Wednesday, July 20, 2011

07/20/11 Night Moves



I can kind of 'see' the storm coming in, bro. SPX 1400. End of summer/early fall.

I awoke last night to the sound of thunder
How far off I sat and wondered
Started humming a song from 1962
Ain't it funny how the night moves
When you just don't seem to have as much to lose
Strange how the night moves
With autumn closing in
Posted by at

77 comments:

  1. ChickenpookieJuly 20, 2011 at 5:42 PM

    Ron Paul going into retirement, looks like:

    "After serving almost 24 years in the U.S. House of Representatives, Ron Paul announced that he will not be seeking another term for the District 14 seat. Paul will instead focus on his quest for the presidency in 2012."

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  2. 2nd_aveJuly 20, 2011 at 5:55 PM

    INTC delivers solid earnings and its stock price suffers the same (immediate post-earnings) fate as AA. Whatever. I have no problem with the report, and no problem holding the stock.

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  3. MarkWJuly 20, 2011 at 6:07 PM

    STEC- FFIV/STX/INTC etc....I'm dead tomorrow.

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  4. AnonymousJuly 20, 2011 at 6:33 PM

    I think we could all do well channeling Birinyi here:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/p-500-going-2-000-laszlo-birinyi-120034902.html

    "The short side is always more articulate"...never been said better. It's funny how we (I) waste time worrying about things that will fade over time. Life is good, things get better, the world moves on. And making money on the short side is nearly impossible when compared with longs.

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  5. illiniJuly 20, 2011 at 6:35 PM

    Here's what Wall Street guys spend their money on, at least some of it.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/20/us-usa-crime-prostitution-idUSTRE76J5YB20110720?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FbusinessNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Business+News%29

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  6. 2nd_aveJuly 20, 2011 at 6:36 PM

    Mark- WTF. You're not dead- you're holding a shitload of valuable stocks that are headed up in price over the next 6-12 months. This is your chance to ditch the day trading and join the buy-and-hold camp. It's like the HOV lanes in LA- when you see the dotted line, make your move- it may be 10 minutes before you see next opening.

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  7. 2nd_aveJuly 20, 2011 at 6:45 PM

    When you're long and losing, the whole world loses with you, brother. When you're short and losing...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eki_PRzNk-Y&feature=related

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  8. MarkWJuly 20, 2011 at 7:00 PM

    2nd- I'm about as close to a B&H guy right now as I'll ever be! STEC is only a trade. One that will go bad tomorrow. Hopefully the MM will pop it a little to off load and I'll be right along side him/her.

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  9. ChickenpookieJuly 20, 2011 at 7:34 PM

    ‘Very Positive’ Outlook

    Bloomberg, July 20

    “Millions of Chinese people are moving from the countryside to cities annually and that migration is leading to new jobs and new wealth, and the money is being invested in various opportunities,” Frawley said. “And you add to that the growth and modernization of India. The outlook for metals is very positive.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-20/newedge-sees-gold-at-1-800-in-2011-silver-at-70-by-march-on-asia-demand.html

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  10. ChickenpookieJuly 20, 2011 at 8:22 PM

    RVBD - Shit the bed today, huh? Looks like they've got strong growth, wonder if the October gap up can fill or if the selling's about done?

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  11. AnonymousJuly 20, 2011 at 8:31 PM

    http://content.screencast.com/users/DocBarter/folders/Default/media/3406c512-fe1c-4c17-a63b-ebf625e3bd79/TOF%20Ratio.png

    CP: I've been looking at IFN and other India-related indexes / stocks for a while now and while I can't deny the long term bullishness of this country, I keep thinking that this whole inflation thing will take a while to squash.

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  12. ChickenpookieJuly 20, 2011 at 8:35 PM

    OINK - ? "Pork prices jumped 57 percent in June in China, leading Premier Wen Jiabao to vow to curb inflation even as growth slows."

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-20/rice-prices-up-70-make-asian-inflation-tough-for-central-banks-to-digest.html

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  13. ChickenpookieJuly 20, 2011 at 9:07 PM

    TOF - "I keep thinking that this whole inflation thing will take a while to squash."

    I'm thinking past that one, I'm wondering what the root causes for their inflation are. Could be too many people chasing too few goods, but inflation doesn't seem to have shown up to any extent yet in the goods imported to the US?

