Wednesday, July 13, 2011

07/13/11 The future's uncertain, and the end is always near



I woke up this evening and I got myself a jailhouse beer. What else can one do in here?

Manzarek and Krieger will be at the Regency on Sutter and Van Ness in August.

74 comments:

  1. Nothing like drugs and alcohol to smooth out the edges of a sell-off.

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  2. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/cantor-says-obama-walked-out-of-meeting-2011-07-13

    Way to go, bro. We don't back down from fights in here.

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  3. Is that instinct or alcohol talking? I'm not sure.

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  4. Hope it's instinct. I've got the booze covered.

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  5. The Cuervo Gold, The Fine Columbian, Make the Market a Wonderful Thing. Say it again!
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipc9pL27krs

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  6. Great timing RB. I just promised Kendra I'd watch today's match with her on replay. Hold the Cuervo till Friday!

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  7. Kyle - That chart of SPX is awesome and I never noticed the zig-zag feature before. I have seen something similar called Roofs and Valleys(?). What is the significance of the 25%. I tried 20% and there was a difference.

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  8. The irony of it all is during a selloff it would seem Bernanke might have the wind in his sails while offloading his treasury paper onto the scared minions.

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  9. I still get the impression the Reps only goal has been to keep tax cuts and loopholes for the wealthy.

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  10. Not their only goal but perhaps primary. Others are weakening regulations of all kind with a special emphasis on finance and environment. At another level there is the attempt to keep condoms out of the hands of third world people including Africans.

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  11. BEXP - Michael Filloon has a lot to say about the Bakken Shale plays:

    "My largest holding is Brigham (BEXP). I began purchasing it on May 4th of this year. For those who read my articles, you already know why I like Brigham. Analysts estimate Brigham will grow on average 40.8% per year for the next five years."

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/278522-bakken-oil-service-and-refining-plays-for-the-second-half-of-2011?source=yahoo

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  12. In case you don't think it's all or mostly rotten in DC, read this:

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/07/attempts-to-submarine-fcic-report-backfiring/

    FCIC = Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission.

    The previous blog has the complete report. Jail anyone?

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  13. BEXP - Another nice article/interview:

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/278234-bud-brigham-of-brigham-exploration-still-early-innings?source=yahoo

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  14. BEXP - Yeah, I need to get back in on that one. There's a gap up on June 28th, from 28.07 to 28.22

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  15. IMAX - This could be a decent entry point about here...

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  16. Rotten DC? I grew up inside the beltway, my neighbors were senators, congressman and World Bankers.

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  17. CP I have been following the 3d space. They trade weird. I don't really follow movies, but I think it gets sold down real hard when a 3d movie tanks and pops when there is a hit. i believe there has been some bad 3d movies. The thrill is gone. Someone needs to make a greatly conceived movie in 3d to get a broadbased crowd and bring back some momentum. I am thinking of going long RLD with a stop under $20. What are the coming attractions?

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  18. illini - I just used 25% so as to not have so many 'zig-zags' on the chart and just capture the really major moves. It's a sensitivity parameter related the the % change in the price before it draws another line, if I understand correctly...

    http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:zigzag

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  19. I will most likely be closing my shorts today...given the irony of the markets we will probably sell off on the good econ reports / earnings from JPM, which I will use to close everything. I believe we get at least a throwback rally to the 1,340 level soon.

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  20. http://imarketnews.com/?q=node/33725 keep an eye on cds spreads

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  21. RB - 3D is dead, according to the media, but I don't think that's my attraction to IMAX. More like the migration to digital technology is gonna slash their costs and their going global.

    We'll see, I'm in no hurry, there are gaps down that need closing.

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  22. Strange. There's some ETN's showing up for MITK I've never seen before.

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  23. IMAX - Well, one of those gaps just filled, there's one more open at 35.71 to 35.9

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  24. JPM is holding in there. We might be OK today.

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  25. SVM - 11.45 to 11.38 gap closed, there can't be much more gas remaining in the tank unless silver keeps on truckin'...

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  26. Alright well I sold out of my shorts...at small losses...oh well such is life.

    SMH is looking solid here actually...

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  27. PM's - Hmm, are they gonna top out here for a little pullback? I have no idea for sure, but I hope to reload SVM around $9.22

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  28. STEC- What a POS. About to get stopped out AGAIN!

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  29. wow everyone is getting played here....

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  30. Long SMH at $32.98 here, long OIH at $150.48. I like the chart patterns in both.

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  31. Stops below today's lows.

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  32. GL guys. Still long the stinker STEC.

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  33. out of everything...getting played like a fiddle. we're prob going to 1,295 and then bouncing higher.

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  34. General public is running away from equities:

    http://seekingalpha.com/news-article/1425197-investors-rush-out-of-stock-mutual-funds-in-june

    Could be a bullish sign.

    TF - I like your call on SMH. I think it is oversold. I picked up some MCHP stock on lower guidance and looks to be oversold after the announcement

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  35. Back in OIH...149.54

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  36. SMH - Yep, those guys have their very own printing presses to counteract Ben's Heidelberg presses. The world grinds to a screeching halt without electronics, they'll be just fine.

    Another ting to consider is these guys have been through enough of these cycles and have well developed strategies now. Typically, these tough times are when they begin loading up on capital equipment and implementing device shrinks in an attempt to get the jump on their competition for when the tide turns.

