Thursday, June 9, 2011

06/09/11 Last Train Home



Anywhere you surf, market technicians are saying it's time to play defense +/- open a few shorts, and/or calling for a dead cat bounce. I don't think so. At the very least, I have to chime in 'Who knows?'

On the other hand, I'm confident that the next 5-10 years represent the 'last train home' for Boomers who want a shot at retiring 'gracefully.' Holding CDs isn't going to cut it- they'll need to take on market risk. The SPX gets from 1300 to 1500, and then to 2600, via higher stock prices. Who in their right mind would try to trade every leg of the sawtooth pattern that takes us there?
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33 comments:

  1. 2nd_aveJune 9, 2011 at 6:08 PM

    How about NDQ back to 5000?

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  2. 2nd_aveJune 9, 2011 at 6:11 PM

    The next revolution will be all about wireless communication, telecommuting, and the ability to connect with anyone anywhere anytime. Heck, the next Great American novel might turn out to be the Great American blog.

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  3. 2nd_aveJune 9, 2011 at 6:14 PM

    I can be sitting inside solitary, or lying in Neil's 'burned-out basement,' and have the entire cyber world at my fingertips.

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  4. 2nd_aveJune 9, 2011 at 6:17 PM

    American Idol is total bull----. We should instead be searching for the next creative spark in cyberspace. It could be the lonely 13-year-old girl with knees drawn to chin in an empty loft inside a N Dakota barn. Give her an iPad and see what happens.

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  5. ChickenpookieJune 9, 2011 at 7:07 PM

    CYD - Well I don't have much to say at this point but I do have an interest in watching CYD and the pincher play:

    http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=cyd&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736

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  6. ChickenpookieJune 9, 2011 at 8:10 PM

    MTU - Japanese banking, anyone?

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  7. ChickenpookieJune 9, 2011 at 9:44 PM

    SMT - TOF, isn't this one down your alley?

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  8. Telestar3dJune 9, 2011 at 9:59 PM

    The wife has always been crazy over Pedro in Last Train Home.


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cI_Sq-S5dug&feature=autoplay&list=AVGxdCwVVULXeZunJaNPiSNa1sg0cbaHJn&index=4&playnext=1

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  9. Telestar3dJune 9, 2011 at 10:47 PM

    I have always thought that having your mind stretched was a good thing even without total comprehension.

    To that effect I say everyone should read this and then read the comments and pay special attention to "by cougar_w" if you want some really interesting insights into algos. I think this is important since it is the dominant player on the field.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/story-berserk-nat-gas-algo-just-got-really-strange?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

    I hope you find it as fascinating as I do.

    One more from Metheny, a personal fav.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8NvhdFde_g&feature=autoplay&list=AVGxdCwVVULXeZunJaNPiSNa1sg0cbaHJn&index=10&playnext=7

    Hey Ro Bear you okay and staying away from the flames?

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  10. KyleJune 10, 2011 at 4:45 AM

    T3d - I've seen several presentations from nanex before. Very interesting stuff indeed.

    http://www.nanex.net/StrangeDays/06082011.html

    There's a concept in warfare related to 'working inside the enemies' timeline'...the OODA loop
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OODA_loop

    The co-location of servers (discussed on one of the 60-minute shows) and the algorithmic warfare seem part of this.

    http://www.nanex.net/FlashCrash/FlashCrashAnalysis.html

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  11. MarkWJune 10, 2011 at 6:48 AM

    Looks like the market had BEXP priced in.

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  12. ChickenpookieJune 10, 2011 at 6:56 AM

    Six weeks of decline, when do margin calls kick in for this bad boy?

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  13. ChickenpookieJune 10, 2011 at 7:07 AM

    GSG - Commodities - GSG took a big whack last month and has been crawling slowly back ever since, does emerging market demand remain robust? Seems like it, maybe.

