Monday, June 27, 2011
06/27/11 The Chinese-American
Great film. Reminds me in many ways of Coppola's 'The Conversation' and Sean Penn's 'The Pledge.' All three are meticulously crafted thrillers where the directors take their time building suspense and refuse to insult the viewer's intelligence.
Furthermore, all three include a lead character who could be described as 'A Very Private Gentleman', the book upon which The American is based.
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BEXP - Damn, I missed a good entry this morning!
ReplyDeleteOkay, so I'll wait to see if another opportunity opens up just as the laws of unintended consequences kick in.
GPL - Meanwhile, maybe GPL/SVM can fall enough to compel adding... SVM has filled it's $8.55 gap but I'd like to see it close below today's low and then dump tomorrow morning on the arranged PM blue light special (assuming there is one and this isn't another one day head fake designed to shake weak hands out)...
CP
ReplyDeleteBEXP pulls back a buck every single day dosen't it? Stopped out of MOBI -300. HDY and WNR are OK. Futures are boooring. We need some kind of news.
Did the unthinkable...I sold 1/4 of my MITK position at $6.50 to 6.60...I'm looking to take advantage of lower prices either in this stock or in PIR / NLS, both of which I think are very reasonable values now. I still 100% believe in MITK's potential to hit $25 within a few years but I also think NLS, for example, has a shot to recover to the $10 mark over time. And given how little value the market is placing on companies right now, a company like MITK that has an extremely promising future, yet is trading at high multiples to earnings, might get back into the $5 range once again. Additionally, from a look at the charts, it looks like MITK is having trouble getting through the $6.70 range so perhaps there is a good shot of getting more in the $5's...
ReplyDeleteAlso, part of me is a little worried about the prospect of them having a quarter that doesn't quite meet people's expectations because as the CEO said on the last call, their revenues will be lumpy until Chase, BAC, and COF all are launched. Again, I'm just trying to take advantage of a weak market and hoping that it might drop the price of the stock or of other stocks that I like....and I also want to consider the possibility of diversifying my holdings. I'll probably be wrong and the stock will be at $9 soon but I figured I'd share it with you guys since you followed me into this.
And if the market continues to weaken further, then I'm afraid we have to consider the possibility that we may be in for a longer rough patch than we may have first expected. In looking at the 1907-1914 period (I know it doesn't make sense but its one of the few times I could find where there was a nasty panic in the banking sector that caused a big drop in the markets with a huge subsequent drop) there was a very sharp rebound in the markets for about 2 years which ultimately faded out and turned into a drop of 30% over the next 4-5 years. I kind of feel like we're in for the same going forward, but who knows...
Sold my Syngenta (SYT) shares today. Think AG stocks continue to pullback here as are still expensive and issues around crops and weather seem to be receding.
ReplyDeleteStill hold Dupont (DD) which is about 1/3 agriculture and MBAC Fertilizer in Brazil (and some Viterra in Toronto, but thinking of selling as well).
The market does this every time. Gets you down by selling off relentlessly, to the point where you're happy to exit your positions early?
ReplyDeleteBought some NLS with my MITK proceeds since I feel like this price is hard to pass up on...Long at $1.61 avg, 5k shs...
ReplyDeleteAdded more NLS...long 12k shs at $1.61 avg. I will wait to see if it closes it's gap to $1.50 and add some more. I believe there is no fundamental reason for it being sold off from $3.5 to $1.6 given the company is currently clearly in a turnaround with 2 straight quarters of positive net income and with a great balance sheet. Forced selling caused the drop as it's largest shareholders distributed its shares (who then clearly just sold them) to its investors after their CEO stepped down from the CEO post of NLS.
ReplyDelete"The market does this every time. Gets you down by selling off relentlessly, to the point where you're happy to exit your positions early? "
ReplyDelete2nd - I agree...I am trying to keep my mind open to either possibility, but given what looks like an important area for the market (although with today's strength and no breakdown, perhaps its just a normal correction) I personally am just trying to diversify a little bit and take advantage of some discounts that look overdone.
Junior Miners,
ReplyDeleteNice report on Kitco detailing analyst estimates for junior miners.
http://www.kitco.com/ind/matlack/jun212011_juniors.html
If you are willing to look out a couple of years and trust these estimates (and the metal prices which are driving these), a lot are trading at sub-5 P/E's.
Thanks for the heads up TOF.
ReplyDeleteBEXP - Okay, if those MOMO players sell it off before the GPL crashes(big if), I'll be legging back into BEXP.
ReplyDeleteOr maybe I buy some SVM, not quite sure yet.
Surely the desperate crude oil interventionistas have a secondary back-attack plan to suck more wind out of the PM sails? That would be right before the plan backfires in their smug faces.
Long DANG 10.35 I know. I know.
ReplyDeleteYou see how this works- they're trying to scare longs into dumping at the close...
ReplyDelete2nd - Yep, classic dump into the close to scare people off again...just what is needed to get enough off before making it's true move.
ReplyDeleteLikewise, though, the same could be said for today's pop to the bears. It's shaping up to be an important time for the market.
Looks like 1286 on /ES is the next target....we need to get above that to get some strength behind the market. I suspect that if we're going higher then we gap above it and leave enough people on the platform waiting to board the train
ReplyDeleteSo after an EOD dump, what's the next logical move? Probably a +200 point gap up, followed by a multi-week rally to new YTD highs.
ReplyDeleteActually, I have no clue what the market will do next, nor do I care.
ReplyDeleteAlthough it's interesting that tof and I arrived at the same scenario independently and posted our takes within a minute of each other.
ReplyDelete2nd > Yep definitely makes sense to me that we would gap up. Let's look at the positives because they are hard to with the media focusing on the negatives:
ReplyDelete*Looks like Greece is not going down no matter what
*Looks like our govt will ok raising the debt ceiling based
*Earnings? Pretty damn strong still...see FDX, ORCL, ACN, NKE.
*Valuations? 13 times earnings? When was the last time it was like that? The alternative? 2% in 10 year Treasurys? Puhhhh lease.
Having said that, I'm now sitting with about 20% cash which is the highest its been in a while. I'll be looking to add to my longs if we can get above 1,310 or if I see good deals.
TOF- 1286/1300.
ReplyDeletePatricia's Dad is out of the hospital.
MITK- My check limit for mobile deposit is $10K per check. That's a lot higher than what I was seeing earlier.
ReplyDeleteGlad to hear it, Mark.
ReplyDeleteMark > Good to hear that about Patricia's dad.
ReplyDeleteI've been using Paypal for mobile deposits and the daily limit is $1k. I've deposited about 10 checks already with it...it's a great service, but it's slow to deposit thru Paypal. It takes 5 business days to clear. I've read that it's next day with PNC...
I have to think that it's mainly small business owners like you and tof that would need limits that high.
ReplyDeleteIf I played futures I'd be buying right here with a stop below 73.25. I'll do it on paper instead
ReplyDelete2nd - You should try it out. It's such an easy convenient thing to use.
ReplyDeleteInteresting. These are everywhere but I've never seen one tied to a debit offering...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bizjournals.com/stlouis/news/2011/06/27/bank-of-america-plans-debt-offering.html?ana=yfcpc
Thanks guys. Poor bastard really got creamed.
ReplyDeletethat sucks mark.
ReplyDelete2nd- Yep, that's moving money in and out of my business. Really is nice for me, as I had to mail in a check before. Took about 4 days. Now it's next day.
ReplyDeleteI might try it someday, but right now, almost all of my deposits are electronic. Tax refunds and an occasional check from participation in focus groups are the only ones I need to make at the branch.
ReplyDeleteI went long ES at 1,277.75....targeting 1,286
ReplyDelete2nd > yea I don't get a ton but I have gotten 5 or so in the past month for odds and ends....
ReplyDeleteSmart money or a large hedge.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-27/single-trade-lifts-oil-gas-etf-put-volume-to-six-week-high-1-.html
ERO - Up, which would ordinarily indicate the dollar closed down... Oh I see PM's are green after close, now isn't that a cute little trick???
ReplyDeleteHey, did we ever determine a schedule for when US exports will be doubled? Maybe we'll accomplish that feat much quicker with a stronger currency, LOL!
ReplyDeleteOk, I made a big trade (for me) today selling 1k sh MSFT @ 25.18, at a profit with cost of 25.06. OK, profit was minimal at $106 net. Held for 1 1/2 months. At least it's intermediate term. MSFT is not delivering nor is CSCO but I have hopes for MSFT at lower levels. Now have mucho cash.
