Monday, April 27, 2015

4/27/15 Altitude Sickness

(a) Nice overnight reversal in spot silver prices: http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html  It could just as easily reverse again and plunge at the New York open, but following months of negative sentiment the odds have shifted in favor of bulls.  Dips in the mining sector are more likely to be bought by dedicated buyers.
(b) Interesting contrast in sentiment indicators for US markets.  Mark Hulbert's Sentiment Indexes are at or near record highs (bearish): http://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-exuberance-is-at-a-frighteningly-high-level-2015-04-24.  On the other hand, Barron's survey of Big Money managers shows 80% of them expect a 10% correction this year (not outright bullish, but we know the market rarely accommodates consensus expectations!).

Most global markets have ascended quickly over the past several weeks, which doesn't play to my trading style.  One index I will be looking at is Indonesia's Jakarta Exchange, which plunged -3.5% last night to where it started the year.

234 comments:

  1. Grabbed some Twtr at 50.6 pre mkt as I think the downgrade wears off and it runs a bit before earnings

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  2. Looks like the market didnt like the DB reorg pkan. The risk with a catalyst is can go the wrong way too.

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    1. I need to read into this more. The price to book is too compelling to just ignore based on the way it trades.

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  3. MPG - Never heard of these guys before that I recall.

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  4. Scaling into IDX (Indonesia) @ 23.72.

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  5. Added to EYES. I'm trading this based solely on its correlation to AMBS back a couple of years ago. I made about 250% on that one in a few weeks...it's setting up the same way. and if it breaks higher I think it could rip to mid $20s. If not I will sell below the recent lows. About 13% position in this one so a 12% or so move lower wouldn't hurt much.

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    1. OK. It is interesting as hell. Bidding 13.20.

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    2. Craziest technology I've seen in a long time. I made the bulk of this years gains on this stock...

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  6. QSR - Saw that coming, mainly b/c I'd much rather pull into a BK than an MCD for a quick bite to eat while on the road.

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  7. The reversal in metals now parabolic: http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html. Unsustainable? Perhaps. Sentiment is sufficiently negative to drive prices higher.

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  8. Replies
    1. Have you identified the issues? My understanding is their routes have too much competition (this is the bears POV).

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    2. The main overhang is the big shareholders want out. They pulled their secondary (not a true secondary b/c shares outstanding wouldn't go up...it was a secondary to get big holders to sell some of their shares) on Friday and the stock ripped higher. It's a tough stock because of the volatility and people don't trust it because it hasn't been public long enough with enough operating history as a publicly traded company. The other concern that I personally have is there seems to be a lot of bullish retail sentiment on the stock which isn't a great thing.

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  9. Scaling back into PBR (Petrobras) on the -5.3% pullback to 9.45.

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  10. IDX - Is that an earthquake play? If yes then I like it a lot.
    WPT/PCP - These look good to me, WPT is ex-div in a few days.

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  11. I slowly sold out of TASR. My position was too large and its up 10% or so. Plus earnings are on 4/30 so I'd like to have less risk going into earnings.

    Just taking gains quicker of late....really all year long actually.

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  12. ETF's - We have foreign country ETF's but we don't have US state ETF's? Is there some proxy or mechanism aside from picking individual stocks perhaps?

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    1. I'm annoyed there wasn't any triple leveraged etfs on Taiwan. YINN and YANG were great plays on China. EWT is up nicely but I would have preferred a 4% gain!

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  13. Sold TWTR at $52.25. Probably too early but hard to pass up on that 1 day gain.

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  14. PMs up quite a bit, supposedly goes up when rates are falling AND/OR the $US drops, nobody seems to know for sure what makes it move. A trade that's more mysterious than any.

    BXE - Fair value is somewhere between $2 and $3.20, certainly not $10, or $8...... Money losers trend down till they're finally gone completely. Just like PAL, RBY, SVM, MUX..... MDW - Wow nice day now but what if gold (nobody can value it except for Bernanke's salary is paid in gold) had continued crashing?

