Non-farm payrolls Friday.
The numbers were in line, and reaction is quite positive. All indexes are up around +1%. I was planning to draft a bearish market take
last night, but ended up going to bed early.
So I saved myself time, effort, and egg on my face! Am I still bearish? I'm not bullish, but I also have no take as
to which side of the room is more crowded right now.
Massive short position on natty needs to get unwound. It's going much much much higher. I'm holding a decent sized position, entered yesterday at $2.3ish and added to it this morning at $2.38 and $2.58. Unfortunately can't chase it anymore.
ReplyDeleteNice reentry into UGAZ yesterday after stopping out earlier.
DeleteI think Nat Gas has a date with $3.40 in its future. Hopefully its a straight line to it as that would yield the best return for UGAZ. The size of the short position in Natty is so astronomical it could happen in a week.
DeleteGood numbers out of municipal insurer AGO and airplane leasor FLY. Just waiting on the concall transcript from AGo to see what they said about Portugal, but they authorized another $400 million buyback, so still working well towards creating shareholder value.
ReplyDeleteBXE doing a debt raise of $250 million due in 2020 to pay off banks debt and ease short term financing issues
ReplyDeleteSounds like it's going down the path of PAL?
DeleteMeant to post positions I opened yesterday, not that it really matters but I guess its nice to look back on for any rationale. I opened positions in BAC, GILD, NBG, NOK, TWTR, UGAZ, and ZNGA yesterday. I ended up selling GILD at $102.8 and ZNGA at a loss. I added to BAC at $16.34 and UGAZ at $2.38 and $2.58 today. I like all of these positions but might end up closing out of TWTR which is the most expensive of these positions. With the averaging up I think I'm up about 1.5% today, not as good as if I took full positions yesterday. My biggest position is BAC. I bought at $16.24 yesterday and added at $16.34 today after the report. I feel like it could get to $24 but I'm sure I'd bail after a 10% move. It's a cheap bank.
ReplyDeleteLast year I decided to buy BXE instead of BAC, that was a bad idea.
DeleteI bought AAPL and GILD yesterday and still long.
ReplyDeleteSite when comments get over 200 I generally can not access the counter will keep going 207- 232 but cannot read or post.
FWIW,
Have to go for most of the day good luck all.
I took advantage of the post-earnings selloff in Brazilian miner VALE to reopen a position @ 7.67.
ReplyDeleteTREX - Gotta hate plastic decking, it lasts so much longer than crappy pine wood.
ReplyDeleteFrom BTIG, who I think are pretty smart guys:
ReplyDelete"We are reiterating our Buy recommendation on AGO while
increasing our price target to $41 (from $40) based on 0.75x the
company’s ABV per share as of March 31. We continue to believe
AGO’s shares offer the best risk/reward in our coverage universe.
http://wwwca01.btig.com/MarketIntelligenceService/Financials/AGO1Q15pdf1bd6dc7deaeb5b11f890f5dc3fb87068_1.PDF
Did they have anything to say about Canada's new environmental regulatory movement on energy producers? I didn't hear anything about that until after the hammer fell, blindsided again.
DeleteAGO is the municipal bond insurer.
DeleteThe Alberta election was a surprise. Probably won't matter over time, but people are dumping energy stocks in case and you never know what a left-leaning government might do. But the investment houses up here are looking at this as a buying opportunity.
Dodge out with the fastest street legal car ever they claim - good for image, not a ton of profits I'm sure. Was out for lunch with a car friend yesterday and he was telling me about it and how he likes what Chrysler is doing and their price points:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/2016-dodge-viper-acr-fastest-153000155.html
NWLI out with earnings and very steady, they were up slightly and BV up as well.
ReplyDeleteNow trading at 53% of BV, P/E still single digits.
Definitely a very boring stock, but I still think my patience will be rewarded more than it has been in the past.
Good spot to buy now as at bottom of channel it has been in for last 2 years and near 52 week low.
DeleteRBS - All the issues are resolved, the coast is clear.
ReplyDeleteSold ugaz at 2.61
ReplyDeleteBought fosl at $79.7
Picked up some ENPH 10.23 ish near close. EYES tough day, missed AA and keep everything.
ReplyDeleteI added a bunch of FOSL today at $79.7. Trades at 11x TTM EPS, 13.8x CY EPS (lower based on currency movements). It trades at 13x FCF and has an earnings yield of 13%. They have a $900 Million buyback play (vs a $4 Billion market cap) and has a TTM ROE of 35%.
ReplyDeleteIt last traded at this PE in June 2010 (before a 100% return in the next 6 months) and July 2012 (before a 50% return in the next 6 months). I've been watching this for a while and really want to take advantage of what I think will be disappointing results from the Apple Watch. I really think that will be a total dud. The stocks that have gotten hit by this launch will rebound, in my opinion. And FOSL has a very reasonable valuation to support this investment.
I agree totally, the APP: watch isn't worth squat.
DeleteEYES - What was that?
ReplyDeleteFCAU - We have a gap up obligation that needs closing.
SSYS - Ever noticed how so many stocks get the holy crap beat out of them just before they take off on a spectacular ride? This looks like one of those setups.
ReplyDelete