Wednesday, March 25, 2015

Comment Cleaner

42 comments:

  1. Will be interesting to see how oil finishes today on the back of that bearish report on inventory. Would probably be best to see continued strength on bad reports to get me convinced. Or perhaps a move above the 200 DMA with a backtest of it, just like in June 2009 with the overall market to get me convinced it was a new bull market.

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    1. I wouldn't call it a bearish report.

      Even though crude was up, gasoline and distillates were down far more than expected and the total of all 3 was less than expected.

      EIA Petroleum Inventories:Crude +8.2M barrels vs. +5.1M consensus, +9.6M last week.Gasoline -4.5M barrels vs. -1.6M consensus, -4.5M last week.Distillates -2M barrels vs. -0.8M consensus, +0.4M last week.

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    2. Was also thinking of buying some energy stocks today. Probably spread my purchases around and do small adds to a number of positions. Spring is often the time oil bottoms as the refiners increase gasoline refining for the summer.

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  2. Interesting article on how Fed policy isn't as easy as every says it is:
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/3016386-fed-funds-not-so-easy-major-implications-for-stocks

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  3. Doubled down on VA at $30.4. Now 6% position. Not really real money.

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    1. Increased it to 8% position. Avg is high $31s. Looking for $35 at least.

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  4. Sure is tempting to buy some long-dated IBB puts. Hard to see this doesn't come back to earth over the next couple years.

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    1. Tough to do it here, after a $25 drop.

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    2. Was under $100 4 years ago. Seems to be trading more on momentum than fundamentals, but really tough to time when these end, so will just stay away.

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  5. EYES - How about this, before it gets away?

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  6. WOR - Ah, there's the double leg down in one day trick that used to nail me every time.

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  7. Replies
    1. Me too. Got up to 10%. Now at $31.5 avg.

      UWTI was the play, though. I'm debating the potential for an oil bottom to myself. Is today a fakeout? One where people agree that oil is done going down because it goes up in the face of bearish data? If so that lends credence to it being a fakeout. I think I'd prefer to either buy on a breakout above the 200dma and retest of the 200 dma or if I want to try to time the bottom then I'd prefer to buy on weakness, not strength.

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  8. Let's light up the day Olivia.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oU5t3Ft5JhU

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  9. ROSE - Mark, so what's wrong with this one all of a sudden, did it get too far ahead of the pack or what?

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    1. Started getting perky, was beginning to wonder when.. :)

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  10. PCRX, does it double bottom here (ah make a stand) or descend to the depths?

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    1. Was looking at this last night...I noticed on some message boards that there's talk of a couple competing drugs out there...need to find what it was that i was looking at since it was late at night.

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    2. PCRX, from a patient standpoint I would like all these benefits, toxicity form drugs is a real bummer.

      Pacira Pharma (NASDAQ: PCRX) announced results of two data presentations on the impact of EXPAREL (bupivacaine liposome injectable suspension) on postsurgical opioid requirements in patients undergoing hysterectomy or mastectomy. The data were presented during two poster sessions at the annual meeting of the International Anesthesia Research Society (IARS), being held in Honolulu March 21st-24th.

      The first study compared the efficacy of EXPAREL to bupivacaine HCl when infiltrated into the transversus abdominis plane (TAP) to provide postsurgical analgesia following robotic assisted hysterectomy in 60 women. Blinded assessments of pain intensity, opioid intake and incidence of adverse events were taken for up to 72 hours after the procedure. In comparison to the bupivacaine HCl treatment group, patients who received TAP infiltration with EXPAREL had:

      Significantly decreased total opioid intake in first 72 hours (by 57%)
      Significantly decreased incidence of nausea and vomiting in the first 72 hours (by 32%)
      Significantly lower maximal pain intensity at all time points (0-24 hours, 24-48 hours and 48-72 hours)

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    3. I sold GILD a few days ago.

      I need to find that mention of competing drugs. I want to say one of them was REPH (look at that chart)??? Can't remember.

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    4. WOW 200% in three months, that's what CP is looking for and the rest of us.

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  11. TIP, bottomed a few days after 2nd sold out, happens to me all the time.

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  12. per Cashin, UBS

    Make Room. Make Room – Traders will carefully note today's 10:30 release of crude inventory data. Here's a
    bit from Bloomberg on the growing oil glut.
    A supply glut has dragged U.S. crude for May delivery almost $10 a barrel below contracts a year out.
    This market structure, known as contango, has encouraged traders to shove the most oil in 80 years
    into storage so they can sell it for more in the future. The problem is, tanks are filling up, according to
    banks from Bank of America Corp. to Citigroup Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
    That’s where the extra space comes in. There’s the normal "working” capacity. And then there’s
    “contingency” space, a buffer between the working storage and the tank tops that typically sits empty
    to keep oil from spilling out. The company that built most of the tanks at Cushing, Oklahoma, the
    biggest U.S. oil hub, says the buffer is about 3 to 5 percent of storage space. That’s equivalent to about
    20 million barrels of room in tanks across the country.
    “Their sole orientation is capturing the contango, and they’re pushing it as much as possible,” Rashed
    Haq, vice president at consultant Sapient Global Markets, who worked with a trader in November to
    model the use of his contingency space, said by phone March 17. “The difference between the

    working capacity and the tank top could be 1 percent, but that’s 1 percent of margin. That’s pure
    profit. That’s in the millions.”
    Traders’ attempts to use every cubic inch of storage underscores how desperate the market has
    become to stow oil. Supplies at Cushing reached a record 54.4 million barrels as of March 13, Energy
    Information Administration data show. Nationwide, stockpiles at 458.5 million are the highest since
    1930.
    Stockpiles at the highest since 1930. That's not a short-term phenomenon.

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  13. U.S. Army Sergeant Bowe Bergdah's attorney says he has been charged with desertion, misbehavior; hearing set April 22 in San Antonio

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  14. INTC (Intel) finally hit my target of 30, and I'm scaling in with a quarter position here @ 29.95.

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    1. I like it. There's a gap a buck lower. Might be a good spot to add.

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    2. I've been watching this one too and eyeing the gap up as well.

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  15. Can someone please close this shit already?

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  16. The market has been 'uninteresting' the past few days. That's changed today.

    (a) Crude is up +3%, presumably on unrest in Yemen. OIH (Oil Services) + XLE (Energy) have rallied +2% in response.
    (b) DJIA off -280 points. SPX -1.2% and now back below even pre-FOMC levels.
    (c) EEM -1.6% to 39.73. It needs to hold above last Thursday's close of 39.49.
    (d) EWZ (Brazil) -1.5%.
    (e) Both TLT (the long bond) and XLU (Utilities) off -0.8%.

    So an interesting mix of price movements. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wovx8GK3WDo&list=PL7iV43teYI2RO1onpwrCIUk7bZFhJNwUv

    Reopening partial positions in RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) + RYTNX (Rydex 2x SPX) at the close. Not exactly high-conviction plays.

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  17. We hit the lows from the Fed day last week. That, presumably, must hold. If so then gap up tomorrow? That's gotta be the pain trade here.

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  18. I went long SPXL 87.9 after hours. Thinking there's a decent chance this drop today gets reversed tomorrow. Not a big position just in case.

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  19. I hear we can use apple pay to receive a complementary iphone? Read all the above posts concerning the remaining current events.

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  20. End of quarter profit taking? Except weren't durable goods orders lower than expectation? Good excuse for EOQ profit taking, full circle.

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  21. Seems like we are going to be weak into the end of the month and the quarter. April, on average, is the second best month of the year after December, so would make sense that we build up the negativity and bounce after this.

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  22. Grover Norquist Is a secret muslim brotherhood agent? Could he be deported for that?

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