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    1. I'm still hoping for a big drop on SLCA to buy...maybe on weak earnings this week???

      I'm tempted to fade gold right here.

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  15. Both SBUX and DNKN ripped after earnings so I decided to go long GMCR again for a trade heading into earnings next week. $115.6.

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  16. EYES - Alright the bid filled. Yikes, I'm strapping in, curling up on the floor under the desk and donning the crash helmet......

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    1. haha. me too! this company is legendary in releasing news and having the stock rip $4. I'm waiting for that kind of move. Two catalysts:
      (1) Medicare approval: they only have 1 or 2 regions with approval
      (2) More implants

      A break below $11.50 would force me out.

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    2. This force out may happen faster than I thought.

      IBB tanking doesn't help.

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    3. I keep thinking of the point you made about the gap up on pre-announced news.

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    4. I watched this run $4 higher three separate times on just small pieces of news. That tells me there are too many shorts and / or a good deal of demand. I think there are plenty of catalysts out there to do it again.

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  17. Traders have hit the 'Pause' button on the parabolic rise in gold/silver spot prices (http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html), with silver prices almost +5% above Friday's close. On the other hand, neither are prices pulling back. Taking Goldcorp off the table @ 19.65 for a +3% gain. Goldcorp actually lags most other major miners today: NEM (Newmont Mining) +4.93%, SLW (Silver Wheaton) +5.4%, and ABX (Barrick Gold) +6%!

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  18. TSLA - Zoooommmm DB cranks up their revenue-generating misinformation machine?

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  19. Sell in May? I highly doubt it happens this year.

    We have been conditioned to expect it. Too much so in my opinion. Plus, I think people are finally looking through the soft patches we get early in the year.

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    1. I'm freezing my butt off this past week and have resorted to keeping a fire in the wood stove (I remove tree snags for firewood in the spirit of minimizing my CO2 footprint with the secondary benefit being birds of prey are denied local habitat.), feels like we're skipping May this year?

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  20. Starter position in AMAT (Applied Materials) @ 20.17 on today's -7.5% drop following an announcement it has canceled merger plans with Tokyo Electron.

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    1. Wow, that's probably a great move for AMAT.

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    2. Pretty expensive stock with little/no growth for years. Whats the catalyst on this going forward? I'm assuming you will be out in a day or two anyway so I'm sure you're not concerned.

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    3. Applied Materials: Quick take - TEL merger cancelled.
      4/27/2015 8:42 AM.AMAT announced the cancellation of its $9B merger with Tokyo Electron (announced in Sep 2013). We are surprised by the news. We roughly estimate the downside to around $20 for the stock. We believe there is room for OM expansion and capital returns. AMAT mgmt plans a $3B buyback and will hold a conference call at 8:30AM EST today.

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  21. ASYS - My secret solar play keeps on trucking.... Are these guys the ones who build the molten silicon furnace for NRG?

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    1. The china solar stocks have done very well.

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  22. Damn looks like EYES might be testing my support level quicker than I imagined. Probably should have thought more about buying a false breakdown. Oh well we'll see how it goes.

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    1. On the bright side, FCAU is up but what for? Makes me want to sell FCAU and take those gains before they vaporize.

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    2. Volkswagen chairman suddenly resigned...I bet there's speculation FCAU and VLKAY team up

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  23. Safeway - IPO coming, wonder if they too can buy Hurst Castle beef subsidized by California taxpayers?

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    1. Doesn't look that way:
      Hearst Ranch: "The majority of our production is sold to Whole Foods Market – Southern Pacific Region through a seasonal grass-fed beef program, the first of its kind in the United States."

