Since 'hanging it up' May 19:
(a) EEM (Emerging Markets) has slid from a closing price
of 42.78 to its current bid of 41.12 (-4%).
(b) GDX (miners) from 20 to 19.60 (-2%).
(c) SPY (SPX) from 213.03 to 211.22 (-0.85%).
(d) EWZ (Brazil) from 35.54 to 32.29 (-9.1%). VALE now 6.38. PBR (Petrobras) 8.38.
The Shanghai Composite tumbled -6% Wednesday night, then
an additional -5% last night before recovering to finish with a small loss.
Bought into KORS today at $46.4 avg. It now trades at 10.5x CY EPS estimates. The quarter was not that great but they were hit pretty hard with currency changes. For example, if you look at their Europe business, they had mid single digit negative same store sales but on a constant currency basis their sales were up about 11%.
ReplyDeleteI think it can bounce to at least the mid 50's just to get it in line with competitors like FOSL.
Bidding ENPH @ 9.44.
ReplyDeleteNope.
DeleteI'd appreciate another discouraging week.
ReplyDeleteMe too.
DeleteRBS - That was a lot of volume.
ReplyDeleteI've been thinking of starting a second career playing the piano. Not necessarily performing, but composing and/or arranging. I turned 61 in April, so I figure that gives me about twenty years to make my mark. There must be a ton of musicians or composers that did it in less than twenty.
ReplyDeleteThese guys could use some of your help 2nd.
Deletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2015/05/u2-busking-in-subway/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheBigPicture+%28The+Big+Picture%29
I didn't know there was a word for it.
DeleteSeriously, in the 18th and 19th centuries, all artists made their mark in less than twenty years. They were lucky to live into their late thirties/early forties. It's unreal that we can expect to live into our eighties and nineties.
Sounds great 2nd. My father-in-law took up painting at 63 when he retired and became very good and sold a few although he mainly gave them away to friends and family. But he really enjoyed it, which was the important thing.
DeleteI think you should pursue your interest 2nd, we find gratification in the pursuit of a goal.
DeleteLook forward to hearing it.
My first request is a disco song. :)
DeleteIf someone carrying a fake series of explosives strapped to their back through airport security then why wouldn't someone have already carried the real thing if they really wanted to, as we're being led to believe?
ReplyDeleteEYES - Yep, we shoulda-coulda, lol too predictable?
ReplyDeleteI'm seeing some pretty volatile trading out there. You guys?
ReplyDeleteIt did seem like some hard selling this morning, but looks like it has stopped for now.
DeleteWhat I really like about this market is how jittery and negative people seem to be, even as we are very near all-time highs. Indicates to me we eventually probably move higher.
For my 2nd career I want to buy one of those ice cream trucks you drive around and sell stuff to the kids.
ReplyDeleteENPH- Is this sucker gonna finally test 8 after all??
ReplyDeleteI'm still seeing far too much negativity / skepticism. Certainly too much to mark a top is what I'm thinking. I'd love to see a 10% rise in IBB going into the fall. I want to buy some BIS.
ReplyDeleteI grabbed a small position in PBMD around $2. Just looking for a bounce.
Happy to see a nice bounce in IACI and KORS. Still holding a 1% position in HGSH and 5% or so in CRNT. I think CRNT has a chance to really turn things around and see its stock go to $5 within a year or two. Its getting a lot harder to find companies with that low of a P/S, 40% of market cap in cash, positive free cash flow, etc.
None of you guys are likely interested, but bought shares in a small Maine bank, KTHN. It's an over the counter, very thinly traded stock, so hard to buy and hard to sell. But what I like about it is:
ReplyDelete1. Regional bank, which should do better as interest rates rise
2. Cheap on all metrics
3. Did well through the last financial crisis
4. Growing business
5. Long history
The stock has been trending down since last summer either because it announced a bit weak earnings due to increased loan losses or because they issues some preferred shares. The current earnings were good, not great, but they now redeemed some other preferred shares to improve their capital position. Pays a good dividend too.
