Saturday, November 26, 2016
11/25/16 Sequel
The best of life (love, music, and the capital markets) are light on logic and reside instead in a parallel universe where events unfold in mysterious ways.
All three converged in the Seventies when Harry Chapin chronicled the story of 'the love of his life' in 'Taxi.' Linked above (and below) is the best live performance I've come across:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IfqjKDRQvWI
The first time I heard the song was senior year in high school, when a classmate played it in English class as her selection for favorite recording (along with an essay to back it up, of course!). A few years later in college, someone pointed out that Chapin had embedded part of a Sylvia Plath poem in the lyrics:
Baby's so high, that she's skying
Yes she's flying, afraid to fall
I'll tell you why baby's crying
Cause she's dying, aren't we all
In 1980 Chapin penned 'Sequel,' which gave closure to fans of the story:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bD8sZFe9zxw
Is it believable? According his biographer (Chapin died in a traffic accident in '81 on the Long Island Expressway), it's about 60% true. The real life 'Sue' worked briefly for Drexel Burnham Lambert in the Seventies, and experienced setbacks which included a divorce. In a world filled with deceptive sound bites and half-truths, that's good enough!
http://wtop.com/virginia/2016/03/va-woman-inspired-chapins-hit-taxi-dies-73-reports-say/
http://www.wsj.com/articles/clare-macintyre-ross-woman-who-inspired-song-taxi-1943-2016-1458343327
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No one believes we'll see another 1999 parabolic move in the markets anytime soon. Does a Trump administration now introduce that possibility? And will it occur this time around in sectors that include commodities and emerging markets?
ReplyDeleteThere's a guy I follow that has called pretty much the entire move from last fall until now...he has been saying we will get a 1999 type move for several years now mainly based on lack of bullish sentiment.
Deletehttps://twitter.com/tradingaddicts?lang=en
Bought back into CHK at $6.6 on the rise in nat gas. No clue if it works...crossing fingers.
ReplyDeleteThis stock always drops right after I buy. It's pretty amazing how consistent it does this.
DeletePlaced a sell limit order on NMM at $1.85 for the shares that were purchased this morning at $1.60. This is going to be my trading bunch, in case NMM decides to spend some time between here and $2.00...
ReplyDeleteI sold some of my NMM at $1.78. I suspect i was early on this shipping turn as Q1 will still be rough waters, pun intended.
ReplyDeleteWhat's up with oil being up 1% today and oil stocks (say XOP) collapsing??? Is more expensive oil now bad for stocks? :)
ReplyDeletePeople not willing to hold thru OPEC meeting
Delete20 out of 25 analysts rate CHK either a "Hold" or a "Sell". Given the sorry state of its balance sheet I can see why. But they did $1.6Billion in gross profit last quarter ($6.4B run rate). At normal SGA and other operating exp, they could potentially do $2Billion in pre-tax profit on this run rate. After taxes and int exp that's a $1B net profit or $1.30 EPS. At a 12 p/e that's a $15 stock.
ReplyDeleteLong BABA at $95.6...probably a little late on this potential breakout.
ReplyDeleteTook RRC off 38.36ish
ReplyDeleteNat gas should continue to grind higher as exports grow. When Chesapeakes hedges come off on the price of natty in Jan chk should fly
ReplyDeleteOil prices surge +7% on (yet to be confirmed) reports of an OPEC agreement to limit output (on the heels of 'guidance' toward lower prices by insightful media analysts), lifting the DJIA as high as 19,225 near the open. RSX (Russia) and EWZ (Brazil) both up over +2%. I tend to trust the move, as 'the real deal' almost always arrives out of left field.
ReplyDeleteI had a very strong feeling that yesterday was a trap for bears
DeleteIt's another day, David. The sun is shining on the FCX/BTE fields.
ReplyDeletejumped back in RRC, CHK rippin
ReplyDeleteI am out of FCX already, but I entered BHP during its pullback under $36. I'll try holding it for a long term, as it's chart is a simple straight line since February, unlike the scary parabolic move in FCX.
