I have to say, I don't ----ing get it. Are we really selling off b/c of politicians playing the same games we learned in K-12? If I had the opportunity to spend an hour with each individual separately at the bar, I'm confident I could peg each one of them. There is no doubt in my mind there's not a single true genius in the bunch. Just the same old same old. Nothing to see here. Nothing to worry about. The market will continue up.
2nd - It seems to be that good ol' beltway charm, can't say for sure. A 200+ gap up tomorrow wouldn't surprise me, a gap that would close the first few days next week? We'll the S&P hasn't moved into oversold territory yet, so buying before that happens doesn't fit my plan.
Mark, I thought you got a smokin' deal on the BEXP? I still hope to join that party myself...
Maybe we will both get lucky soon. I kinda expect a ST bottom to be near hear or SPX 1295ish.
2nd- I don't know man. I'm kinda buying into the..'We better get something real done now' camp, or CB will be right and my family moves into your house in a matter of months.
BEXP and a few others in the Bakken and/or Eagle Ford shales are long range rifles or cannons ready to go off and become smoking guns. Smaller companies are the rifles...on target they produce with little ammo. Larger ones are the cannons which will also produce but with more ammo/$. Both will get the prize...oil and liquids. Gas can wait until it is compressed and the market wants it. Patience, T.Boone.
HK - I never thought it was much of a bargain. The magic words seem to be "shale" and "acreage". Lots of other small companies out there in USA. Perhaps another magic word is $USD, worth less nowadays.
I'm going to have major difficulty buying any story of a banking recovery in the near future:
Realtytrack, July 14:
"It would be nice to report that foreclosure activity is dropping as a result of improvements in the economy or the housing market," said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. "Unfortunately, with unemployment rates inching back up, consumer confidence weak and home sales and prices continuing to languish, this doesn't appear to be the case.
"Processing and procedural delays are pushing foreclosures further and further out - we estimate that as many as 1 million foreclosure actions that should have taken place in 2011 will now happen in 2012, or perhaps even later. This casts an ominous shadow over the housing market, where recovery is unlikely to happen until the current and forthcoming inventory of distressed properties can be whittled down to a manageable number."
I have had a lot of computers problems going on into late June and decided to bite the bullet and get a new one. I bought this:
ULTRA-ZR1 EZ TRADING COMPUTER Price: $2199 ULTRA-ZR1 EZ TRADING COMPUTER
*Compare to Falcon F-37 Processor: Intel Core i7-2600K @ 4.7 GHz with Turbo Boost - 100% Faster than i7-950 - includes High Performance Liquid Processor Cooling Motherboard: ASUS SABERTOOTH P67 - Certified Military Grade - 5 Year Motherboard Warranty (click here for more info) + additional network card = 2 Internet Ports RAM: 16 GB DDR3 RAM Hard Drive 1: 128 GB SATA III Solid State Drive Hard Drive 2: 1 Terabyte SATA III Data Drive Digital Video: 4 - 12 Monitor Support | Need Monitors? click here Power Supply: Thermaltake with 5 YEAR WARRANTY Warranty: 3 Year Warranty & Lifetime Tech Support click here Price: $2199- 4 Monitor Support | $2399– 8 Monitor Support
I also bought a Samsung 27" monitor P2770FH and liked it so much bought a second one. I would run to costco and buy if anyone here is i the market it is 1ms and 70000:1 contrast and is equivalent to 4 monitors. I plan to only run trding software on it to minimize the crap that happens to computers over time.
I'm still very busy and will most likely stay that way for some time with very little blogging. Actually, I enjoy the solitude of lonewolf trading.
Part of the reason I've been so cautious and even bearish lately is because unemployment rates have been rising the past few months, which typically doesn't happen in a growing economy. And when you look at the charts of banks you see confirmation of this. And when you add in a few other econ reports that show clear slowing down and then multiple government debt issues across the world, it gives cause for pause. I think this is having an impact on sentiment, which has an impact on the prices people pay for stocks. Having said that, I do expect a big very short rally and then a sell off.
nevermind on that one...closed out the BGZ position...I need to remember to cover fear and short greed on the short side...Greed isn't in the market right now...
FCX - Bumping up against the upper trendline, seriously how could there be a breakout? Looks like a short to me, especially if the S&P were north of 1400.