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  24. Plan to close all Rydex funds end of day:

    (a) RYPMX (Rydex Precious Metals). Current pricing for GDX indicates a +3% gain.
    (b) RYVIX (Rydex Oil Services). Current pricing for OIH indicates a +1.1% gain.
    (c) RYEIX (Rydex Energy). Current pricing for XLE indicates a -0.05% loss.
    (d) RYEUX (Rydex 1.25x Europe). Current pricing for VGK indicates a +1% gain.

    AMAT (Applied Materials) has pulled back further to print a -9.5% decline- hence the earlier starter position. No plans to add further today.
    PBR (Petrobras) has likewise slid further to 9.37.
    GG (Goldcorp) as well, to 19.20.

    Opening a position in RYWYX (Rydex 2x Inverse Emerging Markets). Not so much on conviction foreign markets sell off, but rather a hedge against a broad selloff in global equities.

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  25. Took off most of my positions that I opened today. Just holding some small positions in EYES, ISNS, BKJ and trying to reduce a little risk before apple earnings / Fed meeting, GDP for Q1.

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    1. You have ISNS? That guy "PESSIN NORMAN H • NEW YORK, NY •" has been buying that one....

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    2. Yeah...tiny position.

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  26. ASYS - This guy "schreyer leslie j " keeps buying ASYS.... Any ideas for finding out what's up?

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  27. Grabbed some SDS for a trade...$20.43. I'm sure I'll get hosed but worth the risk in my opinion.

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    1. Agreed. Opened a very small position in EEV @ 15.16.

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  28. Replies
    1. I did have an $0.01 gain/share at one point, lesson: always take those gains......

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  29. Taking PBR (Petrobras) off after hours @ 19.34 for a -0.6% loss. Given the stock's recent +50% run, and in deference to today's negative price action, it just isn't worth the overnight risk. Also taking a -1.1% hit on AMAT (Applied Materials) @ 19.94. 'Hope' for a bounce isn't enough here. All else being equal, hope is generally crushed prior to any significant reversal in price- and I'm not convinced investors in AMAT capitulated today.

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  30. Natty producers need compressors to meet new flaring requirements.... Oh man why didn't I think of that? Wonder if WOR will make the pressurized storage tanks?

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  31. Glad I wasn't hanging out at the Mt. Everest base camp when the quake struck.

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  32. wow:
    Dax (german market) was up 48% from October lows to April highs...in 5.5 months
    the Shanghai Composite was up 99% in the same time frame

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  33. Didn't realize AMAT has a solar division

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    1. I'd be surprised if they didn't offer some type of production equipment for solar film deposition, that's primarily why I've stayed away from CVV and VECO. I don't know if it's CVD films on glass type solar or something involving films on silicon. I bet most of the equipment manufacturers have their hand in that pie to some extent.

      But the molten silicon scooping for making silicon solar substrates sounds like a pretty wicked idea if it really works on a production scale.

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  34. Do not know if you guys and gals saw this but Wall Street Week is back, and is kind of interesting. First show has Jeff Gundlach on and at the end some sentiment talk that validates 2nd's way of thinking.

    Here is the link if interested.

    http://www.marketfolly.com/2015/04/jeff-gundlachs-appearance-on-wall.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MarketFolly+%28Market+Folly%29

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    1. BTW, Gundalach likes gold for the next 6-12 months.

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  35. Iron ore miners and steel are flying, it appears.

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    1. That sucks man. I was looking at these closely yesterday. X looked good. So too did ACHN.

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    2. This morning's action in VALE was classic market whipsaw. The stock treads water around 8.05. A few minutes prior to close of the extended-hours session, it jumps to 8.24. Pulls back slightly to 8.14 at the open, sucks in buyers. The trap door opens a moment later, with the stock trading in the 7.8x range.

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    3. AKS does essentially the same thing best I can tell, and my broker has a $10 neutral target on it.

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  36. EYES - I;m a little confused, is this a genetic therapy technology or optical implant technology? It seems they're working on both?