A lot of the value guys keep pushing regional banks, but every one I've looked at has had issues (additional share issues, high p/e, above book, needed TARP in the crisis). This is one that is good on all things I looked at, with the only downside being the low volume and OTC status. Plus, with the consolidation going on in the industry, may be a takeout candidate. Because I am patient and don't need a huge position like a fund would, I am happy to just take time buying and selling and think I will do well.
I like it. They have a bunch of locations way up in the boonies. Not sure what the local economy is like up there. I love Maine.
DeleteKind of reminds me of BKJ, but smaller and presumably in a less affluent (but also probably less competitive) location.
Any idea if they will be paying a bigger dividend. Seems like they have a lot of room to boost it.
DeleteOh wait...I was using the GuruFocus data which has really old data. Looks like they pay $0.40 per year or about 3.5%. Thats a nice yield.
DeleteThis is a very cheap stock. Trades at around 1/2 book
Small state, economy is OK. But they've also made over a dollar a share every year the last 10 except 2008 when they still made $0.60, so they know how to manage. I would imagine competition is not strong either.
DeletePlus they had ROE's in the mid-teens back before the financial crisis. So maybe we don't get back to those levels with the restriction on banks now, but let's say we get to a 12% ROE, that would be 50% up from current levels, so $1.65 EPS, then if you can get a 13 p/e on that, it is a double from current levels.
In the meantime, the 3.5 % yield is decent and the downside limited due to the discount to book. Book value is $14.93, tangible book value is $13.20.
And like I said, you have a lot of value guys like Tim Melvin and the Contra the Heard guy pushing these small regional banks as the expectation for better profits with higher rates. I like being on side with people like this.
I got my first dividend in 5 years on Saturday from my position in IACI. Nice feeling to get dividends.
ReplyDeleteSure is. About 10% of my gains come from dividends.
DeletePBR talking about doing a 100 year bond issue at around 9% interest - can't imagine buying into something like that
ReplyDeleteWow - tickersense bull/bear report showing only 13% bullish - http://tickersense.typepad.com/ticker_sense/
ReplyDeleteWas low like this only 3 times in last 3 years - june, 2103 and Oct, 2014 - both were good times to buy, especially Oct, 2014
Seems quite strange with market still very near alltime highs
Buy yourself a falling knife or two:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.brandes.com/docs/default-source/brandes-institute/falling-knives-around-the-world-paper
Good report. Interesting that the median stock underperforms the benchmark, but the average, especially over 3 years significantly outperforms. Makes sense as it takes times from stocks to recover from these 60% drawdowns they focus on. I think too many people who say "never catch a falling knife" are traders looking for a quick flip.
DeleteBeen watching MTW, which Carl Ichan own and has organized a split of the crane and food services groups. Not a super-cheap stock and the split won't be till early 2016 and there are $140 million of costs for the split, but it does make a lot of sense that both companies could outperform going forward and now more of the hedge fund heavies piling on.
ReplyDeleteMTW
Manitowoc rises as Glenview Capital discloses 7.06% active stake
Manitowoc (NYSE:MTW) +2.7% AH after hedge fund Glenview Capital discloses a 7.06% active stake totaling more than 9.6M shares in the company, up from the more than 8.6M shares held as of March 31.Larry Robbins' fund says it may discuss with MTW options for exploring alternatives that could enhance shareholder value.
ReplyDeleteDid you know?
http://safeshare.tv/w/ntjwDrwEwh
CPST - LOL, needs good news and so often for so many magically it seems just after a drubbing the good news occurs.
ReplyDeletePIR - Coming back to us....
ReplyDeleteAKS - Refuses to drop under $5, in defense of institutional ownership rules maybe?
ReplyDeleteWill begin producing super steel, instead of the same old crap steel?
DeleteASYS - I love the way this is worded, as if these furnaces are producing MW's of power which isn't the case at all, this is the amount of power they consume.