Being overly bearish hasn't been a winning strategy the past two years, but a stopped clock is right at least once day, often twice.
which camp is harder to be in right now: bulls or bears? I'd argue the bears given the constant ramp jobs they have been throwing at them for several years now...that's yet another reason why we go lower.
ILLI, Great timing on your trades. I was worried because I thought oil was going to go down, and still think, but it doesn't matter if companies are going to pay 60% premium for prairie.
Being a bear is brutal. Every time everything is lined up Tech and fundamentally for a short. some govt agency pulls a rabbit out of the hat and market participants are impressed and start buying.
JPM almost below pre-earnings C below pre-earnings YUM below pre-earnings AA below pre-earnings MAR crushed on earnings NVLS crushed on earnings... GOOG up big
Do you guys follow any others that have done well trading wise after earnings?
IYT now firmly below the 50% retracement level on the recent up move...and people have pointed to it as a leader and confirmation of a continuing rally...I think odds favor that this market heads much lower.
a new activity called GOING OUTSIDE. Introducing GOING OUTSIDE, the astounding multipurpose activity platform that will revolutionize the way you spend your time. GOING OUTSIDE is not a game or a program, not a device or an app, not a protocol or an operating system. Instead, it’s a comprehensive experiential mode that lets you perceive and do things firsthand. GOING OUTSIDE: 1. Supports real-time experience through seamless mind-body interface. By GOING OUTSIDE, you’ll rediscover the joy and satisfaction of actually doing something. 2. Is completely hands-free. No keyboards, mice, controllers, touch pads, or joysticks. 3. Delivers authentic 3-D, real-motion video, with no lag time or artifacts. 4. Delivers “head-free” surround sound. No headphones, earbuds, speakers, or sound-bar arrays required—and yet, amazingly, you hear everything. 6. Enables complete interactivity with inanimate objects, animals, and Nature. 11. Provides access to everything not in your home, dorm room, or cubicle. Millions of people have already tried GOING OUTSIDE. Many of “your” friends may even be GOING OUTSIDE right now! Why not join them and see what happens?
on the flip side, 1302 on ES has been quite a support level...let's see if it holds again...it has been tested 6 or 7 times in the past 4 days and bounced right off it. i would take it as bullish if it tests again and cant break it.
Don't worry if you're long, the water rights, if approved (I haven't read the press release yet), will place the ball squarely in the BLM's court to release the DEIS (Draft Environmental Impact Statement) and following the review and public comment period, the ROD (Record Of Decision) ETA end of year that's all we need to begin construction.
I seriously doubt there's any case for a lower share price now, as this is one of the best(in terms of purity of concentration / size of deposit) mineable discoveries of Molybdenum and some of the product is already spoken for.
Unless there's something going on in Mongolia I'm not privy too.
GMO - I say hang onto it at least past $15, b/c BLM will approve the mine just as they have all the others in Nevada. Might take till end of year to reach $10+?
RB - Molybdenum isn't a rare earth, it's not used for making neodymium magnets, it's used along with nickle and/or in lieu of nickel to make strong and corrosive resistant steel, like stainless. It's used as a catalyst in refineries to crack hydrocarbon bonds (an application where it's recycled), and one of the layers in solar panels, (the thin-film PVD (physical vapor deposition) application), and many other miscellaneous uses, like a motor oil additive. Molybdenum's physical properties remind me a lot of graphite.
CP I know what MOLY is. I went to JR high in Tonopah, Nevada.Until now the MOLY capital of the US. It's just many traders put it in that group. Water rights are everything in Nevada. There is no environment to impact.
Moly is one of the primary a modern car weighs less and is more durable then a vehicle built before the 90's, when they began using better quality lighter, thinner yet stronger and corrosive resistant steel. These steels are tougher than the mild cold-rolled steel, and more difficult to work.
Watch the steelers for clues. MT and PKX are GMO investors, along with Hanlong.
I did do well today with PXD,GEOI,BEXP and even the new MRO. It was lucky that I bought earlier this week but I am still looking forward to better times when the oil shales start producing big time. Note: HK is mostly shale gas and look at the premium they went for.
Wow...what a spike down in the VIX....with this and the 1,302 level never getting broken, it tells me we should be short term buyers on the market. Therefore, I closed my SPY short after hours.
Guys - If Uncle Warren is right and we get a rebound in housing within the next next, wouldn't financials be the best thing to own?
And given the just awful sentiment surrounding banks and the terrible trading in these stocks, wouldn't now be an incredible time to buy them for the long term?