ReplyDeleteHopefully, BTE will start a sustained uptrend now. In order to clear the path for its uptrend, I just sold my "trading" lot of shares at $4.18, the one I reloaded at $3.87, after selling it at $4.11, after .... :)
ReplyDeleteI'm warming up to DB
ReplyDeleteI bought back into the casino (DRYS) after hours at $5.44
ReplyDeleteAnyone follow SDRL closely enough to know if there's a turnaround brewing?
ReplyDeleteFinancial stocks leading sector in November (https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/sector-performance-in-november-best-and-worst-months-since/)
ReplyDeleteUp 13.7% for November and still one of the cheapest sectors in the market.
Many charts are breaking out as well, so, while some are extended, not sure the market will give you an easy entry point.
I placed a sell limit order for another small part of my BTE position at $4.34. Hopefully, BTE gaps up well above that threshold tomorrow. :)
ReplyDeleteMy portfolio has gone from having a very rough first half of the year to now be up almost 10% in US$, in line with the S&P. Was thinking would have an underperformance year this year, but now have a reasonable chance of beating. Unlikely to catch the TSX which is up 18% total return YTD.
ReplyDeleteBaltic Dry Index often goes in the same direction for days, and the fact that its recent pullback was short-lived suggests that the uptrend is still in place. If so, we might see new highs in NMM soon...
ReplyDeleteI might pick up GNK here soon.
DeleteBought DB at $16.1
ReplyDeleteProbably unwise to do this but I am going to sell CHK on a break below 7.14. I'm wondering if their hedges are holding it back. I know I'm probably over thinking it so if it does this and rallies back above the HOD I will re-enter.
ReplyDeleteSaved by the bell I guess...Glad I didn't see.
DeleteMy BTE sell limit order at $4.34 was executed today at $4.58 -- nice. :) Still have a large position remaining, will keep scaling out of it slowly... Next sell limit is at $5.
ReplyDeleteBought some more GDX now at $20.50. This chart does not let me rest:
ReplyDeletehttps://marketrealist.imgix.net/uploads/2016/11/Gold-Price-versus-US-10-year-Breakeven-2016-11-16-3.jpg?w=660&fit=max&auto=format
Inflation expectations are shooting up, and gold has always moved in tandem with them. Now there is a large discrepancy, which either indicates a great opportunity or a major shift in market relationships. I think the first one is more likely. :)
lol. I joined you.
DeleteThanks for driving up the GDX price right after I bought it! :) You must have REALLY piled into it. :))
DeleteLong NUGT and GDX at $7.64 and 20.66
ReplyDeleteJust sold em 8.04 and $20.94
DeleteBought back half stake in each at $8 and $20.91. Will add more tomorrow on pullback
DeleteStop in CHK got hit. Sold at $7.13
ReplyDeleteDecided to reload at $4.34 my trading lot of BTE shares, which was sold this morning at $4.58. Placed a sell limit order for this bunch at $4.70.
ReplyDeleteJO is a good reference chart for GDX. I've been watching this all year since I missed the rally in Miners. Take a look at JO from 2014. I think GDX is in a very similar spot to JO in July 2014. I think it's a very low risk / high reward entry point.
ReplyDeleteI hope that in 2 years GDX will fare better than JO did after July 2014!
DeleteI ended up taking off the trade after hours. It went against me too hard and quite frankly I'm not looking to marry it. Ended up making a small amount on it in total. Oh well.
DeleteMan I got a listen to that speech from Trump. That guy sure does ramble.
ReplyDeleteAdd to NUGT and GDX
ReplyDeleteActually, what's up with JO? Has it made a double bottom on the 5-year chart? A large shakeout took place over the past month -- is it time to enter now?
ReplyDeletePlaced a buy stop limit on some JO at $21.30/$21.40
My soft gold friend buddy actually sold his gold mining stocks a couple weeks ago. I tried to convince him to sell back in July when they had tripled from the start of the year, but he said they were going to the moon and finally sold now they have pulled back almost 1/3 from the summer highs.
ReplyDeleteMade me wonder if it was time to buy the gold miners, but he still has not sold any of his physical metal holdings.
Sentiment wise it might be ready for a bounce but bigger picture I think gold is heading lower should the economy continue to grow
Delete(a) David- Nice to see your order for BTE filled +5.5% above limit!
ReplyDelete(b) GDX. I would agree that it's probably headed higher from here.