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  14. ChickenpookieJune 10, 2011 at 7:09 AM

    "Commodities are taking a breather this morning, a day after the S&P GSCI hit a one-month high thanks to spiking oil and corn prices. We've been harping on this disconnect between equity markets and commodity markets; while stocks have been struggling due to U.S. slowdown worries, commodities have been quietly creeping higher, presumably because demand outside the U.S. remains robust. Meanwhile, China's trade balance for May came in at $13.05 billion, up from $11.42 billion in April, but well below the $19.8 billion that was expected. The miss had less to do with exports—which came in near expectations up 19.4 percent year-over-year—and more to do with imports, which surged 28.4 percent over last year on the back of strong commodity demand."

    http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/morning-call-archive/2787-corn-fluctuates-near-record-high-brent-crude-surpasses-120.html

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  15. AnonymousJune 10, 2011 at 7:11 AM

    I think we reverse to close flat

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  16. JBmaderaJune 10, 2011 at 7:12 AM

    yikes:

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/274256-tanzanian-royalty-exploration-fool-s-gold

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  17. ChickenpookieJune 10, 2011 at 7:15 AM

    Today's copper news: "Not so hot, but may pick up in June due to anticipated Chinese demand".

    http://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFL3E7HA0E220110610

    Sales job?

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  18. ChickenpookieJune 10, 2011 at 7:25 AM

    TRE - (& all other PM and base metal miners for that matter) - My impression is these are trading in a range, and it's not a bad idea to take profits at the top of the range.

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  19. MarkWJune 10, 2011 at 7:36 AM

    Juuuuust around the corner...

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  20. ChickenpookieJune 10, 2011 at 7:39 AM

    A quick look at the copper chart seems to indicate higher highs over the last four weeks, typically metals bottom before equities, as far as I'm aware.

    But Glencore "rules that sandbox", right?

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  21. ChickenpookieJune 10, 2011 at 7:44 AM

    At 13th and main?

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  22. MarkWJune 10, 2011 at 8:21 AM

    CP- :)

    Later guys.

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  23. AnonymousJune 10, 2011 at 8:33 AM

    Does it make one crazy to still think we reverse and close flat after missing that call pretty badly so far?

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  24. JBmaderaJune 10, 2011 at 8:35 AM

    tof - anything can happen, and I sure would want a real strong reversal today but I just can't see it happening

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  25. Telestar3dJune 10, 2011 at 8:37 AM

    Internet problems, TWI had backbone problems to Pacific, finally up.

    Kyle thanks for the links, weekend stuff.

    Being down cost me some chits.

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  26. illiniJune 10, 2011 at 8:41 AM

    ZIP - Hasn't done too well since its IPO but up over 5% today on upgrade.

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  27. illiniJune 10, 2011 at 8:49 AM

    PFE - Has been strong but today at $20.22 has joined the crowd and entered into intermediate term downtrend territory, by my book.

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  28. AnonymousJune 10, 2011 at 8:51 AM

    JB - I just think a reversal here to close slightly red to down moderately would be the ultimate frustration play. It would scare the sh*t out of bears but not to the point where they fully cover and it would get bulls confident but not enough to build serious conviction. Time will tell but I see it happening.

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  29. JBmaderaJune 10, 2011 at 8:57 AM

    tof - agree, mr market has a way of leaving everyone unsatisfied. 1272.75 is an important level on the ES, if we can even crawl back there I'd feel better.

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  30. illiniJune 10, 2011 at 8:58 AM

    Hardly any green on the SPX heatmap today, just steel.

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  31. AnonymousJune 10, 2011 at 9:42 AM

    AAPL looks like a low risk short right here....stop at $331 for the trader types.

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  32. RoBearJune 10, 2011 at 10:06 AM

    Back from fishing and my state is burning to the ground. Is it me or is Arizona a constant in the national news cycle. I feel sorry for you people who live in boring states.

    Although the 6 week in row down headline is catchy i think we are just in a range (channel) from the beginning of the year. For being 6 weeks lower, we are not that much lower. Really in the good old days we could of done this 6 week drop in a day or two % wise. I'm 100% cash and will resume trading on Monday after some homework.
    Love RoBear

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  33. AnonymousJune 10, 2011 at 10:06 AM

    i'm officially nervous about being long now...there's no bounce in this market.

    ReplyDelete

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