DJIA gaps up +157 points to 17152 at the open. SPX +0.9% to 2008. RSX (Russia) +2.48%, Oil +2%, FXI (China ‘H’
Shares) +2.4%, EEM (emerging markets) +1.56%.
European bourses reverse all of Thursday’s losses and then some. The Chinese Yuan soars +0.75%. VT (the total world stock market) +1.43%.
As usual, what counts will be the close.
CP,
ReplyDeletewith commodity companies like TCK, the general rule is you buy when p/e's are high or negative and sell when they are low, like sub-10. Valuations aren't so important as the commodity trend.
Yeah, I dunno, took it back off my short list a few months back when we discussed it didn't sound promising as if it had topped and the commodities super cycle was done.
DeleteBear case seems to be getting weaker and weaker with Euro-QE and improving US job market.
ReplyDeleteCan make the case for a China black swan I guess. The valuation issue Mike pointed out is more of a headwind than a bear market causer.
Went through my stocks again last night and still looking for a +20% - +25% year.
I'm going to Vancouver, see you guys later! Or maybe get a break in a San Jose slum?
ReplyDelete"The AVERAGE 2BR apartment in Vancouver is now $4,600 a month."
This might convert the local government into the employment growth engine due to increased home prices translates to additional tax revenue. Everyone needs to realize China doesn't buy anything it can't make on it's own, but they can't make Canadian real estate thus it's a good safe haven. IOW, screw the Canadian citizen and price him out of the market so rich Chinese can have a place to park money.
DeleteFunny thing is I don't get why the Canadian dollar fell while all this money was flooding into Canada, doesn't sound like a good long term solution for Canadians to have their real estate run higher while jobs are disappearing.
Surely the US also has this issue, I heard though Canadians have been buying into the US real estate market and I suspect they intend to relocate to somewhere it doesn't rain out of your armpits constantly.
You see Canadians on Rt.95 heading to Florida all winter long, they go there to avoid freezing their arses off.
I can't imagine an entire winter in Canada, they'd have to pay me extra. Buffalo was bad enough and where I currently am is the extreme northern limit for me.
Canadian dollar trades pretty much in line with the price of oil as Canada is perceived as a commodity country. The Vancouver real estate issues are more of a local concern.
DeleteCanadians love to get away in the winter. When I was in Dominican last week, way more Canadians than Americans (even with our 1/10th population).
SPY above what I use as MA's.
ReplyDeleteSell signal or all-in?
DeleteVRX looks interesting.
ReplyDeletelong some, perhaps has a chance to close to 50 dma
Was looking at TEVA this morning - figure it is safer to play generics where political risk should be less. If you believe the analysts, trades at a sub-10 fwd p/e which is very low for them.
DeleteHaven't checked to see if they finally announced earnings, last I know there was a delay and restatement. CEO offed a ton of shares so that smell kept me away and the guy looks like he could leave a permanent ring in any bathtub.
DeleteMaybe the storm has passed.
JAZZ is picking up.
BMY - I hear there's a cancer treatment opportunity, platinum based drugs?
Good news here is golf courses are starting to open today, so will be playing this afternoon! This is really early for us, probably a month ahead of normal.
ReplyDeleteBought some JCOM today at $58.3
ReplyDeleteThese guys own eFax and eVoice which allows you to receive faxes and voice mails by email, amongst other things. Citron bashed them yesterday. It trades at 11x EPS and 13x FCF. They've been using their cash flow to get into new businesses the past few years and diversify.
DeleteTook it off at $58.9
DeleteCG - I don't recall settling for a sub 10% dividend but I'll let it ride and see if these guys have an inkling about what they're doing.... Surely they're smarter than me, perhaps they're responsible for importing Chinese laundry to Vancouver?
ReplyDeleteTurns out the div was cut after I signed up but I averaged down near the lows which explains why I'm ahead now. Let's see how well these guys do running their laundrymat...
Deletehttp://htftp.domainbg.com/Kringster/Temp/OSTs/Snatch%20OST%20%5B2001%5D/14%20-%20The%20Specials%20-%20Ghost%20Town.mp3
Potential source for local Trump Steaks, front-run 'em prior to markup:
ReplyDelete540-364-1094
Cattle are grazed on our 100-acre farm. They have been born and raised on the farm and have not been given any hormones. For the first 20 months they are raised on grass and then finished on feed corn and hay. The beef has a nice, rich flavor.
Grass-Fed, Grain-Finished Black Angus Beef by the 1/8, 1/4, 1/2 and Whole Steer
Casey Jones You'd Better Watch Your Speed
ReplyDelete"Goldman Turns Positive On Oil Stocks"
Okay, so Draghi's move "should not cause rates to lift, expect the opposite"....
ReplyDeleteHa,ha...
