The DJIA opens off -200 points. Normally, I would be buying into an opening
selloff. This morning, my plan is to
instead pare back/close positions into what should be a reflexive bounce.
From a contrarian point of view, my take is that the appropriate
'contrarian' view is 'too many contrarians in the house' and perhaps the
correct trade is to remain bearish.
2015 has been hands down the most difficult market I've
traded.
One market commentator I follow (Helene Meisler) summed up my take in one sentence: 'Folks still seem more afraid of missing a rally than a decline.'
ReplyDeleteUPNP is 'universal plug and play
ReplyDeleteOh yeah PNP duh, A windows term that didn't jump out at me, lol... PNP searches for the driver but you still have to know which one is correct so you can change it when the wrong one is selected else your mousie won't work, lol
Anyway back to AC, Tesla was the guy who figured out AC provides advantages, Edison's DC power grid was a big flop. The solar cell produces DC which must be converted by inverter to AC at some point in the system but batteries store DC so efficiency can be compromised to some degree with unnecessary back and forth conversions.
Anyway, I feel like the rooftop system almost has to have some DC storage capability.
The problem with Windows is there's no troubleshooting capability built into the system anymore. Remember when they used to include some tools? Now you cannot find important details like how many and which scripts are running and abort it if it's hung and not running, stuck in an infinite loop without practically shutting don in many cases.
Out of all positions.
ReplyDeleteHAL - Wow, still above that $36.9 level, amazing. Thought surely it would fail considering the many retests. I need to look as this more closely...
ReplyDeleteMy time frame is longer term, but I really don't see the cutback in commodity spending as a big deal.
ReplyDeleteWe had a big overinvestment cycle due to the China and the commodity supercycle, so a pullback, while painful to certain portions of the economy is a normal rebalancing and not a sign of a weakening economy.
Similarly, bond yields got too low (prices to high), so the normalization of this is also more of a sign of a strengthening economy, not a problem.
URG is green slightly, are you guys sure the global warming solution isn't actually nuclear power supplied via grid?
ReplyDeleteMark, how much power is MOG's system estimated to produce, any idea? Cost would be interesting metric as well.
Yeah hard market.
ReplyDeleteFirst, here is a quick take on what Cashin learned about 2015: "2015 was like commuting by rollercoaster. There were heart-stopping drops, there were nearly vertical ascents, and when it was all over you got off just about where you started and it cost you money. And not only was that true of the stock market, it was true of the yield on the 10 Year. The 10 Year is virtually where it began the year."
"One of the most difficult markets in 50 years"
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-10/2015-was-commuting-rollercoaster-art-cashin-reviews-2015-market-and-shares-his-2016-
Since June say I been flat to down six or seven times and am down at the moment, just never could seem to get into the green.
Still kicking myself for not doing the BIS trade in July. Oh well.
DeleteBB, KCLI, do you remember what percent management owns and is going to vote yes? This seems like a fairly sure deal yet one can see how market action affects this.
ReplyDeleteWindows 10 they cue me every day to upgrade, pain, I'm not interested in the hassle.
Yeah, all of my previous systems have eventually been bricked by the need to upgrade.
DeleteThus I'd rather switch over to something that doesn't decay so rapidly but it takes time to figure out which way to go. MSFT should own semiconductor stock b/c they drive the sales using this sw architecture that slowly craps out on purpose.
NMM - Alright I picked up some of this one for the dividend.
ReplyDeleteLooking forward to my wooded property qualifying for fossil fuel tax credit offsets otherwise I'll have to cut all the trees down and convert it into an RV storage unit parking lot using cheap gravel, concrete and asphalt to cover over the useless soil.
ReplyDeleteI've been trading enough lately I've lost track of how much cash I've got at my disposal. You'd think my broker would have a field I could check to verify this but the figures I'm looking at don't agree with my figures by a long shot.
ReplyDeleteLABD / BIS look prepared to do a moonshot.
ReplyDeleteBIS, man that was a great call, perhaps next time when you have a call like that keep going back to it till you stick it. Always easy in hindsight.
DeleteYeah. Well hopefully I'll make up for it here as I bought some LABD today at $38. We shall see.
DeleteCashin from today.
ReplyDeleteNaturally, the topics of the economy and the stock market came up. One thing that saw general agreement had to
do with the recent actions of the ECB.
The reaction of the euro to the initial announcement and to Draghi's later restatement, suggested to most of us that
a section of the ECB Board (and maybe a majority) don't want open ended QE. The follow-up comments by folks
like Nowotny reinforce that perception.
That, in turn, raises the question of what happens if there is a negative surprise and markets find that Draghi is
handcuffed. Not a nice scenario.
There were other topics and I'll try to get to them over time. Anyway, it was a great party.
The other thing that roiled the market I think is Whitman's Third Avenue shutting out investors right to redeem in their high yield fund, whose next.
DeleteThey must have changed the rules on that, when we trade big in mutual funds back in the day, on 250K and above they had the right to just give you securities in lieu of redemption, but I have never seen it done.
Scary stuff and in a way 08ish stuff, who knows what's really lurking underneath the surface.
