut capex to 350 MM from 1.2 Billion. They will likely need 55$ oil to survive this coming year. Eagleford assets are mediocre, but Permian has some runway if they ever get to drill them !
They were a darling early on because of focus on two plays, but this will be a tough year with only $ 350 MM capex. Familiar story for this part of industry. Probably not a lot of downside risk, but I would want to examine their hedge book closely for 2015, will be a differentiator for small companies. Their financial disclosures suck, really poorly done in my view...too focused on operational details, not on cash flow.
Say what, which is it? "They will likely need 55$ oil to survive this coming year." "Probably not a lot of downside risk"
DeleteI don't think $55 oil will happen this year, maybe next or will be under that for two or three down the road.....?
Making a foray into pullbacks on a few of the sectors most despised by investors this morning:
ReplyDelete(a) RSX (Russia) @ 17.67.
(b) EEM/RYWVX (Emerging Markets) @ 40.72/1030 window.
(c) FCX (copper) @ 21.33.
(d) SLW (Silver Wheaton) @ 21.42.
(e) UGAZ (NGas) @ 2.72.
(f) EWZ (Brazil)/PBR (Petrobras) @ 34.82/6.33.
SODA - Stopped fizzling maybe?
ReplyDeleteFLWS - $20 in a couple months?
ReplyDeleteSHould have held that one!
DeleteTREX - Roaring higher, do contractors use plastic decking?
ReplyDeletedamn man i remember looking at that at $27 last year. just reinforces the notion of ignoring negativity during downturns in stocks. volaility is part of the stock market.
DeleteIP - Wonder how many millions more little cardboard boxes and econ-disaster packing materials are consumed now that everything sold is an internet sale that needs to be shipped by gorilla courier?
ReplyDeleteprobably makes sense to start paying very close attention to oil stocks, as well as russian and brazilian stocks and how they are trading relative to oil. those that are beginning to diverge from the price of oil are the ones that should outperform in the next few months as oil presumably starts to bottom out. not sure if we see a lower low than the low $40's but even if we do and we see stocks like YNDX, SLCA, SDRL, ENSV, BAS, BXE, QIWI, MBT, SBS, etc starting to outperform and not make new lows then those are the ones I want to focus on.
ReplyDeleteIt makes no sense that stocks like YNDX QIWI and some others trading with the price of oil but if you look back they have done that for a while now. oil impacts Russia and Brazil and people sell first without thinking it through logically. that's where i think the opportunity lies as those types of businesses are very strong longer term businesses despite all the nonsense going on in ukraine / russia. Yandex is a powerhouse in the internet space. and it owns some pretty key properties like Auto.ru (think BITA or autotrader for Russia) that could be very large businesses as well. This is one I'm definitely getting very excited about.
DeleteOne thing that perhaps can be said, is the correlation of oil and other sectors has diverged?
DeleteYNDX looks like it's gonna start moving up, to me. Might be b/c there are so many people interested in getting a piece of the pie seem like it about has to at least melt up..
DeleteLNG - I'm guessing that's about the end of the party, look out below.
ReplyDeleteAre there ANY energy companies NOT reporting increasing production in 2015?
ReplyDeleteCENX - Just noticed the H&S I was waiting for did/is actually fruit(ing). So, too much aluminuminiumumum in the market too, eh?
ReplyDelete"FCAU - Fiat came in "DEAD LAST" for reliabilty... This is probably old news."
ReplyDeleteWhen you talk to Dodge / Chrysler buyers, they often focus on the value, not the Consumer Report reliability. Their vehicles are cheap, which means if you have to spend a bit more on maintenance, you still do fine (usually)
Also, this year, for the first time in a many years, some FCAU vehicles (Dodge Durango for 1) made the Consumer Reports recommended list, so they are making progress.
And the other factor is, a lot of their vehicles are pretty cool and people tend to like their looks.
The Fiat brand was the focus, Chrysler portion hasn't done too badly but I'm still concerned about the automatic transmissions. There's room for improvement, which can be a great thing if the problems are priced in and improvement hasn't.
DeleteTOF, that's how CBI got so cheap, because people traded it down with the price of oil, even though it is a small part of their business - turned out to be a good buying opportunity.