Also, if rates are going to raise because of this or if say the US debt gets downgraded, wouldn't that benefit banks?
Well, if we're counting on real estate, I think we're in trouble for a while longer.
Home builders might be able to tighten their belts enough to keep from losing their asses, not understanding that particular business very well, I don't have a take on that...
I do need to make some decisions though, 75% cash here...
Banks - I don't quite get how higher rates would help banks, wouldn't their borrowing costs increase and spread maybe shrink? Can Bernanke force bank lending by paying negative interest on their reserves and allowing them to carry lower levels of reserves? Perhaps that might help housing?
Banks/Home Builders/Real Estate - I do not see much hope there until wages and employment pick up. Good luck with that. Even some Fed members say unemployment is now "structural". Yet housing is a linchpin of the economy.
Commercial Real Estate such as shopping centers is still in a bad way. Lots of vacancies. Overbuilt. Many turnovers. Over here in Peoria, IL the most risky biz prop is opening a restaurant, it seems. Many fold within 3 years.
Yep, I think Ben will still try inflating away the housing crash, so if we're lucky at some point home prices will stop going down once inventory rebalances. By that time, prices of everything else could be quite high.
Maybe they'll settle on some compromise, but I'm really shocked they didn't work on the root cause of real estate default (gainful employment) as a top priority.
The silver lining is, there are more millionaires in my state now than ever before.
Cp if rates rise theoretically then banks would make a larger profit on the spread...low fed funds rates are actually hurting them more from what I have read..
TOF - If a bank can borrow from the FED at zero and loan at 4%, the spread would be 4%, right?
Higher rates make home ownership more expensive, which drives prices down, right?
Higher rates tend to slow an economy, and make the currency stronger, right? A stronger dollar would tend to make US goods and services more expensive to overseas customers, less competitive globally, fewer jobs?
Too few people chasing too many goods(over capacity) puts downward pressure on prices, which may be happening due to automated manufacturing, or low wage labor in developing countries? Note that wages in developing countries are moving up while wages in developed countries is being pushed down, the financial crisis seems to have reversed the pendulum.
I don't know how higher rates translates to higher profits for banks unless you're saying they can still borrow at zero and increase their spread. It's all about spread, right? They can currently borrow at zero and invest in developing country debt at higher rates and less risk than US debt, perhaps? Ben keeps rates on US debt low b/c he has to, else the interest eats into the measly Treasury revenue?
I'd like to hear coherent thought, not "I heard", ie: what are the actual mechanisms and how do they function, in theory?
Cp - my thinking is pretty basic regarding housing...if rates rise I think tha motivates ppl to buy before rates move up in a meaningful way. Also generally speaking a country with moderately high rates correlates with a stronger economy. So perhaps its a chicken and egg thing..ie we need a stronger econ b4 we get higher rates. In this environment banks would lend more and make more of the spread than in the current environment due in large part bc of more loan volume...
Here's a related housing article by gilbert: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/beginning-of-the-end-of-the-entire-crisis-2011-07-15?link=MW_home_latest_news
Human nature. Karma.
ReplyDeleteIn my day job, I've had the pleasure of watching things 'come around' for someone who's sent plenty of crap 'going around.'
On the other hand, I'm dealing with a lot of things 'going around' in the side gig.
In my experience, however, the Golden Rule holds.
I have to say, I don't ----ing get it. Are we really selling off b/c of politicians playing the same games we learned in K-12? If I had the opportunity to spend an hour with each individual separately at the bar, I'm confident I could peg each one of them. There is no doubt in my mind there's not a single true genius in the bunch. Just the same old same old. Nothing to see here. Nothing to worry about. The market will continue up.
ReplyDeleteIn fact, now that no one's looking, we should gap up +200 on Friday.
ReplyDelete2nd - It seems to be that good ol' beltway charm, can't say for sure. A 200+ gap up tomorrow wouldn't surprise me, a gap that would close the first few days next week? We'll the S&P hasn't moved into oversold territory yet, so buying before that happens doesn't fit my plan.
ReplyDeleteMark, I thought you got a smokin' deal on the BEXP? I still hope to join that party myself...
PMI - Earnings Aug 4th...
ReplyDeleteCP- No position on BEXP. Was a little to greedy.
ReplyDeleteMaybe we will both get lucky soon. I kinda expect a ST bottom to be near hear or SPX 1295ish.
2nd- I don't know man. I'm kinda buying into the..'We better get something real done now' camp, or CB will be right and my family moves into your house in a matter of months.
