The surging market has turned my algo back to bull short term but has not nullified the intermediate term downtrend...yet. That will happen crossing SPX 1305. Then all three lights will be green for all three major indices probably.
SPX 1305 is the 63 day EMA and the magnetic attraction line for upside resistance or bouncing around before reaffirming an IT uptrend. 63 is the geometric mean between 20 and 200. SPX successfully withstood the 200 MA's, both the EMA and simple.
illini - So in other words, we might want to consider waiting until 1307 or so before putting on our shorts, right? That's how they do it, every turn is a fakeout. ;)
I know you trading hot shots know this, but the dollar has been walloped the last two days. So all we have to do to continue the good cheer is to continue to make the dollar worthless. :)
CP - Ha ha. Maybe one would be right in shorting at 1307. One never knows but that would be counter trend in the Stops & Targets system. S&T would be saying that the gain/risk ratio is favorable (>3) to hit an intermediate target above 1305 with that as a stop.
The reason I got into S&T was that I wanted to stay on the right side of the market trend. It's not bad in that respect for the major indices. Unfortunately perhaps, I don't trade SPY, QQQ, DIA much. More of a stock picker and that level of subscription is pretty high $. But at least it tells me not to short now unless I want to be contrary.
So where are we and how'd we get here? A credit binge causes a bust when debt builds up where work cannot pay it off. The debt gets shuffled from the debtors to the banks, from the banks to the government, and from the government back to the people in the form of taxes and/or inflation.
Increasing taxes are just another form of inflation, you cannot deploy capital with any certainty when your cost structure is undetermined.
Nice summary CP. I am living happily on modest means and a low tax bracket. In Illinois, my pension is not taxed. That could change but I am in the market mainly for my offspring and I do fear for them.
So assuming T' rates return to the mean (~6%), the increase to payments on treasury debt will be just north of $500B. This is roughly equivalent to our military budget. I don't think there's much doubt that ethanol subsidies ($9B) are history...
Mark > COOL sales of Zumba Fitness are going through the roof from what I'm reading in news articles. Add in hype surrounding Zynga and this actually looks pretty cheap
BAC - Wow, for some reason I'd overlooked the reaction there. Not sure why it's positive but definitely a good signal.
1303??? I guess new shorts must be about to cover if we can remain in this territory, the strategy doesn't seem to be working...?!?!? recapturing 1303 would be a signal to shorts they may want to exit flat and stand aside...?
no idea Mark...my goal of outrunning MITK is getting harder....I was happy this morning when NLS and COOL were up almost 10% each and MITK was flat...now I think I just made a lateral move.
COOL has some serious volume in it today...could be an explosive move by the end of the day
TOF- No man, you made a great move. Don't over play it.
Guys- Why don't we all pitch in and buy a Greek island? Set up a little trading colony. One guy trades for all of us while the rest swim and drink beer??
NLS really getting going here....there was no fundamental reason for a 50% drop in share price...the only reason it dropped was because of forced selling by its largest shareholder, who had to distribute shares as part of a pre-arranged agreement when they removed the CEO.
JB > the easy lifting has been done this week man but it sure seems like it's going to close the gap from June 1. It might be natural to pull back here a bit but I'm not looking to get cautious yet.
Mark > this COOL really might be a monster stock man. I really like their strategy...they're basically using all of the profits from Zumba Fitness and investing in the Facebook / online game strategy. Zynga shows just how profitable that strategy is. They are going to do over $500 Million in profits this year according to estimates.
COOL has a Hulk Hogan game coming out on FB and they also have a game called Parking Wars 2, which is based on the A&E TV show. I think they're both great game ideas and could really take off...this company is dirt cheap right now and if those games take off you could be looking at a company that just skyrockets. It's only trading at a market cap of like $120 Million.
Silver - The important figure for silver was $34.48 in my mind, which of course failed due to Murphy's primary market law. From an retrospective point of view it kinda looks like we needed to retest and put in a double bottom in order to dot the last "I" cross the last "T", and otherwise pay homage to the respective market gods...?
Perhaps if we quickly return to $36, the same upward trajectory can resume course?
Igor - RBY seems weak here, and based upon the news I can't in good faith recommend a position there.
Add to that, management seems to have lost touch in terms of communicating with shareholders (this really bugs me) and I no longer can imagine adding it to my portfolio.
CP - Thanks for your comment on RBY. My ECUXF position has finally executed at .964 which gives me about 8% profit over combined purchases. I still have 10000 shares left in ECU. Will keep those for a while longer. I want to re-invest the proceeds into PM space but I am not sure it is such a great idea to buy on an up day like today.
