Wednesday, May 11, 2011
5/12/11 It Don't Mean A Thing If It Ain't Got That Swing
We all knew today would likely be a down day- it's a bullish development, and the best thing that could have happened. Healthy markets zig zag their way up.
Side note- Doc cashed out gradually over the past week (my only complaint is the 'well-timed' disclosure). So I'm now bullish on SLV/SLW. Nothing personal- just moving my chips to the Pass line based on capitulation patterns on the table.
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Ditto on the CSCO comments. Bring on the negativity. It's bullish.
ReplyDeleteCSCO is indeed a treasure find at these prices. It's luster will shine once again after it lays off 5000 people, writes off bad acquisitions and gets back to enhancing shareholder value. Same thing applies to MSFT but they are still hell bent on spending billions on dubious acquisitions. Skype..Yipe, I don't know about that although its installed on my new Dell laptop. My grandchildren love it on their iMac.
ReplyDeleteSLV/SLW - I think this is Euro dependent, but RBY sure seems strong. The question there is if miners are going to be the same red headed stepchild on the next leg of the PM rally.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Okay, after looking over a few charts and interpolating overall conditions, at this point and just to throw a number out there, I'm gonna say that GMO shouldn't be bought until after TC breaches $10.
ReplyDeleteJust a shoot from the hip SWAG, under the assumption the euro hasn't yet bottomed.
All rights reserved, DYODD and investments may lose value. ;)
"Treasury: No fire sale of gold to delay debt ceiling"
ReplyDeleteOh, so selling gold at today's prices would be considered a fire sale?
Comparing stats on CSCO vs JNPR on FinViz, CSCO wins big for price value and ROA too. IMHO.
ReplyDeleteRB- FD, BEXP is now red $3K. Why does this one scare you so much?
ReplyDeleteRe FinViz: They do not show the current yield on CALM to reflect the big div increase declared in April. Yahoo does, showing 6.7% annualized. Not bad but don't know if that is a one shot quarter increase or what.
ReplyDeleteLooks like AMAT has lost steam since the March high of 16.93, coasting down to 14.92 (isn't that the year Columbus discovered "America"?).
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=amat&p=D&b=3&g=3&id=p49110439780
Man, I'm glad I have my tele-prompter before I post here...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDJSVPAx8xc
Illini- If your looking for yield, LT, I'd stick with LINE/KMP.
ReplyDeleteMark. BEXP doesn't scare me. Its those damn speculators in the CL_F Market. i could see oil going 20 points in either direction this month, but probably lower. Reason. Dollar up, Gas too high/demand down. Plenty of oil already in OK. Blah Blah Blah.
ReplyDeletehey guys - hitting up miami tomorrow with the lady....we'll be back on wednesday. i demand that MITK be at $8 by then.
ReplyDeletegood luck with CSCO and the silvery things. keep it real.
Looks like CSCO is going down big today and taking the rest of tech with it.
ReplyDeleteCSCO bidding @ 16.98. The only silver lining this morning is...I'm not holding any silver!
ReplyDeleteillini- For some reason, I'm just not inclined to day trade right now. I'm pretty confident the indexes move up this summer, and that the bulk of the moves will occur on gap-ups. So I need to be holding at all times.
ReplyDeleteIn other words, on mornings like this, I need to suck it up and remain composed. We're willing to lose a few battles in order to win the war, right?
ReplyDeleteRight. And my $$ algo says it's still a bull market although the risk reward long term is pretty small. (Latter stage of bull).
ReplyDeleteI know Chambers has to 'sell' it's business, but damn, I wouldn't do it on CNBC.
ReplyDeleteDrill results for RBY today. Thoughts?
ReplyDeleteCSCO taking a -6% hit!
ReplyDeleteThat's 'hit!'
When things are going our way, we all feel like great traders. When they're not going our way, that's when we pay our dues.
ReplyDelete20 year low in newsletter bears?
ReplyDeleteST
The major concerns we've discussed have been more intermediate-term in nature, usually with a 1-3 month time frame or so. The nearly 20-year low in bears among newsletter writers, a jump in optimism among Rydex mutual fund traders, extremely high equity exposure among futures speculators and a bearish price pattern in the S&P last week all contributed to the concerns.
