Wednesday, April 27, 2011
4/27/11 I Am The Walrus
Hate to say it, but I probably went to cash early. Way early. OAKBX closed all of +0.04. Kind of surprised (bummed is a better word) to find my closing balances (somewhat) lower than the March 30 high.
Mr. Market always has the last laugh. Ho ho ho, he he he, ha ha ha.
If I had to guess, we rally hard Thursday.
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It almost always ends this way. Out too early. Or too late. ---- it.
ReplyDeleteRe: PM's this morning newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5587 comments) on Wed, 04/27/2011 - 21:19 #84751 (in reply to #84690)
ReplyDeleteDr. S- Why not trade around your positions? Why not (for instance) have taken at least partial profits on SLW at 47? All I'm saying is I know of no One Way streets in this game. Silver could easily drop to the thirties in the blink of an eye. The last time I traded metals/miners in a significant way was late 2005 to early 2007. It's one hell of a sector to be 'all-in.'
FWIW, my $$ algo has been in the maximum bull position (10) since last Oct for long term, defined as weeks to years. Caveat is that the gain to risk ratio is very poor now. Thats because the stop is way down there and the target is SPX 1426. Read that as resistance. 1426 is also the resistance for the intermediate term , defined loosely as weeks to months. Intermediate has a good risk ratio but 1343 is the stop at which it will switch to bear 1, start of another weak correction. I read 1343 as a magnet point which attracts the traders to take out stops. It seems to work. 1343 is also the stop for short term, defined as days but not intra day which would be very short term. ST also has a not bad G/R ratio.
ReplyDeleteAll time frames are positive but ST and IT are on quicksand and LT has more risk than gain. That is my interpretation of the numbers. The algo just presents the facts/numbers.
Re: Dr. Strangelove.../ Ann Arbor newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5589 comments) on Wed, 04/27/2011 - 22:03 #84755 (in reply to #84749)
ReplyDeleteI live just west of Detroit in a little oasis that some around here say has its own reality
My folks lived a few blocks away from the Arboretum (they eventually moved to the Bay Area after retirement). I stayed with them off and on in the seventies. Whenever possible, I would take a walk after dark to the Geddes entrance > down to the (Huron) river > and back. There would be a utility building on the other side of the river with a solitary bulb burning. One experiences exaggerated ups/downs in their late teens/twenties, and I certainly had my share. When down, I would sit in solitude on the opposite bank and commiserate with that lonely swath of light.
Great place to raise kids.
Re: I Am The Walrus
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by bbarberayr (25 comments) on Wed, 04/27/2011 - 21:55 #84754 (in reply to #84750)
Large cap tech is still cheap and should be good long term.
Will be interesting to see what MSFT says tomorrow, but think it will be good.
Re: I Am The Walrus
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5589 comments) on Wed, 04/27/2011 - 22:02 #84756 (in reply to #84754)
No disagreement. I think all large cap stocks will kick --- the next two years. Good luck with your positions. I'll be the crazy dude speeding in/out of traffic, only to see you exit ahead of me with stronger gains.
Man, maybe I have no idea how this whole thing works, but I was ashamed to be an American during Ben's sales pitch. I guess I need to toughen up a bit.
ReplyDeleteOnly thing left seems to be a very large position in XLF or KRE.
Wow...
Kudos to BC BTW for getting at least getting half of the TOG right.
ReplyDeleteI'll take earth quakes over tornadoes any day.
ReplyDeleteTOG - Which side was that, PM's? There are at least two dynamics at work that after repeated attempts, I couldn't get him to discuss or acknowledge.
ReplyDeleteHe had everyone at CC on the wrong side of the trade once again this morning...
I grew up in Detroit until the age of 13. If nothing else, it has made me very aware of how special most of the rest of the world is.
ReplyDeleteOn a separate note, I'm looking at the dollar chart and it appears to me that the angle of decline/angle of attack is just starting to steepen. I have tried to bottom pick so many similar charts in my "career" and have been burned very, very bad pretty much every time.
The dollar has declined very orderly in a straight line from 79 to 75. It has now broken that "straight line" and appears to be entering a (I can't seem to find the antonym of...) parabolic decline as the straight line has just recently been broken. In my past, similar chart patterns have resulted in virtual free falls.
