Global markets refuse to back down. All thirty Dow stocks are green, driving the DJIA to within ten points of 17,800 earlier in the day. ASHR (China 'A' Shares) up another +3.8%. RSX (Russia) +1.42% on a recovery in crude prices. EEM (emerging markets ) +1.3%, doubling its week-to-date gain to +2.7%.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nvlTJrNJ5lA
Did some rearrangement of my portfolio today. The AEZS is not working, so I sold it at a small loss. The MTL is also not going up, but it is also not going down, and with SLX making new highs today, there is still a good chance that MTL will follow. So I bought a little more MTL today at 1.78. Finally, I think the oil stocks have pulled back sufficiently, so I bought more WTI at 3.26.
ReplyDeleteTaking a break for a little bit until we get some oversold readings in stuff I like on hourly charts. Sitting at +15% YTD and feel like I'm in a good position to be picky now.
ReplyDeleteJesse posted this speech by Buffett from 1999...great speech:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvveZr0D_9Y
Picked up some MTCH after hours again. I think this company has a great business model and the chance to grow far faster than the market at a lower multiple
ReplyDeleteGood article from James Paulsen, who has been spot on with this market the entire way:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.wellscap.com/docs/emp/20160321.pdf
He was bullish for pretty much the entire run from 2009 and started getting cautious at the end of 2014 and all through 2015. He called the Feb bottom this year and has been calling for a range bound market going forward, with 6% or so total returns (including divs) until the end of the bull. That's about 100 pts on the S&P per year. I think this makes sense.
Been looking at the bigger pharma / biotechs. For value, AMGN, PFE, MRK and GILD look pretty solid. All of these companies really piled on the debt, though, which makes me less interested in them. They all have less than 4% of market cap in net cash (ie cash + cash equiv less LT debt).
ReplyDeleteHere's a look:
AMGN
P/E 13.82
P/FCF 13.22
Yield 2.68%
PFE
P/E 13.13
P/FCF 14.11
Yield 3.99%
MRK
P/E 14.38
P/FCF 13.26
Yield 3.46%
GILD
P/E 7.52
P/FCF 6.42
Yield 1.87%
Of all of these I'd probably go with AMGN and GILD.
DeleteWas thinking about TEVA - they are a leader in Generics, with a couple profitable name brand drugs, are pretty much cheaper than they've ever been. They are doing a major acquisition and there are pushes by the healthcare providers and government to push more towards generics.
DeleteFWD p/e = 8.8
p/fcf < 10
Brent - ESRX is definitely interesting. However, I don't like the amount of debt they have piled on in recent years. Just increases their risk profile in the long run. However, it might mean nothing because their cash flow is so strong. It's a cheap stock no doubt. Did you buy?
ReplyDeleteNo, they are in a battle with their largest customer, Anthem, which does about 16% of their revenue and Anthem is suing them. Anthem also bought somebody who does prescription management internally and their contract ends in 2019, so the concern is that they pull this business. Some say this is priced into stocks and it probably is. I think the big risk is the health insurers continue to consolidate, and they pull business internally from ESRX just leaving ESRX with the small guys.
DeleteI like situations like this where a stock pulls back on a specific issue, as long as that issue is likely to be resolved. But my knowledge is really weak in healthcare as it is mostly government run up here, so not sure what is likely to happen.
Gotcha. Thanks for the input. TEVA looks interesting. I know this space fairly well as I once made some money in Par Pharma which I believe was bought out by TEVA eventually.
DeleteLet me know if you buy TEVA - it's the type of stock I'd like to buy, as long as I'm not missing something.
DeleteWouldn't be surprised to see a sharp 2-4% pullback out of nowhere to shake out people chasing. I saw some guy reaching to buy TNA after hours. He kept putting in bids of 4-5k shares about $0.20 above the closing price while SPY was down after hours. Seemed to me like either panic short covering or panic buying.