ReplyDeleteWith stocks like YNDX, I wonder how much of their trading is ETF and market based, so it could be just getting pushed around with the broad Russian market.
Reminiscences guy making a good point that the oil tankers rates are near all-time highs, even though the dry bulk (Baltic) rates near a mulitple year low. Going to take a look...
ReplyDeleteMachione riding along side us on FCAU
ReplyDeletehttp://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/26/us-fiatchrysler-marchionne-idUSKBN0LU1RR20150226
With half an hour 'til session close:
ReplyDelete(a) RSX has pulled back to 17.45.
(b) EEM treading water @ 40.75 (and RYWVX filled at 67.16 in the am window). I can't quantify my take, but it 'feels' like emerging markets have caught a bid the past few days, and EEM is consolidating in the 40+ range prior to a breakout higher. Naturally, I may be completely wrong.
(c) FCX has pulled back to 21.12.
(d) UGAZ has pulled back to 2.60, just above its 52-wk low of 2.40.
(e) EWZ/ PBR also treading water @ 34.83/ 6.32.
Bonds have pulled back-> TLT now -1% to 128.9x. Energy has pulled back significantly-> USO (crude) -3.6%, OIH (Oil Services) -2.5%, and XLE (energy majors) -2.1%.
Should bonds remain weak into the close, I plan to open a position in RYGBX (Rydex 1.2x Government Long Bond). This may appear counter-intuitive (why bonds if I'm bullish on equities), but EEM and TLT have in fact correlated well at times and obviously I think it may be the case now.
NWPX - Damn, couldn't remember this ticker to save my ass...... What a mine field it is out there, feels almost like Armageddon the way some industrials have been bludgeoned. Must be overseas competition.
ReplyDeleteJONE - Wow, hadn't been checking this one but today was a blood bath. Just keep on hitting record oil production with virtually all producers guiding higher production, makes me want to buy a refiner.....
ReplyDeleteIt does seem like most energy companies are cutting capex, but increasing production. A lot of the capex spending for 2015 is focused on getting wells online, so it should be a short increase in production, followed by a longer term decrease.
DeleteIf this plays out, I would think we should see a final spike down in the oil price later this year, followed by falling production into 2016 as the capex cuts really hit.
So if the oil price rebounds around mid-2016 (assume with the driving season), then the stocks should start rebouncing 6 months ahead of that or around the end of 2015.
Maybe we just need to be patient this year. I'm still sitting on my energy stocks and just watching and waiting, but energy is one of the sectors with the best long term track records, so this could turn out to be a great buying opportunity.
I think it makes sense to play a bounce in some oil stocks here for the shorter term time period. It does feel like we will get another whoosh down but who the hell knows. I do like looking in areas that are getting taken down despite having little exposure to it like I mentioned before. Need to do research figuring that stuff out.
DeleteGENC - Here's one that's been lifting recently....
ReplyDeleteWNR - Speaking of refiners, wow... WTIC/BRENT spread is lifting these guys big time, seems like.
ReplyDeleteCP,
ReplyDeleteFiat was worst, but Jeep was 2nd worst, Dodge 4th worst and Chrysler 6th worst.
I might be wrong on this, but I'd assume the same things that apply to the other FCAU brands also apply to FIAT. I know my wife thinks their cars are cute.
I dunno if technology from Fiat was integrated into Chrysler but doubt it. I bet if they offered that diesel V6 in the Jeep it would be a hot seller.
DeleteNWPX - looks like a cheap stock if you can trust the analyst estimates. They warned last quarter on 2015, so may not hit these. I looked at it to see if it was maybe a company that was being unfairly punished as an "oil related" stock, but they actually warned on competition in their water business.
ReplyDeleteTook a 5% position in EYES today right before the close. I snoozed on this one at $10 but I like buying this dip here and adding if need be. This is a pretty ridiculous technology.
ReplyDeletemamma mia this guy can a find his a forka and his a spoona and mangia mangia!: http://www.secondsight.com/patient-testimonial-pisa-subtitled.html
Deletescrew elon musk and his stupid electric car BS. this is the real deal tech revolution
Wow, assuming this stuff really works, this company will be worth a ton more than $500 million.