Igor - If you want silver or gold is the first question. I chose silver for various reasons but I'm not convinced one is necessarily better than the other. Silver is more volatile, so day traders are more interested?
Anyway, GPL is a real hot tamale and an entry around ~$3 or maybe as low as $2.52~$2.25 remains a possibility in my mind.
I also like SVM(downside target ~$8.65ish?) and AG. GG has silver now too, in addition to gold.
UXG has good management(okay a little cocky but still good), good shareholder communication it seems.
Anyway, I chose GPL b/c they're profitable ($10/oz COP), up and running, in production and delivering product to the market. In Mexico, not Brazil or Guatamala, Venezuela, etc....
Igor- No, I just think it's funny that the 'news' is not great really, and the stock shoots up. They also lost about 3K feet of drill pipe the other day. LOL...
The trade here was PXP, who would be the sellers if the news is correct.
guys: what else is overhanging BAC now? They had two huge hurdles cleared in the past 24 hours: (1) the mortgage debacle via Countrywide legacy mortgages
and
(2) Debit-card interchange fees issue that just got cleared
Now is THE time to be a buyer of BAC in my mind. I think it's clear to run up big now for the remainder of the year.
BAC - Too bad there's no transparency, for all I know the FED may have bought all their non-performing MBS's by now and they're ready to start lending and earning again as soon as ?_________? (recovery?) happens. Where'd the mountain of debt go?
Now maybe if the magic debt fairy can keep the dollar from rising too rapidly(that hopefully won't be a problem), it might work out.
RBY - I recall David mentioning something about electric power not arriving for at least another year or more. I'm not bashing RBY here though, that would be plain ignorant!
Who knows, I may buy some tomorrow myself, once I get a closer look at the chart from a few different perspectives. Could be a fantastic entry on a longer time horizon...
BAC - On Sept 9, 2008 I sold my 1st grandchild's account out of BAC at $34.82. What a move! I have not touched a financial stock since then. I think they are all screwed up to this day.
illini - I think we're at the point now though where everyone agrees they're screwed and everyone doubts this is the end of issues that will impact them. So what better time to invest than now!?!
NKE - That one would've been a good one to buy a few months back, huh?
ReplyDeleteThe surging market has turned my algo back to bull short term but has not nullified the intermediate term downtrend...yet. That will happen crossing SPX 1305. Then all three lights will be green for all three major indices probably.
ReplyDeleteSPX 1305 is the 63 day EMA and the magnetic attraction line for upside resistance or bouncing around before reaffirming an IT uptrend. 63 is the geometric mean between 20 and 200. SPX successfully withstood the 200 MA's, both the EMA and simple.
ReplyDeleteillini - So in other words, we might want to consider waiting until 1307 or so before putting on our shorts, right? That's how they do it, every turn is a fakeout. ;)
ReplyDeleteTOF- Nope, just got back. If COOL can get above the sale price from the CEO, man, that would be something this quickly.
ReplyDeleteI know you trading hot shots know this, but the dollar has been walloped the last two days. So all we have to do to continue the good cheer is to continue to make the dollar worthless. :)
ReplyDeleteCP - Ha ha. Maybe one would be right in shorting at 1307. One never knows but that would be counter trend in the Stops & Targets system. S&T would be saying that the gain/risk ratio is favorable (>3) to hit an intermediate target above 1305 with that as a stop.
ReplyDeleteThe reason I got into S&T was that I wanted to stay on the right side of the market trend. It's not bad in that respect for the major indices. Unfortunately perhaps, I don't trade SPY, QQQ, DIA much. More of a stock picker and that level of subscription is pretty high $. But at least it tells me not to short now unless I want to be contrary.
RB - Speaking of a lower dollar, BZF looks like you kind of chart. ;)
ReplyDeleteSo where are we and how'd we get here? A credit binge causes a bust when debt builds up where work cannot pay it off. The debt gets shuffled from the debtors to the banks, from the banks to the government, and from the government back to the people in the form of taxes and/or inflation.
ReplyDeleteIncreasing taxes are just another form of inflation, you cannot deploy capital with any certainty when your cost structure is undetermined.
Nice summary CP. I am living happily on modest means and a low tax bracket. In Illinois, my pension is not taxed. That could change but I am in the market mainly for my offspring and I do fear for them.
