'The largest and bloodiest battle [the Americans] fought in WWII.'
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Bulge
Overconfident and complacent bulls caught sleeping the past few weeks. It may culminate in 'the largest and bloodiest battle the bulls fought in 2011.'
The bulls will, however, retrench and return to seal the failure of the bears.
That's likely a dead cat you're viewing on your monitors right now...
ReplyDeleteFor the buy-and-hold cell mates, however- it doesn't matter!
ReplyDeleteIt took a little monkeying around, but I added 1,500 shares of MITK @ 6.70 and 6.65.
ReplyDeleteI feel like David scrambling around my various accounts :).
BTU, may be bottoming, been trading up all morning since swoon. Long BTU from higher price
ReplyDeleteRoBear gang, if your interested in HF's this maybe of interest.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.scribd.com/doc/55949193/5-21-Kickstart
At the close cats...
ReplyDeleteT3 - I also am long BTU from higher price although position is smaller since I sold partials on a bounce up last weak. I don't like todays action because price is pushing further below 200 EMA, a bad sign in my book.
ReplyDeleteBTU/BEXP, on and on, all these charts are beginning to look like H&S patterns to me.
ReplyDeleteKeeping stiff upper lip and near the point of just turning the monitor off and checking back in a couple of months to view the carnage....
Honestly, all this selling seems like pure craziness but what the heck do I know. Judging by price action lately, the global economy is still circling the bowl.
ReplyDeleteFloods, fires, hurricanes, nuclear meltdowns, oil spills, disease epidemics, governmental default. What next? Are these to be anticipated, are we being played, or has human culture hit it's upper boundary only to come crashing down?
Unbelievable! I hate missing the important chapters though, wake me when the alien attack commences!
Exodus - The market broke S&P 1320 this morning. No sector is immune. Negative surprises from earnings keep coming in. The following article showed up on BC:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.theburningplatform.com/?tag=jim-grant
Looks like smart money might be leaving the party.
Illi Nastase , http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ilie_N%C4%83stase, regarding BTU.
ReplyDeleteI think research supports that world demand for coal is growing and supports buying if one’s outlook is congruent with this thesis. I agree that breaking the 200 dma is a negative but it could be capitulation selling here. No doubt we have nervous longs here and have experienced negative outflows for commodities.
ST play offers two reasonable stop levels 56.85 or 56.09 depending on personal preference.
LT play, BTU is off -22% from its current high of 73.95. In a worst case scenario I would expect another -28% to a price level of 41.32. All one can do is formulate a plan which one is comfortable with and proceed.
Cheers Illini, pick your shot.
wow...econ reports were pretty awful last week...didn't even realize it...something to keep an eye on i guess:
ReplyDeletehttp://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3063-economicCalendar.html?mod=mdc_h_cmgrel
"Looks like smart money might be leaving the party."
ReplyDeleteI would anticipate if that were true, we wouldn't know until it was already done.
I'm just watching the U$D here and thinking the move really isn't all that impressive considering the damage done to my portfolio over the past six months it all seems priced in already.
That's not to say the S&P couldn't move down more from here, the resiliency of that index has been simply amazing, as if it's a trailing indicator or something.
Look at BTU for instance, it's back to the future in six months while the dollar has dropped like a frickin' rock. I suspect these contrived stories of doom and gloom hitting the wires are already priced in.
We'll see....
Jim Grant - I have to say I adore the bow-tie disclaimer, he really should patent that.
ReplyDeleteBoy, wouldn't $0.10/gal gasoline at the pump we were promised a couple years ago be neat to see? Especially since until recently gasoline hadn't moved much for almost a decade while debt was quietly expanding to unsustainable levels in the distant background.
Gas, grass or ass, no free rides!
Pretty hard not to take a shot @ BTU if it can fill it's gap @ 54.74ish.
ReplyDeleteI was lucky to place my buy stop order on SLW with a good margin of safety above yesterday's close. SLW managed to spike higher this morning but still didn't touch my order. So I have just lowered it to $34.60/$34.70, just above the most recent intraday double top, and also cut it to 100 shares (I think there is a good chance that it gets executed and then SLW drops $33, at which point I'll buy 100 more shares).
ReplyDeleteCADC missed m;y buy limit at $2.05 by one penny (today's bottom was at $2.06).
Energy producer gaps up - I'd be too afraid to buy or add if those gaps were to fill. ;)
ReplyDeleteI have a funny feeling the rate of rise for energy prices won't even begin to abate until American drivers capitulate on their huge V8 powered land yacht gas guzzlers for Lilliputian class econo-boxes in a big way.
ReplyDeleteJesse's Girl's
ReplyDeleteUNL 0.49 33.29 - 33.36 1.49%
GAZ 0.07 7.54 + 7.55 0.99%
UNG 0.21 11.17 - 11.18 1.92%
BTU, did not even notice that Mark.
