There's nothing esoteric about trading. Trading is a job, in some cases a business, like any other. Sports analogies work well, not only because of the competitive environment but because players drive to jobs, and teams are run as businesses. The daily grind is the same. The bread and butter of trading is consistent execution of the same (offensive or defensive) plays over and over again. The blocked shot. The fat pitch. The line drive. Three yards and a cloud of dust.
A Grexit looms on Monday. That makes it another manic Monday, one of the 52 that occur each year. Look over your playbook.
Monday may be a non-event. If it's an event, we don't know how markets will react. It's unnecessary to know what will happen if we prepare for the most likely scenarios. In general, Treasurys/Utilities +/- downside bets such as VXX or inverse funds work well should markets break lower. Cash is generally considered defensive, but it's really in the Special Teams category-> preserving capital as markets decline, transitioning to heavy artillery as traders retreat/capitulate.
Continuing the analogies.
ReplyDelete(a) Stops. A highly underrated skill. Throwing the ball away or kicking it out of bounds. The sacrifice bunt. I would even include fumble recovery, as the point is to stop a bad situation from becoming worse.
(b) The head fake. The nutmeg. Rarely is it possible to discern the ultimate direction of a strong move. Hence the observation that market moves are designed to inflict 'max pain' (the vast majority of options contracts expire worthless, for instance).
(c) The edge. Find one and stick to it. With the possible exception of the decathlete, no one excels at more than one or two skills.
First indications:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-28/sp-futures-open-down-40-points-eurusd-plunges-over-200-pips
Early indications in the futures market: DJIA -310 points (-1.7%), SPX -40 points (-1.8%), Treasurys +1.2%, gold +1%, Euro off >-1%.
DeleteIn the short term, like the next few days, the market reaction will depend on how fast traders were positioned versus the actual resolution. I read many people were expecting a last minute deal, but what people say and what they actually do are 2 different things. I'd expect some initial selling tomorrow and volatility until at least after the Greek referendum.
ReplyDeleteBut it the longer term, like a few months, I still think Greece is a non-event and less important than US job numbers, home sales, PMI numbers, etc.
I don't plan on changing my strategy either way with what happens with Greece. But I'll sure be happy to not have to continue to read about it every single day!
(a) DJIA futures have moderated to -163 points (-0.93%). SPX -19 (-0.92%).
ReplyDelete(b) Gold +0.46%.
(c) TLT (Long Bond) +2%.
(d) Euro -0.39%, $USD +0.12%.
(e) EEM (Emerging Markets) off -1%. Asian markets dressed in red, with Shanglower -3.34%, Hang lower -1.78%.
(f) European bourses taking the brunt of the selling, majors off by -3%.
Markets in Greece are closed. Bids on GREK currently printing -16% @ 10.0x (compared to Friday's close of 11.78). I think we'll see opportunities in Europe. Trading on several Italian banks were suspended, with reports of opening bids @ -8% to -10%.
My early take (and of course my takes are fluid- they can and will change on a dime): traders will buy the dip today and tomorrow ahead of end-of-quarter window dressing + July first rebound. Thus the correct move will be to sell into any bounce.
DeleteI keep hearing that the Eurozone is better prepared to weather a financial crisis today (when compared to 2012). I'm not so sure. With bond yields in some cases declining into negative territory earlier this year, what tactics are left for central banks to deploy?
DeleteThis is probably more relevant than Greece
ReplyDeletehttp://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/06/29/business/dealbook/puerto-ricos-governor-says-islands-debts-are-not-payable.html?_r=0&referrer=
Going to hurt my holding in AGO this morning. But when I actually go through their financials supplements where they detail out their Puerto Rico exposure, it seems very manageable. Plus, even if Puerto Rico can figure out a way to declare bankruptcy, they would be looking for a cut their debt, not for forgiveness on the entire amount, similar to the Detroit sitution.
DeleteLowering exposure.
ReplyDelete(a) CHK (Chesapeake) off pre-market @ 11.23 for a minor gain. As noted earlier, NGas often trades 'contra' to the broader market.
(b) Brazilian miner VALE off pre-market @ 6.14, a breakeven trade.
That moves the portfolio to 74% cash (26% long). However, 3.5% is in bonds (via RYGBX), which is negatively correlated with the markets this morning. And 3.75% in EXAS (Exact Sciences), which I expect will trade independently of the broad indexes.
It's an even call-> adding long exposure by buying Europe, or lowering exposure by closing remaining positions. The decision will depend on opening/intraday sentiment.
According to Ryan Detrick on Twitter, big gap downs have been good buys the last couple years:
Deletehttps://twitter.com/ryandetrick
AGO was down 20% at 1 point in the pre-market. Now down 8%. I don't have access to pre-market trades in Canada, but would be nice sometimes.
ReplyDeleteThere's a gap up from $23.50, that would show real concern perhaps.
DeleteWhat was it they say about markets and uncertainty?
ReplyDeleteVE - Remember this one, a water company? Trying to recall who bought it....
ReplyDeleteCBI - How exceptional is this one actually, what are the chances the FEB gap up closes? My broker has a $38 price target.
ACM - Chart really stinks, huh?
DeleteAGO- OK, what's the deal? Down 10% now.
ReplyDeletePuerto Rico governor in the times saying debt unpayable (TOF posted the link above).
DeleteBTIG research saying stock now uninvestable until this gets cleared up and will trade in =/- 15% range the next year.
I'm not so sure. One of the ratings agencies said AGO would maintain AA rating, even with Puerto Rico default.
I think this will turn out to be a buying opportunity as these guys have done a good job in manageing Detroit, Stockton, ALabama, etc. without taking a big hit.
Do you have a position in it?
DeleteYes, I've got quite a large one that I bought in 2012 at $14.75. I think the stock will get over $40 and even $50 if we get a good market for financials.
