Saturday, March 14, 2015

3/14/15 Just My Imagination




(a) 'Just My Imagination.' https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3YIjpDy3X4o
(b) 'Oh Girl.' https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjN8huzS2Nc
(c) 'Have You Seen Her?' https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjN8huzS2Nc

Against a backdrop of turmoil and violence in the late Sixties and early Seventies, a few Motown/R&B groups released a series of beautiful ballads.

153 comments:

  1. The 15-second intro snares me every time.

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  2. All three of those are stables.

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  3. Mark, my kitchen is done and the attached great room / TV viewing is as well. Just have to caulk the trim (one of those easy to ignore jobs). Took about 4 months in total.

    Kitchen pictures - http://imgur.com/nM8sCMX,2WSanTY,xnSX9sL

    TV viewing - http://imgur.com/F3daExr

    That's me hooking up the TV. I built the wall for the fireplace / TV and it went pretty well, for a IT sales/stock trader guy.

    Hope you can see these pictures.

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    Replies
    1. Wow looks awesome. Great job.

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    2. Thanks. Nice to be done! Had the pressure of getting it finished before the good weather came, so kep me motivated

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    3. Looks great, BB, and an impressive accomplishment. I'm the kind of guy who would screw up an Ikea assembly.

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    4. Yes, great job, I sure the wife is very happy. I see your Durango is getting more upgrades today.

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    5. Thanks guys. Yes, the wife is happy, which really is the most important part of the whole project!

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  4. So, the question is, is FCAU up again because of continued good news like this?

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/four-fca-us-vehicles-garner-130000456.html

    Or is it just getting to be a bit of a momentum stock with people buying because it is up and sexy with Ferrari coming out?

    It is still cheap compared to GM and F on many metrics like P/S and EV/revenue if we can assume they can get up to these other companies profit levels.

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    Replies
    1. It should (and presumably will) always trade at a discount to GM/F but the discount got way too big. I thought all along that it would get to $20 before the IPO and it looks like that's gonna happen. Definitely one of my biggest mistakes over the past few years selling any of my shares. I still have a small stake but not enough to really move the needle...Oh well.

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  5. So the Euro reverses on my capitulation.

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  6. I sold out of my RUSS today at around $15.7 or so. Very tempted to hold that as I think RSX could potentially test the December lows. But too stressful holding those 3x things.

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    Replies
    1. That was a well-timed trade, more so in light of having closed the position a day prior to reopening.

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  7. Numerous divergences this morning.

    (a) $USD futures down significantly (-0.8%). However, both miners and oil futures are selling off as well: GDX -1.63%, USO -3.8%. USO is printing a new 52-wk low this morning, as is OIH (Oil Services).
    (b) US indexes are up about +1%. Yet bonds are also up +1%, and utilities are spiking +2%.

    Not saying the above relationships can't continue, but I'm leaning towards reversion to the mean.

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  8. Found this - still thinking about selling somewhere between 10% and 33% of my FCAU as the higher price means risk is higher and upside less. Not thinking about getting fully out, just want to size position to opportunity size.

    Milan-listed shares in Fiat Chrysler Automobiles
    rise more than 3 pct to their highest since July 1998,
    and up for fourth straight day
    ** Rally attributed to declarations by the carmaker's chief
    executive who said a tie-up with GM or Ford would
    be "technically feasible"
    ** CEO Sergio Marchionne adds in the same interview with
    Bloomberg that there was "nothing substantive" on the table
    ** Fiat shares are the top traded across Europe with more
    than $420 mln traded so far on the day
    ** Traders say comments lifting the stock as they bring
    closer the possibility of further consolidation in the sector
    that would help cut capital costs -- something Marchionne has
    advocated for years
    ** However, analysts say a tie up between FCA and any of its
    two U.S. rivals would be difficult
    ** "A business combination with FCA would be a total reverse
    of Ford's ONE Ford strategy which has seen the company
    streamline its brands, platforms and products over recent
    years," Evercore ISI analyst Arndt Ellinghorst says in a note
    ** He adds that GM's appetite would be similarly limited
    given improving performance in North America and already strong
    presence in South America, Europe and China
    ** Fiat shares up more than 60% this year, the 2nd best
    performer on the STOXX 600 <.STOXX>

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    Replies
    1. If I were in your shoes, I would sell the lower end of your percentage range without hesitation. I'm a believer in intuition (especially when combined with good preparation/groundwork and daily monitoring, which is certainly true in your case).

