One advantage of sticking to my own view of the markets is
that it allows me to tune out the noise, and there's plenty of noise to tune
out.
Are markets really extended either in terms of time or
valuation? I don't think so. If we use January 2016 (rather than March
2009) as the beginning of the current bull, then we're still in the early
innings. Valuations in the US may be
somewhat extended, but the valuation of global markets (as a whole) is not.
In my opinion, the world economy is still in expansion mode,
with its 'boom' period still ahead.
Sitting out the remainder of the current cycle (easy to do if we read
media headlines re an imminent global trade war, an inverted yield curve, or
predictions of the next crash) may turn out to be an expensive mistake.
April 22, 2018? I
think it's a great time to be long the global market!
Inflation expectations just rose to a 1-year high:
ReplyDeletehttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?category_id=0&graph_id=87988
Decided to use the recent pullback in GDXJ as an opportunity to sell some June $33 puts on it at $1.25. If executed, that will give me some GDXJ near 1-year lows, which I think is a good entry.
BTE is having one hell of a run over the past few weeks. The reason is obvious: I decided to fully sell out of it, after holding it for two years and not seeing any results...
ReplyDeleteI purchased some April $51 puts on VXX during the market crash in February, and last week I decided not to close them and wait until a short VXX position will appear in my account. I believe the double bottom we have seen in S&P will be in place for some time, volatility will normalize, and VXX should start evaporating once again.
ReplyDeleteBDI keeps climbing up. NMM is very correlated with BDI on the 1-year chart. In mid-March, when BDI had a local peak at 1212, NMM rose to $2.2. Today, BDI closed at 1305. Make your own conclusions about where NMM is heading...
ReplyDeleteJust reloaded at $1.815 the shares of NMM I sold at $1.835 last week. NMM is a better value now than it was back then, so a reload is justified.
DeleteBDI is up to 1330 today. Just purchased more NMM at $1.75.
ReplyDelete1230 pm pst>
ReplyDeleteDJIA -600 points at the intraday lows, and now about +0.5% above.
I hate to say it, but today's selloff is enough to turn me bearish. The path of least resistance is now lower.
I'll give the indexes another few minutes to rally let's say another +1% (very unlikely). If not, I plan to protect my YTD gains. (As of last night, +4.3%->today's decline will slice off about a percentage point).
Now +3.6% YTD, and +4.3% relative to my benchmark (Q1 dividend included).
DeleteThe decision came down to whether I would be buying into the decline had I been in cash. No.
One of my favorite Joni Mitchell songs>
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VPbt0nfwbMQ
The DJIA has recovered from an early -200-point drop to trade green. Will that be it? I think so. It could have been much worse.
VT (world index) -0.23%. EEM (emerging markets) -0.86%.
After a one-day hiatus, I will reopen positions in VTWSX and VEIEX at the close. Was that a lot of work for nothing? Not really. I side-stepped a potentially serious downdraft (of course, that downdraft may occur tomorrow and I'll deal with it then), and managed to incrementally extend my lead over the benchmark(s) (plural if we count emerging markets separately).
What's interesting is that both VT and EEM are currently trading about midway between their respective 52-wk low-and-high prints.
I think the traders just got too cocky after seeing the double bottom and rushed all in, temporarily leaving us with no buyers. Their confidence had to be shaken, which is what the last few trading days have accomplished.
DeleteBDI is up to 1376. Purchased more NMM at $1.79.
ReplyDeleteA stellar earnings report for AMZN (Amazon) after the close. After gaining +4% in the regular session, the stock adds another +7% after hours to 1621-> a new all-time high.
ReplyDeleteThe Naz is set to gap up hard (>1.5%) on the heels of positive earnings reports from AMZN (Amazon), INTC (Intel) and MSFT (Microsoft).
ReplyDeleteGenerally, it pays off to sell when I start thinking 'it doesn't get any better than this!'
BABA (Alibaba) and SQ (Square) closed pre-market on +2%/+3% gaps up for two-day gains of about +4%.
X - WTF??? The trend was going so well...
ReplyDeleteAnyway, picked up more X at $32.60. In the past, when both X and AKS have collapsed, they quickly resumed their uptrend...
Unimpressive follow through today. Opening gaps were all sold, and US indexes (QQQ included) trading flat near the close.
ReplyDeleteI will be closing all remaining positions (mainly VTWSX and VEIEX) end of day (which includes a -4% loss on TWTR [Twitter]).
I'm going to summarize my weekend reads thus far (which includes the highly-recommended weekly summary by Urban Carmel), and add a few of my own anecdotes.
ReplyDeleteHow do things look for the remainder of 2018? In my opinion, quite good!
Global markets have consolidated over the past three months-> something that happens almost every year. Not surprising at all given a +20% gain in 2017 followed by an additional +10% in January. What's the average time span of past consolidations? The time between new highs has ranged between 30 weeks to 50 weeks. So the current pause may last through the summer.
Sentiment measures have turned mostly negative, although not at washout lows-> still, a considerable reversal from the euphoria seen in January.
Macroeconomic data continue to support an optimistic outlook. Unemployment claims at a five-decade low. Increases in pay/benefits averaged almost +3% (year over year) in the first quarter-> the last time we experienced this was probably 2008. First quarter GDP growth was the sharpest since 2015. Speaking of GDP, the real personal consumption expenditures component of GDP (which accounts for almost 70% of GDP), rose +2.8% in the last quarter of 2017, and will likely approach the 3-5% range seen in past expansionary periods since 1980. New home sales +9%/ new home starts +11% in March (compared to a year earlier). Manufacturing component of industrial production rose +2.7% in February (year over year), the best in four years. The list goes on. It's all positive.
Rising rates. The financial media loves to debate the impact of higher rates. If we tune out the noise, I think it comes down to this:
(a) The current 10-year yield is about 3%.Over the past several decades, rising yields below 5% have been associated with a rising equity market. This makes perfect sense, as a growing economy translates into a higher demand for money. I'll start to worry about the correlations with yields >5% when we get there, which may be years away.
(b) To the extent that rising yields reflect a growing economy-> hey, it's all good! A growing economy generally means more jobs, higher pay, and an uptrend in corporate earnings.
(c) The 'Fed' has tightened seven times in the past four decades. Since 1980, the broad indexes have peaked only after the final rate hike each time. Odds are we're a long way from the final. Prior to 1980? Sure, the Fed killed the stock market in the late Seventies by raising rates, but if you were around then (as I was), you'll recall that the Fed was battling double-digit inflation, and ultimately tightened the federal funds rate to 20%! (The federal funds rate is currently 1.5%).
All in all, things look good. A positive macro outlook combined with fairly negative sentiment is generally regarded as a very good time to buy/own stocks. The best scenario might be buying into a summer decline, then selling into a global melt-up that finally unfolds in the last quarter.
In case you're wondering, David. Things look good for X. I picked some up near the close on Friday.
DeleteCan you say a little more about it? I'd love to hear that! :) If things look good, why did traders sell it so aggressively on Friday?