ReplyDeleteIn the late 40's long rates were still capped at 2.5% while inflation hit 17%. Bernanke will continue buying T's, in effect capping rates.
ReplyDeleteGood trade, illini! Enough to fill your car and buy lunch, or even pay your electric bill.
ReplyDeleteNow hopefully CSCO can do something for you, I saw in Bill's WIR he had a few things to say, indicating basically he thought it was oversold.
Thanks CP. I needed that. Not that I am a needy person, you understand. Just that I gobble up delicious crumbs occasionally.
ReplyDeleteWell, you might want to confirm the WIR reference for yourself, it could have been dated earlier for all I know. I often experience difficulty following Bill's thought process when he drags forward his successful picks from the past instead of listing them all in tabular form.
ReplyDeleteI noticed he attributed CSCO's problems to their switch business, but I had read another article that mentioned their peripheral businesses as being the problem.
Judging by the size and location of their San Jose, Ca. campus, I think their overhead could be the issue.
Hey illini why don't you buy some Dang with that mr. softee money.
ReplyDeleteDANG - LOL, you'll have to wait until tomorrow to find out why!
ReplyDeleteHmm, I don't see where BC claims he was buying more from his select group of jr PM miners today, you don't suppose he ran out of money or was forced to sell do ya?
ReplyDeleteNight, night boys and girls!
ReplyDelete2nd > I know you'll love this article:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/debt-crisis-macroeconomics-greek-debt-piigs/6/27/2011/id/35406
Chicken,
ReplyDeleteJust reading through an analyst report on one of my copper companies and it is fairly valued using a 10% discount NAV based on their projected long term price for copper of $2.50, but it is almost 50% undervalued if they price it using a 10% NAV based on current spot prices.
So, if the price of copper just hangs around this $4.00 range for the next couple of years and people become more comfortable that this is the long term price, there is loads of upside in the copper stocks.
2nd,
ReplyDeleteSounds like bc has become a Gold Miner Buy and Hold convert in this morning's comment.
FYI - the TSX Venture Exchange (where a lot of the small cap miners and energy companies reside) has completed a bear market and is now down over 20% since it's peak in early April, so perhaps these stocks are ready to move upwards.
ReplyDeleteGold - Looks like it may be headed for $1460 based on my interpretation of the chart...
ReplyDeleteBB - Glencore was pumping copper near the high, and I think they finally lowered their outlook, whatever that means.
I note that TLT was off a bit yesterday, if rates rise that would maybe take some wind out of commodities speculative investment, and/or speculative investment in general?
Perhaps all those big banks on Ben's easy money list have begun taking their commodity sector profits? After all, who else but HB&B could be the culprit for $115 oil?
Hey, wonder if we get to trade the new lab-grown synthetic beef?
ReplyDeleteAverage home prices in DC metro area are ahead 4% over last year.
ReplyDeleteBC says: "While most people are caught up in the day to day ebb and flow of the precious metal prices and related share prices, I believe there is only one ultimate direction for these prices and it is up. Moreover, as this development occurs, the prices of equities across the broad market will also lift as higher inflation and interest rates become the new normal as the monetary authorities give in to the private sector, their only hope."
ReplyDeleteAssuming rates rise, I would think that mechanism would tighten the noose on speculative investment.
Schwab is now applying the wash rule on my trades. This will make it harder to analyze each return. Does this happen to you guys?
ReplyDeleteMan, the $'s are flowing into energy.
ReplyDeleteWPRT - Up 8.5% today on news. CLNE & FSYS not doing too bad either. No position.
ReplyDeleteMark - yes on the wash rule application with my Fido trades
ReplyDeletegoing in for the stress-echo today, dr called yesterday and moved it up
Added to my NLS long this morning at $1.68. It sure looks to me like it has bottomed out but what do I know? I sold 1/4 of my MITK position yesterday :(
ReplyDeleteAdded some more NLS at $1.66. Now have 40k shs and am done building a position. I believe it has a good chance of doubling...
ReplyDeleteGL bro. Let me know how it goes.
ReplyDeleteANR - My local electric utility was just granted a rate increase.
ReplyDeleteTLT - Slightly red. Time to short T's?
ReplyDeleteChicken,
ReplyDeleteNot sure what to think of Glencore, but no way I would trust their estimates given what I've read about their culture. Think they are the Goldman Sacks of commodities and will be recommending 1 thing and doing another.