Delete(a) Closing CAF (China 'A' Shares) @ 31.75, a slight discount to my opening basis of 31.82.
ReplyDelete(b) Closing FXI (China 'H' Shares) @ 45.65 for a -1.4% loss.
As we approach the 1030 est trading window for RYWVY (Rydex 2x Emerging markets), it's clear that investors are buying the dip. I'll be 'trading the plan' and closing the position.
ReplyDeleteRYGBX (Rydex 1.2x Government Long Bond) and RYVIX (Rydex Energy Services) will need to wait for end-of-day pricing-> based on current bids, -GBX +1.5% and -VIX -0.7%.
CP - VE changed to VEOEY. It's been a home run.
ReplyDeleteAGO - I'm reminded so many times how stocks need to fill gaps. It's so ridiculous logically, but I've found its usually something that works.
Thx TOF, your memory is much better than mine.
DeleteFRom Mark Palmer at BTIG:
ReplyDeleteAssured Guaranty Ltd.
Downgrading to Neutral (from Buy) as Puerto Rico
Governor to Seek Deferral of Debt Payments
We are downgrading Assured Guaranty (AGO) to Neutral (from Buy)
and removing our price target after Puerto Rico Governor Alejandro
Garcia Padilla in an interview with The New York Times published last night
stated that the Commonwealth would not be able to pay its debts,
claiming that "there is no other option." The governor had previously
rejected the possibility of a default, noting in his State of the
Commonwealth address on April 30 that much of Puerto Rico's debt was
held by locals. A spokesperson for the governor stated that he would seek
to defer payments on the Commonwealth's debt while negotiating with
creditors.
AGO has $6.04bn of gross insured exposure and $4.94bn of net
insured exposure to Puerto Rico's debt. While it is not yet clear what
impact Governor Garcia Padilla's new tack will ultimately have on the
bond insurers insofar as the Commonwealth's constitution clearly
states that debt payments must be made before other obligations are
addressed, we believe the uncertainty created by the reversal of his
stance makes the bond insurer stocks unbuyable until clarity around
the situation develops and the magnitude of the losses the insurers
stand to realize becomes more apparent.
Rep. Jennifer Gonzalez of the New Progressive Party, the party in
opposition to Governor Garcia Padilla's Popular Democratic Party,
noted to the Times that a move to miss debt payments would require
a referendum and an amendment to Puerto Rico's constitution. We
believe it is quite possible that the governor will propose such actions
when he meets with the Commonwealth's legislature later today prior
to a televised address.
Valuation: Our Neutral rating on AGO is based on our view that the
increased risk premium associated with the situation in Puerto Rico
likely will cause the stock to trade within +/- 15% from current levels
over the next 12 months. BTIG does not assign price targets to
Neutral-rated stocks.
We note that Standard and Poor's has stated that AGO has sufficient
capital cushion to withstand a stressed scenario with regard to Puerto
Rico's debt while retaining its current credit ratings of 'AA.' However,
we also believe that the governor's change in approach will delay
indefinitely the company's intention to ask its regulators to allow their
operating subsidiaries to make a special dividend to its holding
company, which would have facilitated capital return.
It is also unclear what impact, if any, the governor's remarks will have
on negotiations between the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority
(PREPA) and creditors including AGO whether they will have any
bearing on whether the utility will make the $416mm debt-service
payment due July 1.
Hmm... Someone could buy this debt for a fraction of the original value, wonder who that will be?
DeleteWOR seems to be getting upgrades, this worries me. I think though, the fundamentals should be positive.
ReplyDeleteAGO - The timing of the new admission is astoundingly superb, blows me away.
ReplyDeleteFBP - Oh lordy, another casualty
ReplyDeleteIMH - A fascinating chart, wonder what the message is?
ReplyDeletePCP - Notice this one broke out to the downside recently and has been weak for quite some time now. A smoke signal?
ReplyDeleteBXE - At what point should we downgrade this one to sell, after an 80 or 90% decline or just ride it to zero and see if it happens? Obviously with all the rapid global growth due to the perpetual extension of global emergency financial intervention, energy consumption should be in steep incline.
ReplyDeleteBWEN - Wonder why insiders have been selling their position, if they thought wind energy had a girght future don't you think they wold hold onto their stock as opposed to selling?
ReplyDeleteIACI did the obligatory gap close. I think it's a buy here.
ReplyDeleteBut for whatever reason I'm not buying it here...hmmm...I'd rather add to Z
DeleteZ - Institutional leadership seems firm, and insiders aren't showing indications of a desire to cash out in advance of some disappointing event that's typically announced post-having your ass handed to you.
DeleteRUSL - Did Putin do something over the weekend to deserve such a drubbing? Russia has very low debt I've read, or does it? Most of what I read seems to be misleading, incomplete or incorrect, at best.
ReplyDeleteWhen fear spreads it seems to hit Russia worst.
DeleteThe misleading stuff is always precisely timed, though.
DeleteI almost sold my Z position twice today when it was in the green or near breakeven so I could trade it but I am concerned I'd be missing out on a bigger move higher over time and would lose the conviction needed to hold through that kind of a move. But I know psychologically that this is what is going to get me into trouble because they could drag it down to $70 for all I know.
ReplyDeleteFunny how that works. I'll keep holding though. I've been wanting to buy and hold this sucker for a long time and at 7x sales it seems like this is a pretty reasonable time to start buying. I think if they wanted to chase profits now they could cut advertising from 50% of sales to 10% and be making $3 EPS right now. Instead, they're doing the smart thing and focusing on dominating their space over the longer term. This is what keeps the short interest so high and keeps a lot of people that focus on value like myself away.
Millenials can't afford homes?
