The selloff in global markets this morning
provides the perfect backdrop to consider Nigam Arora's latest post:
provides the perfect backdrop to consider Nigam Arora's latest post:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-the-case-for-dow-30000-in-trumps-first-term-2017-02-17?mod=
Nigam is a smart guy. We know the market abhors
smart-guy opinions, which has fostered an industry built by guys who are less
intrepid and attempt to simply 'let the market tell them where it's headed.'
(They haven't done so well either.)
smart-guy opinions, which has fostered an industry built by guys who are less
intrepid and attempt to simply 'let the market tell them where it's headed.'
(They haven't done so well either.)
be right. The Trump factor is so far out of left field that it has the
potential to take the DJIA up to 30000 (33450, actually) and the SPX up to 3800
(a +65% gain) over the next four years. Why? Think back to the 'Dow
50000' baloney from the late Nineties. Investors 'understood' the dot.com
rationale behind it. No one understands Trump. Which is exactly why
Nigam's forecast may prove accurate.
potential to take the DJIA up to 30000 (33450, actually) and the SPX up to 3800
(a +65% gain) over the next four years. Why? Think back to the 'Dow
50000' baloney from the late Nineties. Investors 'understood' the dot.com
rationale behind it. No one understands Trump. Which is exactly why
Nigam's forecast may prove accurate.
When I commented on the possibility of DJIA 33k by the end of Trump's four years, she replied 'I hope not!' She dislikes Trump as much as the market abhors smart guys, and will probably continue to dislike him. No one needs to like Trump, but don't let that throw you off your game.
ReplyDelete'She' refers to my wife, of course.
DeleteDJIA by 33K in 4 years means that technology stocks will follow suit, which means that Silicon Valley employees will keep getting their huge stock grants, which means the property prices in the Silicon Valley will keep going up, which means that my chances of finally buying a home (after I missed out on 2nd_ave's advice to sell my positions in 2012 when gold topped and buy a nice cheap home at the bottom of the real estate pullback) will be going down...
ReplyDeleteFor now, however, I should just keep focusing on rebuilding my potential down payment, and with this in mind, maybe I should just let my winners (like AKS) run instead of taking profits too soon? I already have double my regular trading profit in AKS, but its chart look SOOO good and I am tempted to hold onto it until it at least reaches the previous highs at $10...
ReplyDeleteAs for CBMX, it actually did touch $4.25 on Feb 13, but it was someone else's order getting executed ahead of mine... After that, as I had thought, it is having now a pullback below $4. But if this pullback stops at $3.80 or above, then the next move up will be to $4.50 or above. So I decided to remove my sell limit at $4.25 and see how high the next move takes it.
ReplyDeleteHey Boyz,
ReplyDeleteFSLR starting to look good.
Missing Hawaii, very relaxing song with the majesty of Hawaiian scenery.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9N9sfwmM9-Y
All of the solars are setting up nicely. I opened SPWR yesterday at 6.90. BTW, I spoke to a huge local solar guy today and he still uses SEDG exclusively.
Delete2nd- Remind me please. Are you still in cash?
Take a look at CSIQ. Looks exactly the same as FSLR until today.
DeleteMark- It shouldn't be difficult to follow my positions right now. I've been long a combination of VT/VTWSX + EEM/VEIEX + FXI/ASHR + EWZ + RSX since January 21, 2016. I made one partial sell last year (can't recall exactly when) trying to 'time' the markets, only to re-discover how badly our forecasts can be-> then promptly reestablished the partial positions a few days later (which may have cost me a percentage point).
DeleteYeah Mark most solars look good.
DeleteFSLR earnings out after mkt so I stepped aside. Gut is they will be good but still a coin flip.
Sold SPWR at 8.30 +20%. FSLR/CSIQ earnings so-so.
DeleteAs I had suspected, a refusal by shipper stocks to decline when BDI declined from 1000 to below 700 prepared them for a major jump when the BDI trend had finally reversed. GNK, as always, is doing much better than NMM, but I knew it already and chose to play this move with GNK instead of NMM last week, when GNK started to creep up from its early January bottom...
ReplyDeleteBDI keeps moving up, which is expected given its tendency to trend in one direction for a long time. In the light of this, I have just doubled my NMM position at $1.94 and placed a sell stop limit under my whole position at the post-earnings low of $1.82/$1.80. I think the expected gain on this trade is much larger than the expected loss, given a well-defined stop level nearby.
ReplyDeleteSPWR- Crap! I got shaken out way too easy!!
ReplyDeleteLook at the action of FSLR the last three days, if you use stops, they will eat you alive.
DeleteI trade it a few times yesterday and tried to buy back on the close but never hit the bid. Still only 4.2% off from where I sold so one can always buy back in.
Trading sooo much fun.
CBMX is doing well this morning. Congratulations, Mike!
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think about competition mentioned in this article:
http://stocknewsunion.com/tag/combimatrix-corp/
David - This one reminds me a lot of YRCW. Even has the warrants that are scaring people off. I think it gets to $10+
DeleteWhat's up with X and AKS today??? They were doing so well before... Is it a brutal shakeout? For those of you who don't have any steel positions yet, now might be a good time to establish them. In fact, I might add to my AKS position today, since the stop is so close by and the maximum loss is small.