BEXP and a few others in the Bakken and/or Eagle Ford shales are long range rifles or cannons ready to go off and become smoking guns. Smaller companies are the rifles...on target they produce with little ammo. Larger ones are the cannons which will also produce but with more ammo/$. Both will get the prize...oil and liquids. Gas can wait until it is compressed and the market wants it. Patience, T.Boone.
ReplyDeleteHK - BHP to acquire for 62% premium. Shale and it's mostly gas. Others to follow?
ReplyDeleteHK - I never thought it was much of a bargain. The magic words seem to be "shale" and "acreage". Lots of other small companies out there in USA. Perhaps another magic word is $USD, worth less nowadays.
ReplyDeletePerhaps the core issue facing U.S. growth prospects is a housing market on the verge of being totally sucked into a negative feedback loop?
ReplyDeleteI'm going to have major difficulty buying any story of a banking recovery in the near future:
ReplyDeleteRealtytrack, July 14:
"It would be nice to report that foreclosure activity is dropping as a result of improvements in the economy or the housing market," said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. "Unfortunately, with unemployment rates inching back up, consumer confidence weak and home sales and prices continuing to languish, this doesn't appear to be the case.
"Processing and procedural delays are pushing foreclosures further and further out - we estimate that as many as 1 million foreclosure actions that should have taken place in 2011 will now happen in 2012, or perhaps even later. This casts an ominous shadow over the housing market, where recovery is unlikely to happen until the current and forthcoming inventory of distressed properties can be whittled down to a manageable number."
Bay area - So as CSCO lays off 10,000 employees, where is the majority of concentration and how is that likely to affect housing in the bay area?
ReplyDeleteGLW - Kinda looks like a low risk entry nearing?
ReplyDeleteBAC - Chart is repinching, note that when the green +DI dips under 10, buyers seems to show up:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=bac&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736
TTM - It's been a decent rally, I'd have to cut it lose.
ReplyDeleteI have had a lot of computers problems going on into late June and decided to bite the bullet and get a new one. I bought this:
ReplyDeleteULTRA-ZR1 EZ TRADING COMPUTER Price: $2199
ULTRA-ZR1 EZ TRADING COMPUTER
*Compare to Falcon F-37
Processor: Intel Core i7-2600K @ 4.7 GHz with Turbo Boost - 100% Faster than i7-950 - includes High Performance Liquid Processor Cooling
Motherboard: ASUS SABERTOOTH P67 - Certified Military Grade - 5 Year Motherboard Warranty (click here for more info) + additional network card = 2 Internet Ports
RAM: 16 GB DDR3 RAM
Hard Drive 1: 128 GB SATA III Solid State Drive
Hard Drive 2: 1 Terabyte SATA III Data Drive
Digital Video: 4 - 12 Monitor Support | Need Monitors? click here
Power Supply: Thermaltake with 5 YEAR WARRANTY
Warranty: 3 Year Warranty & Lifetime Tech Support click here
Price: $2199- 4 Monitor Support | $2399– 8 Monitor Support
I also bought a Samsung 27" monitor P2770FH and liked it so much bought a second one. I would run to costco and buy if anyone here is i the market it is 1ms and 70000:1 contrast and is equivalent to 4 monitors. I plan to only run trding software on it to minimize the crap that happens to computers over time.
I'm still very busy and will most likely stay that way for some time with very little blogging. Actually, I enjoy the solitude of lonewolf trading.
Here is an interesting article with some macro issues to mull on.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.blackstone.com/cps/rde/xchg/bxcom/hs/firm_commentary_6873.htm
Part of the reason I've been so cautious and even bearish lately is because unemployment rates have been rising the past few months, which typically doesn't happen in a growing economy. And when you look at the charts of banks you see confirmation of this. And when you add in a few other econ reports that show clear slowing down and then multiple government debt issues across the world, it gives cause for pause. I think this is having an impact on sentiment, which has an impact on the prices people pay for stocks. Having said that, I do expect a big very short rally and then a sell off.
ReplyDeleteMan, the pin action off of HK is unreal. Probably took away any chance to re-enter BEXP for a LONG time.
ReplyDeleteYeah, isn't it great.
ReplyDeleteIt's all about shale.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/15/us-shalecompanies-shares-idUSTRE76E2OD20110715?feedType=RSS&feedName=GCA-GreenBusiness&rpc=43
Little swing trade. 400 SSO @ 52.40.
