https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01GI6S7EK/ref...
Book recommendations are few and far between these days, but this one's worth
it. A quote from an interview with author Michael Lewis gives you an idea of
what's in store:
“One of the lessons these guys [Israeli psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos
Tversky] delivered is, the world is a far less certain place than our mind is
prepared to be in,” Lewis said. “Reality is, as Amos said, reality is not a
point; it’s a cloud of possibilities. At any given time, you’re in a
probabilistic situation. But people don’t think that way and they should. They
should think probabilistically and statistically about many problems. If you
are seeking the advice of some expert, a financial adviser, a doctor, or a
political pundit, or someone telling you which sports team to bet on, if that
person exhibits total certainty about his predictions, you know you have a
problem already.”
A book Jim Morrison might have carried around had it been written in 1970. In
this case, it's the real deal. As we used to say back then, 'it's a
mind-blower!'
Book recommendations are few and far between these days, but this one's worth
it. A quote from an interview with author Michael Lewis gives you an idea of
what's in store:
“One of the lessons these guys [Israeli psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos
Tversky] delivered is, the world is a far less certain place than our mind is
prepared to be in,” Lewis said. “Reality is, as Amos said, reality is not a
point; it’s a cloud of possibilities. At any given time, you’re in a
probabilistic situation. But people don’t think that way and they should. They
should think probabilistically and statistically about many problems. If you
are seeking the advice of some expert, a financial adviser, a doctor, or a
political pundit, or someone telling you which sports team to bet on, if that
person exhibits total certainty about his predictions, you know you have a
problem already.”
A book Jim Morrison might have carried around had it been written in 1970. In
this case, it's the real deal. As we used to say back then, 'it's a
mind-blower!'
A great book by Kahneman (who won a Nobel Prize in economics for his work on reasoning under uncertainty): "Thinking Fast and Slow". It will really change your attitude toward life...
ReplyDeleteBeen finding some pretty interesting small cap ideas this year...surprised given how far the Russell 2000 moved last year.
ReplyDeleteOne thing I've been thinking more about is the biotech space. Contemplating taking a 3x Long position on biotechs with LABU and just holding it for a while. The reason being the advancement in technology has been truly incredible the more I read about it. Take a look at companies like EDIT/TNLA/CRSP, NH, ONVO. The space these guys are in may inevitably change the course of medicine. Editing DNA, printing liver tissues, just crazy stuff. Plus, biotech have been in a bear for 1.5 years and I think it might be time for it to turn around. The pharma space is probably going to be hurt sentiment-wise for a while longer if they bring pricing bidding into play so I'm thinking the money in that space will shift a little to biotechs that don't have concerns about drug pricing. Just a thought.
Getting the timing is important with those 3x longs but if you can catch them around the bottom of big down moves you can make a lot of money...just look at SOXL or TNA near last years lows.
DeleteAnd with biotechs you don't have the concerns you had with say ERX (3x long energy) where you have massive supply issues and potential long term concerns with alt energy.
DeleteMike, if you want to see what is *really* happening with biotechs, you need to look at XBI, since it does not "evaporate" as a result of oscillations. XBI was in a short bear between July 2015 and Feb 2016. For almost a year not it has been making higher lows and higher highs, so I would say its bear has ended a year ago.
DeleteI just opened a small starter position in XBI, which I'll hold for the long term. Will buy more on a dip below $60.
DeleteWhy is GNK up so much in the past week, but NMM is barely up? Arbitrage, anyone?
ReplyDeleteQuestion 2: why are both GNK and NMM moving up in the past few days despite BDI moving down?
Emerging markets (as represented by EEM) continues to break away from the static action in US indexes, rising +1.5% Monday, and another +0.7% in early trading this morning. The 'news?' As far as I can tell, the financial media has yet to even notice, which is about as ideal as it gets!
ReplyDeleteOT: Cool site if your travelling to another state and looking interesting things to do.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.onlyinyourstate.com/southern-california/point-mugu-park-so-cal/
Investors on the sidelines had one last chance to board the Trump rally while it stalled the past three weeks. Instead, most of them hesitated amid fears of a downside breakout stoked by media headlines. Now they're forced to chase, fueling additional gains. DJIA +160 points to a new all-time high. EEM (emerging markets) +0.9%. EWZ (Brazil) +1.2%. VT (world stock market) +0.7% to a 52-wk high.
ReplyDeleteI recall a recent headline proclaiming that Trump's political agenda may in fact have constructed an enormous 'wall of worry.' I don't disagree. If that's the case, then this rally may run much higher than we think possible (and may also spike more quickly than we expect). 'The Undoing Project' (a recent book recommendation) has much to say about 'stuff like that.' Don't let your personal opinion of Trump blind you to the very real reaction of markets (the prices at which stocks change hands are real decisions made by real investors!) to the decisions and policies flowing out of Washington this week. Some of our most successful Presidents have been jerks in real life (at least behind closed doors). And often truly 'nice' leaders fail to accomplish much.
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