Tuesday, July 26, 2011
07/26/11 All alone at the end of the of the evening
And the bright lights have faded to blue
Nothing beats quiet moments of reflection at the end of the day. If one is marking time:
(a) It's all noise.
(b) No one knows where prices are headed day-to-day or month-to-month.
(c) The bulk of market moves tend to occur when least expected, and the gains over a few select days of the year.
Alright, back to the music.
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MITK- http://stk.ly/qu1C30
ReplyDeleteDon't really quite understand it all, but like the sound of it.
TOF,
ReplyDeletere selling - doing a partial sale guarantees you will be wrong. Either you should have sold more if it goes down or held it all if it goes up. I think that is why people have a tough time with it.
I find that once you convince yourself it is ok to be wrong, then ideas like risk management, diversification, etc. can be thought through more clearly and better decisions made.
GMO recent polling data shows it is leading Obama by 83%...
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/3f4zroa
Re the market, I really believe ignoring politics is the right thing to do here.
ReplyDeleteStock valuations are still cheap, earnings for Q2 are excellent again.
Some solution will be arrived at and it really doesn't matter what it is - as long as a solution is found, that certainty will get people back focused on stocks again and they are good here.
SSO @ 53.07. This is support for me.
ReplyDeleteSelling out of the gate.
ReplyDeleteBB I agree to a certain extent about ignoring political stuff and just focusing on earnings but I can't ignore econ reports which continue to be bad...not just here in the us but everywhere. Keep in mind we had a shrimking ism out of china, weak retail sales and other econ reports out of europe and pretty soft econ reports for several weeks out of us.
ReplyDeleteSSO off @ 52.93. Oh well.
ReplyDeleteFAS off @ 24.11.
ReplyDeleteMark > re MITK news...a hate to say this but whenever I hear cloud I cringe...its such a hyped term to use nowadays...doesn't mean this technology doesn't have promise but there are a lot of small caps that move from fad to fad trying to get some hype magic in their stocks...not saying this applies to mitk but my antennae go up on the cloud mention
ReplyDeleteXLE is at S2. If that doesn't hold I suspect we go much lower.
ReplyDelete3000 MITK @ 8.50.
ReplyDeleteSSO/FAS...Man, just in the nick of time. Yikes.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Yeah, me too! However, it sure seems like we are heading that way. AAPL wants to make it happen and that's a tough player to bet against.
ReplyDeleteAnother low. 1311 is up next.
ReplyDeleteYeah everything is going to the cloud but one thing is for sure there is never a shortage of johnny come latelies to every fad.
ReplyDeleteMSHL - Taking position off here...
ReplyDeleteCP- Why? :)
ReplyDeleteSVM - Hopefully they take it down and fill the gaps up prior to earnings.
ReplyDeleteOil report in a few minutes...?
Oil report...Well that didn't help.
ReplyDeleteFLIR - Never underestimate DC's arrogance towards defending defense contractor projects...
ReplyDeleteWhat I mean is, it's not unreasonable to anticipate DC will spend every last one of your dimes to defend themselves from middle eastern retribution.
ReplyDeleteI think wall street is saying g"Give Me Debt. Making shopping list. CMI great earnings. allready filling the gap! Right CP
ReplyDeleteOh joy, that was ugly! DC will make sure to adjust for maximum smoke in PM sector. Heck, they opened strategic reserves, if that's not proof they'll do anything in desperation, nothing else could be as convincing.
ReplyDeleteBAC - Returns to collision course at warp velocity?
Don't look now but IYT is breaking a long term trend line from the 2009 lows through last summer's lows.
ReplyDeleteRe the Financials, interesting that the 3 smallcap banks I own are all green on a bad day like today. they are outside the big ETF's and reported good earnings recently.
ReplyDeleteI question the value of looking at the SPY and component stocks in a time like this when the machines and big money players are all trying to game how the debt debate goes. I don't feel I can compete against that and would rather stay away with stocks I like.
redf may have found a bottom flat in this market is good.
ReplyDeleteCongratulations, TOF, on being in cash on a day like this, after being in FAS the past few days! Your intuition for daily moves is amazing...
ReplyDeleteCMI - 39,000 employees. I bet they could lay off another 10% and improve their bottom line even more.
ReplyDeleteWonder if another round of layoffs would have a positive net impact on the US banking industry?
CMI - Looks like a punctuated H&S pattern to me. Honey badger don't give a s**t about earnings.
ReplyDeleteAre we having the obligatory early morning drop to shake out the weak hands who got overhyped about the debt limit issue? A threat of something big happening is great for market manipulators, since any decline looks like the start of something big and easily scares people out of their positions...
ReplyDeleteTOF,
ReplyDeleteI could be missing something here, but I don't see the economy as being in trouble - I see it more as transitioning from being led by the Europe / North America countries to the China / resource countries.
I also see China transitioning from an economy built purely around exports to a more balance economy with more domestic demand and better services.
