There are many ways to play the capital markets. You'll generally find me 'sweeping up with Cinderella after the ambulances go' (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AL1HUsJJCzU) or 'picking up the broken pieces of yesterday's life' (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EbKwTpTja98). I've traded in and out of Petrobras (PBR) for months, through the recession in Brazil, last winter's oil shock, and most recently the 'Car Wash' kill shot (http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2015/02/11/a-corruption-scandal-at-petrobras-threatens-brazils-bond-market-and-economy/?_r=0).
Occasionally, it's time to Get Shorty. Today's earnings 'beat' (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-15/petrobras-first-quarter-earnings-beat-analysts-estimates) is a shot across the bow, spiking share prices 6%+ after hours. Short interest is significant:http://247wallst.com/investing/2015/05/12/the-5-most-shorted-nyse-stocks-in-april/. There are no certainties in the market, of course, but odds favor a squeeze beginning Monday. It's hard to describe the panic that ensues when investors are caught 'short,' but James Taylor comes pretty close:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kfzMLRzH2yw. Incredible performance.
2nd - Howard Stern had an excellent interview with James Taylor this week. He gets flack for a lot of things, but not for being a bad interviewer.
ReplyDeleteI agree with BB's last comment. I always laugh when I hear people say "the easy money has been made already" as if buying when everyone is bearish is easy. Give me a break. There's no such thing as easy money in the markets. It's all about calculated risks.
By the way, I've always felt that Stevie Ray Vaughn on the guitar on this song would make Steamroller an all time great song. I always thought this song was excellent but lacked a great guitarist...
Great performance by James and entourage. Here's on of a different sort.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2015/05/huge-school-of-bobular-rays-off-the-coast-of-baja/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheBigPicture+%28The+Big+Picture%29
Another good song from 2nd stream.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBG5PQuW6oo
a mellow tune
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3G_msX9iHwg
Do Ya
ReplyDeleteYou wanna be right? Or make money?
http://adamhgrimes.com/blog/you-wanna-be-right-or-make-money/
CBI up about 12% the last 2 days on the announcement of a big LNG project win in Mozambique.
ReplyDeleteStock still only at a 10 p/e and it generally trades at mid-teen's p/e, so still should be another $20 of upside. Maybe we get a pullback, but I'm just going to hold and hopefully ride it upwards.
Sold my shares in ASC - Ardmore Shipping, the chemical tanker company. Was up 15% in about a month, so nice win, but I'm basically following the Reminiscences guy's lead on these tanker stocks and he sold at lower price which he thought was fair value.
ReplyDeleteHe did add to some other tanker stocks, so will do some more thinking about this. Still hold my position in NAT which has bounced again and now is up 10%.
I don't trust those stocks.
DeleteYeah, I know what you are saying. It is not a big position for me.
DeleteBut the fundamentals look very good - tanker rates are great and the supply / demand fundamentals look good with demand looking to increase due to increased middle east production, Iran sanctions coming off, shipping times increasing due to oil going to the far east instead of the US.
Maybe with everyone being cautious like us after being burned in the shipping oversupply and crash, this will turn out to be a very long term, durable rally. Many fortunes have been made in shipping, so it is the type of industry that can generate great profits.
Because of this, I do think the risk / reward is good and am willing invest in it.
FRom Jeff Saut:
ReplyDeleteMonday is shaping up as a non-event with the trading action. Indeed, the preopening S&P futures are directionless. By mid-week, however, the stock market’s internal energy should be ready to be released on the upside; and that energy is as high as I have seen it in years. This suggests that the upside fireworks should begin in the Tuesday through Thursday timeframe with a very near-term price objective of 2145 – 2165
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000380453
ReplyDeleteThe more I see headlines like this the more convinced I am we will see a fairly significant move higher.
That IBB is setting up EXACTLY like the 1987 stock market crash. If we do get a rally into August I will be looking to trade BIS
I keep an eye on this too. I keep thinking of buying Put Options on this, but luckily haven't yet. An 1987 ramp up could be very profitable as 1 month out options are going for a 2.7% premium, so if we got a 25% crash, would be a 10-banger.
DeleteI really can't see how current valuations can be justified once they have to start trading on p/e's, etc. but timing things like this is very difficult.