ReplyDeleteSold my USO at $38.1 that I bought yesterday at $37.39
ReplyDelete"cause for pause."
ReplyDeleteI'm waiting for prices to come to me and if they don't, then I'll pick a top and short the rally.
Back in my BGZ trade and sold my SMH and OIH trades from yesterday.
ReplyDeletePoke out eyes time. Guess nothing until after Obama.
ReplyDeleteone fly in the bear ointment: copper...looks quite strong.
ReplyDeleteCan't take it anymore. At the close.
ReplyDeletenevermind on that one...closed out the BGZ position...I need to remember to cover fear and short greed on the short side...Greed isn't in the market right now...
ReplyDeleteEarnings season keeping this market from retesting the 200SMA? I'd feel more comfortable about upside potential if it were crawling up the 200SMA...
ReplyDeleteBack in the BGZ at $34.8
ReplyDeleteIWM confirming false breakout?
ReplyDeletetook large short position in SPY at $131.31...Not buying this bounce. IYT confirming downside bias in my mind.
ReplyDeleteFCX - Bumping up against the upper trendline, seriously how could there be a breakout? Looks like a short to me, especially if the S&P were north of 1400.
ReplyDeleteBeing overly bearish hasn't been a winning strategy the past two years, but a stopped clock is right at least once day, often twice.
Now 100% short SPY at $131.55
ReplyDeleteGE - Red, closing in on lower trendline of pennant formation after having failed to break through upper trendline.
ReplyDeletewhich camp is harder to be in right now: bulls or bears? I'd argue the bears given the constant ramp jobs they have been throwing at them for several years now...that's yet another reason why we go lower.
ReplyDeleteILLI, Great timing on your trades. I was worried because I thought oil was going to go down, and still think, but it doesn't matter if companies are going to pay 60% premium for prairie.
ReplyDeleteBeing a bear is brutal. Every time everything is lined up Tech and fundamentally for a short. some govt agency pulls a rabbit out of the hat and market participants are impressed and start buying.
ReplyDeleteJPM almost below pre-earnings
ReplyDeleteC below pre-earnings
YUM below pre-earnings
AA below pre-earnings
MAR crushed on earnings
NVLS crushed on earnings...
GOOG up big
Do you guys follow any others that have done well trading wise after earnings?
T3d Do you have two 27 in monitors hooked to your computer. One for the Rolling Stones. One for the market.
ReplyDeleteGMO HALTED PENDING NEWS.
ReplyDeleteGMO- Water rights approved.
ReplyDeleteGMO reaction will be interesting. Mark you get your news how?
ReplyDeleteGMO in @ 4.35.
ReplyDeleteGMO seem to be ignoring it. Long 4.43
ReplyDeletebar the doors...bac sub $10
ReplyDeleteapparently options traders are expecting a 4.6 pt swing in the VIX (either way) by next wednesday...according to optionmonster.
ReplyDeleteRB- Just through Schwab. It's OK.
ReplyDeleteReally surprised by the reaction. A few % points on such a key issue?
CP- What's your take?
IYT now firmly below the 50% retracement level on the recent up move...and people have pointed to it as a leader and confirmation of a continuing rally...I think odds favor that this market heads much lower.
ReplyDeleteha classic...i just saw this:
ReplyDeletea new activity called GOING OUTSIDE. Introducing GOING OUTSIDE, the astounding multipurpose activity platform that will revolutionize the way you spend your time. GOING OUTSIDE is not a game or a program, not a device or an app, not a protocol or an operating system. Instead, it’s a comprehensive experiential mode that lets you perceive and do things firsthand. GOING OUTSIDE: 1. Supports real-time experience through seamless mind-body interface. By GOING OUTSIDE, you’ll rediscover the joy and satisfaction of actually doing something. 2. Is completely hands-free. No keyboards, mice, controllers, touch pads, or joysticks. 3. Delivers authentic 3-D, real-motion video, with no lag time or artifacts. 4. Delivers “head-free” surround sound. No headphones, earbuds, speakers, or sound-bar arrays required—and yet, amazingly, you hear everything. 6. Enables complete interactivity with inanimate objects, animals, and Nature. 11. Provides access to everything not in your home, dorm room, or cubicle. Millions of people have already tried GOING OUTSIDE. Many of “your” friends may even be GOING OUTSIDE right now! Why not join them and see what happens?
