Thursday, December 17, 2015

12/17/15 The Staubach Algo



Despite today's selloff, most indexes are merely back to where they closed on Tuesday.  There are still a ton of investors poorly positioned for a year-end rally and eager to buy any dip.  Heading into the final hour, many traders were already pushing away from their desks and hoping to buy into a continuation of the decline on Friday.  They would have missed the spike down in the last 5 minutes of today's session (a brilliant algo move, if you ask me).  Almost as bad as Dallas fans leaving 7 minutes early with the Cowboys down by -10 points, only to learn that Staubach managed to deliver back-to-back touchdowns before the clock ran out!  We may in fact see a gap down on Friday, further trapping longs who bought into the post-FOMC frenzy.  Just as likely, however, would be a gap up that seals the fate of traders who failed to board the last bus. 

Vintage Staubach:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEZKpY8t4EQ
Posted by at

86 comments:

  1. 2nd_aveDecember 17, 2015 at 4:55 PM

    Thanks tof, although whether the last-minute play pays off remains to be seen. You can imagine the patience I needed to exercise the past two days, waiting for a decent pullback.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownDecember 17, 2015 at 8:34 PM

      I'm done guessing the market's near term moves. Just trying to focus on buying really beaten down stocks and waiting for a move back up. Some of them happen quickly (FDX), some slowly (TA), some never at all (M, WMT, etc)

      Delete
  2. ChickenpookieDecember 17, 2015 at 8:14 PM

    ANTM - Climbing out of the hole?

    ReplyDelete
  3. ChickenpookieDecember 17, 2015 at 8:34 PM

    PSA - This thing's been ripping.

    ReplyDelete
  4. ChickenpookieDecember 17, 2015 at 10:27 PM

    SRS - Only down 21% from 52wk high, many many stocks are down much more than that.

    ReplyDelete
  5. MarkWDecember 18, 2015 at 6:58 AM

    BB- Did you comment on KCLI?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Telestar3dDecember 18, 2015 at 7:02 AM

      This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    2. Telestar3dDecember 18, 2015 at 7:02 AM

      yes he did.

      Delete
    3. Telestar3dDecember 18, 2015 at 7:03 AM

      He said, have a cigar boy your going to go far.

      "KCLI is now just trading for the large shareholders. We get the $52.50 per share, so that is no longer supporting the price and doesn't affect us. Pretty much back down to where it was before the announcement.

      All of my KCLI holdings have been taken out of my accounts this morning (you can still see the shares, but they are not available to sell)."

      Delete
  6. MarkWDecember 18, 2015 at 7:00 AM

    NSPH. How does that make sense.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Telestar3dDecember 18, 2015 at 7:04 AM

    AGO, let it go at 26.67 figure its OP EX which is jigging it.

    bid in lower

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Telestar3dDecember 18, 2015 at 7:06 AM

      no, its this

      The deadline had previously been extended to yesterday, but it's been moved again to today to give the power utility, its creditors, and monoline bond insurers more time to talk.A deal was reached three months ago with certain creditors for a haircut, but the monolines like MBIA (NYSE:MBI) and Assured Guaranty (NYSE:AGO) need to come on board for the plan to work.

      Delete
  8. MarkWDecember 18, 2015 at 7:07 AM

    Added to SPY.

    ReplyDelete
  9. MarkWDecember 18, 2015 at 7:11 AM

    KLCI- Thanks Tele.

    ReplyDelete
  10. ChickenpookieDecember 18, 2015 at 7:11 AM

    HXL - I don't see why this one wouldn't have some upside in it.
    ROLL too, possibly?
    MBUU - I have an interest in boats b/c I spend summer weekends attending red cup functions on the lake.

    ReplyDelete
  11. ChickenpookieDecember 18, 2015 at 7:20 AM

    SPWR - Was wondering why red, I don't see how this one can lose given the ITC but is anyone honestly surprised it's being extended?

    ReplyDelete
  12. ChickenpookieDecember 18, 2015 at 7:25 AM

    Flatish market? Not sure but there might be a decent chance I make some monthly income on these dividend stocks without capital depreciation, it's been a long time since I've been able to extract money from this market that keeps on taking....

    ReplyDelete
  13. ChickenpookieDecember 18, 2015 at 7:32 AM

    TOL - Get ready to buy this puppy, not sure how long it takes to find bottom but I recommend they develop smaller cozy homes that don't suck and blow vast amounts of CO2.... With geothermal, preferably.

