http://www.marketwatch.com/story/insiders-selling-at-unusually-fast-pace-2011-07-28
'In the week ending last Friday, according to the latest issue of the Vickers report, this sell-to-buy ratio stood at 6.43 to 1. This is higher than 95% of other weeks’ readings over the last decade.
'That’s ominous enough, but consider last week’s sell-to-buy ratio for just those issues listed on the NYSE or AMEX. That came in at 13.10 to 1, which is the highest reading for this ratio since when Vickers began collecting the data, which was October 1974.'
That's like getting a Dear John letter while in solitary.
Another day - another endless conversation about debt. Doesn't seem like it's getting any closer to a resolution.
ReplyDeleteDebt debate + downward revision in GDP + insider sell/buy ratio = hunker down, bro.
ReplyDeleteCTCT- Down 30%.
ReplyDeleteRight at the 200.
ReplyDelete4000 GMO @ 4.26.
ReplyDeleteI've still got valuations, earnings growth and world GDP growth on my side and think we are up 20% by the end of the year.
ReplyDeleteBad news makes news, but all the good things that are happening get ignored. Funny how the New York ISM which was up didn't even make it on Marketwatch this morning.
Good article on Marketwatch recalling how it took a big market downturn to push TARP through and the same thing may happen here. Cramer has also said that both sides need a down market to get the backing to push this through.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/would-a-market-tantrum-bring-washington-to-senses-2011-07-29
Just went 100% long DECK at $91. This is sold off for no reason whatsoever.
ReplyDeleteLooking to take off DECK if it gets to $97
ReplyDeleteCTCT clawed back 15%. Crazy.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteTOT- Nice!
ReplyDeleteAKS green and X about to.
ReplyDeleteWow DECK! What a bounce!
ReplyDeleteMark > I was actually entering my order for CTCT at $15 and then it just skyrocketed higher and I missed it. I was looking to enter that or DECK
ReplyDeleteTOF, a lot of stocks are selling off for no reason.
ReplyDeleteWay to go stepping into the fear!
CTCT- Yeah, you had about 2 seconds on that one.
ReplyDeleteMakes prefect sense. Sen. Crapo on CNBC now.
ReplyDeleteJeez this market is EXTREMELY volatile. I was going to sell DECK at $97 and it just dropped to $94...now back up...I might end up holding this thing...I think its going to $100+
ReplyDeleteRB - "I'm sure they will just have Ben pick up the bill. And why not he has picked up the bill for everyone else. Right?"
ReplyDeleteYep, this needs to be done IMO. The overall problem and solution appears to be currency oriented, hopefully those in cash have taken appropriate steps in advance.
SVM - Doesn't appear the $9.22 gap's gonna fill today...
I really can't believe how similar this market is to the 1999 market. We touched the 200 DMA just like then on this drawback and now should see a pop to a bit below the 50 DMA...then a drop to the 1,230 level if the parallel holds.
ReplyDeletetof- 100% long DECK? Right on.
ReplyDeleteMean green close is not out of the question, IMO.
All time highs on DECK...I doubt it's gonna stop here
ReplyDeletet3d- It's mornings like this that led me to take my prison vows. I don't always have the discipline to ignore market noise.
ReplyDeleteBEXP - I know it's a long shot, but maybe I can buy on a retest of $25?
ReplyDeleteOr should I pick up some BAC @ $3?
Tough choice...
DECK - Nice looking balance sheet there, from what I see.
ReplyDeleteHoly sh*t man...look at that bounce on CTCT...if i was quick enough to get my order filled at $15 I would have had a 25% gain....wow.
ReplyDeleteThere are people that probably made their year today on that trade.
SMH and IYT breaking bad
ReplyDeleteSo the reason I was focusing on CTCT and DECK is because the short interest is so high on those two stocks that if they showed any kind of turn I figured that the shorts would quickly cover...apparently in the case of CTCT they took their money and ran quickly.
ReplyDeleteCTCT - Marketing gives me the creeps... ;)
ReplyDeleteJefferies raised its price target on Buy-rated Deckers Outdoor (NASDAQ: DECK) from $105 to $125 following Q3 results.