ReplyDeleteSpank-O-Meter for MS fixed income desk....Just around the corner.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-29/morgan-stanley-said-to-suffer-trading-loss-after-wager-on-u-s-inflation.html
So assuming T' rates return to the mean (~6%), the increase to payments on treasury debt will be just north of $500B. This is roughly equivalent to our military budget. I don't think there's much doubt that ethanol subsidies ($9B) are history...
ReplyDeleteBig difference between SPY and ES.
ReplyDeleteMean Drunks? I saw them having molotov cocktails in the streets of Greece... Going cold turkey is rough business.
ReplyDeleteLooks like sell the news. Even crude is rolling over.
ReplyDeletestrange gyrations going on. Will sit on hands here
ReplyDeleteBEXP off 29.71.
ReplyDeleteRBY - ???
ReplyDeleteCOLL off 3.05
ReplyDeleteSVM off @ 3.18.
ReplyDeleteshort es 97
ReplyDelete1/2 off 96, stop to BE
ReplyDeletemove up stop to 96.75
ReplyDeletes.o.
ReplyDeleteNice trade bro.
ReplyDeleteQ's red.
thx bro, should have given it more room but I'm playing really tight
ReplyDeletewill be watching 1297, we move back above that then I will go long otherwise looking for a spot to re-enter my short
ReplyDeleteYOKU dropped 2 bucks in about 12 minutes.
ReplyDeleteX - Well when does the gap close?
ReplyDeleteRBY results. Pretty big hit. What's the play CP?
ReplyDeleteWent flat all swing positions. Don't like action. Going back to bed.
ReplyDeleteSPY...See ya'.
ReplyDeleteRB > Don't get sucked out....we're going to 1,340 man.
ReplyDeletees and nq puking, I can't keep moving my stops up so fast, leaving may too many $$$ on the table
ReplyDeleteWTF is she wearing??!!
ReplyDelete1303 - So did we place our short bets according to schedule?
ReplyDeletemorning quiz.....which are bigger:
ReplyDeletea)mcc's boobs
b)mcc's gas mask
c)mcc's goggles
a new low for cnbc
guys - I think we continue gapping higher...earnings and this BAC news will continue to drive us higher.
ReplyDeleteI think BAC shoots up over the next month or two.
Mark > COOL sales of Zumba Fitness are going through the roof from what I'm reading in news articles. Add in hype surrounding Zynga and this actually looks pretty cheap
ReplyDeleteI'd like to see c on a.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Looks like you might be right. Pretty fing resilient.
RBY - This $4 level needs to hold, IMO.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to go ahead and put a buy limit in at 97 for the ES
ReplyDeleteBAC - Wow, for some reason I'd overlooked the reaction there. Not sure why it's positive but definitely a good signal.
ReplyDelete1303??? I guess new shorts must be about to cover if we can remain in this territory, the strategy doesn't seem to be working...?!?!? recapturing 1303 would be a signal to shorts they may want to exit flat and stand aside...?
CP - I have stops getting triggered at 02.50, so just about where you are, we break that it can go a long way up
ReplyDeleteBEXP - Sure is going gangbusters, wish I'd joined that rally...
ReplyDeleteok, I'm long the ES, 6 tick stop
ReplyDeleteSure looks as if shorts are gonna get their lungs ripped out.
ReplyDelete1/3 off +2 ticks,
ReplyDeletenice JB....
ReplyDeleteNLS getting some bids
1/3 off + 1 point, stop up to BE, will let a runner go
ReplyDeleteGiven the choice I naturally vote for boobs. In the case mcc is male, I vote for man boobs but only b/c I've already had breakfast.
ReplyDeletehop on int tof the water is fine...lol, futes have been wild this a.m.
ReplyDeleteCP - LMAO, made me spit up my coffee
ReplyDeletewe can run this sucker all the way to 02.50, then it will be a battle
ReplyDeleteSpeeking of boobs, given a choice between TNA and GPL, GPL appears to be the winner so far...
ReplyDelete7.81? WTH was that?
ReplyDeleteno idea Mark...my goal of outrunning MITK is getting harder....I was happy this morning when NLS and COOL were up almost 10% each and MITK was flat...now I think I just made a lateral move.
ReplyDeleteCOOL has some serious volume in it today...could be an explosive move by the end of the day
TOF- No man, you made a great move. Don't over play it.
ReplyDeleteGuys- Why don't we all pitch in and buy a Greek island? Set up a little trading colony. One guy trades for all of us while the rest swim and drink beer??
stop up to 1300...go baby go!!
ReplyDeleteDid you guys pick up the 10,000 COOL and 100,000 MITK for my account? I texted both of you on Monday.