Here is what Cashin says about this, just read it.
Delete"Consensus – The fund liquidation problem seems to be reverberating among various assets and markets with its
echoes of late 2008. Stocks look to open with a down-spike. Markets need to avoid a domino effect. Stay wary,
alert and very, very nimble. Try to have a wonder weekend!"
Like reaching into a running wood chipper.
DeleteAll bloodied!
Delete* Never reach into a chipper while it is operating.
DeleteDo not wear loose-fitting clothing around a chipper.
Maintain a safe distance (i.e., two tree or log lengths) between chipper operations and other work/workers.
When servicing and/or maintaining chipping equipment (i.e., “unjamming”) use a lockout system to ensure that the equipment is de-energized.
Fargo
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LyPhsD1vHGk
Let it Snow
Does anyone know if there is a way to search on this blog of all of a person's comments?
ReplyDeleteTrucking - I'm expecting these guys might receive some kind of relief from the shutdown of the oil patch, no more need for transporting fricking sand?
ReplyDeleteKCLI, I think this is what BB noted. "The meeting where the vote will be held is December 15th. Over 66% of the holders are committed to vote yes already, so really just a formality. The money should be in your account a few days later, depending on how quick your broker is."
ReplyDeleteOkay just picked this up in two accounts at 47.85, let's see if they can screw me on this?
I bet if older than a day or two, it wasn't very easily found. Unless maybe you're using a better search method than I am...
DeleteKCLI - Better entry today.
ReplyDeleteRe: KCLI -
ReplyDeleteIs this any risk:
NEW YORK , Sept. 10, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- On September 9, 2015 , Sherow Management, LLC , an outside shareholder, sent a letter addressed to Kansas City Life Insurance Co's Board Chairman in response to the Company's proposed "Go-Private" Transaction. Sherow believes the deal is unfair to outside shareholders and should be amended. Excerpts from the letter and a link to a copy follow.
Sherow Management, LLC Eric Smallowitz 30 Broad Street , 14th FL New York, NY 10004 646-480-4844
September 9, 2015
Mr. Robert Philip Bixby Chairman of the Board Kansas City Life Insurance Co. 3520 Broadway Kansas City, MO 64111
Dear Mr. Bixby, I write to you on behalf of shareholders regarding Kansas City Life Co's proposed stock registration termination transaction, detailed in the proxy dated 8/4/2015. In my opinion, the proposed 'go-private' transaction is wholly unfair to minority shareholders, both those small holders being offered an inadequate price of $52.50 per share & even more so to Institutional holders including Sherow Capital Partners, LP , represented in this letter by its General Partner. The Company's proposal would effect no positive change for holders of over 30% of outstanding stock but does in fact do significant harm to those holders.
I believe the Board of Directors did not fulfill its Fiduciary duty to protect minority shareholders' interests in crafting this proposal. The Board should immediately rectify this by fulfilling its obligation to maximize value for all Shareholders by instructing its Financial Advisors to fully explore all avenues for value creation. I urge fellow shareholders to clearly reject this proposal & force the Board to represent all Shareholders evenly.
Specifically, the go-private transaction is flawed & the Board's actions inadequate in many respects. First, the savings generated are insufficient to improve returns meaningfully. Second, remaining shareholders are left with no guarantee, nor any increased likelihood that the stock price now will trade closer to Management's own determined worth. The amount of shares to be bought in this transaction is small; on the contrary, KCLI's Board suspended its open market stock buyback with the announcement and has not detailed any capital return plan post the transaction's close. In fact, the proxy details many risks to going private to remaining shareholders including further reduced liquidity & even less transparency from management.
Third, the Board's duty is to all shareholders, not controlling family interest; any shareholder vote on going private should be a vote of only minority shareholders who stand to be left with a bulletin board listed stock issue. Fourth, the Independent Committee of the Board by its own admission did not explore all avenues of value creation for Shareholders, instead remained beholden to ensuring the lack of change of control from the current majority holder.
However, this transaction does in fact change the Company's capital structure in a meaningful way as well as its business operations going forward. The Company admits as much in the many risk factors detailed in the Proxy. Last, the price of $52.50 is inadequate relative to comparable transactions the past 24 months and does not reflect an accurate market valuation.
While I do not doubt the Board & Management's dedication to KCLI, I believe the Board has a made a poorly designed proposal & should change course on its own to benefit shareholder interests. I urge you to meet the Board's responsibility & examine all avenues of value creation.
Sincerely, Eric Smallowitz Principal Sherow Management, LLC
Thanks TOF, interesting and only four days to find out. Sounds like if it goes through you'll have a lawsuit.
ReplyDeleteI'm really looking forward to reading through the flurry of negative press releases this weekend. :)
ReplyDeleteGap higher monday?
DeleteDVP - One heck of a volume spike going on.
ReplyDeleteJNK - Junk is crap.
ReplyDeleteKMI, possibly this is finding a floor. It would not surprise me to this rips 30%, but perhaps that's just wishful thinking.
ReplyDeleteEYES - Someone closed their EYES position.
ReplyDeletePAH - Pyrophoric burn hazard.
