Monday, July 25, 2011
07/25/11 STP, The Trader's Edge
Does anyone know what adding STP, The Racer's Edge to your fuel tank is supposed to accomplish?
Whereas adding STP, The Trader's Edge is guaranteed to Stoke The Portfolio! They're dumping a can into the market this morning in the form of Nervous Nellies dumping shares- which is likely to ignite a rally that leads to new highs once the 'additive' works its way through the fuel line to the combustion chamber.
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Tof, exactly and I think we get there within a year.
ReplyDeleteSTP - Super Tough Petroleum, the racer's edge.
ReplyDeleteCADC - David, how do you anticipate the warrant exercise might go, any ideas?
ReplyDeleteWFR - What do you guys think of this one, any hope?
ReplyDeleteSVM - Back in @ $11.49 but yipes, too soon?!
ReplyDeleteEnjoyed the group discussions from a fundamental point of view, my weak suit.
ReplyDeleteTechnically the SP 500 has broke below its trendline on the daily (SEP 10 lows and Mar 11 lows). This poses the possibility that we are putting in a top and as Ro Bear said we have been going sideways since 2/18/11 where the mkt closed at 1343.
The real opportunity and why the market seems so good is that the boys are just rotating trough sectors which gives the sp500 stability. Be in the right place at the right time and your are doing very well.
TBT, agree has fu decay, I use TBF and have been trading it the last few weeks, out now, every time they rumor announced a debt/cut agreement, bonds rallied yields fell.
So smart pension fund manger (calpers) thought the the fed would keep the lid on treasuries for another year in a half or two. It is very hard to trade against the elephant in the room when they are making decisions not based on fundamentals but policy. Pick your spots.
Clearly only half of the TOG has worked to this point.
Read something interesting by Harry Schlutz, but that's for another time.
AGRO picking up a little here, but still in downtrend. Long
I'd hate to be the guy who decided to short the ES last night when DJIA futes were -190.
ReplyDeleteTelestar3d,
ReplyDeleteWould you be a buyer then if we broke above the end of April highs or what would confirm a move up in your approach?
Here's how I see it, FWIW:
ReplyDelete$INDU - Lower trend line appears to be around 12,650? Rising past the double top (12,750?) and over the IH&S neckline (12,850?) would be a positive sign indicative of a leg up to 13,298, gold holding $1604 and silver moving over $40.86 would be other positive indicators.
I'm anticipating an opposite reaction if the dollar takes off for some reason.
"CADC - David, how do you anticipate the warrant exercise might go, any ideas?"
ReplyDeleteWhat exercise? They are set to expire in 2 years if CADC stays below $2.40. I think there is a good chance that CADC hits $2.40 today or tomorrow, thus triggering my sell limit order at $2.37. :)
MIPS on a pull back? Looks good on the weekly/monthly.
ReplyDeleteAAPL 400.
ReplyDeleteMIPS? I get those on the golf course all of the time.
ReplyDeleteCADC - Okay, I'm guessing CADC will probably reach $2.40 at some point and perhaps the warrants will be exercised. I guess you're telling me they cannot or aren't likely to be exercised for two years?
ReplyDeleteMore likely, you're telling me you don't mind trading in and out of CADC for the next couple years while the share price is beneath $2.40...
LNG - Is there a short squeeze setting up on this one?
ReplyDelete> I guess you're telling me they cannot or aren't likely to be exercised for two years?
ReplyDeleteIf I understand these warrants correctly, they cannot be exercised if CADC is below $2.40. Who would convert their option with some value into stock at a premium to the current stock price, instead of just buying the stock at the current price if that price is below $2.40?
> More likely, you're telling me you don't mind trading in and out of CADC for the next couple years while the share price is beneath $2.40...
Yep. I am planning to keep my core position in CADC (3000 shares at the cost of $1.80) for at least a year, so as to book a long-term capital gain on them, and then buy any pullback in CADC under $2.
Kinda looks like Asia panicked last night, doesn't it?
ReplyDeleteCOOL off flat @ 2.60.
ReplyDelete"Who would convert their option with some value into stock at a premium to the current stock price, instead of just buying the stock at the current price if that price is below $2.40?"
ReplyDeleteSeems like that doesn't preclude them from exercising once the stock reaches $2.40 or more, so if say the prices reaches $2.45, they might be tempted, no?