It is a tough transition to go through, but I think the world comes out better balanced on the other side and my goal here is to try and pick the companies that will benefit from these changes. I think the reason the US is hurting so much is because of the big focus the economy has had on financial services the last 20 years and the world demand for financial services is decreasing while the world demand for consumer products, housing, cars, energy, etc. is increasing. That is why a lot of US multinationals are doing so well.
David, yeah was thinking the same thing - seems every morning now we get a pullback which can be bought. Since you and I see it, perhaps the pattern will change, but seems playable if your inclined that way.
ReplyDeleteThe debt thing selling has not been that bad. I think it could start accelerating the longer there is no clarity about it.
ReplyDeleteBB > I agree but I'm just looking at how the market is impacted...Ultimately bad econ reports do affect the markets. Earnings reports have been solid but when coupled with bad econ reports, the willingness of people to support the market grows weaker and weaker. At this point I'm thinking I'd rather wait for econ reports to improve as confirmation first before going gung ho long. Things can change quickly though.
ReplyDeleteBTW: IYT hasn't broken support yet, but it's getting close. My earlier comment was wrong.
BB - "I don't see the economy as being in trouble"
ReplyDeleteIn terms of globally, I agree. I think it's also specific to time horizon and which economies you're referring to. It appears to me in large part, real wages in global economies are normalizing via currency rebalance. My belief is the financial services industry, via creative financing, created unsustainable currency bubbles.
David > Yeah sometimes we get lucky man. I just had the sense that all of this talk about how the markets are withstanding this debt ceiling nonsense and how stocks were the safe haven was a setup. Plus, the market attempted to rally twice from gaps down yet it failed to do so...generally speaking that sets the market up for a fall...it's kind of the reverse of last weeks action. The market would gap up, then try to sell off but close marginally higher. Then it shot up after bears finally gave up.
ReplyDeleteRB - "I think it could start accelerating the longer there is no clarity about it."
ReplyDeleteYep, I'm anticipating at least 1266 on S&P.
Not a buyer here, better deals coming soon enough.
IMAX - Strong support here, could get interesting...
If the past 2+ years is any guide, IYT should be bought right here and now if this bull market is still intact. It is right at its trend line from March 2009. The stop would only be $1 below current prices.
ReplyDeleteAUMN is down 10% already...
ReplyDeleteI spoke with an ECU rep yesterday and he said that as a part of the merger deal, AUMN has already given ECU $15M in exchange for shares at CAD$0.97. Even if the merger doesn't happen, ECU gets to keep these very much needed $15M. I suppose the AUMN shareholders are not happy about this loss of $15M. I, on the other hand, am considering once again voting against this merger, since $15M would exactly pay off ECU's long-term debt and would set it free to enjoy the ever increasing cashflow from its Velardena mines without sharing that cashflow with AUMN...
The ECU rep told me that if one of the 4 large ECU shareholders, who initially urged the CEO to sell the company or merge it with someone, changes his mind now, then ECU will likely not get the required 66% of votes. Maybe AUMN shareholders are sensing this? That would be a fun turn of events -- a bluff on the part of the large shareholders to get the $15M in cash and then a complete turnaround. :))
ReplyDeleteMy consolation prize in the form of DB puts is working out today... I would actually favor a sharp drop over the next week followed by a complete reversal, as it will allow me to close my DB puts with a nice gain...
ReplyDeleteDavid- I thought you were one of the top 4 holders, no?
ReplyDelete"I thought you were one of the top 4 holders, no?"
ReplyDeleteSounded like that was the goal for establishing the credit line purchase. Tit for tat, wouldn't it be a blast owning a majority share corporate position on someone else's dime? ;)
SVM - Okay, I had to add @ $10.66 on the July 13th gap fill, don't want to be caught with too small of position for Aug 3rd AMC earnings announcement.
ReplyDeleteWhy the next leg down?
ReplyDeleteMITK- http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-27/mitek-opens-up-image-scanning-technology-to-software-developers.html
OK, now I kinda get it.
"David- I thought you were one of the top 4 holders, no?"
ReplyDeleteI hope I am, and that my vote will make a difference. :)
AVL?
ReplyDeleteDoes it make sense the miners are getting killed?
ReplyDelete"Does it make sense the miners are getting killed?"
ReplyDeleteNo, and that's why I envy those of you with cash available to buy them...
SSO @ 51.93.
ReplyDeleteNope. Off @ 51.92.
ReplyDeleteShouldn't the TLT be rising a lot on this most recent pullback? Maybe the bond market IS saying something about our debt?
ReplyDelete1,295 should act as support for a short term bounce if this weakness gets weaker.
Man, even the tiniest pop gets smacked down.
ReplyDeleteMDW holding support here @ the 20. Pretty impressive really.
ReplyDeleteComex gold exceeded the $1628 target by $0.80, peeking at $1628.80.