    ISNS - SOAB, it's moving up and EYES gets clobbered, my luck.....

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  37. (a) Will close RYWYX (Rydex 2x Inverse Emerging Markets) @ the 1030 est window, likely for minimal gains.
    (b) Miners launch a second rally, with GDX up +3%. Goldcorp now 19.8x.
    (c) Not much else looking good. DJIA -80 points following a 'beat' by AAPL (Apple) last night. VGK (Europe) off -0.84%, giving back all of yesterday's gains. PBR (Petrobras) now 9.18.

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  38. Sold SDS at $20.66.

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  39. Obviously in hindsight shoulda' bought that run to $11.55... That obligation is met now go baby go.

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    1. I know, seriously. We need to be more patient.

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    2. You had that retest nailed in advance, gotta trust the charts to some extent too.

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  40. A clean deck helps when navigating complicated markets. Now back to 100% cash- took IDX (Indonesia) off the table at 23.4x to make that happen.

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  41. Bought back into SDS $20.50

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  42. BXE - Loves $3.14, how funny is that trading algo running the show?

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  43. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    1. Over two hundred and ten fine million Americans watching with their four hundred and twenty two million blue eyes.

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  44. Cleared the decks on everything today. Sold out of my EYES at $12 to $12.3. Sold BKJ and ISNS. Moved to 100% cash. Just need a little mental break and would rather do it while I'm up on the year!

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  45. Reopened PBR (Petrobras) on the sudden intraday -5% drop to 8.87.

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  46. After a little thinking, decided to take a position in BIS...small position but I'm hoping the index showed its hand. Long at $33.2.

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    1. It may not mean much but the Nasdaq was on an steady multi year run heading into October 1999. There was a small correction then it had an epic blowoff top into March 2000. You could argue that the same has happened here with biotechs.

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  47. The beatings will continue until moral improves.

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  48. I got screwed a little on TWTR...I bought some when it dipped at $48.4, thinking I would be able to flip it before the market closed then it got halted. So I doubled up at $40.6 when it re-opened and now have a $45 avg. Hoping it rallies back to $50 at some point over the next week or so as I still believe in the long term viability of the business because I use it regularly for real time search and I know a lot of other people do. They need a real management team in there to make it a top notch business.

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  49. WYNN not winning. Down to $116.8 after hours.

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  50. I ended up picking up TWTR for my furniture business and my in-laws at $42.2 avg. Leaving room to add lower if need be but it's now around 11-12 times sales for 2015 which is pretty reasonable given a growth rate of 50 to 60%. I think I should have an opportunity to sell for a 10%+ profit fairly soon, barring a collapse in the market.

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    1. It's not too often you see an opportunity to pick up an institutional favorite @ -20% off. Opening a position at 41.73.

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    2. I bought some again at 41.23, if it holds tomorrow may buy more.

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    3. Speaking of Twitter, here's a tweet re Joni Mitchell:

      http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/joni-mitchell-is-a-coma-792127?utm_source=twitter

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    4. Nice work trading the after hours moves, t3d.

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    5. I decided to peel back my shares to just 1/3 of my original shares in TWTR and took the hit. I'll hold some and look to add. Given my desire to reduce risk and keep things safe, I think this is the smart move.

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  51. IBM - Meanwhile this one has been climbing back.

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  52. This is one time I don't think I bought enough. I'll have to add to TWTR tomorrow.

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    1. tof- I posted the above before reading your comment about cutting back. Here's to an early morning opportunity to add/add back.

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    2. Yeah man probably over reacted. I bought too many shares and had to do a gut check to realize I didn't have the guts

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  53. ISNS - TOF, you sold this one? I know, I know, it hardly seems likely such a puny player could actually make it to the big time....

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    1. Yeah I sold everything yesterday maybe irrationally. I kept some TWTR which I sold this morning as well at $41.3. I only hold bearish stuff right now (BIS, SPXS, SDS). Not sure how long I'll hold those.

