(a) The DJIA is headed for three consecutive double-digit gains (currently +212 points @ 17907, and +767 points over the past three days).
(b) The SPX (S&P500), despite dire headline predictions (they'll need to change the definition of the word 'prediction' when applied to market prognostications!) of an imminent -8% drop, is now trading @ 2096.
(c) London's FTSE exchange up another +2.27% to 6504, well above the June 23 (day before Brexit) close of 6338. VGK (Europe) has recovered almost all of the decline due to Brexit.
(d) EEM (emerging markets), FXI (China 'H' Shares), ASHR (China 'A' Shares), RSX (Russia) and VT (total world stock market) are all back to pre-Brexit levels.
(e) EWZ (Brazil) is now @ 3010, a new 2016 high.
How do bears cope? Here's good advice from Dylan:
It ain’t no use to sit and wonder why, babe
It don’t matter, anyhow
An’ it ain’t no use to sit and wonder why, babe
If you don’t know by now
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-Y3KfJs6T0
Experienced traders have learned not to approach the markets from a rational perspective. The 'market' represents the collective decisions of homo sapiens driven by fear and greed. Don't think twice, and you'll be better off!
(b) The SPX (S&P500), despite dire headline predictions (they'll need to change the definition of the word 'prediction' when applied to market prognostications!) of an imminent -8% drop, is now trading @ 2096.
(c) London's FTSE exchange up another +2.27% to 6504, well above the June 23 (day before Brexit) close of 6338. VGK (Europe) has recovered almost all of the decline due to Brexit.
(d) EEM (emerging markets), FXI (China 'H' Shares), ASHR (China 'A' Shares), RSX (Russia) and VT (total world stock market) are all back to pre-Brexit levels.
(e) EWZ (Brazil) is now @ 3010, a new 2016 high.
How do bears cope? Here's good advice from Dylan:
It ain’t no use to sit and wonder why, babe
It don’t matter, anyhow
An’ it ain’t no use to sit and wonder why, babe
If you don’t know by now
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-Y3KfJs6T0
Experienced traders have learned not to approach the markets from a rational perspective. The 'market' represents the collective decisions of homo sapiens driven by fear and greed. Don't think twice, and you'll be better off!
Decided to play a potential momo run in interest rates. Bought TMF today at $116.3. I think there's a chance this space sees a dot com like run in them.
ReplyDeleteTook this off at $118.2.
DeleteTook my euro bank trade off.
ReplyDeletePicked up some PGH at $1.865 avg.
ReplyDeleteThe pullback in the SPX (S&P500) to Monday's intraday low of 1992 represents a 'retrace' of about -38% of the rally off the February lows (recall the significance of Fibonacci numbers in nature, which would certainly include human nature!). In my opinion, a substantial rally is around the corner. How substantial? I'll throw out a range of +15-20%. This would take the SPX up to the 2400-2500 level (which translates into a corresponding rally in the DJIA to 20,700-21,600). Does that seem unlikely? It's actually well within the historical extremes of market mania that follow market panic.
ReplyDeleteWhat gets it there is probably a move in oil to $60
DeleteWhy is XOM near an all time high? It has to be predicting something no?
DeleteToo pessimistic. How about $75-80?
DeleteI would welcome that since I own CHK and PGH
DeleteI think we see a broader improvement in the economy to drive this.
DeleteJob markets are near full employment in the US, so next we should see rising wages and improved housing which are both good for the economy including things and coincidentally rising rates which push up financials helping the overall market.
In the end, we all fail to think big enough. SPX 2600, then.
ReplyDeleteHappy 4th guys!
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qw7e_qvPgks
You too boss
DeleteOy vei oil / natty gas
ReplyDeletehttps://cfvod.kaltura.com/pd/p/1727781/sp/172778100/serveFlavor/entryId/0_m20vzexc/v/511/flavorId/0_xwctaapm/name/a.mp4
ReplyDelete"Gigantic move up is coming" per Frederick Shad Rowe, one of Saut's friends.