ReplyDelete2020 bottom of range, right?
ReplyDeletetaking out Nov SPX lows (2019.39) is a solid negative.
ReplyDeleteSaw this today - negative on autos:
ReplyDeletehttp://charts.stocktwits.com/production/original_46684665.PNG?1449864248
and
Deletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-11/crushing-auto-makers-dreams-2-depressing-charts
And yet the fact is we are very close to setting an all-time record for auto sales in the US, finally surpassing year 2000.
DeleteI love how zerohedge picks one stat and builds a case around it and shows scary pictures to readers.
ABAC - The oinker might go green.
ReplyDeleteNOPE, not hardley.
DeleteClosing out LABD here into the close. Will re-load if we get an up open in XBI on Monday
ReplyDeleteI think the parallel to the Nasdaq 2000 is definitely in play with XBI. We're about to see sub $50 in my opinion.
DeleteMost asset classes (bonds and gold are notable exceptions) selling off hard as we approach the weekly close. DJIA now bumping against -2% at -340 points. It's almost ugly enough to consider reopening the positions I closed this morning. On the other hand:
ReplyDelete(a) I remain concerned about this market. The selling over the past week has been brisk, pronounced (especially among small- and mid-caps) and in the case of emerging markets/commodities with no 'let up' whatsoever.
(b) Markets rarely bottom on a Friday.
(c) The 'rate hike' decision looms next week, usually a good reason for markets to throw a tantrum.
I am fairly confident we see an up open on Monday. I'm hoping XBI gets to $67. I would use that as a spot to re-enter LABD
DeleteAlso have Options expiration next week for extra Tabasco sauce.
DeleteAll in all a poor close.
BXE - Fully meets it's -0.10 obligation.
ReplyDeleteChuckles for a day like today.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.traderzoo.mobi/gallery/
I haven't really been doing much lately due to getting business stuff off the ground and looking to get some stable income as I think it will be a tough road for a while in stocks. Might as well get a jump on it now rather than frustrate the hell out of myself with the market. Most setups are failing and really the only good looking setups that are working are shorts like ERY last week. I think the best setup right now is a short in biotechs. There were two significant breaks this week for XBI below $68.5 on Monday and again today below $67. Continuation calls for a move to $60 but in the bigger picture I see XBI going back to at least $50 and possibly $40. With leveraged ETFs you have to time the move well and the market needs to remain weak, obviously.
ReplyDeleteI'm also eyeing up a big bounce in sub $2 energy stocks come the spring. Have to be very careful but I think we will be able to catch a few 200% moves.
Fukushima - 100% of total spent fuel of reactor #4 was released to atmosphere. This is gonna piss some people off in a big way, my guess...
ReplyDeleteOn the bright side though, the event didn't spew CO2 into the atmosphere.
DeleteWhat do I mean by 'trading against machines?' After spending a little time putting myself in the shoes of a quant trying to design the Killer Algo (the same technique I use when trying to determine crowd sentiment), I have a few thoughts about inventing an Algo Killer.
ReplyDeleteThe Killer Algo:
(a) The bear trap. The market sells off-> most 'prop' traders will have learned to either (i) cut losses quickly and/or (ii) short the market as it breaches support. I would design a 'buy program' that traps both sets of traders at the point of maximum downside acceleration. A series of such programs might explain the 'sudden bounces' that have occurred each time support levels begin to give way.
(b) The bull trap. The market rallies-> most prop traders will have learned to (i) buy the breakout and/or (ii) cover shorts as prices breach resistance. I would design a 'sell program' designed to trap longs at points of maximum FOMO.
(c) Of course, (a) + (b) can be mixed/matched + tweaked in infinite ways based on what is now a large cache of behavioral finance literature.
I'll get back to you this weekend with thoughts about an Algo Killer.
First, here is a quick take on what Cashin learned about 2015: "2015 was like commuting by rollercoaster. There were heart-stopping drops, there were nearly vertical ascents, and when it was all over you got off just about where you started and it cost you money. And not only was that true of the stock market, it was true of the yield on the 10 Year. The 10 Year is virtually where it began the year."
ReplyDelete"One of the most difficult markets in 50 years"
>> Funny and seeming revisionist, because back prior to the August sell-off, all the commentary was on how it was the least volatile market almost ever. And no way you can say this year was more difficult than 2008.
Perhaps 2008 was more clearly defined concerning the trend.
DeleteI think re KCLI, you have 2 forces on the stock, the large holders and the small holders. The small holders like us just want our $52.50 next week and are happy to move on and we will buy under $52.50 as long as the return is good.
ReplyDeleteOn the other side, you have large holders. For them the $52.50 is irrelevant and they are trading knowing KCLI is near it's highs since the financial crisis. They are subject to the whims of the market and are probably OK selling on a day like today when the market is down 2% and KCLI is having a decent year. Plus, the support of small buyers is falling off as we get close to the actual date.
Re the letter from Sherow, I honestly hadn't seen it, which is a surprise since I am following KCLI on Yahoo Finance, Globe and Mail, Seeking Alpha and Google Alerts. If it was a serious threat to the deal, I'm sure it would have made more noise and there would have been discussion of this.