I am glad that I went all-in not on the broad stock market (which, as Hussman showed, is priced to achieve only a 3.5% annual return for the next 7 years with A LOT of volatility) but on ECUXF, which already went through its own bear market dropping from $1.40 to $0.7, and so regardless of what happens to the broad market, its downside now is MUCH more limited than the potential upside.
ReplyDeleteIn fact, that was a big reason for my putting my last money into ECU at $0.7 -- how much wrong can I be with a stock that has ALREADY dropped 50% for no reason, while its fundamentals have been steadily improving?
On Sunday, Hussman noted:
"One of the interesting points that both Warren Buffett and Howard Marks have stressed over the years is that risk - viewed as the risk of losing significant amounts of money - moves in the same direction as valuations. So as valuations become rich, risk increases, and as valuations become depressed, risk declines. At the same time, rich valuations imply weak long-term prospective returns, while depressed valuations imply strong long-term prospective returns. As a result, both Marks and Buffett suggest that risk is lowest precisely when prospective returns are the highest, and risk is highest precisely when prospective returns are the worst."
That was the case with ECU at $0.7 -- VERY depressed valuations, VERY high prospective long-term return, and consequently VERY low risk of investment. The broad market, on the other hand, has a completely opposite investment profile now, after the amazing nonstop rally it had since March 2009. Patient long-term investors should accept the fact that the market fluctuates a lot and wait for depressed valuations in order to go all-in as an investment.
BTU, did not even notice that gap, nice eagle eye Mark.
ReplyDeleteAONE - Still can't catch a bid. Well, maybe once oil surpasses $150 and gasoline $4+, the travesty of the American Land Yacht will finally begin fading and a few bidders will finally take an interest in electric vehicles...???
ReplyDeleteConcentrated portfolios offer most risk/reward.
ReplyDeleteIf your young and have good cashflow, OK. Semi-retired and living on your accumulate life assets, no thanks.
Ah, life is so interesting and diverse.
Only 23 comments today?
ReplyDeleteGuys- Some days the market goes up. Some days it goes down.
Bad hair day. Good hair day.
The OptionsHouse rep said that someone exercised their put options on WATG even though they were out of the money. So I was indeed assigned 1000 shares, and my cost basis for them is $4.60 (WATG's trading was halted at $5.42).
ReplyDeleteSLW just shot up and triggered my buy stop at $34.62 for 100 shares. I also placed a GTC buy limit at $33.50 for 100 more shares.
ReplyDeleteby the way...are we really selling off because of Europe? I mean how many times do we need to go through this nonsense? it doesn't matter. more important is earnings I'd argue, which were great
ReplyDeleteThanks T3D. I had to squint :)
ReplyDeleteInteresting the VIX is almost flat.
SPY back to 1320.
I also think Jesse's girls are up only because of LNG news Friday.
Buying the panic in LNG @ 6 bucks is looking pretty good now.
ReplyDelete"how many times do we need to go through this nonsense?"
ReplyDeleteRead your inbox for crying out loud! The world ended Saturday, so now we're preparing for the alien invasion. ;)
Interesting the VIX is almost flat.
ReplyDeleteYes boring market. Why don't these PIG fuchs go belly up and then we will be done with it all ready. We can start the social networking bubble that I pine for.
JB - Speaking of inbox's, this must be for you:
ReplyDelete"Dear Friends,
We are looking for a farmer or farming couple that would like to spend a minimum of one year, but longer preferred, in Tanzania, East Africa.
You need to be willing to learn key terms in Swahili and enthusiastically teach the local farming families the operation of advanced farm equipment and the knowledge required to move from subsistence to commercial farming and improved animal husbandry."
Jim Sinclair
WAMUQ.PK - +34%
ReplyDeleteAccording to the imbalances, no rally Pally.
ReplyDeleteDecided to buy 1000 shares of CADC at $2.18 right before the close. I found that it was encouraging that CADC was up on such a day, and its intraday chart for the past 5 days suggests that the low is in.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Not sure it means anything, but at least it closed above it's opening price. There's always a silver lining if you want to see one, isn't there?
ReplyDelete"GMO - Not sure it means anything, but at least it closed above it's opening price. There's always a silver lining if you want to see one, isn't there?"
ReplyDeleteAnd today's low was above yesterday's low -- a gold lining. :)
I just took a closer look at the 5-day intraday chart of SLW and decided to raise my buy limit to $33.65 -- I think there is a good chance that SLW will do a mild shakeout of weak hands by breaking below $34, but that shakeout might not get to my original buy limit at $33.50.
ReplyDeleteBEXP - I see two open gaps, which one fills first? I bet the price falls to fill the Wednesday morning gap up first b/c the market is so famously unkind.
ReplyDeleteIn which case of course I won't want to be adding to my position but should, in anticipation of this morning's gap down being filled...