DeleteReopening a position in FXI (China 'H' Shares) @ 47.02. Following last night's +528-point (+1.74%) rally in Hong Kong I felt left behind. FXI opened this morning +1.4% higher @ 47.52, but I like it here @ 47.02 - a reasonable reentry just +0.32% higher.
ReplyDeleteAdded positions in RSX (Russia) and SQ (Square) near their intraday lows-> 20.99/ 46.20.
DeleteNow might be the time to add to ROYT, but I almost ran out of my margin... ROYT has just announced that there will be no dividend this month because they spend a big part of their annual capital expenditure budget all in one month, exceeding their revenues.
ReplyDeleteReopening both VTWSX (world market) and VEIEX (emerging markets) at the close at what I expected would be a -0.5% discount to Friday's exits.
ReplyDeleteVTWSX (world market) closed off -0.53%, more or less in line with VT (-0.64%). Surprisingly, VEIEX (emerging markets) closed up (+0.03%), albeit by a penny - a major divergence compared to EEM, which closed down -0.7%. There is underlying strength in this market, which keeps me bullish.
2nd_ave, here is a not-so-optimistic view of our economic future:
ReplyDeletehttp://ggc-mauldin-images.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pdf/TFTF_Apr_27_2018.pdf
What do you think about this?
Not liking the post-FOMC reaction-> SPX undercuts support @ 2638, now trading @ 2632. Tough call here, but I need to protect my gains.
ReplyDeleteI'll let you know about Mauldin's article later.
The daily S&P futures chart is not looking good. This chart suggests to me that S&P will be under 2600 soon, and then will possibly break below the double bottom level...
ReplyDeleteA -400-point drop in the DJIA is now a +20-point gain. SPX has trimmed a -40-point loss to just -4. Even SQ (Square) is now in the green.
ReplyDeleteIn my opinion, a bullish pause that refreshes. No guarantees, of course. No regrets about selling yesterday. Nice to have watched the morning declines while in cash.
Reopening VTWSX and VEIEX at the close. Will defer reopening BABA (Alibaba) until after earnings release on Friday. Will defer reopening any other positions as well - I prefer to see lower-risk entries. (Sure, I could have bought into this morning's decline but that would have been jumping the gun. The odds improve only after indexes reclaim support levels, and that information was not available until now.)
My gut feel is that the indexes have been consolidating ahead of breaking either higher or lower. I think they break higher. No real evidence, but then there never is. Sometimes I just need to decide whether it's bull or bear. If you've been reading my comments, you'll know I'm a bull at this juncture.
DeleteBought back in (following a one-day hiatus) on a perfect reversal. Why perfect? I've arrived at that conclusion by process of elimination.
ReplyDelete(a) Second to worst scenario would have been a 'gap up and run' market. That would have effectively locked me out of an attractive reentry (while also proving me wrong!). That's not the worst scenario, however.
(b) The worst would have been a -400-point decline in the DJIA, followed by a +400-point gain into the close. Although I would have been 'right' in side-stepping a steep decline, I would then have been forced to chase prices at the close. Why? Because the odds of missing out on even more gains as the market accelerates out of the U-turn on Friday would be high. Whereas under scenario (a), it's likely that prices would retrace before moving higher.
(c) What about buying back in on a closing selloff? That sounds attractive, but it's not. I would be betting on a turn-around on Friday, with no reason whatsoever to think we see one (ie, no behavioral evidence upon which to base that conclusion).
(d) Today's combination of a reversal off the lows + a flat to slightly negative close was ideal. There's clear evidence of buying interest with the reversal (traders can talk a good game, but prices only move higher when traders put their money on the line and buy). And the flat close allowed a low-risk reentry point. (The usual divergence in closing prices between VT/EEM and VTWSX/VEIEX worked in my favor, as it does 50% of the time-> whereas VT/EEM closed off just -0.04%/ -0.22%, I was able to reopen positions in VTWSX/ VEIEX at -0.14%/ -0.59% discounts to Thursday's exits. Those are 3x differences percentage-wise).
A -387-point overnight decline in the Hang Seng provides an attractive pre-market reentry into FXI (China 'H' Shares). Reopening a position here @ 46.1x (last exit was about +1% higher).
ReplyDeleteAdding EWZ (Brazil) @ 40.4x (a -6% discount to last Friday's close).
DeleteReopening BABA (Alibaba) @ 181.8x (last exited @ 183). Top line and bottom line beats. Prices spiked to 185 immediately after, buying back in on the pullback.
DeleteI thought that yesterday's drop in S&P futures below 2600 was a preview of things to come, and so I closed my remaining VXX $51 puts that I purchased during the crash. I actually lost a little money on those puts (they were very expensive when I purchased them, even though VXX was at $50 back then). Today's jump in SPY is quite surprising. However, if the market starts declining next week, then today's jump will be yet another lower how, after a lower low was made yesterday. So the jury is still out.
ReplyDeleteThe good thing about today's jump is that X hit my sell limit at $34.60 for the shares I purchased at $32.60. I am still underwater on X, though, as it has just reached my next lowest purchase that I made at $34.60 a few weeks ago. Just placed a sell limit order for that batch at $36. I didn't sell any of my X when it was at $37 recently because its linearly ascending chart suggested that X will be at $40 in no time, but that turned out not to be the case. So now I'll start taking my profits more aggressively.
ReplyDeleteNMM seems to be stalled just short of my sell limit order at $1.90. It got close it it a few times over the past couple of weeks, but it can't get there. In order to speed things up, I decided to make a sacrifice to market gods and just sold some of my shares at $1.855 (which I purchased at $1.65). Now the gods will want to make fun of me and will move NMM quickly to $1.90, so that I'd feel bad for jumping the gun. But I won't feel bad. :)
ReplyDeleteThe DJIA reverses a -150-point opening decline to rally +385 points in the afternoon. I don't expect the index to back off much from here.
ReplyDeleteVT (world) +0.9%, EEM (emerging) +0.6%, FXI ('H' Shares) +0.57% (but +1% from basis), EWZ (Brazil) +.16% (+0.8% from basis), BABA (Alibaba) +3.9% (+4.3% from basis).
Taking profits on BABA (Alibaba)-> one-day gain of +7%.
DeleteMy strategy of making a sacrifice to market gods by selling NMM at $1.85 on Friday worked! :) NMM hit my sell limit today at $1.90 for some of the shares I purchased at $1.70.
ReplyDeleteAs negative as sentiment was last Thursday-> it's the exact opposite today. Really quite remarkable. Taking all remaining positions off at the close, in hopes of reopening (maybe tomorrow!) at better prices.
ReplyDeleteLooking out over the next few months, I remain quite bullish.
Good guess, 2nd_ave!
DeleteBDI is up to 1432 already. NMM should be much higher at this price. Just bought some at $1.86 (replacing the shares that were sold at $1.90) and placed a sell limit at $1.95.
ReplyDeleteUS indexes slip early in the day, and have now mostly recovered.
ReplyDeleteMy plan is to reopen VTWSX (world) + VEIEX (emerging) at the close at essentially no net change in basis for either position.
