Friday, June 23, 2017

6/23/17 I Believe In This Market

It's been two trading weeks since I reopened positions in
emerging markets and energy.  Without exception, each calendar day has
included one or more articles by the financial media proclaiming the dangers of
being invested at this point in the bull market (due to narrow leadership,
overvaluation, or investor complacence) or the certainty that markets have

I have a different take.  I think the global market
(especially the two sectors which I have over-weighted) is doing well for
fundamental reasons.  Prices are doing what they're supposed to do in a
bull market (each pullback initiates the next leg higher).  I believe that
the US indexes experienced a bear market in 2011 (-19% is close enough for me),
making the current bull just six years old.  I also believe that both
emerging markets and energy experienced brutal bear markets between 2014 and
2016, from which both sectors will launch what will in hindsight be referred to
as remarkable rallies.  It's just that none of the above was evident in
the past two weeks!


  1. CBMX is taking off... Is it going to make yet another higher high, after making a higher low in mid-June? Take a look at its 6-month chart.

  2. Damn... CBMX morning rally derailed by the broad market sell-off...