ReplyDelete"Here Are Cities Where Millennials Can Actually Afford to Buy a Home at TheStreet:"
NAT - Wonder if anyone has been selling this one, looks like it has no top and could be one of those that keeps on going perpetually. Well, hydrocarbon storage and transportation is on fire but maybe not for much longer if the fundamentals don't support it, whatever that means.
ReplyDeleteSince none of us are in it anymore you know the answer to that one!
DeleteAGO - Really glad I finally learned not to chase these up, it was getting to be a really expensive habit.
ReplyDeleteOf my 37 stocks, only ones in the green are NWLI and SORL - odd combination.
ReplyDeleteI think this pullback is buyable, but just not sure if it should be bought today or in a week or two. I think Greece resolution either way leads to a rally.
Yep. I agree. The one two punch of Greece - Puerto Rico should give us a 5-7% drop top to bottom. This isn't the big one though.
DeleteIt might even be capped at a drop to the 200 DMA
DeleteDude (BB), I thought you were looking forward to being away from the markets for a few days ;)
DeleteEYES - Nice tall bar at the recent high, smart money taking gains.
ReplyDeleteGEVO - At least this one isn't insulting me today.
ReplyDeleteTrump making a run for the presidency on the platform that “immigrants from Mexico are rapists and bring drugs and crime”. Is this guy for real?
ReplyDeleteAmazing what you can get away with if you have money
DeleteI like him! I'll take a non-politician over a politician any day!
DeleteWhat's wrong with bringing back jobs to America?
How is America ever going to be great again doing what we are doing?
Real change is our only hope and not sure if he can deliver but would like to let him try.
On welfare, here is you new job, take or your checks stop.
NBC to Trump: You're fired
DeleteNBC (CMCSA -1.3%) is ending its business relationship with presidential candidate Donald Trump over "recent derogatory statements" about immigrants, it said in a statement.The move means that the annual Miss USA and Miss Universe pageants (a JV between NBC and Trump) won't air on the network.Trump also won't participate in The Apprentice reality competition show.Univision had previously indicated that it wouldn't be broadcasting the pageants in the wake of Trump's remarks.Updated 3:59 p.m.: Trump says NBC's "contract-violating closure of Miss Universe/Miss USA will be determined in court. Furthermore, they will stand behind lying Brian Williams, but won’t stand behind people that tell it like it is, as unpleasant as that may be.”
I'm split mostly b/c I no longer feel like I really understand the direction we're headed and don't see how my freedoms aren't being trampled. Trump is a pretty smart cookie and thrifty as hell, just have a close look at his toupee made of dryer lint or is it rabbit hair?
DeleteI thought that was "Mexican Hooker Hair" lost crossing the border and collected by Border Guards.
DeleteGlobal assets taking the elevator down, with brutal selling across the board.
ReplyDelete(a) RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) closed the 1030 window down -2.17%. I consider that an 'attractive' exit, and closing the position quickly was the right decision.
(b) DJIA currently off -297 points, and it's now likely that the morning bounce was a bull trap.
(c) OIH (oil services) relatively unscathed @ 34.80 (-1.2%) despite a -2% decline in crude.
(d) A -1% selloff in miners belies the weak rally in gold.
(e) TLT (long bond) is today's standout performer, up +2.6%.
Both RYGBX and RYVIX will be closed end of day, for what should be a +3% gain and a -1.2% loss, respectively.
The total portfolio will take a very manageable hit today of -0.27% (about 1/6 of the damage inflicted on the Dow), so I'm pleased. Is it luck? I will agree that luck plays a significant role in trading, but I'd like to think that strategy (proper sizing, positions opened on weakness, losses taken quickly, and the inclusion of positions which trade 'contra' to the broad indexes) played an even greater role today.
Looks like they want to lock limit down SP futures.
ReplyDeleteThink its still "50" points
DeleteDoubt the pain is over. The Offer from Europe expires on 30 Jun. A Greek vote is meaningless as no offer will exist.
DeleteGoing to be an interesting week for sure. Wonder if they'll be able to get polls done before Sunday? They would drive Euro stock returns.
DeleteBidding ENPH @ 7.64 for a whoosh lower into the close.
ReplyDeleteEYES @ 13.65
ReplyDeleteCBI - Nice call by JPM on this one, notice the timing.
ReplyDelete"Trump is a pretty smart cookie and thrifty as hell, just have a close look at his toupee made of dryer lint or is it rabbit hair?"
ReplyDeleteHilarious. Quote of the day
I got a good laugh from that one.
DeleteIt's an Mexican hooker's scalp he's wearing?
DeleteBTU had a good day, wish I could say the same. At least I sold FCAU before the triple whammy of Chinese problems, Greek and Puerto Rican default.
ReplyDeleteI guess you guys didn't see it coming, or you were out already.
Like I said before.. good luck, banks.
ReplyDeleteNice that Ryan Detrick back tweeting. Today showing VIX futures in backwardation, like now, has led to a higher market 100% of the time for period s of 10 days or more (78% for 5 days) for the last 3 years.
ReplyDeleteSo, either we are very close to the bottom of this pullback, or something has changed in this market and this no longer works.
Nice bounce in US indexes this morning. Tepid bounce in Europe.
ReplyDeleteI thought long and hard about playing a bounce going into yesterday's close, and opted against taking any positions:
(a) Trapped bulls are likely to place a ceiling on any rallies.
(b) The high volumes suggest institutional participation.
There's an oft-repeated mantra on Wall Street that 'the Market neither knows nor cares what you think,' the point being that strong opinions re target prices and market direction are invariably tested or punished. My own take is that the Market understands human nature and knows exactly what we think, and possesses itself a diabolical nature.
Why weren't we in YANG for the drop?
DeleteI suspect we piddle back the mornings gains. Placing bids on S2 @ 7.46 for ENPH.
ReplyDeleteSWC is getting pretty beat up, maybe an opportunity for this palladium play? Never know what China's up to considering they're still colonializing Mongolia I'd bet.