The reason for not waiting 'til tomorrow is b/c my outlook is bullish. In my opinion, upside risk outweighs downside. That's all it is.
No one expects an impulse buy wave anytime soon (earnings announcements are trailing off, monthly jobs + Fed out of the way, and other than Presidential tweets nothing left in the way of catalysts). So I think we get one!
Good guess again!
DeleteS&P jumps to the highest level on this chart, above the previous two peaks:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES&p=h1
This, in my opinion, greatly increases the probability that more gains will follow.
X hit my sell limit at $36 for the shares I purchased at $34.60 a while ago. That was a quick recovery. :) My next sell limit is at $38.
ReplyDeletePlaced a buy limit at $34.50 to replace the X shares sold at $36 yesterday.
ReplyDeleteI'm generally not a fan of the terms 'overbought' and 'oversold,' as (i) they're rather subjective terms, and (ii) prices can easily become more extended in either direction than we think. (The very definition of an uptrend is an overbought condition that continues indefinitely.)
ReplyDeleteHowever, I am a fan of common sense, and in my opinion an eight-day win streak for the DJIA makes it prudent to take profits here. Relative to my entry on May 8, the world index should end the day about +2% higher.
Of course, each time I've exited in the past few weeks I've been forced to buy back in. We'll see.
When I say 'forced to buy back in,' I'm referring to the fact that despite a decline the following day, prices reversed quickly to close either flat or slightly higher-> and for mutual funds that trade only end of day, there was no opportunity to capitalize on the decline.
DeleteNMM hit my sell limit order at $1.95 today for the shares that I sold at $1.90 and then reloaded at $1.86. In the spirit of this money-making machine, placed at buy limit to reload at $1.90 the shares I sold today.
ReplyDeleteSome time ago I was considering just going all in on NMM, since it was in a clear uptrend established in Feb 2016. The thing is, I was considering it in January, when NMM was at $2.3... The only thing that saved my ass was the memory of large positions going against me for a long time, with a natural conclusion of scaling in very gradually even when things seem to look good. As a result of this gradual scaling in, I was able to keep buying NMM all the way down to $1.65, and THEN taking a large position around $1.7 when it became clear that BDI had bottomed out and started going up. NMM is nowhere near it previous level when BDI was at 1476, as it is now, so buying NMM now is still a very good investment...
ROYT hit my sell limit at $2.30 today for the shares I picked up at $2.10. My next sell limit is at $2.40. Also placed a buy limit at $2.21 to replace the shares sold today.
ReplyDeleteGlobal indexes have sold off all day, and will likely close near the lows. That's the kind of ugly market I want to buy.
ReplyDeleteDJIA -250 (-1%), SPX -25 (-0.9%), VT (world index) -1.07%, EEM (emerging markets) -2.23%).
Will reopen positions in VTWSX (world) + VEIEX (emerging) at the close. The decision to reopen positions in higher-risk individual stocks will be deferred until Wednesday (eg, BZUN [Baozun] currently -6.5%).
Once again, I made a mistake entering my buy limit order for NMM and instead entered a sell limit order at $1.90, which was triggered at the open today at $1.92. But then I noticed that BDI went down today, and after the recent run it had, I want to see whether today's decline is a start of a noticeable pullback, before buying NMM.
ReplyDeletePositions reopened in ASHR (China 'A' Shares), BZUN (Baozun), and PBR (Petrobras). New positions in IQ (iQIYI, the so-called Netflix of China), PAAS (Pan American Silver on pullback to support following outstanding earnings), and OSTK (Overstock->it's been basing in the thirties and may be ready to break higher.
ReplyDeleteX hit my sell limit at $38 today for the shares I purchased at $35.11 before the collapse. Why the heck did it collapse 3 weeks ago, if traders were planning to take it above the pre-collapse highs a few weeks later???
ReplyDelete2nd_ave, are you still holding X that you purchased during the collapse?
Something interesting is happening to ROYT now. There are no news out, as ROYT gives updates on its business only once a month. In his case, I think the saying "Price is what you pay, Value is what you get" applies. Two of my buy limit orders were triggered: at $2.21 to replace the shares sold at $2.30, and then another order at $2.15 for half of that amount. I have another buy limit order at $2.10. Based on its expected dividends, ROYT is a great value at the current price and is worth accumulating to a large share of one's portfolio.
ReplyDeletePlaced sell limits for these share lots 10c above the purchase price: at $2.25 and $2.30.
DeleteSorry for the late post. Exited all positions near yesterday's close. BZUN (Baozun) was a real winner, and I opted to protect capital.
ReplyDeleteThe DJIA and BZUN (Baozun) are green this morning, but not much else. It's still early of course, but I have no regrets closing all positions on Thursday. Currently +6.7% YTD and 100% cash.
My thoughts re EEM are pretty straightforward. Long-term bull, short-term bear.
(a) Active traders in EEM have been selling. Longer-term 'allocators' in IEEM, while they haven't bailed, have also not added to their positions. 'Calm before the storm' type action.
(b) Despite the recent selloff in emerging markets, investors remain bullish. From a contrarian viewpoint, this type of stubborn bullishness is not good.
I think (a) + (b) sets up good odds of a washout low. This morning's -2.28% decline in EWZ (Brazil) is a good start.
Re X, I closed too early (as usual). I'm now leaning short-term bearish on equities.
DJIA 116,000+ by 2031-> odds-on.
ReplyDeleteI came across the following video presentation more or less incidentally.
https://www.seeitmarket.com/has-bull-market-only-just-begun-investing-17958/#.WwAZuOSuAyU.twitter
Put together by a respected market technician, it somehow manages to incorporate everything I've learned about the market-> head fakes, contrarian thinking, open-mindedness, and the triumph of optimism. It runs less than half an hour. Well worth your time.
US index futures open up +1% amid reports that trade negotiations with China have been 'constructive.'
ReplyDeleteUnless the situation reverses (unlikely) on Monday, I'm now facing the prospect of reopening positions at a premium to Thursday's exits.
Was it a mistake for me to remain neutral on Friday? No, I'm simply facing a normal trading setback relative to my benchmark. I trade based on probabilities given the evidence available, and it would be unrealistic to expect things to fall my way every time.
X dropped sharply today, reloading at $35.50 the shares I sold at $38. Placed a sell limit order at $37 for them. Can't decide whether I should keep scaling in on the way down or wait until the current fear of renewed competition from cheap Chinese steel stabilizes.
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think, 2nd_ave?
I like the way global indexes have held this morning's gains.
ReplyDeleteReopening BABA (Alibaba) @ 197 and change. Earlier reentries into EWZ (Brazil) @ 38.5x, EEM (emerging markets) @ 46.3x, and ASHR (China 'A' Shares) @ 30.8x. New position in INDA (India) @ 30.7x.
I had expected to reopen/ open positions today at a premium to last week's exits/ prices, but that's not been the case so far. EWZ (Brazil), EEM (emerging markets), ASHR (China 'A' Shares), BABA (Alibaba) and INDA (India) all reopened at or well below Thursday's exits/ prices.
VT (world index) currently trading just +0.2% above last Thursday's close. EEM (emerging markets) just +0.4% above last Thursday's close. I don't like to chase, but @ =<+0.4% it's hardly chasing-> will reopen VTWSX (world index) and VEIEX (emerging markets) end of day.
My take right now:
(a) Market leadership will shift from small caps (IWM at another new all-time high today) to large caps. In fact, it almost has to->small caps are only 9% of the stock universe. One reason I'm buying BABA (Alibaba) rather than BZUN (Baozun) today (nice -5% pullback in BZUN).
(b) Emerging markets will outperform. After correcting in February, most indexes are in the midst of a second correction. Low-risk entries here.
(c) China will take off.
Not sure what to make of X. When prices decline across the board, as they have in emerging markets, I prefer buying indexes to individual stocks. The potential gains are almost identical, with far lower risk. I made an exception with BABA as I consider it my best single-stock right now.
DeleteThe drop in ROYT last week, without any news, was obviously a buying opportunity. This morning it hit my sell limit at 2.3 for the shares I purchased at 2.2 last week. Should have purchased more shares...
ReplyDeletePlaced and buy limit at 2.2 to replace these shares once again.
DeleteThat limit was hit -- nice! Placed a sell limit at $2.3 to sell these shares. Wash, rinse, and repeat. :)
DeleteIf the oil price remains the same, then ROYT will pay out an annual dividend of about 33% relative to its current price. Since it is such a great value at the current price, I placed buy limit orders for more of it at $2.15 and $2.10.
DeleteStill waiting for NMM to drop below 1.8 in order to start scaling in. I am in no rush now since BDI is falling...
ReplyDeleteNMM hit my buy limit order at $1.80 today. Placed a sell limit at $1.90 for these shares. Also, placed buy limits at $1.75 and $1.70 -- this is a value region for NMM.
DeleteDecided to cancel my buy limit order at 1.75 -- BDI is falling too precipitously and I want to see where an MMM stabilizes...
Delete2nd_ave, what do you think about this article:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.mauldineconomics.com/the-10th-man/when-rates-go-up-stuff-blows-up
It kinda explains what is happening with emerging markets...
All I can say is that anytime we read one person's opinions about something it helps to remember that no one knows where the markets are headed. Mauldin may be right, but he's also making many assumptions - the most obvious being that rates will continue to head higher. Does anyone really know whether they will?
DeleteQuite a take down in oil today. ROYT hit my buy limit at $2.15, replacing the shares I sold at $2.25. The current price is still a great value given the expected future stream of dividends.
ReplyDeletePlaced a sell limit at $2.22 for these shares.
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-UQ0-8ktAM
ReplyDeleteOne of Jimmy Webb's earliest compositions, which helped to launch the career of the beautiful Marilyn McCoo.
I don't make predictions, but in my opinion there is the heightened probability of a breakaway rally next week:
(a) Traders are poorly positioned for a rally. Last week's tight range, failed breakouts, and geopolitical worries likely discouraged opening long positions heading into the long weekend.
(b) It's been almost four months since the early February correction. That's a pretty long stretch.
(c) Headlines continue to lean bearish, including one that reminds us that June is the second-worst month of the year for the DJIA:
https://w
ww.marketwatch.com/story/dont-get-burned-june-is-the-second-worst-month-of-the-year-for-the-dow-2018-05-25
(a) through (c) is a great setup for a brutal rally out of left field.
Not exactly an immediate up, up and away. However, all kinds of good things happened today:
ReplyDelete(a) VIX (volatility) +40%.
(b) 77% down volume.
(c) SPX within 10 points of a 50% retracement.
(d) Put/Call 110%.
This is not the kind of day to sell into.
Great intuition, 2nd_ave!
DeleteNice jump in X today. My sell limit at $37 was triggered at $37.79 for the shares I reloaded at $35.50 (after selling them at $38). Also, my buy limit at $39 was triggered for the shares I purchased a while ago at $36. Decided to replace these shares at $37.09 just now, and placed a sell limit at $39 for them once again.
ReplyDeleteROYT hit my buy limit at $2.1. place a sell limit for these shares at $2.2.
ReplyDeletePlaced another buy limit at $2.05. The smaller the price I pay, the larger will be the percentage return on this investment due to ROYT dividends. :)
DeleteAnd another buy limit at $2.00
DeleteBDI is up two days in a row, so buying more NMM now might be a good idea. Placed a buy limit order at $1.80 for more NMM.
ReplyDeleteThis order was triggered today. Placed a sell limit order at $1.90 for these shares.
DeleteBDI keeps climbing sharply. Bought more NMM at $1.80.
ReplyDeleteOne nice thing about being on vacation is disengaging from the market noise. Global markets are up +2.6% from the May 31 close. Anyone who bought into the 'sell in May' strategy is now down -3.2%.
ReplyDeleteWill traders sell the Trump-Kim summit? That's always a possibility. All kinds of 'experts' weighing in today on both the outcome and the fallout. Most of them will be wrong. Several guesses will get it right on one or the other, and a few may get it right on both. But it's fair to say that market reaction will surprise us all. I'd rather bet that markets will continue to rally, and that the outcome of the summit will have little to do with it.
There's been pretty remarkable action in Chinese names. If you had the conviction to play BZUN (Bauzun) or IQ (the 'Netflix' of China) on their recent breakouts, the gains have been breathtaking.
The Summer of 2018 may go down as the 'anti-sell-in-May' exemplar of all time.
Bought more ROYT at $2.05 and placed a sell limit at $2.15.
ReplyDeleteNice jump in NMM today. A couple of weeks ago I reloaded a bunch of shares at $1.80 and placed a sell limit at $1.90 for them. The order was executed at $1.96 this morning. Placed a buy limit order at $1.85 to reload these shares.
ReplyDeleteX keeps pulling back since the day it hit my sell limit at $39 on May 31. I have just recalled that in the past I made much more money than I lost when I was selling options. So instead of continuing to reload X outright, I just placed two sell to open limit orders for August $35 puts on X at $2.25 and $2.50.
ReplyDeleteBoth of these orders were triggered. Should have had more faith in the extent to which X can drop and just placed one order at $2.50. :)
DeleteLowered my sell limits on X to $38 and $40. I would rather just keep my short puts on X and get rid of the shares.
DeleteOK. I stopped out of all positions today. Probably a mistake.
ReplyDeleteNMM has finally hit my sell limit at $2 for the shares I purchased at $1.90 a long time ago. Also, ROYT hit my sell at $2.15 for the shares I added at $2.05.
ReplyDeletePlaced new buy limit orders for NMM at $1.90 and for ROYT at $2.05.
DeleteLate post (getting lazy).
ReplyDeleteOn Tue, Jun 26, 2018 at 12:36 PM (pst) [I] wrote:
I would tag the odds of a further decline in the indexes at 50/50. But I think Monday's low print of 2698 for the SPX will hold. (Why bother selling yesterday? I had no way of knowing whether a global sell wave would ensue overnight. You might recall that I sold into a -4% decline earlier in the year, which then allowed me to sidestep a -8% decline the following day.)
