What might the least-anticipated event going forward?
I'm leaning towards an upside breakout in both the SPX (currently
off -0.2% to 2386) and EEM (currently off -0.7% to
40.29). Capitulation by bears may require an upside rally that blows past
SPX 2400.
...or Longs capitulate first due to extreme boredom....
ReplyDeleteThe commodity longs are not bored today. :) My positions are getting crushed...
ReplyDeleteDecided to add to my NMM position at $1.60 -- have not seen this price in a while... Placed a sell limit at $1.80.
ReplyDeleteDavid - this kind of move in NMM / GNK / SBLK was what I was expecting for a while and is the reason I avoided them. Just thought other stocks I was watching had better risk/reward. Hope you're doing well.
DeleteThe bears mounted a pretty decent drive at the open. Then they turned it over.
ReplyDeleteI'm now long X (US Steel), RIG (Transocean), PBR (Petrobras), XLE (Energy), XES (y'all know what that is), and RYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets).
Opened XLE at the close and added to XES.
ReplyDeleteClosing all positions this morning for relatively minor gains. Looking ahead to Monday, I think there's a good chance the markets 'gap up' following the election results in France. However, that's not the kind of play that interests me. I'll wait for the next selloff.
ReplyDeleteAwesome timing on your entry yesterday!
DeleteCBMX- I would have thought it would stick better. A strong close would be way better though.
ReplyDeleteI still think this gets to double digits this year. Its being held down by people trading around the warrants at $5.17. But the valuation is still silly given 60% margins, $16M run rate in revs and close to breakeven.
DeleteMike, what does $16M run rate mean in the context of 60℅ margins?
DeleteCBMX hit my sell limit at $5.25 for the shares I reloaded at $4.75. My next sell limit is at $5.75.
ReplyDeleteSomeone must have read and understood Mike's post above better than me. :) CBMX hit my sell limit at $5.75 for the shares I reloaded at $5.05. Now I am down to my core position, which I am holding since $3.60. Placed a buy limit at $5.05 so as to reload my trading position again.
DeleteRotated the revenue from CBMX sale into EMES at $11.10. Placed a sell limit at $12.10.
ReplyDeleteAlso, rotated the revenue from CBMX sale at $5.75 into EMES at $11.00. Placed a sell limit at $12.00 for these and for the other shares purchased earlier today.
DeleteDavid - There have been several buyouts in the same space as CBMX and those companies had 40's % margins. There's massive leverage in this business. Think of it like this:
ReplyDeleteavg sales rep is doing say $700k in sales (probably higher b/c they have 10 reps and are doing $15.2M sales). At 60% margins that is $420k in gross profit. How much do you think they pay that sales rep in total compensation? maybe $200k? The rest drops to the bottom line. So that $700k in sales yields 30% NET margins. That's massive leverage.
So all of the talk right now is about breakeven Q4, but that's not really what we should be looking at. it's what happens when they hire 10 more reps and are doing $3M in net profit?
DeleteAlso, this past quarter they had $500k in losses but all of the annual operating expenses for being a public company and all of the year end bonuses are accrued in Q1. So actual loss was prob more like $250k
So if each rep brings them $200K in the bottom line profits, why are they still losing money? I am not very familiar with running a business...
DeleteIf Mike is right, CBMX should double.
DeleteCongratulations to all the CBMX holders here!
DeleteNMM hit my sell limit today at $1.80 for the shares I purchased at $1.60 during the crash on Thursday. I thought EMES would also hit my sell limit at $12 today, but it didn't...
ReplyDeleteReloaded NMM at 1.74 and placed a sell limit at 1.84
ReplyDeleteI just noticed on
Deletehttp://www.dryships.com/pages/report.php
That BDI ticked up today, so I moved my sell limit up to 1.94
Coal has to still be a big drag on that index. I'm not a firm believer.
DeletePlaced a sell limit at $6.90 for my core position in CBMX. If this order gets hit tomorrow, then CBMX will be so extended that I would be really surprised if I don't get to reload it under $6.
ReplyDeleteOn a second thought, broke up that sell limit in two equal batches: at 6.50 and 7.00.
DeleteThe one at $6.50 was hit. Placed a buy limit at $6 to replace it.
Delete$6.05 is close enough -- reloaded 1/2 of my core position that was sold earlier this morning at $6.50.
DeletePlaced a buy limit at $5.50 to buy more CBMX.
DeleteAAPL- Seroiusly considering selling here. I just have a hard time thinking people are chasing it now.
ReplyDeleteYep. Sold all. +57% at 15% tax rate. My largest $ win ever.
DeleteAlso sold a large SPY position. +9.8%
DeleteGreat! It's the $ win that counts! :)
DeleteEMES has finally started to move up and hit my sell limit at $12 for the two lots of shares I purchased at $11 and $11.10 last week.
ReplyDeleteToo bad CBMX stopped $0.05 short of my buy limit at $5.50 today. It could have been another nice round trip, all within a day. :)
ReplyDeleteDecided to take advantage of the two-day rebound in GDX and once again sold covered calls against my position. This time I sold June 30 $23.50 calls at $0.65 each. I wouldn't mind parting with my position at $24.15 (it cost basis was reduced to $21, after I sold covered calls against it in April and then repurchased them $1 lower), and I wouldn't mind reducing its cost basis by $0.65 if GDX does not end up above $23.50 by June 30...
ReplyDelete