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  9. I added to my GILD position today, making it my largest position. I understand the competition concerns but the stock trades at 10x EPS / FCF, is buying back 15% of its shares outstanding, and just instituted a 1.5% dividend. The Hep C market that they sell into is enormous and should be able to support a few different drugs. GILD's is a one pill a day formula (vs several for ABBV) and its basically 100% effective. I think the competition risks are more than priced in.

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    Replies
    1. They have earnings coming up in April. My thinking is it could run into earnings back to $110 or so and then I can decide if I want to keep it. I think it should be trading around $140 or so and if earnings are good it could take the competition concerns off its back for a little while, enough to support a price 40% higher.

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  10. Whipsaw volatility in metals this morning.

    http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html

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  11. Reopening a small position in FCX @ 17.60.

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  12. I keep wanting to buy RL but it's not cheap enough I think. Would like to get it around $120 which would be 15x ttm eps. I think that's reasonable

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  13. I sold out of my HABT this morning. I thought about it more and while I do think it will be a longer term winner, I think the odds of me buying it at $30ish again 1-2 years from now are decent, especially if we get a market correction. So I'd rather be in something that is cheap now and has more room for error.

    Speaking of which, I keep looking at KORS. Trades at only 15x EPS but FCF is still pretty low relative to mkt cap. COH is in the same space and trades at similar trailing multiples (fwd is different as KORS is still growing strongly while COH is going through a turnaround). However, COH has much better cash flow. In comparison to KATE both are much much cheaper and better run, although KATE is going through a more substantial turnaround. I think an investment in both COH and KORS should work out well...just a matter of picking the right spot to buy.

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  14. Long RUSS again.

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  15. Wow, canadian dollar is back to 78. I guess its time to start going sking there again when it was 65.

    Ying Yang

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    Replies
    1. Good time to come to Canada - can ski Whistler for US$85 instead of $160 at Vail.

      On a fair value, should be around $0.85 or $1 US$ is worth $1.18 Canadian.

      So with the CDN $ at $0.78, will help our economy by making manufacturing and services more competitive. On the downside, imports and travelling for Canadians to other countries are more expensive.

      I'm sure it is down so much because:

      1. Canada is perceived as an "oil" economy, even though energy is less than 7% of GDP and 2% of employment, but it is the largest factor in our trade balance (in the US, you always call if trade deficit, but Canada, it is often a surplus)
      2. A lot of economists are worried about Canadian house prices, which are very high and never really corrected like the US. Also, consumer debt is as high for Canadians now as it was for Americans when the financial crisis hit.
      3. Currencies seem to trade in long trends, so now Canada is in a downtrend, so who knows when it ends.

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  16. Replies
    1. I just bought back a small position at $12.7 actually.

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  17. Gotta wonder if this move lower in oil is part of a ploy to bankrupt Russia.

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    Replies
    1. Here is two articles I read today on oil.

      http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-16/what-saudi-arabia-told-bank-england-about-why-oil-crashed-and-where-it-headed-next

      http://www.vox.com/2014/12/16/7401705/oil-prices-falling

      that talk about whats been going on.

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    2. and this:

      The energy story is well-known. Prices for West Texas Intermediate
      crude oil, an important benchmark, fell from $100
      per barrel last July to about $55 per barrel recently, after
      hitting an interim low of about $45 per barrel in January.
      That is one of the fastest and most dramatic oil price drops
      in history. Canada is the world’s fifth-largest oil producer,
      after Russia, Saudi Arabia, the U.S. and China, so the impact
      in Canada is enormous, as it is for the other top producers.
      It’s important to understand why this oil price drop
      happened and what those dynamics mean for the price
      going forward. Canada and the U.S. were the two major
      participants in the expansion of shale oil production using
      fracking technology in the past five years. This output was
      so extensive that it threatened a global oil glut, and lower
      prices for all producers.
      This was especially threatening to Saudi Arabia, which
      faced not only lower prices but lost market share. Saudi
      Arabia is the only country in the world that can directly
      affect oil prices on a sustained basis, because it has both
      the largest reserves and the lowest production costs. Oil
      can be produced by Saudi Arabia at less than $10 per barrel,
      whereas shale oil is produced in the U.S. and Canada
      at an average price of over $70 per barrel. Production
      costs are much higher for certain individual projects.
      Saudi Arabia made a decision not to reduce output in order
      to prop up the price in the face of the glut. The result was
      the dramatic price collapse that began last summer.
      However, Saudi Arabia strategically calculated a price for
      its oil that was low enough to put fracking out of business
      but high enough to maximize its own revenues and put
      the least strain on its currency reserves to meet its budget.
      That strategic target price is $60 per barrel.
      Of course, markets typically overreact to sudden volatility
      and overshoot price targets. When the price dropped from
      $100 per barrel to $60 per barrel between July and midDecember
      2014, it is not surprising that the drop continued
      to the lows of around $45. At that point, the market stabilized
      and oil rebounded. It now trades in a range of $50–60 per
      barrel, close to the Saudi target price.
      From this point forward, the Saudi goal is to maintain oil
      in that $50–60 per barrel range for an extended period of
      time, perhaps two years. That will be long enough to shut
      down most new shale wells and to deplete or shut in the
      existing wells.
      Many shale producers will face financial distress because
      of the heavy debt loads they incurred on the assumption
      that oil would remain above $80 per barrel.

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    3. continued:

      Only when world supply rebalances with demand and
      the shale industry is severely impaired will Saudi Arabia
      gradually allow the price to rise. This will result in much
      larger market share for themselves. The bottom line is
      that absent some geopolitical earthquake in the Middle
      East, the price of oil is near its intermediate-term lows.

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    4. Bottom line, NOBODY KNOWS, surprise.

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    5. This does seem very logical to me. For years, the Saudi's held oil in the $25 range (the 1990's I think) as that was the price they considered to be the maximum the market could support without encouraging too much competition. Would make sense the price to control competition would now be in the $50 - $60 range.

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  18. Mark, Hofmeister?

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-03-16/-20-oil-is-possible-but-won-t-last-very-long-hofmeister

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  19. 2nd - my thinking on RSX is that is will re-test the lows from December. With EWZ testing 2009 lows it seems odd to me that RSX hasn't. I guess the $12.50 level from December could constitute a test, but I think lower prices happen. The issue is the shakeouts. Always a chance there's a big spike in RSX (maybe tomorrow?) to $17 or so to get the shorts out and then it barrels lower. I've day traded RUSS several times now the past week, some times a few times a day, and have held positions overnight pretty much every night the past week or so. I probably should just be holding it because if a re-test of $12.50 comes fairly soon then RUSS will go much higher.

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  20. This move lower in oil seems pretty similar to the nat gas supply from 2009-12. The universal story was that natty was extremely oversupplied. This caused a major overhang for prices. More and more stories keep coming out about oversupply in oil.

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  21. Was doing some more research on the emerging markets today and re-read this post from Meb Faber that we talked about last year:
    http://mebfaber.com/2014/03/26/why-value-investing-is-so-hard-russian-edition/

    The key thing to remember with ADRs is that even if a stock market responds favorably to currency devaluations, the ADRs respond very negatively. Take a look at the Micex when you get a chance. You'll see its near 5 year highs. Yet RSX is near 5 year lows. This is because of currency devaluation.

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    Replies
    1. Some of the countries have currency hedged ETF's which are designed to offset this. It doesn't look like one exists for Russia and I'm not sure how well they work, but would definitely be the way to have played Europe the last 6 months if you like ETF's.

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  22. I've been thinking more about strategy for this year and I'm definitely leaning toward keeping less risk on over the late spring/early summer time period. I've gone through my performance over the past decade and it does seem that I hit a rough patch usually in late April-July. I know BB and I talked about this last year and he said I think July turned out to be his worst month.

    I do also have a bit of a feeling that we could see some fireworks in the 2nd half of this year as a result of the crash in oil. Maybe we see a default or two overseas? I don't really have anything to back this up but just something I've been thinking more and more about. I'm trying to force myself to wait on really good opportunities rather than decent ones and have been keeping more cash on hand than in the past, which is hard to do. I think we could see really good opportunities within the next year, especially if we go another 10% or so higher this year.

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    Replies
    1. July is actually a good month for me. It is August that is the worst.

      Looking back at my track record, I should sell if August and go vacation and buy back in November. The period from August - November has averaged out to no gain. There have been some good year for these months of course, but also some really bad ones (2008!). Something to think about.