DeleteWatch these videos:
Deletehttp://www.foxnews.com/health/2015/02/24/man-gets-bionic-eye-sees-family-for-first-time-in-10-years/
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/15/health/fda-approves-technology-to-give-limited-vision-to-blind-people.html?_r=1
Nice buy yesterday - having a good bump this morning.
DeleteI actually added a bunch this morning as well. It's a $40 stock.
DeleteSLW off @ 21.62.
ReplyDeleteFCX off @ 21.33 (breakeven).
ReplyDeleteYNDX - They're doing a good job of keeping me out, might be worry of holding over weekend.....
ReplyDeleteEYES - Yeah I love this kind of stuff that actually works.
ReplyDeleteI'm shocked its not a $2B company right now. An FDA approved product that is the only one on the market, selling for $140k per device with a potential $40 Billion (my estimate) market. It's at 1/4 that valuation.
Delete$40B, is there really that much demand? If so then WOWOWOWOW.. I haven't researched this one at all.....
Deleteyes. they estimate a population of 1.1 million people. i think its more like 250k. 250 x $140k = $35 Billion or so.
DeleteWonder if the health insurance program covers this? I think cataract surgery is covered (by Medicare, at least) and the results of this type of surgery are quite good at restoring lost sight.
DeleteApril 4th peek bloom for DC Cherries might be delayed slightly unless we receive a couple of days in the mid 70's
ReplyDelete(a) RSX (Russia) off @ 17.55 for a minor loss.
ReplyDelete(b) EEM (Emerging Markets) off @ 40.78 for a minor gain.
(c) RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) will be taken off at the 1030 est window. Based on current bids for EWZ (Brazil), it will hopefully close with a minor gain. (A good example of the 'damned if I do, damned if I don't' type trade-> a choice between the pain of regret and the pain of discipline: closing positions here raises the probability that EEM will finally rally later in the day, whereas deciding to hold the position 'til end of day raises the probability the markets sell off!).
Note that bonds opened strong (TLT opened >129), but are now pulling back (TLT 128.61). Feet to the fire, I think markets sell off into the close, and bonds close strong. (A good example of one trader's observation [that it's] 'always fascinating to watch a high conviction bull turn into a high conviction bear as soon as he sells, subsequent price action be damned!')
It's month-end today, so that could provide some market support.
DeleteMarket seems stronger than I anticipated, that could change of course but the customary 30pt downside following FED testimony doesn't seem to be happening.
DeleteMaybe b/c the FED called it correctly, no rate hike, today's weal data supports that decision? I dunno..... Thinking out loud.
EYES - wow!!
ReplyDeleteEYES - Looks like I missed the upside, not gonna risk it up here to ride another stock down, that gets old.
ReplyDeleteAlways tough chasing, but this market cap is miniscule for the technology they have. Has the makings for an epic run.
DeleteHCAC - What the heck is this one.....
ReplyDeleteHomeland Security - Probably just a pipeline for spending money anyway, I've never seen any vehicles running around and the DC subway fire a couple weeks ago was a total fail b/c the DC fire department is obviously completely disorganized. Why wasn't Homeland Security there, it was an emergency fire in the damn subway they had the fans blowing the smoke the wrong way even.
ReplyDeleteI want my money back.
MDLZ - Insider buying, is that right? Recent volume makes me think of distribution.
ReplyDeleteTUBE - H&S seems to be fruiting
ReplyDeleteYou guys of course recognize that pickup trucks were meant to be ugly, I just wanted to point that out. The same applies to vinyl albums, the audio reproduction is fraught with imperfection that people seem to desire.
ReplyDeletePave Paradise, Put Up A Parking Lot
Added to my Standard Chartered SCBFF position. They got a new CEO and the stock is reacting well and still cheap and a good way to play the emerging markets rebound.
ReplyDeleteAlso flipped my UNP back into CNI. Both are top tier rails and rails are one of the best long term buy and hold industries, so I'm just trying to generate a little extra profit by flipping back and forth as their relative values change
Oh, and I also sold CS to help fund the SCBFF buy. In looking into these 2 in more detail, I think SCBFF is the better one and I'm trying to avoid over diversifying which is tendency I have.