ReplyDeletehttp://4e73.vd.aclst.com/dl.php/Nt_zVk8j4wY/How+Long+%28Will+Interest+Rates+Stay+Low%29.mp3?video_id=Nt_zVk8j4wY&t=TnRfelZrOGo0d1ktMzUxNzE1MjY4Ny0xNDU3NzIwMTE2LTkyMDUyOA%3D%3D&exp=14-03-2016&s=fa889106ed98fff6da9c4de712847eb5
Canadian citizens welcoming immigration:
ReplyDelete“There’s still a lot of other questions about whether we’re in a position to take full advantage of the enthusiasm of Canadians to respond to refugees,”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-seeks-to-bring-more-than-300000-newcomers-this-year/article29069851/
This is probably great news for builders, lumber, home improvement, appliance dry wall, auto sales, everything under the sun including condominium landlords, no?
DeleteCENX - A little soft today, extruded aluminum frames for solar installs taking a breather?
ReplyDeleteBXE - If you prefer low quality no yield debt, have a look at this one.
ReplyDeleteThe 1-month intraday chart of MTL is suggesting that it is ready for another step up. Just bought more of it at $1.85. Still have a sell stop on it at the previous low of $1.70.
ReplyDeleteWhy is UNG going up so slowly? Don't the shorts ever panic on this one?
ReplyDeleteAfter 6-7 years of downside, I don't think they'll panic.
DeleteIn that case, we'll get a slow climb of the wall of worry?
DeleteActually, the calculations that I performed for 3X ultra ETFs a while ago show that they will rise more (because of compounding) if the underlying ETF rises gradually from 6 to 8 than if that ETF were to jump from 6 to 8 in one day. So I am fine with the slow climb. :)
DeleteNat Gas is up 16% in a week
DeleteYep, RUN's battery is ENPH's.
ReplyDeleteGetting juiced up or pureed?
DeleteSo, the last two years was just a 'rest' hun?
ReplyDeletelooks like it
DeleteWas such a strong move off the Oct, 2011 moves. Almost a double in a little over 2 years on the main indexes, so makes sense we've had a consolidation period before the next move higher.
DeleteI still don't see how we have a big move out of this congestion phase with earnings at $106. Let's say they improve to $115 this year (despite expected drop of 8% for Q1). 17 times that is 1,955. 18 times that is 2,070.
DeleteDunno, is Hilary trying to say Bernie can't accomplish anything b/c she feels (believes) herself it's impossible? Is this a way of managing a decline?
DeleteThomson Reuters has 2016 earnings as $120.95, so fwd p/e = 16.5 (http://fundamentalis.com/?p=5752)
DeleteNot really cheap either, but somewhat better.
But I do think you can justify paying more for stocks with rates so low.
I think the question really comes down to: would you rather own a stock like JNJ at p/e = 20, fwd p/e = 15, yield=2.8% or a 10 year Government Bond at 1.98%? JNJ is rated AAA. I think people buy this over treasuries.
VRX sold out, earnings Monday am, gut so good, but do not want to chance.
ReplyDelete2nd - Great calls on the market. The meltup is in full effect. I wish I got aggressive yesterday when TNA was at $49.5. I stared at it for a while but passed.
ReplyDeleteI only picked up a little UGAZ at $0.90 after hours.
I meant to add I picked up F today at $13.28. The valuation is really hard to ignore at 6.7x EPS and 5.8x FCF with a 4.5% yield.
ReplyDeleteHere's another way to look at it. Take a look at: https://finance.yahoo.com/quotes/AAPL,AXP,BA,CAT,CSCO,CVX,DD,DIS,GE,GS,HD,IBM,INTC,JNJ,JPM,KO,MCD,MMM,MRK,MSFT,NKE,PFE,PG,TRV,UNH,UTX,V,VZ,WMT,XOM/view/v4
ReplyDeleteThese are the Dow stocks - easier to work with than the S&P 500. I set up a view with p/e and fwd p/e, so hopefully you see this. When I look through this list of stocks, assuming their these are reasonably accurate, their valuations are pretty good. Other than NKE, MCD and maybe CAT, I could see buying any of these stocks at these valuations if I ran big money, given the current economic outlook and interest rate environment.
I completely stay away from stocks like AMZN, FB, TWTR, etc. the super high value guys, so can't really comment on them, so maybe it is stocks like these and healthcare which are driving the market overvaluation.
The other thing to think about Mike is that pretty much all of the value guys are saying stocks are OK to buy. Not great, but that you can find stuff to buy that is pretty good. Buffet on CNBC a couple weeks ago saying they are buying every month. So if the value guys can find good stocks, we should certainly be able to find them with our smaller amounts to invest and the ability to go downmarket.
DeleteMaybe you are right and the broad market struggles due to valuation. And I could easily many of the hotshot stocks from the last couple of years having a tough time going forward, but the cheap stocks doing very well.
I made a list of a few sub 12 p/e and sub 14 FCF big caps and there are quite a few. stocks like
DeleteSIEGY
IBM
INTC
F
GM
BAC
JPM
UAL
AAL
FFIV
AMCX
AMGN
Then smaller caps I see stocks like JCOM, ASPS,
"Nat Gas is up 16% in a week"
ReplyDeleteUNG was down 30% in February, so a return to the end of January price would imply a further 32% upside from today's close.
Great job, man! :)
DeleteF-----' A.
DeleteSWFT - I hear there's an investigation.
ReplyDeleteJNK - Filled the gap down.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeleteTraffic wall to wall today in town, no recession here that I see.
ReplyDelete