Wednesday, May 25, 2011
05/26/11 Can't hear no buzzers and bells
Ever since I was a young boy
I've played the silver ball
From Soho down to Brighton
I must have played them all
But I ain't seen nothing like him
In any amusement hall
That deaf, dumb and blind kid
Sure plays a mean pinball
That's what we do here. Everything we need to know about trading was in place by the time we left high school.
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Gap up Thursday? The shorts are loaded, the longs are nervous. Perfect setup.
ReplyDeleteMark - That's UT, Austin. Another great school.
ReplyDeleteWell my port had a party today while I was away, of course that's fine by me! ;)
2nd - When are you going to play your "Get Out of Jail" card? Maybe you like the insider status. Here is what MarketWatch says: "Corporate insiders’ reaction to the market’s decline this month suggests that recent weakness is more likely a mere correction within an ongoing bull market rather than the beginning of a major bear market.
ReplyDeleteMark Hulbert"
My Stops & Targets algo agrees with you on that.
illini- I have no 'Get Out of Jail' card. How long have I been locked up, anyway? Can't remember.
ReplyDeleteIt probably all started with my Friday the 13th post. If not, it doesn't matter. Friday the 13th will make a great line when I finally get out.
tof- +28%? That's enough to back up your ---- you 'tude.
ReplyDeleteCP - You were an amazed pallbearer when you got back? Thats better than being amazed and appalled which is more common.
ReplyDeletePardon the bad joke or play on words.
Alright, making it official. The mug shot taken Friday the 13th in the back room of the Toyota dealer stays in place until I'm out of solitary.
ReplyDeleteillini- We only allow bad jokes.
ReplyDeleteAt this point, only a +250 point gap up on the DJIA would be enough to send the bears packing. Anything else falls short.
ReplyDeleteIn fact, I would prefer a -250 point gap down to a +50 point gap up.
ReplyDeleteillini - Yes, it was a fine funeral on a warm and sunny late spring day in the Shenandoah Valley. Cattle farmers were busy bailing their first hay cutting of the season, it looks to be quite a good one. ;)
ReplyDeleteSilver keeps going up this evening. Could it be that we just had a shakeout of weak hands over the past month, before silver breaks out above $50 later on this year? That will eventually send ECUXF sky high...
ReplyDeleteHay - When I had a place out in the country on a small river west of St. Louis, Missouri, I saw a lot of hay cutting. Around here in central Illinois, none seen by me. It's all corn and beans man with nothing much up yet. Been very wet. Just had another bad storm this evening. Tall perennial grasses would be growing very well but no, they have to have their corn, sponsored by Monsanto and ADM.
ReplyDeleteAGRO - I bought 500 sh late afternoon. It's Argentina and Brazil farming & land and an IPO about 3 month's ago. It made a move up this afternoon which I am hoping will continue.
ReplyDeleteillini - It's sad to watch the Frankenstenian evolution but at least the land remains in agriculture and isn't converted to more shopping centers. Unfortunately, indigenous vegetation has no practical defense mechanisms against the chemical soup as the natural system of vitality is depleted.
ReplyDeleteIllini- I really like the play in AGRO. I've been working on it the last 3 or 4 days.
ReplyDeleteMorning- Another hour spent researching...Nada.
ReplyDeleteGoing into the holiday weekend, 2nd should have more fun in solitary.
Morning all. SD is making pre-market highs.
ReplyDeleteSD- Yeah, that's crazy. Nothing I saw.
ReplyDeleteThey are setting up a Royalty Trust for some of their old wells. Proceeds to go to reducing their humongous debt.
ReplyDeleteThe trust planned to apply for a NYSE listing under the symbol PER. IPO coming.
ReplyDeleteMGIC. Man, it's really getting cheap for a growth stock.
ReplyDeleteSD- I saw that news yesterday. You think that's it?
SD- Sorry...I guess it was AH. Wasn't it pretty clear that was the plan for some time, or am I dreaming?
ReplyDeleteLong CTCT...only 250 shares but I really like it at this price. Long $23.39.
ReplyDeleteAdded 250 more shs so total of 500 shs on CTCT at $23.39.
ReplyDeletell 13.50 es
ReplyDeletedidn't fill, cxl
ReplyDeletewow, csc in the crapper, guess it's just another example of old tech not being able to quickly re-brand itself as cloud/saas
ReplyDeletere csc, accounting issues don't help the matter either. I'm going to put them on the watch list as a takeover target, pe guys have looked at them numerous times in the past several years and based on todays price they are getting pretty darn cheap
ReplyDeleteSPX has crossed EMA 63 (1322.4) on the downside, again. My algo has called it a Bear 2 market again, meaning the second stage of a new downward progression in an extended bull market. ST and IT bearish. LT bullish with a target of 1426 (been that way for many months).