China is now in correction territory, with the Shanghai Composite off -20% from its January highs. Corrections are opportunities. With ASHR (China 'A' Shares), FXI (China 'H' Shares) and EWZ (Brazil) now -24%/ -20%/ -33% respectively off their January highs, I no longer need to play high beta stocks for a chance at decent gains.
I plan to reopen VTWSX (world index) + VEIEX (emerging markets) at the close.
The bulls have two things going for them today:
(a) Monday's candlestick printed a long tail, which indicates a degree of climactic selling.
(b) Today will be an inside day (today's trading range well within Monday's high/low). The primary trend is still up, so I believe today's 'indecision' may signal a return to the primary trend.
2nd_ave, from where did you repost the above?
DeleteShanghai declines lower into bear territory overnight, -1.01%/ Hang Seng lower by -1.82%->reopening FXI (China 'H' Shares) @ 42.3x (-2% off Tuesday's close and -21.6% off its January high) + EEM (emerging markets) @ 42.6x (-1% off Tuesday's close and -18% off its January high). Reopened a small position in BABA (Alibaba) @ 188-and-change.
ReplyDeleteROYT hit my sell limit today at $2.2 for the shares I purchased on the way down at $2.1. Moved up my buy limit on it to $2.1 so as to repeat this cycle...
ReplyDeleteNo way around it. Pretty ugly close. Price behavior is the language of the market, and over time a story unfolds. It's up to us to listen.
ReplyDeleteAs of today's close, my portfolio is still positive for 2018, but just barely. I'll give the bulls another day to work things out. If they're unable to mount a rally, then I'm out.
It's no big deal that the markets may be ready to correct. Keep in mind that emerging markets rallied +30% in 2016, and all markets rallied about +20% in 2017. If we see a down year for 2018, is that a problem?
Y'all know that I've leaned bullish for a long time - since at least January 2016, when I went 'all in' on emerging markets for a +30% return over next year or so. 2017 was a struggle (a market that goes straight up with no pullbacks can be a challenge for active traders), but I managed to match the 22% return of the SPX.
DeleteThe first few weeks of 2018 were challenging as well for traders - a parabolic spike that left me behind. The -15% (or so) correction in global markets in February allowed me not only to catch up, but to exceed my benchmark. I was up +6.x% at my best point. I've now given up most of the 6.x points.
That's OK. A -6% loss is manageable. However, it's not OK to continue leaning bullish in the face of deteriorating market action. I may take another minus 1-2% hit tomorrow. It may be even more. If that happens, I'm out - no questions asked.
Contrary to what many believe, the primary responsibility of a money manager is not to make money. It's to protect capital. (When you're down to little to no capital, even the best trading strategies are useless.)
To that end, I have closed all trading positions in the after hours session-> basically, everything I picked up in the pre-market session. I opened the positions when the 'ES' (SPX futures) was down -20 points. The SPX went to post an intraday high of +23 points. Then traded all the way back down -23 points. (Twenty up, twenty down. Not exaxctly bullish action.) So basically back to even on the trading positions.
I kind of regret not taking the investment positions off as well end of day, but it takes my mind a little time to change from bull to bear. If markets rally tomorrow, I'll have reason to celebrate. Unless they rally damn hard, however, I'll probably be closing my fund positions as well.
2nd_ave, I am looking at https://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES&p=d1 and I just see a normal wave up, wave down, with higher lows so far. I've seen MANY times when a previous low was taken out and weak hands left, and the market (or individual stock) then staged a major rally. The time to leave will be when the Feb/Apr double bottom is broken, and we are still far from that.
ReplyDeleteDavid- I hear you. But see my post below.
DeleteROYT hit my sell limit at $2.3 for the shares I purchased at $2.2. It also announced a $0.036 monthly dividend today. As I've been saying, with the current oil prices, getting dividends from ROYT is a no-brainer, and it is just a matter of time before the market doubles its price so as to bring the dividend yield down to 10%.
ReplyDeleteWe're seeing a nice rally in the final hour. DJIA +175 points (+0.73%), SPX +23 points (+0.85%), NDQ +1%.
ReplyDeleteIt's almost enough to convince me there will be a multi-day bounce. That's the thing about trading - it's never easy. Right now it comes down to 'not quite good enough.' I'm even willing to bet we close well off the current highs.
I'm reminded of a quote by Jesse Livermore:
“One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth – or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world. They have cost stock traders enough millions of dollars to build a concrete highway across the continent.”
I'm going to have to suck it up and lock in today's gains as a lucky break (recall my regret at not having closed all positions yesterday - no regrets right now!). If I zoom out to a 30-month horizon->a more appropriate perspective is that I am locking in a total (compounded annually) +60% gain over the past two and a half years. Trying the game 'the last eighth' of the current bull may be costly. A better approach might be to wait for the next low-risk entry. The markets are in fact quite oversold right now, but it was only last week that the Nasdaq 100 put in a new all-time high.
I plan to close positions in VTWSX (world index) + VEIEX (emerging markets) end of day (the ETF equivalents currently trading about +0.7% higher).
I can't trade a stock unless it pulls back regularly! NMM hit my buy limit at $1.9 for part of the shares I sold at $2. Placed a sell limit for these shares at $2. Also, placed more buy limits at $1.85 and $1.8. BDI is going up now, so any pullback in NMM is a buying opportunity!
ReplyDeleteOK. Here's my early morning post:
ReplyDeleteThe Shanghai Composite and the Hang Seng make attempts at reversing on Friday, both up about +2%. Fantastic. That’s a good start.
The DJIA gaps up this morning and currently trading up about +200 points. Not bad. Still unimpressive, however, and it’s unclear whether we’re seeing conviction on the part of buyers or a short squeeze (recall put/call @ 175% at one point yesterday, and later reported as high as 235%->had I known that, it may have prompted me to wait another day).
BABA (Alibaba) trading down on talk of poor metrics (one reason I dislike holding positions in individual stocks).
Is the current rally sustainable? I think it comes down to whether investors remain skeptical (which will provide a tailwind) or whether negative sentiment quickly reverses to again embrace the bull (in which case the indexes are likely to resume the downtrend).
I prefer to keep an open mind (although still leaning bearish at this time). There’s plenty of time to jump back in should bulls take the upper hand. I’m neither ahead of nor behind my benchmark at this point.
And my current thinking:
DeleteThe bulls are making a stand, but will it be their last? There's really no way to know, but then trading isn't based on predictions-> it's based on the probabilities that underlie recurring patterns of human behavior. I'm still leaning bearish, but quite open to becoming bullish at any time.
The DJIA spiked close to +300 points at its intraday highs before backing down to its current +200-point range. Buying in banks are responsible for the bulk of the move. +300 points was probably 'good enough' to lure many traders in off the sidelines. Great examples of bull traps can be seen in the first hour of today's price movements in BABA (Alibaba) and BZUN (Baozun). I'm not saying either stock was a 'bad buy' this morning (both companies will likely outperform over the next several months), but in my opinion most of the buying at the open was due to short-term traders looking for a quick profit (not!).
