Friday, July 29, 2011

07/29/11 Twisting the knife

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/insiders-selling-at-unusually-fast-pace-2011-07-28

'In the week ending last Friday, according to the latest issue of the Vickers report, this sell-to-buy ratio stood at 6.43 to 1. This is higher than 95% of other weeks’ readings over the last decade.

'That’s ominous enough, but consider last week’s sell-to-buy ratio for just those issues listed on the NYSE or AMEX. That came in at 13.10 to 1, which is the highest reading for this ratio since when Vickers began collecting the data, which was October 1974.'


That's like getting a Dear John letter while in solitary.

88 comments:

  1. Another day - another endless conversation about debt. Doesn't seem like it's getting any closer to a resolution.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Debt debate + downward revision in GDP + insider sell/buy ratio = hunker down, bro.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I've still got valuations, earnings growth and world GDP growth on my side and think we are up 20% by the end of the year.

    Bad news makes news, but all the good things that are happening get ignored. Funny how the New York ISM which was up didn't even make it on Marketwatch this morning.

    Good article on Marketwatch recalling how it took a big market downturn to push TARP through and the same thing may happen here. Cramer has also said that both sides need a down market to get the backing to push this through.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/would-a-market-tantrum-bring-washington-to-senses-2011-07-29

    ReplyDelete
  4. Just went 100% long DECK at $91. This is sold off for no reason whatsoever.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Looking to take off DECK if it gets to $97

    ReplyDelete
  6. CTCT clawed back 15%. Crazy.

    ReplyDelete
  7. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Wow DECK! What a bounce!

    ReplyDelete
  9. Mark > I was actually entering my order for CTCT at $15 and then it just skyrocketed higher and I missed it. I was looking to enter that or DECK

    ReplyDelete
  10. TOF, a lot of stocks are selling off for no reason.

    Way to go stepping into the fear!

    ReplyDelete
  11. CTCT- Yeah, you had about 2 seconds on that one.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Makes prefect sense. Sen. Crapo on CNBC now.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Jeez this market is EXTREMELY volatile. I was going to sell DECK at $97 and it just dropped to $94...now back up...I might end up holding this thing...I think its going to $100+

    ReplyDelete
  14. RB - "I'm sure they will just have Ben pick up the bill. And why not he has picked up the bill for everyone else. Right?"

    Yep, this needs to be done IMO. The overall problem and solution appears to be currency oriented, hopefully those in cash have taken appropriate steps in advance.

    SVM - Doesn't appear the $9.22 gap's gonna fill today...

    ReplyDelete
  15. I really can't believe how similar this market is to the 1999 market. We touched the 200 DMA just like then on this drawback and now should see a pop to a bit below the 50 DMA...then a drop to the 1,230 level if the parallel holds.

    ReplyDelete
  16. tof- 100% long DECK? Right on.

    Mean green close is not out of the question, IMO.

    ReplyDelete
  17. All time highs on DECK...I doubt it's gonna stop here

    ReplyDelete
  18. t3d- It's mornings like this that led me to take my prison vows. I don't always have the discipline to ignore market noise.

    ReplyDelete
  19. BEXP - I know it's a long shot, but maybe I can buy on a retest of $25?

    Or should I pick up some BAC @ $3?

    Tough choice...

    ReplyDelete
  20. DECK - Nice looking balance sheet there, from what I see.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Holy sh*t man...look at that bounce on CTCT...if i was quick enough to get my order filled at $15 I would have had a 25% gain....wow.

    There are people that probably made their year today on that trade.

    ReplyDelete
  22. SMH and IYT breaking bad

    ReplyDelete
  23. So the reason I was focusing on CTCT and DECK is because the short interest is so high on those two stocks that if they showed any kind of turn I figured that the shorts would quickly cover...apparently in the case of CTCT they took their money and ran quickly.

    ReplyDelete
  24. CTCT - Marketing gives me the creeps... ;)

    ReplyDelete
  25. Jefferies raised its price target on Buy-rated Deckers Outdoor (NASDAQ: DECK) from $105 to $125 following Q3 results.

    The firm noted: "1) 4Q11 sales guidance appears extremely conservative and 2) 2012 EPS power looks to be at least $6.50. We would look past the weak 3Q11 guidance and buy aggressively on inherent EPS upside into 4Q11 and FY12, where our new estimates are Street high."