    Who makes geothermal drilling rigs?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ChickenpookieDecember 18, 2015 at 7:48 AM

      Geothermal heat pumps, that is. WHR I guess makes them and maybe Ingersol Rand or JOY make the drilling equip and Trane, American Standard?
      Both might be a decent entry here, GEOTHERMAL is the way I'd go for an housing efficiency upgrade, might not work well for commercial properties due to the required capacity.

      Delete
  14. 2nd_aveDecember 18, 2015 at 7:35 AM

    We're getting a -230-point shakedown in the DJIA, a 'good thing.' It should help set up a year-end rally. Interestingly, Emerging Markets are flat. Miners are up +2.6%.

    ReplyDelete
  15. ChickenpookieDecember 18, 2015 at 7:51 AM

    The only question is, when BXE runs out of steam. It always does, a given.

    ReplyDelete
  16. UnknownDecember 18, 2015 at 7:54 AM

    Picked up SSO at $61.9 in my in laws account for a potential reversal into year end

    ReplyDelete
  17. ChickenpookieDecember 18, 2015 at 7:56 AM

    NMM - If these guys cut the divy by another 50%, maybe this stock will actually rally?

    ReplyDelete
  18. ChickenpookieDecember 18, 2015 at 8:02 AM

    Omnibus bill - Is it law now?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ChickenpookieDecember 18, 2015 at 9:09 AM

      Thoughts?
      Allows export of oil (Not good for offshore big oil?) Refiners jobs getting squashed?

      Delete
  19. UnknownDecember 18, 2015 at 8:14 AM

    Oil green, biotechs green, China small cap stocks. THere's an element of risk on today that is masked by the market.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ChickenpookieDecember 18, 2015 at 9:12 AM

      Yep, read the fine print in the bill and trade accordingly I guess.

      Delete
  20. UnknownDecember 18, 2015 at 9:02 AM

    Best looking chart I've found in a while: WBAI

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownDecember 18, 2015 at 9:03 AM

      Looks very bullish but also very easy to manage the risk

      Delete
  21. ChickenpookieDecember 18, 2015 at 9:48 AM

    Was just thinking of how water vapor from reservoirs and agriculture is another global warming gas...

    "Dams Cause Climate Change, They Are Not Clean Energy" - EcoWatch
    http://ecowatch.com/2014/08/14/dams-not-clean-energy-climate-change/

    Where's our rip your teets off rally?

    ReplyDelete
  22. ChickenpookieDecember 18, 2015 at 10:09 AM

    "I agreed b/c I couldn't allow big oil to win" So this is bullish for small oil then? If yes, seems consistent with the transition to renewables theme and possibly relieves the JNK market rout?

    I don't see anyone actually parsing this for details......

    ReplyDelete
  23. ChickenpookieDecember 18, 2015 at 10:14 AM

    Obama to Ryan - "Thanks for making government work."

    ReplyDelete
  24. ChickenpookieDecember 18, 2015 at 10:18 AM

    SH - Just closed the Tues gap down and left an opening gap from this morning.

    ReplyDelete
  25. ChickenpookieDecember 18, 2015 at 10:23 AM

    So which side of solar sector is the winner here, utility style or rooftop? No observations, comments, etc? Pfff, is this thing on, are you guys paying attention or just made your minds up arbitrarily about how things will be months ago?

    ReplyDelete
  26. ChickenpookieDecember 18, 2015 at 10:47 AM

    "CarMax skids as Q3 results disappoint on weak used car sales." Yep, may as well crush those used cars b/c it's environmentally advantageous to crank out new vehicles, mostly pickups and fuel guzzlers people want since gasoline is cheap into infinity.

    SCHN crushes cars for recycling.

    ReplyDelete
  27. BB CanadaDecember 18, 2015 at 10:52 AM

    T3d,

    AGO got up around $30 the last time Puerto Rico got "solved", so assuming this really is getting this put to bed, we could see some quick upside.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Telestar3dDecember 18, 2015 at 11:16 AM

      Yeah it's the lucky silver $ today as not much is green other than metals. Most banks and insurers down.

      I sold the spike see it stopped at the 50 dma, have a bid in at 25.97, not going to get there will try to pick back up around 26.22 ish if it comes in. AGO has had some 4 and 5 day runs to the up side so this may be the start of one.

      It's a reasonable bet that we lift Monday, but if we break 1998 SPX cash, I'd be very nervous even though we should have strong seasonality here.

      Delete
    2. Telestar3dDecember 18, 2015 at 11:23 AM

      KCLI, is it a buy?

      Delete
  28. ChickenpookieDecember 18, 2015 at 10:53 AM

    GEVO/PSEC/EVA - So no sugar for biofuels, eh? SGG isn't down.

    ReplyDelete
  29. MarkWDecember 18, 2015 at 11:51 AM

    KCLI- Holly Chit!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. MarkWDecember 18, 2015 at 11:52 AM

      40.09 is the previous low.

      Delete
    2. ChickenpookieDecember 18, 2015 at 11:58 AM

      There's a delist notice, part of the agreement. What happens if you buy before this happens then what's that investment worth and how can you possibly sell it?

      I dunno but it's interesting.

      Delete
    3. ChickenpookieDecember 18, 2015 at 12:02 PM

      Maybe we should look for other co's that have cash and majority inside ownership?

      Delete
    4. ChickenpookieDecember 18, 2015 at 12:11 PM

      My broker won't allow me to place a trade on this. Theoretically it's worth zero as it trades though, wouldn't you think?

      Delete
    5. ChickenpookieDecember 18, 2015 at 12:32 PM

      I can't imagine they can reach fewer than 300 shareholders for more than an instant if the stock is still trading? Still, the stock isn't a bargain if it trades at book, right? And there's the matter of a $31M charge to save the cost of less than $1M/year it's gonna take 31 years to recover?

      "The aim is to reduce the number of shareholders to fewer than 300, which will allow Kansas City Life to deregister its stock. More important, company officials said, going private will save the time and expense of filing reports with the Securities and Exchange Commission and complying with the Sarbanes-Oxley Act.

      In SEC filings, the company estimated that it would save $850,000 a year by going private, not including executive and administrative time spent complying with requirements of publicly traded companies.

      The company said in a release that it plans to make the reverse stock split effective 6 p.m. Wednesday. One minute later, the company will do a forward stock split, converting each share to 250 shares.

      Kansas City Life then would have to file with the SEC to deregister its stock, which would take effect 90 days afterward."

      Delete
    6. BB CanadaDecember 18, 2015 at 12:38 PM

      This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
  30. ChickenpookieDecember 18, 2015 at 11:56 AM

    Finish this sentence: Grab the bull by the _____.

    ReplyDelete
  31. MarkWDecember 18, 2015 at 12:31 PM

    KCLI- I was able to place an order. Pulled it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. MarkWDecember 18, 2015 at 12:32 PM

      S2 is 40.73.

      Delete
    2. ChickenpookieDecember 18, 2015 at 12:34 PM

      Then you could buy a single share and watch it trade for the next 89 days?

      Delete
    3. BB CanadaDecember 18, 2015 at 12:39 PM

      I can still buy KCLI. Can't sell my previous shares of course.

      KCLI will still be trading in the future, but I believe on the OTC Market. Not sure if the symbol will change.

      In hindsight, we should have shorted KCLI the day the deal closed to catch fall from $51 to $44. It was obvious, again in hindsight, that there was no upside in the price after the buyback came off and a good chance it would fall back to pre-buyback levels.

      Delete
    4. BB CanadaDecember 18, 2015 at 12:41 PM

      Hard to know how KCLI will trade going forward though as likely many funds will not be able to own, so I am staying away.

      NWLI is a better quality life insurer at cheaper metrics than KCLI, so if you want a cheap, small life insurer, I'd pick that one. Knock is the tiny dividend and no share buyback.

      Delete
    5. ChickenpookieDecember 18, 2015 at 1:10 PM

      Does life insurance do well with a flattening yield curve?

      Delete
  32. 2nd_aveDecember 18, 2015 at 12:31 PM

    Nice divergences between US and international indexes:

    (a) DJIA -323 points (-1.85%). SPX (S&P500) -1.46%.
    (b) Outside the US? VGK (Europe) -1%. EEM (emerging markets) -0.4%. FXI (China 'H' Shares) +1%. CAF (China 'A' Shares) +1.43%.
    (c) GDX (miners) +3.1%.

    I may opt to add long exposure in US stocks at the close.

    ReplyDelete
  33. ChickenpookieDecember 18, 2015 at 1:03 PM

    Dow down 365 points, one per each day of year?

    ReplyDelete
  34. BB CanadaDecember 18, 2015 at 1:08 PM

    Still watching IBB. Think the real downdraft is next year and it could be a 50%+ one.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UnknownDecember 18, 2015 at 2:43 PM

      I agree with this. I'm looking at XBI though. I'm waiting for a move to a RSI(14) of 70 and then I will buy LABD again

      Delete
  35. ChickenpookieDecember 18, 2015 at 1:17 PM

    FAS - Looks like banks rally off a flat yield curve. Or, is this the beginning of the illusive TOG?

    ReplyDelete
  36. ChickenpookieDecember 18, 2015 at 1:34 PM

    AMSC - Wondering if GE intends on buying the wind assets?

    "Jeff Immelt commented in the Q&A:

    On the climates update, I would say as things are really hard to predict, but one thing I would say ... it's going to be gas and wind world."

    ReplyDelete
  37. ChickenpookieDecember 18, 2015 at 1:36 PM

    BWEN - Barely scratched today.

    ReplyDelete
  38. ChickenpookieDecember 18, 2015 at 2:35 PM

    Climate watchers should be talking about agriculture, don't you think?
    http://ecowatch.com/2015/12/18/europes-dirty-secret-almeria-spain/

    ReplyDelete
  39. UnknownDecember 18, 2015 at 2:53 PM

    Martin Shkreli live on Youtube:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YCB6AybM4Cs&feature=em-lbcastemail-np%3C/p%3E

    ReplyDelete
  40. Telestar3dDecember 18, 2015 at 2:54 PM

    picked up WYNN on close

    ReplyDelete
  41. UnknownDecember 18, 2015 at 3:00 PM

    We're definitely starting to see divergences for gold miners vs gold. This is what I've been thinking about for a while now as an opportunity that is going to come up. Still thinking about it but I think we will see some significant divergences as miners are just so beaten up

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. MarkWDecember 18, 2015 at 3:09 PM

      Well I certainly got diverged out of some cash today, but did much better than the market.

      Delete
    2. UnknownDecember 18, 2015 at 5:37 PM

      Bita helped me a lot today

      Delete
    3. ChickenpookieDecember 19, 2015 at 7:27 AM

      Nice job on BITA, I couldn't do it. Of course you knew trouble was coming for TA when I said I liked it but sheesh, it can't go much lower UNLESS something's very wrong?

      Delete
  42. BB CanadaDecember 18, 2015 at 4:47 PM

    KCLI delisting from NASDAQ on Dec. 31, will be trading on OTC Markets Jan. 4, same symbol

    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/54473/000101410815000312/kcli-ex991.htm

    ReplyDelete
  43. ChickenpookieDecember 18, 2015 at 4:50 PM

    RBA - This baby's got the volume.

    ReplyDelete
  44. ChickenpookieDecember 18, 2015 at 8:00 PM

    AMZN will lease 20 727 aircraft... I think they said 727 model, who has them for lease?

    ReplyDelete
  45. ChickenpookieDecember 19, 2015 at 7:20 AM

    RBY - A 60% haircut (-$0.06) yesterday.

    ReplyDelete
  46. ChickenpookieDecember 19, 2015 at 7:42 AM

    CYD - Looks like a $31m stake. "According to a 13D filing, Shah Capital Management, overseen by Himanshu H. Shah, owns 3.24 million shares of China Yuchai International Limited (NYSE:CYD), including stock options to buy 200,000 shares. This compares with the 2.85 million-share position revealed by Shah Capital through its latest 13F filing. The freshly-upped stake accounts for 8.31% of the company’s outstanding common stock."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ChickenpookieDecember 19, 2015 at 7:46 AM

      Pays a dividend which doesn't exceed earnings, BXE doesn't come close to this best I can tell.

      Delete
  47. ChickenpookieDecember 19, 2015 at 7:57 AM

    GLRE - Amazing, the performance of what I'm sure is a well thought out plan. These guys know infinitely more than I do, that's for sure.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ChickenpookieDecember 19, 2015 at 8:01 AM

      Do you think maybe the market knows something about SUNE that Einhorn didn't or maybe still doesn't know? Skeletons can be buried incredibly deep.

      Delete
  48. ChickenpookieDecember 19, 2015 at 8:12 AM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  49. ChickenpookieDecember 19, 2015 at 9:02 AM

    URG - Wow, look at that volume spike.

    ReplyDelete
  50. ChickenpookieDecember 19, 2015 at 9:21 AM

    China refuses to cut refined fuel prices as oil plummets in attempt to stem demand growth.

    "Gasoline demand in the country increased 10.4 percent in the first 10 months of the year from the same period of 2014, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency."

    ReplyDelete
  51. 2nd_aveDecember 19, 2015 at 2:58 PM

    new post

    I'll take the post down after you've all had a chance to read it. I don't want to violate any copyright laws.

    ReplyDelete
  52. ChickenpookieDecember 19, 2015 at 8:06 PM

    OUTR - Substantially cheaper this week than last, not sure why book is negative perhaps bonds or preferred shares?

    ReplyDelete
  53. ChickenpookieDecember 19, 2015 at 8:35 PM

    CBI - Wonder what happened, thought there was a buyout?

    ReplyDelete
  54. ChickenpookieDecember 19, 2015 at 9:06 PM

    NBR - Weren't we considering this one not so long ago but at a higher price? Just trying to recall.

    ReplyDelete

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