I'm currently up about +1% year-to-date, and perfectly fine with watching the next move from the sidelines.
2nd_ave, where are you making these posts?
ReplyDeleteSorry for the late reply. I'm making these posts to a small cadre of dedicated followers at work! Including my boss!
DeleteI try to remember to copy each post here, but sometimes it's not possible (no access) or I simply forget.
Sold another bunch of ROYT at $2.4, which I have recently reloaded at $2.2. It is quite extended, so still keeping my buy limit at $2.2. My next sell limit is at $2.5.
ReplyDeleteSold one more bunch of ROYT at $2.5, which I have purchased at $2.15 some time ago. Placed a few more sell limits at 10c increments -- who knows how long it will keep going up in a straight line. :)
ReplyDeleteNMM hit my sell limit at $2 for the shares I reloaded at $1.9. Placed a new buy limit at $1.9
ReplyDeleteThis year, so far, turned out to be perfect for my "automatic" trading style. My portfolio is up a little more than 30% YTD. Hopefully, this up-and-down chopping will not turn into a down-down-down move. :)
ReplyDeleteWow, that's great!
DeleteSuch a gain required me to take a margin debt that was almost equal to 90% of my portfolio in February/March. Most of it was, however, due to my piling into ROYT *after* oil has bottomed out in February, which I felt was pretty safe because ROYT could only go up with such great dividends and direct dependence on the oil price. Which is happening right now...
DeleteThis week I closed all of my margin debt and actually moved to around 20% cash (just like you :), due to my continued scaling out of NMM and ROYT.
DeleteMy latest string of posts (currently 80% invested), in reverse chronological order (ie, the latest post appears first):
ReplyDeleteBoth the DJIA and SPX have retraced all of their declines on Tuesday in pre-market trading, and are likely headed back above 25,000 and 2800 (respectively).
On Tue, Jul 3, 2018 at 12:18 PM:
US indexes end the day well in the red and at the lows of the day. Actually not surprising, as markets closed early amidst thin pre-holiday trading. I wouldn't read too much into today's price action. Selling was limited to domestic equities, as EEM, FXI, ASHR, and VGK (Europe) closed flat to higher.
The only change I made today was to close EWZ (Brazil), which was up as much as +2.8% intraday and hit my limit sell, which locked in a +3.5% gain.
Now that Shanghai seems to have found a bottom, I will looking to reopen positions in IQ (Iqiyi) + BZUN (Baozun) on Thursday/Friday if I'm able to find decent entries. In my opinion, both stocks have a good shot at revisiting their June highs (about +40% higher for IQ, and +20% higher for BZUN).
On Tue, Jul 3, 2018 at 5:26 AM:
Early indications are positive:
(a) DJIA +154 points, SPX +13 points, NDQ + 45 points. All up about +0.6%.
(b) EEM (emerging markets) +0.7%. FXI (China 'H' Shares) +1.2%. ASHR (China 'A' Shares) +1.37%. EWZ (Brazil) +1.44%. BABA (Alibaba) +0.7%.
On Mon, Jul 2, 2018 at 11:55 AM:
All three major US indexes declined enough to shake out Friday's buyers, yet all three also managed to hold above last week's lows.
Although leaning bearish over the next few weeks, I'm near-term bullish and ready to reopen core positions in VTWSX (world index) and VEIEX (emerging markets) at the close.
(Note that most indexes are at levels best described as precarious, and unless you're comfortable holding through further weakness it's safer to wait.)
On Mon, Jul 2, 2018 at 7:50 AM:
Across-the-board -2.5% declines in the Nikkei + Shanghai + Kospi (the Hang Seng exchange was closed). A smaller -0.7% pullback in the iBovespa. I have no idea whether the declines stop there, but I'm short-term bullish on the sector.
Reopening EWZ (Brazil) + FXI (China 'A' Shares) + FXI (China 'H' Shares) + BABA (Alibaba) on this morning's -1.3%, -2%, -4% and -1.4% declines.
And the bulls have it! SPX 2761.
ReplyDeleteGreat example of 'sell the rumor, buy the news'->tariffs kick in at midnight, only to see global indexes rally.
EEM (emerging markets) +1.55%, VT (world index) +0.8%, FXI (China 'H' Shares) +1.11%, ASHR (China 'A' Shares) +0.9%, BABA (Alibaba) +2.24%, BZUN (Baozun) +1%. The only disappointment thus far is IQ (iQIYI) which is struggling to stay above 30.
On Fri, Jul 6, 2018 at 6:44 AM:
SPX 2745 will be a key 'tell' for market direction (now @ 2742). Great tailwind for bulls if it holds.
On Fri, Jul 6, 2018 at 5:56 AM:
Initial reaction to the monthly employment report is positive, but I tend not to trust initial reactions.
As planned, I've added a second allotment to IQ (iQIYI) pre-market @ 29-and-change, bringing my basis down to 30.2x.
BZUN reopened around 54.7x.
This week marked another higher (or equal) low for SPY on the 6-month chart. Most likely, a higher high (relative to June high) will follow...
ReplyDeleteNow the question is: have emerging markets made a durable low? I still have my 401 in LZEMX, which I entered at February lows, thinking that since they were the lows for S&P, they would also be the lows for LZEMX. Boy, was I wrong...
DeleteIt's the close that counts, and US indexes close at the highs. DJIA +320 points (+1.31%), SPX +24 points (+0.88%), NDQ +68 points (+0.9%).
ReplyDeleteEEM (emerging markets) +1.8%, VT (world index) +1%, ASHR (China 'A' Shares) +3.66%, FXI (China 'H' Shares) +2.1%, BABA (Alibaba) +0.25%, BZUN (Baozun) +4.27%, IQ (iQIYI) +6.35%.
Hey, if global markets rally on news of a trade war-> the only option available to both bears (who need to cover) and under-invested fund managers (who need to keep up with their benchmarks) is to buy.
DJIA futures -297 points (-1.12%), SPX futures -28 points (-1%).
ReplyDeleteAfter-hours developments are part and parcel of trading. Is the above 'news' in fact new? I don't think so. I wouldn't be so quick to buy the media explanation. Markets have been rallying for a week. It's time for a pause. In fact, I even thought about closing my positions today based on the need for a pause. I just wasn't convinced that 'overbought' would not become more overbought. In other words, I'm waiting for indexes to break out of a 5-month range to the upside.
My advice:
(a) Don't panic. The odds are 50/50 that US indexes will open on Wednesday in the green.
(b) If we sell off instead, it's a buying opp for those who are under-invested or on the sidelines. (If you think about it, what does 'cash on the sidelines' refer to? At any point in time, someone owns each share of stock outstanding. If you've cashed out, then by definition there was someone taking the other side who bought from you.)
(c) We're overdue for a shakeout.
(d) If markets are going to sell off hard, let's hope they sell off while we're sleeping!
ROYT hit my buy limit at $2.30, replacing the shares I sold at $2.50. Placed a sell limit order at $2.40 for them. My next buy limit is at $2.20.