The good news is we find out for sure in 4 days, but I personally am feeling very confident this goes through and added 498 shares on Thursday in a couple more accounts for a quick win.
This is the chart that I look at from time to time as a corollary to the current market. Given how nasty the 2008 crash was, it seems like a good time to compare now to the 1930s. The 1937/8 crash was brought on by tightening in a market that rallied hard for several years but where the underlying economy was weak. This is similar in a lot of ways to now.
ReplyDeletehttp://farm4.static.flickr.com/3644/3323691134_f0ec6aee12_o.png
Back then there was a fairly sizeable correction in the middle of the year of about 13% or so. Then there was a rally back almost to new highs. Then from August to December the market dropped about 40% basically in free fall.
I am torn about the impact that a rate hike will have. Part of me thinks it will be a relief to get it out of the way. But the other part of me says it could be really really messy and that most people expect things to go smoothly after some initial bumps. It's all about the currencies now, it seems.
I think it turns out to be a non-event, but we'll see soon enough. Seems like a trivial event in the broad scheme of things, but could be a "butterfly effect" type thing.
DeleteA small number of stocks have been holding up the indexes, right?
DeleteJNK - Does this seem like a good bet if your time horizon is greater than 10 years? Rhetorical question.
ReplyDeleteFINALLY...my internet connect is resolved. I wouldn't wish that mess anyone.
ReplyDeleteSure took long enough, must've been complicated.
DeleteNFLX-> 'Suburra' blew me away. Highly recommended.
ReplyDeleteWe've been into the shows more than the movies. Blacklist and Jessica jones were both good
DeleteBXE - Price target has fallen from $3 to $2.5, hard to see how this gets to $10 especially considering unsustainable debt is out of favor at the same time there's too much oil supply?
ReplyDeleteMaybe I'll double up for the ride to $0.60
DeleteNone of these oil companies are going anywhere but down if oil stays below $40.
DeleteI'm just holding onto to the ones I have for now in case we bounce, but don't feel confident enough to add. Really a tough call here as oil has gone down so much and should be due for a bounce, but who knows what the Saudi's do?
I think we'll get a big bounce but I think we stay in the 40's or lower for a long time. Wish I had played this as well as I had a feeling oil was going to go down given its lack of upside during QE. I saw a big move up in the dollar but failed to think through that oil would be hit hardest. I just assumed stocks would be capped to the upside.
DeleteThink about it, Saudi Arabia supports it's economy almost entirely by oil sales, right? Those that cannot pay their debt won't be left standing.
DeleteAGO - Getting some volume here. If I'm the debtor denominated in $US, I certainly wouldn't want that currency to weaken, would I? I'd probably look to sell that debt while the currency is up, now +12% or so. I'm probably missing something.
ReplyDeleteAGO is down, almost certainly, on fears about Puerto Rico and their debt. Negotiations are continuing, but some in congress are pushing to give them access to chapter 9 bankruptcy, which is illegal now. I've seen this type of move over and over again with AGO with Detroit, Stockton, Alabama, etc. Once it is resolved, AGO bounces.
DeleteWhat I'm thinking is if AGO stays down here next week, I will probably move some of the proceeds from the KCLI sale into AGO for the next move upwards.
FED rate increase - "Shall -> "Should"?
ReplyDeleteURI - October gap up needs to close. This company looks not well positioned to me but that's an opinion that could be defeated by improving fundies.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.wsj.com/articles/peter-lynch-25-years-later-its-not-just-invest-in-what-you-know-1449459844
ReplyDeletehttp://basehitinvesting.com/the-misunderstanding-of-peter-lynchs-investment-style/
like 2nd article best
Great article on backtesting and why you can't trust it:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2015/12/backtesting/
What he talks about is exactly what Hussman did (pick a bunch of factors that randomly worked in the past and assume it is meaningful).
I'll take UGAZ for 1000 Pat.
ReplyDeleteIt's the daily double, ding ding ding.
A great deal of volatility overnight, with a range of 300 points in the DJIA futures. Oil prices continue to slide.
ReplyDelete(a) I entertained and discarded several 'short-term' solutions to trading against algos. In general, these programs are designed to exaggerate the emotional responses of already highly emotional homo sapiens, then sharply fade those responses. In theory, algos should actually enhance the results of trading against sentiment.
(b) The longer-term solution to algos is of course to ignore them. Short-term moves are largely irrelevant to buy-and-hold strategies. Swing traders might need to place wider stops, but over a period of weeks to months their results will be unaffected- they may even be better.
Not sure I trust the early strength this morning.
One 'thesis' I'm leaning toward is based on the fact that the vast majority (>70%) of stocks have already corrected. We need to see the large-caps/major indices 'catch up' on the downside. Once they do, the 'bottoming' process will be quick (having already played out for most stocks) and we can get back to the business of setting new highs.
ReplyDeletePretty heavy volume today in S&P futures.
ReplyDeleteI re-entered LABD at $38.7 this morning. I ignored my own target price of $38. I always do that - prep the trade and then rush it when I think its a good one. Not that it matters much because its in the green but I think that's where most of us mess up...lack of patience.
Still sticking with a lot of cash. Watching BITA closely. Hoping it has a small waterfall ahead of an entry point.
From Jeff Saut this morning - it's what I'm thinking too, but it may be too obvious and maybe too many people playing it, so something else happens:
ReplyDelete"The call for this week: The long awaited FOMC rate ratchet is on queue and we look for a trading bottom coincident with that event. The equity markets are massively oversold, support levels are at hand, and everyone is bearish. Friday’s Fade did nothing to upset the bullish bias except continue the broad and volatile sideways corrective pattern from October’s upside explosion. So while it is natural to read negativity into Friday’s drop, it is entirely in keeping with the bullish scenario. "
It needs to show very soon, I only have another day in a half of this and I'm stopping myself out as I'll hit my pain threshold.
DeleteReally would like to hold for a rip and trying to do that, but does not feel like its going to show in time.
Oil has turned up a bit here which could stabilize mkt here.
BXE - Meeting the $0.10 hurdle yet again today, what a great stock.
ReplyDeleteAGO article, very positive
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/3752246-puerto-rico-noise-temporarily-obstructing-assured-guarantys-value-creation
My guess is the author left out some important detail that only becomes apparent the instant I take the bait.
DeleteI'm looking at this since BB understands balance sheets, like TOF, and finds it worthwhile.
DeleteI have two reports one from New Constructs which rates it neutral, but very attractive on many other metrics. The other is Zacks which rates it as a buy.
I would post here but they are pdf's and I do not how to post to this blog. If interested and you know how to post it I will.
No need to post. Just be careful.
DeleteI guess I don't get it, how can any of this be indicative of growth and employment yet unemployment figures have been robust?
ReplyDeleteThe climate conference results seem to be creating a bullish environment for the sector but the agreement didn't seem so positive (or binding) to me thus I must've missed something?
Took LABD off at $40. Got too greedy and ignored chance to sell at $42.
ReplyDeleteBack in at $39.8. Just looking to day trade this thing.
DeleteSold at $40.1. I think I'm done with this one for today
DeleteZINC - retesting support again, probably in preparation for another leg down.
ReplyDeleteJAH - Wow, a bundle of crand names all rolled up into one, we never discuss these companies we actually buy stuff from.
ReplyDeleteYankee Candle isn't going to take over the world?
DeleteAnything low or no carbon wins hands down, automatically. ISIS should swear off carbon and collect those credits for funding.
DeleteTC - Just drifting like an earth walker or day worker willing to do whatever you need him to for a few bucks.
ReplyDeleteShorts have been working well because people have been conditioned that shorts don't work. Flip side happened in 2008. Not that we're at a major top but we're below all major moving averages and have a series of lower highs in most sectors.
ReplyDeleteI'm tempted to go with SPXL into year end here
ReplyDelete"ISIS is losing" It's pretty common for US-backed allies to "lose", like they did in Vietnam.
ReplyDeleteRBA - I still say these guys are looking at a windfall.
ReplyDeleteFNMA - Sure looks like the uber tight BB's dictated a big move and appears direction is down. Not sure what this implicates.
ReplyDeleteBXE - Another dime. Seriously, this is going to zero, right?
ReplyDeleteThe El NIno and $1.90 gas sure isn't helping.
DeleteHomeland security didn't think it would help to track terrorist activity by monitoring social media. I guess it's a good thing US troops guard Afghani poppy fields else they might fall into the wrong hands....
ReplyDeleteT3d,
ReplyDeleteAgree with you on the pain threshold comment as I was also feeling pretty uncomfortable about things this morning. I know that usually when I start feeling like this, we are very close to a bottom, so that keeps me from selling. The other thing I do is go back through the stocks I own and look at why I own them and that also makes me comfortable holding threw these periods.
Sure, this could turn into something really bad and eventually 1 time it will, but we've been threw these types of markets 5 or 6 times the last few years and every time (so far), it doesn't turn into anything big. Maybe these high yield bond issues, energy company bankruptcy's, etc., affect the broad economy and we drive another big bear market, but I really doubt it with the broad economy improving, rates low, unemployment low, auto sales very strong, housing improving, etc.
Could you sell and buy back in lower? Sure, but I know for me I've tried several times and it has cost me more than it helps, so now I just want to avoid bad sectors and pick good ones and avoid big bears like 2008.
But that's just my approach and you have to do what works for you of course.
The reason I still can't get myself to be really bearish is in the big picture the market is only up about 30% from the 2000 top. 15 years of basically sideways trading. Maybe we get a 20% drop but ultimately I don't see how its possible to get a huge drop
DeleteI just figured out why business pursues millennials and not older generations:
ReplyDelete"More than half of millennials have less than $1,000"
Re AGO, I see this pullback we are in now is due to a combination of a weak market and concern about Puerto Rico. If you go to their web site, they detail their Puerto Rico exposure and how they can handle it, but more importantly, they have already reserved for what they think their Puerto Rico losses are, so these will only increase if things get worse and AGO is very smart and did a good job for reserving for Detroit, etc., so I really am not concerned.