      The other thing to consider if the average presidential year cycle -http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2012/06/good-time-in-the-election-cycle.html

      Shows us peaking around August before a pretty strong pullback. MIght repeat, especially if we get a strong runup and some real market excitement over the next few months.

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    2. Should have said "sell at the end of July and buy back the end of November"

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    3. Should have said "sell at the end of July and buy back the end of November"

      Delete
  23. USAP - Spit a watermelon seed out of the blue?

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  24. All I ask is one +40% year. Then I can retire from trading.

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    Replies
    1. Based on the returns you guys have been generating, I don't think it's asking too much.

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    2. Then you will want two more. I hit my fantasy goal 2 years ago which was the goal that I would be able to retire with. I have 3x that now and still trade every day. Of course having two young kids changes things but it's a tough game to give up

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  25. tof- Re your comment about 'holding' RUSS, here's a tweet from Charlie to consider:

    Since Jan 2014...
    Gold Miners: -13%
    3x Miners long: -65%
    3x Miners short: -53%
    When using leverage, path matters.

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    Replies
    1. Yeah by hold I mean no more than a few days

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    2. A lot of those leveraged ETFs really suck. Can you imagine going triple short the miners and losing half your money with the miners down 13%?

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  26. FCAU continuing to do well
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/february-2015-fiat-chrysler-automobiles-070300749.html

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    Replies
    1. If f and GM are at $60b why couldn't fcau be at $40b especially when they're monetizing a $10b asset? I keep thinking about this when assessing it's valuation.

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    2. Vs $24b or so right now (fully diluted)

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    3. Not cheap on fwd p/e (12 vs. 9 at F and 14 at GM), but still go back to metrics like Market Cap / Car Sold and P/S, which are all quite low meaning there is room to improve profitability moreso than these other guys and that will drive a higher stock price.

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  27. I sold my RUSS at around breakeven at the open. Bad timing going into the close yesterday.

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  28. BB- Great job on the construction. What's on the wall to the left of the TV?

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    Replies
    1. It takes a professional to ask the right questions.

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    2. Gas Fireplace. There is a reflection from the window in it. We went with the side by side approach as people seem to be complaining about TV's above fireplaces being uncomfortable for watching, so that way they would both be at eye height and fill the whole wall.

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  29. Hopped back into VA at $34.1. I still think this and HA are the cheapest regional carriers. Will sell if it drops below $33.

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  30. What are your guys thoughts on the longer term impact of the Chinese crackdown on Macau? The reason I ask is because both WYNN and LVS are quite cheap if this blows over. There's definitely some blood in the streets over there.

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    Replies
    1. That's kind of a problem when government dictates everything..... Why not consider following the money, skate to where the puck will be?

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    2. What do you think of the possibility a global slowdown is being orchestrated in order to save the planet from global warming?

      Delete
  31. NVDA - Neutral -> Buy - LOL, such clairvoyance.

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  32. Closing TIP. Closing HDGE. Reopened PBR @ 5.15. Added to FCX @ 17.51.

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  33. Adding EWZ (Brazil) @ 29.88 (high of the day).

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  34. Platinum has been in a nose dive since July, PPLT down 28% vs GLD down 17%...... Gold had a strange bounce in January, maybe pent up demand from India, they lifted the import tax, right?

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  35. "Sell your gold" - Sounds like great advice to me.

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  36. Got long RUSS again at $14.88.

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    Replies
    1. Took a small loss in this. I think this could close the gap down at some point at which point I would consider this is much lower risk long.

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  37. Looks to me like all government supports is healthcare and military contractors, to hell with everything else.

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  38. I've been thinking that MITK was at an interesting level. Guess not.

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  39. I plan to close FINPX (Fidelity Inflation-Protected Securities) end of day and reopen RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets). Why reopen a position in Emerging Markets at the high of the day? For the same reason I opened EWZ (Brazil) this morning at its intraday high (29.88)-> EWZ is now trading at 30.42. I think EEM is about to awake from a three-month pause. I may be wrong. That's why trading is never 'easy.'

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    Replies
    1. I agree which is part of why I sold russ

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    2. I'm still long and like my Standard Chartered Bank holding and consider it my safe way to play emerging markets.

      My thinking is longer term of course, but I think the overall improving economy helps a lot of these emerging markets as they can export more to the US and probably Europe as it also continues to improve.

      Delete
  40. Opening ROSE here for a LT trade.

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  41. A list of some beaten down big caps I'm following:
    Qcom
    Intc
    Axp
    Tif
    Kors
    Coh
    RL
    Pvh
    IBM
    Msft
    Tup
    Ko
    Pg
    Aa
    Adm

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  42. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e14253ba-cc9d-11e4-b94f-00144feab7de.html#axzz3UfEveVSX

    IMF delivers a message to Yellen, IMO.

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    Replies
    1. Yellen’s primary caution will be a signal about her rising concerns about INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS (code word for the U.S. DOLLAR) since the DOLLAR is the purview of the TREASURY. Complicating things for Yellen was the stupid comments today from that global ambulance chaser IMF DIRECTOR CHRISTINE LAGARDE that a FED rise in rates will be problematic for the emerging nations that have large DOLLAR liabilities. This is not a new issue for my readers as I directed you to the important BIS Paper by McCauley, McGuire and Sushko, titled, Global Dollar Credit: Links to US Monetary Policy and Leverage, which measures the amount of emerging market corporations and the debt they have in dollars. As the dollar rises against their domestic currencies the weight of the liabilities for those corporations increases.

      Delete
    2. http://yragharris.com/2015/03/17/patience/

      Delete
  43. I'm seeing some good, but not great opportunities in the market. Things like stocks at 2 year lows, but not super low on valuation or others which seem quite undervalued, but have had good up moves recently, so not a good time to chase.

    I'm torn between thinking this is as good as it gets and just buying versus being more patient and waiting for better opps.

    We still are the strong part of the year, presidential cycle, decade, etc. which makes me more inclined this might be all we get, but all I've bought this year is CBI and SCBFF.

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  44. http://yragharris.com/2015/03/17/patience/

    Never has so much money been riding on ONE WORD from a monetary authority. The issue isn’t the idea of FED PATIENCE in regards to raising rates for if the FED increases the effective rate to 37 basis points from 12 basis points IT IS MEANINGLESS. The issue for the FED is the huge pile of bank reserves sitting at the central bank to the tune of $2.7 TRILLION (and let’s not forget the FED‘s $4.5 TRILLION balance sheet). If the economy begins to heat up and banks begin to circulate those RESERVES, the FED will have a velocity of money problem as the ECONOMY MAY BE AT SOME LEVEL OF FULL EMPLOYMENT. It’s not an interest rate problem for the FED but a RESERVE PROBLEM.

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  45. Went long BAC after mkt, will sell before 2PM et.

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  46. TOF asked "What are your guys thoughts on the longer term impact of the Chinese crackdown on Macau?"

    Just looking at the charts and retracements, definite opportunity and WYNN and LVS have good yields; kinda of meaningless when trading them.

    WYNN 131.90, .50 retrace and 105.49, .618 retrace

    LVS 44.79, .50 retrace

    MPEL 24, .50 retrace and 19, .618 retrace

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    Replies
    1. WYNN is the cheapest no doubt. I'm still trying to assess the impact of Macau...

      Delete
  47. Boy it sure seems like RL is short changing people with their dividends. Their payout ratio is around 0.20 versus at least doubt that from COH and VFC. I wonder what the rationale is.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm not sure. All 3 have very good balance sheets with lots of cash and little debt. Perhaps they have some more aggressive growth or acquisition plans. RL has a modest buyback, but certainly could afford to raise the dividend. I guess the optimistic way of looking at it is they have a lot more room to raise their dividend (and have been pretty good about doing so the last few years), so if they continue to raise it quickly, it will attract more yield seekers and help push the stock price up.

      Delete
    2. BB - Yeah that's my point. They have room to raise it to a 3% dividend no problem.

      Delete
  48. You were right 2nd, should have sold some of my FCAU when it was $1.00 higher.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Right so far....this stock has a history of running $2.00 to $2.50 then dropping $1.00.

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    2. Guess I missed that comment, but FCAU is the only stock I have that's working in my favor so naturally it's a sell.....

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    3. "thinking about selling somewhere between 10% and 33% of my FCAU as the higher price means risk is higher and upside less. Not thinking about getting fully out, just want to size position to opportunity size."

      Delete
  49. Added to VA at $32.7 on this downgrade.

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    Replies
    1. I like this idea, How bid a position?

      Delete
    2. Keeping everything at 20% or under nowadays

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    3. NVS - This one's involved in a successful program that uses immunotherapy to cure cancer.

      Delete
  50. BB- Did you see my posts about ROSE from Tudor?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks Mark. I did. Just didn't connect the 2 posts.

      Delete
    2. Trying to decide if I should dump my large cap energy stocks (SU, CNQ), which have actually hung in quite well and move that into the small caps like BXE, JONE and a couple of other Canadian small caps.

      If energy rebounds even to the $70 - $80 range, the smaller guys have way more upside, but the large caps are much safer if oil stays weak or goes down further.

      Delete
    3. .50 retrace from recent low'high is 2.51, now is a decent add point or starter.

      I have been thinking about it since yesterday, just do not know if I want oil here as Cushing fills I think oil could go to 35 and would prefer an entry near there.

      Delete
    4. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    5. Mark, so is this from Tudor?

      TP-

      On the road with ROSE ($17.12 – B) – Spent Mon-Wed this week on the road with the company, which was interesting timing given the equity deal launched on Monday afternoon and the 2015-16 outlook was provided just 2.5 weeks ago. The 2-year outlook (unique in small-cap E&P land) took investors off-guard and the stock plummeted -15%. We believe spending within cash flow and protecting assets in lieu of growth is prudent. We remain positive on the long-term prospects for the equity despite near-term headwinds. This is a stock to buy and hold for investors constructive on 2016+ crude oil prices and resource delineation in the Delaware basin. More below.

      Delete
  51. MDW! Holly chit what happened??

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  52. Damn. I catch an upgrade on KORS and it sends it up a whopping 1%. I catch a downgrade on $VA and it drops it 7%.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah, that figures..... The one thing that's kept me from VA is my broker is negative on it but man it doesn't make sense given fuel prices are cratering? Yeah, I feel clueless.

      Delete
  53. The Dalio rehash/update

    The Dalio Note – Here are some snippets from the FT's front page story on the Dalio note:
    Ray Dalio, founder of the $165bn hedge fund group Bridgewater Associates, said in a note to clients and
    followers that he was avoiding large bets on the financial markets for fear that the Fed’s expected change
    of policy could have unintended consequences.
    The note emerged as Christine Lagarde, head of the International Monetary Fund, warned on Tuesday
    that US rate increases could trigger instability in emerging markets, leading to a re-run of the Fed-induced
    “taper tantrum” of 2013.
    *****
    In Mr. Dalio’s note, the stark tone of which has led it to be widely circulated around the industry, he and
    his co-author urge the Fed to proceed with caution and to set out a public plan B, in case monetary
    tightening goes wrong.
    “We don’t know — nor does the Fed know — exactly how much tightening will knock over the apple
    cart,” Mr. Dalio and Mark Dinner, his colleague, wrote. “What we do hope the Fed knows, which we
    don’t know, is how exactly it will fix things if it knocks it over. We hope that they know that before they
    make a move that could knock over the apple cart.”
    “We are cautious about our exposures,” they added: “For the reasons explained, we do not want to have
    any concentrated bets, especially at this time.”
    The note likens financial conditions today to those in 1937, eight years after the 1929 stock market crisis
    and at the end of four years of money printing that had led to surge in equity valuations. Premature
    tightening by the Fed led to a one-third slump in the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1937 and the selloff
    continued into the following year.
    A word to the wise or, in this case should that be a word from the wise.

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    Replies
    1. While Dalio calls for openness, we have this from Cashin UBS.

      The Other Presence – While most of the talk will be on the probable removal of the word patient and Chair
      Yellen's press conference.
      The FoF and other Wall Street types will look for hints of another influence at the table. Fed Vice Chair, Stanley
      Fischer may be far more influential than most media types assume. In fact, some believe he may be evolving an
      almost full chair role behind closed doors.
      Vice Chair Fischer, has said that he thinks the Fed should hike rates this year and that the Fed should be a good deal
      less transparent. Maybe even a little vague. This will be an FOMC to watch in coming months.

      Delete
    2. Looks to me like the emerging markets are actually rallying here. Maybe they got a different memo? Could be a key tell.

      Delete
    3. I'm losing patience with the entire subject, and I'm wondering what happened to RBS.....

      Delete
  54. Interesting take on FCAU on seeking alpha:

    The IPO of the iconic Ferrari brand is slated to take place in 2015, probably in the 3rd quarter: it will provide a substantial capital sum to help finance FCAU's spending plans up to 2018 as well as a bonus for existing FCAU shareholders. It is planned that 10% of the company will be floated on the NYSE, 80% will go to existing shareholders, and 10% stay privately in the Ferrari family. One reason this IPO has been made possible is the fantastic success that has been enjoyed by the Maserati brand under Marchionne, giving the group a ready-made high-end aspirational super car brand in place of Ferrari.

    MASERATI

    This historic marque has just celebrated its centenary and the market has under-rated both the importance to its future for FCAU, and the master-stroke by Marchionne effectively to replace Ferrari with Maserati.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/3010356-how-long-can-the-fiat-chrysler-share-price-continue-to-rise

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The biggest risk to this stock is if Marchionne falls ill. He's a chain smoking workaholic in his 60's that gets only a few hours of sleep a day. That risk can't be ignored.

      Delete
    2. Yeah, he's gotten a lot of respect and helped the stock price. Would be hard to replace.

      Delete
  55. BB - I saw that reminiscences guy's post about JONE. Is that what is prompting you to re-think your strategy with the energy stocks?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's more because the larger stock I own like SU and CNQ are down 25% off their highs with this fall in oil, whereas stocks like BXE and JONE and most of the other Cdn smallcaps I follow are 60% or 80%.

      So, it's really just a thought that the small guys should bounce better if oil goes up some. I also wonder if oil stays where it is, that the larger stocks may have further to fall. My concern is if oil really does tank down further, many of the small caps would get completely crushed.

      Delete
    2. I think I will do a partial rebalance from the larger stocks to the smaller ones, but haven't done anything yet.

      Delete
    3. His posts seem to be selling opportunities, BXE went from $7 to $8 when he pumped it.

      Delete
  56. WOW, I'm acutally in the green with this one now...... Was anticipating a double bottom or better, place to add.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. DB - Never mind, already back on track in down channel.

      Delete
  57. "FED Dovish, rate hike looks less likely" Surprisingly dovish, "Growth has moderated".

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. When I look at markets and currencies, stocks aren't really up on the fed news, it is just the US$ is down. The S&P has basically moved up the same amount as the Euro, CDN$, Swiss Franc, etc.

      People get all excited about these moves and it does help exporters, but really the value of the companies didn't go up, just the measuring stick went down.

      Delete
    2. I don't see where any trends have changed, hence I'm not anticipating some kind of reversal that wasn't already in process.

      Delete
  58. Tele- yes, that note was from Tudor.

    ReplyDelete
  59. I guess by the nature of the job Fed Chairs have to be slightly creepy.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They couldn't be creepier if they were trying. Unfortunately it provides an example, sets the expectation and sets the tone.

      Delete
  60. ROSE- Took the 7%. For a pretty large position that wiped out 20% of BXE loses. I'll hope to reenter.

    ReplyDelete
  61. How is it possible Rick Santelli hasn't committed suicide.

    ReplyDelete
  62. I want to trade in all my lose change into another currency. Which one?

    ReplyDelete
  63. MDW - Smashed on a day gold lifts $20, that would make me want to sell.

    ReplyDelete
  64. I bet Secret (sauce) Service agents are already popping corks celebrating the Israeli election results.

    ReplyDelete
  65. KRE - Looks like a back test of support knockout move?

    ReplyDelete
  66. Replies
    1. Cans, so keep your beer drinking and soda consumption up.

      Charts decent and lifting off the 50 dma.

      Delete
    2. Current mixer

      RJA
      AIG
      PCRX
      PBR
      AXP
      BAC
      BLL

      Delete
  67. FCAU - We need another down day to establish a parallel channel.

    ReplyDelete
  68. TBT - Not sure what to think, lol.....

    ReplyDelete
  69. RBS - Target is $949? Maybe will test $8? I thought Scotland was doing pretty well?
    $WTIC - Seems to be testing resistance of $45, probably will fail?

    ReplyDelete
  70. T3D,

    Longer term hold on BLL or just a trade? NIce long term chart and I would think a company that should grow with the economy.

    ReplyDelete
  71. I don't get this: "Bonds should be going lower, since a rate hike isn’t in the cards."

    ReplyDelete