Wednesday, December 28, 2016
12/28/16 Route 66-> US Indexes take a dive for the team!
This band reminds me of college friends from Japan or Taiwan who studied hard and socialized little during the week, but amazed me on weekends with their nuanced understanding of American counter-culture. I began to realize that what should amaze us is the degree to which our perspectives are shaped by the media (try listening with your eyes closed!). These five guys (the female singer remains mostly off-camera) are clearly having a great time cutting loose from day jobs, probably trading forex or something (but that would be just another stereotype). Very tight band!
DJIA -100 points, SPX -0.74%, Nasdaq -0.82%. With the media obsessed with 'Dow 20,000,' this is the kind of action we need to set up a real run to (and well beyond) DJIA 20,000.
Away from the US, the global markets continue to look positive. Brazil's iBovespa +1.88% today with its corresponding exchange-traded fund EWZ (Brazil) +1.21%, RSX (Russia) +0.62%, FXI (China 'H' Shares) +0.9%, EEM (emerging markets) +0.74%.
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Picked up some GDXJ at $30.5 and NUGT at $7.09 after hours.
ReplyDeleteOdds favor a fairly steep one to few day drop, maybe today was day one. I'm sitting mostly in cash and hoping to grab FCX, DB, RIG, X, others on my watch list on a dip
ReplyDeleteThis sell-off is pretty much expected after the lack of tax-loss selling into late December, so likely people are selling winners now to push taxes back to 2018. Once this pent up selling ends, we can get a truer read on the market going into 2017.
ReplyDelete2016 first positive year for commodities in at least 5
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/814285326290194432
The divergence continues. US indexes open flat to slightly lower, while emerging markets build on Wednesday's gains-> EEM (emerging markets) +1.31%, EWZ (Brazil) +1.65%, FXI (China) +1.16%, RSX (Russia) +0.5%.
ReplyDeleteTook off NUGT / GDXJ way too early ugh. Sold NUGT at $7.5 and GDXJ at $31.95
ReplyDeleteBought SQQQ at $12.68. Prepping for some more downside.
ReplyDeleteMy take on the end of 2016/ early 2017.
ReplyDelete(a) 50/50 chance the DJIA closes above 20000. Should it occur, the 'event' is likely to unfold either as an unexpected 'gap up' on Friday, or as a program-driven spike in the final 30 minutes of trading on Friday.
(b) The divergence between US markets and emerging markets will continue for several months.
(c) All stock markets will surge higher in the first half of 2017. We're unlikely to see a significant pullback until the summer months.
As you know, I have little faith in predictions. However, I have a little faith in pattern recognition, which is probably what lies behind my takes. The reason I attribute them to pattern recognition is that I generally don't try to work too hard at coming up with scenarios- instead, as I take a walk or reflect at my desk the growing probability of a given event will dawn on me. It's really no different than what Wayne Gretzsky used to say about skating to where to the puck is going to be, and not to where it is.
People are gonna rush to the exits to take their gains first day of the year. I'm thinking we get a 4-5% drop, then a rally to the 20k, then a 8% drop....not sure of rest of year but that's my take right now for the first 4 months or so.
ReplyDeleteIf I had to guess, we will see the market rally into year end after the dust settles on the initial volatile first few months.
DeleteOn the flip side I think the dollar is going to drop a decent amount here which should be great for gold miners, stocks like FCX etc. That could also keep the market going. I think way too many people have gotten bullish on the dollar.
DeleteSold SQQQ at $12.7...just gonna keep searching for entries on the stocks I like. DB and FCX coming down.
ReplyDeleteI'm setting up the kids accounts for their college funds and I'm tempted to put a small chunk into TSLA and just letting it ride. I'm fascinated with the stuff Elon Musk is doing.
ReplyDeleteVery smart guy and great at communicating his vision. Hard to justify the valuation based on the car business they are in, but he could be doing a Jeff Bezos and growing TSLA into far more than it is now.
DeleteI ended up putting a little of that and fCX into my kids accounts today. FCX will benefit significantly from the boost in copper use in electric cars. It will take time to play out but I think within 5 years you will see FCX up at new all time highs.
DeleteI think 2017 may finally be Europe's year to take the lead. They are a couple years behind the US in straightening out their economy and things look to be starting to turn and their valuations are a lot better than the US. Plus, the Euro is at lows, so can buy their stocks cheap with US$ and the benefits of the low currency will flow into European based companies.
ReplyDeleteThere are a lot of cheaper stocks over there.
DeleteEnded up taking a good sized position in FCX today. Hopefully it's not a mistake. They have some near term risk with the Grasberg mine contract set to expire in 2 weeks. They've extended for like 40 years now and it's in Indonesia's best interest but you never know with these foreign countries.
ReplyDeleteThe stock made a double bottom today with prices from a week or so ago. Manageable spot here on the chart. I still think we see $19+ in Q1.
I sold the morning pop at 13.65. So much for holding it long term ha. I just am being picky trying to time bottom
DeleteBack in NUGT for a trade at $7.95.
ReplyDeleteSold for a loss.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.sciencealert.com/watch-tesla-s-autopilot-predicts-a-crash-freakishly-early
ReplyDeleteHappy New Year Boyz!
ReplyDeleteInteresting interview with Jim Chanos, a taste, "LP: What do you hope might happen in this emerging world?
JC: This is the tough thing about being in the financial markets. You can have opinions on all this stuff and either get it wrong or have it not matter."
Full interview if interested
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lynn-parramore/jim-chanos-big-change-ahe_b_13791246.html?section=us_business
Happy New Year everyone! I hope it turns out to be fun and profitable for everyone here!
ReplyDeleteFor me, it did start on a good note: GNK hit my sell limit at $8 for the shares I purchased at $7.07. A little while ago, I decided to recycle that money into NMM at $1.44. Placed sell limits on it at $1.55 and $1.65. I think NMM does not have much further to fall, and I'll try trading it around the bottom for a while.
The first sell limit was hit today at $1.56
DeleteThe second limit was hit today at $1.65.
DeleteMy next sell limit is at $1.85 for the bunch of shares I purchased at $1.60.
DeleteNice to see all oil stocks up with oil down 2.7% :)
ReplyDeletePlaced a sell limit order at $8.37 for another bunch of GNK shares that I purchased at $7.37.
ReplyDeleteThe limit was hit today. Now I am all out of GNK, with only some NMM remaining. Thank you, Mike, for bringing GNK to our attention! :)
DeleteNot nice to see my two oil positions, BTE and HLX, down on the day when oil is up more than 1% -- I guess this is the reversal of Tuesday's anomaly. :)
ReplyDeleteHLX decided to sell $200M worth of shares at $8.65:
ReplyDeletehttp://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=94139&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2234137
WTF??? I thought they did not have any debt problems...
Second question: why didn't its price plunge to $8.65 today? Is it possible for small investors to purchase shares at that price?