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  54. INXX/TTM and others taking off leaving the junky stocks in their dust?

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  55. This is interesting - either we see more downward pressure on dry bulk shipping rates as VALE brings shipping inhouse or VALE sees a rebound in Iron Ore demand coming over the next few years:

    VALE
    WSJ: Vale, Chinese shipbuilders in talks to build 50 giant bulk carriers
    Vale (NYSE:VALE) is in talks with Chinese shipbuilders and leasing companies to build ~50 giant Valemax bulk carriers that would move iron ore from Brazil to China, WSJ reports.Brokers in Singapore say the potential order is aggressive given the soft markets in both iron ore and bulk shipping in general; the Baltic Dry Index has been hovering near 30-year lows since the beginning of the year on weaker imports of coal and iron ore from China.If confirmed, the order would be the largest in history for such ships.VALE -3.1% premarket.

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    1. Good catch, I thought they had some ships but sold them.

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  56. FCAU - We've got our parallel channel now, lets see how the retesting goes....

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  57. Rates seem to be lifting (Jinx!)...

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  58. EYES - YYYYeeeeeeeeeee HHHHaaaaaa, this sucker's green!!!! :)

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  59. SSYS/DDD - I give TOF credit for talking me out of this space, it's become too crowded with "me too" companies.

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  60. MD - Banning polystyrene packaging.

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  61. GDP - Looks like it's up by over 2%, to me.....

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  62. Hmmm. I completley missed the TWTR fun yesterday. What was problem?

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  63. AFK - Would Africa perhaps be the next frontier for big banker exploitation?

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  64. FCAU - I must be the last one on TT to exit? I dunno about this one, seems weak, BANG OUCH.....

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    1. One thing that puts me off is when I hear Macaroni wants to merge.... That tells me he thinks the marketplace is too competitive.

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    2. Without Ferrari IPO it's a $8 stock. That's the risk you run. I've been on the sidelines for a little while and hoping we see low $14's again.

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    3. Interesting that Ferrari is half of that total.

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  65. Back to cash on everything. Sold BIS, SDS, SPXS. Made a whopping $2,000 today with too much stress.

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    1. On average, I've been losing near that much daily in this bull market, without being short.

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  66. TCK - Only up a mere 15% this past week, now at resistance. Question is, will it break out? I doubt it?

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  67. WYNN, about the only thing I can hang my hat on is a .618 at 105.49 on a monthly. It most likely holds/bounces at that level.

    Like TWTR its a minefield, but if I had to put some money in mkt LT I would look here rather than other extended div stocks. Of course very few few hold LT, notable exception BB.

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    1. Of course very few here hold LT, notable exception BB.

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  68. BAC - Seems to like lifting rates. Interesting rates are higher in US than France for instance so there must be some incentives wafting that could totally reverse?

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  69. Gundlach, interesting, thinking of going long TLT before FED decision.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-04-29/jeffrey-gundlach-s-history-lesson-on-the-fed-and-bonds

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  70. Strange Market

    TLT -1.44%
    SP -.73%
    USD -1.35%
    WTI 2.84%

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    1. Like a spring popped and there's a rush to stuff that's already taken a hit and away from stuff that's fully priced. Next, oil weakness as those nickle and dime gains are harvested in preparation for re-entry in beaten down stuff?

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  71. And this is why I don't want to engage with this market. I was loaded up on shorts, couldn't take the volatility, sold at a small gain to get out, and am now watching it barrel lower, missing out on a very nice day. On the flip side, all of my longs from the past few weeks have been bludgeoned.

    The market has been holding up but most stocks underneath the hood that I follow have been losing ground. I'd rather sit aside and wait for better prices.

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    1. Numbers anyone?

      The S&P topped on 3/24/2000. The next top on 10/11/2007, which was 2757 days from the 2000 top. Today is 2757 days from the 2007 top (Hat Tip Jon S.).