"Who would convert their option with some value into stock at a premium to the current stock price, instead of just buying the stock at the current price if that price is below $2.40?"
ReplyDeleteThey might want to. Typical deal is 1 warrant for every share in the initial offer so they're 'free'. Also, like options, they can expire worthless.
Someones exiting MITK rather clumsily. Look to scalp @ 9.20.
ReplyDeleteWTF is wrong with our politicians? I mean don't they understand they sound like children? Aren't they embarrassed to see themselves on TV the next morning? I wonder if their grandkids think they're hypocrites when they yell at them for not playing nicely with other kids.
ReplyDeleteBRCM- Damn, up +9% after hours
ReplyDeleteI realize I don't own individual positions in stocks like AAPL and BRCM. But I own significant positions via Fidelity funds FSELX and FSPTX.
ReplyDelete"Aren't they embarrassed to see themselves on TV the next morning?"
ReplyDeleteNO! These guys can do no wrong.
In general, their kids/grandkids are the proverbial acorns.
ReplyDeleteBB aks, "Would you be a buyer then if we broke above the end of April highs or what would confirm a move up in your approach? "
ReplyDeleteNot necessarily, but it would absolutely negate the thesis put forward. I much prefer to buy reactions within 45 degree up trends (The ideal setup). In that way if I'm wrong, my stop is relatively tight and I can take multiple shots if so desired.
There are many who would buy the B/O, but not my style. I'm an eclectic trader and trade in different ways, but the above is my bread and butter.
Said another way, always trade in the direction of the trend for safest trades.
BRCM, nice earnings I would like to get involved with this. This is a good example, nice run and has been selling off since dec/jan some basing in the 30-35 range and maybe an inverse head and shoulder on the weekly.
BB, hope this helps.
One thing for sure they throw a lot at the market and it seems not to want to go down.
6pm tonight, a rare TV appearance for Obama.
ReplyDeleteTOF- After watching both speeches tonight, the answer to your question is no. They just hand out money to the grand kids. Would work with mine :)
ReplyDeleteOr smokes I suppose in certain cases...
ReplyDeleteBB is on to something with the insurance play. ACGL crushed the street estimates, but a concern is net income has declined significantly from a year ago. Tornadoes, sunami ect. I don't know about all that fundy stuff. Chart looks good. It will be interesting to see how market reacts.
ReplyDeleteGaps up - There still are quite a few stocks with gaps up that make me nervous, FCX and SVM are only a couple of them...
ReplyDeletefracking unbelievable HDY is on a breakout.
ReplyDeleteLooks like the dollar dropped the soap in the prison shower.Real close to breaking lower support
ReplyDeletelevel.I know this is equities positive, but it depresses me anyway.
RoBear,
ReplyDeleteI think most investors in insurance (especially P&C) know earnings are lumpy due to cat events like storms and earthquakes. The nature of insurance though is that if companies take big hits, rates got up the next year and the companies make the money back.
I think what is driving insurance companies up now are:
1. Very low valuations - they have been dragged down with the banks, even though they did not make the big mistakes the banks made other than AIG of course (The insurance companies made a lot of mistakes back in the 2002 cycle and were much more conservative this time - better to be lucky than smart sometimes).
2. Rising interest rates - very low interest rates are difficult for insurance companies as most of their money is invested in bonds and they make the bulk of their profit on their investment returns. The gradual moving up of interest rates is good for earnings as moneys can be invested at higher rates. On the other hand, if we saw rates rise quickly up to say 10%, this would be bad as the value of their bond holdings would be hit.
3. Improving equity markets - on the life side, a lot of companies write products which are tied to the stock markets (eg. variable annuities). Some companies fully buyoff this risk (eg. NWLI buys call options which match the policy's equity exposure), but some companies hold some of the market risk (eg. MFC which saw it's stock from $40 to $7 because the actuaries thought they could manage the market risk - they were wrong). Also, a lot of companies have portions of their investments in the stock markets.
I think some of these factors are starting to be recognized in the market and all insurance companies have to do is move more back in line with their traditional valuations on a P/E, P/B basis and this would provide returns generally in the 50% to 100% range.
More evidence of the good Q2 earnings:
ReplyDeleteLast week’s gusher of Q2 reports from the S&P 500 revealed better-than expected results for both earnings and revenues. Of the 148 companies
(30%) of the S&P 500 that have reported so far, 76% have beaten earnings expectations, 12% have matched expectations and 12% have missed. In a
typical quarter, 62% of companies beat estimates, 18% match and 20% miss. This earnings strength is corroborated by strength in revenues, as 77% have beaten expectations on this measure. According to Thomson Reuters, the consensus estimate of Q2 earnings growth has jumped to 9% this week from less than 7% last week. Excluding financials (which are dragged down by Bank of America’s writedowns), the estimate of S&P 500 earnings growth rises to 17% this week from less than 15% last week.
The consensus estimate of revenue growth holds at 10%, unchanged from last week.
"JP Morgan reiterated its Overweight rating on Bank of America (NYSE: BAC). At the same time, the rating agency left its price target on the company's stock unchanged at $18. On Monday, BAC lost 1.18% of its value to finish at $10.01. Its shares recovered some of yesterday's losses in today's pre-market trading, rising 0.6% to stand around $10.07."
ReplyDeleteDon't shoot the messenger, but at some point people actually turn from extremely pessimistic on banks to somewhat pessimistic and the stocks go up.
DANG! Your dead...
ReplyDeleteI hoped to hop back into GMO today on weak X earnings. I got 1/2 of that right, but GMO not responding :(
ReplyDeleteGMO - Has no production, of course that means there are no earnings... ;)
ReplyDeleteCP- X earnings...US Steel.
ReplyDeleteAKS getting hit even harder.
ReplyDeleteAh yes, X earnings. Still, X is red. Plenty of bearish charts to be found.
ReplyDeleteHAYN - A specialty steel manufacturer with a decent chart (in case you might think all steel charts look terrible)
ReplyDeletePKX is second best chart, IMO.
It's been a particularly ugly year.
CADC CEO to take Co. private @ 2.65
ReplyDeleteCADC - $2.65? LOL, at least someone can't pass up a deal.
ReplyDeleteI couldn't stomach the chart.
Debating picking back up the SSO I sold a few days ago now that it's a few % points lower.
ReplyDeleteSorry, my bad. It's only slightly lower.
ReplyDeleteJust an update > I haven't heard back from Bud Leedom at MITK to help clarify why he wrote the research report on MITK and is the Finance Director of MITK. Just seems like a conflict of interest to me.
ReplyDeletePerhaps I'm too biased because I'm holding a large FAS position, but financials sure seem to be acting stronger than the market. It seems like each time they sell them off they get bought right back up. As I type XLF is positive...perhaps a sentiment change?
ReplyDelete"CADC CEO to take Co. private @ 2.65"
ReplyDeleteIt's disgusting to see how little etiquette the traders of these Chinese companies have -- this news was leaked out not one hour before, not two hours before, but 5 days before, as CADC started rocketing back on Friday...
Such an advance notice, however, allowed me to buy CADC at the end of the first rally day at $2.02 and *still* have two more rally days left. My sell limit order for 1000 shares at $2.37 was triggered this morning at $2.50. From the IRS point of view, this morning I sold the share lot I purchased at $2.80 and thus booked a $300 loss on this lot, offsetting slightly the $2K gain I made when I sold into CADC's previous spike to $3 in May. Now I have 3000 shares left at the cost basis of $1.80, which I will keep for a long term.
Incidentally, does anyone have an idea as to why CADC is collapsing now? Doesn't anyone want to buy CADC at $2.15 and then sell these shares to the CEO at $2.65?
TOF- I sent an email also and haven't heard back either.
ReplyDeleteTOF- I sent my email on Sunday. Nothing but selling since. I wonder if Bud is selling like crazy and they're folding up the tent!!
ReplyDeleteI thought about it for a split second and then reloaded at $2.15 the 1000 shares I sold this morning at $2.50. The current price ($2.15) is below the warrant exercise price of $2.40, so it is a totally safe purchase as far as I am concerned.
ReplyDeleteDavid- My guess is...WTF, the CEO is only willing, if it's even true, to take the Co. private @ 2.65? It was double that a few months ago?
ReplyDeleteMark > Yeah man...I don't quite get why they would let him continue to act as an analyst. If I was the CEO of MITK I'd be pissed about that. Maybe they had some agreement in place with him before he started working for them?
ReplyDeleteMITK- I'm sure your all wonder, 'I can't believe Mark hasn't sold any MITK after that run, what a dick head!'.
