Wednesday, June 29, 2011

06/29/11 Hey Joe



The market's not ready for the hangman yet.

Turns out it was headed south only to elude the Keystone Kops.

68 comments:

  1. Not a single one of those Kops saw a +330-point rise in DJIA Blvd last weekend.

    Except maybe for Altucher.

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  2. AXAS- How the hell did I miss it?

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  3. Mark- I didn't want to say anything. But the kinda money we pay for access to your blog...WTF...

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  4. The transition to large-cap value may finally be in sight.

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  5. 2nd- I'm ashamed of myself. You'll re-subscribe right?

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  6. Automatic credit-card transaction every month.

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  7. Not much I can do about it while in here, bro.

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  8. I wonder if this blog accepts mobile check payment? If so, I'll take the optional trial annual subscription. ;)

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  9. Did you get the smokes I sent to trade?

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  10. Already gone. I had to buy the internet drop that allows me to cash in on stuff like AXAS. Bro.

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  11. No worries. It also allows me to watch NFLX in here.

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  12. I'll be honest. If we break to new highs in July, I'll be hard-pressed not to take some off the table.

    Not saying it's going to happen.

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  13. Holy smokes, 1307.41 - Just inside the "safety zone"... Hmmm....?!?!?

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  14. Outside chance we gap up AGAIN on Thursday. And again on Friday.

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  15. Mobil payments:

    "Launched in early 2010, San Francisco-based Square, which has an office in St. Louis, now reportedly processes nearly $4 million in transactions a day. It has distributed hundreds of thousands of free credit card readers that can be plugged into iPhone and Android phones and iPads, for which the company has also built a free point of sale system for businesses to accept payments, track inventory and share menu and location information.
    This latest round values the company at $1.6 billion, sources told The New York Times. The company is expected to bring in $40 million in revenue but has yet to turn a profit."

    Non-public company with already large market cap.
    http://www.bizjournals.com/stlouis/news/2011/06/29/dorseys-square-raises-100-million.html

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  16. Just dropped by our friend AUY. Yep, she's still between 10 and 12.

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  17. Illini- Damn man, good find indeed!!! Man, those are some heavy hitters.

    BTW- Good tourny this weekend. Photos to come!

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  18. Illini- our little ole mitk makes a profit on $12 mill and is valued at$ 200 mill...guess it pays to go private

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  19. TF - That is what struck me too. Am seeing that the "payment" market is much more appreciated by Wall Street than the "deposit" market. Nevertheless, both are necessary.

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  20. Mark - Tourneys here are over a couple weeks ago. Peoria hosted a major one including teams from Chicago. My 9 yr old grandson was invited to join a local club as a sub and did quite well. I did not even know that there was another world of kids soccer going on in addition to the Park District. They do play at another level which is good. Travelling, that's another story for soccer mom's with a family of four. I guess you do it all the time?

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  21. ILLI Travel Soccer is an insane asylum run by the Mafia. Tread with caution. There is nicer folks in the gulag with 2nd.

    Big Caps. I like GE right here. The chart is perfect for a probing style trade for you low risk traders. Sure it is probably still a financial company, but if we continue with a Bull phase I could see a 10% run up next month. Rock solid stop below $18. Which is basically 3% risk for 10 % reward. I will try it for a month.

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  22. Now for ones who like a little risk. The dollar is still imploding. Where most think gold. I think Oil and Shorts. Wish i saw this before the close. WTI has a 27 % short interest. and if it breaches 26 it is going to take out all the captain obvious stops. I could see a 5 to 10 % run in an hour.. I am sure the shorts are right and it is a piece of shit stock, but this is a business for savages and the squeeze is there for those hedgies who like to take your money and run club soccer on the weekend!

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  23. RB - What do you think of today's advance for PAL?

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  24. WTI - Hmm, it's nor immediately apparent to me why so many shorts are all over that one although the squeeze theory sounds quite plausible.

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  25. CP - what in the world are you doing up at this hour?

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  26. I'm not a short term trader, but I think if we break to new highs, it will be the start of a large move upwards. I still think we end the year up 15% - 20%.

    All it would take is some good news on unemployment - corporation profits are still good, reduced unemployment will signify increasing demand.

    We may even get that 200+ point open 2nd keeps talking about!

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  27. Illini- Don't listen to RB. Travel soccer is all roses and kisses...Yes, we will be hitting the road now for most weekends through Nov. Your grandson is Kendra's age.

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  28. Some BAC price targets today.

    GS- 15
    UBS- 12
    S&P- 12

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  29. GE is kinda interesting here...

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  30. "Don't listen to RB. Travel soccer is all roses and kisses."

    That's precisely the type of verbage a soccer mafioso would employ, beware!

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  31. Mark > Another way to look at the price action in COOL is to compare it to the recent action in the SPY. Think in terms of getting as many people off the train as possible before making the big move...

    1.) It runs up $4 in early April then immediately drops to $3 (think egypt drop in SPY)
    2.) It then runs back up to $4 immediately (think pre Libya))
    3.) It then drops back hard to $2.5 (think Japan earthquake)
    4.) It then races to YTD highs at $4.5 (think Osama killing)
    5.) It then craters to mid 2's but holds $2.5 support (think Greece / Europe worries)

    The latest drop scared the crap out of confident longs and makes people question its strength.

    I think the same could be said for BAC

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  32. Finally some good news out of Lloyds (LYG). Think this is a $10 stock in a few years.

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  33. jb/Mark- I had a dream last night about the three of us traveling to Hong Kong. In this case, HK was 'located' in Northern California. We had a one-day stopover before flying to SoCal. We went to some mall to visit this 'wise' older Chinese guru- he wasn't there. On our way back, we passed a park where they asked us to replace a few large rocks/small boulders we had (supposedly) strewn along the path earlier. We bent to pick one up, and was surprised how light they were- I was able to lift one slab with one hand.

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  34. wow 2nd, what a trip. just yesterday I was talking to a guy who lived in HK and we were talking about life there (I worked there many times, always loved that city)....wonder what all this means???? other than the markets are going higher!

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  35. That's wild 2nd. I rarely remember my dreams.

    Great call on GE RB. I was this close but it jumped when I was looking at something else.

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  36. One of those rocks must have been the 50 DMA rock.

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  37. Your dream was a market related dream 2nd.

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  38. That's more like it Mark. I'm thinking 15 in a couple of months. BAC will get a shock and awe move when people least expect it....now seems like a good time for that.

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  39. The stock most leveraged to a continued economic expansion, with the lowest risk: NLS.

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  40. GPL/BEXP - For grins and giggles, I checked GPL's tops correlations using the correlation tracker and guess what popped to the top of the list?

    BEXP, LOL!

    http://www.sectorspdr.com/correlation/

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  41. We can fit the 'best days' scenario (where most of the gains in each index/stock occur during a tiny fraction of each year's trading days) into the 80/20 rule. 80% of gains are accounted for by 20% of trading days.

    The last 4 days? Unless you were in buy-and-hold mode, I don't think you would have captured the entire move.

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  42. ZINC - This one looks interesting at the 50/200 crossover...

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  43. RBY - Bill made comment on RBY this morning, FYI and FWIW in case you missed it:

    "Also yesterday I attended the AGM of Rubicon. I will gather my notes later, but suffice it to say that I believe the situation is not as positive as I had hoped. I remain an investor but will lower my target price and extend my time frame for expecting positive developments from this company and their superior gold property in Northern Ontario."

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  44. RBY - Update - Bill had more to say some time later, basically he thinks RBY is oversold but needs to work through some management issues...

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  45. I'm telling you- the market does not care if your name is Todd Harrison, Landry, Hussman, or Birinyi. It just keeps bouncing all timers off the walls.

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  46. You guys probably wont believe this, but I bid 3,000 RBY @ 3.28 @ S2. Just sold for 3.51/.52 for $700 bucks.

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  47. RBY - BC has a follow up post on this one.

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  48. KOG- Even my untrained eye thinks the latest deal isn't so great.

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  49. End of QE2...TBT...Is it really that simple? Can it be?

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  50. No freaking way any 'timer' saw +500 points on the DJIA coming. Even if a few of them sensed it, no way they caught the entire gain.

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  51. Mark - If you'd have told us in advance where RBY S2 was, we may have elected to join in on the fun and out of common courtesy would have set our bid(s) a penny or so under yours.

    Further, don't lecture us in the future about how proceeds from your blog service are so damn thin! ;)

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  52. Well, maybe it's time to say I haven't been lulled into a false sense of complacency by today's action....

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  53. CP- I almost always do. It just seemed so farfetched I didn't really consider it possible. My bad.

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  54. Nice spike into the close for NLS...someone bought 60k shs.

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  55. SPY and SPX - Today's close completes a 3 point resistance top rail. Beginning of May, beginning of June, end of June.

    http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=spy

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  56. SPY - Yep, I bet some shorts loaded up today. Wonder how tomorrow treats them?

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  57. CP > The logical move is to short here...if it works it will take a couple of days and get the shorts extra nervous.

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  58. But CP, we all know logic is not important when it comes to the market

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  59. it's guts, and patience.

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  60. If the same pattern as early September plays out here is what would happen:

    *Most likely tomorrow will be flat to slightly green
    *Then we will get an flat to slightly green open on Tuesday
    *Followed by a selloff for about a day or so down to almost 1,300
    *Then a nice rebound and another drop
    *Then I think we begin a slow steady ascent.

    The S&P has been in a sideways to down period since February. The time between late April 2010 and late August 2010 is almost the exact same between February 2011 and now. Can history repeat itself and set up for a long bull run into the close of 2011? 2nd thinks so.

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  61. S&P - +1.01%
    SIL - -0.21%
    SLV - -0.50%
    UUP - -0.47%
    ERO - +1.80%
    GLD - -0.80%
    GDX - +0.40%
    GDXJ- +1.50%

    My portfolio ended the day flat. Step one: Pull head out of sand?

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