ReplyDeleteNLS really getting going here....there was no fundamental reason for a 50% drop in share price...the only reason it dropped was because of forced selling by its largest shareholder, who had to distribute shares as part of a pre-arranged agreement when they removed the CEO.
ReplyDeleteGreek Island? I'm down. I'll bring the feta.
Bought 150 BAC August $12 calls at $0.25. I think BAC shocks everyone and runs up to $15 in a month. I'm willing to risk $4k for $45k.
ReplyDeletemove stop up to 1301
ReplyDeletethis is the critical level for the ES, 02.50
ReplyDeletetf looks like it is running out of gas so i'm going to move my stop up to 01.50
ReplyDeleteBEXP - Umm, that's a breakout by my definition. I'd love to see it hold and move higher. If they take it back down I intend on riding the next wave.
ReplyDeletethey got me. as expected the ES is running into a wall here. probably done for the day, heck probably done for the week, at least with the futes
ReplyDeletehere comes the selloff in COOL..just to shake people out like me that jumped in yesterday and have a 10% gain. Kind of like Monday's close in the S&P
ReplyDeleteprez talking = equities tank
ReplyDeletesurprisingly equities are holding their own in spite of obama babble
ReplyDeleteJB > we're going to 1314 this week
ReplyDeleteso it was definitely telling that copper never broke down huh? it's ramping right back up now.
ReplyDeleteis RBY a good entry now?
ReplyDeleteDecided to sell 1/2 of my ECU position (probably to Dave's disappointment) thinking of moving the funds to SLW (or SLV)
ReplyDeletetof - you've been nailing the ES lately so I'll defer to you!
ReplyDeleteJB > the easy lifting has been done this week man but it sure seems like it's going to close the gap from June 1. It might be natural to pull back here a bit but I'm not looking to get cautious yet.
ReplyDeleteJB > really the guy that has been nailing it is 2nd! His timing wasn't great but staying bullish through the drop was the right call.
ReplyDeleteMark > this COOL really might be a monster stock man. I really like their strategy...they're basically using all of the profits from Zumba Fitness and investing in the Facebook / online game strategy. Zynga shows just how profitable that strategy is. They are going to do over $500 Million in profits this year according to estimates.
ReplyDeleteCOOL has a Hulk Hogan game coming out on FB and they also have a game called Parking Wars 2, which is based on the A&E TV show. I think they're both great game ideas and could really take off...this company is dirt cheap right now and if those games take off you could be looking at a company that just skyrockets. It's only trading at a market cap of like $120 Million.
good job 2nd!!!
ReplyDeleteMark > Here is a link to how the game Parking Wars works....I can see how this would get popular.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.aetv.com/parking-wars/parking-warrior-game/
Silver - The important figure for silver was $34.48 in my mind, which of course failed due to Murphy's primary market law. From an retrospective point of view it kinda looks like we needed to retest and put in a double bottom in order to dot the last "I" cross the last "T", and otherwise pay homage to the respective market gods...?
ReplyDeletePerhaps if we quickly return to $36, the same upward trajectory can resume course?
Igor - RBY seems weak here, and based upon the news I can't in good faith recommend a position there.
ReplyDeleteAdd to that, management seems to have lost touch in terms of communicating with shareholders (this really bugs me) and I no longer can imagine adding it to my portfolio.
Nobody wants to risk today's gain on tomorrow?
ReplyDeleteCP - Thanks for your comment on RBY. My ECUXF position has finally executed at .964 which gives me about 8% profit over combined purchases. I still have 10000 shares left in ECU. Will keep those for a while longer. I want to re-invest the proceeds into PM space but I am not sure it is such a great idea to buy on an up day like today.
ReplyDeleteIgor - If you want silver or gold is the first question. I chose silver for various reasons but I'm not convinced one is necessarily better than the other. Silver is more volatile, so day traders are more interested?
ReplyDeleteAnyway, GPL is a real hot tamale and an entry around ~$3 or maybe as low as $2.52~$2.25 remains a possibility in my mind.
I also like SVM(downside target ~$8.65ish?) and AG. GG has silver now too, in addition to gold.
UXG has good management(okay a little cocky but still good), good shareholder communication it seems.
Bought 2k RBY @ $3.76 for the long term. Analysis on CC points out that the PEA is very conservative in it's assumptions and calculations.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, I chose GPL b/c they're profitable ($10/oz COP), up and running, in production and delivering product to the market. In Mexico, not Brazil or Guatamala, Venezuela, etc....