GMO: I'm underwhelmed. " Lets HALT the stock. This news is so big, a penny stock may go up FOUR PERCENT!"
ReplyDeleteI guess Rare Earth is so yesterday.
TEAM; no big deal it is boring out there!
ReplyDeleteon the flip side, 1302 on ES has been quite a support level...let's see if it holds again...it has been tested 6 or 7 times in the past 4 days and bounced right off it. i would take it as bullish if it tests again and cant break it.
ReplyDeleteSo funny RB. Exactly how I see it!
ReplyDeleteCP- Chime in captain!
GMO - General Moly Announces Water Rights Approved
ReplyDeletehttp://www.streetinsider.com/Press+Releases/General+Moly+Announces+Water+Rights+Approval+for+Mt.+Hope+Project/6640785.html
Just checked NOKer RB. Yep, still going down.
ReplyDeleteSo do we stick with this sucker CP??
ReplyDeleteGMO - I see we made it to $4.55
ReplyDeleteDon't worry if you're long, the water rights, if approved (I haven't read the press release yet), will place the ball squarely in the BLM's court to release the DEIS (Draft Environmental Impact Statement) and following the review and public comment period, the ROD (Record Of Decision) ETA end of year that's all we need to begin construction.
I seriously doubt there's any case for a lower share price now, as this is one of the best(in terms of purity of concentration / size of deposit) mineable discoveries of Molybdenum and some of the product is already spoken for.
Unless there's something going on in Mongolia I'm not privy too.
GMO - I say hang onto it at least past $15, b/c BLM will approve the mine just as they have all the others in Nevada. Might take till end of year to reach $10+?
ReplyDeletejeez man i gotta stop shorting anything...
ReplyDeleteCP- Rodger Rodger. I'll hold now that this issue is behind it.
ReplyDeleteRB - Molybdenum isn't a rare earth, it's not used for making neodymium magnets, it's used along with nickle and/or in lieu of nickel to make strong and corrosive resistant steel, like stainless. It's used as a catalyst in refineries to crack hydrocarbon bonds (an application where it's recycled), and one of the layers in solar panels, (the thin-film PVD (physical vapor deposition) application), and many other miscellaneous uses, like a motor oil additive. Molybdenum's physical properties remind me a lot of graphite.
ReplyDeleteCP I know what MOLY is. I went to JR high in Tonopah, Nevada.Until now the MOLY capital of the US. It's just many traders put it in that group. Water rights are everything in Nevada. There is no environment to impact.
ReplyDeleteMoly is one of the primary a modern car weighs less and is more durable then a vehicle built before the 90's, when they began using better quality lighter, thinner yet stronger and corrosive resistant steel. These steels are tougher than the mild cold-rolled steel, and more difficult to work.
ReplyDeleteWatch the steelers for clues. MT and PKX are GMO investors, along with Hanlong.
out of my shorts.
ReplyDeleteRB - Yes, Ok. Perhaps you can tell us something about moly, feel free to fill in any details not touched on. ;)
ReplyDeleteReason number 1,0001,032 why not to short the market:
ReplyDeleteWhen everything looks bearish it's actually bullish.
On that note I re-entered my short SPY at $131.63, fully aware that I will be stopped out on Monday $2 higher.
Moly miners' children are bullies!
ReplyDeleteHey guys, is there a ticker for playing that "going outside" trade? I think it's gonna be a hit sooner or later...
ReplyDeleteI bet moly miner children are snot-nosed bullies with dirty shirts.
ReplyDeletesomeone was asking about CDS spreads:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750
TEAM, DIDN"T you hear. 90 % of European banks can handle stress. How bullish is that? A raise the debt agreement and were off to new highs!
ReplyDeleteIt's striking how the smaller shale oil companies in this scan were so far ahead of the other oils:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=161&t=XOM,CVX,COP,MRO,OXY,APA,PXP,PBR,HES,PXD,FST,NBL,MMR,STO,BP,ARD&o=-change
I did do well today with PXD,GEOI,BEXP and even the new MRO. It was lucky that I bought earlier this week but I am still looking forward to better times when the oil shales start producing big time. Note: HK is mostly shale gas and look at the premium they went for.
Ok fess up...who bought the HK $24 calls yesterday? Feel free to buy drinks.
ReplyDeleteWow...what a spike down in the VIX....with this and the 1,302 level never getting broken, it tells me we should be short term buyers on the market. Therefore, I closed my SPY short after hours.