I have had a detailed chart of the 1987 crash front and center for the past 6 weeks and have been tracking the trading in IBB vs that. This is my call...that GILD will propel IBB to new highs to around $400 and then if the moving averages roll over we could see a similar setup. I really want to keep this idea low key though because the second it gets sniffed out by the media is the second it doesn't happen.
DeleteFrom a multi-year level, looks like the 1920's market as well.
DeletePBR opened +4%, only to reverse to trade -3.6% heading into the final hour. The 'squeeze scenario' may have been the crowded trade. I'm hanging in there for now, and considering a second tranche if prices begin ramping at the close.
ReplyDeleteNice European sales from FCAU. Moved Ahead of BMW and Mercedes this month
ReplyDeleteFiat Chrysler Automobiles April European car registrations: +13.4%
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (NYSE:FCAU) European car registrations +13.4% to 78,957 units in April, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association.Overall EU registrations +6.9% Y/Y in April, led by a strong month in Germany, the U.K., and Italy. YTD registrations +8.2%.Fiat Chrysler Automobiles market share: 6.5% vs. 6.2% a year ago.Fiat Chrysler YTD registrations +12.1%.Results include the Fiat, Jeep, Lancia, Chrysler, and Alfa Romeo brands.
ENPH upgrade getting sold.
ReplyDeleteTaking both PBR (Petrobras) + VALE off at the open for losses. PBR @ 9.30 for a -6.7% hit, compared to a +6% gain had I closed Friday afternoon. VALE @ 6.55 for a -7% hit. I was completely wrong on both positions.
ReplyDeleteRYWVX will be taken off at the 1030 est window for a projected -3% loss.
$USD spiking >1%, taking crude + miners down -2%. The Euro off -1.4%. Gains in Hong Kong + China offsetting a decline in Brazil, with EEM flat.
I've had a bad streak, will probably hang it up for awhile. As you know, my 'take' looking forward is pretty bearish, and 'sidelining' fits well with my aversion to shorting.
Maybe this will goose TWTR
ReplyDeletehttp://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Twitter+%28TWTR%29+Partners+with+Google+for+Real-Time+Content+in+Search+Results/10578274.html
just added to my -10% down position at 37.61
EXAS, 2nd is having a nice couple of days.
ReplyDeleteSorry, dude. I closed that position.
DeleteA significant percentage of the time, taking a loss immediately leads to regret as the position then reverses and takes off. That's not the case today. PBR (Petrobras) is now bidding 9.08, and should it continue south I wouldn't want to be selling into panic.
ReplyDeleteTrading is a game of pattern recognition. I place bets on crowd behavior based on recurring behavioral patterns. It's never 100% reliable, or it wouldn't be called trading.
BXE - This company picked up another $250M of debt this week, at 8.5% - Thought I'd mention this as only positive notes ever seem to be noted, lol.
ReplyDeleteCP,
DeleteI posted at least 2 and, I believe, 3 times on this debt offering.
It's expensive debt, but as I posted on May 12,:
Moody's announced their assessment of the BXE bond offering. While it is not AAA (not a surprise), it is better than the midpoint and quite a bit better than the average US energy company. I think this shows that BXE is dealing with their financing concerns very well and should bounce back as smallcap energy companies rebound.
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-Publishes-Covenant-Quality-Assessment-for-Bellatrix-Exploration-Ltd-Bond--PR_325206?WT.mc_id=AM~WWFob29fRmluYW5jZV9TQl9SYXRpbmcgTmV3c19BbGxfRW5n~20150512_PR_325206
Okay, sorry I thought the Moody's report was a separate subject for some reason. Wow, that seems like a really high rate too bad we aren't in on that end of the deal.
Delete(a) The dollar soars +1.5%.
ReplyDelete(b) The Euro dives -1.5%.
(c) Gold dives -1.5%. GDX (majors) dives -3.5%.
(d) Oil dives -4%. OIH (Oil Services) dives -3%. XLE (Energy) dives -1.5%. PBR (Petrobras) dives -6%.
(e) TLT (the long bond) is off -0.6%, continuing yesterday's spectacular -1.7% reversal from Friday's equally spectacular +2% short squeeze.
It really doesn't matter what (a) through (e) 'means.' No one really knows (if they did, they would be able to consistently profit from the knowledge). So the financial media is just entertainment. If we walk away for a few months and return to trading, nothing will have changed
ENPH- We'll that was interesting....and disappointing to LT holders.
ReplyDeletePickens bought tanker stocks, DHT & FRO?
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete