Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Comment Cleaner

108 comments:

  1. http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/06/are-grantham-and-hussman-correct-about-sp-500-valuations/

    thanks Mark

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  2. IWC / RUT less than 1% from all time highs.

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  3. ISIS is funded by US government and Saudi Arabia, why is our news media pretending this isn't true?

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  4. NCR - There ya go. But you didn't read about it here.

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  5. NOR - Impressive amount of debt, and just obtained more?

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  6. QIHU - I guess it might need consolidation at least, who knows, it's had a good run. $81 target on this one.

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  7. That EYES chart looks phenomenal.

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  8. We haven't had a +2% day in a long time huh?

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    1. The only constant is nonsense followed by more of the same. EYES took a steep dive right after I bought and that theme is as good as the current theme near as I can make out.

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    2. I was thinking we had a shot at a +2% day today but not looking likely now.

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  9. SPWR / FSLR Yieldco IPO coming Friday. SPWR is my largest position

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    1. $24ish looked good to me, I lost interest following the gap up. Is yieldco a financial gimmick or another way of saying subsidies? The latter term I can comprehend.

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    2. Yieldco is ultimately financial gimmickry, which ultimately will probably have bad effects. But for now it's a brilliant way for solar companies to offload their solar projects onto a willing buyer (ie raise capital) in exchange for a steady stream of income payments coming back to them.

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    3. Okay, that seems like a marketing scheme that could actually pan out.

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  10. TTM - Man, it's been a rough year so far. Makes me wonder what's stopping this company from jumping on the electric car bandwagon and taking on TSLA? I just don't see where TSLA's competitive advantages lie but I do see a place for the electric commuter vehicle.

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    1. I've been reading more about Elon Musk. That dude is very impressive. Makes me feel like anything I work on is worthless compared to the things he's doing.

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    2. Yeah, he's definitely impressing me for taking over NUMI and building out a vehicle company where so many failed. I'm beginning to believe the electric commuter vehicle is becoming a feasible reality. Such a big change from status-quo..

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  11. Any idea why GDX / GDXJ is mirroring XLE of late (ie past 9 months or so)?

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    1. Can't really think of a good reason $US should weaken much further if any?

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  12. NCR - $10B buyout, not trading near that level. So what's up with that? Also, the thing that kept me away was my expectation of waning demand for ATM machines when the smartphones and online banking seem to be the trend to consider.

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  13. BAC - Holy WTF, that was unexpected. Not like a complete washout or something but man....... just surprised.

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  14. Rate increase - Seems like then next month, the FED will increase.

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  15. JONE - Heading to $6 now, maybe?

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  16. SIVB - This one was whacked pretty good too, a result of being one of the only sectors recently sporting gains?

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  17. Tripadvisor signed with Marriott........

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  18. Liking the move up in IBB. Hoping it gets out of this range and rallies for another month or two so I can start buying some BIS

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    1. Good place to short banks? FED still can't raise rates means economy sucks?

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    2. No way I'd short banks. They are among the cheapest stocks in the market even with low rates, so their valuation provides a floor. If interest rates stay the same, they still generate profits like now and will work to raise fee income, etc. If rates do go up, their spreads increase and the get higher profits.

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    3. IBB has no valuation support or very little other than a couple of the large caps and a parabolic chart that will almost certainly come crashing down at some point and, TOF is right, the time does look to be getting close.

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    4. I agree...I'd stay far away from shorting banks. Valuations are compelling even after the recent run up.

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  19. Trump, too funny tried to use Neil Young's song w/o asking first. Self-entitled mindset isn't used to asking for permission.

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  20. CP, the NCR $10 billion includes debt.

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    1. Okay, thus debt isn't rolled into market cap. Now I get it.

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  21. TOF, what do you think of La Jolla?

    From what I'm reading, it sounds like a nice downtown with scenic ocean views and close to a lot of stuff. Seems more variety than Del Mar or Solano.

    Also, have you done much biking around San Diego? Looks like lots of bike lanes and a few bike trails like around Mission Bay and out to Coronado.

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    1. La Jolla is one of the best places in the country. I would highly recommend it. Lots of shops, nice park on the coast, seal watching, kayaking through coves, beaches, really nice houses. It's very expensive to live in...I'm assuming the same as far as hotels goes. Its really a great place. Much larger and more stuff to do than Delmar / Solana

      I haven't done much biking other than beach biking. I like about 2 miles from the beach up in Carlsbad and its very hilly so its not really the best biking area. But I know lots of people that go biking. There are a lot of trails around as well.

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  22. Evening gents,

    So does anyone have any thoughts on water related stocks as a long term investment? I look at this from time to time but then I pass on it and move on. I was thinking of something related to membrane technology and desalination but then I read this

    http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2015/06/14/413981435/israel-bringing-its-years-of-desalination-experience-to-california
    "Desalination is seen by some as a magic bullet, the shield that saved Israel from the whims of nature. But Avrahm Tenne, head of desalination at Israel's water authority, says surpluses don't start with huge desalination plants.

    "Desalinization is not the first step that you are doing. It's probably the last step," Tenne says.

    Israel has invested in repairing leaking pipes, run ad campaigns promoting conservation and built a separate water industry around recycling sewage water. Eighty-six percent is now recycled, he said, providing farmers half of their annual need."

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    1. I know of two guys starting up desalination plants out here. Both have said it's very expensive and costs aren't yet there to make it a competitive source. But CA is in dire need of water.

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    2. Could save a bunch of water by switching commodes over to an alternative fluid. PLL was my water play BEFORE it vaulted.

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    3. PKI might also become involved or already? Reservoir improvements have been the suggestion for decades now, environmentalists don't like that idea.

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  23. BB, you may want to check out Balboa Park, have not been there since the 70's.

    http://www.balboapark.org/

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    1. I agree, Balboa Park is kind of cool, as are the Zoo & Wild Animal Park. Just wasn't sure if that was the kind of trip you were looking to make.

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    2. Thanks guys. We will be going for a couple of weeks, so hope to have lots of time to see everything. We like exploring towns, getting some beach time, going hiking and biking, maybe golfing (my wife's elbow is bad now), seeing the tourist areas, etc. We were planning on going to the zoo as it is supposed to be one of the best, but the rest of the park looks interesting too. Worth a walk through for sure.

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  24. "Banks are priced low, can continue gaining" - Excluding Canadian banks?

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  25. JONE - Still falling off a cliff, wonder what happened....

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  26. ENOC - Ripped higher. Pfffttt, is this thing on? :)

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    1. Just let it go at 10.85, no real reason than taking it when its there.

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  27. Wow man, lots of filtration water purification companies seem to be concentrating on bio-industry... Lots of people/money on that ship.... Would it really be difficult to see signs of smart money jumping ship?

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  28. California and water - Everyone knew it was unsustainable decades ago even before Al Gore invented climate change.

    Isn't it really very strange Donald Trump tried using a song in his campaign written by an environmentalist?

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  29. Bill Gates' Thorium reactor could contribute to the fight against climate change?

    http://www.the-weinberg-foundation.org/2013/07/23/bill-gates-nuclear-company-explores-molten-salt-reactors-thorium/

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  30. TDW - Saw that coming. No thanks for the oil industry for their low prices they get smacked good.

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  31. CBI - Coverage by JPM target $65.......... Does this seem right or is this a sell signal? P/E seems low, but it fell with this P/E not so long ago...

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  32. FWIW

    Next week, the week after June Expiration has a negative bias.

    Art Cashin

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    1. Makes sense to me, judging by the chart as well.

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  33. TTM - Fill in blank: Still don't like this one b/c ____________.

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    1. Don't know much about it. Maybe because it is an Indian company, it's not getting full value, kind of like happens for a lot of Chinese companies.

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    2. Well relative to sales ttm is pricey

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    3. Having said that it sure looks bounceable here

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    4. price/sales - There's a good point. TTM by the way is well known in many parts of the world aside in large part from North America. I fully expect India and Africa to become progressively important growth regions, my vision like water quality would be a big winner.

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  34. AUMN - So if solar launches, will it drag silver with it and perhaps take that to the promised target of $250.xxxxxxxx bazillion?

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  35. CP,

    I'm still holding CBI. It's had a nice move off the bottom, but still cheap. Business is good from the concalls and I think the valuation goes back up to at least a 15 p/e and maybe a market level one. Either way,it's 50% upside from here, so I'm good to keep.

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    1. Yeah, I've just been ripped to shreds on BXE so can't take any more risk. Good luck though.

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  36. One of those days where the broad markets are up a lot, but my stocks are flatish.

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  37. Bought up a 5% position in Z at $87.3

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  38. BXE - There must be some more oil company bankruptcies in Alberta I haven't heard about, Ivanhoe was probably not the latest billionaire's company to screw shareholders?

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  39. Wow. I bought a 3% position in my old favorite PBMD at $1.81, hoping to add another couple %, went to the bathroom and it's up 7%

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  40. Interesting that we are having such a good up day as the Greece negotiations seem to fail.

    Not sure that it is a good thing. A but of fear and panic might have been better for setting up the next up leg in the market, but it is so well known, maybe the selling is all done and we are in the "buy the news" phase.

    Thoughts?

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    1. Econ data was favorable, reviewing the news here...

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  41. CP, maybe take a small, starter position in TTM. I find it tends to focus your mind and gives you the opportunity to add (or sell) at appropriate times.

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  42. I think there's a chance we have a sizeable rally here, to 2,250 or so, which sucks in some sideline money. I think at point we drop 10%+. Lines up with a biotech top in August/Sept at hopefully $400 (IBB)

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  43. NRG Yield, this could be the yieldco thing popping?

    http://seekingalpha.com/news/2588005-nrg-yield-buys-stake-in-giant-california-solar-farm?source=email_rt_mc_readmore&uprof=44&dr=1#email_link

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  44. BAC - I seriously doubt this gets whacked on the announcement but maybe provides an opportunity.

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  45. There's a saying on Wall Street-> 'Stay humble, or the market(s) will do it for you.'

    We all know John Hussman's a smart guy. A PhD in Economics from Stanford + eight years as a Professor of Economics and International Finance at Michigan. He's certainly a good writer- he's written about 520 permutations of the same weekly summary for five years. He started the Hussman Strategic Growth Fund in 2000, and for many years the fund did quite well- well enough to attract $5b in assets under management (AUM) at its peak.

    Fund performance the past five years? -7.29% annually (during one of the most spectacular bull markets in history). http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pm?s=HSGFX+Performance

    How badly does the fund lag its benchmark? Let's take it easy on him and use a plain vanilla target-date fund for comparison, FFKDX (Fidelity 2020 Fund): +9.44% annually over the past five years. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pm?s=ffkdx&ql=1

    So a fund managed by a guy with a PhD in Economics from Stanford has under-performed a fund managed by a guy with a BA in Statistics from the University of Delaware by >200% over the past five years.

    No reason to feel sorry for John. With an expense ratio of 1.1% and annual AUM of between $700m and $5b, he's made a fortune losing other people's money.

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    1. Let me manage $5b for one year and lose money. I can do that.

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    2. I can do it and write a more entertaining weekly summary at the same time.

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  46. Immelt says retereat from EXIM will cost jobs........ Is this an excuse for layoffs or b/c GE sold their finance arm prematurely? Immelt was presiding on the lead up to the meltdown, wasn't he?

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  47. I notice jesse recently reprinted a few gems from Paul Tudor Jones. My favorite:

    'If I have positions going against me, I get right out; if they are going for me, I keep them… Risk control is the most important thing in trading. If you have a losing position that is making you uncomfortable, the solution is very simple: Get out, because you can always get back in.'

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  48. Alright, time to post my bad ideas from today.

    Scaling into contrarian positions:

    (a) HDGE at 10.39 (a new 52-wk low).
    (b) CHK (Chesapeake Energy) @ 11.99 (also a new low). Natural gas tends to trade 'contra' to the broader market.
    (c) Should prices remain at current levels, will reopen a small position in RYGBX (Rydex 1.2x Government Long Bond) at the close, on today's drop in TLT (-0.86%). Which I did.

    Note that RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) closed the 1030 window up just +0.39% (to 62.52), despite a +0.82% move in EEM. One reason I avoid leveraged funds when I can, and likely also a reflection of overweighting in China by Rydex.

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    1. I've been full of bad ideas lately. Such as remaining sidelined at Wednesday's close after deciding against opening positions in RYWVX and RYPMX.

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  49. TTM - Well, there's the answer it seems.......

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  50. Unusual currents indeed.

    (a) Traders who chased the Shanghai Composite last week are now down -11% following an overnight riptide that trimmed -6.42% off the index.
    (b) Yesterday's rally in miners appears to have been a head fake, with GDX giving up Thursday's gains at the open.
    (c) You could say the same for the oil/energy sector.
    (d) Not surprisingly, EEM (Emerging Markets), EWZ (Brazil), FXI (China 'H' Shares) and CAF (China 'A' Shares) facing headwinds at the open.
    (e) The one green amidst a sea of red? TLT +0.9% ;)

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  51. Sold Z at $90.4. Taking gains when I have them.

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  52. BXE - Someone get on the horn with these guys and ask them to turn the gas back on, lol........

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  53. BXE - Trading like anticipating bankruptcy prior to next weeks open.

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  54. I ended up selling my position in SPWR today at $31.8. Got too greedy and thought we would see a pop heading into the Yieldco IPO. I think I made about 0.1% on this trade. Oh well. May come back to this trade later on.

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  55. (a) I plan to chase the dragon myself here. Opening a position in CAF (China 'A' Shares) @ 33.40 (-5% from Thursday's close). The Shanghai Composite is still in an uptrend, and I've been waiting for a decent pullback. If not now, when? Relatively low-risk entry, but a high-risk sector. Sizing down appropriately.

    (b) Closing RYGBX (Rydex 1.2x Government Long Bond) end of day, probably for a +1.4% gain. TLT currently +1.17%. The DJIA is currently off -103 points and bonds may have further to run, but even bond charts recently resemble an EKG tracing so I'll take gains when I have them.

    (c) Amidst the volatility, HDGE is up exactly +0.01? I don’t get it, but I'm not going to waste any time debating why.

    (d) GDX (miners) now down -2.8%, and I plan to buy the pullback. Sizing down.

    (e) EEM (Emerging Markets) off just -0.67%, but with Rydex over-weighted on Brazil + China I may get a decent 'fill' on RYWVX. Small position in RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) ahead of the weekend as well.

    I like Tudor Jones' advice re risk management. There are multiple 'currents' going into Monday, and I don't pretend to understand any of it: Greece, China, $USD, industrial materials at a 6-year low, and historic volatility in bonds. Downsizing feels right, and I'll let the ebb and flow of prices carry my positions higher or stop me out.

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  56. Adding small positions in RYVIX (oil services) + RYEIX (energy).

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  57. We've gone from a society with a weak health care system to a society based primarily on health care? Same kind of thing took place for Canada at some point, no?

    UEC - Saw that coming.
    GPL - Holy crap, was just looking at this one yesterday wondering if there were remote chances for any recovery.

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    1. Didn't take many shares to drop GPL, almost seems like a window of opportunity was wide open?

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  58. TGIBF - Have a great weekend, guys. :)

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  59. Very Much Recommend Vad's latest book: A TAOIST TRADER ...
    http://www.amazon.com/Taoist-Trader-Vadym-Graifer/dp/0973779659/

    Am working through it along with re-reading Sun Tzu's ART OF WAR
    Some links ....
    http://theimpatienttrader.blogspot.com/2010/07/art-of-wartrading.html
    http://www.bigfatpurse.com/2010/02/applying-sun-tzus-art-of-war-to-trading/

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  60. We've gone from a society with a weak health care system to a society based primarily on health care? Same kind of thing took place for Canada at some point, no?

    > Not sure what you are trying to say. Canada spends about 12% of GDP on healthcare as compared to the US's 19% and has universal coverage and higher life expectancy. It is probably more of a service to the economy as much of it is government run and we do not have the big private insurers and pharma companies that the US has.

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    1. Was contemplating similarities from an anticipatory history repeats itself perspective.

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  61. This article is like memory lane.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-19/last-rebels-25-things-we-did-kids-would-get-someone-arrested-today?page=2

    Can you dig it?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBG5PQuW6oo

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  62. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OEJh2FFUUoU

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    1. Bonamassa

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wSQwj3s8Y4s

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  63. BB

    SAN DIEGO
    San Diego is a bustling coastal destination even in October, when temperatures hover in the mid-70s. Locals and tourists alike soak in the warmth while jogging or cycling the path along Pacific Beach, or strolling the chi-chi shopping areas in La Jolla. At night, the historic Gaslight Quarter downtown is where you'll find fine dining, rooftop cocktails, and nightclub dancing.

    Insider Tip: Don’t miss the drive across the San Diego-Coronado bridge to Coronado and its eponymous beach, consistently ranked as one of the best in the country. Stroll down Orange Avenue to browse the many shops, then grab lunch at the Ferry Landing, with its gorgeous views of the San Diego Skyline. Then wander through the grand Hotel del Coronado, built in 1888.

    http://www.fodors.com/news/photos/10-places-where-summer-lasts-longer#!10-san-diego

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    1. Coronado is pretty awesome. I'd definitely recommend renting a bike and spending the day down there

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    2. Thanks for the info guys. La Jolla is looking pretty expensive to be on he water, so thinking either La Jolla off he beach or Solano Beach or maybe Carlsbad to get somehing on the ocean.

      They are further up the coast, but don't seem too far and could make a day trip up to LA area from there.

      Any thougts on Carlsbad vs. Solana Beach?

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