I sure hope this does not happen, as I am nowhere near positioned for it...
:(
Maybe it IS different this time for the Doctor.
Earthquakes/tornados - I suppose my preference might take into account if there are any nuclear power plants in the vicinity. ;) I bet Fukushima would've preferred a tornado or a hurricane.
ReplyDeleteIf the dollar does go into a "parabolic" decline to let's say the low 60's or high 50's similar to world stock markets in 2008, it would probably be a major capitulatory event creating a multi-year bottom.
ReplyDeleteThe alternative would be a slow multi-year bleed heading to the same area.
The one factor today that kinda got me was copper closing red, I guess the PM rally on dollar weakness was already priced into copper, maybe that threw everyone off track?
ReplyDeleteConsidering recent metals miner weakness, I'm half expecting to wake up and see lower PM prices. Sell in May habits die hard?
Just when it looks like something's about to happen, the opposite comes true more often than not?
I vote for the volatile slow bleed, anything rapid would roil the market?
ReplyDeleteScrew oil and USO. Anybody looked at UGA recently? Almost looks as good as silver. I'm sure glad I live in a city center.
ReplyDeleteUGA - Yep, I was trying to piece that one in a couple weeks ago, wasn't sure what to think of it since I'm anticipating for someone to put Gadaffi out of business...
ReplyDeleteAlso, I'm thinking oil will come off around memorial day, taking off some energy inflation pressure (and allow the rest of everything else some room to run?).
So expanding on that, I would like to see oilers rally on their earnings until about Memorial day when Gadaffi is dismissed, at which point they sell off.
ReplyDeleteThe oil sell off will be conveniently blamed on Ghadaffi.
Mark - When you think about all the jazz that's gone down in the past 3-4, it is truly amazing how this "whole thing works" or doesn't. If the 'extended period' language had been missing in yesterday's statement, it could have gone very different in an Oh-Shit second.
ReplyDeleteI mean....seriously....REDF is insane.
ReplyDeleteBluepoint is a channel partner of MITK (i.e., they license MITK's mobile deposit technology):
ReplyDeletehttp://pymnts.com/bluepoint-solutions-reports-best-q1-in-company-history-20110428005936/
*Best Q1 in company history
*"Bluepoint has also seen significant demand for its mobile deposit offering, adding new clients to its growing roster."
tof - mitk looks like it would get picked up by ibm/sap/orcl, etc. anything about the co structure that would inhibit and acquisition?
ReplyDeleteI mean inhibit an acquisition
ReplyDeleteJB > Yeah that's what I'm thinking is the end game for MITK. Although I doubt it would be a IBM/SAP type company. I think it will be Fiserv or some other company that focuses on services to the banking industry. The company is dirt cheap given it's monopoly on mobile check depositing and given how its technology can transform paper industries.
ReplyDeleteI have no idea about the co structure question, but I suspect
sorry...meant to say but i suspect it doesn't matter. if they have a poison pill thing then that just makes it more expensive for the acquirer, which would yield a higher price tag for shareholders.
ReplyDeleteEWJ/EFII off @ 10.44/17.91 > Now 100% Cash newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5590 comments) on Thu, 04/28/2011 - 10:15 #84783
ReplyDeleteForgot I had starter positions in the above. Sometimes a silver lining ;)
thx tof! enterprise software co's are looking at buying more and more industry specific app type co's....either way who cares as long as someone pays big $$$ for MITK!!
ReplyDeleteDoes Bluepoint trade?
ReplyDeleteFrom Bluepoints web site...
ReplyDeletePowered by Mitek Systems’ patended IMagePROVE technology, QwikDeposit To Go utilizes patent-pending innovations achieving accuracy of 99.99 percent. Bluepoint is the leader in RDC and image-based item processing, and now emerges as a pioneer of mobile deposit, turning the camera on most smart phones into a virtual scanner in your pocket!
HEK is going to have a big move one way or another.
ReplyDeleteS&P - RSI(7) is 73 again...
ReplyDeleteI'm curious to see how REDF's quarterly earnings turn out.