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  14. RoBearJuly 20, 2011 at 9:22 PM

    Mark,
    Stec went down a whole cent after hours?
    Think about this instead of flash drives?
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Qua4FS7E1Y

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  15. RoBearJuly 20, 2011 at 9:29 PM

    Cp I was trying to day trade rvbd today. It held in a tight range meaning strong support at down 10 bucks. Trouble is there was as many sellers as buyers. For such a big move there was not much volitility in the stock. FTNT was a different story.

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  16. MarkWJuly 21, 2011 at 6:09 AM

    Took profits in SSO @ 53.94. 4.4%

    RB- Thanks for being a brother in a time of need man.

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  17. MarkWJuly 21, 2011 at 6:33 AM

    STEC off @ 17.93. 3.88%

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  18. MarkWJuly 21, 2011 at 6:40 AM

    Q's bounced off S1 to the penny.

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  19. ChickenpookieJuly 21, 2011 at 6:48 AM

    RVBD - Three day play?

    I think I'm gonns stick with PM's, anticipating a smackdown on the great news of passing a US debt ceiling on which PM's promptly hit the ceiling fan.

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  20. 2nd_aveJuly 21, 2011 at 6:48 AM

    Mark- You sound pretty normal for a dead guy.

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  21. ChickenpookieJuly 21, 2011 at 6:51 AM

    GMO - This is a longer hold in my port for adding on lower prices (maybe that opportunity's past?).

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  22. MarkWJuly 21, 2011 at 6:54 AM

    2nd :)

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  23. 2nd_aveJuly 21, 2011 at 6:57 AM

    CSCO back above 16.

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  24. ChickenpookieJuly 21, 2011 at 7:02 AM

    "Entire Apple stores being faked in China"

    LOL, wonder if they're US listed as a reverse merger?

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  25. MarkWJuly 21, 2011 at 7:03 AM

    Nice move off Philly Fed.

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  26. MarkWJuly 21, 2011 at 7:04 AM

    CP- That's Fing wild man!

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  27. ChickenpookieJuly 21, 2011 at 7:07 AM

    CSCO - Monster rally into earnings? Used to be to the 200SMA, nowadays it's to the 50SMA. Maybe this time there's no post-earnings selloff? One could only hope, I guess.

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  28. 2nd_aveJuly 21, 2011 at 7:16 AM

    Breaching DJIA 12700.

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  29. ChickenpookieJuly 21, 2011 at 7:19 AM

    S&P - Up 15 now, huh? Nice...

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  30. DavidJuly 21, 2011 at 7:21 AM

    I can't seem to adjust to Pacific time yet...

    As for the market, it looks like all the European debt problems were indeed priced in. Today, some agreement is shaping up in Europe and DB is already above $56! Now I *do* feel lucky with making profit on my July $55 puts, which I closed when DB was below $53...

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  31. BB CanadaJuly 21, 2011 at 7:24 AM

    Here's a stock you might want to consider - CDI Corp (CDI). I've got a mid-sized position and have a bid in to add.

    Rational:
    They are in the staffing business, which tends to do well as employment picks up. 2 of their major competitors, Robert Half (RHI) and Manpower (MAN) reported good earnings which exceeded expectations this week and competitor SFN Group (SFN) got a bid from Randstat (Dutch, largest employment company in the world) at a 50% premium.

    It also pays a 4% dividend while you wait, is trading less than book value and doesn't have a lot of debt. It's earnings have been poor lately, but that is common in a deep recession, so keeping the price down so we can buy.

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  32. AnonymousJuly 21, 2011 at 7:25 AM

    Financials are really rallying! I wouldn't be surprised if Financials lead the market the entire 2nd half and XLF closes at YTD highs.

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  33. DavidJuly 21, 2011 at 7:26 AM

    Those mean credit cards keep sending me better and better balance transfer offers. Now Chase sent me offers for a 0% APR cash advance with a 1% transaction fee! I'll have to take advantage of it soon, if ECU stays below $0.90! Buying ECU below $0.9 is one sure investment IMO, guaranteed to grow MUCH MORE than the 1% transaction fee...

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  34. ChickenpookieJuly 21, 2011 at 7:28 AM

    GMO's rally puts my port at nice new highs, yee-ha!