ReplyDeleteCENX - Still moving down quickly, does the fast-track trade agreement further enable importing foreign steel and aluminum?
ReplyDeleteI'm so tired from trying to read everything all night and not finding much of use, I can barely think today.
Sometimes that's a mistake right?
DeleteI do it a lot and it gets old b/c there just aren't many decent info sources I've found. Mostly I learn of stuff after the fact, such as yesterday's supreme court ruling on mercury emissions.... This leads to constantly being blindsided.
DeleteMillenials don't use credit cards, and are adverse to taking on debt.
ReplyDeleteHEDJ - This I believe, is the currency hedged Europe ETF, right? Pretty sure.
ReplyDelete"Nice that Ryan Detrick back tweeting. Today showing VIX futures in backwardation, like now, has led to a higher market 100% of the time for period s of 10 days or more (78% for 5 days) for the last 3 years.
ReplyDeleteSo, either we are very close to the bottom of this pullback, or something has changed in this market and this no longer works. "
BB - Yeah I still think we haven't seen the bottom or the top in the markets. I suspect we can see a washout to the 1900's again, then a move to new highs. The lower this goes now the less likely we get the October drop I was hoping for in biotechs. My thinking is in the bigger picture I think we are seeing a long period of consolidation from the past 4 years of gains and this consolidation period could last 18 months or so (started about 7 months ago). As long as the economy remains ok then I bet it consolidates sideways within a 10 to 15% swing top to bottom. I think the under supply in the housing market should provide support for the economy for a long time.
It just seems to me that there is plenty of slack in the economy with the jobs market and the housing supply vs demand to keep things steadily moving up for a long time. Valuations got pretty stretched in some areas so without a recession the most likely correction will occur over time. Just like with the small caps last year (and this year), with many of the momentum stocks starting spring to summer of last year (Z is one of them), recently with transportation stocks and most likely healthcare/biotech stocks. It seems like the market prefers consolidation / rotations instead of massive corrections as a way to get through overvaluation.
DeleteIt is a nice market that works this way, time to get out without having to endure large pullbacks. IWM went through the same thing with a very strong 2013, followed by a flat 2014, probably breaking out in 2015.
DeleteI don't think IBB can consolidate into it's valuation though.
I put together a big spreadsheet last week that detailed all of the p/e's for the holdings of IBB and went through and pulled out all of the one time charges impacting earnings. i did this because iShares doesn't include companies with negative earnings in the calculation of the p/e which is nuts. anyway, the overall p/e was like 27 excluding one time charges, which was higher than the p/e of small caps last year near their peak (although it was way below nasdaq stocks in 2000). unfortunately i can't seem to find that spreadsheet. the revenue growth rate of many of the larger holdings was really high, though, and most likely the valuation will come down through a sloppy sideways consolidation. so my guess is we see a 15-20% correction at some time, but not a 30 to 50% drop unless it goes up another 10% or so.
DeleteHTZ - Just keeps on truckin; down the rat hole.
ReplyDeleteAnd, why can't we marry a close relative, is that only reserved for royalty?
AGO now in the green for the day. UBS out with support for the stock and a $31 target. Almost added this morning, but thought we might get another push further down to scare out remaining weak holders.
ReplyDeleteI was close to buying it under $23 this morning for a trade...oh well
DeleteThe thing that keeps me from getting scared away from the market is it just seems like people continue to be skeptical / scared. Given how long we have been in a bull market its surprising we haven't seen sentiment get really bullish. Here's another example of the skepticism:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/102798642?__source=yahoo|finance|headline|headline|story&par=yahoo&doc=102798642
It's amazing how many of these show people getting cautious when we are so close to highs. People must really have gotten scarred in the 2008 crash. Another one - http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
DeleteThe thing I've been thinking about lately is how we will recognize the right time to go from being bullish on dips to being cautious. I don't think they're are any worries until we see either a pickup in inflation above say 3%, interest rates much higher, or large excesses in the economy and I am also of the opinion that it is years away.
BB - Not sure if you saw my post about my friend's boss having places in La Jolla for rent for your upcoming trip. Let me know if you're interested.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I saw it thanks, but I think for the time of year we are going, we will be able to get a place on the ocean for a reasonable price, so we'll probably do that.
Deleteok gotcha. did you guys decide where you are going to stay?
DeleteI am thinking either the Carlsbad/Oceanside area or the north end of Pacific Beach. I was leaning towards Carlsbad/Oceanside for quieter with a nice boardwalk, better access to hiking and making a day trip to LA, but when I look at the average temperatures that time of year, Pacific Beach seems quite a bit milder, with especially warmer evenings. Lots of availability of places to stay though. I'm sure La Jolla is nice, but prices are higher and we are not into highend shopping and galleries, etc. so probably not worth paying up for that.
DeleteWhat do you think? Am I missing anything?
Oceanside is a bit ghetto. Carlsbad downtown / beaches are nice and probably fit what you're looking for best
DeleteMaybe the new free trade agreement is not good for energy and materials like aluminum and steel.
ReplyDeleteRGSE - Wow, look at it go....
ReplyDeleteBACML - Cutting aluminum estimates as a result of oversupply. Last year there wasn't enough, the world has flipped upside down since.
ReplyDeletePIR - Gonna fail here or finally lift?
ReplyDeleteGolfing with my bad investor friend and he's no longer interested in buying gold, but still holding a lot of i and won't sell.
ReplyDeleteInstead he is into the Principal Protected Notes, so I was getting worried because he's getting into the stock market. But I went and looked at these things and they are far more a GIC than an equity investment. The one pays a return of between 0.1% if the market goes down and a maximum of 4.5% if the market goes up. So, he's got more upside than a 2% GIC, but really not much more and nothing at risk.