ReplyDeleteBluepoint looks like a private company. Here is where they explain the mobile deposit side of their operation.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bluepointsolutions.com/remote-deposit-capture/mobile-capture/
GL players.
ReplyDeleteFYI-
ReplyDeleteUNG broke out of its 22 month downtrend 4 sessions ago and as of today's pre-market, tested the downtrend line 4 times successfully.
The commodity itself is breaking out of a well-defined 16 month reverse head and shoulder downtrend channel today.
Very little contango going 7 months out.
Still no chatter out there regarding these channels being broken:)
UNG hitting upper bollinger band today, so I would suspect it has little further upside this afternoon.
ZSL - Are the PM bulls hyperventilating yet?
ReplyDeleteRAS looks ready to run up the ride side of a cup to 3.70ish. TOF- You have any knowledge why it can't resume its monster run you were waiting for?
ReplyDeleteJess: One word: DILUTION. RAS is the king of dilution.
ReplyDeleteRAS - Dilution? Is there really such a thing when it comes to a REIT? All proceeds are distributed, so by dilution, are you referring to growth?
ReplyDeleteRAS - The disadvantage I see RAS has as compared to NLY (but haven't verified), is any asset losses aren't guaranteed principle and interest, no government sponsored safety net?
ReplyDeleteRAS - Therefore, in terms of dilution, are we actually not describing growth, but covering up for poor returns due to excessive losses?
ReplyDeleteNext week, UNG should break out over its 200 dma at $12.12 for essentially the first time in its 4 year history.
ReplyDeleteIt would then see a rapid move higher w/ little to no pullbacks. I could see the silver bubble popping next week (first 7 or 8 May sessions) w/ the hot money asset flow heading into the one last untouched safe haven from the dollar.
We'll see. I've been following UNG a long time and have never seen the disparity in volume on up days vs. down days. Its trading 30 million shares on its thrusts higher and 10 million on its down days.
Check out UUP. Let's see how she closes, but right now, that's one helluva hammer on high volume. Carbon copy of GDXJ in late January. As always, gotta wait for the close... This would most likely signal an earlier end to the silver bubble.
ReplyDeleteWell, I've run out of ideas for now...
ReplyDeleteTWM, DXD, SDS and the gang setting up. EEM already rolling over after a double top.
ReplyDeleteCan't wait to see how the dollar closes.
Euphoria in the streets while the inverses set up.
kyle - eem is 1% from it's highs.
ReplyDeleteGLD tanked right after it made a double top at $150. Recovered half of the drop since then.
ReplyDeleteABX - I like their move to add copper, hopefully share price gets clobbered a little more soon.
ReplyDeleteOK everyone- Its officially been a week since this was published....
ReplyDeletePer Sentimentrader:
"Expectations of future volatility have plunged, but S&P 500 traders are paying up for protection on put options. When we've seen this kind of dichotomy in the past, it has consistently occurred within days of an intermediate-term peak.
While stocks rallied again, expectations of future volatility tanked, which is unusual for this time of year. There has been only one other time in its history that the VIX closed at a 52-week low at any point in the week leading up to the Easter holiday, which was in 2002.
Most troubling is that while the VIX is dropping, S&P 500 traders are still paying dearly for put protection (see below). When we've seen this combination in the past, the market was within 1-2 weeks of a peak
There have been 5 other times that the VIX was scraping along at or very near a 52-week low while the CSFB jumped to a 52-week high (and 2 more when the VIX was within 2% of a 52-week low). 6 of those 7 occurred within 3-11 days of an intermediate-term market peak. The dates are 3/19/98, 7/16/98, 12/16/03, 1/16/04, 1/6/10 and 4/9/10 and 2/11/11.
During the next two months following those instances, the S&P dropped a median of -5.9%
If you waited a week until after these signals, then the figure above drops to -6.9%"
FCX/ABX - You've got to like the way these two charts look starting with mid-March?
ReplyDeleteToday is the top in silver
ReplyDeleteSold short SLV 46.50. Have more bids higher..
ReplyDeleteJesse- I like it too.
ReplyDeleteZSL @ 13.74
Picked up some IWM July 91 puts. Not too expensive at 6.82.
ReplyDeleteGot out of PLAB -3%. Just holding natty, silver short and puts....
This index chart illustrates the point more clearly:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.fileswap.com/dl/Jvzr3ku/Miners_Index.jpg.html
This is more of a classic silver topping pattern than a couple days ago. I thought for sure that it would happen next month. We'll see..
ReplyDeletehttp://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=d1
Silver - Yep, an obligatory double top formation. Might be a good short entry...
ReplyDeletehttp://ces.crunchgear.com/2011/01/mitek-systems-shows-off-their-smartphone-banking-apps/
ReplyDeleteThis is like hanging out at The Sahara.
ReplyDeleteI think the "textbook" short entry is in the $47 ballpark where it gapped open on Monday.
Just added a few more.
Reminds me of a cock fight, where the rooster with the biggest spurs wins.
ReplyDeletePicked up TZA
ReplyDeleteAdding ZSL @ 13.31. 1000 total now.
ReplyDeleteEUO reversal candidate if it closes around 16.30.
ReplyDelete"Sokol accused of misleading Buffett"
ReplyDeleteSimply not true, people of this stature have no sense of wrong, they are entitled.
I just look at the VIX chart and noticed that it is under 15 now, and that's without a short week in the immediate future. Also, S&P just had a nice run, and another pullback might be in order. So, with these things in mind, I finally decided to sell the 2 May $40 VXX puts that I purchased during the Japan scare when VXX was $37. I purchased the 2 puts for $6.95 and just sold them for $16.75. After figuring out the horrible dynamics of VXX while trying to play it from the long side, I should have bought many more such puts when VIX spiked above 25 -- we were all saying that this is what we were going to do, but somehow I opened only a small position in those puts... Still, I made around 2K on that trade, which is not bad.
ReplyDeleteZSL off @ 13.45. Big sell orders on every small move up.
ReplyDeleteMan, just in time...
ReplyDeleteDid you folks see the action in WATG and SORL today -- they are moving almost in a lock step in a totally inconceivable pattern. Those computers are getting totally nasty...
ReplyDeleteAwesome VXX trade David! I've been stalking TVIX all day. Might pick some up at the close if it continues to trend down.
ReplyDeleteI have a chart that shows that VIX should not go lower than 14.82 on a closing basic, so in my mind, that's a great place for a stop.
I want to put a gtc "stop loss" in place for my SLV short. I always put a stop market in for my long trades. Would it be the same for shorts?
ReplyDeleteBuy to cover SLV 48.61 stop market gtc?
That's it Jesse.
ReplyDeleteGood work on the puts, David. ;)
ReplyDeleteThanks Mark.
ReplyDeleteOut of TZA -.30. Shoulda waited to see how she closes.
David- When was that ECU coverage out? Do you think today's pressure is a result?
ReplyDeleteDXD looks great for reversal
ReplyDeletePicked up TVIX at the close.
ReplyDeleteECU.TO - Looks like RSI(2) << 2, should be good for at least a bump soon?
ReplyDeleteRIMM pre-announces a big miss.
ReplyDeleteMSFT down after earnings.
Earnings season ends with a thud.
Bought some DECK just now for a trade. $84.63
ReplyDeleteSell limit on 200 shs DECK at $86.6
ReplyDeleteMSFT - I've always believed Gates spends too much time away from the office and not enough working with design teams, he probably never tests or uses the products himself...
ReplyDeleteMark, the ECU rep said that they should announce in a month or two the drill results for the potentially huge very high grade deposit they are drilling now, and also their economic feasibility study will be out during the summer. So the next event for them will be their Q1 2011 results some time in May.
ReplyDeleteI just placed a buy limit order for 10K more shares of ECUXF at $0.80 -- the price is getting better and better! Remember the Buffett's words: price is what you pay, value is what you get.
Pulled my sell limit on DECK and just put a stop limit order at break even. Gotta grab late lunch.
ReplyDeleteI am already 10K in the margin, and since my portfolio is composed mostly of crappy nonmarginable stocks, my total buying power is now only 30K. So if the buy limit for ECUXF at $0.8 gets triggered tomorrow, then I'll sell a part of my GLD to reduce my margin debt (I have 200 shares of GLD that I purchased a year ago at $117).
ReplyDeleteGuys, you were talking about waiting for a fat pitch (REDF, etc.) and then going all in. Well, ECUXF at these prices is THE fat pitch. REDF is a high-risk momo stock that might or might not generate the profit that is currently priced into that stock. ECUXF is ALREADY generating cash at a steadily increasing rate as silver and gold keep going up. At the current silver and gold prices, they will be generating more than $12M of revenue per quarter starting Q3 2011 -- how much more obvious can a great buying opportunity be?
ReplyDeleteDecided to wait on the lunch and sold my DECK at $88.25 just now. Now I might go to a nicer lunch :)
ReplyDeleteDavid - That's the way I feel about MITK.
ReplyDeleteThe GLD chart looks like it is ready for a pullback, so I just placed a sell stop limit order for my 200 shares at $147.95/$147.90, so as to make sure that I generate enough cash to cover my margin debt and my future purchases of ECUXF at these amazing prices.
ReplyDeleteI also have 500 shares of GDXJ that I purchased at $39.50. Over the past month, it seems to have made a triple top, and if it goes down tomorrow then its chart will look totally uninspiring. So I just moved up my sell stop limit for these 500 shares to $41/$40.95.
ReplyDeleteIf my sell stop limits for GLD and GDXJ get triggered, then I will have an extra 50K to invest into ECUXF -- yes! :)
David-
ReplyDelete"how much more obvious can a great buying opportunity be?"
After respecting its 50 wma since it broke out last September, ECUXF is breaking below it this week on heavier than normal volume. IMO, if it truly is the next monster stock, it looks like its going to take some time for it to set up properly. However, it looks like it could bounce a little from here for a quick trade.
On the other hand, MITK appears to be forming a big time cup and handle w/ a breakout above 6. Whether the market cooperates is a B I G if...
Well, you know me, guys. I am not going to back off from buying ECUXF and I am not going to whine about it going down. I will rejoice instead.
ReplyDeleteI've been buying UXG from $5 down to $0.5 and then selling it all the way up to $5, I've been buying WGW from $2 down to $0.5 and then selling it all the way up to $2.50, and I'll do the same with ECUXF. I suspect that I made 90% of my gains by buying great companies as they were collapsing and then selling them on the way up as they were recovering.
ECU is right at it 365 sma. Last average I have on my charts.
ReplyDeleteDavid- Thanks, I trust your take on this one and will enter here soon.
More silver stats:
ReplyDeleteSilver- closed 75% above its 200dma. Hit 82.4% earlier this week. (Previous parabolic moves popped in a big way at 47,51, and 72%)
Here's one I find really interesting. SLV avg. weekly volume is 120 million. Previous record weekly volume was 350 million. W/ one session left, this week is on pace for 850-875 million. But here's the kicker- W/ that MASSIVE volume, SLV is only up 3.79%. I suspect SLV will close the week just about at 47.
Picked up more SLV short in the 47.20's AH..
JB- Why the TRE boner on volume?
ReplyDeleteDavid- You still holding your SLV puts?
ReplyDeleteI just noticed that all July SLV calls and half of the July SLV puts were up today. Odd.
SLV - 5/21 max pain is $42, FWIW
ReplyDeleteYes, Jesse, I am still holding my 10 July $48 SLV puts. The more ECUXF I am buying, the more it makes sense for me to hold them until the inevitable 15% correction happens (taking SLV below $40) as opposed to trying to gamble all daily moves in SLV.
ReplyDeleteI'm guessing RB's parole has been revoked...
ReplyDeleteUsing Stubhub within 3 hours of a game is like watching Citigroup 2 years ago. There must be 400 tickets on there. An hour ago, they were all $60+, now they are all literally dropping $0.50 a minute. $60 tix are now 13.99 lol. I should probably pull the trigger sooner or later. This is kinda like trading:)
ReplyDeleteRe: I stand corrected, most Say U.S. Is in Recession or ... newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (5591 comments) on Thu, 04/28/2011 - 20:48 #84846 (in reply to #84816)
ReplyDeleteI worked for a large US software company for 10 years and it was amazing to see 25 year old girls in San Francisco making 6-figure salaries for hosting corporate visits
They do quite well during recessions also. Most have an enviable work ethic.
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ReplyDelete