ReplyDeleteWell, here's my thinking. I have 1/2 of my shares in an IRA. The other 1/2 in a taxable acct. If I sell my shares in the IRA I'm locked out for 3 days. If I sell my shares in mt taxable account, I create a very big tax bill. So, I'm trying to be more patient than normal.
Does seem like weak hands are panicing here.
Hopefully Bud get's his ass out of the bar and returns our emails.
"David- My guess is...WTF, the CEO is only willing, if it's even true, to take the Co. private @ 2.65? It was double that a few months ago?"
ReplyDeleteMark, if you were the CEO of this company and felt that the fair value of the stock is $5, and then the crazy market traders take the stock down below $2, wouldn't you also come up with an offer to buy the company at that cheap price? You would naturally act in self interest and offer a low buy out price, right?
Looks like I bought back into CADC at exactly its turning point -- talk about the benefits of waking up early! :)
ReplyDeleteRotation in Stocks
ReplyDeleteThere's a rotation going on in the markets for sure. High fliers are getting sold, IYT and the trannys are getting sold, banks and blue chips are getting bought. IYT confirming no more move up while Copper is suggesting we're going higher. I think long blue chip laggards and banks is a good strategy here.
CADC - I couldn't understand the selling either, aside from the "sell the news" crowd doing their thing.
ReplyDeleteThe selling in CADC might be due to this news:
ReplyDelete"WILMINGTON, Del., Jul 26, 2011 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Rigrodsky & Long, P.A. announces that it is investigating potential claims against the board of directors of China Advanced Construction Materials Group, Inc. ("China ACM" or the "Company") /quotes/zigman/110626/quotes/nls/cadc CADC -5.22% concerning possible breaches of fiduciary duty and other violations of law related to the Company's receipt of a proposal from its Chairman and CEO, Xianfu Han, and Weili He, Vice Chairman and COO, to acquire the remainder of the Company they do not already own for $2.65 per share in cash (the "Proposal").
The investigation concerns whether China ACM's board of directors is adequately shopping the Company and working to obtain the best price possible for China ACM's shareholders. Indeed, according to Yahoo! Finance, at least one analyst has issued a price target for $5.00 per share for China ACM stock."
I don't see why it's bad -- it just reaffirms the fact that CADC's fair price is much higher. Whatever. Any entry below $2.40 is guaranteed to make money over the 2-year time horizon, since the warrants expire in the summer of 2013.
SVM - Classic struggle, can't add or sell here although I know I should be doing one or the other. I'm leaning towards selling but the overnight PM strength keeps me from waiting for prices to fall.
ReplyDeleteSo I'll simply add at lower prices if the charts prove to be correct.
MMM - Earnings didn't inspire?
ReplyDeleteMMM - So it looks like a retest of 200SMA was the trading plan.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/7-22-11-Daily-SP-500.gif
ReplyDeleteSaut
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketfolly.com/2011/07/market-strategist-jeff-saut-cautiously.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MarketFolly+%28Market+Folly%29
Not much cooking so far, eh?
ReplyDeleteExcept that ECU is drifting down because all big buyers are waiting for the merger to be finalized. This smells like another unique opportunity to me to capitalize on the market inefficiency. I am itching to borrow more from a credit card and buy more ECU at this point...
ReplyDeleteDilution!
ReplyDeleteI know of no professional money managers who think this is a good thing for their stock holdings.
Harry Schultz (Schultz was my grandfather's nickname) was one of the first newsletter writers and an excellent trader.
ReplyDeleteHe said this, "The art of investment is the art of selling. Always plan to sell whatever U buy, usually as soon as possible, & often several times-as U learn the nature of the item & its mkt. Buying is a lesser skill, & holding requires no skill."
T3D > I absolutely agree that the art of selling is essential. I know of too many people that hold on too long, yet I know I personally sell too quickly with my big potential winners. So what's the right method then? If I had my choice I'd say I'd rather selling early and often but I've personally only held a stock for more than a year twice and that was before I knew anything about stocks.
ReplyDeleteBut it also depends on what you're holding and how much conviction you have in it. I don't mind taking higher levels of risk given my age but with that in mind I know that oftentimes if it rewards me a lot right away then I'm a fool not to take some off...
ReplyDeleteThe main issue I have though is not being able to just take "some" off...if I mentally want out I will sell everything. I'm trying to prepare myself better mentally at the prospect of letting a smaller position run and taking some off along the way, but I haven't yet gotten around to trying to master that in practice.
