Thursday, July 28, 2011

07/29/11 Why the market's selling off



Here we come, walking
Down the street
We get the funniest looks from
Every one we meet
Hey, hey, we're the Senate
And people say we monkey around
Yeah, we're too busy drinking
To get legislation done

44 comments:

  1. Listening to KCBS on the way home, I heard the best idea yet-

    Round up a few top guns (aka the guys who will be funding their next election campaigns), and slap some sense into these jokers.

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  2. I have faith in human nature, however. I believe what's playing out right now is exactly what big money wants on the screen. A deadlock. The nod to break the deadlock will come soon enough.

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  3. Shake, rattle and roll, bro. Rattle nerves a few more days, shake investors out of their positions, then rock this market up with an unexpected agreement to...raise the freaking debt ceiling.

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  4. Not a trace of doubt in my mind.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XfuBREMXxts

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  5. We know they can get the job, but can they do the job?

    To be concluded...

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  6. Damn, those guys look like kids. For some reason my memories have them much older.

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  7. cp- I honestly believe they do what they're told. That's why they were allowed to win their respective elections ;)

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  8. Right now they're being asked to deadlock. When the time comes, they'll be asked to agree. What a freaking farce.

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  9. I'm pretty sure they do as they're told as well, it's the only explanation fro why they do what they do.

    It's tense times like these where revelations appear through the cracks, they cannot fully cover their tracks (as in needle marks).

    Stuart Drives A Comfortable Car (There's Usually Someone In The Trunk)

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  10. The farce part is that some how this agreement is going to decrease the debt without raising taxes? Print some money already this bullshit is ruining all my charts! WTF
    Bob

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  11. rb- What if ultimately we're all just charting bullshit? Bullshit can't really ruin a chart that displays bullshit. That's bullshit!

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  12. Exactly, go ahead and print some more, we're quickly slipping back into a hole here. Print enough to break the stranglehold of the Yuan peg and we have to start manufacturing our own lead painted toys. Note that the BDI is still in the crapper, I think it could stay there for a decade.

    So I guess we'll have to wait until the plan is enacted before we discover who their master is.

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  13. Wholly cow 2nd...that's really deep in... :)

    RB- STEC's chart is still intact.

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  14. 2nd - My chart shows a double top target of 1266 on this formation, let's monitor that and see if the chart comes close or not...

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  15. If it aint mobile, it aint happening.

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  16. I've also got a $1776 target on gold I'm gonna spring on you guys in a few weeks or months.

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  17. SGEN- For the love of Mike, this is getting depressing. WTH has been going on behind my back? I'm afraid to look at another chart.

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  18. NANO - That's one we should dig into in preparation for a reload.

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  19. Yeah, well I've got 1492, 1776, 1812, 1969, and 2020 targets for the SPX.

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  20. CP- I don't get the 1266 area.

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  21. I'll be celebrating each target with 375 mL of 120 proof you-know-what.

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  22. Nadurra?

    Looks like CTCT's earnings were met with more selling...I might have to dip my toes in this one...while I really like MITK I'm afraid it might drop quite a bit at any point. Just about every chart I'm looking at is signaling more weakness ahead. IYT is a big problem in my mind...but so too are the charts of CAT, GE, AA, DOW, SMH is right at support...several leading momo stocks are looking weak. Man I'd love to see a panic VIX spike to 27 to 30...if that happens i will be buying across the board. Not sure exactly what to buy yet tho. My main concern is that the entire world seems to be slowing down right now so I wouldn't be shocked if we just creep lower to the low 1,200's level.

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  23. perhaps the wicker wonder should be bought. there's a gap down around the 10.5 level that looks like a good entry. this one has been a great trading stock...buy when the market panics and it has a big drop of $1 or so and you almost always can sell at a 15% gain in a couple of weeks.

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  24. July Double top target I figure is 1345(the top) - 1305(the low) - 1305 = 1265

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  25. I am targeting 420 as the kids say.

    explanation:http://urbanlegends.about.com/b/2011/04/19/420-meaning.htm

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  26. Cramer had a gush piece on PIR last week. probably ruined the mojo.

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  27. TOF- Sure seems like everyone is guiding lower lately.

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  28. MILL... http://seekingalpha.com/article/282825-miller-energy-this-hot-alaska-stock-may-be-about-to-melt-part-1

    That's it, no more. I'm going to have nightmares.

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  29. That is, it's the distance from top to bottom(1345 - 1395 = 40), subtracted from the bottom(1305), which gives 1265.

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  30. Correction:

    That is, it's the distance from top to bottom(1345 - 1305 = 40), subtracted from the bottom(1305), which gives 1265.

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  31. Okay now that we know what a 420 is, what's a 71?

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  32. CP- OK, thanks. I've never seen that done that way. Kinda an inverse measured move?

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  33. http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/debt-ceiling-debt-ceiling-vote-debt/7/28/2011/id/36008

    James K explains exactly what I'm thinking in my head. If we have to go through the nonsense of dealing with this debt ceiling in the next 6 months we ain't going nowhere. People are completely fed up with this government and as a result the momentum is just seeping out of this market. That's why I think a stock like MITK could be susceptible to a mini crash.

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  34. Exactly, and it's rather curious that it yields the same area as the June low, by coincidence.

    Anyway, here's a description:

    http://cjrs.ca/chart-2.html

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  35. http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/stocks-stock-market-daily-recap-major/7/28/2011/id/36009

    This guy seems to be expecting some decent downside as well...all of that insane volume in SPY puts I saw a few days ago appears to have been smart money.

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  36. RSI(7) I've got as 33.62, so we haven't bottomed yet according to this indicator.

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  37. RSI(7) maxed at over 80 on July 7th, the second peak seems commonplace and a great exit if you weren't able to catch the first one.

    I think we should trust the charts more, they seem to work if you know how to read them well enough to trust your interpretation.

    Someone posted a chart showing the May peak as the head on an H&S pattern, I thought that was interesting perspective but it seems time has run out on that one unless it's the selling we're observing now. The one feature I appreciated about that formation was the positively sloped neckline.

    So I'm gonna wait till 1265 and see what happens before thinking about adding or taking on new equity positions outside of PM's.

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  38. When we are this bearish on the board we rally right? 2nd? 71=69 +2.

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  39. TOF- Puts... Kinda a funny point. My current client knows I trade. Today he asked me am I protecting my positions. (puts). He said 2 of the hedge funds he deals with bought a shit load of protection.

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  40. Wonder why we cannot settle the debt ceiling issue, is it because we have passed the point of no return?

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  41. "is it because we have passed the point of no return?"
    It is not a real ceiling, but an abstract concept. I'm sure they will just have Ben pick up the bill. And why not he has picked up the bill for everyone else. Right?

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