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  35. DavidJuly 21, 2011 at 7:32 AM

    Man, the GMO options are definitely not moving smoothly! The bid-ask for Sept. $5 calls was 0.25-0.35 from the time GMO was at $4.40 up until $4.70 at the close yesterday. Today, the bid-ask jumped to 0.35-0.50... I decided to put up for sale 10 more September $5 calls at the limit of $0.45.

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  36. DavidJuly 21, 2011 at 7:33 AM

    Congratulations, CP!

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  37. 2nd_aveJuly 21, 2011 at 7:33 AM

    CP- When you're long and winning, it's Yippee-ki-yay, --------------!

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  38. 2nd_aveJuly 21, 2011 at 7:34 AM

    At least that's how it goes down in the prison yard.

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  39. AnonymousJuly 21, 2011 at 7:39 AM

    Nice CP!

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  40. AnonymousJuly 21, 2011 at 7:41 AM

    Boy it's hard to stay ahead of that MITK. My FAS position is up 5.35% (I have 100% of my money in it) while MITK is up another 3.7%. So today I'm winning but I suspect I won't be by the end of the day. I now need MITK to crash down to $8.6 in order for me to have the same money I would have if I held a 100% position in MITK.

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  41. ChickenpookieJuly 21, 2011 at 7:44 AM

    MDW - I'd say put a $2 stink bid out there and let it sit till it gets filled.

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  42. MarkWJuly 21, 2011 at 7:48 AM

    Nice CP!

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  43. RoBearJuly 21, 2011 at 7:57 AM

    Team nice FAS play. CP love the GMO move up. Mark see TZOO this morning.

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  44. MarkWJuly 21, 2011 at 8:05 AM

    CE- I keep going back to that one. From 8 to 58.

    RB- I saw it. I'm assuming you didn't hold into earnings.

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  45. RoBearJuly 21, 2011 at 8:10 AM

    I don't like holding through earnings.

    SINO is on a little BO

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  46. ChickenpookieJuly 21, 2011 at 8:22 AM

    TZOO - A true to form POS stock, gotta love it.

    RB - Tell us when to go long RVBD, this is your assignment should you choose to accept it. This post will self destruct in one minute.

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  47. ChickenpookieJuly 21, 2011 at 8:25 AM

    FAZ - I hope this one runs down through $42.50 and keeps on going, the higher lows have me concerned.

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  48. RoBearJuly 21, 2011 at 8:40 AM

    How come i get all the easy assignments?

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  49. RoBearJuly 21, 2011 at 8:43 AM

    I have at least used tzoo. Never could use pcln. The Best of breed I guess.

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  50. ChickenpookieJuly 21, 2011 at 9:20 AM

    Shaw puttin' in a bottom (observation only)?

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  51. IgorJuly 21, 2011 at 9:24 AM

    CSCO up almost 3% this morning. Any news I missed or just the anticipation of earnings and layoffs announcement? Still pondering the question if I should hedge with options going into the earnings number. Chambers always has a surprise for us in store.

    Anybody holding on to CALM still? Unfortunatley I did not have the patience to wait. CALM is not calm anymore.

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  52. ChickenpookieJuly 21, 2011 at 9:29 AM

    CALM - LOL, it figures...

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  53. ChickenpookieJuly 21, 2011 at 9:34 AM

    S&P - I guess in another week or so we see if the inverse H&S with head mid June plays out. Certainly fits with TOF's theory...

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  54. ChickenpookieJuly 21, 2011 at 10:33 AM

    HAYN - Breaking out?

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  55. MarkWJuly 21, 2011 at 11:08 AM

    What, no COOL?

    Wonder what's up there.

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  56. ChickenpookieJuly 21, 2011 at 11:11 AM

    un-COOL Today, apparently ;)

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  57. MarkWJuly 21, 2011 at 11:20 AM

    MITK

    http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20110718005372/en/USAA%E2%80%99s-DepositMobile-App-iPad-2

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  58. ChickenpookieJuly 21, 2011 at 11:25 AM

    FCX - Freeport earned $1.37-billion in the quarter, compared with $649-million a year earlier. Revenue rose 50.4%, to $5.8-billion.they sold 21 million pounds of moly in the second quarter. This is 24% higher than their April estimate of 17 million pounds. Improved demand for molybdenum raised their target for molybdenum sales to 77-million pounds; a 5% increase from an earlier estimate of 73-million pounds.

    Current molybdenum target is $16 by Halloween.

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  59. MarkWJuly 21, 2011 at 11:33 AM

    CP- I couldn't find any word from yesterday's meeting??

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  60. ChickenpookieJuly 21, 2011 at 11:42 AM

    FCX - Set your stink bids under June 29 gap up from $50.

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  61. ChickenpookieJuly 21, 2011 at 11:46 AM

    "Banks pay back TARP funds by ... borrowing from Treasury"

    Borrowing from Peter to pay Paul, it seems. And they weren't even nice enough to let the fools buying BAC at $15 off the hook, either. tsk, tsk!

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  62. AnonymousJuly 21, 2011 at 12:21 PM

    I really like CTCT (Constant Contact) longer term. Not gonna be a blockbuster stock like MITK right away, but their revenue growth is awesome and over the long term I think it's gonna be a big winner. They’re the company that makes the email advertising online software that tons of websites use. Check out the rev growth:

    http://financials.morningstar.com/income-statement/is.html?t=CTCT&region=USA&culture=en-US

    2006: $28 Million
    2010: $174 Million

    They’re moving into profitability now too…and the stock is beaten down which makes it more attractive. They’re not a cheap company but at 3.5 times revenue it’s not a crazy valuation with the revenue growth they have. And their business model is excellent: recurring monthly revenues. They do have a lot of competition, though, but they’re the leader in their space and they’re adding a bunch of new services. They’re getting into CRM and other “cloud” related stuff. I think this could be a 5 to 10 bagger over the next 3 to 5 years.

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  63. ChickenpookieJuly 21, 2011 at 12:34 PM

    Mark - "I couldn't find any word from yesterday's meeting??"

    I haven't looked but they'd be posted here when they're available:

    http://www.co.eureka.nv.us/comish/minutes.htm

    Looks like they're posted, too...

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  64. ChickenpookieJuly 21, 2011 at 12:43 PM

    Oh no, sorry, it's not posted yet, the June 20 minutes are the most recent.

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  65. MarkWJuly 21, 2011 at 12:45 PM

    CP- Why wouldn't the Co. comment on them?

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  66. RoBearJuly 21, 2011 at 12:49 PM

    The wrong Moly just shot up $2.00 MCP

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  67. MarkWJuly 21, 2011 at 12:51 PM

    RB- Wow, wonder what that's about.

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  68. ChickenpookieJuly 21, 2011 at 12:51 PM

    I meant May 29th is posted, they're running behind on posting these. Good governance always keeps residents in the dark?

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  69. MarkWJuly 21, 2011 at 12:52 PM

    REE also.

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  70. MarkWJuly 21, 2011 at 12:56 PM

    And DNN.

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  71. ChickenpookieJuly 21, 2011 at 1:01 PM

    Generally, they only comment when permits are received. Apparently, to their satisfaction the water permits are done. Then, we'd like to know if the 3M plan has been agreed upon and accepted by the county and their protest dropped.

    I see nothing on this, so it's safe to assume the county protest isn't dropped at least until August 6th. I expect they'll work our an acceptable monitoring plan, apparently they've got proposals on the table and it would be nice to have some detail.

    Perhaps a few phone calls would reveal some detail, not sure.

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  72. RoBearJuly 21, 2011 at 1:04 PM

    I can't find news. Buy out?

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  73. RoBearJuly 21, 2011 at 1:05 PM

    AVL is a laggard. Thinking about an afterhours bid. Once i know the news.

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  74. ChickenpookieJuly 21, 2011 at 1:44 PM

    MCP - Something to do with Seagate and high RE prices hitting their costs?

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  75. ChickenpookieJuly 21, 2011 at 2:31 PM

    NVR - +0.67% "Homebuilder NVR's profit sank 46 percent in 2Q NVR posts sharply lower 2Q profit, revenue on weaker orders; but results beat Street views"

    http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=nvr&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

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  76. AnonymousJuly 21, 2011 at 3:59 PM

    Sovereign CDS spreads have collapsed..funny media isn't saying anything about it: http://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750

    ReplyDelete
  77. 2nd_aveJuly 21, 2011 at 5:07 PM

    new post

    ReplyDelete

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