ReplyDeleteI also see that GDXJ is gradually making higher lows all throughout 2018. A few months ago I sold some $33 puts on it, which then happily expired. Just now, I decided to be a bit more conservative and just sold August $32 puts on it at $0.53.
ReplyDeleteThere was a distinct absence of positives in today's market action, but let's take a look at where we are.
ReplyDelete(a) The SPX closed (today) +244 points (+9.6%) above the February low.
(b) The Mid-Cap 400 (MDY) closed the day above its January peak. The Russell 2000 (IWM), even more so.
(c) The BAML (Bank of America Merrill Lynch) Bull-Bear Spread indicator is in buy territory: https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_investor_sentiment_bull_bear_spread
(d) The range-bound market is giving stocks like BZUN (Baozun) and IQ (iQIYI) an opportunity to carve out some nice bases. Both held up nicely amid today's selloff.
(d) In order to effectively shake traders and investors out of their positions, declines have to feel like the real deal. One of the few instance where we have the media on our side!
Sure, the markets may spring a trap door on us at any time. I just don't think it's going to happen this year.
I closed all positions in IQ (iQIYI) around 34.8x for an overall gain of about +7%.
DeleteI notice a significant 'U' in the weekly AAII Sentiment Survey numbers-> 43.1% of members are now bullish (an increase of +15.2% from last week), and 29.2% are bearish (a decrease of -10.1% from last week). When viewed in the context of a substantial bounce in global indexes since the 'tariff news,' is it a good time to cut back? In my opinion, no. The tariff headlines succeeded in shaking out a ton of people, and I continue to think stocks will break out of an extended trading range. My advice is to hang tight. (I wouldn't recommend opening any new positions, however.)
ReplyDeleteI'm hearing talk re the following 'technical head-fake->' one more day of upside (ie, a false breakout in the Nasdaq), followed by a plunge.
ReplyDeleteSure, it's possible. But I think the market can trump that with another head-fake-> a false breakout followed by a real breakout! That would come closer to the market I know.
BDI keeps pushing up, and so today's drop in NMM is a buying opportunity. Just reloaded at $2.02 the shares I sold at $2.10 and placed a sell limit order at $2.12 for this batch.
ReplyDeleteIt appears that a sixth consecutive day of gains for the DJIA is not in the cards. Nor did I expect it would happen.
ReplyDeleteI see that IQ (iQIYI) is off -9% and back to where I last opened a position-> 32-and-change. It's generally safer to wait for bids to kick in before opening a position, but I'm OK with a 25% starter position here.
Heading into the final 15 minutes of Thursday's session, something's bothering me. I'm unable to identify what it is right now. Will take 50% of my positions in VEIEX (emerging markets) + VTWSX (world index) off at the close.
Hopefully it's nothing, and we're back to rallying on Friday.
Closing all remaining positions->BZUN (Baozun) + the remaining half of VEIEX (emerging markets) and VTWSX (world index).
ReplyDeleteStill unable to identify what worries me.
It's Monday morning, and for now I'm plowing ahead despite my concerns.
ReplyDeleteReopened a position in CGC (Canopy Growth) pre-market @ 24.4x (about a -34% discount from its June 21 high). Also reopened a position in IQ (iQIYI) pre-market around 33. It's my opinion that Friday's 31.60 print set an intermediate-term low. Of course, I may be wrong!
Closed the majority of CGC >26 earlier in the day for about a +7% gain.
DeleteSPX 2795-> That was the early morning low and it looks like it will hold. Now @ 2808 (and above resistance @ 2805). So I think it's headed to 2828.
I'm still clueless as to why my sixth sense prompted a sell alert last week. It's not unreasonable to think many other traders felt the same way, so perhaps we just needed to rebuild the wall of worry. I will reopen positions in VTWSX (world index) + VEIEX (emerging markets) at the close. Based on current prices for VT + EEM, I hope to reopen VTWSX at a minor discount to Friday's close, but there should be no problem opening VEIEX at a significant discount (-0.84%).
I also reopened positions in BABA (Alibaba) + NFLX this morning when they triggered limit buys @ 185-and-change and 355 (pretty much where I sold last time - much too early!).
DeleteAs it turns out, I paid premiums for VTWSX (+0.03%) and (unexpectedly) also for VEIEX (+0.15%).
DeleteDJIA futures +120. SPX futures +11. Shanghai and Hong Kong both up +1.5% overnight. Pre-market bids->EEM (emerging markets) +1.7%. BABA (Alibaba) +1.5%. IQ (iQIYI) +2.3%. NFLX (Netflix) +1.1%. BZUN (Baozun) +2%. If you're lucky enough to be holding GOOG (Alphabet)-> +4%.
ReplyDeleteOf course, it's the close that counts.
Tough call. I suppose it's always a tough call. I plan to cash out at the close. My reasoning:
ReplyDelete(a) It's a pretty narrow rally. Most indexes are higher, but I'm seeing serious selling under the surface. For instance, FXI (China 'H' Shares)/EEM (emerging markets) are up +3.22%/ +1.35%, yet the opening spike in BZUN (Baozun) was quickly sold (now -4%!). Ditto for BABA (Alibaba) and IQ A(iQIYI). NFLX (Netflix), GOOG, and QQQ all well off their early highs.
(b) The morning 'gap up' had the look/feel of a short squeeze.
(c) Negative divergences. The Naz is currently in the red (-0.07%)! Even weaker is the Russell 2000 (-1%).
Maybe it's all a fake-out and stocks catch up on Wednesday. But for now, I plan to take the money (estimated one-day gain of +0.8%) and run. Will close VTWSX (world index) + VEIEX (emerging markets) end of day.
Bottom line->Still bullish. But I try to trade as if I make a living at it, and people who make a living at it will always lock in at least partial gains when they have them.
Today's action in Chinese stocks is the mirror image of Tuesday's-> individual stocks are outperforming the indexes. BABA (Alibaba) +4%. BZUN (Baozun) +3.7%, IQ (iQIYI) +5%-> versus FXI ('H' Shares)/ ASHR ('A' Shares) +1%/ -0.06%.
ReplyDeleteWhat's going on? I'll be honest-> I was faked out!
What now? I'll pick up the pieces as best can. I've taken advantage of today's 'divergences' and reopened positions in China via FXI and ASHR (both positions were opened a few hours ago when I first noticed the indexes lagging). My preference (when able to find decent entries) is always to buy diversified indexes. Why? The ability to take larger positions, and with less volatility. It's just simpler. Whereas with high-beta stocks like IQ and BZUN it's easy to get whipsawed and I need to size much smaller.
Today's big question-> do I reopen 'investing' positions in VTWSX (global index) + VEIEX (emerging markets)? That's a good question, and another tough call! In my opinion, global markets (in contrast to a recovering bear market in China) could break either way. A positive outcome to trade talks would probably spike the markets +5%. A negative outcome might lead to a retest of recent lows.
Basically, I don't know! It's about as close to 50/50 as it gets.