ReplyDeleteThe rumor:
DeleteReport: Trump to push infrastructure spending plan to 2018
So the steel has been trading on rumors? That's pathetic...
DeleteWell, rumors are one thing, but the stock action is something else. Since the pullback in AKS stopped short of the previous low at $7.60, I think now is a good time to enter or add. So I just added to my original position and placed a sell stop at $7.80 -- the place where I entered my original position.
DeleteWhat's up with a 10% drop in the GDXJ today in the face of only a 0.5% drop in GLD???
ReplyDeleteBDI has just had its first down day after the recent uptrend, and so I decided to take profits on GNK at $11.60 for the shares I purchased at $9.76.
ReplyDeleteNice little trade there.
DeleteGNK would not have rallied today if I had not taken profits yesterday. :) But then NMM would not have rallied too, and I still have some of it.
DeleteI did not take profits on AKS when it rose above $9, thinking that I'll try the strategy of letting my winners run, and as a result I missed a complete round trip on it when it dropped below $8 last week. I did increase my position by 50%, though, at $8.07, and now I don't want to make the same mistake again and so I just took off those additional shares at $8.73. The time-tested strategy, as I recall, is to take *partial* profits whenever they appear, and then let the *rest* of the position run, if it chooses.
ReplyDeleteOK, I just talked myself into taking partial profits at $4.95 on CBMX, which I purchased at $3.60.
ReplyDeleteIf Mike is not taking partial profits yet, he must have the nerves of steel!
Moved the money I got from selling CBMX into GDX at $22.95. I did manage to sell all my GDXJ at $42 a couple of weeks ago, and now I am reloading this trade via GDX. With inflation creeping in, I think it is wise to have some GDX long-term...
ReplyDeleteShould have done this switch today, rather than yesterday. :(
DeleteYTRA...I spent sometime trying to find info on this one. How long are you willing to stick with it TOF?
ReplyDeleteShit I dropped it a while ago as soon as it fell below my mental stop. I still like it if its got a huge disparity with MMYT. MMYT fully diluted market cap is like $3B now.
DeleteENPH/TSLA- It appears TSLA is ditching it's DC Powerwall option and delaying the AC one.
ReplyDeleteFCX in the gap fill tempts me.
ReplyDeleteIt finally did drop below the level where I sold it last! :) The copper chart does not support the FCX pullback, as it is close to its one-year high, way above its late December pullback, while FCX is way below its 1-year high, closing today exactly at the level of its late December pullback. So fundamentally, now is a decent time to buy FCX. Placed a buy stop limit for it at $13.40/$13.50.
DeleteCBMX. Anything moving this today?
ReplyDeleteGot stopped out today of my remaining position in AKS at the level at which I entered it. Could have had a decent profit if I had taken profits on its first rally above $9 in mid-February. Ended up with taking only partial profits on a second smaller rally on March 1. The 6-month chart now gives me a feeling the more downside is in store.
ReplyDeleteMetals are breaking below the recent support levels (AKS, FCX), oil stocks too (RIG, etc.). Is the Trump rally over?
ReplyDeleteI'll try to use a new approach to trading now and will hold off on buying until the charts bottom out for at least a week and then start going up.
In the spirit of taking partial profits, I just sold at 2.22 the shared of NMM I added at 1.92 a couple of weeks ago, during its post-earnings slump. Placed a sell limit for 1/2 of my remaining position at 2.50.
ReplyDeleteToday is March 8th, a big holiday for all women from ex-USSR, where this holiday was called "The International Women's Day" and was the equivalent of Mother's Day in the US. Last time NMM gapped up for me was on Valentine's Day. So there seems to be a connection between holidays for women and the gifts that NMM brings to me. :)) Or maybe it is another hint that I should use today's profits to give a gift to my wife? :)
ReplyDeleteJust reloaded at $10.20 the shares of GNK I sold last week at $11.60. Will exit if either BDI starts going down or GNK breaks below the February low of $8.88. As for the upside expectations, I am counting on the black box algos doing arbitrage between GNK and NMM -- over the past week NMM has become relatively more expensive than GNK, and many algos are just tracking the industry by routinely buying recent losers and selling recent winners.
ReplyDeleteBesides, starting early October, the lows in GNK all lie on a nice upward sloping line, and right now GNK is touching that line again. This is, supposedly, a good place to buy.
DeletePreparing to buy more HLX if it rises above $7.50. I wanted to place a buy stop limit order at that price now, but its current ask is at $7.90...
ReplyDeleteHLX raised $220M in January by selling shares at $8.65. The fact that Big Boyz snatched all those shares at that price means, I think, that the price is good for long-term investors. So $7.50 should be an even better price for long-term investors. :)
Now the system allowed me to place the buy stop limit order for HLX at $7.5/$7.6.
DeleteAlso preparing to start scaling into FCX if it drops below $12 or if it carves out a bottom here.
ReplyDeleteBDI keeps moving up, GNK did not decline today, so maybe its pullback is over. Just bought more GNK at $10.20.
ReplyDelete'Jobs' on deck. The markets have pulled back nicely this week, heightening the odds of a launch on Friday.
ReplyDeleteIt doesn't feel like that to me, 2nd_ave. Metals are a bellwether for Trump's policies, and the fact they are going down suggests (to me) that the euphoria is over.
DeleteWhy don't you open a small trading account and have fun there? At the very least, you can go short there for short periods of time, when the market is tired, and that will hedge your large long term position.
DeleteIf you look at the 1-year chart for GNK, you'll see that it has a tendency of spiking, then coming back down, making a nice round bottom, and then spiking again. Right now it seems to be making another one of those nice round bottoms. I took advantage of this pattern several times in the past 6 months. Once a certain pattern is found to work, it makes sense to increase the position size. So I have just doubled my GNK position at $10.45. Will exit it if GNK drops below the recent low of $10. So a natural stop for this trade is nearby, but the upside is much bigger. I think GNK can actually break above the recent tops at $12 this time and go up to the sky. BDI is powering up, NMM is going up -- the black box algos will *have* to move GNK up as well.
ReplyDeleteMy buy stop on HLX has been triggered at $7.50.
ReplyDeletePlaced a sell limit for it at $8.30
DeleteI think CBMX has pulled back sufficiently to shake off some weak hands. So I have just reloaded at $4.55 the shares I sold last week at $4.95. In order to raise money for this trade, I sold at 70.77 the shares of XBI I purchased in January at $62.35 when Mike drew our attention to biotechs. Thank you, Mike! :) Now let's hope CMBX works out as well. :)
ReplyDeleteWhat's up with my crappy oil stocks (HLX, BTE) rallying despite oil being down more than 2%? Are traders sensing that oil is approaching its previous support level, and so they are buying crappy stocks ahead of the oil bounce?
ReplyDeleteI had a sell limit order at $2.50 for NMM, but I decided to just sell some shares now at $2.47 so as to cover the margin debt that I created while piling into GNK. I think making a lateral move from NMM to GNK is very reasonable now, given the large spike that took place in NMM over the past week. GNK should catch up next week.
ReplyDeletePlaced a sell limit at $2.75 for my remaining shares of NMM. The current spike is asking for a pullback, especially if NMM gets to $2.75 on Monday...
ReplyDeleteNice jump by GNK at the close. Should be good for a run up to $12 next week, unless the uptrend in BDI reverses...
ReplyDeleteAfter steadily declining for seven trading days, FXI (China 'H' Shares) + EEM (Emerging Markets) are set to gap up to 8-day highs. This is 'how the market works,' and although easily recognizable as such there really is no good 'explanation.'
ReplyDeleteJust sold at $11.20 1/4 of my large GNK position (bought these shares at 10.20 last week). Just to make sure that the rest of my position runs much higher. :)
ReplyDeletePlaced a sell limit at $12.20 for another 1/4 of my original GNK position.
DeleteIf today's jump in FCX is not just a one-day wonder, then I want to be in its new rally ASAP. Placed a buy stop limit order for it just above today's highs, at $12.80/$12.90.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Still in CBMX? I had an order in at 4.40 that didn't fill.
ReplyDeleteHey man - Sorry yeah I've been in it for a while...just holding it as I see it getting over $10 eventually. Holding this, EXPE, and bought some FCX in the mid $12's. I sold EGY a while ago as it stopped moving up and XOM started crashing which was a sign in my opinion that oil was going to get weak. haven't had a lot of time to look at stuff though. Are you still holding the same stuff?
DeletePretty much. Sold some SEDG on the bounce. Still full on AAPL. I did buy 500 SPY today. Not sure what I'll do with it. We might have had a really good op this am in energy. Felt like it to me, which is why I felt OK with the SPY.
DeleteNice move!
DeleteEGY earnings reaction a buying opp?
ReplyDeleteDamn, some fairly big E&P boys getting hammered today...
ReplyDeleteMike, you said you bought some FCX. What are your thoughts about this:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/freeport-no-return-business-usual-091003833.html
Hey David - I am just playing the gap fill to be honest. Looking for a little relief rally. FCX has issues no doubt.
DeleteLIQUIDATION ALERT-> Closing all positions today. All ETFs (ASHR, EEM, EWZ, FXI, RSX, VT) closed @ 1205 pm (pst). Mutual funds (VEIEX, VTWSX) will be sold end of day.
ReplyDeleteI remember you talking a couple of years ago about needing only small % gains to get the retirement account to where you need it to be. Well, I'd say a 33% gain from the lows last year in just 13-14 months should suffice. Excellent moves. Hope you get there a little faster!
DeleteWhat was your reasoning, 2nd_ave? Do you think a large pullback in the market is just around the corner? Overly bullish sentiment can disappeare after a small pullback, and I recall you didn't want to bother with timing the small ones...
DeleteMy sell limit for GNK was hit this morning at 12.20 for the shares I purchased last week at 10.20. Just moved that money into NMM at 2.22 so as to replace the shares I sold last week at 2.47.
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