ReplyDeleteCanada 3rd best performing major market this year behind Brazil and just behind Russia - https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/
ReplyDeleteActually market up 4% and CDN$ up 6% giving EWC 10% return.
Good economic stats this morning as well: "Canada’s economy grew by a much larger-than-expected 0.6 per cent in January, Statistics Canada data indicated on Thursday, reducing the odds that the Bank of Canada will need to cut interest rates further this year."
Long edz at 34.38
ReplyDeleteDB - It's getting close to time to buy this one but wish I knew more of the finer detail b/c I feel don't like overpaying again. FMD/EROS/BXE/SVM/etc....
ReplyDeleteUgh FMD / EROS. Don't remind me!
DeleteUAMY - Correct me if I'm wrong and I do think antimony is worth considering due to it's uses but the recent buyer paid considerably more than market cap so seems like misleading info.
ReplyDeleteI see a lot of misleading info, there's more of that than anything trustworthy.
I can list reasons to like and dislike this one but won't unless asked.
DeleteESRX
ReplyDeleteBY Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
— 6:23 AM ET 03/23/2016
6:23 ET - While Walgreens' (WBA) cooperation-agreement announced last week with UnitedHealth's (UNH) pharmacy-benefits manager was seen by at least some to signal the drugstore operator won't pursue buying its own PBM, future developments involving Express Scripts (ESRX) could well change that. A redacted version of Anthem's (ANTM) lawsuit of ESRX became accessible yesterday, and Leerink's ultimate takeaway is the company and some shareholders "are underestimating ANTM's desire and willingness to walk away from their contract," which runs until 2019. If ANTM and soon-to-be-acquired Cigna (CI) move their PBM effort in-house, possibly sending ESRX shares "down significantly," could result in WBA " aggressively" pursuing a takeover of ESRX, says the investment bank. It cuts its ESRX price target to $65; shares have skidded 23% this year to $67.52. (kevin.kingsbury@wsj.com; @kevinkingsbury)
Tough to buy on day like this but long gnca
ReplyDeleteThis is trading at an equity value of $50 million after backing out cash of $95m. Their drug is addressing a massive market > $1b in annual revs. They have 2.5 yrs of cash. I think it's a good speculation and the volume is huge which is typically indicative of more room to run
DeleteTEVA
ReplyDeletehttp://marketrealist.com/2016/03/teva-pharmaceuticals-compare-peers-valuation/
I sold edz at break even after averaging down
ReplyDeleteStarter position in CS
ReplyDeleteIf Europe follows our path and QE reignites their economy and then rates eventually gradually normalize, then banks like CS and DB and ING are probably very good longer term plays. Sentiment is so horrible. Look at the 18-24 month returns of BAC / JPM / C from their 2011 lows > 200% in some cases.
DeleteTook MTCH off the table.
ReplyDeleteSLV might have recently made a bottom at $14.50, so working with that assumption, I just bought some 3X shares (USLV). Will place a stop just below the recent bottom.
ReplyDelete300% in about a month
ReplyDeleteBTU corp 6.5% Sep15'20
of course you really needed a set?
IBCID77887503
Gonna hold GNCA overnight. Crazy.
ReplyDeleteGenital Herpes WOW, last I looked it was +30%. Crazy indeed.
DeleteIt's a once a year pill. Cowen came out with a $40 price target today.
Deletehaha what a headline:
Delete"Genocea Breaks Out With Very Positive Mid-Stage Results"
Haha - that is a good one!
DeleteEnded up taking the 30% gain after hours at 6.8
DeleteEnd of Q1 and ran my stats and still down 5.6%. Would be up 1.1% in US$, but the CDN dollar is rocking against the US and hurting my results. Oh well, last year the currency helped and it all nets out in the end.
ReplyDeleteIt is my high overweight financials which is hurting my results this year. They are pretty much all down, some quite a lot. I still think these work out, but maybe this is the year I underperform. My last year of underperformance was 2008, so maybe I'm due.
Still not horrible given the currency exchange.
DeletePretty much in line with the S&P. I'm good with that. I think my theory about the job market and rates will play out and I will outperform when that does. In the meantime, if I can match the market, but underperform due to currency, not a big deal really.
DeleteWell you did say you were anticipating a rebound for the Canadian dollar. I guess that's a commodity event.
DeleteTBT is sinking this morning.
The hard part is the Canadian stock market is very thin after the commodity stocks and financials, so we are pretty much forced to buy US stocks for a lot of other industries. I take this into account when investing and move more to the US when the US$ is down, but could never see a situation where I held no US$.
DeleteNot a whole lot of stuff is up, mostly down. Correct me if I'm wrong but data is considered strong?
ReplyDeleteYou know the stock market, sometimes good news if good and sometimes bad news is good.
DeleteSeems like the job numbers were good, but the oil deal to hold production flat is falling apart.
ISM Manufacturing is up, which is good news for the economy but could be considered bad news for the market as it means the Fed raises rates earlier.
"the oil deal to hold production flat is falling apart"
DeleteI wasn't aware of this, thus BRENT spread probably is moving refiner and shale producer negative.
Rate raise should not be pushing TLT up though?
I wonder if any insurance companies are heavy into water, alternative energy or infrastructure bonds?
Right re TLT.
DeleteDon't know about the insurance companies.
SUNE - Thought this was an alternative energy play with a tailwind from climate change?
ReplyDeleteMET - This one is probably worth consideration
If you want to be bearish...
ReplyDeleteNot since last spring has the S&P 500 index marked a new 52-week high, which is an unusually long stretch, particularly within a bull market, according to one technical analyst.
The index last hit a new high in May, making this stretch of 10 months and counting the longest since 2009.
In the past 50 years, there have been a total of 11 streaks during which the S&P 500 index failed to make a new high for at least 10 months. Eight of those occurred during bear markets, Mr. Krinsky said.
It's difficult to discount the bear case, I'm trying to comprehend what makes them wrong.
DeleteContrast this with your technical breakdown reference, it's difficult to dispute facts?
Delete"Boeing laying off 8,000 and BlackRock 400 – is one of the early signs of a turning point?"
The world has changed since the US consumer is no longer being tempted into liar loans and ATM housing?
The 'jobs report' was released this morning. The DJIA plunged -117 points at the open, then reversed quickly and now +11. Same old same old.
ReplyDeleteThat's what I'm thinking, can't understand the response.
DeleteTERP is ripping: "TerraForm Power (TERP) Stock Climbs as David Tepper Boosts Stake"
ReplyDeleteI mean come on man, why if there's so much concern over climate change aren't these alternative energy companies ripping tits off?
DeleteThere's what people say and what people do - look at the environmental costs of these big global warning conferences.
DeleteApril been the best month of the year for the last 10 years:
ReplyDeletehttp://lplresearch.com/2016/04/01/welcome-to-april-the-best-month-for-equities-over-the-past-10-years/
Strangely for me personally, it's been my 2nd worst month and only positive 5 of the last 10 years.
Picked up UAL at $56.5 and MTCH at $11.4 today. Tried GNCA again but lost money on it. Almost loaded up on TNA right at the open but chickened out.
ReplyDeleteDoubled down on USLV just now, but ready to bail out if this morning's lows are taken out.
ReplyDeleteIt's looking better this morning.
DeleteBrent - I haven't had a chance to look more into TEVA. Do you know why estimated earnings are so much higher than EPS on Gurufocus:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=TEVA+Analyst+Estimates
vs
http://www.gurufocus.com/financials/TEVA
Non- GAAP earnings were $5.46 in 2015.
DeleteI've looked at a few reports and they all are forecasting earnings in the $5.50 range for 2016. Some of the non-GAAP adjustments make sense, but some I was a bit skeptical on - I want to look into more before buying.
Added to SEDG at the open at 24.20ish. Lagging today bothers me though. Full position now.