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  72. FCAU - Well, I was stopped out @ $15.70, damn I knew that fake pop was a sell..... I feel like broad weakness is heightened due to it's normal on FED day nervousness. Now FCAU can burst higher without me I've had enuff of it.

    Looking forward to those low $14's now, who knows maybe slightly lower?

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  73. I've become more and more convinced of the importance of the Fed on the market. I thought for a long time it was because of sentiment and business cycles but I think both are being driven even more by the Fed. This makes me a lot more unwilling to take on risk. Having said that, I do think the market withstands the first and maybe even the second interest rate hike. Afterward, though, I think it takes a pretty big header. Not sure of the timing on this though. I'm just going to keep this in mind, avoid trading around the Fed days, and look to get to all cash after the 2nd raise, whenever that comes. I'm assuming it's some time next year.

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  74. Per Cashin UBS:

    Is The Fed Into Game Theory Or at Least Game Playing? – Some of us think that this FOMC meeting may be more about strategy than it normally is. And, this strategy may be more of the "does he know that I know what he knows type" than simply about rate strategy.
    We all know the FOMC is made up of various levels of hawks and doves. We also all know that the voting members of this particular FOMC are more dovish than any recent group.
    We think that the key, however, may be the vice chairman, Mr. Stanley Fischer. He is highly respected broadly but perhaps even more so on the FOMC. He literally taught Ben Bernanke and served as Chairman of the Bank of Israel.
    Our readings of Mr. Fischer's speeches and writings lead us to conclude that he believes in several things. First, is that being at zero is potentially a dangerous thing, particularly if economic, or even geo-political situations change. Secondly, he believes the Fed has been too transparent and had handheld the markets virtually every step of the way. He believes it is very, very important to raise rates this year.

    Yet, the rest of the FOMC is a good deal more hesitant. They hear the likes of Dalio, Gundlach and Druckenmiller warn of repeating the "error of 1937", when many contend that Fed tightening to destroying a fledgling recovery. Some share those same fears.
    That's where the potential strategy comes in. If Vice Chair Fischer can get the FOMC to issue a statement hinting that liftoff is imminent, or even near, they can watch how the markets react. If the reaction looks too negative, they can explain that the markets misunderstood and that no rate hike is near.
    If the Fed in fact, actually raised rates and the reaction was disastrous, it could be disastrous to Fed credibility and cripple its effectiveness.
    Therefore, the best strategy is to lead the markets to believe that liftoff is proximate, and then gauge how the markets react to that assumption. That's what we are guessing Mr. Fischer hopes to achieve. Let's see how the game evolves.

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    1. I think FED officials are well paid for their opinions, they're in the business of transferring wealth.

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  75. TDW - Had a tiny gain on the $26.22 entry so took it @ $26.75 just prior to the little spurt to yet another intraday high, ughhh.

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  76. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kz8_ZePCTqM

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  77. I did buy some things a little while ago but will probably clear them out. AFL / MET / BITA / GILD. 6% positions in each. Rest in cash.

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  78. EVA - Lets save the planet from ourselves by cutting down wildlife habitat and burn it for fuel. I think I'll cut some trees down and cut them up this weekend, myself.

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  79. Re FCAU, I am still holding.

    The way I look at it is it is still up 35% YTD, so if it is flat the rest of the year, still a very good year. There is some risks to the downside, but also risks to the upside if Marchionne can pull off some of the things he is talking about. The Ferrari IPO is a go for Q3, so that should start getting priced into the stock soon, and once we get a market value for Ferarri, people will start using that in their valuation models.

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  80. FCAU- I was just reading the CEO's comments about consolidation and didn't like the tone either. Sounded kinda strange. So I'll bail as well. great trade though guys. I'll take 50% any day.