I took an order in NUGT pre market and sold on the "pop" to $7.90. Now sitting at $8.60. Ouch. I think we are seeing fear around the Italy vote on Sunday. "Come Monday, it'll be alright". Oh and NUGT will prob crash.
ReplyDeleteSlowly buying into RIG here. Excellent risk reward here. Stop below $12.80. Upside is pretty big I think if oil goes to $55-60
Took a pretty large position in RIG...avg $13.3
DeleteMike -- tell us more about RIG. Why do you like it so much?
DeletePrimarily because I think oil is going to $55-56 and I think its the most levered to more upside. Plus, I like the entry in that I'm out below $12.80 to $12.90. Manageable risk.
DeleteOver the past 5 days, its chart matches BTE almost identically, so I am glad that you are on board of the spec oil rally. :)
DeleteI was right about JO getting ready to bounce! And I was lucky that this morning's run up did not hit my buy stop at $21.30. I have just bought some JO at $20.86, placed a sell stop limit for this position under yesterday's low at $20.50/$20.40, and also placed a buy stop limit at $21/$21.10 so as to buy more if it moves up before hitting my stop.
ReplyDeleteWhy did GDX bounce today despite the large drop in unemployment??? I am not complaining, of course. :)
ReplyDeleteMy guess is fear about Italian election. I think it fades
DeleteOK, I'll trust your instinct. Just sold at $21.36 the shares I purchased yesterday at $20.50. Placed a buy stop limit order on it at $22/$22.05, so as to catch it on the way up if it decides to break to the upside out of its recent trading range.
DeleteAnyone buying VRX?
ReplyDeleteLong VRX at $15.47
DeleteBought cbi after hours at 31.97
ReplyDeleteMike, I agree on gold and think it is well below $1000 before this bear is fully done. You are more nimble so can play these shorter term bounces, but I prefer just to stay away.
ReplyDeleteMore market magic this morning. Call it the Italian Job. The financial media, after spinning a resounding 'No' by Italian voters as yet another pending catalyst for a market selloff, are now busy 'explaining' why investors decided to 'shrug it off.' Hedge funds (aka 'the smart money') which sold European stocks, shorted the Euro, and went long gold last week are taking a bath this morning. Whereas individual investors with positions in low-cost index funds ('doing nothing' if you will) have done quite well!
ReplyDeleteThe best quote I've read today:
ReplyDelete“After Brexit, it took three days for markets to shake it off, with Trump it took three hours, with Italy it took three minutes,” said Guillermo Hernandez Sampere, head of trading at MPPM EK in Eppstein, Germany.
Long YANG heading into FX reserve release for China tonight
ReplyDeleteThe Chinese Yuan is a MAJOR problem for China. I have now had 2 suppliers say they're seeing significant inflation (due to Yuan falling most likely). Article in Forbes on Friday said that Bank of China is blocking large customers from converting Yuan into Dollars.
Deletehttp://fortune.com/2016/12/02/bank-china-forex-capital-outflow/
DeleteSold CBI and sold VRX at $32.4 and $15.35
ReplyDeleteBTE hit my sell limit today at $4.70 for the shares I reloaded at $4.34 during its pullback last week. So I was able to squeeze 2 round trips into the post-OPEC oil spike rather than 1 -- nice. :)
ReplyDeleteJO, on the other hand, did not follow through on Friday's jump, and so I sold this morning at $20.74 the starter position I purchased on Friday at $20.87. At this point, there is an obvious entry point into JO if it does choose to stage lasting bounce -- above Friday's high, which is where I set my buy stop order.
ReplyDeleteWould rather take a very small hit now and wait for the chart to start looking bullish before entering big.
DeleteMike -- nice jump in RIG today for you! I can't figure out its balance sheet -- does it have any debt problems? What if oil stays at $50 for the next 2 years -- will it be a problem for RIG?
ReplyDeleteNot sure. They have a good deal of debt but they rolled over most of it. One of the things I like is Trump has talked about using more of our own resources. That requires drilling. Maybe its good for RIG
DeleteI'm not so sure about YANG. I'm biased of course, but I think China rallies tonight.
ReplyDeleteI closed it. Was hoping for a rally into the close
DeleteLong DGAZ at $3.55
ReplyDeleteRisky bet but if this continues to be extremely choppy then not a horrible entry here.