ReplyDeleteNSM - Have a look, thoughts?
ReplyDeleteLooks great, chart wise. Easy to manage
DeleteHave you looked at asps? That one intrigues me more
DeleteI'm going to buy a little Twtr. I think it's time again
ReplyDeleteHmmmm
DeleteI'll have to wait. Up to much already this am.
DeleteWow. I stepped away after I bought at $16.14. Assumed I would be down.
DeleteThe beaten down POS's have all rallied hard this year. Nothing is more of a POS than TWTR right?
Really heavy volume in TWTR. 7 Million shares already
DeleteSo the total must be $1 Billion.....
ReplyDelete"Hyundai Merchant Marine is selling its stake in the Busan New Port in an effort to stave off bankruptcy ahead of this year’s maturation of debts valued at 382 billion South Korean won ($334 million) with another 606 billion won due in 2017"
TA - No summer travel plans aside from TSLA owners.
ReplyDeleteSold TWTR after hours at $17.08 avg.
ReplyDeleteI ended up keep 1/3 of my original shares and will trade around the other shares. I think this has bottomed
DeleteVRX - Surplise! "Valeant completes accounting review; finds no new issues"
ReplyDeleteSeems the funk has returned, we should probably be short.
ReplyDeleteAdded to TWTR today.
ReplyDeleteMy thinking is everyone is selling this stock because the stock is not holding it's pre market gains. This is how bottoms are made.
DeleteI think I can see from Hillary's point of view, the first step (low hanging fruit) at controlling climate change should continue concentrating on limiting consumerism by managing down demand for commodities.
ReplyDeleteThe Goldilocks Pullback
ReplyDeleteNice pullbacks in all global indexes this morning. We need one. The best scenario would be a weekly decline (not too big, not too small) followed by a resumption of the rally.
Good conversation on Fast Money today about TWTR. Some guy said he thinks the NFL deal could be a game changer for Twitter in that they may be pivoting to be a live streaming platform that is ultimately more engaging. Would be interesting to see how that transpires. For now I will keep my shares as I do think the stock has bottomed. I think if they sign on another sport for live streaming you could really see a big rally in the stock.
ReplyDeleteThere's no reason to rush probe into Hillary Clinton's email server, says @FBI Director. http://cnn.it/1oA5UYM .
ReplyDeleteWARNING!!!! DON"T READ THIS FAST!
XYL - Well, hopefully this one comes back to me.... There are other water plays though.
ReplyDelete"Twitter is where live events unfold" said NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell in a statement. "There is a massive amount of NFL-related conversation happening on Twitter during our games and tapping into that audience, in addition to our viewers on broadcast and cable, will ensure Thursday Night Football is seen on an unprecedented number of platforms this season."
ReplyDeleteI bet these guys get other sports.
DeleteAnother study showing value stocks (this time based on p/b) very cheap relative to growth. Think it is a question of when, not if this turns around:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.researchaffiliates.com/Our%20Ideas/Insights/Fundamentals/Pages/442_How_Can_Smart_Beta_Go_Horribly_Wrong.aspx
If they took the time to do so today, they would find value is currently cheaper than at any time other than the height of the Nifty Fifty13 (1972–73), the tech bubble (1998–2003), and the global financial crisis (2008–09).
wow AGN CEO said he would be interested in buying Bausch & Lomb
ReplyDeleteI grabbed a little VRX at $30.55 today just in case this runs on this news today. I also bought BIIB earlier at $267.5 on potential for investors scrambling to it after the AGN deal fell through (PFE was rumored to be interested in BIIB before the AGN deal). Both are probably day trades
DeletePicked up some SEED today as well at $1.73. Very small position. Hoping for follow through from the DD news yesterday.
ReplyDeleteLong UAL at 54.93
ReplyDeleteStill keep thinking IBB has another down leg coming. Between high valuations and the political pressure on medicines, especially if Hillary wins which it look like, I think these could go down quite a ways.
ReplyDeleteTiming shorts is always hard, but I'm keeping it on my watch list for now.
I agree but not yet.
DeleteThere are several undervalued companies in the group as well. I like BIIB and AMGN. Your TEVA looks good too.
DeleteI ended up taking off UAL at a small profit and TWTR and VRX. Just holding some GNCA and BIIB. This UAL intrigues me though. I'm assuming people are worried about DAL's comments regarding travel after the Brussels attack, but in the big picture that would only have a temporary impact and you still have really low oil which is a huge tailwind for these companies.
ReplyDeleteSold BIIB at $278.3. Will probably buy back in if it dips into the close as I think this rally extends a few days.
ReplyDeleteLong LABD at $38.8
ReplyDeleteSold at $39.2. Hoping for a dip into the close in BIIB but doubt it happens now.
DeleteFHCO, the female condom company, down over 20% today on the announcement of a merger with a private company.
ReplyDeleteThinking about buying in, but you often get a 2nd or 3rd down day.
The DJIA closed off -135 points on Tuesday, then declined another -60 points this morning for a -195-point pullback before recovering to its current +85-point gain. That may be it for the pullback.
ReplyDeleteCrude oil currently +5.02%.
Surprisingly good inventory numbers on oil. Maybe it is just a world rebalancing now that the US can export, but either way is a good sign for the energy market and the broad economy.
DeleteTough to read much into these weekly reports.
DeleteI ended up buying 5% positions in a bunch of high short interest stocks:
ReplyDeleteANET
ANF
JD
JWN
MYGN
QUNR
UBNT
VMW
ZG
Small business lending:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.equipmentfa.com/news/5352/u-s-small-business-lending-increases-sharply-paynet
11/16/15 the last time SPX closed near lows and down 1%, then up 1% and near highs. +1.6% 5 days later and +2.4% 10 days later back then.
ReplyDeleteWYNN - This damn thing has doubled....
ReplyDeleteYeah crazy man.
DeleteDoes anybody know when the debt clock times out and SHTF?
ReplyDeleteI ended up selling all of my positions right on the open. Was play for a follow through day but didn't get it. Bought back into BIIB at $276
ReplyDeleteSure seems like things are rolling over across the board if you look at European banks, EEM, XLE, airlines, IYT, etc. Tough call here. Kind of in no man's land.
ReplyDeleteTook off BIIB at a loss. Standing on the sidelines and letting this downturn pass.
ReplyDeleteLong LABD at $37.8
ReplyDeleteSold it at a small loss. Just gonna stay in cash. Not a great sign that the above sectors are rolling over pretty hard.
DeleteIt looks like Mama Bear returned last night, sending global indexes down across the board. DJIA -190 points heading into the final hour. I think it's housecleaning ahead of the next advance!
ReplyDeleteA lot of stocks and markets are getting into resistance areas from last year, and with the recent fast move upwards, people will be quick to sell to protect those profits, so I think what we are seeing now is pretty normal.
ReplyDeleteIdeally, earnings start coming out next week and are better than people are expecting and that drives the market through the resistance up to new highs. I think they will be, a lot because the US dollar has come down in Q1 and energy has been higher.
Yeah doesn't seem to be anything but normal so far. The euro banks and other areas I mentioned before do concern me a little.
Delete"The End Of The Credit Cycle" KRE is well below the 200SMA, who exactly was it insisting financial companies were cheap back when KRE was trading appreciably above the 200SMA?
ReplyDeleteYou?
DeleteIs KRE the doughnut company?
DeleteNo, more along the lines of the "fuckup" on EROS, etc.
DeleteA VSLR guy just made a cold call at my house. The end must be near...
ReplyDeleteHorrible balance sheet
DeleteYahoo invested in creating more intelligent media. But its readers mostly cared about Kim Kardashian’s Ass.
ReplyDeletePretty Much.
Bought 1/2 position in tna after hrs at 54.75
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeleteJPM P/C is 0.21.......
ReplyDelete