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    1. "Consolidation" Seems too much like a desperate plea for a buyout valued at $16.72

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    2. I don't think he's desperate as the current auto cycle probably has a number of years to run to rebuild the auto base in North America and FCAU is doing very well here. I think he's looking out a few years and setting things up for a merger before the next down-cycle.

      I do think some of his other points like raising North American margins could work given their seemingly lower prices than GM and Ford. Stock is expensive now, but it's trading at a 10 p/e on 2016 earningns.

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    3. Average vehicle age in DC metro is 11 years, I guess their years are numbered for sure. Wondering if parts suppliers beat up pretty good too?

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  81. BAC looking good today as rates start to look like they actually will go up this year.

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    1. Sure does..... sorta like X looked previous to today?

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  82. "I drove a new car a few days ago and the technology drove me nuts, car beeped at me if I swerved on purpose, there were no buttons on the radio, the seatbelts clenched me tight when I put it in drive....."

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  83. (a) TWTR (Twitter) now @ 38.23, an additional -9% from yesterday's close. My take is that today's brutal selling is encouraging, at least from the perspective of flushing out weak hands. Next support level will be 35, and I'll wait for another selling wave to that level before adding additional shares. A -30% two-day drop in a stock with high institutional presence is unusual, IMO a 'buying opp.'
    (b) The FOMC leaves a June rate hike on the table, which has markets under pressure.
    (c) Germany's DAX posted its largest one-day point drop since 2008 this morning, off -379 points (-3.21%). HEDJ (Europe hedged) off -3%, and VGK (Europe unhedged) off -1%-> the Euro up +1.2% against the $USD.
    (d) EEM (Emerging Markets) off -1.1%.
    (e) GDX (miners) backing off earlier highs, but still +1% going into the close.
    (f) TLT (long bond) continues its recent string of losses, declining another -1.2% today.

    It's easy to be negative here. I think Emerging Markets, Europe, commodities, and miners are 'consolidating' recent gains. I'm neither a long-term investor at current levels, nor a self-proclaimed market guru, so I'm comfortable saying market dynamics are somwewhat 'complicated' here- certainly above my pay grade!

    I'm going to try a series of place bets against crowd action, with positions to open end of day:

    (a) RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets)
    (b) RYGBX (Rydex 1.2x Government Long Bond)
    (c) RYEUX (Rydex 1.25 Europe)
    (d) RYPMX (Rydex Precious Metals)- more of a contrarian bet against gold bugs who sold into the post-FOMC announcement

    Note re TWTR (Twitter)- if you bought into yesterday's -20% plunge (which I believe was a good move), then today's -9% decline probably puts you near Desolation Row. That's exactly where we want investors in the stock headed.

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  84. Almost as if there must be an imbalanced rocket careening completely out of control somewhere in outer space.

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  85. VA governor opposes license plate analyzers on police vehicles, too complex.

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  86. So let me get this straight, any yahoo nut case can fly an ultralight right through the no-fly umbrella up to the whitehouse, virtually undetected....

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  87. SAVE - So airlines are done now that oil prices are returning to $100?

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  88. CVEO - Our favorite sweat lodge seems to have leveled out. Talk about a perfect storm.... oil crashed just as they were attempting to lever the company into a Superlodge REIT. Perhaps shipping containers sporting window cutouts and interior paneling don't quite qualify for REIT status?

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  89. IDX - 2nd's Indonesia play might be ending a selling spree?

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  90. TEX - Maybe this one's breaking out?

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  91. EYES - Certainly back on same track prior to the pop on "news"

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  92. I bought some BIS into the close today and that's all I'm holding. Risk just seems pretty high right now.

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  93. EVA - Not trading upward in AH, wonder why not....

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  94. "5% of small US businesses are accessing foreign markets."

    Doesn't this sound like there's plenty-o' room room for improvement? AMZN/EBAY/UPS/FDX/????

