It's my opinion the markets will experience a correction of -10% to -15%. In fact, to throw everyone off it may even (finally) retest last December's lows, in which case we're talking about a -20% correction for the SPX. As you know, my opinions are often wrong, and subject to change at a moment's notice- however, whenever I post an opinion it's an honest reflection of my current take.
Even a -10% correction would wipe out my current ytd gain of +9%. My baseline position will be cash. My plan is to play the counter-trend rallies that always occur- in fact, it's my favorite play.
I'm waiting to hear China's response to the renewed threat of tariffs. Best guess for Monday is a gap-down open followed by a relief rally. In order to control risk/maximize flexibility I plan to trade only ETFs or (in the case of accounts limited to trading mutual funds) Rydex funds that trade twice daily (1030 am/ 345 pm est). No plans to trade either inverse or leveraged Rydex funds.
As always, I'm open to being completely wrong. In which case I'll change my strategy.
In reverse chronological order:
ReplyDelete8:31 PM (0 minutes ago)
In my opinion, we saw two key reversals today:
(a) TLT (the long bond) gapped up hard, then sold off -2% to close unchanged. 3x average volume.
(b) SPY (Spyders) gapped down hard, then rallied +2% to close unchanged. 2x average volume.
It's time to play the long side.
On Wed, Aug 7, 2019 at 12:52 PM wrote:
Opening RYSPX (Rydex S&P500) at the close. I'll be opening the position at a slight premium to Tuesday's close. (Sure, I could have opened the position @ 730 am this morning when the SPX was a percentage point lower - but there was insufficient evidence then that the lows would hold.)
It's a short-term trade.
On Wed, Aug 7, 2019 at 9:22 AM wrote:
Additional evidence in the form of higher lows on intraday pullbacks, and I'm beginning to accumulate positions in a few washed-out sectors. EWZ (Brazil), FXI (China 'H' Shares), even AMZN (Amazon) looks good as it retests Monday's close. I have my eyes on XLE (energy) and SMH (semis) as well.
On Wed, Aug 7, 2019 at 7:44 AM wrote:
I think the retest succeeds, but there's no point in front-running what amounts to a 60/40 call in a high-risk environment.
Late post (made ~725 am this morning).
DeleteRYSPX (S&P500) looks to close the 0730 pst trading window up +0.9% - that's good enough. My target was SPX 2900 - 2925. It may hit 2925 - or it may turn back down (in which case I may reopen).
AMZN (Amazon) closed for a +2.4% gain (about +$45/share). IQ (iQIYI) +4%. EWZ (Brazil) +3.5%.
ASHR + FXI closed here.
DeleteRYSPX closed around SPX 2911 (closing price won't be available 'til after 10 am). SPX now 2928 - no doubt designed to kill the shorts. But I don't see it going much higher.
How Lemeridian funding service grant me a loan!!!
ReplyDeleteHello everyone, I'm Lea Paige Matteo from Zurich Switzerland and want to use this medium to express gratitude to lemeridian funding service for fulfilling his promise by granting me a loan, I was stuck in a financial situation and needed to refinance and pay my bills as well as start up a Business. I tried seeking for loans from various loan firms both private and corporate organisations but never succeeded and most banks declined my credit request. But as God would have it, I was introduced by a friend named Lisa Rice to Le_meridian funding service and undergone the due process of obtaining a loan from the company, to my greatest surprise within 48hrs just like my friend Lisa, I was also granted a loan of $216,000.00 So my advise to everyone who desires a loan, "if you must contact any firm with reference to securing a loan online with low interest rate of 1.9% and better repayment plans/schedule, please contact Le_meridian funding service. Besides, he doesn't know that am doing this but due to the joy in me, I'm so happy and wish to let people know more about this great company whom truly give out loans, it is my prayer that GOD should bless them more as they put smiles on peoples faces. You can contact them via email on {lfdsloans@lemeridianfds.com Or lfdsloans@outlook.com} or Text through Whatsapp +1-989 394 3740.