Thursday, June 30, 2011
06/30/11 A Thousand Kisses Deep
The ponies run, the girls are young
The odds are there to beat
You win a while and then it's done
Your little winning streak
And summoned now to deal with your
Invincible defeat
You live your life as if it's real
A thousand kisses deep
I'm turning tricks, I'm getting fixed
I'm back on Boogie Street
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Let's say we get 20+ straight green closes over the month of July. Kind of like 2 hours straight of seven-outs. I've seen the latter.
ReplyDeleteWould you have the guts to stay long through 20+ straight green closes?
Do you realize 1500 is only a 14% move from 1320?
ReplyDeleteS&P - +1.01%
ReplyDeleteSIL - -0.21%
SLV - -0.50%
UUP - -0.47%
ERO - +1.80%
GLD - -0.80%
GDX - +0.40%
GDXJ- +1.50%
My portfolio ended the day flat. I wasn't particularly pleased with PM action today but other metals are started looking slightly better and LME copper resumed it's fall, step one: Pull head out of sand?
"LME copper resumed it's fall"
ReplyDeleteInventory, that is.
2nd - My algo has had 1426 as LT target/resistance since it turned bullish in early Dec 2010. New long positions do not have a favorable gain to risk ratio but it is still a bull market, now in all three time frames actually.
ReplyDeleteillini - just curious, did the algo u use only first turn bullish in dec 2010 since the bear market ended?
ReplyDelete2nd - i think 1,500 is still in sight. if we ever get a hint of wage inflation (i.e., sustained jobs growth) then its probably a guarantee.
I'm sure 1500 is in the cards. The real stretch is 2300+.
ReplyDeleteSPX --- Looks like a H-n-S forming w/ the 1344 from mid-Feb, the 1370 from early May, and SPX is moving toward the 1339 from early Apr. Let's see how it handles the 1345.20 region from 1 June...
ReplyDeleteI think the most interesting news item today was Ca. passing it's 'budget' and taxing Ca. internet transactions. AMZN instantly flips Ca. the finger and shit cans all of it's Ca. ties to suppliers/sellers.
ReplyDeleteBrilliant, dick heads.
Damn Yanks, this neighborhood has gone to the dogs overnight!
ReplyDeletehttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304314404576413984028888352.html?ru=yahoo&mod=yahoo_hs
And I've really had it with BAC as well!!!
ReplyDeleteVXX - LOL, that gain is gone.
ReplyDeleteTwo favorites in one spot . Ramen and James brown. A must see.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.tucsonweekly.com/TheRange/archives/2011/06/30/james-brown-stars-in-the-best-youtube-video-ever-possibly
2300 this year? That's a 70% move.
ReplyDeleteI think we get a +20% this year - just need some decent employment data.
As far as holding through 20 green closes, no problem unless the valuations got way out of whack. Let's say CSCO hit $50 giving a market cap of $280 billion - I'd be long gone. 20 green days of up $0.10 to $17.50, be happy and holding.
Commodities turn, U$D, with stocks higher?
ReplyDeleteGPL - Out @ $3.21/+5.25%, can't allow all my gain to disappear.
ReplyDeleteMarathon Oil spun off its refinery biz today so what remains of the ticker MRO is down over 20 points this morning. I used to hold MRO when the refinery part was hurting the stock.
ReplyDeleteRBY - So maybe now I can pick some up soon...
ReplyDeleteWhat'd I tell you? NO one tells the market what to do. NO one predicted this.
ReplyDeleteRBY play...Bidding 3000 @ S2 $2.99. Works twice?!
ReplyDeleteMRO - Ha, of course, the market doesn't ever discriminate!
ReplyDeleteShorts = retired, market imposed
ReplyDeleteMetal miners - Returning from near death? Gonna wait till after amateur hour, maybe the euro's breaking down after all?
ReplyDeleteMRO - The market's just like a gaggle of ducks, they ALWAYS find SOMETHING about their environment to worry about.
ReplyDeleteTF - You asked a very important question about my algo last evening ... "illini - just curious, did the algo u use only first turn bullish in dec 2010 since the bear market ended?" So I will try to answer as best I can since there is no archive available except some of their daily email summary's some of which I saved. It is not possible to copy or print what is presented on the webpage/snapshot during the trading day or anytime but I will try to summarize what they say regarding the long term call.
ReplyDeleteThe basic answer to your question from the present webpage is that they say the LT SPX turned bullish @ 1088.23 on Sept 2,2010. That was 241+ points ago for a gain of 22.2%. Now, I know from my saved emails that there was at least one "sell partials" signal after the Sept 2 date which would account for the last and current bull signal being shown as Dec 2,2010 @ 1247.5 with a target of 1426.
I will look back further in the emails to see what was going on but they only begin in Nov 2009.
UGA - Now don't forget to run out and fill your gas tank before close today, else you'll be paying higher prices to get home from your July 4th road trip.
ReplyDelete1400+ Sure looks possible based on the trendlines.
ReplyDeleteThen I go short once the trendline is hit, like I should've done last time.
buy usmo @15.30, this is a long term play
ReplyDeleteCAT - Headed for 52wk high?
ReplyDelete2nd - Thanks for all the encouragement you gave to all of us longs during the rough patch. It is so important not to get into the panic mode. Your cool and determination to stay the course is highly appreciated. I hope everybody is enjoying the "fruits of our labor" over the last 4 sessions. GO 20+ green closes in July!!
ReplyDeleteOn a seperate not saw an article on near term headwinds to PM's due to QE2 expiration. Decided to wait a bit before getting into PM's to see if I can get some rock bottom pricing there.
Something's up, markets don't move like this without good reason.
ReplyDeleteSo what changed?
PM miners aren't following through on their morning sickness, I guess traders aren't buying the "PM's are about to be crushed" story.
ReplyDeleteSo please go ahead and crush them, I'll be there to pick up the pieces, I dare ya!
VXX - Anybody think it might be time?
ReplyDeleteVXX - Every time I try that one I get 'screwdoodled' to use a Sharkism. Najarian mentioned that he prefers VIXY over VXX, but his reasons may be options related.
ReplyDeleteRBY - Go RBY, go!!!
ReplyDeleteSold the remainder of my MITK only because I think NLS is presenting a really unique opportunity to buy at a discount. Bought more NLS around $1.88 avg and I now have a big position in NLS at a $1.73 avg.
ReplyDeleteigor- The observation that being 'out to lunch' when the market makes its (few) moves can cost you? It's making a big statement this week!
ReplyDeleteAll week long Landry has been emphasizing that the short side was the right play.
ReplyDelete"All week long Landry has been emphasizing that the short side was the right play."
ReplyDeleteWell maybe he found a better entry today... ;)
Sheesh, now that was one heck of a rally today. Wonder what the encore has in store, more of the same?
ReplyDeleteI'm not arguing, just confused by it.
GPL -> SVM Lateral move. Okay, so I felt compelled to move over to SVM and test those waters...
ReplyDelete"Silvercorp currently operates four mines at its Ying camp, in China's Henan province, where the company produced 1.05-million ounces of silver in the three months ended March 31.
Cash costs for the period were an impressive negative $7.61/oz of silver after accounting for revenue from by-product metals, making the company the lowest-cost producer among North American peers."
Here is the best answer I have to the question of when did my algo go bullish after the end of the bear market in March 2009. It's a blog post by a retired trader "Swinger" posted on the Obamagirl17.blogspot.com site on Oct 20, 2009. Now, it was only Sep or Oct 2009 that the algo or "trading tool" went public to subscribers and the post references what allegedly occurred in July 2009 for SPY. In between those periods Swinger, who says he had a small part in the algo's development, was making informative posts about the algo results during its Beta configuration. So here is what he said in Oct 2009 which states that it went Bullish in July. From my emails I can verify that it stayed bullish LT except for one period of from May 20 to July 22 in 2010 when the market was zigging and zagging around it's 200 day EMA which was flat lined:
ReplyDelete"When you are doing things the right way, there is not generally much 'flipping' going on once a position is established.
For example, on SPY:
Long-term trend turned bullish at 97.03 on July 23, 2009
Intermediate trend turned bullish at 89.53 on July 13, 2009.
Short-term trend turned bullish at 104.51 on October 6, 2009.
All those trades have profits locked in (see protective stop and stop/reversal lines in S&T) and so any activity at lines now is just fine-tuning to take profits and to redeploy capital.
Like I have said before, it is not intuitive to trade this way—and it takes some readjusting for most people and a development of patience to ride the ripples. Just a matter of how open-minded one is to accept something different. S&T is quite a powerful and sophisticated tool, but if one is looking for an affirmation of a particular bias at all times, then S&T is going to disappoint. It is programmed to adjust to what is real and now—and it could care less about how we humans feel about what the market ‘should’ be doing.
Here are a couple of hard and fast ‘rules of thumb’ that can help people to use S&T the way I do…
1) Never ever go short above a primary trend line in a selected timeframe and never ever go long below. (The trend is your friend)
2) Any existing long trade MUST be covered on a move below a primary trend line. Any existing short must be covered on a push above a primary trend line. (Capital preservation is always the most important aspect of trading—obviously, no capital, no trading)
3) The only selling that occurs during a primary uptrend is to take profits on existing trades and the only buying that occurs in primary downtrends is to cover short partials. (Pay yourself and lock in gains to satisfy greed—take some off to satisfy fear. Make a deal to split with your emotions to keep each in check)
Now, how and when one manages to do those things is entirely up to the user. Trading is a tough business and people need to understand that there are very smart people on the other side of their trades just waiting for them to make a careless mistake. Whipsaws are a part of the game. Nothing can be done except to develop a personal system that takes the signals but also protects one’s capital in a manner that seems appropriate and within the personal constraints established.
S&T’s job is to make sure it presents a consistent analysis no matter what the market does. It is not a fortuneteller and if one is looking for someone to guarantee 100% success on every entry, then one should be prepared to be greatly disappointed. Everyone loses in this game. The differences between those that succeed and fail over time are the size of the losses relative to the size of the gains."
Take a look at the bid/ask ratio for CPST.
ReplyDeleteat this rate I won't need to find a job, the port is growing faster than rebekah's spend!
ReplyDeleteHappy 4th guys, have a fun/safe long weekend
seriously....wow. what a week. i bet some options traders retired off this week alone.
ReplyDeleteRE: COOL
ReplyDeleteApparently the Zumba Fitness game they sell is doing really well. they are already ahead of estimates for the entire quarter and there's another month of sales left. Estimate is for $17 Million for entire quarter for entire company. This looks like they could do $28 Million this quarter (assuming same run rate and Zumba making up 75% of sales as it did last quarter), which would equate to $0.12 per share in the quarter versus estimates of $-0.02. With several game launches coming up on Facebook, this could really get a lot of momentum behind it:
http://davianletter.com/content/2011/7/1/zumba-fitness-sales-week-32