DeleteI still have 3 Euro banks, ING, DB and SCBFF, so reasonable diversification I think, and I like them all for different reasons.
Good stuff man. Looks like you're doing pretty well this year. Was looking dreary back in January but things have picked up nicely (famous last words).
DeleteEyes, These
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qOZMc7hNKEs
Mark, is this the one?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.audioquest.com/usb_digital_analog_converter/dragonfly-dac
RL - Does this qualify as C&H, or maybe it's the middle of the "W"? Sorta like the USCR chart formation.
ReplyDeleteDB - Will close @ 32.68, right?
ReplyDeleteAs we head into the close, it appears my morning ‘take’ was correct:
ReplyDelete(a) US indexes are selling off.
(b) EEM still green, but well off the day’s highs.
(c) RYWVX closed the 1030 window @ 67.63, a gain of +0.7% above my opening basis of 67.16.
(d) TLT now +0.76%, and I plan to close RYGBX (Rydex 1.2x Government Long Bond) end of day for a +1% gain.
(e) SLW/FCX/RSX/EWZ/PBR-> I left a great deal on the table in terms of potential intraday gains, but with the exception of RSX (Russia) prices currently differ little from where I closed positions this morning.
I’m almost inclined to hold RYGBX through the weekend (in anticipation of further weakness in global markets on Monday). In a choppy environment, however, the appropriate trading strategy becomes ‘hit it to quit it’ (taking profits when I have them).
Expect end of month window dressing, which may provide a bid into the close. Should US indexes rally in the next ten minutes, I would consider a short.
DeleteNo bid, no short. In fact, EEM sellers are aggressively hitting the ‘ask,’ driving the closing price under 40.75 (in the red), significantly below the 1030 est price of 40.86. TLT will close at the day’s high, about +0.9%.
DeleteMeant to say, ‘hitting the bid.’
DeleteTOF,
ReplyDeleteI had a lot of stocks do well this month.
FCAU, for one of course.
But CBI had a big hit on earnigns, CKI.TO announced a buyback, GIB had an analyst day, CAM.TO beat on earnings, the Eurobanks (ING and DB) did well, and a bunch of small ones.
Ended up being my best month $ wise ever and probably #7 percentage-wise (the higher ones were when my portfolio was smaller).
If I look at my poor stocks, energy still doing poorly - would have been much better off listening to you and staying away all commodities.
'best month $ wise ever.' Wow. Take the family out to dinner!
Deleteawesome man. yeah this month definitely changed things around here as well. was looking rough heading into feb.
DeleteA modest one-day gain of +0.65% for the portfolio. Successfully navigating each twist and turn was the real payoff, though. Gains in Emerging Markets/Miners in the am, followed by equally profitable gains on bonds in the pm. My kind of day!
ReplyDeleteYeah, great day on a day like today
DeleteBerkshire Report out. Just started reading it, but if you were lucky enough to invest with Buffet 50 years ago when he started, and invested 10,000, it would now be worth $186 million. Crazy, but shows the power of compounding at over 20% a year for a long period of time.
ReplyDeleteMy gosh
Deletehttps://m.youtube.com/watch?v=inKqHvy3phU
ReplyDeletePretty amazing stuff huh? It's pretty rare to come across something like this that has FDA clearance and is only valued at 1/2 a billion. I always have a tough time investing in biotech but the upside on this is astronomical and the downside risk is minimal in my opinion given FDA clearance. It's my biggest position by far. I think it could be worth at least $50 a share. My avg is $12.6.
Sure looks like a home run.
DeleteHTZ - Do, or die?
ReplyDeleteOCN/WAC/NSM - Are these in trouble?
ReplyDeleteNRZ - Not sure what the story is, but hydrazine seems to be the fuel.
ReplyDeleteExponential Growth:
ReplyDeletehttp://ftalphaville.ft.com/2015/02/27/2120422/meet-the-man-who-could-own-aviva-france/
More like exponential liability growth, BTW. Where in the balance sheet is this accounted for?
DeleteTKMR - Pretty wild ride, Friday hammer.
ReplyDeleteInteresting quote from Buffet:
ReplyDelete"My cigar-butt strategy worked very well while I was managing small sums. Indeed, the many dozens of
free puffs I obtained in the 1950s made that decade by far the best of my life for both relative and absolute
investment performance."