ReplyDeleteRBY is a basket case at this point, IMO.
ReplyDeleteTake a look at MMR and the news.
ReplyDeleteCheapy, does that mean you have sold out of RBY?
ReplyDeleteMark - Are you the lucky MMR holder?
ReplyDeleteMMR - Wow, nice! They may even have a decent chance of finding a few pockets of hydrocarbon deposits out there... it's been known to happen. ;)
ReplyDeleteIgor- No, I just think it's funny that the 'news' is not great really, and the stock shoots up. They also lost about 3K feet of drill pipe the other day. LOL...
ReplyDeleteThe trade here was PXP, who would be the sellers if the news is correct.
V/MA huge win.
ReplyDeletelook at V, I guess congress made some pro-business decision this afternoon.
ReplyDeleteMMR - Bought some on Marks recommendation... ;)
ReplyDeleteV/MA halted.
ReplyDeleteMITK halted!!!.....Just kidding...
ReplyDeleteGPL - A close over $3.37 would be an indicator of continuing interest.
ReplyDeleteGPL- That thing scares me.
ReplyDeleteis now a good time to take profits on V?
ReplyDeleteI still have a small 200 share position in it.
Igor- YES!!!
ReplyDeleteSold into the overall excitement 200 at 83.50
ReplyDeleteGo CSCO today!!
ReplyDeleteguys: what else is overhanging BAC now? They had two huge hurdles cleared in the past 24 hours:
ReplyDelete(1) the mortgage debacle via Countrywide legacy mortgages
and
(2) Debit-card interchange fees issue that just got cleared
Now is THE time to be a buyer of BAC in my mind. I think it's clear to run up big now for the remainder of the year.
If I had any guts, V is a short here.
ReplyDeleteBAC- Kinda inclined to agree with you here.
ReplyDeleteMITK- There has to be some news...listing?
ReplyDeleteMark > who knows man...MITK is a beast.
ReplyDeleteV: Ok fess up guys. Who bought calls expiring Friday? Feel free to buy drinks.
GPL - Not so sure what's scary about it, but now you've got me looking...
ReplyDeleteHold her down Luke, she's suckin' mud!
No, sad to admit I still own the piece of shit
ReplyDeleteGonna crawl back into my hole and go away again for what looks to be a very, very long time. Sorry that I'm so easily fooled.
ReplyDeletePS: The gold that was there still is, but the market was expecting much better results. I see no point dumping here.
ReplyDeleteCB - Stay in touch, it's always darkest before the dawn! We're pullin' for ya!
ReplyDeleteI always am the fool that gets tricked.
ReplyDeleteMyself, I never expected much better than that, but was too stupid/blind to see that everyone else did.
I have no hope left in me at all after today.
RBY - so it got knocked down to where it was last September. Not that big of a deal and they are closer than ever to production or a buyout.
ReplyDeleteBAC - Too bad there's no transparency, for all I know the FED may have bought all their non-performing MBS's by now and they're ready to start lending and earning again as soon as ?_________? (recovery?) happens. Where'd the mountain of debt go?
ReplyDeleteNow maybe if the magic debt fairy can keep the dollar from rising too rapidly(that hopefully won't be a problem), it might work out.
cb - sorry things are rough. when that happens to me I pull back the horns for awhile, things always look a bit brighter after some time passes.
ReplyDeletehang in there!
RBY - I recall David mentioning something about electric power not arriving for at least another year or more. I'm not bashing RBY here though, that would be plain ignorant!
ReplyDeleteWho knows, I may buy some tomorrow myself, once I get a closer look at the chart from a few different perspectives. Could be a fantastic entry on a longer time horizon...
BAC - not out of the woods yet based on recent article from Yahoo News, see below:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/BofAs-85-billion-settlement-apf-1797752491.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=
RBY - It ran up from 3.95 to 4.76 in just the 6 days before the report. So the 24% decline was from a lofty position based on high expectations.
ReplyDeleteBAC - On Sept 9, 2008 I sold my 1st grandchild's account out of BAC at $34.82. What a move! I have not touched a financial stock since then. I think they are all screwed up to this day.
ReplyDeleteillini - I think we're at the point now though where everyone agrees they're screwed and everyone doubts this is the end of issues that will impact them. So what better time to invest than now!?!
ReplyDeleteSIL - +2.77
ReplyDeleteTNA - +1.19
GDXJ - +3.16
UUP - -0.61
DBB - +1.46
S&P - +0.83
My personal alternative currency counterfeiter managed to meet my expectation today.
new post
ReplyDelete