ReplyDeleteI am pretty sure when I get my proceeds from KCLI I will be adding to AGO this week. It's about my 5th or 6th biggest holding already, so I have a lot of faith in it.
So, the US government will stop you from flying if they think you have a tie to terrorism, but won't stop you from buying a gun - the NRA sure must be powerful down there - reminds me of how the tobacco industry kept saying smoking wasn't bad for you:
ReplyDelete"Connecticut Governor Dannel Malloy last week said his state planned to ban sales of firearms to people designated on U.S. lists as having suspected ties to terrorism or who are banned from flying on commercial aircraft. That move came days after President Barack Obama called on Congress to impose a similar prohibition nationwide following the fatal shooting of 14 people in California by a married couple inspired by Islamic State militants.
The proposal has failed to gain traction in Congress, with opponents arguing that many people on the watch lists are there by mistake and should thus not be denied access to firearms."
Probably the better question is why the no-fly list is of such low quality. If someone who wants to cause harm to others wants a pipe bomb he can probably make one?
DeleteUS constitution guarantees the right to bear arms. We can ponder over the reasons why this was decided but the point of view is just b/c one party feels like it they shouldn't be able to run roughshod over constitutional rights?
DeleteI would like to have a gun in my home in case I need to defend myself against some poor unemployed addict in the middle of the night trying to break in and steal something.
Maybe it wouldn't be necessary if industry hadn't been subsidized off to China in search of cheap child labor?
I picked up spy into the close. Prob dumb to buy after the $3 rally but seems to me the market has over reacted to a small rate hike if it's coming
ReplyDeleteSold at 203.9
DeletePWE - Being pumped by Baystreet?
ReplyDeleteThe no fly list is supposedly compiled arbitrarily, bur your DD is more indepth than mine.
ReplyDelete41.5 year low in CRB index:
ReplyDeletehttps://pbs.twimg.com/media/CWPpgikU4AAMTbb.png
Incredible.
DeleteWhat's the best leveraged etf play off this? DBC is unleveraged. I like this trade a lot.
DeleteBDD is base metals 2x, DYY commodities but neither have volume.
DeleteNMM pays a dividend, ex-div isn't till ~2/9
FCX
GGN - Dividend in jeopardy? "everyone should have gold", lol
DBB is base metals, ZINC is one SWC is more exotic.
Not sure what happened to rare earths?
Rare earths became common? Supply > demand?
DeleteSPWR - ?
ReplyDeleteSolar - I don't get it, the climate conference didn't seem very bullish to me?
ReplyDeleteI didn't really follow it. Do you have a good article recapping it?
DeleteYou're funny man, :) The correct answer is the investment tax credit is supposedly being extended.
Delete"FED may find itself having to go back to zero" Bernanke
ReplyDeleteKTEC - Not sure what's going on here, wondering if this is about to get whacked big time.
ReplyDeletePart of the JNK/SJB junk rout that might just be the straw?
ALDW - Showing weakness lately, loaded with debt. Not sure why this guy didn't instead of pay off debt chose to pay a fat divy...
GGN - Did you guys notice that crash? Not sure how this one can generate a dividend?
NMM - Right back into the toilet with other doomed junk. This commodities market action looks to me like nobody is anticipating growth. As Confirmation, Canada takes every opportunity to crash the Loonie and attract foreign (Chinese?) real estate buyers, selling out their Canadian citizens by driving RE prices up.
ReplyDeleteBXE sub $1, ripoff
ReplyDeleteDarvas on stops, we all know this.
ReplyDeletehttp://financetrends.blogspot.com/2014/05/nicolas-darvas-on-stops-no-loss-free.html
Agree, being in the right stock is the best strategy also admitting it's junk right away and getting out.
DeleteI find the former easier to accomplish than the latter b/c it's easier to assess intent than short term moves that evolve into a trend only after losses have reached painful levels. "Measure twice cut once" maybe describes the concept?
1,000 LA schools shut down due to potential threat.
ReplyDeleteApartment rentals are up 3x that of wages, trend remains intact. I'd guess healthcare costs are up greater than wages as well?
ReplyDeleteJeff Saut calling for a "rip your face off" rally and new alltime highs by year end
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/15/stocks-ready-for-rip-your-face-off-rally-saut.html
picked up some AGO for a starter 25.14
DeleteKCLI?
Vote was at 10:00 Kansas City time, 11:00 EST. Haven't been able to find any news yet, but the stock hasn't moved, so a good sign I'd say.
DeleteGuess it will be an after market close news.
DeleteCalled their office and tried to speak to the VP who is on the SEC paperwork, but just got voicemail. Will try again tomorrow before market open if the news is not out before then
DeleteToday will be the first day n a month that we have had back to back higher close if holds. I'm going to lighten up and see if I can rebuy lower.
ReplyDeleteMAC - "Tysons Corner Plans Transit for When It Gets as Big as Houston "
ReplyDeleteFBP - Puerto Rico
ReplyDeleteUA - Word is all the kids want their parents to buy them UA shoes. Fad over yet?