So, even though he is known as a buy great companies and hold forever, he actually did the best when he was small (makes sense), but used the simple approach of buying very undervalued companies, but that approach couldn't scale to large dollars.
AMT - Wasn't that long ago this was trading around $50, a double while I was casing FMD.
ReplyDeleteThe 60 Minutes piece on LL was brutal.
ReplyDeleteLL - $39 bidding now....
ReplyDeleteFLWS - $15 is next stop on the way to.... $20?
ReplyDeleteDB - Going to $38 this year? Maybe, don't see why not.
ReplyDeleteLL - So anyway, the margins of this company doubled over a short period of time due to they were able to reduce costs dramatically so (absent knowledge of how/why) that would've been a compelling buy, no? CARB must be an expensive regulation to meet, not saying it's good or bad just EXPENSIVE.
ReplyDeleteHydrogen isn't a cost effective solution for motor vehicles b/c there's no cheap way to remove carbon, whoever can figure out how to get around the laws chemistry will make tons of money (APD is my first thought).
FCAU - Pleasant surprise, not sure if there's any further explanation or new news.
ReplyDeleteThere's some auto show going on and people are supposedly excited about the upcoming Aston Martin announcement and the new Ferarri supercar.
DeleteAston Martin - This can't be getting any better, too good to be true. LOL, soon comes the smackdown.
DeleteTSN - This one's looking pretty good to me, June entry would've been a great move..
ReplyDeletePCRX picked up some at 98.89 for LT
ReplyDeleteMy bet is the issue will be resolved with time, if it drops to 87 ish will buy again and sit.
has not had a bid since morning, who who plays with falling knife
DeleteYeah who knows if it retests the recent low? I don't have the answer either, obviously. :(
DeleteNWPX - I had some of this one maybe 5-6 years ago when it crashed spectacularly, I was in as a water and O&G play and sold with a nice loss.
ReplyDeleteHELI - Kinda thinking this one's a setup for bankruptcy takeover. Buffett has some similar helicopter related company in his portfolio?
ZGNX - This one's been moving up, would prefer an heroine stock though. I mean, we have marijuana stocks now so why not legalize heroine and be done with these other shitty drug companies?
ReplyDeleteBXE - Becoming a decent money pump.
ReplyDeleteBears getting their tits ripped off......
ReplyDeleteThe average butt implant costs from $9k~$12, happy twerking!
ReplyDeleteLet me start by saying that those of you who are in 'buy and hold' mode on domestic stocks are probably now at all-time highs. The DJIA/SPX continue their ascent today.
ReplyDeleteThe DJIA/SPX are not the sectors I'm interested in.
(a) Long-term Treasurys (an asset class not generally known for volatility) are off -1.6% today. I may elect to reopen a position in RYGBX (Rydex 1.2x Long-term Government Bonds) at the close.
(b) GDX (miners) are off -2.6%. FCX (copper) -3.1%.
(c) EEM (Emerging Markets) are weak at -0.43%, with EWZ (Brazil) @ -2.8% a notable underperformer. PBR (Petrobras) -3.8%.
With the DJIA at an all-time high, I would characterize inverse ETFs as 'not a good idea.' Less suicidal would be an actively managed bear ETF like HDGE, and I'm opening a small position here @ 10.89.
Emerging markets? A consideration, but I prefer outright panic as an entry point. Not there yet.
Miners? Today's spot silver chart is certainly the kind of pattern I like buying into: http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html. Let's see whether brokers begin running stops into the close.
(a) Opening a small position in RYGBX (Rydex 1.2x Long-term Government Bonds) @ the close.
Delete(b) Opening a small position in RYPMX (Rydex Precious Metals) @ the close.
(c) Opened a small position in Goldcorp @ 21.20 on its -3.4% drop to a 45-day low this afternoon.
None of the above should be construed as 'bullish' investments, but as 'reversion to the mean' type trades.
Small caps too seem to starting their next major move upwards after being basically flat last year. And most foreign markets looks pretty good to me too.
DeleteI wonder if this is the year we finally see the move out of bonds into equity markets. If interest rates do rise and bond prices fall, I could see a lot of that money rushing into equities.