DeleteENPH boner on an upgrade. I still don't see how they get by with the cash they have.
ReplyDeleteWow, that upgrade has a $4 PT on it.
DeleteSold DGAZ.
ReplyDeleteI bought back into VRX at $15.14. i'm just hoping to get a pop on an asset sale.
ReplyDeleteBABA isn’t a bad bet here for a shorter term trade. China is releasing their FX reserves # tonight which a lot of people are selling china stocks in advance for. could be an opportunity to buy on weakness and if it drops below $87 then bail on it
Sold VRX at $15.6
ReplyDeleteHelluva day for DB. I still think this one gets to $30.
ReplyDeleteShould have done this earlier..added DB on morning dip
ReplyDeleteLots of news out of SPWR this morning. It will be interesting to see how it trades.
ReplyDeleteLooks like people are finally giving up on NMM today. Just bought some more at $1.55.
ReplyDeleteX has almost doubled since the elections -- amazing!
ReplyDeleteLong fcx
ReplyDeletePlaced a buy limit order for more NMM at $1.45. There is a very clear positive correlation between BTE and NMM over the past 5 years and past 2 years, which suggests that the drop in NMM just reflects the drop in all commodities. With inflation going up, with metals ripping higher, with oil in the uptrend due to OPEC finally getting itself together, all commodity prices will keep increasing, which should move up BDI, which should move up NMM. So this pullback is probably the first major shakeout in a long-term uptrend.
ReplyDeleteBHP seems to be ready to break above $39, the ceiling against which it has been bumping for the past month on the intraday data, making higher lows (i.e., multiple cup-and-handles). So I just bought a medium-sized stake in BHP at $38.88.
ReplyDeleteAlso, I just lowered my buy stop on JO to be just above yesterday's intraday spike at $20.80.
ReplyDeleteEurope announced the taper of asset purchases this morning and bonds are down (yields up) which helps banks and insurers.
ReplyDeleteStocks like that Redding based small-cap bank, BOCH, are now up almost 50% from the summer time. Insurer NWLI up over 50%, Euro bank ING, the same.
I can see this rally continuing for another couple years as people still don't believe and this normalization of rates and business will take time.
Investors looking for the reason(s) behind Wednesday's rally are likely to be disappointed. There was no catalyst, and no news.
ReplyDeleteMy own take is that there exists a strong bias (generally unacknowledged but probably also to a large degree unrecognized) that Trump's policies cannot possibly be good for the global market. The global market (ie, the collective wisdom [or not] of the crowd) disagrees. Thus a substantial percentage of funds have been left behind by a powerful rally that has allowed few (if any) opportunities to 'buy in' on dips.
It's imprudent to chase. However, prudence is not paying off (and not paying off in spades) in this case. As one example, regional banks have rallied +30% in a few weeks! How do you justify buying in to that kind of move? It's quite painful and almost impossible. On the other hand, trying to explain to investors on December 31 why your fund has under-performed is even more painful. So I think ultimately sidelined fund managers will be forced to 'pay up.'
NMM is rallying today, with BDI down. This is yet another demonstration that the recent shakeout in NMM is not due to fundamentals but is just the ebb and flow of a small stock that cannot continue its uptrend unless some of the people who were "in" get out, and then start piling back "in."
ReplyDeleteLook at BHP: it was clear yesterday that the time has come for it to break above $39, and so it gaps up strongly above $39. But too many people probably had their buy stop orders above $39, so they all get in and there is nobody to push the stock further up. So BHP declines and even goes red briefly! After some of the early boarders get off in fear, the stock starts moving up again.
DeletePlaced a sell stop limit on BHP at today's lows, which also happens to be the exact price at which I bought it yesterday.
ReplyDeleteOn a second thought, I decided to lower my sell stop limit on BHP to late November lows. If they are violated, then the 1-month chart will stop looking bullish.
DeleteTake a look at the BTE stock chart since December 1 and BHP over the past month -- exactly the same pattern of higher lows and a horizontal ceiling. Both seem to be coiled for a break out...
ReplyDeleteHLX is on sale today for some reason, so I just bought some at $10.37, with a stop at its pre-election lows.