    The firm raised FY11 EPS from $4.60 to $4.94 and FY12 EPS from $5.70 to $6.50.

    For more ratings news on Deckers Outdoor click here and for the rating history of Deckers Outdoor click here.

    ReplyDelete
  26. SLW - BACML 12 month objective is $55

    ReplyDelete
  27. Long 15 Sept $38 JPM Calls at $3.38 average.

    ReplyDelete
  28. VIX spike to 26 from 16 and change a week ago + heavy volume = buying opportunity

    ReplyDelete
  29. GMO- Man, they are really jerking that thing around today. Got to run. Seeing if I can get out @ 4.50 for a $800 return.

    L8ter.

    ReplyDelete
  30. IMAX - I see insiders sold quite a bit recently.

    ReplyDelete
  31. S&P - If the mid June low is and inverse H&S formation, that would mean the right shoulder is nearly complete.

    How's that debt ceiling debate progressing?

    ReplyDelete
  32. GMO - Mark, I think you're gonna get your $4.50 (Jinx!)

    ReplyDelete
  33. All five $1M homes in new housing development inside beltway sold out within a week.

    I'm thinking maybe I need to buy my beachfront lot now...

    ReplyDelete
  34. wow I mean if CTCT fills the gap you're talking about a 40% move. It pays to be patient and wait for the panic. You can make years of gains in a single day if you just wait for the VIX to spike....usually a short 60%+ spike in VIX yields a really good buying opp. I know for me personally I've made the bulk of my gains this year just buying the strongest stocks after a VIX spike

    ReplyDelete
  35. I have to say the one thing that makes me not want to get gung ho short at any point: copper.

    ReplyDelete
  36. NLY tanked this morning....I never got into this thing despite the yield i think because I never could quite understand if their business model would work longer term...Why the selloff? Is it because of potential govt cutbacks? Any of you guys follow it?

    ReplyDelete
  37. NLY - Tanked at open but recovered more than half. I'm thinking its because a possible downgrade of Gov debt would raise interest rates and cut into the margin that they live on. I watch NLY but do not hold presently.

    ReplyDelete
  38. Thanks illini.

    A couple of things that make me thing this slide won't turn into a slide like back in May 2010:

    Copper > copper hasn't sold off at all. Heading into the flash crash it completely sold off.

    TEd Spread > Heading into the flash crash the TED spread was rising steadily. While it was high in June / early July, it has since cratered lower.

    ReplyDelete
  39. MITK - Sold out of my smallish position at $9.21 for a 52% gain. Just wanted to raise some cash. Yesterday I did the same for RBY and SDIX, both small profits.

    ReplyDelete
  40. Seems like volume is high, accumulation?

    ReplyDelete
  41. Illini > I followed your lead and sold my MITK 1k shs at $9.31.

    ReplyDelete
  42. Come on $100 DECK!

    ReplyDelete
  43. Wonder how the Tea Party plans on cutting the budget 40% without cutting their own throats?

    These guys need to get off their stump and let the world get on with business and Bernanke back to his program.

    ReplyDelete
  44. RBY - I think I would've taken the gain as well.

    ReplyDelete
  45. Human interest story showing how bad economy is in upper midwest unless you are in the shale oil fields of western North Dakota:

    http://rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=109258

    Rigzone is a good sight for oil & gas news.

    ReplyDelete
  46. TBT - Looks like potential entry???

    ReplyDelete
  47. This is pretty cool...
    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/07/29/us/politics/20110729-debt-matrix.html?smid=tw-nytimes

    100 bucks if anyone can find my comment!

    ReplyDelete
  48. 10,000 DECK off @ 99.24... Your on your own TOF!

    ReplyDelete
  49. "The validity of the public debt shall not be questioned."

    I certainly don't question the validity, I question the right decision process can be implemented to allow jobs creation and the debt to paid.

    ReplyDelete
  50. Well, can't say TOF didn't have 20 minutes warning... but wasn't the HOD was $98.98?!?!?

    ReplyDelete
  51. Give us a hint. Are you in the upper right corner?

    ReplyDelete
  52. Illini- Yep!... It's funny, I checked some trying to find mine and there was one that had MWB..My exact initials.