In addition, we're now seeing a surge in open interest in S&P 100 (OEX) put options relative to call options. Since 1998, the only times we've seen twice as many outstanding put contracts as call contracts were 11/19/99, 6/19/03, 5/18/07 and 7/20/07. During the next 50 days, losses ranged from -3% to -10% while gains ranged from +1% to +3%.
Putting all that together, if we also lose technical support in the S&P (by dropping below 1330ish on the closing basis), we'll be looking at least for a move back into the 1250 - 1300 area.
And csco of coarse.
ReplyDeleteWe have a nice bounce here. 2nd amazes. Finis and oils is only thing holding it back.
ReplyDeleteBUy stop 13.10 on REDF
ReplyDeleteI think the RBY drill results are positive because they expand the overall sixe (and therefore ounces) of the deposit.
ReplyDeleteBut I also caution that I've been completely wrong about any value the shares have and my opinion of the company is completely worthless in this market, unless you are looking long term enough to where they are actually producing.
The magic # for MITK is 6.75.
ReplyDeleteCopper is green, steel index is green, I'm thinking the hit came yesterday.
ReplyDeleteRBY and GMO provide news, the one morning I don't have time to digest the news it comes rolling in.
RBY - Drill result sounds quite positive, placed a bid @$4.41 in hopes gold takes enough of a plunge to set RBY back to today's low.
RB- Thanks man. How/where are you?
ReplyDeleteREDF invalidated. canceled order
ReplyDeleteSorry, I was asking about CB??
ReplyDeleterb- fyi: the correct spelling is 'of course.'
ReplyDeleteU$D - Looking over the chart again today, it seems the dollar may be headed for a test of 76 next before a downtrend can resume. It'll be interesting to watch and see if 76 becomes support on a move higher.
ReplyDeleteWho's running now? Shorts.
ReplyDeleteof corse
ReplyDeleteIf they are running it's just to the other side of the box and bouncing back and forth.
ReplyDeleteMy dark cloud now contains CSCO and BTU, having added the latter yesterday. BTU is really running around, banging it's head against a wall each time it sprints.
ReplyDeleteBHP Billiton Chairman Jacques Nasser frames the conditions for the present flight from commodity related investments:
ReplyDelete"In the short term, although many economies are recovering, the world remains in a fragile state with persistent levels of unemployment and threats of inflation...For the medium term, we should be prepared for further downside as global monetary and fiscal tightening and economic restructuring take hold..."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/BHP-Billiton-sees-fragile-rb-4048593474.html?x=0&.v=1
Down badly, but surviving. Reloaded every last penny's worth today in low 4.40's. Will hang in there longer term.
ReplyDeleteillini- What'd I tell you, bro? We need to have faith in this recovery.
ReplyDeleteShit, I did get f*ed with WATG. It got delisted from NASDAQ today...
ReplyDeleteHere is the full story:
ReplyDelete"May 12, 2011 – Wonder Auto Technology, Inc. (“ WATG ”) today announced that its Audit Committee, with the assistance of professional
advisors, has undertaken an internal investigation concerning certain investment and acquisition transactions.
As a result of the pending restatement of its financial statements for fiscal years 2008, 2009 and 2010, and for the quarters ended March 31,
June 30 and September 30, 2009 and 2010, and the investigation, WATG has not filed its Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31,
2010 and does not expect to be able to file its Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2011 by the filing deadline of May 10, 2011. As
previously announced, WATG has received a notice from The Nasdaq Stock Market (“Nasdaq”) as to its noncompliance with Nasdaq’s
continued listing standards as a result of the failure to file the 10-K in a timely manner. Nasdaq further has informed WATG that it has
suspended trading in the company’s common stock pending WATG’s provision of a satisfactory Plan of Compliance to Nasdaq. WATG plans
to provide its Plan of Compliance to Nasdaq on or about May 13 th and in no event later than May 23, 2011. The company does not expect that
its filings will be completed until the completion of the investigation."
I have 30K invested in WATG...
Seems the market is experiencing a huge degree of difficulty in determining fair prices this week...
ReplyDeleteCB - RBY - Good work, I didn't realize you had sold any. ;)
ReplyDeleteYeah, sold out one account 3 to 4 weeks ago in mid $5s, and have sold a bunch of metal as well. I always at least partially unwind if something looks toppy and I'm in the green. The other accounts are all in the red.
ReplyDeleteINFO:
ReplyDelete2nd_ave new
Submitted by bbarberayr (63 comments) on Thu, 05/12/2011 - 13:42 #85786
Anyone know what happened to 2nd_ave? Always liked reading his comments, but haven't seen anything in a couple of weeks and when I click on his id, I get an error.
I'll send a private message to bbarberayr and let him/her know about this blog.
ReplyDeleteGood David.
ReplyDeleteHere is another interesting comment from another blog:
Thursday, May 12, 2011
Dollar Reverses, Market Zooms
Posted by Mark at 1:18 PM TweetThis
The dollar went from +0.1% to -0.2% in the past 2 hours, and the market went from -0.4% to +0.5%.
Don't over think it; if you are bringing anything above and beyond first grade logic to this market, it is too much. It just amazes me that literally armies of PhDs can't come up with an algorithm a bit more sophisticated than "IF dollar zig THEN market zag."
No luck on my part with buying more ECUXF at $0.7. The pullback in silver is over, and ECUXF will only go up now... When it gets to $5, THEN I'll forgive the market gods for screwing me with up with WATG...
ReplyDeleteDavid that sucks beyond belief. Are you going to call your broker and ask WTF.
ReplyDeleteI asked them. They said that WATG should open trading tomorrow as a pink sheet stock and they will credit back to my its value. Hopefully, it opens tomorrow above $0.01...
ReplyDeleteLooks like FTWR is going to die here soon. Damn, I still don't get what happened there. Right play, wrong business model I suppose. Right now it's basically trading @ .07/share.
ReplyDeleteDavid- That bits man. You'll be able to get out though. I'd wake up for that one tomorrow. Just make sure you know the symbol ahead of time.
Good to find you here 2nd_ave. Agree things look good for the economy to improve and stocks to do well.
ReplyDeleteBoston Consulting Group calls "Made in America - The Comeback" and predicts 2015 will be a tipping point of sorts, when global manufacturers will view the U.S. as equal to if not better-than China, senior partner Harold Sirkin tells me in the accompanying video.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/made-america-comeback-125318772.html
Welcome BB. I'll apologize in advance for all of my comments! :)
ReplyDeleteNot happy about the action in BEXP with the turn around in crude. Damn.
Welcome BB.
ReplyDeleteWPRT in an interesting spot here.
ReplyDeleteCREE.
ReplyDeleteFTWR - A case of terminal velocity. Wonder how many hundreds of others are in the same predicament?
ReplyDeleteCADC - I guess the Chinese stocks don't have much incentive to remain US listed, why should they? Just don't file your 10K and walk away to relist another day on another exchange somewhere in another galaxy far, far, away? Rinse and repeat!
FYI- I just got an email that seemed to be from Facebook regarding to what someone posted on my page. Looks like it's a bogus. Be careful.
ReplyDeleteWelcome, bb! This is a place where you don't get banned by posting links to other blogs. :) It seems that posting such links only expands horizons of the "people" and let's them make more informed choices about trading and social equity, which is supposedly the goal of the other blog. However, I got banned immediately for posting a link to this blog some months ago...
ReplyDeleteDavid- I hate to hear that since I first found watg and mentioned it hear...that drop about a year ago stopped me out and the stock never really got its act together. It pays to not buy a bad chart sometimes...and to stick with what we know I guess
ReplyDeleteHey, bb! Nothing wrong with blog-hopping. You have to find the one that fits. If it doesn't fit, one must split...
ReplyDeleteI thought you were headed to Miami?
ReplyDeleteI'm beginning to think it's time to place some really sorry-ass stink bids and walk away for a couple of months, I don't like the way May is going at all so far...
ReplyDeleteSorry to be so down 'cause that's not me, but I can't figure out what's holding up the index's...
Man, I should have closed CSCO on the initial spike and moved the money into Mighty Mitek.
ReplyDeleteNot sure what stocks your are in Chickenpookie because the S&P and Russell are down less than 1% so far this month, so both large and small caps not doing badly. Unless, of course, you were mainly in the commodities (in which case hopefully you made lots of $ before May).
ReplyDeleteMark- It's possible to blog in-flight.
ReplyDeletecp- There's a ton of cash on the sidelines waiting for the market to crash. It's not going to crash. They'll end up jumping in much higher.
ReplyDeleteTo avoid confusing bb, let me point out it's teamonfuego who is headed to Miami.
ReplyDeleteCatch you guys at the Sharks game. Gulp...
ReplyDelete