Friday, May 8, 2015

5/8/15 New Post

Non-farm payrolls Friday.  The numbers were in line, and reaction is quite positive.  All indexes are up around +1%.  I was planning to draft a bearish market take last night, but ended up going to bed early.  So I saved myself time, effort, and egg on my face!  Am I still bearish?  I'm not bullish, but I also have no take as to which side of the room is more crowded right now.  

24 comments:

  1. Massive short position on natty needs to get unwound. It's going much much much higher. I'm holding a decent sized position, entered yesterday at $2.3ish and added to it this morning at $2.38 and $2.58. Unfortunately can't chase it anymore.

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    1. Nice reentry into UGAZ yesterday after stopping out earlier.

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    2. I think Nat Gas has a date with $3.40 in its future. Hopefully its a straight line to it as that would yield the best return for UGAZ. The size of the short position in Natty is so astronomical it could happen in a week.

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  2. Good numbers out of municipal insurer AGO and airplane leasor FLY. Just waiting on the concall transcript from AGo to see what they said about Portugal, but they authorized another $400 million buyback, so still working well towards creating shareholder value.

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  3. BXE doing a debt raise of $250 million due in 2020 to pay off banks debt and ease short term financing issues

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  4. Meant to post positions I opened yesterday, not that it really matters but I guess its nice to look back on for any rationale. I opened positions in BAC, GILD, NBG, NOK, TWTR, UGAZ, and ZNGA yesterday. I ended up selling GILD at $102.8 and ZNGA at a loss. I added to BAC at $16.34 and UGAZ at $2.38 and $2.58 today. I like all of these positions but might end up closing out of TWTR which is the most expensive of these positions. With the averaging up I think I'm up about 1.5% today, not as good as if I took full positions yesterday. My biggest position is BAC. I bought at $16.24 yesterday and added at $16.34 today after the report. I feel like it could get to $24 but I'm sure I'd bail after a 10% move. It's a cheap bank.

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    1. Last year I decided to buy BXE instead of BAC, that was a bad idea.

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  5. I bought AAPL and GILD yesterday and still long.

    Site when comments get over 200 I generally can not access the counter will keep going 207- 232 but cannot read or post.

    FWIW,

    Have to go for most of the day good luck all.

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  6. I took advantage of the post-earnings selloff in Brazilian miner VALE to reopen a position @ 7.67.

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  7. TREX - Gotta hate plastic decking, it lasts so much longer than crappy pine wood.

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  8. From BTIG, who I think are pretty smart guys:

    "We are reiterating our Buy recommendation on AGO while
    increasing our price target to $41 (from $40) based on 0.75x the
    company’s ABV per share as of March 31. We continue to believe
    AGO’s shares offer the best risk/reward in our coverage universe.

    http://wwwca01.btig.com/MarketIntelligenceService/Financials/AGO1Q15pdf1bd6dc7deaeb5b11f890f5dc3fb87068_1.PDF

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    1. Did they have anything to say about Canada's new environmental regulatory movement on energy producers? I didn't hear anything about that until after the hammer fell, blindsided again.

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    2. AGO is the municipal bond insurer.

      The Alberta election was a surprise. Probably won't matter over time, but people are dumping energy stocks in case and you never know what a left-leaning government might do. But the investment houses up here are looking at this as a buying opportunity.

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  9. Dodge out with the fastest street legal car ever they claim - good for image, not a ton of profits I'm sure. Was out for lunch with a car friend yesterday and he was telling me about it and how he likes what Chrysler is doing and their price points:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/2016-dodge-viper-acr-fastest-153000155.html

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  10. NWLI out with earnings and very steady, they were up slightly and BV up as well.

    Now trading at 53% of BV, P/E still single digits.

    Definitely a very boring stock, but I still think my patience will be rewarded more than it has been in the past.

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    1. Good spot to buy now as at bottom of channel it has been in for last 2 years and near 52 week low.

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  11. RBS - All the issues are resolved, the coast is clear.

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  12. Sold ugaz at 2.61

    Bought fosl at $79.7

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  13. Picked up some ENPH 10.23 ish near close. EYES tough day, missed AA and keep everything.

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  14. I added a bunch of FOSL today at $79.7. Trades at 11x TTM EPS, 13.8x CY EPS (lower based on currency movements). It trades at 13x FCF and has an earnings yield of 13%. They have a $900 Million buyback play (vs a $4 Billion market cap) and has a TTM ROE of 35%.

    It last traded at this PE in June 2010 (before a 100% return in the next 6 months) and July 2012 (before a 50% return in the next 6 months). I've been watching this for a while and really want to take advantage of what I think will be disappointing results from the Apple Watch. I really think that will be a total dud. The stocks that have gotten hit by this launch will rebound, in my opinion. And FOSL has a very reasonable valuation to support this investment.

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    1. I agree totally, the APP: watch isn't worth squat.

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  15. EYES - What was that?
    FCAU - We have a gap up obligation that needs closing.

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  16. SSYS - Ever noticed how so many stocks get the holy crap beat out of them just before they take off on a spectacular ride? This looks like one of those setups.

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