So another sign the stock market is safe. He's a 90% guy - he jumps on trend when they are about 90% through, then gets enough profit to feel good about things, then loses a whack of money. If he was really into stocks, I'd be more concerned.
That's so funny bro.
DeleteWhatever tell works for you I say
DeleteAGO
ReplyDeletePuerto Rico to Make July Payment of $645.2M on GO Debt - Reuters
Thanks. Smart, they are going to get a lot of pushback on going bankrupt, so no point in causing a big disruption before starting.
DeleteNot sure where this goes, but will probably be another long drawn out case. They've got the Detroit Judge involved now, so that may speed things up. My guess is we end up with a refinancing/extension of the debt with the Feds kicking in some money (contrary to what they are saying now).
AGO probably takes a few hundred million hit to equity, but not sure they have already written, so could be less.
In the long run, AGO will be fine and the stock will bounce and this pretty much cleans up the last of the trouble spots. There is still Illinois, which is a really bad one too, but AGO does not have a lot of exposure there.
There's still risk this goes off the rails, but AGO is pretty good at managing these situations.
ANR- So much for yesterdays good news.
ReplyDeleteAustralia took down the price of iron ore this morning too, so demand for steel input like coal must be under pressure.
DeleteSchnitzel steel got really clobbered on earnings. met coal seems weak maybe? TCK is in firm downtrend maybe we can get back in under that $6 price we sold at years ago.... China might be keeping their materials plants going.by using gassified Mongolian coal shipped via pipe?
Delete(a) As it turns out, playing a bounce in Emerging Markets would have paid off. EEM off earlier highs, but still >+1% for the day.
ReplyDelete(b) US indexes, not so much. The DJIA is up a whopping +0.15%.
(c) I like FCX (Freeport McMoran) here @ 18.55, and opening a small position (notwithstanding my current bearish stance on miners).
(d) Opening a small position in VXX @ 20.40 as a hedge.
I like the volatile backdrop to the markets right now.
ENPH- Moving up to 7.51.
ReplyDeleteOntario Teachers bought more assets, this time oil and gas...
ReplyDelete"Cenovus Energy Inc sells oil and gas royalty business to Ontario Teachers"
Continuing to trade around a core position in EXAS (Exact Sciences). Partial sales @ 29.85.
ReplyDeleteSo global governments are just admitting they can't carry their debt burden seems like, how many more will there be this year?
ReplyDeleteEWS - Even something happened to Singapore looks like, guess I'll have to go hunt up the story b/c nobody I know seems to read or watch TV, just pump..
TSLA - Short squeeze coming? CS like it.
ReplyDeleteKNDI - Subsidy play of the day: "Kandi Technologies Group Announces JV's Receipt of Approximately US$44.3 Million Subsidy From Chinese National Government GlobeNewswire"
Has it got legs? Electric commute vehicles...?
A very nice article and comments on CAR T for blood cancers. I was looking at JUNO yesterday and did not buy, too bad. Very nice comments too for the most part in a very complicated field.
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/2794185-cellectis-is-late-to-the-car-t-cell-race-but-could-finish-first
Hmm, gave up a bunch of that gain, MS downgraded it so they could get in maybe?
DeletePBMD has exposure to Car T as well which got me interested.
DeleteDoes our guy who sports hooker hair, drive an EV?
ReplyDeleteWestern Canada, what a gas. Interesting we see a concise summary only AFTER the collapse is 90% done, or more of the same to come?
ReplyDelete:
https://rbnenergy.com/montney-s-python-western-canadian-shale-gas-is-being-squeezed
Interesting stats on price to sales for Zillow:
ReplyDeleteAverage Peak Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) P/S for Z and TRLA (i.e., the price to sales ratio at the highs of each year) over the past 4 years: 29.87.
Trailing twelve months P/S, assuming both of the companies were merged for entire past 12 months (merger went thru in Feb): 9.46.
Another interesting thing I noticed on Z:
Deletefrom high to low in 2012: Down 50.9%
from high to low past year: Down 50.9%
WYNN - We sure can whip prices around.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Do you have a position in Z yet? You know I like it as well.
ReplyDeleteyeah i'm long. i really like it here.
DeleteFoolishly I'm sure, still interested in VA/YRCW.
ReplyDeletei keep tabs on them too.
Delete"Where Oakmark’s Nygren, FPA’s Romick Are Finding Value"
ReplyDeletehttp://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=701938
(a) Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras backs down, and is now prepared to accept most of the bailout terms. We'll find out whether 'most' is enough.
ReplyDelete(b) DJIA futures up +160 points on the news. That's not good for my VXX position, which I'm closing pre-market @ 19.23 for a -5.7% loss. No worries- the position was small-> call it a red chip on '12,' a craps bet with 30:1 odds. It might have paid off well had Tsipras remained defiant.
(c) Interesting development in bonds. My best trade the past few days was a bet on the long bond, which resulted in a one-day +3.5% gain on RYGBX. The trade corresponded to a spike in TLT from 115.23 (Friday) to 118.21 (Monday). Tuesday's high was 118.70. TLT is bidding this morning @ 115.71.
(d) Miners down, gold down.
(e) Another interesting sector: after rallying +5% on Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite dropped -5% last night.
If you're at the plate, the two pitches will be the long bond (TLT) and China (CAF).
Portugal backed down too, by saying they would make payment.
DeleteI can tell you one thing, low rates have put 2nd homes on empty lots around here.
ReplyDeleteENPH- Todays magic number is 7.29!
ReplyDeleteTwo additional pitches:
ReplyDelete(a) FXE (Euro) selling off hard -0.8% to 108.60. I'll be interested should it decline to a 107-handle.
(b) EXAS (Exact Sciences) off -2.8% to 28.93. I swung at that one, and reopened the partial position closed yesterday at 29.85.