ReplyDeleteLot's of talk about the home mortgage deduction. If they pull that for current homes also, David's 2012 plan may be too early.
ReplyDeleteHmmm...Interesting ideas on holding period. Like TOF, I usually sell to early and all at once. Trying to work on that with MITK.
ReplyDeleteStanding Aside: I'm moving back to cash. I don't really like being long...I know this debt ceiling just isn't supposed to impact anything but I feel like the longer this carries on the more pessimistic it makes everyone about our economy and politicians and it's ultimately gonna feed into lower prices.
ReplyDeleteAlso people keep making fun of the politicians for the market not buying that it's a problem...but it's slowly getting weaker...that could turn into a wipeout which I would use for a buying opportunity.
So I sold my FAS just now at $24.95...
Mark the key is probably identifying who were are as people...if we're the type that have short attention spans and don't like staying in something too long, then we're probably better off identifying that first and being ok with selling early.
ReplyDeleteFAS is a perfect example for me. Normally I would have sold last week on the euphoria but I decided to wait and see if there was follow through action. The result: I sold at a 9% gain versus a 12% gain....and ultimately I will probably buy back at a higher price because I tried to be more patient but then my fear of a big selloff took over and I reverted back to my own impatient self. So if I just accept the fact that I'm impatient and not willing to wait through cycles of higher, pullback, higher, etc...then I'm better off selling when I have gotten a good gain because I know I would later on become impatient when it starts to pull back a little. Anyway, I'm just rambling but I think it's better to identify ourselves first and then identify what we want to do with our investments....
TOF- Yep, I agree. I'm also the type of person who can't have a lot of positions on at once. I guess my point is I'd rather try and stretch out my positions a little longer. Capital gains treatment is probably a dream :)
ReplyDeleteTOF, all good points with respect to your internal dialogue. Trading with your personality is essential to success.
ReplyDeleteI'm often early in both directions and grapple with the same issues you mention. All one can do is look at the problem and the various approaches to mitigate and align with one'spersonality. What's right for me may be wrong for you , Mark or any of us.
As my friend Ben likes to say, if it was easy anyone could do it. And it sure beats holding a jack hammer all day.
Mark > I've never believed that we should consider the tax implications of our trading/investing. I think it should never have an impact on whether or not you want to hold something for the long term. The story about the company has to remain intact first and foremost.
ReplyDeleteTOF, with respect to tax implications, I think exactly the same as you, but did not want to say anything.
ReplyDeleteTaxes...Yes, I'm sure many here would agree with that, as I do probably 90% of the time. In fact, I've never had a Capital gain. You last point is mine though. Why sell if nothing material has changed and price is still in the range of the thesis? I think we are agreeing here.
ReplyDeleteI will say though, I would trade around it a little more if there were no tax/time implications.
There are two fairly reliable patterns to trade in this bull market:
ReplyDelete(1) Rising channels usually resolve themselves to the downside.
(2) Falling channels usually resolve themselves to the upside.
One example of a falling channel: XLF...I suspect it resolves itself to the upside.
JNPR hurting CSCO. A buying op?
ReplyDeleteTOF- My XLF (FAS) target is 15.75.
ReplyDeleteGPL - Double top target was $3.64, today it hit that target.
ReplyDeleteMark > If XLF gets there without me in FAS then I would be unhappy.
ReplyDeleteremember when we used to come in every morning and the market would be up huge? well it's been a few weeks in a row where the opposite has happened. perhaps it's just a subtle change or maybe something more sinister?
ReplyDeleteAny hope JNPR problems are already priced into CSCO stock? I am planning to diversify part of my CSCO holding into AKAM. I like the graph seems to be pulling up from the bottom
ReplyDeleteNot sure what to make of it Igor.
ReplyDeleteThe more I look at the financials, the better they look...I have a feeling I will be jumping back into FAS soon. They are all showing bull flags.
I have been busy w/ a couple new business venture, thus I haven't been involved in the market too much of late.
ReplyDeleteHowever, I have seen 4 separate headlines in the past 2 days commenting on how the debt ceiling debate has absolutely no bearing on the stock market. Why the stock market will continue to be strong in the face of this gridlock.... Saying how "strong" the market is in face of the chaos. I think this is a set-up.