    Yep, they're busy getting their timing right. Deep pockets, great technology plans and the ability to successfully implement will determine the outcome.

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  37. BAC - Not that far from a $9 handle really, I bet we don't see one today though... Unfortunately, they'll hang onto their bag and drag us all deep into the quicksand before dumping at the bottom.

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  38. Back into SMH at $32.39

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  39. SVM - Market maker sweeping stops?

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  40. wow what a bounce.

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  41. I can't recall the last time we had price swings like this. Wild.

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  42. I also went long USO for a short term swing trade at $37.34.

    Pissed I got sucked out of my shorts this morning but in a way I'm glad I did. This market is trading very technically right now. The low just now was exactly at the overnight low so it was an obvious place to bounce. Look at SMH....lows at the same lows that were supported 3 times over past 6 months...almost to the penny.

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  43. SMH - A few sessions ago, the RSI(7) peaked into the 70's and as of yesterday's close was back to 33. I bet with today's weakness it dropped under 30.

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  44. PM's - Wasn't that many sessions ago, there were plenty of calls for sub $20 silver, LOL.

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  45. ALU? Know it was down graded a few days ago.

    TOF- CTCT is back to the low's. Still like this one?

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  46. MITK- Besides looking weak as hell, today's action sure Fed up the chart.

    It's been interesting, but really, after Friday's big move it's gone nowhere.

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  47. CLNE- Well that didn't take long to fill one gap. Crazy.

    I'm kinda getting tired if this market.

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  48. 2nd- 30yr rates are back to 4.5%.

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  49. Out SCO. 100% cash and liking it.

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  50. clne cannot be trusted. That pig gets knocked down anytime momentum builds.

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  51. Same as it ever was, rinse and repeat:

    "Paulson and Bernanke asked Congress to spend hundreds of billions to save the banks.

    John Boehner: We clearly have an unprecedented crisis in our financial system.

    GOP House Minority Leader John Boehner...

    Boehner: On behalf of the American people our job is to put our partisan differences aside and to work together to help solve this crisis.

    The next day, according to personal financial disclosures, Boehner cashed out of a fund designed to profit from inflation. Since he sold, it's lost more than half its value."

    http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2009/09/17/pm-inside-dope/

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  52. TLT? Where's that money going today?

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  53. CLNE - Looks as though Congress is putting their short positions on today.

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  54. CP- Or Pelosi is selling her shares :)

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  55. Team> Google Earnings. WTF you haven't even mentioned your ole FAV. Lot's of optimism it is going to beat big time! Their new social system deal has a nice buzz making the Facebook moat a mile wide, but only an inch deep.

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  56. TLT - We find out tomorrow where the money's going. Is Timmy getting corn-holed while peddling paper today?

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  57. 'Their new social system deal has a nice buzz making the Facebook moat a mile wide, but only an inch deep.'

    Not bad!

    I was thinking of throwing a few chips on GOOG, but said F it.

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  58. CLNE, well she did get down graded to OUTPERFORM today. You know of fickle she is.

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  59. Yeah, I'm tired of this market too. PM jr's getting their BLM mining permits while GMO still has nothing.

    Do ya think maybe they're motivated towards flooding the market with PM's and to hell with industrial metals?

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  60. Just bet against anything that makes sense and you'll be on the right side of the trade.

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  61. MITK- Going to the Nasdaq sure didn't help the spread much. .20 at the close.

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  62. GOG beats by a Fing dollar????

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  63. damn lots of comments here...MITK action was just fine by me no? shit the stock is at $8.50 now man. up 40% in like a few weeks and up 60% since we started following it / investing in it

    CTCT: hell yeah i love this one. i was actually just looking at this bad boy and trying to figure out why it's trading the way it is. I was thinking more and more about why would this stock be down so much and the only thing I can think of is that the market is thinking that all of this social media stuff (Twitter / FB) is going to impact the long term prospects of the company - i.e., maybe it will impact the way people communicate to their customers. I'm on the fence about the long term implications of this but I honestly don't see how this would hurt them. If anything I think incorporating email campaigns into Twittter / FB is going to be part of every companies marketing plans.

    RB: I'm sure GOOG will beat...stock trading is bullish in my mind

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  64. Mark:

    Check out CTCT's revenue growth over the past 5 years:
    http://financials.morningstar.com/income-statement/is.html?t=CTCT&region=USA&culture=en-US

    2006: $28 Million
    2010: $175 Million

    Free Cash Flow:
    2006: $(4) Million
    2007: $(1) Million
    2008: $1 Million
    2009: $5 Million
    2010: $10 Million

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  65. MRO - Bought at $31.31 today using all the spare cash in one account. Now only 7% cash overall and more heavy into oil. I like MRO since they spun off the refining and marketing biz. Conoco announced they will do same, leaving only CVX and XOM as domestic integrated oils. It's a dinosaur biz model whose time has passed. Nobody pays attention to the brand of gasoline anymore and full service gas stations are ancient history. Liking MRO also because they are into the Eagle Ford shale oil in South Texas big time now, albeit at a hefty price.

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  66. July 7th, the S&P RSI(7) peaked above 80 and moved through 70 the next day.

    It hasn't moved below 30 yet as far as I can confirm, will have to wait for updated result.

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  67. CP- I don't know buddy. Just can't really get a feel for anything right now. I've barley traded for 2 months now.

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