ReplyDelete"Solar Subsidiary of Amtech Systems, Wins Second Large Multi-System Order for its Next Generation (HD POCl3) Solar Diffusion System; 1,200MW Installed or Ordered "
TC- Wow, didn't see this one was under a buck.
ReplyDeleteChannel looks easy to trade.
DeleteDidn't manufacturing show weak results again?
ReplyDeleteI sold my PBMD at $2.30 this morning. Wish I had more.
ReplyDeleteGoing through the knife catching article in more detail this morning. Trying to figure out what would be the best way to build a portfolio of these
GOOG - Unlimited free cloud storage?
ReplyDeleteI really like GOOGL down here.
DeleteBought a position in EJ. They own 70% of LEJU which is one I traded last year. Their stake in LEJU is worth $1 Billion vs EJ's market cap of $830 Million. LEJU has an exclusive partnership with Zillow to bring Chinese buyers to the US real estate market, plus they have a partnership with Tencent, both of which validate LEJU in my opinion.
ReplyDeleteEJ paid $0.35 in dividends in the past year (equal to 6% yield).
I've been reading reports of month on month gains in real estate prices in China for the first time in a while, which could put a floor under these stocks.
Past couple of weeks have been pretty good to me. Now up over 10% YTD which feels a lot better after having been almost 15% at one point. My in-laws accounts are now up about 35% (outperformance most likely due to them having much smaller accounts to work with) after having been down about 10% in Feb. It's a good reminder to not give up and always try to figure out what's working in the market. I was pretty down on myself in February and just had to regroup. After rough patches its so easy to start thinking negative thoughts and beating yourself up.
ReplyDeleteMy strategy for the past couple months has been to be quicker to take gains which has worked, but also I think the market is acting a little better which makes it easier. Really hoping we get a nice little run here into the mid/late summer, at which point I plan to lighten up quite a bit. I'm thinking nervousness around the Fed Sept meeting and the Greek $50 Billion payment deadline in Sept could cause a hiccup in the market...well, at least in biotechs. I still am hoping IBB goes on a run here because I'd love to buy BISS in a couple of months for a Sept/Oct drop.
Sold some KORS at $48.6 and some IACI at $76.6. Those are still my largest positions. Added to EJ. I'm thinking a move to $8 is likely in the intermediate term. That was a pretty significant area of support last year.
ReplyDeleteGetting back to that falling knives report, I have been noticing a lot of stocks that tend to fall 50% or so, but fall short of the 60% drop designated to call them a falling knife. Some recent examples are KORS and MMYT.
ReplyDeleteHow can it be a safe railroad if a train speeding over 100mph in a 50mph section doesn't even get a speed warning buzzer to warn the engineer? Yeah, big deal the engineers are humans and thus prone to making exactly these types of mistakes as opposed to, for instance, making a wrong turn.
ReplyDeleteABAC - Holy crap, really boggles me on where these moves come from, at least until I hear or read the news at end of day hours later.
ReplyDeleteI dunno man, instead of airbags someone needs to invent the windbag to take it's place.
ReplyDeleteHey Mark - Do you know anything about APOG? I was researching ENOC some more and came across a writeup of APOG from the same author (see p 17 below):
ReplyDeletehttp://convertbonds.us/pub/HV/HV0218F.pdf
Sold out of KORS at $48.6 and moved it into FSLR and SPWR. 8Point3 IPO is due next week. This is the Yieldco that they JV'd on. I think it's a significant near term catalyst and both stocks have been beaten up recently. If SUNE's performance is any indicator then these two stocks could run quite a bit. We'll see.
ReplyDeleteTOF,
ReplyDeleteone of my favourtire reports is: http://www.tweedy.com/resources/library_docs/papers/WhatHasWorkedFundOct14Web.pdf
Supports the falling knife approach, but also gives other ideas for how to identify what knifes (small, cheap, stocks with insider buying) to catch.
new post
ReplyDelete