We'll see...
The equity market is "best and only hope."
DeleteHope is not an investment plan!
A question for this learned group, who here has held any investment for twenty years?
I have held just two for twenty years, US dollar (my whole life) and the yellow stuff.
DeleteI only started investing 13 years ago!
DeleteUGAZ down 22%. Wow.
ReplyDeleteInteresting that CHK traded at $17 average in Q1 2015 when oil and natural gas were at the same levels they're at right now.
ReplyDeleteTo me it means somethings not right. RRC moved 108% off bottom while CHK was 22%. I suppose one could look at it as a catch up play, but not me. FWIW
DeleteBut always best to follow your own drum beat.
Here is what Zacks says:
DeleteWith natural gas advancing 85% from their 17-year lows reached in March and
Chesapeake Energy being one of the most gas weighted E&Ps, the company is
poised to achieve significant share price appreciation. As it is, Chesapeake boasts of
a leading position among the top unconventional liquids-rich plays and actively
manages its asset portfolio through a combination of acquisitions and disposals. The
company’s focus on the liquid-rich plays like Utica Shale is expected to contribute
highly to its growth momentum. Moreover, recent peer success with Enhanced Oil
Recovery process in the Eagle Ford is believed to unlock a big possibility for
Chesapeake. The company foresees remarkable cost cut efforts as well as efficiency
gains in its core operating areas. Consequently, we think Chesapeake offers
substantial upside potential from the current price levels.
Ranks it a buy at 2 with one being highest.
This comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteYeah it's a tough call. I don't own much as I'm worried about their balance sheet. But a move above $52 oil and in the $3's for Nat Gas and it seems that the stock would explode higher.
DeleteBB, I sure you have done very well since 09, congratulations.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if the catalyst for higher prices is the breakup of the EU. Just looking at the way the FTSE has traded since Brexit, it makes me wonder if other countries will follow suit and realize they're better of exiting the EU. I wonder if growth may have actually been stifled by the single currency / economy situation.
DeleteYou see the effects of Brexit more in the UK pound than their local stock market. the UK pound is down over 10%, as is the UK market in dollars (EWU).
DeleteI think we actually go the other way and see the rest of Europe become more integrated, like the US, going forward now that the UK is out of the way. They always were a pain not using the Euro and having a veto over a lot of things. Now they can push forward and when countries like Italy see the Pound getting trashed, I'm sure they realize that they would take an even bigger hit going back to the Lira.
T3d,
ReplyDeleteI've got 2 stocks I've held for a very long time EVT.TO - a closed end investment fund which I bought in 2001 at a big discount and has done alright. And CNQ which I bought in 2002 in a taxable account. In hindsight, should have sold in 2007, but am up over 800% and didn't want to pay the taxes and thought it was going to get going up gain, but really hasn't done anything since other than the dividend.
I've gota couple other small energy companies I'm still holding from 2004 as well, but everything else is 2009 and newer.
I'm thinking today might be the retest of last week's low for European markets and we can move upwards from here. The announcement of the closing of those property fund in the UK yesterday is not good, but I think isolated and not a sign of broader contagion. Reality for us in North America is the split, even if if causes a minor drop in GDP growth, should hurt our markets as long as we don't see financial contagion like 2008.
ReplyDeleteSaut:
ReplyDeleteThere is plenty of internal energy for an upside breakout to new all-time highs. Indeed, the Brexit decline has not changed our view that the February lows represented a major bottom, sinking the footings for a move to new all-time highs. Last week we experienced not only back-to-back 90% Upside Volume days, but back-to-back “buying climaxes” where 80%+ of issues traded advanced on the day. This is a rare event and last happened in December 2011 and January 2012 right before the S&P 500 (SPX/2102.95) gained ~24%
I picked up FCX on this dip today. Not the greatest entry at $10.54 but I think we could see it move to $20 by year end.
ReplyDeleteI'm banking on a major bottom in copper having taken place. Oil appears to have bottomed as has Gold. I think its copper's turn and FCX is heavily exposed to copper. The move in Gold alone so far this year has had, by some estimates, a +200M to +$400M effect to their bottom line.
DeleteTempting - these miners have loads of upside still if we see some firmness in metals pricing. In hindsight, the plunge early in the year was a very good buy. I've got a couple small miners from a few years ago (most I sold) that I held onto as I thought they were good long term winners, but are still down over 50% and starting to move up too.
DeleteI've also been looking at gold-oriented fund manager Sprott Inc. (SPOXF) as a way to play metals that hasn't moved much yet, but not sure yet.
FCX is a risky bet for sure, but I do think they have enough diversification of assets to get them through this tough period. If oil rebounds to 65 and copper starts rebounding then the upside should be pretty solid. Big ifs.
DeleteLooks like we could get a flush lower on the energy stocks. Tough to say for sure if this is buyable but based on prior charts I've seen, this is the time to be buying into these riskier ones like FCX / CHK. I'll be looking to add if we get "breakdowns" below recent consolidation ranges.
ReplyDeleteLong UWTI $25.8
ReplyDeleteAdded a little more. $25.68 avg. Worth a try here I think. Who knows?
DeleteSold UWTI at $26.
ReplyDeleteI ended up buying it back at $26.08. I think I'll see this through for a few days.
Delete+287,000 jobs added in June.
ReplyDeleteDJIA +145 points to 18041. SPX (S&P500) +0.85% to 2115. EEM (emerging markets) +1.2%. EWZ (Brazil) +3.6% to 30.07. RSX (Russia) +2.16% to 17.52.
By the way. RSX (Russia) is now +48% off its January 20 low. EWZ (Brazil) +74% off the January 21 low of 17.31.
Really surprised to see TLT up on the good jobs news today. Thought that would be a signal the economy is improving and interest rates starting to head back down. Wondering now if we get a parabolic blow-off top in rates before they finally start to normalize.
ReplyDeleteLots of money hiding there and could take a while to wear off just like in prior bubbles.
DeleteThey even have an acronym now - STUB - Staples Telcos Utilities Bonds
DeleteI think these are all overvalued rate-substitution plays and people are over-confidently buying them like tech in 1999.
Top Dow Stock for the YTD - VZ
Top 2 S&P 500 stocks with market cap over $120B - VZ and T
But I agree, these things do tend to go on a lot longer than seems logical to me.
DeletePrior oil corrections in new bull markets:
ReplyDelete1999 - 15% correction took 18 days
2009 - 14% correction took 17 days
Recent correction: 14% took 19 days
I'll try and find out more about the ENPH pilot program with PG&E. But I'll try and take a sot here. Bidding at 2.01.
ReplyDeleteFilled.
DeleteSold all at 2.06. I couldn't really find anything interesting about this program.
DeleteWeird. RAD agreed to be bought out by WBA at $9/share. It’s selling off the past couple of weeks and is now 30% below the buyout price. I bought some today at $6.90
ReplyDeleteObviously there's a chance it doesnt go through??
DeleteYeah for sure. But it's given up a lot of gains so maybe it bounces
DeleteBeen having a good day which means a pullback is imminent. CHK / FCX / UWTI / CRNT all doing well. debating what to do with RAD. Might just sell 1/2 of everything.
ReplyDeleteGot the "Trending" alert on FCX from Stocktwits (I set it up so I get alerts on stocks in my watchlist that are "trending"). Just sold half my position. Almost always signals a near term pullback.
ReplyDeleteI ended up selling 1/2 of everything, except for AMZN which I refuse to sell. Just feels a bit chase-y here and with hourly RSI for /ES around 80 I figure will have a lower risk entry
ReplyDeleteThis reminds me of the mkt.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYlEZgh8DJk
I sold FCX this morning at 12.26, nice sells TOF.
This is probably the cleanest explination....
ReplyDeleteJuly 13 (SeeNews) - California utility Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) will test technologies to advance the integration of distributed energy resources.
On Tuesday, the company said it was launching demonstration projects in San Jose in partnership with General Electric Co (NYSE:GE), microinverter maker Enphase Energy Inc (NASDAQ:ENPH), and rooftop solar company SolarCity (NASDAQ:SCTY).
The projects will see up to 150 residential customers and up to 20 commercial customers get solar smart inverters and/or behind-the-meter battery storage systems. The aim is to demonstrate how smart inverters and energy storage can be used in combination with distributed energy resource management technology to optimise electric distribution, as more customers go solar.
The demonstration is expected to start this September and run until December 2017.
PG&E said it expected a dramatic increase of distributed energy resources connecting to its grid between now and 2025 and so it was crucial to plan and enhance its grid to address that growth.
Long shot. Biding ENPH at 1.78.
DeleteThat's why Mark sits down at the high stakes poker table while I sweat it out at the $5 minimum craps table.
DeleteWLL sells off on an upgrade.
ReplyDeleteI ended up buying a good size chunk of NTDOY at 26.32 today. I think this Pokemon go game will power it higher
ReplyDeleteThe success of the game is incredible. 65 million users in the US in about a week and people up here hacking in to get the game early. German version released today.
DeleteYeah it's really incredible. Nintendo has a massive home run on their hands with this game. I wouldn't be surprised if they see huge profits from this game.
DeleteThey are also just getting into mobile games with other huge franchises they have (Mario Kart, Zelda, etc).
Ended up taking profits at $30.1 to $30.3. Tough to pass up on a 14% one day gain on a 30% position.
Delete'Market is way overbought-' Jim Cramer, 7/13/16
ReplyDeletehttps://www.thestreet.com/video/13638354/jim-cramer-the-market-is-very-overbought.html
With all due respect to Jim Cramer (who has, after all, minted a fortune selling stock market advice to guys like us), the market doesn't care what he thinks, and neither should we. At some point, Cramer will be 'right.' It's just not right now.
DJIA +150 points. EEM (emerging markets) +1.3%. EWZ (Brazil, where if it wasn't for bad news lately there would be no news at all) +2.74%. RSX (Russia) +1.4% and FXI (China 'H' Shares) both +1.5%.
Nice trade Tof!
ReplyDeleteBought some XON, some one on this board mentioned it awhile back. It is down 64% since then. The plan is to hold 3-5 years. I think it will do well or kinda just bust.
Should say its down -64% from highs.
DeleteThis was the one that Bill Miller said could be as big as AAPL one day. I think there's a lot of hype and bravado by the CEO.
DeleteSold the rest of my longs today, CHK, FCX, UWTI, RAD.
ReplyDelete'Stocks shouldn't be this high-' BlackRock CEO, 7/14/16
ReplyDeletehttp://money.cnn.com/2016/07/14/investing/record-stocks-blackrock-larry-fink/index.html
(a) '"I don't think we should be at new highs," Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, told CNBC. He pointed to signs that retail investors haven't joined the move higher in stocks.'
I think it's bullish that retail investors have yet to join in. Once they do, we may have the momentum needed to drive the DJIA above 20,000.
(b) 'Fink's words are closely watched. Not only is he the boss of a firm that manages nearly $5 trillion, but Fink is called upon by world leaders for advice and he's frequently mentioned as a potential future U.S. Treasury secretary.'
What's the rationale here? The more assets under management (AUM), the more accurate the prediction? Larry Fink heads a company that manages $5t. That is indeed a lot of money. Let's look in on our friend John Hussman, who personally oversaw (what used to be) $5b in AUM: http://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HSGFX. I don't know about you, but it appears to me he ran his investors' portfolios into the ground!
Be careful when deciding which voice(s) to listen to. You may want to avoid them altogether!