ReplyDeleteFNMA - Still going down. What does this imply?
ReplyDeletehttp://biz.yahoo.com/e/151215/kcli8-k.html
ReplyDeleteVote approved. Reverse split to take place tomorrow (16th) at 6:00 PM. You should have your money by the end of the week or maybe early next week if your broker is slow.
Good intuition, Mike, about oil stocks taking another step down!
ReplyDeleteHas anyone seen a good explanation as to why the yield on junk bonds keeps going up?
ReplyDeleteOK, I get it -- most of the oil companies borrowed a lot of money for development and they have a junk status. As oil goes down, so are their bond prices. But then, as Jeremy Grantham has noted, low oil prices increase economic productivity, which is good for GDP. So the current spike in high yield prices is actually beneficial for DOW, unlike the case in 2007...
DeleteYeah all related to oil. Massive bubble over the past decade in energy which is why I avoided it. What's the next bubble :)
DeleteEnergy debt is a big concern.
DeleteBut the other factor is high yield, in general, got priced too high (yields too low) the last few years as people chased yield and didn't worry too much about risk and bonds got priced high with few covenants, etc. With rates looking to broadly rise, high quality corporate debt is also going down in price, but high yield is falling faster as risk becomes a bigger issue.
Busy day... CP, if the ITC is going be actually be extended even I don't own enough in solar stocks.
ReplyDeleteMHRC R.I.P.
ReplyDeleteFriday was an ugly day, one which inflicted the kind of damage that forces prudent traders to play defense. What's changed since then? From a macro-economic perspective, absolutely nothing. Instead, we were treated yesterday and today to an entertaining game, the Wall Street version of Madden Football. On Monday, a strong open was abruptly sold, driving the DJIA down -100 points. I anticipated the selloff (opening a couple of small positions in the morning), as well as the reversal (closing on the bounce). What caught me off guard was today's 'gap up and run.' Like most traders, I don't like to chase. The algos have done a great job running poorly positioned longs/shorts on overnight gaps up/down. I read recently that almost 100% of the gains in the SPX in November occurred in overnight 'ES' futures trading.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure this is my kind of playing field.
We'll find out tomorrow whether the Fed hikes rates for the first time since June 2006! We may finally begin to see a real trend (up or down, and I'm uninterested in guessing which direction) in stock prices, and the short-term gaming may die down.
KCLI, if you'd rather skip the SEC filing, from the KC journal:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bizjournals.com/kansascity/news/2015/12/15/kansas-city-life-shareholders-vote-to-go-private.html
Turned out differently this time?
DeleteNo, the vote was to go ahead with the plan.
DeleteYeah I did see that, not sure what I was thinking (what was my question?). Spend $31m to save $850k/year that's over 30 years to recoup the expense? Trying to comprehend for my education, not really question if it happened or not.
DeleteInternal ownership was high enough to make it happen it seems.
I picked up a little FDX into the close today. It's trading at around 13-14x EPS. It's basically a duopoly with pretty strong pricing power. I think ultimately Amazon takes over one of these guys
ReplyDeleteOil has an almost identical chart to the S&P in the last stages of the bear market. In fact, if you line it up, oil bottomed yesterday. Unfortunately, there doesn't appear to be any other catalyst than it's cheap. At least with stocks when its cheap it also pays a dividend.
ReplyDeleteOffshore will be adding to supply once the projects are completed.
DeleteHELI - Now it's clear who's been one of the sellers.
ReplyDeletehttp://realmoney.thestreet.com/articles/12/15/2015/forget-junk-many-third-avenue-holdings-are-trash?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO
If the 2008 parallel holds then oil may have formed a significant bottom just now. Haven't heard many calls for that
ReplyDeleteYou were interested in solar before, what happened to change your mind?
DeleteFound other things to lose money in
Delete"I am a car salesman and have been for over 20 years. I have NEVER seen our inventories at this level and more keeps coming. Sales are down as manufacturers count sales as soon as they hit our lot. Eventually we, as many other dealers, will tell them “no more” and then TSHTF."
ReplyDeleteWhat brand?
DeleteIt came from the comments section here, no brand or dealership mentioned.
Deletehttp://wolfstreet.com/2015/12/15/freight-shipments-plummet-as-inventory-glut-bites/
Rolls Royce
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bbc.com/news/business-35108958
BB, thanks for sharing KCLI event.
This is nasty man, more sewage treatment projects for sure.
ReplyDelete"Baltimore faulted for dumping raw sewage into Jones Falls"
Place your bets, suggest always choosing black.
ReplyDeleteThings Could Get Bumpier – Here's some points from a Bloomberg article in front of today's FOMC meeting and
ReplyDeletedecision:
…... The S&P 500 has become more turbulent in 10 out of the last 12 tightening cycles. In the last 70
years, daily swings in the equity benchmark index widened by 23 percent on average in the six months
after the first rate hike of a cycle compared with the half year leading up to it. The number of days when
the gauge rose or fell more than 1 percent climbed to 27 in the six months after from 20 in the six
months prior.
While the broad market is little changed for the year, with the S&P 500 slipping 0.8 percent, violent
swings have been more frequent than any time since 2011. The index has moved 1 percent or more on
67 days this year, almost double the total in 2014. At 21, the VIX is 29 percent above its average of 16.3
around the last three initial rate hikes since its inception.
Investors face one of the biggest tests of the post-crisis era as the Fed prepares to raise rates at a time
when profits are in decline. Such a combination hasn’t occurred in five decades. The valuation picture
doesn’t help either. At 21 times profit, the S&P 500 is trading higher than it was at the end of eight of the
past 10 bull markets. History shows a contraction in equity valuations is almost inevitable.
Never before has a stock rally gone on this long without an interest-rate increase. While historically stocks
fared well, with the S&P 500 rising about 2 percent over the first 12 months after the initial rate hikes, the
confluence of higher valuations and weak earnings underscores the risk to a bull market that, if it lasts
through April would surpass the 1949-1956 run to become the second-longest in history.
Except for the fiscal stimulus budget bill announced last night?
DeleteENPH - Holy crap man, what happened?
ReplyDeleteSolarCity (SCTY) Urges Congress to Pass Legislation That Includes Extension of Investment Tax Credit for Solar
DeleteYou know I did it right?
ReplyDeleteSold 1/2 ENPH at 3.20 for +18%
Sold 1/2 SEDG at 25.50 for +41%
Sold about 10% more ENPH at 3.15 +28%.
DeleteWow, sold all now at 4.00 Damn, I should have been more patient.
DeleteQuick math. I left $30K on the table. Bummer.
DeleteYou need to start spilling the info you have about how many systems are being installed and how they're actually impacting electric bills. My guess is they might replace an electric water heater, which is actually a big expense. Gas water heater not near as much but not everyone has natty plumbed to their home.
DeleteSold all SEGE as well. I can't imagine these don't pull back some over the next few months.
DeleteNice work. Guess the news of the tax credit extension for solar in the proposed budget is causing either a short squeeze or a bottom - doesn't matter either way as long as it works!
DeleteI saw an air pressure storage tank thing that looked promising, bypassing the chemical battery by using the energy to pressurize a tank to several thousand psi then release that potential energy back through a mechanical generator.
DeleteSeem like a possible way to avoid the entire battery storage issue that still isn't satisfactorily resolved. Not sure if electric panels is the way to go with that as opposed to heating water or something like that but making electricity with solar capture is less difficult compared to boiling water, no?
The budget bill is supposedly more stimulative by a good amount, enuff to offset a small rate hike.
ReplyDeletePharma - I think the story here is drugs in US are more expensive due to the middle man gouging, he makes as much or in some cases more than the manufacturer?
ReplyDeleteFollowing this VRX subject, it bothers me the CEO dumped a huge quantity of shares recently, why would he do that to Ackman if he was confident?
Does it make sense KCLI is up? What was the exchange price again?
ReplyDelete$52.50.
DeleteI think there were probably some people who were cautious about the vote, but now that it has passed, are buying at $51.20 to make a quick $1.30 * 249 or $323 in a couple days.
It's still possible to participate? New to this concept....
DeleteMHRC- That was a Cramer fav.
ReplyDeleteOh wow, ouch! Cramer I'm told knows pharma well but other stuff, well... there ya go, debt holders own it now like PAL?
DeleteBAS - This one is loaded with debt, not sure what management was thinking they certainly were anticipating Saudi Arabia would pull the plug.... Not a question of if but when considering they always have.
Refiners still appear week. Product backing up in the system or technical pullback to support?
ReplyDeleteSPH - Okay, I nibbled on some of this for the divy.... A rotten offensive odor thing no doubt. Save me from myself.
ReplyDeleteBXE - Never disappoints shorts.
ReplyDeleteMTW - You'd think if fiscal stimulus has any weight MTW should respond but no... I dunno, reminds me of the SIRI voice recognition thing with NUAN but I lost track of that including if there were splits, etc..
ReplyDeleteTrumps attempt to halt an offshore wind farm fails, now his resort will have a nice view of windmills?
ReplyDeleteBRS - I hear offshore oil exploration is a commitment. Not sure how big oil fits into tight fraq oil or the export ban?
ReplyDeleteBXE - Why should I think this isn't going to zero, gimme a clue....
ReplyDeleteChris Christy - This guy is master creator of log jams.
ReplyDeleteHe literally log jams aisles
DeleteXYL - I bet these guys get another water treatment contract from Baltimore using their methol alcohol treatment system. Not sure if it's proprietary or not. I could see this propagating to all large cities and the Mississippi river, removing nitrogen from effluent is pretty important IMO.
ReplyDeleteI don't like insider sales of this magnitude though, doesn't instill my confidence.
EYES - Must be a solar energy play?
ReplyDeleteCP, the KCLI reverse/forward split takes place at 6:00 pm tonight, so still can take advantage of this. Less upside as risk is reduced as the formal announcement has been made, but a guaranteed return now (well, I guess there always is a chance something comes up, but I'd say 99.99% certainty).
ReplyDelete