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  95. Another justification to look at PM's:

    http://shortsideoflong.com/2015/04/chart-of-the-day-silvers-bear-is-4-years-old/

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  96. This is a very interesting stock: LC

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    Replies
    1. check this out:
      http://www.lendingmemo.com/wells-fargo-peer-to-peer-lending/

      This could be a stock you just buy and stow away for 10 years. Buy it for a young kid in your family.

      Delete
    2. Very expensive stock and the article seems pretty promotional to me.

      Maybe it works, but hard to see broad use for this. Maybe it's a Canada thing, but people tend to like the guaranty and safetey of the bank.

      Delete
  97. SHW looks very bloated:

    Look at the PE of this time relative to its 10 year history (click on "Select a Metric > Valuations Ratios > PE Ratio" in chart area and uncheck the "SHW Revenue per Share ($)" box to see only PE ratios over past 10 years)

    http://www.gurufocus.com/financials.php?symbol=shw&Submit=Go

    Historical average is around 15. Its now over 30. They just reported their first earnings miss in I don't know how long. Revenues are stalling. I think a lot of people are just projecting out into the future based on past growth so could be some near term risk. Could be a good short.

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    Replies
    1. Even fwd p/e on Yahoo over 21. It could be people buying as a way to play the rebound in housing I guess, but not a good risk/reward way to do so.

      I think there's a lot of these types of stocks where they are perceived as steady growers with a dividend which are overvalued. They also tend to make up a lot of the indexes, so we could see pressure on the broad market as they get pressured by higher rates.

      Delete
  98. (a) EEM (Emerging Markets) set to open off an additional -1%. I took advantage of pre-market weakness to open positions in EWZ (Brazil) @ 35.90 and Brazilian miner VALE @ 6.94.
    (b) GDX (miners) off -2% on a plunge in spot gold/silver following jobless claims (which came in better than expected). I opened positions in GDX and Goldcorp @ 20.26 and 19.74.
    (c) TWTR (Twitter) seeing a +2% bounce.
    (d) Germany's DAX printing a +1% dead cat bounce.

    None of the Rydex positions I opened yesterday look 'good' right now.

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  99. EYES - Took 2/3 off the position, comfortably small now.

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  100. KEX - Lots of charts doing this lately.

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  101. BXE - This one's still dragging me down, sheesh......

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  102. Replies
    1. Maybe for a quick flip. seems to have calmed down volume wise. I think those 'consolidation' comments will resonate negatively for a while.

      Delete
  103. 1/2 price sale on YELP from highs.

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  104. I plan to add to RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) at the 1030 est window.

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    Replies
    1. Does this conflict with taking losses immediately? Technically, yes. However, the markets are indeed 'complicated' right now, and I'm playing small. Smaller sizing gives me added flexibility, and trading requires a little creativity. In any event, I'm prepared to lose (which in my opinion is true preparation!).

      Delete
  105. EYES - "Bionic eye" - Just heard about it on the radio, sounds compelling! :)

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  106. Shorted shw at 279.3 and added to bis at 33.9. Holding lots of cash

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    Replies
    1. I like the SHW play from an industry perspective.

      Delete
  107. Downtown Josh Brown ‏@ReformedBroker 2h2 hours ago

    Hussman saying "fair value" on the S&P 500 is about 940.

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    Replies
    1. I say 'fair value' is what a buyer is willing to pay. In that sense, fair value comes down to 'it is what it is' at any point in time.

      Delete
    2. Make that 'what a buyer and seller are willing to agree on at any point in time.'

      Delete
    3. He's saying the $US is undervalued.

      Delete
  108. Now that's what I call a selling wave in global assets (stocks, bonds and commodities- nothing was spared)! If it has to happen, then a 'whoosh' down is the way to go. Not saying we're out of the woods, but a turnaround set-up is in place. Should we continue to sell off into the close, then the bullish scenario has been negated, and a longer decline is likely.

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  109. Oh dang, NASA attempts to knock Mercury out of orbit today......

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