ReplyDeleteScrew it took a position in CBI. Trades at like 8 times earnings and big infrastructure play. I flipped it when it tanked the other day and should have just held. Currently holding FCX, DB, RIG, CHK, NMM.
ReplyDeleteWhat's up with JO? Did Trump say that drinking coffee is going to be illegal?
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteHa. He's a straight edge so maybe he did!
DeleteBrent - Are you still in CBI? I know we looked at it closely 2 years ago. I stayed away because of its exposure to oil but now that oil is rising and its still at the mid $30's level I think its worth a risk here. Its one of the cheaper stocks I can find right now at like 7x FCF and EPS.
ReplyDeleteAnnoyed I didn't take advantage of the drop in GNK this morning. Was tied up in stuff but wanted to get some when I got back to it and by then it went from -13% to -6%.
ReplyDeleteI really like this one because of the size of their fleet (they bought out BALT a few years ago), the fact that they have ample liquidity, and the fact that their management team saw the downturn coming and seem to be really honest. I specifically remember a conf call in 2013/14 for BALT where their CEO John Wobensmith (now CEO of GNK) was asked about his opinion of the dry bulk market going forward and he said he was extremely pessimistic and didn't agree with other executives about the rosy outlook. He turned out to be spot on. Granted they couldn't stop the downward pressure from hurting their company but I think he's worth listening to.
DeleteHe is still pessimistic about 2017 but said as it nears 2018 he is very optimistic as the over supply of ships dwindles. Getting this turn will be very important and could result in MASSIVE gains in my opinion. I think GNK has the most upside, by far, but it's one of the more exposed ones to the volatile day rates if I recall. At a $50M equity valuation I think with 55 ships on hand they could ultimately be a 20 bagger from here. But there's still that chance they go belly up.
So the key is timing. Do you start buying it here with the hopes that the turn comes some time mid 2017? If the turn doesn't come until 2018 there's a chance the stock could drop to new lows which is more than 50% downside. You could get diluted as well so let's say they 3x additional shares on the market then the upside would still be 6x the current valuation. And you have to hope that the rest of the players in the market stay disciplined with new builds which isn't a sure thing. It is a very fragmented industry so there's not a few large players that could help keep the overall supply of the market down.
DeleteGood info on GNK Mike. Previously I've seen reports on new builds vs. scrapping, but haven't been spending time looking into shipping lately, so not sure where this stands, but makes sense we are getting close to a turn. Such a tricky industry because the lead times on ship orders is so long and the generally high leverage makes the risk/reward high.
ReplyDeleteRe CBI, I do still own it. They got into a mess with their nuclear business , so sold it off to Westinghouse as a major loss to get out. Now are being sued by Westinghouse, so overhang on the stock. From what I'm reading, the Westinghouse case is quite weak, but there is always risk in a lawsuit. Once this is resolved, I think you see a good upmove. It s very cheap and fairly stable, regardless of the economy, with energy exposure and generally trading with energy.
Let's say they hit their earnings estimate of $4.53 next year and the lawsuite settles and things normalize. Put a 13 p/e on that, which is below market and at the low end of where it usually trades and the stock is $59, up 65%. Put a market average muliple on it and it is a double from here.
Had forgotten how bad the start of the year was - http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2016/12/cws-market-review-december-9-2016.html
ReplyDeleteThe Trump Rally keeps on trumping. Since Election Day, the Dow has set 13 new highs. Remarkably, just one stock—Goldman Sachs—is responsible for 30.2% of the Dow’s entire advance.
Remember how the start of 2016 was one of the worst market starts in Wall Street history? Howard Silverblatt noted this stat: At the market’s February low, the S&P 500 was down 10.5% YTD, yet the Financials were down 17.7%. Since then, the S&P 500 has rallied 21.5%, while the Financials are up 45.6%. It’s as if the entire market were the dog being wagged by the banking sector’s tail.
I’ve been pleased to see the Trump Rally broaden out recently. On Wednesday, one-quarter of the stocks in the S&P 500 closed at a new 52-week high. That’s the most in two years.
Mike, which company do you think has better financials in terms of FCF and debt, GNK or NMM?
ReplyDeleteOh, clearly its NMM. NMM also has ties to NM so I think you have to pay attention to that. that whole relationship makes me uneasy to be honest.
