What if 2017 goes down not just as a phenomenal year for
global stocks, but also the year investors embrace the idea of a new era for
the global economy? Coincidentally (or not), Donald Trump's legacy may in
retrospect be viewed in terms of 'the new kid hated by all his freshman year
prior to quarterbacking a winning season three years later.'
Almost cut my hair
Happened just the other day
It's gettin' kind of long
I could've said it was in my way
Happened just the other day
It's gettin' kind of long
I could've said it was in my way
But I didn't and I wonder why
I feel like letting my freak flag fly
And I feel like I owe it to someone
I feel like letting my freak flag fly
And I feel like I owe it to someone
The only way to participate in a parabolic move is to
overcome our fear of heights. The definition of a 'phenomenal' year (or
two) for global stocks? An endless stream of new highs. Personally,
I feel like letting this rogue rally run it's course.
Your right 2nd....it will be ok, and it will be better.
ReplyDeleteI agree with the post above and am rethinking my more 'flat' position.
Decided to cancel my sell stop order on BTE for now. It is too stretched on the downside and will definitely bounce soon. Especially with USO holding up well.
ReplyDeleteIn fact, I just bought a little more BTE at $2.41
DeletePlaced a sell limit at $2.7 for this lot.
DeleteBought some more at $2.32 and added this lot in to the sell limit at $2.7.
DeleteBought more CBMX at $7.55, placed a sell limit at $7.95 for this lot.
ReplyDeleteWTF is going on with oil stocks??? Why are they collapsing despite oil being at a multi month high?
ReplyDeleteAnd what is going on with CBMX? Is it no longer getting bought out?
ReplyDeleteI have a reorder in at 7.20.
DeleteRUN sure had an 'event' the other day.
ReplyDeleteFSLR- Wow.
ReplyDeleteSold the last 1/3 of SEDG at 32.20.
ReplyDeleteSold XES for tax reasons and bout 2X as much XLE.
ReplyDeleteUSO breaks out to a new 6-month high and the oil stocks are finally following!
ReplyDeleteThe CBMX scare is over. Should have bought more at $7.30 yesterday... But then, I bought BTE instead, which is outperforming CBMX so far today. :)
ReplyDeleteAMZN closed near its high on Friday, +128 points (+13.2%) to 1101. Trading volume in the stock was the highest of the year.
ReplyDeleteI don't think the spike was due to short-covering. (In fact, shorts who failed to cover after hours on Thursday @ 1048 were also unlikely to have covered on Friday. They will probably end up covering around 1181.)
There was very little selling pressure, and in my opinion, most fund managers holding large positions in the stock did not sell into the gap up.
What happened with AMZN is likely to carry over into the broader market.
As an aside, I've noticed many commentators making remarks about overvaluation based on the CAPE ratio. My take on that? The ratio arbitrarily uses a 10-year average (why not 7 years, or 20 years?). Markets have been around a lot longer than the CAPE (if I'm going to use a timing tool, it won't be the CAPE). I'm betting the CAPE can become more extended than traders think possible (how many times have we heard that home prices in the Bay Area are unsustainable?).
The current global market rally may go down in history as the greatest of them all. Who's to say otherwise? 2017 is setting records for low volatility. That can't possibly continue, right? (How do we know? We may see a stretch of several years with low volatility. We've all seen players at the roulette table bet against a string of reds, walk over to the ATM to continue the bet, and finally walk away completely wiped out.) The current rally is unsustainable. (Says who? What's normal? In my opinion, it's normal to have spectacular runs in the market that defy 'logic.' [It's also my opinion that the current rally is quite rational->global growth and earnings have been good!]).
It's 'easy' to hate this rally. That's not a profitable approach. The correct approach? Get used to it, and adapt.
Despite a somewhat negative open for US indexes, I notice that AMZN (Amazon), MSFT (Microsoft) INTC (Intel), and GOOG (Alphabet) are all holding or adding to last Friday's gains.
ReplyDeleteChina indexes are down about a percent on renewed concerns re deleveraging in the financial sector. But hey, that's been a concern all month and I see it as just another excuse for traders to take profits against the backdrop of a +25% uptrend this year.
Decided to cash in at $2.58 the shares of BTE I purchased last week at $2.32. My next sell limit is at $2.70 for the shares purchased at $2.41.
ReplyDeleteNice trades, David.
DeleteThanks. BTE is highly leveraged to oil -- they are saying that they turn cashflow positive with oil above $50, so with oil breaking out to new 6-month highs, BTE *had* to respond.
DeleteGood consolidation in US and China indexes today (the only indexes that needed one). Intraday declines of -100 points in the DJIA and -13 points in the SPX + -1% declines in China feels about right. VT (world market) declined just -0.1%.
ReplyDeleteBTE hit sell limit at $2.7 for the shares I purchased last week at $2.41.
ReplyDeleteMy next sell limit is at $2.8 for 1/2 of the shares I purchased last week at $2.54, and then at $2.9 for the other 1/2 of the shares.
DeleteReloaded at $4.64 the shares of AKS I sold at $5.9 two weeks ago. I am hoping it will have the same behavior as X after its 20% drop -- a steady ramp up. Even though AKS had a slightly negative EPS during the latest quarter (announced today -- hence the drop), analysts are still forecasting it to have EPS of 0.86 in 2018.
ReplyDeleteAs Buffett taught us, the stock price is supposed to be a claim on the *long term* cashflow from the company, looking out at least 10 years. So looking out just 1.5 years is totally reasonable, I think. :)
DeleteRaised my buy limit on CBMX from $7.00 to $7.10 -- who knows, it might get triggered today. :)
ReplyDeleteNice string of trades, David!
ReplyDeleteThanks. :) However, it is not the trades that I compete that count -- what counts is the trades I *don't* complete, such as the big paper loss I took today on the shares of AKS that I purchased around $6.30. Looks like I'll have to wait for some time before I can sell those shares profitably...
DeleteBTE hit my sell limits at $2.8 and $2.9 today for the share lots I purchased at $2.54.
ReplyDeleteFor some reason, the change I made to my CBMX buy limit order was cancelled, and my original buy limit at $7 was executed today. Placed a sell limit at $7.50 for these shares.
ReplyDeleteI thought of buying X yesterday, feeling that its drop yesterday was just in sympathy with AKS. THAT would have been a nice trade -- buying X yesterday and switching into AKS today...
ReplyDeleteA strong earnings report by BABA (Alibaba) has the stock rallying above 190. Closing my position @ 192.1x premarket. Still bullish on the company.
ReplyDeleteBABA (Alibaba) is now in the red @ 185.77. FB (Facebook) is also selling off after its earnings beat. US indexes are mixed, with the DJIA +40 points while the SPX and NDQ are off about -0.1%. EEM (emerging markets) and VT (world market) are flat.
ReplyDeleteThere are two upcoming events (Apple earnings tonight, and the 'jobs report' tomorrow morning) that may act as catalysts for further gains, but in my opinion the rally feels tired.
I have closed all positions in individual stocks, and will close fund positions in VTWSX (world market) and VEIEX (emerging markets) end of day.
Looking ahead, I think global markets will rally a few percent more into year end. But I'm hoping for a pullback before that happens.
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