Repositioned long the global markets at today's close.
I prefer in general to buy negativity and sell exuberance. The current environment is kind of a puzzle. On the one hand, there's a great deal of anxiety - as evidenced by relatively large cash positions (both retail and institutional). On the other hand, I sense optimism about the economy despite the anxiety.
Once in a while, the stock market will 'ride the upper Bollinger Band-' ie, prices will continue to rise on positive sentiment. Think back to 2017 - the market remained 'overbought' for a long time. I think we may be entering another period of persistent upside movement in prices. Call it what you want - climbing a wall of worry, riding the upper band, a rally against the odds. The fact is that it's happening - the market likes to defy expectations, and I think that's exactly what's going on.
In reverse chronological order:
ReplyDeleteThere are media reports that the US and China have reached an agreement on Phase One - the market response is positive, but muted. In other words, the news was already priced in. I think it's prudent to close positions here - a pullback is needed to launch the indexes higher.
All positions off at the close.
On Thu, Dec 12, 2019 at 7:16 AM wrote:
Trimming a few positions in IQ (iQIYI), HUYA, FXI (China 'H' Shares), EEM (emerging markets) + the second allotment of MNK (Mallinckrodt) opened recently ~3.32.
On Thu, Dec 12, 2019 at 7:01 AM wrote:
DJIA +220 points and US indexes will notch new highs today.
To be honest, I don't like staying on runaway trains and may opt to close positions end of day.
On Wed, Dec 11, 2019 at 12:36 PM wrote:
Fed Chairman Powell foresees no rate hikes in 2020, and says the Fed remains 'accommodative-' that's apparently what market participants wanted to hear!
Taking a swing at the close.
ReplyDeleteI'll be positioning long at the close:
RYSPX (S&P500)/ VTIAX (ex-US)/ RYEUX (Europe) in a 45%/ 45%/ 10% spread.
Why? Just a hunch.
(a) Markets have consolidated for two days following Monday's spike.
(b) Put/Call ratio yesterday was 63%. Today it's 134%.
(c) Everyone expects a pullback. Perhaps there won't be one.
Sure, the trade involves risk - all trades do. If this was a craps game - it's time to press bets.
In reverse chronological order:
Delete12:08 PM (4 hours ago)
Taking it all off at the close.
Next week is in fact the most bullish of the year - so it's likely I'll be reopening on any pullback(s) early in the week.
On Fri, Dec 20, 2019 at 7:21 AM wrote:
Will be taking RYPSX (Rydex S&P500) off at the 730 am pst trading window. A +0.86% gain in the SPX in less than a day and a half is worth locking in.
Sorry for the late posts, but here they are in reverse chronological order.
ReplyDeleteTaking +13-15% intraday profits on cannabis plays.
On Tue, Dec 31, 2019 at 7:24 AM wrote:
Another reason to be long:
Gartman has been a highly reliable contrarian signal for over thirty years!
Dennis Gartman Says Goodbye With One Last Stock Market Warning
Updated Dec. 31, 2019 at 9:02 a.m. ET
By
Mark Hulbert
'The coming bear market will “do real and perhaps severe damage to portfolios everywhere.”'
On Tue, Dec 31, 2019 at 6:50 AM wrote:
Added several positions in two sectors (China + Cannabis) on opening weakness.
On Mon, Dec 30, 2019 at 1:10 PM wrote:
There's always a balance between risk and reward. Today is one of those times when I'm willing to take the risk.
On Mon, Dec 30, 2019 at 1:07 PM wrote:
Reopening VTSAX (US)/ VTIAX (ex-US) at the close.
Basically, I was waiting for a pullback, and we have one. No guarantee the trade will work out, of course.
On Sun, Dec 29, 2019 at 9:22 AM wrote:
High risk/ high reward -that's how I view the current environment. Yes, risk is outsized - but so are the potential gains.
Exactly three weeks ago I was content to be up +9.82% ytd. As of Friday, I'm up +12.6%. That's an average of almost +1% per week - obviously well above expectations and surprisingly also in line with percentage gains for both VT (global) and VTI (US) over the same period. (I don't know exactly how I accomplished a +2.8% gain over three weeks other than to read back through my emails, nor do I really care - it's simply a result of following my process.)
Whether and how I play the melt-up will depend on market action. As you know, I prefer buying pullbacks.
Latest post minus the intervening details.
ReplyDeleteTaking profits. The trading account is up ~+1% on one-day trades. The investment account (VEMAX) looks to end the day +0.0043%. So a one-day of +0.54%. I'll book it and reassess market conditions next week.
Will end the day up ~+2.3% ytd.
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