ReplyDeleteHmm, impressive gold rally there after 4:00pm close, wonder who fired that shot?
ReplyDelete16:58pm: "8 of 90 banks flunk European stress tests aimed at strengthening financial system"
ReplyDeleteBAC - Gained $0.02 in AH, that almost never happens!
ReplyDeleteGuys - If Uncle Warren is right and we get a rebound in housing within the next next, wouldn't financials be the best thing to own?
ReplyDeleteAnd given the just awful sentiment surrounding banks and the terrible trading in these stocks, wouldn't now be an incredible time to buy them for the long term?
Also, if rates are going to raise because of this or if say the US debt gets downgraded, wouldn't that benefit banks?
Just thinking out loud here.
TOF- I'd rather go with a few home builders if that is the thesis. LEN is a leader and diversified.
ReplyDeleteI think JB is still long XHB, so it's probably too early :)
Let us know when JB sells. :)
ReplyDeleteWell, if we're counting on real estate, I think we're in trouble for a while longer.
ReplyDeleteHome builders might be able to tighten their belts enough to keep from losing their asses, not understanding that particular business very well, I don't have a take on that...
I do need to make some decisions though, 75% cash here...
Banks - I don't quite get how higher rates would help banks, wouldn't their borrowing costs increase and spread maybe shrink? Can Bernanke force bank lending by paying negative interest on their reserves and allowing them to carry lower levels of reserves? Perhaps that might help housing?
ReplyDeleteIf housing were to recover and FHA limit offering mortgage insurance, wouldn't mortgage insurers have a shot at obtaining new business?
ReplyDeleteBanks/Home Builders/Real Estate - I do not see much hope there until wages and employment pick up. Good luck with that. Even some Fed members say unemployment is now "structural". Yet housing is a linchpin of the economy.
ReplyDeleteT3D - Enjoyed both your posts last night. Hope you will occasionally throw us a bone over here.
ReplyDeleteCommercial Real Estate such as shopping centers is still in a bad way. Lots of vacancies. Overbuilt. Many turnovers. Over here in Peoria, IL the most risky biz prop is opening a restaurant, it seems. Many fold within 3 years.
ReplyDeleteYep, I think Ben will still try inflating away the housing crash, so if we're lucky at some point home prices will stop going down once inventory rebalances. By that time, prices of everything else could be quite high.
ReplyDeleteMaybe they'll settle on some compromise, but I'm really shocked they didn't work on the root cause of real estate default (gainful employment) as a top priority.
The silver lining is, there are more millionaires in my state now than ever before.
Gold - I guess the euro took off against the dollar following the euro bank stress test results.
ReplyDeleteCp if rates rise theoretically then banks would make a larger profit on the spread...low fed funds rates are actually hurting them more from what I have read..
ReplyDeleteTOF - If a bank can borrow from the FED at zero and loan at 4%, the spread would be 4%, right?
ReplyDeleteHigher rates make home ownership more expensive, which drives prices down, right?
Higher rates tend to slow an economy, and make the currency stronger, right? A stronger dollar would tend to make US goods and services more expensive to overseas customers, less competitive globally, fewer jobs?
Too few people chasing too many goods(over capacity) puts downward pressure on prices, which may be happening due to automated manufacturing, or low wage labor in developing countries? Note that wages in developing countries are moving up while wages in developed countries is being pushed down, the financial crisis seems to have reversed the pendulum.
I don't know how higher rates translates to higher profits for banks unless you're saying they can still borrow at zero and increase their spread. It's all about spread, right? They can currently borrow at zero and invest in developing country debt at higher rates and less risk than US debt, perhaps? Ben keeps rates on US debt low b/c he has to, else the interest eats into the measly Treasury revenue?
I'd like to hear coherent thought, not "I heard", ie: what are the actual mechanisms and how do they function, in theory?
Cp - my thinking is pretty basic regarding housing...if rates rise I think tha motivates ppl to buy before rates move up in a meaningful way. Also generally speaking a country with moderately high rates correlates with a stronger economy. So perhaps its a chicken and egg thing..ie we need a stronger econ b4 we get higher rates. In this environment banks would lend more and make more of the spread than in the current environment due in large part bc of more loan volume...
ReplyDeleteHere's a related housing article by gilbert:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/beginning-of-the-end-of-the-entire-crisis-2011-07-15?link=MW_home_latest_news
Sorry should say hulbert...damn cell phones
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