Senitmentrader showing short position at all-time high $-wise. Not sure %-wise.
ReplyDeleteBut fuel for a bul run if things get going.
Buy and hold has really sucked this year for me so far, I need to buy dips and sell rips instead. I guess valuations are just too high.
ReplyDeleteSomeone mentioned GOOG needs to buy DISH, to obtain bandwidth b/c WIFI isn't going to cut it. I guess the alternative would be to go with a new format, not sure what that would be but something like that might sell the next generation of phones? I'm probably dreaming part of this up.
DISH - What do you guys think of this idea?
Deletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/mario-gabelli-leon-cooperman-explain-162211729.html
Interesting. That whole space is in turmoil because it depends on how customers prefer to view content. Seems to me that the content providers like DIS and SNE will be the bigger winners.
DeleteLetting FCX go at 18.63 for a minor gain.
ReplyDeleteInvestors appear unfazed and ready to bid prices higher. I don't agree. I think there's much to be concerned about, high valuations first and foremost.
AGO bouncing this morning, seeming to time with a positive Seeking Alpha article - http://seekingalpha.com/article/3293785-puerto-rican-sell-off-brings-forward-tremendous-opportunity-for-assured-guaranty
ReplyDeleteGuess sub-$23 was the buy point, now almost back to $25.
WMT just keeps trending down and now at 2 year lows.
ReplyDeletePretty cheap stock at sub-15 p/e, considering it's consistent 20%+ ROE, and history of increasing earnings and dividends.
Not sure why it is trending down like this, but would have to think a bounce back to $80 should be easily doable on some decent news.
Yeah its crazy how low its going.
DeleteMaybe $69.69 - Whatcha think?
DeleteGood video on real estate dynamics from one of the people on Shark Tank...its from last year so a bit old but she was right about the housing market continuing to improve.
ReplyDeleteAVAV - KA-POW! I totally ignore drones too, GOOG/Z/AMZN might want to use them. Let's not discuss the subject, EVER, okay?
ReplyDeleteYELP - A sell, per Zacks - Remember when this was the hot one poised to zoom? Guess not?
Found the spreadsheet on IBB holdings. Several companies had one time charges that I had to back out and 3 of the top 4 holdings had tax rates of 8, 13, and 17%. These companies generated $22 Billion in TTM earnings and account for 24% of the holdings of IBB. They make up the bulk of the earnings of the entire sector. I tried to "normalize" those earnings by using a 27% tax rate to arrive at an adjusted p/e for the entire ETF (I also included money losing companies which IBB excludes in their calc of p/e). The resulting TTM p/e is 27.4. Earnings actually grow over 100% last year due to GILD growing earnings from $4.6 Billion to $14.2 Billion. Obviously this isn't sustainable but it does make the valuation of IBB less extreme going forward. It makes me less concerned about a biotech implosion, but if IBB can make it to $400 or so I would be looking to short it again.
ReplyDeleteWould it be sustainable if the AHC roles were to continue swelling at a rapid clip, or at least extended for perhaps a long period?
Delete$GBX "our stock isn't seeming to trade on backlog, I personally don't get it"
ReplyDeleteLNG - Still sinking, as if market doesn't anticipate exporting natty will be competitive. Or perhaps is anticipating more capital will be needed to get it going.
ReplyDeletePerhaps Japan won't need natty, when they relight their nooocular reactors?
MSFT - So why doesn't my browser show in history, the site I visited today? Crap S/W, that's why. Also, pages typically download with no indication anything's happening, you have to look outside the browser to monitor data transmission despite the browser has a little wheel that spins it's only used sometimes. CRAP S/W
ReplyDeleteCBI - Heading back down again, I'm beginning to think my broker is correct on this one.
ReplyDeletePSEC - Come on man, you can drop like a rock too, so I can add, please?
JONE - Holy crap, what fun it must be to own a bonafied turd.
ReplyDeleteTOF, if I just do quotes on the top 10 IBB holdings which are 57.6% of the holdings
ReplyDeletehttps://finance.yahoo.com/quotes/GILD,AMGN,BIIB,REGN,CELG,MYL,VRTX,ILMN,ALXN,BMRN/view/v4
I get:
average p/s: 16.3
average p/e: 54.5 (8 profitable)
average fwd p/e: 25.1 (9 profitable)
These are Yahoo numbers, so may be some small problems, but quite higher than yours. I just did a simple average to be quick. What I should have done was do a weighted average based on their weight in the ETF, but, again according to Yahoo, the weighting for GILD is double that of VRTX, but the market cap is 5.7 times. When you did your spreadsheet, did you calculate based on ETF weightings or market cap weightings? If you did it on market cap, I think you understate the ratio's for the ETF by giving higher weight to the cheaper stocks like GILD than they get in the IBB ETF.
BB - I went through every single one of the financials of the top 33 holdings which accounted for 82.25% of the holdings, pulled in the TTM earnings, then adjusted out from every quarter's earnings any one time expenses / income / abnormal tax rates, then weighted those earnings. The weighting factor dropped the adjusted TTM p/e I calculated by removing one time expenses / income / abnormal tax rates from 37.56 to 27.44.
DeleteIf you want I can email you my spreadsheet. Wouldn't hurt to have another set of eyes on it in case I screwed something up.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteAlthough late to the party, I think this is still a good sector to trade, just do forget to leave the party.
Deletejust do "not" forget to leave the party
DeleteSoc Gen up grades NBL today to buy and it sells off 3%.
ReplyDeleteJust like JPM's upgrade of CBI seems to have marked a peak
DeleteOil and gas stocks having a rough day regardless.
DeleteI think there's a good chance the world will goes into deflation.
What will be used to make EV's to replace gasoline vehicles, paper mache?
DeleteSRS has been kickin' ass all year.
DeleteCAR T's weakens today, PBMD put on list to watch, thanks TOF.
ReplyDeleteTraded some early today WYNN and BIIB today both sold 4.2% and 1.2% respectively.
ENOC doing well FSLR not so well, seems the whole group sold off the yieldco smoke.
Bought some MU at 19 on open, beat up may exit before close.
Holding RJA BXMT AAPL FSLR ENOC MU
The market in music
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdHnGyU1yJQ
dumped MU, not working
DeleteFCAU - Sounds like the EV offering is rather half-hearted, considering Marchionne doesn't seem to speak well of it.
ReplyDeleteUS indexes deceptively (in my opinion) higher: DJIA +0.7%, SPX +0.6%.
ReplyDeleteUnderneath/apart from the major indexes:
(a) IWM (small caps) barely above yesterday's close.
(b) EEM (Emerging Markets) -0.2%. Even worse, EWZ (Brazil) -1.4%, PBR (Petrobras) -5%, and VALE -2.5%.
(c) Commodities! USO (Crude) -4%. XLE (Energy) -1.6%. OIH (oil services) -3.62%. NGas -
(d) Miners (GDX) -2.5% and on its way to retest the 52-week low.
(e) NGAs -1.6%, CHK (Chesapeake) -5.8% to set a new 52-week low.
(f)TLT -1.1% @ 115.75. TIPS -0.32%.
(g) VGK (Europe) barely green +0.25%.
Apart from US large-caps, there's really no place to hide.
KTEC - One way to avoid paying $15/hr for store clerks and burger flippers would be to automate, no?
ReplyDeleteMy advice? Sell anything that's not bolted down, and find a good seat on the sidelines. I expect to get slapped (hard!) by the market for that opinion, but that's where I stand.
ReplyDelete$US looks like it wants to break out.
DeleteThat's the only asset worth holding right now.
DeleteAGM - What are the chances this one fails support here?
ReplyDeleteGM - Looks like insiders sold about 98% of their position, that ought to indicate nothing but upside potential.
ReplyDeleteTomorrow morning first thing, I'm taking a page from Pete Roses' playbook and slathering my hair thick with Grecian Formula 16.
NAV - There's our rocking economy, bet these guys are hiring like mad?
ReplyDeleteThe DJIA ended the day up +138 points (+0.8%). If this was Ann Arbor in 1988, it would be the only number displayed above a certain downtown bank I would drive past on the way home (and the only number the average investor would notice).
ReplyDeleteA quick scan of closing prices of selected Rydex funds paints a different picture:
RYRSX (2x Russell 2000) +0.44% (positive, but note that it's a leveraged fund)
RYWVX (2x Emerging Markets) -1.59%
RYMBX (Commodities) -1.84%
RYPMX (Precious Metals) -2.81%
RYEIX (Energy) -2.1%
RYVIX (Oil Services) -3.28%
RYGBX (1.2x Long Bond) -1.83%
Murky at best.
I'm waiting for $13 silver, not sure what I'd do with it...
DeleteSCHN - Shnitzel steel, WTF man...
ReplyDeleteHaving fun yet?
DeleteSchnitzer Steel (SCHN +17.3%) bounces back big from yesterday's near-10% drubbing, as the stock price pushes back over the $20 mark for the first time since January.SCHN fell yesterday in reaction to mostly disappointing FQ3 results which were hurt by weak ferrous selling prices.BofA/Merrill upgraded shares to Buy from Underperform with a $21 price target this morning, believing FQ3 results were a trough and noting steadier scrap prices, cost savings and valuation.
This type of action is bizarre, IMO, just did not happen in the specialist era.
DeleteI used to have a managed account, it trended down mostly.
DeleteOT: Irish humor
ReplyDeleteIrish Gas Station
Taking a wee break from the golf course, Rory Mcllroy drives his new
Mercedes into an Irish gas station.
An attendant greets him in a typical Irish manner, unaware who the
golf pro is...
"Top o’ the mornin to ya"
As Rory gets out of the car,two tees fall out of his pocket.
"What are those things, laddie?" asks the attendant.
"They're called tees," replies Rory.
"And what would ya be usin 'em for, now?" inquires the Irishman.
"Well, they're for resting my balls on when I drive," replies Rory.
"Aw,Jaysus, Maryan' Joseph!" exclaims the Irish attendant. "Those fellas at
Mercedes think of everything..
Good one, made me chuckle..
DeleteAAII bulls at lowest since March, 2009 and bears at 11 month high (lots of neutrals still).
ReplyDeleteI take this as a good sign that once Greece gets resolved, either way, market ready for a move upwards. Uncertainty turns people bearish.
Same dynamic as we are seeing in BP today. Settlement with states, even though probably very high takes uncertainty off the table and stock up 5% in premarket.
ENPH- Today's magic number is 7.43!
ReplyDeleteSome pretty wide spreads out there this am.
ReplyDeletePeople heading out early for the long weekend?
DeleteYeah I noticed a $0.30 spread on Z for a little while there.
DeleteWe can't trust price action at all, we have to be able to value based on balance sheet.
ReplyDelete"Lowest number of job seekers since 1977, not the sign of a healthy labor market"
ReplyDeleteBP - I had no idea there would be a ruling today.
ReplyDeleteFord - MSFT must've composed the S/W, S/W that barely works until you begin stressing it a little sounds familiar.
ReplyDeleteI still believe that the inherent structural supply/demand setup in housing (i.e 8 or so years of under-building + population growth + household formation) will provide significant support for the economy/markets. I view this whole past 8 months or so as a consolidation phase that ultimately moves higher.
ReplyDeleteIt would be great if that was to happen, then perhaps my trading account could gain. Lately that hasn't been the case far too long. actually.
Deleteyeah i hear ya. tough market. i think there's a lot of institutions slowly selling which is why we see all pops getting smothered out.
DeleteQLYS - Holy crap man......
ReplyDeleteAKS - That has to be a buy........
BXP - This guy manages a lot of property in the metro-DC area, where there are 71 million sqft of vacant office space. Notice insiders have trimmed their positions.
ReplyDeleteIEP - How much of this one is insider owned? Not sure why I can never get you guys to even consider insider ownership as a metric.......Yeah, sometimes they're wrong but they do have better insight than probably most anyone considering they're running the company.
I started buying back into BIS after looking closer at the valuations of these. Brent noticed an error in my spreadsheet which caused the p/e to be significantly below what it should be for IBB. after including those stocks with negative earnings you're looking at a p/e of around 95 for IBB.
ReplyDeleteHousing - "Cash sales are drying up" It wasn't clear but may have referred to DC metro area....
ReplyDeleteNot sure what this suggests, housing prices perhaps need time for consolidation or now banks will be called upon for mortgage loans?
CMCSA - Okay, someone sold that pop it seems. Volume was 1.1 so maybe they take that and go over to the dark side?
AMD - Well, not sure what that was, an early mistake? Sure are seeing a lot of these pops just prior to dropping to failing and moving to new low range.
ReplyDeletePBMD, bought a little at the close and I mean little. This way I'll pay more attention, filled the 1st gap, sure do not want to see it hit the 2nd gap.
ReplyDeleteMW: Prima BioMed Ltd. (PBMD:NASDAQ; PRR:ASX) is an Australian immunotherapy company by origin, and listed on NASDAQ. It is active in immunotherapy with a broad pipeline aimed at developing therapies for several types of cancer and autoimmune disease. Next to its proprietary LAG-3 platform, its lead product is CVac, an autologous, dendritic cell-based cancer vaccine that’s in clinical trials for ovarian cancer. The company recently released positive Phase 2 results that showed a clear overall survival benefit in second-remission patients with ovarian cancer. I feel these results will trigger a potential partnership with big pharma to start with a Phase 3 trial.
TLSR: What should make CVac interesting to investors, in addition to its fast-track and orphan drug status with the FDA?
MW: Prima BioMed’s CVac is a good example of a successful immunotherapy, a therapy that has come a long way in recent years and is now on the brink of becoming a key player in oncology. We expect a partnership with a large pharmaceutical company in the near future. So far, the company has financed the development of CVac all by itself.
“The big chunk of the healthcare sector’s overall growth is coming from subsectors like biotechnology.”
Next to that, LAG-3 is an increasingly important immuno-oncology target, which is dominated by Prima BioMed. LAG-3 possibly has the ability to activate the immune system to kill cancer cells. When you look at the immunotherapy field, there are quite a lot of products already on the market and in development. I think that immunotherapy is the most important field of cancer drug development today.
Most advanced immune therapy under LAG-3 is IMP321, a soluble LAG-3 therapy. In cancer patients, IMP321 showed it could, in combination with chemotherapy in Phase 2a, double the clinical response rate compared to chemo alone.
Almost bought Fcau today but decided against it. I sold z at 87.8 to try for lower prices and to raise cash which is now above 50%. Still hoping for lower prices
ReplyDeleteSOXL - Whatcha think, good entry? Looks like bear flag and those have been fruiting lately.
ReplyDeleteNSPR - Institutions have been loading up? I'd like to own a rocket for a change..... It's about time.
ReplyDeleteAVAV - Only 11% off the 52 week low, might still be in bargain territory? Would love to know whose drones will be used for AMZN delivery, will it be TSLA vehicles driven by UBER entrepreneurs or stick in the mud FDX?
ReplyDeleteTalk about change, we certainly have seen what looks like tectonic shift.
Byron Wien, Barron's
ReplyDelete“The whole world is suffering from too much debt. As a result, growth almost everywhere is going to be slow. I know you believe the problem is insufficient demand, but the major industrialized countries already have considerable debt and do not want to add any more to it to stimulate the consumer. Japan is an exception. They already have the highest debt to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of any major country and they are willing to add more. China is an exception on the other side. They are in a position to take on more debt because their debt to GDP ratio is low. Without more fiscal stimulus, demand will be tepid and growth will be disappointing. This is the state of the world now, and it is likely to endure for some time. In the near term, I don’t see a calamity, just sluggish economies and many equity markets not doing much.
“It is not easy to make money these days. In the past, if you had the right asset allocation, you could do well for institutional investors. Now most asset classes are fully valued. The bond market is expensive, equities are not cheap anywhere, gold is dead; other commodities are in bear markets, the emerging markets are generally not attractive, China is dangerous, and Europe and Japan are reasonably fully priced. As I said last year, the only way to make serious money is by carefully investing in innovation. You can make a modest return in equities in the major markets – I agree with you that the U.S. market will end the year higher than it is now. But if you want to make real money investing, you will have to do it by picking stocks in technology and biotechnology, and I would emphasize the latter.
“Most people still don’t recognize the gigantic implications of this phenomenon. Major breakthroughs are going to be taking place in cancer, heart disease, Alzheimer’s, diabetes, multiple sclerosis and other diseases. Picking the right companies can produce impressive returns in a difficult overall market environment. Right now there are literally hundreds of small companies working on significant products. Many of them will fail, but a few will change the world the way Google and Facebook did. Most are located in California and Boston, but there are also some in Europe and Asia. The United States is dominant, however. You should spend your time trying to understand what these companies are doing. The returns for picking the winners could be huge. What’s more, the pace of innovation is quickening. The rewards for proper asset allocation will be very modest. I like Facebook (ticker: FB ); Salesforce.com ( CRM ); biotech ETFs; an industrial company, CS Industries ; Visa ( V ); Apple ( AAPL ) , of course; Alibaba ( BABA ); and Palo Alto Networks. I am out of Google.