    There's also one near by that is CP!..I'm not joking :))

    ReplyDelete
  53. DECK HOD 99.38. I didn't want to cut it too close. I need that money to go out to dinner tonight.

    ReplyDelete
  54. Notice how Geitner set the drop dead date as Aug 2 and not the first? That way all the retirees get their SS "check" for the month. Ditto for Fed retirees like me.

    ReplyDelete
  55. Man, I want to try a channel trade with TRX, but it really looks to me GDX has a ways to fall.

    ReplyDelete
  56. TBT....Juuuuuust around the corner. Unreal..No really, think WTF is going on and look at T's.

    ReplyDelete
  57. GDX - I see a gap up there from $54.23, to fill on debt ceiling pass?

    ReplyDelete
  58. Looks like everyone is clearing the decks for the weekend. I'd love to be a buyer at the close, but that's just gambling, right?

    ReplyDelete
  59. SVM - If this is a July double bottom and assuming the $9.22 gap isn't destined to close, I'm looking at a double bottom target of $14...

    ReplyDelete
  60. Hey, if you think PM's take a dive on a debt pass, and considering the GDX open gaps up and an RSI that's still headed down, why not short gold?

    ReplyDelete
  61. Mark > Just to be sure was that 10,000 shs DECK? If so dinner is on you right?

    I'm still holding.

    ReplyDelete
  62. All said and done, I'm going into the close with a big ---- you to the insiders who sold last week. But that's just me.

    ReplyDelete
  63. Mark- If you went on margin for that trade, kudos!

    ReplyDelete
  64. I can't let a bunch of yahoos in Washington call my moves.

    ReplyDelete
  65. By the way, DECK had same store sales growth of 22%. I don't know of any other retailer with that kind of same store sales growth. And its trading at just over 20 times this year's earnings.

    ReplyDelete
  66. DECK - Almost sounds like a Chinese reverse merger growth story...

    What's the ticker for that liquid fertilizer company again?

    ReplyDelete
  67. Sold my DECK at $99.25. Wow what a move

    ReplyDelete
  68. If I sound a little irritated with various parties that I (fairly or unfairly) blame for recent market developments...you have it right!

    ReplyDelete
  69. 2nd - it's a freaking joke. They complain about the economy being weak yet don't understand the impact that their complete disorder has on the economy. If I'm a CEO of a big company and know this crap is going on, how could I possibly be bullish about the future and ready to take on a ton of risk? We're all traders here for the most part...I know for me I don't have the confidence to hold very many stocks for much longer than a few weeks at most.

    ReplyDelete
  70. I'm an optimist. At the same time, I'm a cynic when it comes to human nature. I try to reconcile the two as best I can.

    ReplyDelete
  71. The wife is going to be out of town this week and I think I'm going to spend a good portion of the weekend combing through the RAS earnings and conference call. I have a feeling that there is some real value in this thing that we may be missing. The company has now issued dividends twice this year and expects to do dividends on a quarterly basis going forward. Also, the dividend went from $0.04 in January to $0.06 in June...that tells me they might be getting more value out of their business than the public thinks.

    ReplyDelete
  72. I just turned on CNBC to see what they were talking about and they have this show called Options Action. The guy on the show said, and I quote: "This is why you need to be an owner of options on a day like this. Because it limits your downside." WTF is this guy kidding? Let's say you thought the market was going to bounce back up because pretty much every indicator was saying the market is oversold. Then you open up to a big selloff. Your options could be down 50% or 75%. Meanwhile if you held stock it would be down what...1.5%? Granted you do it in size but what the hell are they trying to sell to the public? Options are pretty much universally known to be a great destroyer of wealth.

    ReplyDelete
  73. Boy a lot of BIG DUMB UGLY shoe experts. Awesome trades boys!

    ReplyDelete
  74. Oops, the beach house I was considering is under contract...

    ReplyDelete
  75. Is Boehner still attempting to bone senior citizens in his bill?

    ReplyDelete
  76. 51% of restaurant owners say that business has improved yoy.

    ReplyDelete
  77. BWA - Another impressive earnings, based on the reaction.

    ReplyDelete
  78. http://investor.constantcontact.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=595098

    Sorry but does that really warrant a 9% sell off in CTCT (which was at one point down 30%)? I really need to dig into this and RAS because I think there are some really good long term opportunities here...

    ReplyDelete