LL - The collapse reminds me of BXE @ $8, I feel bad for those longs losing their life savings.
ReplyDeleteNWLI - Huge volume today.
ReplyDeleteStan Druckenmiller on Markets, The Fed, & Which Investors He Admires Most
ReplyDeleteStanley Druckenmiller, a legendary hedge fund manager (formerly of Duquesne Capital), was interviewed by Kelly Evans on CNBC today and shared his thoughts on the markets and other topics. Here's some of the key takeaways:
On the current US markets: "By historic, fundamental measures, we are extremely high. Stock market to GDP, which I know is one of Mr. Buffett's favorite measures is probably the highest its been in the last hundred years with an eight month exception around the 1999-2000 period."
He also points to the strong dollar as a headwind for earnings. He thinks stocks are high by historical measures, but the monetary policy has been so aggressive that they should be high. He says you should short bonds, not stocks if you think interest rates are going up.
Lastly, he mentioned, "I have positions in the United States, but net-net because of the valuations we talked about and because I'm encouraged by what I'm hearing out of the Fed in terms of them tightening, I'm not all that excited about the U.S."
On the Fed: He thinks it'd be great if the Fed acts now because he believes there's higher risk in the US economy by acting later.
On which investors he admires most: He singled out "three lions" he thinks that are talented younger investors who will be considered great one day: Zach Schreiber at Point State Capital (used to work with Druckenmiller at Duquesne), Chase Coleman at Tiger Global, and Eric Mandelblatt at Soroban Capital (all of which Market Folly covers.)
On his thoughts on IBM: He disagrees with Warren Buffett and quoted him saying, "An investor should never let someone else's opinion drive their decision in stocks." Buffett thinks IBM's problem is cyclical, whereas Druckenmiller thinks its secular.
On foreign markets & positions: "I just think Europe and Japan are much, much more attractive ... The majority of my long exposure is in Japan and Europe, not in the United States ... You know, a few months ago we started buying the-- I would say global consumer brands who are primarily stable in nature like-- Unilever or Pernod Ricard or L'Oréal. But recently we've shifted into more cyclical names like Volkswagen, BMW, Airbus. When you get the-- you get the tailwind of-- the euro having gone from 140 to 120, which will give them an earnings push in addition at a lower energy. And they are great consumer brand names in and of themselves."
Europe is doing great so far this year, especially in local currency and looking more and more like it will be the best market of 2015. You've got low valuations, supportive monetary policy and an improving economy - assuming nothing really bad happens, it almost seems like a no-brainer (which is a bit worrisome in itself!)
DeleteIf I generalize a bit, 2013 was the year of the US small cap with IWM up around 40%, 2014 was the year of the US large cap with the S&P 500 up 10% and most other markets weak and 2015 should be the year of European stocks.
And re IBM, Buffet's problem is that is he wants to buy a tech company, there's probably less than 10 or 20 that are big enough for him. If I look at GIB, which is similar to IBM in that it is mainly in services and has some software offerings, but no hardware (which is probably a good thing). It is growing, has high ROE and cheap for tech, it would seem to be a better Buffet stock. But the problem is he'd have to pretty much buy the entire company to deploy the same funds he has in IBM and most companies like GIB, wouldn't let that happen.
DeleteThat's a great comment BB.
DeleteTWTR - Instead of shutting accounts down, why not use them to monitor terrorists?
ReplyDeletePCRX - Pretty sure the gap down obligation is bound to be closed eventually.
ReplyDeleteBABA- Is there a valuation level we could trade off of?
ReplyDeleteHave to allow the market to tell us, I guess.
DeleteSo what is the reason for the latest weakness? Well, according to a report in the WSJ, an unknown amount of Alibaba's "countless" customers - the very basis of the company's ridiculous valuation in the first place - are literally just that: countless. Because they are fake.
DeleteFrom the WSJ:
When Mr. Cui, an entrepreneur in the southeastern Chinese city of Hangzhou, wanted to draw more attention to the hair clips and costume jewelry he sold on the shopping sites of e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. , he says he turned to fake orders. Faking orders, or “brushing,” as it is called in China, involves paying people to pretend to be customers. It lets vendors pad their sales figures and, in theory, boost their standing on online marketplaces, which often give more prominence to high-volume sellers with good track records.
Typically, vendors pay brushers the cost of the products they are ordering, plus a fee. The brushers place the orders and make payments using that money. The vendors then ship boxes that are empty or full of worthless trinkets, while the brushers write glowing reviews.
The practice is considered a form of false advertising, which is prohibited in the U.S. and China. Chinese sellers found doing so face fines and restrictions on their business. But Mr. Cui, who asked to be identified only by his last name, said he relied on fake orders because he felt there was no other way for his products to be seen.
Brushing puts Alibaba at risk of further regulatory scrutiny following its $25 billion initial public offering in September, and calls into question the volume of transactions actually conducted on its platforms, a metric analysts cite in saying it is the world’s largest e-commerce platform. Alibaba says it doesn’t condone fake transactions and that it scrubs them from reporting on merchandise volume, which amounted to 1.68 trillion yuan ($274 billion) for its two main shopping platforms, Taobao and Tmall, in the fiscal year ended March 2014.
If these guys think this stuff doesn't happen on Amazon they're nuts. Sounds like a good way to scare people though.
DeleteDB - Sure enough, this was a technical sell Thursday close..... Then came Friday and yesterday's bull trap.
ReplyDeleteFCAU pulling back, probably on weaker sales numbers in February, but possible because of some of Marchionne's other comments regarding not merging with VW and the Ferrari IPO possibly falling to Q3 or selling more than 10% in the IPO.
ReplyDeleteBut the sales drop is almost certainly weather related as all the automakers missed, and the rest of the stuff I trust Marchionne to do what's best for shareholders, so no real concerns either way.
Yeah I had some concerns about the Ferrari IPO going off on time based on his comments last quarter. It's obviously only a short term issue...and likely would create a buying opportunity if there is a slight delay.
DeleteI sold about 1/4 to 1/3 of my EYES at $15.2 or so I think. Regret not selling some on Friday or yesterday but it went up so quick I didn't even have time to think about it much (we were up in Big Bear all weekend and got back last night). Oh well. I still believe in the technology and will keep some on regardless.
ReplyDeleteI bought back into YNDX today at $16.08. I had sold that on Friday morning to move into EYES.
Smartgun Technology?
ReplyDeleteBMO - Sold their O&G positions prior to the crash I think, no? That should really be a nice positive for this stock?
ReplyDeleteI befriended two communists today:
ReplyDeleteBABA at $80.98
YNDX
Where's Joe McCarthy when you need him?
YNDX should be good to go now the Putin Resistance has been squashed to death.
DeleteGUKYF - Down obviously b/c ISIS is on the run, LOL, thus Iraqi oil can be pumped unfettered and trucked to market.
ReplyDeleteHDSN - Reports tomorrow AMC
ReplyDeleteBNS - "March 3- Bank of Nova Scotia posted a lower-than-expected quarterly profit on Tuesday, hurt by an increase in credit-loss provisions and higher expenses, sending its shares down about 1.6 percent. The results at Scotiabank, Canada's No. 3 lender, round out a mixed quarter for the country's big banks"
Time to buy these banks servicing an exceptionally strong economy, fake selling?
That PATK has been a huge winner. Just looked at that and HDSN today.
DeleteCanadian banks are some of the most expensive in the world on most metrics. They've had a great run the last 12 years or so, with strong commodity prices and a booming housing market, but oil is down and our house prices are too high, so these tailwinds will be turning into headwinds over the next few years. It is still an oligarchy with 5 or 6 banks controlling pretty much the whole market, so they don't compete too much on price and that helps protect margins, but I'd definitely be preferring US or European banks at much lower valuations at this time.
DeleteHmm, expensive, that doesn't sound good.
DeleteBSBR - Wasn't SAN gonna buy this one at $6.50
ReplyDeleteCash is like near $11, trades near half that? WTF?
DeleteOil being up 2% sure is creating a lot of excitement.
ReplyDeletePCRX seems to have found it footing for a reversion to mean trade
ReplyDeleteRL might be coming back to us. Back under $136. Previous low on this downdraft was in the $134's.
ReplyDeleteYeah I hopped out of it last week for a small gain. Still watching it closely. Valuation isn't actually extremely attractive yet.
DeleteThis is why I like YNDX here:
ReplyDelete"In a separate statement on Wednesday, Yandex said that it had submitted a request to the state anti-monopoly body to investigate Google Inc. for possibly violating Russian antitrust law.
Several Yandex vendors had notified the company in 2014 that they are "no longer able to pre-install Yandex services" on Google's Android devices, Yandex said in the statement.
"[The] chances are high that Google will continue this practice," Yandex also said. This has put Yandex "under threat," the company said, hurting its search share on mobile devices in favor of Google .
The Federal Anti-Monopoly Service usually reviews such requests within 30 days. The authority confirmed to local business daily Vedomosti that it had received the 200-page request and would look into it soon.
A Google spokeswoman in Russia said the company couldn't comment on a request it had not yet seen, but added that " users always have a choice of what applications and services to use on Android devices."
Google is presently under an anti-trust investigation by the European Commission .
Nikolai Nikiforov , the communications minister, said in a tweet in early February that Android is "an increasingly closed-off operating system, monopolized by Google ."
Mr. Nikiforov said in a statement on Wednesday that the country will be looking into using free software to ensure " Russia's technological independence."
The ministry has already had several sessions with South Korean technology company Samsung to use Tizen, and Finnish Jolla to use their Selfish operating system in Russia . Russia has increased its scrutiny of the IT industry since the onset of the Ukraine conflict."
A favorable ruling, in my opinion, is highly probable. If it happens the stock goes up to $25. The chart looks interesting too...putting in a positive RSI divergence since early December. I think its gearing up for a move. I moved about 25% of my $$ into that today.
I doubt there would have been a favorable ruling 2 years ago but now it seems likely. If not then I still think the stock could go to $20 to $22.
DeleteYou may well be right on this, but personally, I just can't see putting any money into Russia as long as Putin is running the show there - too much unknown for me.
DeleteRL is not super cheap, but I think it probably won't get super cheap. Look at their growth in revenues and earnings and book value over the last 10 years and their pretty consistent high-teens ROE. I think people will value it as a high-quality company. It is the cheapest its been on a p/e, p/b, p/s, p/cf basis since the financial crisis, so I think a bounce back to the $170's is probable this year, unless more bad news comes out, which would be a 25% move. Not the best, but I think, given the track record of the company, the downside is fairly limited too.
ReplyDeleteYRCW got some volume today. Nervous nellies deserting ship ahead of earnings or fake knockout attempt?
ReplyDeleteLunchtime post:
ReplyDelete(a) The DJIA/SPX/NDQ (US indexes) + EEM (Emerging Markets) are all off about -0.5%, and HDGE is up the same amount.
(b) Surprisingly, bonds (TLT) and miners (GDX), both of which are (usually) negatively correlated to the above indexes, have also sold off. TLT -0.3%, GDX -2%.
(c) Goldcorp, which I closed this morning @ 21.45, is now bidding 20.86.
(d) China lowered interest rates by 25 basis points on Sunday, signaling a change in policy towards aggressive QE. Normally this would light up the Shanghai Composite. Instead, it sold off Monday, which accelerated into a-2.2% decline last night.
I have a negative take on the market right now, but of course the market doesn't care what I think.
Will be taking losses in both RYGBX (Rydex 1.2x Long Bond) and RYPMX (Rydex Precious Metals) at the close.
After the close:
Delete(a) RYPMX closed down -1.76%.
(b) RYGBX closed down -0.53%.
I gave back about 30% of last Friday's gains. Losses are part of the ebb and flow of trading, and taking losses quickly is the best risk management technique I know. No one has ever won an argument with the market.
Why don't I just make the 'good' trades, and bypass the 'bad' ones? It's not possible to know ahead of time! If we knew, they wouldn't call it trading- they would call it printing money.
BOBE - Another one bites the dust?
ReplyDeleteForecasting $1.50 in earnings for 2015. With the stock falling 20% to $48 after hours, still trading at a p/e over 30. 2% yield might help, but I could see this falling by half again.
DeleteThanks, I can wait, especially if it's overpriced.
DeletePCRX - Nice recovery off today's low.....
ReplyDelete