ReplyDeleteAlready the gnashing of teeth has begun... Watching to see if $1604 support holds up.
Debt Crisis Index (DCI) report: (200 indicates time to hit the exits)
Yesterday, the DCI had a closing value of 116.6 slightly up from Monday's 113.5.
lost S4 s+P big flush
ReplyDeleteGMO is tempting me.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteCover you ears JB.
ReplyDeleteChannel trade for TRX?
Gold - Potential downside targets - $1604, $1530, $1468(144SMA)
ReplyDeleteGMO - Probably can anticipate an obligatory 50SMA retest?
ReplyDeleteAG - Another pretty reasonable silver play, if that kind of thing interests...
ReplyDeleteCongress - Is it true that Congress is only appropriating enough in the debt ceiling to fund their personal salary and benefits in addition to favored military contractors(assuming they're long a select list)?
ReplyDeleteGMO has a sell imbalance. Only 40K though.
ReplyDeleteBidding 4K GMO ANO @ 4.50.
ReplyDeleteSPX filling gap of 7/19, may go long some here not for the faint of heart
ReplyDeleteGMO went long
long TOT filled gap
ReplyDeleteGMO filled....Took forever.
ReplyDeleteT3D- Is that your 61K share order at the close ;).
ReplyDeletebullish sign we didn't close on the lows. :)I'm Kidding that was ugly.
ReplyDeleteTo say I'm happy to be green at the close after how things looked this am is the understatement of the year.
ReplyDeleteAKAM...and the beat goes on.
ReplyDeleteTake another buck off AKAM and I'm a buyer.
ReplyDeleteWe got our pull back in MIPS?
ReplyDeleteI didn't post this yesterday because it was such a tiny position but I did manage to buy 12 SPY $134 August puts yesterday and a whopping 1 x $134 July Put. Those are up about 65% which is nice but I only put like $3k at risk. I wish I loaded up on BGZ but oh well.
ReplyDeleteI think this pullback touches the 200 DMA and bounces up to just below the 50 DMA. If so I will close my puts at just above the 200 DMA and then I will look to either take a large short position at just below the 50 DMA or I will just wait for panic selling to commence at the 1,200 to 1,230 level, which would yield some really good bargains I think for a short term (week or so) trade.
Ha Mark I thought that was you bumping up you bid.
ReplyDeleteI generally trade $25-50K per position and usually have 5-7 positions on sometimes up to 12-15 but usually that's too many for my taste.
As I have noted before I prefer to take dollars out of the market by hitting singles and doubles. I'll leave the home runs and all in bets to the kids and those who still work for a living.
congrats on MITK
Mark - glad to hear that somebody ended the day in the green. Did you have some shorts? For me there was no place to hide, not in MUNI's, not in TECH, not in PM's, not in Healthcare. I had one green stock on my screen ending the day (PPL utility). Definitely the worst day of the year for me. Just found out that AKAM missed and is sliding after hours (fortunately did not buy this one yet). I hope Congress is watching the market action.
ReplyDeleteT3D- Thanks, but it's still not in the bank of course.
ReplyDeleteIgor- No shorts. Just got luck with a 3K share MTIK add @ 8.50 today that wiped out my FAS/SSO booked losses. Eventually I'll get burned hard I'm sure.
gmcr huge beat on the list.
ReplyDeleteThey're buying up AKAM after the dip...that one is pretty badly bruised so I doubt theres a ton more downside in the ST
ReplyDeleteumm yeah scratch that comment on AKAM
ReplyDeleteGS - Successfully retested the 50SMA
ReplyDeleteToday's Wiki-tweet: US government default good for bond and cash holders, will deny citizen entitlements, military service pay in favor of Asian debt?
ReplyDeleteNOC/FLIR/LMT, etc. - Straight to 200SMA and/or beyond, no soup for you!
PMI - Foreign real estate auction buyer standing on courthouse steps with cash in hand needs no mortgage insurance!
ReplyDeleteRIMM - Downgrade from $25 to $30?
ReplyDeleteRBY - Found a new investor.
ReplyDeleteDoug Kass twit 3hrs ago: "Gun to my head... we are in the midst of one of the better trading opportunities on the long side this year."
ReplyDeletefrom 5 hrs ago: "favorite long industry INSURANCE, favorite short industry CONSUMER/DENTAL STOCKS/short dhr pdco hsic"
Me: No sales and still 99% long and 1% cash. But today feels like a warning shot which took a toll on the port. Just a flesh wound with a little bleeding. Algo changed to sell short for both ST and IT but the IT tipping point back to bull is not much of a retracement back up the ladder. Algo is not too good for short term anyway.
RBY - Seeing $3.60 - 3.65 AH with many bids and few asks. Close was 3.21, - .23. I hold. Cheapy where are yee?
ReplyDeleteA 10% dilution is worth that action? I guess some might think it sets a floor, and maybe others thought they would run out of cash??
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