ReplyDeleteThe firm noted: "1) 4Q11 sales guidance appears extremely conservative and 2) 2012 EPS power looks to be at least $6.50. We would look past the weak 3Q11 guidance and buy aggressively on inherent EPS upside into 4Q11 and FY12, where our new estimates are Street high."
The firm raised FY11 EPS from $4.60 to $4.94 and FY12 EPS from $5.70 to $6.50.
For more ratings news on Deckers Outdoor click here and for the rating history of Deckers Outdoor click here.
MTW - Gap up has filled.
ReplyDeleteSLW - BACML 12 month objective is $55
ReplyDeleteLong 15 Sept $38 JPM Calls at $3.38 average.
ReplyDeleteVIX spike to 26 from 16 and change a week ago + heavy volume = buying opportunity
ReplyDeleteGMO- Man, they are really jerking that thing around today. Got to run. Seeing if I can get out @ 4.50 for a $800 return.
ReplyDeleteL8ter.
IMAX - I see insiders sold quite a bit recently.
ReplyDeleteS&P - If the mid June low is and inverse H&S formation, that would mean the right shoulder is nearly complete.
ReplyDeleteHow's that debt ceiling debate progressing?
GMO - Mark, I think you're gonna get your $4.50 (Jinx!)
ReplyDeleteAll five $1M homes in new housing development inside beltway sold out within a week.
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking maybe I need to buy my beachfront lot now...
wow I mean if CTCT fills the gap you're talking about a 40% move. It pays to be patient and wait for the panic. You can make years of gains in a single day if you just wait for the VIX to spike....usually a short 60%+ spike in VIX yields a really good buying opp. I know for me personally I've made the bulk of my gains this year just buying the strongest stocks after a VIX spike
ReplyDeleteI have to say the one thing that makes me not want to get gung ho short at any point: copper.
ReplyDeleteNLY tanked this morning....I never got into this thing despite the yield i think because I never could quite understand if their business model would work longer term...Why the selloff? Is it because of potential govt cutbacks? Any of you guys follow it?
ReplyDeleteNLY - Tanked at open but recovered more than half. I'm thinking its because a possible downgrade of Gov debt would raise interest rates and cut into the margin that they live on. I watch NLY but do not hold presently.
ReplyDeleteThanks illini.
ReplyDeleteA couple of things that make me thing this slide won't turn into a slide like back in May 2010:
Copper > copper hasn't sold off at all. Heading into the flash crash it completely sold off.
TEd Spread > Heading into the flash crash the TED spread was rising steadily. While it was high in June / early July, it has since cratered lower.
MITK - Sold out of my smallish position at $9.21 for a 52% gain. Just wanted to raise some cash. Yesterday I did the same for RBY and SDIX, both small profits.
ReplyDeleteSeems like volume is high, accumulation?
ReplyDeleteIllini > I followed your lead and sold my MITK 1k shs at $9.31.
ReplyDeleteCome on $100 DECK!
ReplyDeleteWonder how the Tea Party plans on cutting the budget 40% without cutting their own throats?
ReplyDeleteThese guys need to get off their stump and let the world get on with business and Bernanke back to his program.
RBY - I think I would've taken the gain as well.
ReplyDeleteHuman interest story showing how bad economy is in upper midwest unless you are in the shale oil fields of western North Dakota:
ReplyDeletehttp://rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=109258
Rigzone is a good sight for oil & gas news.
TBT - Looks like potential entry???
ReplyDelete10,000 DECK @ 98.24.
ReplyDeleteThis is pretty cool...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/07/29/us/politics/20110729-debt-matrix.html?smid=tw-nytimes
100 bucks if anyone can find my comment!
10,000 DECK off @ 99.24... Your on your own TOF!
ReplyDelete"The validity of the public debt shall not be questioned."
ReplyDeleteI certainly don't question the validity, I question the right decision process can be implemented to allow jobs creation and the debt to paid.
Well, can't say TOF didn't have 20 minutes warning... but wasn't the HOD was $98.98?!?!?
ReplyDeleteGive us a hint. Are you in the upper right corner?
ReplyDeleteIllini- Yep!... It's funny, I checked some trying to find mine and there was one that had MWB..My exact initials.