Track records are all that matters IMO. Is Larry personally managing portfolios and outperforming the market? Or did he just learn how to manage a company's operations well and moved up the ranks? I don't know the answer but my guess is the latter. Performance is all that matters in this game.
DeleteHi folks! I am back from my vacation. Still living on Moscow time, so I posting so early in the day...
ReplyDeleteI hope you have all had fun in the last couple of weeks. :) 2nd_ave's feeling of Brexit being a buying opportunity has turned out to be correct! Good to have an Oracle among us. :)
FCX did break out of its horizontal trading range, but it can easily come down. So, just placed a sell stop limit at 12.60/12.50 for the shares I purchased a month ago at 10.5, when Mike pointed out that FCX is in a new uptrend. Thanks, Mike!
Also, thanks T3D for beating the drum on the fertilizer stocks. I bought some calls on POT and MOS at the bottom of their recent trading range, and then added some MOS shares at 26 during Brexit. I would like to lock in some profits there as well, and so I just placed a sell stop limit on my MOS shares at 28/27.95.
USO did not do well recently, so I can't yet take profits on HLX that I reloaded at 6.60 during Brexit. I'll wait...
MOS promptly shook off my shares and surged higher. But that's OK, as I have an even higher exposure to it through my calls. A small"sacrifice" toarket gods does wonders for the rest of your position. :)
DeleteCHK is starting to look really good. Not sure if it has one more takeout move lower...
ReplyDeleteLong zagg play on Pokemon craze
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0GmiLUCrxUI
ReplyDeleteMoved the money I got from selling MOS this morning into HLX at $6.75.
ReplyDeleteHadn't looked at Hussman in a while, but his main fund, HSGFX, now down at $7.77
ReplyDeleteNot surprisingly, dwon to $500 million in assets.
Read a bit through his commentary and still spewing the same stuff and the world wil end and he will have been right and his fund will be ahead over the whole cycle.
Sometimes you just have to say "I was wrong"
I visited a friend today who works on Wall Street, in a small team of folks who are figuring out how best to invest billions of dollars. He said that all the research he has done about oil suggests that the supply-demand balance is very favorable for oil and he will be very surprised if it doesn't get to $70 in two years. All his personal investments are oil-related now. One of his investments is ROYT, and I'll buy it on a breakout above $2.25.
ReplyDeleteTo clarify, my friend bought ROYT at $1.60...
DeleteDoes anyone here know a site where I can find Net Tangible Assets? Have not been able find the data.
ReplyDeleteTia
I use gurufocus.com and sec.gov for a look at financials
DeleteJust bought some ROYT on today's pullback, at $1.97
ReplyDeleteForgot to mention -- ROYT was purchased with the money I got this morning from FCX, which hit my sell stop at 12.6 for the shares I purchased at 10.5... So it was basically a rotation into a more pure oil play...
DeleteNow that my port is oil-heavy once again, placed a sell limit at 7.75 on the shares of HLX I purchased on Friday at 6.75.
DeleteNow that my port is oil-heavy once again, placed a sell limit at 7.75 on the shares of HLX I purchased on Friday at 6.75.
DeleteAlso, since MOS has reached the top of its trading range, I just placed a sell limit at 10 for the Jan 2018 $20 calls I purchased at $6.80 a few weeks ago at the bottom of its range.
ReplyDeleteThis sell limit has just been hit. I have no more MOS left, but still have some Jan 2018 POT calls left, so if fertilizers take off now, I won't be too upset. :)
DeleteI just found Jeremy Grantham's 4Q2015 commentary, which I somehow missed (probably was worrying too much about falling oil prices). So far, 2016 is unfolding just as he had predicted:
ReplyDelete"Looking to 2016, we can agree that uncertainties are above average. But I think the global economy and
the U.S. in particular will do better than the bears believe it will because they appear to underestimate
the slow-burning but huge positive of much-reduced resource prices in the U.S. and the availability of
capacity both in labor and machinery. So even though I believe our trend line growth capability is only
1.5%, our spare capacity and lower input prices make 2.5% quite attainable for this year. And growth
at this level would make a major market break unlikely. As discussed elsewhere, this situation feels at
worst like an ordinary bear market lasting a few months and not like a major collapse. That, I think,
will come later after the final ingredients of a major bubble fall into place.
As always, though, prudent investors should ignore historical niceties like these and invest according
to GMO’s rather depressing 7-year forecast. The U.S. equity market, although not in bubble territory,
is very overpriced (+50% to 60%) and the outlook for fixed income is dismal. At current asset prices
no pension fund requirements can be met. Thus, we should welcome a major market break that will
leave us with more reasonable investment growth potential for the longer term, but I suspect that we
will have to wait patiently for such a major decline. The ability of the market to hurt eager bears some
more is probably not exhausted. I still believe that, with the help of the Fed and its allies, the U.S.
market will rally once again to become a fully-fledged bubble [which he later defines as S&P above 2300] before it breaks. That is, after all, the logical outcome of a Fed policy that stimulates and overestimates some more until, finally, some strut in the complicated economic structure snaps. Good luck in 2016."
HLX will release earnings tomorrow after the market closes. In order to prepare for the possible volatility, I staggered my sell limit orders to $7.60 (for the shares purchased at $6.60 during Brexit), to $8 (for the shares purchased at $6.75 last Friday), to $8.50 (for the shares purchased at $7.30 a while ago).
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-18/investors-pull-most-money-from-u-s-stock-pickers-since-2008
ReplyDeleteInteresting...are there any actively managed funds with great track records that we should be looking at? Now seems like a good time to consider them given the bashing going on.
Ended up taking the gains in ZAGG at $6.9. Almost sold this morning in the $7.30 range but it dropped like an anvil so decided to wait.
ReplyDeleteBack in uwti at 24.84 and fcx at 12.47
ReplyDeleteLooking for a bottom here soon in oil. Maybe a double bottom or a fake out breakdown. I'd expect a big up day after to signal the bottom is in. If we break down below $43 then I'll stand aside
ReplyDeleteI also have a feeling that oil should bottom soon. Placed a buy stop limit on BTE just above today's highs, at $5.6/$5.65.
DeleteIf one looks at BTE since mid-March and connects the lows, then one gets a nice straight line, with yesterday's close lying pretty much on top of that line. Hence, right now is a reasonable time to buy it.
DeleteDoubled down on FCX
ReplyDeletelooks good, CHK never really seems to come in either
DeleteHLX hit my sell limit now at $7.60 for the shares purchased at $6.60 during Brexit. My next sell limit is at $8...
ReplyDeleteCurrently 7.94. You seem to have hit your stride this year, David!
DeleteEven a broken clock gets things right once in a while. :) Not sure when the next major downturn in commodities will take place, but if I will still keep hanging on to that broken clock of commodities going up, then my port will be destroyed once again. Unless, of course, I will remember the lesson of the most recent destruction and will restrain myself to playing charts that have been trending up (or at least flattenning out) for a few months.
DeleteActually, it is possible to come out positive over the lifetime with only a single idea, such as commodities going up, if one uses a sound advice of reducing one's position sizes if recent trades all turn out to be losing ones and increasing position sizes (up to a certain maximum) if the recent trades turn out to be winning ones.
DeleteNo one knows for certain, but I'm pretty sure a significant number of investors (on the advice of gurus or the media) cashed out either 'just prior to' or 'immediately following' Brexit Friday. They are now waiting for a pullback or retest to rebuild their portfolios. The dilemma? With each new high (which the market appears to set on a daily basis), it becomes more difficult to wait for the pullback, and even more difficult to give in and 'chase' prices. Eventually, they will capitulate and become the driving force that takes the market even higher than now seems possible. Just my take.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete