Read through a few of the posts attached to this song. It's amazing how many songs from the late sixties elicit stories of receiving Dear John letters while in 'Nam.
TF, yes MITK is a "beast" but wild animals can be utterly unpredictable when not fed enough volume. It took me a month to get out today at a nice profit. It wasn't that easy. I was looking at 7.77 bid at a small # of shares vs 7.80 offered with a lot bigger number of sh and no movement. Suddenly the ask went down a penny with 10k shares offered. I had only a few hundred to sell and undercut the block by a penny which was not even acknowledged by the OTC BB. More stalemate followed but got a fill which was lucky, I thought. It went down then closed at $7.85.
TOF- I'm just amazed you know the % diff if you had held! Crazy man.
I'm thinking the clock is winding down on a possible Nasdaq listing which should be before earnings. I spent enough time looking into it to believe the listing in a done deal. They qualify, easy.
Savings of $3 trillion to $4 trillion over the next decade. Hmm... Cuts in Social Security as well as Medicare?
Knowing government is so desperate to screw me every way they can in the name of rescuing sunk bankers taking home obscene pay makes me even more inclined to hold T's than ever!
AUMN/ECU - Hmm, this is the old APEX Silver Exploration company that filed Chapter-11 a few days after I'd bought a few shares... Still a minor black mark to the tune of $250 sitting in my portfolio taking up space on the page.
"Because spending habits change when living costs increase, some experts think these measures are too generous, and want to change all of the COLAs to a different, smaller measure of inflation: the so-called "chained-CPI."
Federal pensioners, like me, would also be included. I do not get SS and in fact have early money in it which is gone forever.
Pelosi is fighting the Prez and GOP on this today, as well as the venerable AARP.
Mark > Yeah they will get Nasdaq listing very soon, then liquidity will pour in. Based on some sillier valuations of mobile payments type companies I wouldn't be surprised to see this up in the $20's within 12 months.
WPRT - I was looking at the March gap, doesn't seem to have filled. That won't matter if Congress passes a bill that changes the fundamental aspects (assuming something didn't accomplish that in March).
Judging by CLNE and FSYS charts, the gap was a result of a promise to pass some form of natty subsidy, and that has yet to happen.
AARP - "Pelosi is fighting the Prez and GOP on this today, as well as the venerable AARP."
Yeah, I haven't been able to understand that one yet. The representation on;y supports those who've already begun receiving their benefits I guess, and the new legislation won't affect them?
Gimme my money back, along with my tax money wasted on the Bush family wars.
CP - My interpretation is that the floated idea of a reduced COLA would affect all. Would save billions and force a few oldies from dog food to chicken feed. Or has that gone up a lot too?
Actually, it has gone up even more, about $0.29 a pound now. Chicken food isn't very good though, my dog won't eat it anymore(he saw chickens eating the stuff, so wanted some.
You can buy a 50lb bag of horse-quality oats for about the same or less, every bit as good as oatmeal from the store but 50lbs is a lot to store. 50lb horse sweet feed with molasses is comparable in price as well.
Hey, maybe we'll go into a deflationary spiral and their plan to cut by "chained CPI" will backfire, LOL?
"July 7, 2011 9:31 AM EDT BofA/Merrill Lynch downgraded shares of North American Palladium (NYSE: PAL) to an Underperform rating from its previous rating of Neutral."
From what I understand, PAL has a very nice palladium deposit in the lower offset zone, not sure if they'll need cash to get to it.
The way I look at it is profits are still very good even with a bad job market and valuations are cheap.
Just imagine what will happen when the job market actually picks up. Profits will increase and analysts will actual start to put growth valuations on some companies and you will get double upside.
From Buffet yesterday, all his companies are doing better except the ones related to home building. Specifically his brick company is producing 40 million bricks per year down from 100 million. Home construction is very labour intensive and will pick up at some time as the US is only building 500K homes per year, far less than the 1.5 million required in a balanced market. He thinks home construction may pick up by the end of the year, but if not then, it will at some point and that will really help drive unemployment down.
wow...jeez this market is insane. I'm really glad i lightened up yesterday. Unfortunately I still hold a couple of positions but having a lot of cash is nice on a day like this. If we close flat that I will officially be confused.
BB > I totally agree with Buffett...I guess the only issue is a matter of timing. I did the math about a year ago on how much time we would need to get to an equilibrium in housing given over building for several years, then underbuilding and also incorporating population growth. If memory serves me correct it was 2013 when we would arrive at that spot...so I think I was thinking late 2012 would be a good time to start buying up home builders/etc...I'll have to re-check my numbers..
2nd > yeah I think so but let's give it a little time...I always like to see if they can get above 50% of the drop....if they can then people usually start chasing things, thinking that was the bottom.
BAC - P/E 6.46 now, but what happens when the negative cash flow is backed out? They sure do claim to have plenty of cash, they might need it to keep from BK?
by the way, the market tested support at 1,329 (lows from a couple of days ago and actually lows from last week or so)...it seems the bulls are supporting things.
2nd - here's a nice bullish article in case today makes you feel sick: http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/stock-market-historical-highs-historical-market/7/8/2011/id/35619
I see both this guy and that Lee guy from JP Morgan are both calling for huge rallies this year. I think the rally into today makes that look very possible. If the 1999 corollary continues to hold then we will see 1,220-1,230 first (possible on back of negative sentiment surrounding earnings?) before a big rally into the end of the year.
Interesting comment from on today's job stats from a guy over at realmoney.com:
Just so everyone knows, there are gigantic seasonal adjustments. Unadjusted, we added 376,000 jobs on the NFP survey, +840,000 in the private sector. My quick analysis is that this has to do with college graduates not getting as many jobs as in years past. Might also have to do with fewer teens finding seasonal work. We're looking into it. Interesting to note that we also missed big in NFP in June '09 and June '10.
Now I'm not a believer in ignoring seasonals. But it is interesting to question whether the seasonal adjustment is still valid.
PAL - This was a tight pinch, can the MACD/ADX divergence continue or are we looking at a retest of recent lows, etc..? RSI(7) peaked at 79 a few sessions ago.
"HR 2411 stipulates that any contribution made to the Treasury in order to pay down the federal debt IS NOT TAX DEDUCTIBLE."
Here's the perfect option for concerned citizens; just redirect your campaign contributions to the Treasury so they may go towards paying down the debt instead of contributing to the root cause of the problem!
Read through a few of the posts attached to this song. It's amazing how many songs from the late sixties elicit stories of receiving Dear John letters while in 'Nam.
ReplyDeleteCan the DJIA rally +200 points tomorrow? Sure.
ReplyDeleteGBG - Is that a C&H?
ReplyDeleteGPL - Lost a little today along with SLW, my guess is profit takers nervous about the gaps up.
Will FCX break out tomorrow?
WPRT - What, has congress passed a natty transportation tax subsidy bill?
ReplyDeleteTF, yes MITK is a "beast" but wild animals can be utterly unpredictable when not fed enough volume. It took me a month to get out today at a nice profit. It wasn't that easy. I was looking at 7.77 bid at a small # of shares vs 7.80 offered with a lot bigger number of sh and no movement. Suddenly the ask went down a penny with 10k shares offered. I had only a few hundred to sell and undercut the block by a penny which was not even acknowledged by the OTC BB. More stalemate followed but got a fill which was lucky, I thought. It went down then closed at $7.85.
ReplyDeleteTOF- I'm just amazed you know the % diff if you had held! Crazy man.
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking the clock is winding down on a possible Nasdaq listing which should be before earnings. I spent enough time looking into it to believe the listing in a done deal. They qualify, easy.
Savings of $3 trillion to $4 trillion over the next decade. Hmm... Cuts in Social Security as well as Medicare?
ReplyDeleteKnowing government is so desperate to screw me every way they can in the name of rescuing sunk bankers taking home obscene pay makes me even more inclined to hold T's than ever!
WPRT - Cp, talk about a gap to be filled, this one has a double gap in June, one down and one up! Still going.
ReplyDeleteAUMN/ECU - Hmm, this is the old APEX Silver Exploration company that filed Chapter-11 a few days after I'd bought a few shares... Still a minor black mark to the tune of $250 sitting in my portfolio taking up space on the page.
ReplyDelete"Cuts in Social Security as well as Medicare?" Yes, that is what the great compromiser is floating:
ReplyDeletehttp://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/07/chart-of-the-day-the-stealth-social-security-cut-in-debt-talks.php?ref=fpa
"Because spending habits change when living costs increase, some experts think these measures are too generous, and want to change all of the COLAs to a different, smaller measure of inflation: the so-called "chained-CPI."
Federal pensioners, like me, would also be included. I do not get SS and in fact have early money in it which is gone forever.
Pelosi is fighting the Prez and GOP on this today, as well as the venerable AARP.
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/07/pelosi-medicare-and-social-security-cuts-will-compromise-vote-on-debt-limit-bill.php?ref=fpb
BTW, SS and Fed pensions got zero COLA in last two years.
Mark > Yeah they will get Nasdaq listing very soon, then liquidity will pour in. Based on some sillier valuations of mobile payments type companies I wouldn't be surprised to see this up in the $20's within 12 months.
ReplyDeleteWPRT - I was looking at the March gap, doesn't seem to have filled. That won't matter if Congress passes a bill that changes the fundamental aspects (assuming something didn't accomplish that in March).
ReplyDeleteJudging by CLNE and FSYS charts, the gap was a result of a promise to pass some form of natty subsidy, and that has yet to happen.
AARP - "Pelosi is fighting the Prez and GOP on this today, as well as the venerable AARP."
ReplyDeleteYeah, I haven't been able to understand that one yet. The representation on;y supports those who've already begun receiving their benefits I guess, and the new legislation won't affect them?
Gimme my money back, along with my tax money wasted on the Bush family wars.
illini - SS/Medicare/Fed Pension - The sad part of it is some people will roll over and accept whatever Washington decides, without protest.
ReplyDeleteI guess I need to get on the horn...
CP - My interpretation is that the floated idea of a reduced COLA would affect all. Would save billions and force a few oldies from dog food to chicken feed. Or has that gone up a lot too?
ReplyDelete"chicken feed."
ReplyDeleteActually, it has gone up even more, about $0.29 a pound now. Chicken food isn't very good though, my dog won't eat it anymore(he saw chickens eating the stuff, so wanted some.
You can buy a 50lb bag of horse-quality oats for about the same or less, every bit as good as oatmeal from the store but 50lbs is a lot to store. 50lb horse sweet feed with molasses is comparable in price as well.
Hey, maybe we'll go into a deflationary spiral and their plan to cut by "chained CPI" will backfire, LOL?
VE - Not looking as good as I'd imagined...
ReplyDeleteFCX - That's still a pretty low P/E, they say metals bottom first.
ReplyDeleteI just can't get over all these open gaps everywhere, as if they were placed there on purpose.
Spooky
PAL - Downgrade courtesy BAC
ReplyDelete"July 7, 2011 9:31 AM EDT
BofA/Merrill Lynch downgraded shares of North American Palladium (NYSE: PAL) to an Underperform rating from its previous rating of Neutral."
From what I understand, PAL has a very nice palladium deposit in the lower offset zone, not sure if they'll need cash to get to it.
18,000. So much for my thesis about a killer close today.
ReplyDeleteThe way I look at it is profits are still very good even with a bad job market and valuations are cheap.
ReplyDeleteJust imagine what will happen when the job market actually picks up. Profits will increase and analysts will actual start to put growth valuations on some companies and you will get double upside.
From Buffet yesterday, all his companies are doing better except the ones related to home building. Specifically his brick company is producing 40 million bricks per year down from 100 million. Home construction is very labour intensive and will pick up at some time as the US is only building 500K homes per year, far less than the 1.5 million required in a balanced market. He thinks home construction may pick up by the end of the year, but if not then, it will at some point and that will really help drive unemployment down.
wow...jeez this market is insane. I'm really glad i lightened up yesterday. Unfortunately I still hold a couple of positions but having a lot of cash is nice on a day like this. If we close flat that I will officially be confused.
ReplyDeleteYuck.
ReplyDeleteBB > I totally agree with Buffett...I guess the only issue is a matter of timing. I did the math about a year ago on how much time we would need to get to an equilibrium in housing given over building for several years, then underbuilding and also incorporating population growth. If memory serves me correct it was 2013 when we would arrive at that spot...so I think I was thinking late 2012 would be a good time to start buying up home builders/etc...I'll have to re-check my numbers..
ReplyDeleteSome remarks from Steve Grasso...
ReplyDeleteultimately $spx has to hold 1325, watch the 1343 level as well if we can rally back up
i am sensing anger, frustration in the tweets , just look at your portfolio and ur levels and RELAX
gotta have your exit levels but i am staying long , for me 1270-75 holds,, that i can stomach if not i adjust
its just terrible how we still put so much credence in their forecasts ,, they make fun at technicals , as if they know
if market holds here it would really show us something
http://twitter.com/#!/GrassoSteve
Kyle- That's true. If it holds here, then payrolls will have effectively acted as yet another convenient excuse to throw J6P off the train.
ReplyDeleteIgor- I was just commenting on the late day sell off in SLW yesterday. Seemed a little extreme to me.
ReplyDeleteYesterday I thought CREE was finally getting off the mat. NOT!
ReplyDeleteWow the only stock I have a big position in is up nicely: NLS
ReplyDeleteWow this market is still strong.
ReplyDeleteIt doesn't feel 'bearish' out there.
ReplyDeleteAAPL. Buy buy buy!!!
ReplyDeleteIt feels 'bullish.'
ReplyDeleteAlmost as if they're still chasing?
ReplyDelete2nd > yeah I think so but let's give it a little time...I always like to see if they can get above 50% of the drop....if they can then people usually start chasing things, thinking that was the bottom.
ReplyDeleteJeez > NLS is up 5% and running...crazy.
NLS now above 200 DMA.
ReplyDeleteExtra lashes for BEXP?
ReplyDeleteSold 1/4 of my NLS at $2.2 which just tanked the stock...
ReplyDeleteAny chance the prez mentions mobile deposit?
ReplyDeleteAlright, now it feels bearish ;)
ReplyDeleteBEXP - Come to me baby! Puuulllleeessseeee!
ReplyDeleteGold to $1600+ by Labor Day, I'm sticking to it...
ReplyDeleteAlright...sold out of my NLS...completely flat everything. 100% cash...luckily account at all time highs.
ReplyDeleteSold my OIH too at a loss...
ReplyDeleteI'm ready to take a long break from trading/investing.
CP > GLD clearly is the strongest thing out there (aside from MITK)
ReplyDeleteBeing ready to take a long break and actually taking one are two different things. I envy David.
ReplyDeleteBAC - P/E 6.46 now, but what happens when the negative cash flow is backed out? They sure do claim to have plenty of cash, they might need it to keep from BK?
ReplyDeleteTOF- Tell me about it.
ReplyDeleteCP- Where are you looking for BEXP?
ReplyDeleteSo guys I have some exciting news to share with you guys...and something that 2nd Predicted in his 2011 predictions:
ReplyDeleteWe're having a baby! My wife is due in December.
Anyone follow LOCM?
ReplyDeleteTOF- Holly cow!!! That didn't take long! Congrats, you'll love it man, and you'll be a great dad!
ReplyDeleteCrude - Wow, wasn't yesterday's inventory report bullish?
ReplyDeleteBEXP - Mark, I'll definitely be a buyer on a retest of $25 for sure, and I may settle for $27.70
ReplyDeleteProbably worst case is 50SMA retest (~$28.80)?
Or it doesn't come back to me, sure wish I'd bought the $25 retest.
TOF - Congrats, time sure flys!
ReplyDeleteJJG - Hmm, still moving off the bottom trendline?
ReplyDeleteThanks guys...it's crazy. We obviously weren't planning on having one this soon but we're still psyched.
ReplyDeleteI don't exactly feel ready for it yet but I'm getting mentally prepared for it all. How did you guys prepare for your 1st?
Silver testing 50SMA, is there sufficient momentum to break on through?
ReplyDeleteUgly jobs report, can the bulls fill the gap? Hopefully....
ReplyDeleteby the way, the market tested support at 1,329 (lows from a couple of days ago and actually lows from last week or so)...it seems the bulls are supporting things.
ReplyDelete2nd - here's a nice bullish article in case today makes you feel sick:
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/stock-market-historical-highs-historical-market/7/8/2011/id/35619
I see both this guy and that Lee guy from JP Morgan are both calling for huge rallies this year. I think the rally into today makes that look very possible. If the 1999 corollary continues to hold then we will see 1,220-1,230 first (possible on back of negative sentiment surrounding earnings?) before a big rally into the end of the year.
TVIX - Yesterday's gap up was the signal?
ReplyDeleteTVIX - That is, the S&P gap up, which HAD to fill.
ReplyDeleteTLT - Was green yesterday, another signal?
Steel index retested weekly low and is now back above. The RSI(7) peaked July 1st @ 78.43 though, and fell to 65 on the 6th.
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$djusst&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736
Interesting comment from on today's job stats from a guy over at realmoney.com:
ReplyDeleteJust so everyone knows, there are gigantic seasonal adjustments. Unadjusted, we added 376,000 jobs on the NFP survey, +840,000 in the private sector. My quick analysis is that this has to do with college graduates not getting as many jobs as in years past. Might also have to do with fewer teens finding seasonal work. We're looking into it. Interesting to note that we also missed big in NFP in June '09 and June '10.
Now I'm not a believer in ignoring seasonals. But it is interesting to question whether the seasonal adjustment is still valid.
PAL - This was a tight pinch, can the MACD/ADX divergence continue or are we looking at a retest of recent lows, etc..? RSI(7) peaked at 79 a few sessions ago.
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=pal&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736
tof- To be honest, what did we expect? It's gone straight up for a week. Now it's pulling back. Fair enough.
ReplyDelete2nd - BB has a good point...WTH knows how these numbers have been 'cooked'??? And with all the prior month revisions...WTF...just random numbers
ReplyDelete2nd -- You Remember this one...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.satriani.com/discography/Surfing_With_The_Alien/
Reminds me of this trading environment...
Flying in a Blue Dream was also good...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AOsgv_X_cV8
Nice list of insider trading I found:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.finviz.com/insidertrading.ashx?tc=7
Looks like 4 buys last week versus a ton of sells...
Boyz...
ReplyDeleteGoog - The co-founder sold out this week to the tune of $44 million.
ReplyDeleteBAC getting hit here on volume.
ReplyDeleteGoog?
ReplyDeleteXCO?
ReplyDeleteGOOG/Google - The big insider Brin Sergey cashed out all his stock. Now has no shares.
ReplyDeleteIllini- Something must be screwy there. Looks like he sold the same 83K shares about 10 times.
ReplyDeleteBPAX...Just trying to flush RB out...
ReplyDeleteMark Warner - "Check your party hats and step up!"
ReplyDeleteUnder the circumstances, I consider today a victory for the bulls.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete"HR 2411 stipulates that any contribution made to the Treasury in order to pay down the federal debt IS NOT TAX DEDUCTIBLE."
ReplyDeleteHere's the perfect option for concerned citizens; just redirect your campaign contributions to the Treasury so they may go towards paying down the debt instead of contributing to the root cause of the problem!