Faced with (self-proclaimed) odds of 50/50->I have to go with my 'bottom line' bias, which is bullish. Based on current bids for VT, I'm going to give up my remaining +0.5% relative (to benchmark) performance and reopen VTWSX/ VEIEX at the close. (To be fair, it's very difficult to outperform benchmarks. The fact that I outperformed by a wide margin in 2016 kind of sets me up for under-performance this year!)
VTWSX (global index) closed up +0.85%. VEIEX (emerging) closed up +1.35%. I paid a stiff price (0.91% in foregone gains) for making the wrong call. But there are positive aspects to all setbacks (another way of saying I have an arsenal of psychological tactics for dealing with these types of setbacks!):
ReplyDelete(a) A single day trade in CGC (Canopy Growth) on Monday was enough to add +0.55% to the portfolio. (My other trades netted out to zero.) That takes foregone gains down to 0.36%. I can live with that.
(b) Today's remarkable rally in the final 15 minutes caught many traders/investors poorly positioned->that should provide a tailwind over the next few days.
(c) I'm now about 87% invested. That leaves enough cash to take advantage of any decline(s) on Thursday.
(d) Speaking of which->FB (Facebook) plunges -20% after hours. Hey, I don't even know why (yet)! But it's a reasonable candidate for another buying opp this week.
X hit my sell limit at $38 for the shares I reloaded at $37 after selling at $39 the shares I reloaded at ... :)
ReplyDeleteNow I still have a bunch of August $35 puts that I sold short when X dropped under $35 for 4 times the amount I made from today's trade. So I'll just wait for them to expire, which will be my August trade in X.
Still can't figure out why NMM is not at a 52 week high despite BDI being there. I remember when BDI backed off from its 52 week high in December 2017, it took a few weeks for NMM to react and start going down for real. Maybe it is having a delayed reaction now as well
ReplyDeleteROYT hit my sell limit at $2.4 for the shares I reloaded at $2.3.
ReplyDeleteAfter hours ROYT announced another $0.04 in monthly dividends. At the current price, this is still more than 20% annualized. So I am still expecting a lot of price appreciation, until dividends drop to 10% annualized.
DeleteX -- WTF??? Earnings and revenue beat, but the stock is down 10%???
ReplyDeleteJust sold some October $33 puts on X at $2.64 each.
DeleteSorry for the long hiatus.
ReplyDeleteLet's cut to the chase. I sold into Wednesday's decline - an informed decision with a bad outcome.
(a) Wednesday was the fourth time this year that I have sold into steep declines.
(b) This morning marks the third time that markets have reversed the day after. I was able to reopen positions at small premiums/ discounts the previous two times. That's unlikely to be the case today.
(c) Was it a mistake to sell into the declines? No, I don't think so. We don't know the outcomes ahead of time. Let's go back to the first selloff in 2018. I sold into a -4% decline - which spared my portfolio an additional -12% hit over the next few days (and promptly placed me well ahead of my benchmark).
This morning I'm in 100% cash, -1.1% YTD, and (based on current bids for VT) about -2.6% behind benchmark. That's where I stand on the playing field.
(a) If I want to throw a Hail Mary, I could look at emerging markets (-20% from January highs) , China (-30% from highs), Brazil (-30% from highs), or Turkey (-55% from highs). Even gold miners (-27% from high).
(b) A better bet is a hand-off to the world index (-6.5% from highs).
(c) What about the long bond (-7% below 52-wk high)? That's more like three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust ->one is easily tripped up by changes in the interest rate.
It's understandable to want to get back in the game right away, but sometimes it pays to wait. That's what 100% cash represents->patience.
Both VT (world) and EEM (emerging) have given back ~50% of their intraday gains. That's unexpected and good enough for me.
ReplyDeleteReopening VTWSX/ VEIEX at the close.
Also opening a position in GDX. I think it's capitulation.
Taking advantage of selected pre-market weakness in a few 'country' ETFs to get BRIC'd up - in this case, BRCT'd up:
ReplyDelete(a) Opening a position in TUR (Turkey) as it retests the lower half of a 20-handle.
(b) Reopening a position in EWZ (Brazil) on a minor pullback to 33.3x.
(c) Reopening RSX (Russia) on a slight pullback to 19.5x.
(d) Reopening FXI (China 'H' Shares) on a minor pullback to 40.5x.
All of the above represent retests of lows seen earlier in the week. Obviously, I consider emerging markets (solidly in bear market territory right now) a buy.
X got to be close to its bottom, so I sold some October $30 puts on it at $1.90 today. I am trying to switch to the strategy of selling puts and waiting for them to expire as opposed to buying shares outright and waiting for them to go up.
ReplyDeleteGold miners might be close to their bottom as well, but I would like to see them bounce around the bottom for a few weeks before buying in...
ReplyDeleteNow that GDXJ has retested its recent lovs, I feel better about buying it on the way up. Just placed a buy stop limit order at $27.40/$27.50
ReplyDeleteDamn! Missed GDXJ by one penny! Its low today was $27.51! Would have been a nice day trade if I had set my stop just a little higher...
DeleteI may get another shot at GDXJ at $28. Just placed a buy limit there...
DeleteThat was a day order, which expired without being hit...
DeleteInstead of buying GDXJ at $28, I decided to "buy" it at $26.97 buy selling the equivalent number of October $28 puts on it at $1.03.
ReplyDeleteAlso placed a buy limit order on it at $27.50, which is close enough to August 16 low of $26.80 that I can set a stop at $26.80 if that buy limit order is triggered.
DeleteJust for a trade, purchased X at $29.12 and placed as sell stop at the day's low of $28.62. Today might be a retest of the recent lows for X, and maybe, just like GDXJ, it will zoom up after a successful retest.
ReplyDeleteF*in X! It is totally controlled by the algos, that pushed it down this morning just to my sell stop and then jerked it right back up again! Well, since the support held, I have reentered X at $29.52.
ReplyDeleteLook at what X did today! A total reverse of Tuesday -- spiked up, collected all buy stop orders, and plunged right back down!
DeleteI think the drop in GDXJ is overdone given how well GLD is holding up. Just purchased a ton more GDXJ at $26.83.
ReplyDeleteDecided to sell all my ROYT at $2.61. It paid good dividends over the past few months because it had made almost no capital expenditures. But given their CapEx plan for the year, they will need to spend much more CapEx soon, which will temporarily depress their dividends and might cause the stock to drop.
ReplyDeleteJust sold at $27.49 the ton of GDXJ shares I picked up at $26.83. This might be just a one day wonder...
ReplyDeletePlaced a sell limit at $28.44 for the shares of GDXJ I purchased with my buy limit at $27.50 (which was triggered at $27.44)
ReplyDeleteThis order was triggered at $28.63 last week. Now preparing to reload...
Deletebabyliss nano titanium flat iron | TITIAN ROCKETS
ReplyDeleteIn omega seamaster titanium this simple tutorial, we will introduce men\'s titanium wedding bands you the basic layout of a properties of titanium babyliss nano titanium flat iron, making it easy to titanium stronger than steel use and use.$19.99 · titanium iv chloride Out of stock