DeleteThe most upside I think you'd have to say its GNK. However, if the Baltic Dry Index gets to 3,000 then I would have to imagine both would do very well.
Thanks! So why are you buying GNK, if you are not sure that shipping has turned the corner already?
DeleteI haven't bought GNK yet. Watching it closely.
DeleteWhat's up with the oil patch today??? With oil up so much on the OPEC news, XOP gapped up strongly but is now back to even XOP and HLX is already in red??? Just bought more HLX at 10.45, as a way of diversifying away from BTE.
ReplyDeleteBTE is actually behaving well today -- it opened at 5.47, triggered the sell limit order I had at 5.00 (nice!) and is holding its ground, more or less.
Long SID at $3.24. Been watching for a good entry on this for a while. Stops below $3.
ReplyDeleteNice jump in BHP today -- I was getting worried about it on Friday. :) Raised my sell stop on it to yesterday's low at $38.10.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/12/us-shale-drillers-the-real-winners-of-the-opec-output-deal.html
ReplyDeleteHLX actually provides drilling services to other companies, so at this point in the oil rally, it makes sense for me to start switching from oil producers (BTE) to oil services (HLX).
That's why I like RIG
DeleteThe shift in perception of financials continues. Stocks like BAC traded at p/b's of over 1.5 all through the 2000's up to the 2008 financial crisis and often got up above a p/b of 2. It is currently trading at .93, so lots of upside as the interest rate and regulation environments improve.
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/news/3230397-morgan-stanley-banks-now-growth-stocks
Yep. That's why I like DB. US Banks are undervalued and DB is severely undervalued...assuming things go their way which I think they ultimately do.
DeleteDB is still risky though.
DeleteI agree that things eventually work out for DB.
DeleteI also just bought a Dutch insurer, NNGPF. Doesn't trade much in the US (DD.AS is main listing), so I just bought a small position, but also is super cheap, sub-10 p/e, p/b under .4. There's a lawsuit here, but assuming it is resolved reasonably or even on the expensive side, should get things moving. Rated very safe on capital and trying to consolidate the Dutch market by buying out competition. Good dividend too.
Decent odds (let's say 2:1) today's decline in the global markets was a bear trap-> global indexes gap up overnight-> DJIA 20000 by Thursday's close. That's my take in a nutshell.
ReplyDeleteHow hard has the past five years been on fund managers who insist the market is overvalued and 'must' correct -50% or more to properly 'reset' itself? Let's look in on the Hussman Strategic Growth Fund for an illustration:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HSGFX?p=HSGFX
Sure, the fund closed green today. But it closed up just 0.01/share to 7.31, which is exactly 0.01 above it's all-time low!
Gold having another rough day and looks to be heading back to where it started the year. The interesting thing is the gold stocks are still double where they started the year. Stocks are still at the 2013/2014 levels, where gold traded in the $1,200 - $1,400 range and now at $1,130.
ReplyDeletePIR- The wicker rocket lives!
ReplyDeleteDamn, that was a nice dbl bottom at 4ish.
DeleteLooks like JO is finally flattening out, at least in the medium term. Just took a shot at it at $20.37 and placed a sell stop under the recent low at $19.75.
ReplyDeleteLooks like HLX is flattening out too. Just bought some more at $10.39
ReplyDeletePlaced a sell limit at $11.
DeleteI caught some GnK when it started to move but couldn't catch a full position. Ugh
ReplyDeleteDamn man I only got about 1/4 of a position in this at $7.80. My hope is it comes back to the same spot in the next few days.
DeleteTook it off at 8.75
DeleteLucky you! :) I was going to remind you that BDI is still going down, so this jump in GNK was probably a bear rally...
DeleteTook a position in YANG at $16.59 today.
ReplyDeleteSold DB at $19.14. Sold RIG at $15.1
ReplyDeleteJO is still not going down, so the next short-term move will probably be up. Bought more at $20.37
ReplyDeleteRRC filled the gap long at 34.01.
ReplyDeleteGNK nice trade looked at it this morning but tough spreads
JO looks interesting May take a shot with you David
GNK nice trade TOF!
DeleteI took off all long positions
ReplyDeleteBeen a nice run but I wonder if this honeymoon feeling wears off
Deletenew post
ReplyDelete