ReplyDeleteMITK has only 13 ticks this morning and a large bid-ask spread.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.mybanktracker.com/bank-news/2011/05/26/banks-lag-customer-demand-mobile-check-deposits/
ReplyDeleteMore bullishness for MITK
GMO - Took a little off the table, now back to strictly house money with that issue and will add back on a retest of lower trend line. (Currently ~$4).
ReplyDeleteREDF baby, minus 43.54 in the last 21 days or so.
ReplyDeleteTime to buy?
REDF- Man, I've never seen my Money Flow (MF) indicator that steep/low.
ReplyDeleteEither way, not for me. Too chicken.
Nice follow through for SFLY.
ReplyDeleteGood volume for BEXP today. Let's hope it's not distribution.
ReplyDeleteGL ladies...
REDF - It's one of the very best POS's out there, isn't it?
ReplyDeleteHere is a really good vid for this holiday weekend. Vic says some things that will put a big smile on David's face.
ReplyDeleteIf anyone watches this and can tell me what Turk says is the key at end let me know. I think he says something about cash being the key which may refer to real interest rates.
I have a friend that know Vic really well, he may not be a Stanford grad, heck I'm not sure he finished high school, but he is very smart and researched.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kOJsj_VlStM&feature=player_embedded
Looks like the surge in ECU and RBY got postponed because of the pullback in the silver price. That's OK, I can wait for one more day. :)
ReplyDeleteIn the meantime, CAAS has pulled back and is making a nice base at $7.50. Its call options are obscenely expensive, and I have already sold $7.50 puts on it. So I decided to just pick up 400 shares now at $7.75. Let's see if it can make a CADC-like surge soon.
Speaking of CADC, I *knew* it will retest $3 and it did today, but my sell limit at $3 was not triggered! Should have been more careful and placed a sell limit at $2.99...
The REDF chart does look amazingly good here -- a solid base at $10. Since I have ran out of money with my purchases of SLW, RBY, CAAS, I only had the funds to buy now 10 June $12.50 calls on REDF at $0.3 each, betting on yet another surge off the $10 base.
ReplyDeleteNow, what's a reasonable exit strategy from the purchases I just made? Well, I placed a sell limit order at $9.75 for the 400 shares of CAAS I just purchased at $7.75. It MUST bounce to $10 at some point soon, right? If CAAS keeps going past $10, then that will be OK with me as well, since I have November $7.50 and $10 calls on it, which will BOTH get in-the-money in that case.
ReplyDeleteAs for REDF, I placed a sell limit at $1.20 for the 10 June $12.50 calls I just purchased at $0.30, so as to get a nice 4X return if REDF does make another spike in the next 3 weeks (which is entirely possible).
CDTI is up to it's old tricks.
ReplyDeleteWay to keep an eye on that one for us JB!
Crikers, your figgin unemployed.
AONE - Rub my eyes, three straight days of green!
ReplyDeleteWoah, even CSCO is green! WTF happened, over???...
ReplyDeleteBEXP- Damn, the daily range of that sucker is enough to make one seasick.
ReplyDeleteDidn't I mention SFLY yesterday? Guess it don't mean poop unless you step in it.
ReplyDeleteUSU - Big move there...
ReplyDeleteBEXP - Well, the way everything seems to be pointing, either BEXP is about to move over $30, or the broad move up in the market this afternoon is a false one.
ReplyDeleteLots of stuff flying now... except gold & silver.
FTWR....WTF?
ReplyDeleteI meant over $31.00
ReplyDeleteLittle rally in the financials...More than one day this time?
ReplyDeleteFTWR - 13X volume, LOL!
ReplyDeleteI think we are getting a little taste her in the last hour of what tomorrow will be like.
ReplyDeleteGet ready guys...2nd leg of TOG is just around the corner...No, seriously, it is...Just around the corner...
ReplyDeleteAny of you cats know where we can find a list of these investor conferences and the companiens that are going to present?
ReplyDeletesuch as, Deutsche Bank 8th Annual Global Consumer Conference
T3D- Not hear. I see then only in the news for individual plays. Would be a great source if it's out there.
ReplyDeleteI'll look.
Looks like everyone is running for the exit's here before the weekend.
ReplyDeleteADM/PA seems beat up and falls into the ag trade that I'm building for LT. It also pays 7.99% div for those looking for some income. It has sold
ReplyDelete-17% from its high in the last 22 or so days so if your are buying for income it may be fools gold.
long
Yeah, I'm totally anticipating a run for the exits as well.
ReplyDeleteGold and silver have been losing height all day, maybe we get a nice pullback there next week and I finally get a chance to buy some double gold for the run to $1600. I'd love to see the 144 SMA soon.
The copper chart looks like it's already poised for a move up though...
Mark, yeah I think that could be a nice catalyst for stock plays as both GMO and BEXP have done well off such events.
ReplyDeleteADM: Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM) will present at the Deutsche Bank 8th Annual Global Consumer Conference in Paris on Tuesday, June 14, 2011.
Tell me, guys: is RBY ready to break out above $4.6 or not? I say IT IS! Place your bets now!
ReplyDeleteRBY- Low VWAP area. Just might.
ReplyDeleteRBY, I sold that at 4.86 on 3/21.
ReplyDeleteDavid, not sure how you define a B/O, but it looks more like consolidation off downtrend since 11/10 with the 200 dma just above at 4.73. This is similar to AEM (long)with is touching its 50 dma from below. FWIW
Sinclair posting.
ReplyDeleteLittle by little, I am passing on ALL that I have learned from Jesse through Bert and Bert's knowledge to those that read here, every day, in thanks for your support of me and mine. --JEBS (James Edwin Bertram Sinclair)
Assumption:
Because gold is held by many central banks, once as a reserve currency but now as an inventory currency, it functions as a swing asset to balance the International Balance sheet of the US.
Central banks are sellers of dollars but still hold, by default, large dollar inventories.
China has hedged its dollar position 50% through commitments to long term dollar commercial agreements, pay in, mineral, and energy deals internationally. That is an act of pure genius.
We can assume other central banks still hold 90% of their reported dollar positions, on average unhedged by commercial obligation positions.
In crisis times, the US dollar price of gold ALWAYS seeks to balance the International Balance Sheet of the USA.
Therefore:
Take 90% of international US dollar debt less China and then add 50% of the US debt owned by China. Then divide that number by the ounces supposed to be owned by the US Treasury. The result is where gold wants to go.
In 1974 this gave me $900 gold. Now you do your homework, and submit your analysis to me. Do this, and I will give you Angels going to that price by a little known technique of Jesse Livermore that only works on gold after it has broken to a new high above all resistance.
Little by little I am passing on all that I have learned from Jesse through Bert to those that read every day in thanks for your support of me and mine.
Jim
T3D- Question. Let's say first up on level ll is a single bid for 100 shares @ 10.00. Lots of shares are trading at 10.00 and the 100 share bid just sits there. Doesn't that have to be the MM taking those shares?
ReplyDeleteSell imbalances for the financials.
ReplyDeleteI am keeping an eye on CAAS, and today is another fine example of how manipulated these Chinese stocks are: a gap up open at $8.16, a steady decline below the the 1-year low to $7.60, a vertical spike up to $8 (lest anyone decided to short it when the 1-year low was broken), then a spike down (lest anyone decided to buy it after figuring that the break below the 1-year low was a false alarm). Common, be real!
ReplyDeleteMark, I really do not know the answer.
ReplyDeleteToday for instance I was starting a position in ADM/PA and was trying to buy 650 shares @39.56 AON. The order just sat there for 20 minutes so I canx.
Fidelity has a order choice of PRBE, stands for probe, which I decided to use. It works like this I place my order for 650 shares at 39.56 it then shows my bid for just 100 shares and hides my true size of 650 until those shares are filled or not.
So, does that make me the MM? I'm not sure if I answered your question. t3d
Went long MSFT at close for a trade.
ReplyDeleteOh yeah, using PRBE the shares for ADM/PA filled almost instantly.
ReplyDeleteXIN - "Xinyuan Real Estate approved $10 mln share repurchase program Briefing.com +17.19%"
ReplyDeleteObviously just in the nick of time, too!
RBY- Looks terrible on the weekly and great on the monthly.
ReplyDeleteJust mail my check David.
Since you are still in solitary and we all have a long weekend coming up, I have a proposal: Ponder some good lyrics to good songs that would be appropriate for "The Banned". Also, a copyright on that name should be looked into. Your the leader of the band even in self-imposed prison but anyone can participate in this effort.
ReplyDeletePrevious addressed to 2nd in particular since he is a musical/lyricist genius.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete