I honestly don't understand why someone would buy AMZN here...what's the rationale? I mean I understand it's the best internet retailer but at some point valuation has to matter. It's now trading at over 90 times 2011 earnings and about 40 times free cash flow. I just don't quite get how someone things they can make significant money investing in the company right now...maybe over a 10 to 15 year time horizon....
CP - "Sight"? I made no trades today nor do I expect to until there is another downdraft. Going long term with CSCO and MITK and maybe RBY & CEF as insurance. Forgot to mention SDIX but it remains a micro cap and a smaller holding. KCLI is in my sights. BTU is still a (bad?) holding. Rather volatile for a big energy/mining company.
Here is a Yahoo portfolio that I set up on Oct 5, 2005. It's a bit ragged with all the changes to individual stocks. Hope it comes through because I have to give a password to get to it, not that it is personal. Let me know.
illini - BTU - I'm still thinking the Mongolian possibility, assuming it materializes, will be great for BTU in the long run and in the short run so to should energy prices.
Seems like a great place to park capital with an eye on growth to me.
Okay now, while we're waiting to see illini's prehistoric ideas, it's back to admiring bizarre facial adornments...:
RE: MITK - It seems like $7.45 is creating somewhat of a resistance point for the stock. Not saying it ain't worth much more longer term but it couldn't push through this point today despite being marginally higher at one point.
This is the best I can do with a cut and paste. Its only the letter "A" mostly and unfortunately there are no red/green color codes so you have to observe whether it is a gain or loss:
SYMBOL MKT VALU PRICE PAID GAIN & % GAIN 52-WK RANGE
I like using AMZN (and EBAY) to research and buy stuff, but it is a very expensive stock and I do believe the states will get their act together and start taxing internet transactions and this will hurt one of their competitive advantages. This will either squeeze margins or hurt revenues - has to do one or the other and this will pressure the stock.
Mark > COOL is looking really good. Sales of Zumba continue to look strong. If the Zumba franchise is a long lasting one this is dirt cheap. Only time will tell on that one.
"No excuse not to manufacture in US" GM's Lutz says.
"There is a dawning awakening on the part of most Americans that we cannot maintain Fthe wealth of the nation by being bond traders [and] lawyers," he tells Aaron in the accompanying interview. "At some point the country has to get back to work and create wealth through mining, agriculture or manufacturing."
Finally, can the US turn a corner? It's been quite a while since I've seen American products on store shelves here... Plenty of US made stuff in Iraq and Afghanistan but none here aside from the two military jets that just buzzed my house.
PMI - I've been waiting for something like that. Too darn scared of it to jump in though.
Now if they were able to win a lawsuit against fraudster banks, the stock should really go somewhere. But somehow I doubt that can happen considering PMI falls into the category of: "Guilty of writing policies without proper DD", and since their business isn't based on perpetrating fraud, they of course get no taxpayer bailout.
I'll stick with hard assets for now until: 1) The system collapses, or 2) Everyone receives their bailout check.
Some of these valuations are just ridiculous....I'd have to think we're in a bubble in a lot of these highfliers. Again, why would someone ever pay 90 times for AMZN when it's a 90 Billion company? I can understand it when it's a $5 Billion company and has a huge opportunity ahead of it, like BIDU did at $140 (pre split) but this is silly. Same goes with NFLX, OPEN, etc.
Mark > if you look at the daily volume on COOL it sure seems like there is a lot more volume on the up days than the down days, which would suggest that people are buying up the stock.
I'm probably crazy but I just get a feeling that this is setting up for a big disappointment for longs. Today was yet another squeeze higher and it resulted in what looks like will be a flat / down day. On the flip side I guess you could say after this big move up it's great that it ain't just dropping lower. I'm biased in making this call but I think we're setting up for a similar trading range like what we had last summer.
The DJIA didn't close +100? Alright, let's give it another try on Wednesday.
ReplyDeleteOh no, not "The Terrible Two's" again! :o
ReplyDeleteI honestly don't understand why someone would buy AMZN here...what's the rationale? I mean I understand it's the best internet retailer but at some point valuation has to matter. It's now trading at over 90 times 2011 earnings and about 40 times free cash flow. I just don't quite get how someone things they can make significant money investing in the company right now...maybe over a 10 to 15 year time horizon....
ReplyDeleteALU - There's a gap up from $5.50, one could place a stink bid around say $5.25ish with the expectation the gap will eventually fill?
ReplyDeleteI see plenty of gaps up here and there that need to fill, bears must be salivating at the site of these.
sight
ReplyDeleteseeing
ReplyDeleteCP - "Sight"? I made no trades today nor do I expect to until there is another downdraft. Going long term with CSCO and MITK and maybe RBY & CEF as insurance. Forgot to mention SDIX but it remains a micro cap and a smaller holding. KCLI is in my sights. BTU is still a (bad?) holding. Rather volatile for a big energy/mining company.
ReplyDeleteHere is a Yahoo portfolio that I set up on Oct 5, 2005. It's a bit ragged with all the changes to individual stocks. Hope it comes through because I have to give a password to get to it, not that it is personal. Let me know.
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/portfolio/tpf_RUlpQp64j7Ri4Z4-/view/v3
Illini- Link didn't work. I'd love to see what you were thinking in 2005. That might be something constructive we should do.
ReplyDeleteillini - BTU - I'm still thinking the Mongolian possibility, assuming it materializes, will be great for BTU in the long run and in the short run so to should energy prices.
ReplyDeleteSeems like a great place to park capital with an eye on growth to me.
Okay now, while we're waiting to see illini's prehistoric ideas, it's back to admiring bizarre facial adornments...:
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/bigphotos/22368792.html
RE: MITK - It seems like $7.45 is creating somewhat of a resistance point for the stock. Not saying it ain't worth much more longer term but it couldn't push through this point today despite being marginally higher at one point.
ReplyDeleteThis is the best I can do with a cut and paste. Its only the letter "A" mostly and unfortunately there are no red/green color codes so you have to observe whether it is a gain or loss:
ReplyDeleteSYMBOL MKT VALU PRICE PAID GAIN & % GAIN 52-WK RANGE
AA $16.39 22.95 $6.56 28.58% 9.92 18.47 1
ACN $61.75 24.95 $36.80 147.49% 36.05 62.09 1
ADP $53.67 43.04 $10.63 24.70% 38.41 55.12 1
ADSK $38.87 44.81 $5.94 13.26% 23.64 46.15 1
AMGN $57.92 78.01 $20.09 25.75% 50.26 61.53 1
AMZN $213.19 44.49 $168.70 379.19% 105.80 214.45 1
APOL $47.03 62.9 $15.87 25.23% 33.75 53.78 1
AVP $27.72 26.72 $1.00 3.74% 25.51 36.20 1
AZO $297.14 81.36 $215.78 265.22% 183.70 298.53 1
BAC $11.00 41.96 $30.96 73.78% 10.40 15.72 1
BEBE $6.42 17.15 $10.73 62.57% 5.36 7.32 1
No such ticker symbol: BMET Try Symbol Lookup
Note the tremendous gain in Amazon. Let me know if you want more from the alphabet.
When the shit hits the debt ceiling fan Aug 2nd, do SS checks still still go out? If not, there'll be quite a few folks meeting with disappointment!
ReplyDeleteSOLR!!!
ReplyDeletePortugal Downgrade - Okay, I guess this might be another staged replay, rinse and repeat?
ReplyDeleteI like using AMZN (and EBAY) to research and buy stuff, but it is a very expensive stock and I do believe the states will get their act together and start taxing internet transactions and this will hurt one of their competitive advantages. This will either squeeze margins or hurt revenues - has to do one or the other and this will pressure the stock.
ReplyDeleteTaxing internet transactions - What does the rest of the world do outside of the US?
ReplyDeleteTrapped in a fishbowl here...
Big banks getting spanked again. Can't we just get these priced correctly and move on?
ReplyDeleteFailed breakout in COOL? Only the Team knows!!!!
ReplyDeleteBEXP - High today was $31.11, so the low should be under $30.11, right?
ReplyDeleteUnless it puts in another high, of course.
I'll definitely be buying if I ever see $25 again...
Mark > COOL is looking really good. Sales of Zumba continue to look strong. If the Zumba franchise is a long lasting one this is dirt cheap. Only time will tell on that one.
ReplyDeleteCP- S2 for BEXP is 30.14, so it should get it 1 buck move ;)
ReplyDeleteTOF- Yeppers. Just waiting for an entry again. If I don't get it, on to the next one.
ReplyDelete"No excuse not to manufacture in US" GM's Lutz says.
ReplyDelete"There is a dawning awakening on the part of most Americans that we cannot maintain Fthe wealth of the nation by being bond traders [and] lawyers," he tells Aaron in the accompanying interview. "At some point the country has to get back to work and create wealth through mining, agriculture or manufacturing."
Finally, can the US turn a corner? It's been quite a while since I've seen American products on store shelves here... Plenty of US made stuff in Iraq and Afghanistan but none here aside from the two military jets that just buzzed my house.
yeah it's a risky one Mark.
ReplyDeleteNEM - Keeping an eye on this one. I wish I'd bought it at the 52wk low ($50)... Must've been sleeping or watching something else too closely.
ReplyDeleteStill, it's only +8.5% off that low... and it's getting all kinds of attention as well.
BTU - Sure was a bargain last month, note the December 2010 gap up closed....
ReplyDeleteBORN almost up 100% of the lows.
ReplyDeleteGot to rum.
ReplyDeletePMI?
PMI - I've been waiting for something like that. Too darn scared of it to jump in though.
ReplyDeleteNow if they were able to win a lawsuit against fraudster banks, the stock should really go somewhere. But somehow I doubt that can happen considering PMI falls into the category of: "Guilty of writing policies without proper DD", and since their business isn't based on perpetrating fraud, they of course get no taxpayer bailout.
I'll stick with hard assets for now until: 1) The system collapses, or 2) Everyone receives their bailout check.
Some of these valuations are just ridiculous....I'd have to think we're in a bubble in a lot of these highfliers. Again, why would someone ever pay 90 times for AMZN when it's a 90 Billion company? I can understand it when it's a $5 Billion company and has a huge opportunity ahead of it, like BIDU did at $140 (pre split) but this is silly. Same goes with NFLX, OPEN, etc.
ReplyDeleteGPL - $3.58 was key resistance...
ReplyDeleteTOF - You're preaching to the choir on that one.
ReplyDeleteCOOL looking awesome.
ReplyDeleteAdded to my BGZ just now at $32.88
ReplyDeleteMark > if you look at the daily volume on COOL it sure seems like there is a lot more volume on the up days than the down days, which would suggest that people are buying up the stock.
ReplyDeleteI'm probably crazy but I just get a feeling that this is setting up for a big disappointment for longs. Today was yet another squeeze higher and it resulted in what looks like will be a flat / down day. On the flip side I guess you could say after this big move up it's great that it ain't just dropping lower. I'm biased in making this call but I think we're setting up for a similar trading range like what we had last summer.
ReplyDeleteSold the rest of my NLS...sold all of my puts/BGZ at breakeven...waiting for the ramp into the close to re-enter
ReplyDelete....To be concluded....
ReplyDelete