ReplyDeleteThere's also one near by that is CP!..I'm not joking :))
DECK HOD 99.38. I didn't want to cut it too close. I need that money to go out to dinner tonight.
ReplyDeleteNotice how Geitner set the drop dead date as Aug 2 and not the first? That way all the retirees get their SS "check" for the month. Ditto for Fed retirees like me.
ReplyDeleteMan, I want to try a channel trade with TRX, but it really looks to me GDX has a ways to fall.
ReplyDeleteTBT....Juuuuuust around the corner. Unreal..No really, think WTF is going on and look at T's.
ReplyDeleteGDX - I see a gap up there from $54.23, to fill on debt ceiling pass?
ReplyDeleteLooks like everyone is clearing the decks for the weekend. I'd love to be a buyer at the close, but that's just gambling, right?
ReplyDeleteGDX- That's my thought CP.
ReplyDeleteSVM - If this is a July double bottom and assuming the $9.22 gap isn't destined to close, I'm looking at a double bottom target of $14...
ReplyDeleteHey, if you think PM's take a dive on a debt pass, and considering the GDX open gaps up and an RSI that's still headed down, why not short gold?
ReplyDeleteMark > Just to be sure was that 10,000 shs DECK? If so dinner is on you right?
ReplyDeleteI'm still holding.
All said and done, I'm going into the close with a big ---- you to the insiders who sold last week. But that's just me.
ReplyDeleteMark- If you went on margin for that trade, kudos!
ReplyDeleteI can't let a bunch of yahoos in Washington call my moves.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, DECK had same store sales growth of 22%. I don't know of any other retailer with that kind of same store sales growth. And its trading at just over 20 times this year's earnings.
ReplyDeleteDECK - Almost sounds like a Chinese reverse merger growth story...
ReplyDeleteWhat's the ticker for that liquid fertilizer company again?
I think it's S-H-I-T.
ReplyDeleteSold my DECK at $99.25. Wow what a move
ReplyDeleteIf I sound a little irritated with various parties that I (fairly or unfairly) blame for recent market developments...you have it right!
ReplyDelete2nd - it's a freaking joke. They complain about the economy being weak yet don't understand the impact that their complete disorder has on the economy. If I'm a CEO of a big company and know this crap is going on, how could I possibly be bullish about the future and ready to take on a ton of risk? We're all traders here for the most part...I know for me I don't have the confidence to hold very many stocks for much longer than a few weeks at most.
ReplyDeleteI'm an optimist. At the same time, I'm a cynic when it comes to human nature. I try to reconcile the two as best I can.
ReplyDeleteThe wife is going to be out of town this week and I think I'm going to spend a good portion of the weekend combing through the RAS earnings and conference call. I have a feeling that there is some real value in this thing that we may be missing. The company has now issued dividends twice this year and expects to do dividends on a quarterly basis going forward. Also, the dividend went from $0.04 in January to $0.06 in June...that tells me they might be getting more value out of their business than the public thinks.
ReplyDeleteI just turned on CNBC to see what they were talking about and they have this show called Options Action. The guy on the show said, and I quote: "This is why you need to be an owner of options on a day like this. Because it limits your downside." WTF is this guy kidding? Let's say you thought the market was going to bounce back up because pretty much every indicator was saying the market is oversold. Then you open up to a big selloff. Your options could be down 50% or 75%. Meanwhile if you held stock it would be down what...1.5%? Granted you do it in size but what the hell are they trying to sell to the public? Options are pretty much universally known to be a great destroyer of wealth.
ReplyDeleteBoy a lot of BIG DUMB UGLY shoe experts. Awesome trades boys!
ReplyDeleteOops, the beach house I was considering is under contract...
ReplyDeleteIs Boehner still attempting to bone senior citizens in his bill?
ReplyDelete51% of restaurant owners say that business has improved yoy.
ReplyDeleteBWA - Another impressive earnings, based on the reaction.
ReplyDeletehttp://investor.constantcontact.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=595098
ReplyDeleteSorry but does that really warrant a 9% sell off in CTCT (which was at one point down 30%)? I really need to dig into this and RAS because I think there are some really good long term opportunities here...
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