I have seen leading indicators- TZOO, NFLX, (now CVV) REDF,SIFY, MITK, X, STLD (all of leading indicator commodity stocks with the exception of rare elements- MCP, REE etc.....all start to fall. Usually these leading indicator "momo" stocks fall 2-6 sessions before the market drops substantially. I think it all started about 4 sessions ago.
There are a couple of stocks that I really like here. However, all of the above is the type of crap that results in a 3 hour market drop of 1,000 points or more. I am heading to Laos and am hoping the Nasdaq can break out to the upside so we can have a 1,000 point breakout to the upside over the next 6 months.
In the meantime, I would be VERY hesitant to recommend "buy and hold" for those looking for +20% annual returns.
Jesse - I kind of agree with the short term thing...very odd to me that people are all saying stocks are the safe haven. Since when have stocks ever been a safe haven in a period of heightened volatility? Its part of the reason I took the opportunity to just go to the sidelines for the short term.
ReplyDeleteI mentioned my analogy to 1999 a while ago... Well, it's still kind of in place. That was what originally got me thinking that we would be going to 1,220 to 1,230 first and after the past few days of trading I think there is a now a decent chance it does happen within the next month. Take a closer look at how the market traded back in the summer of 1999. I'm not saying it will be the exact same thing but it gives you an indication of how a market can trade after (a) a huge multi-month run up after a sovereign debt crisis (back then it was the Asian crisis, now it's the Euro crisis from last year), (b) then a low-panic, yet steady pullback over the course of a month or so and (c) a sharp throwback rally. All of these have happened here. What followed in 1999 was a false breakdown below the prior supports, which would equate to a drop below 1,250 for us. Not saying analogies should be followed to the T but this one is pretty similar given the similar economic backdrop.
TOF- Yes, everybody is saying that stocks are "safe" in light of the chaos.
ReplyDeleteFrom a long term perspective, there is still a HUGE;... let me reiterate MASSIVE weekly and monthly head and shoulders pattern on all of the indices- IWM, RUT, SPX, DJIA etc. etc...
IF, IF, iF this starts breaking down, we see a MASSIVE drop.
On the bullish side, we are at the cusp of a multi-year cup and handle, which would lead to a HUGE breakout to the upside.
W/ the leading indicators selling off.....HARD.... These momo stocks are not just selling off a little bit, but selling off SUBSTANTIALLY, I am not willing to bet on the long side just yet.
There is ABSOLUTELY ZERO, ZILCH, NADA, NONE, reason to be long or short here.
If you get long, the market will crash. If you get short, the market will skyrocket.
I think the best course of action is to wait on the sidelines, be entertained by CNBC, CNN, Barron's etc. and invest your hard earned money in a month or two- whether its at 1000 SPX or 1500 SPX...
In the meantime, we need to start taking a look at weekly breakout long-termers like STVI 80% off its highs:)
And don't forget about the "BLT" top that I have been talking about since the first trading day of May. It still stands.
ReplyDeleteOne thing I did notice when I was looking through stuff is that there was SIGNIFICANT put volume in SPY versus call volume in August, September and October...not sure what the totals are but they were heavily skewed to the put side. I would take that as bullish to be honest.
ReplyDeleteHow can we know which way DC is positioned in terms of the market? I've got nothing really tangible aside from I think they want to avoid a selloff but they're the greatest thieves that ever walked and I wouldn't put it past them to be on the right side whichever it is.
ReplyDeleteAnybody picking up on pre-spin?
Jesse/TOF - Thanks for the insights. There does seem to be trouble ahead, ominous indeed. I can even see it in my algo numbers where the G/R ratio is poor in all three time frames for new positions. No sell signals will occur ,however, till SPX 1323 ST, 1315 IT or 1258 LT (all moving targets). I am still 98% long but the pucker factor is growing.
ReplyDeleteI think what threw me off during the last selloff was we didn't quite make it to the 200SMA before buyers stepped in. We only came close, while I was anticipating an overshoot to the downside.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, now I've got a July double top downside target that takes us back to the June low. That's about 1266 on S&P. A move like that should be sufficient to take the RSI's back under 30, I'd expect.
Twits quote of the day...
ReplyDelete"$CADC closed at $2.20 on 487,000 shares on a day management offers $2.65 in cash. The market has just called bullshit on the offer. SEC next."
new post
ReplyDelete