DANG - Look at it go... WTF?
ReplyDeleteBB - Agreed, GLEN.L cant be trusted and we'd be better off not hearing from them.
ReplyDeleteMany of the PM miner stocks gapped up, so there's still time to buy. I place an order for SVM at $8.75 in expectation the gap may fill today.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, I had canceled my $8.55 bid from last week that would've hit yesterday...
VECO - Looks good...
ReplyDeleteOut DANG
ReplyDeleteNice RB!
ReplyDeleteNLS getting a nice lift now
ReplyDeletePutting nls on watch. Would like to see more volume, but on a day life today probably hard when everyone is spreading it around. A buy over 1.75
ReplyDeleteLong COOL at $2.69
ReplyDeleteLNKD - I realize it doesn't have that special Chinese appeal, but I was contemplating this chart a few days ago...
ReplyDeleteGetting caught up.
ReplyDeleteCOOL, yeppers..1000 @ 2.76
Added more COOL at $2.74; 10k shs now. Zynga going public should add interest there.
ReplyDeleteActually that's 3000 shares.
ReplyDeleteNKE- Now that's impressive.
ReplyDeleteHey, where is everyone?
ReplyDeleteBEXP - $29.20 is where I sold my BEXP position June 8th.
ReplyDeleteCOOL- There she goes. Good job loading up twice TOF. Not enough conviction for me for that size.
ReplyDeleteMark > I'm here...I probably did a dumb thing but I bailed on 3/4 of my MITK in an attempt to make more money in COOL / NLS and then to get back into MITK. I loaded up on NLS and COOL today...got great prices on them. NLS at $1.67 avg and COOL at $2.73 avg...60k and 30k shs, respectively. With Zynga going public I could see COOL really spiking. The company is trading at like 7-8 times projected earnings for this year and earnings are growing like wildfire.
ReplyDeleteshort zagg at 14.25
ReplyDeleteinteresting play RB
ReplyDelete30K shares of COOL? Damn man, be careful.
ReplyDeleteI couldn't sleep holding 30K shares of COOL.
ReplyDeleteRB's zigg'in and a zagg'in... GL
ReplyDeleteMark, just drink Beer!
ReplyDeleteZAGG My thinking. Market up 2% zagg has gone no where. Plus a good hedge for HYC and WNR. Have a stop at 14.81 and a buy limit at 13.39. Problem is the momentum people are salivating at the BULL FLAG pattern that has worked for this stock. WTF
Mark > I don't know man...fundamentally that company looks good...that Zumba Fitness game is really taking off. Also, this is an important point I came across several days ago when u first started talking about it:
ReplyDelete"Majesco has been moving into the social/mobile space and has a close tie to Zynga, with its upcoming game, Parking Wars 2. Based on the A&E TV series, Parking Wars 2 is the second installment of the hit Facebook game. It is being developed by Area/Code, which was acquired by Zynga in January. The game is currently in beta-testing. If the game looks like a big enough hit, Zynga could present COOL with an attractive offer to keep it for itself. Given Zynga's larger audience, a deal could greatly benefit both sides. Either way, the tie to Zynga is sure to bring attention to COOL's stock."
tof - are you the same tof who posted on SOH last night and went long the ES in globex? I sure hope so as that was a balls out trade!
ReplyDeletehey JB > yep that was me...i rarely post on that site....i actually closed it out at break even...
ReplyDeletehow did your day go?
mark > is that you selling COOL after hours?
tof - at break even? man, you had it nailed, did you end up moving your stop up?
ReplyDeleteI didn't end up doing any trading today. I let my macro econ feels override my trading method so I paralyzed myself...DOH!
keep trading the ES, you seem to have a real knack for it
JB > i feel like the only way we can attempt to trade any market is to ask two simple questions:
ReplyDelete(1) what does everyone expect the market to do? then do the opposite.
(2) what move would get the most people off the train as the market moves?
other than that, i have little desire to trade the ES man....stocks are hard enough. dealing with expiration dates and huge leverage just makes it more stressful. then again, i'm currently invested in MITK, COOL, and NLS so what the hell am i talking about?
tof - LMAO...I always say "just do what works'!
ReplyDeleteMITK, COOL, and NLS. Best of Breed, Blue chippers to DIE FOR. LOL.
ReplyDelete