MBAC Fertilizer Corp. (OTCQX:MBCFF) is pleased to announce that it has commenced trading on the OTCQX International in the United States, the premium tier of the U.S. Over-the-Counter (OTC) marketplace) which is the largest electronic marketplace for broker-dealers to trade unlisted stocks. Investors can find current financial disclosure and Real-Time Level 2 quotes for the Company on www.otcqx.com and www.otcmarkets.com.
This is an up and coming fertilizer producer located in Brazil very close to the main agricultural region. There big advantage is lower transportation costs compared to the imports. Also, there is discussion of government legislation in Brazil to help grow this industry.
They have a small producing mine now, just recently increased their reserves with drilling completion and have government approval for construction and are ordering equipment. They also have other sites which may provide increased value.
It was founded by the Chairman of Yamana Gold and has a good management team.
It's net asset value using a 10% discount rate is $4.34 based on $275 SSP pricing and SSP is currently selling for $375 a tonne in the region with no value for these additional sites.
Planned production is for 500,000t in mid-2012 and doubling this over a few years.
It's an execution story at this time and all the risks around getting a plant up and running are in play, but there is a big enough spread between stock price and value to absorb some of these, so I feel confident owning.
My first thought is this is only natural to have a back test...we had a nasty drop and there are lots of signs of weakness...it would be very unnatural for the market to just reverse and gap higher, especially with the jobs report ahead of us.
No one is expecting a good report tomorrow, especially with today's drop. However, jobless claims over the past several weeks suggest a decent report tomorrow, at least better than last month: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3063-economicCalendar.html?mod=mdc_h_cmgrel
last 1/2 off 55...two bad I only traded 2 cars, but I'll tell you it is HARD to trade without having an income, 90%+ of the time I pass on trades just because I nut up
It's all good, guys. A lot of pent-up anxiety, apparently- the selling will end at some point, and we just get on with it.
I've found recently it helps to consider the port an asset much like my home. It would be insane to track the market price of my home twice daily on Zillow.
"In the report, Sterne Agee wrote, "THE WORST HASS PASSED - 2Q MISS SHOULD CLEAR THE DECK The Good, The Bad and the Ugly? While Quarterly #s Miss Expectations, Positive Catalysts Around the Corner. Shares Should Find a Bottom Here. WNC's 2Q EPS release will concern some on the headline data, but beneath the release, events are lining up for the company to resume its growth curve later this year, and the news for 2012 and beyond has improved."
Sterne Agee rated Wabash National Corporation a BUY with a price target of $16.00.
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Billionaire investor Bruce Berkowitz and his Fairholme Capital Management will grill Bank of America Corp. (BAC) Chief Executive Brian Moynihan in an upcoming conference call, Fairholme said Wednesday. According to a press release from Fairholme, the investor will host an hour-and-a-half conference call with Moynihan on Aug. 10, where "skeptics are welcome" and Berkowitz will "ask the toughest questions" submitted by participants. The release said the call is meant to "better understand how Bank of America is navigating the economic environment." It comes as the bank's stock has plunged this year and Moynihan has appeared to be unable to quell many investor doubts. A spokesman for Bank of America wasn't immediately available for comment. Bank of America shares slipped 1.2% to $9.43 in premarket trading. Fairholme holds about 92.7 million shares in Bank of America, or about 0.9% of the company, according to FactSet Research. The mutual-fund manager, and occasional activist investor, is the 12th largest holder in the nation's biggest bank by assets. The bank is the fund's sixth largest holding. Fairholme said in the release that the fund believes Bank of America will generate enough capital to meet new global standards, a position Moynihan has strongly reiterated but which investors have doubted on occasion. The release also said Fairholme believes Bank of America's management can put its legacy issues behind it and return capital to shareholders. Bank of America has found its stock under pressure for much of the year, with shares now down 28% and trading at lows not seen since April 2009. The fall, and questions from investors, have come as the bank has taken multiple large charges to try and settle mortgage issues acquired along with home-lender Countrywide Financial in July 2008. Capital has also been a key concern for investors since the Federal Reserve denied the bank's request to raise its dividend earlier this year. The bank and Moynihan have been adamant that capital is not a concern, but Moynihan's pledge to "modestly" boost the penny-a-share payout in the second half of 2011 looks unlikely now.
They are an airplane leasing company based in Ireland. Trade at 63% of book value (which is likely understated based on recent aircraft sales), pay a 7% dividend and have done an excellent job of managing capital by doing things like buying back debt at $0.50 on the dollar over the last few years and buying back share when they were cheap.
Stock has pulled back from $14.50 range to under $12 and last night announced major acquisition to almost double airplanes on lease. Paying $150 million out of cash, plus taking on additional non-recourse debt to fund total purchase of $1.4 billion. grows revenue by 80% and will increase earnings and cash flow.
Have a medium size position in this, but I think it is good value here with a good income stream and upside potential.
Anyone else getting a little uncomfortable? I didn't even realize it because it was such a small position but my BTU got stopped out at $51.50 this morning....coal stocks are getting a major beat down.
For what it's worth, I vividly remember all of us talking on the CC blog in November 2008 about SLW. I remember debating when it should be a buy and I posted about how it was not good that it made a lower low than the month before at $2.51....yep, because it closed about $0.05 lower than the prior low in October I think, I came to the conclusion that it wasn't a buy.
Just to reiterate, that was at $2.51. So when we say that we just took out yesterday's lows and that's the reason we're selling, it doesn't always mean its the right thing to do.
One of these bounces will be real - just might not be today.
We have an undercut low on the SPY with high volume and likely a lot of traders throwing in the towel. If it holds, these tend to be strong bottoms in my experience.
Also another for what it's worth, we just hit the highs from November 2010 that were resistance. This is also a resistance area from May 2010. I wouldn't be surprised if that is where big buyers come in...
BREAKING NEWS: A French criminal court said Thursday it is in favor of launching a probe into an accusation that International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde was complicit in the misuse of public funds in 2008, when she was France's finance minister.
Surprisingly I'm actually up $800 on all of my buys from yesterday...however, the correct play was what David and I talked about, but obviously we were too stubborn and went against our trade...that was to watch support get taken out, then buy when the market comes back above support. That's the smart way to trade a free falling market.
'Ugly' is in the eye of the beholder, bro. From a buy-and-hold perspective, this is remodeling- a temporary inconvenience in the interest of adding future value.
I tell ya what I was originally thinking we would get to the 1,230 level then bounce. If today's low holds then I could see a scenario where this is THE low for the rest of the year.
Guys! What have you done to the markets while I was asleep! This ain't pretty. Remembering the experience of October 2008, I just sold at $0.79 the 10 August SPY $127 calls I purchased yesterday at $1.29 for a $500 loss (yes, 2nd_ave, it WAS a good idea to take profits EOD yesterday when they were selling for $1.92), sold at $1.76 the 5 SPY September $127 calls I purchased yesterday at $2.38 for a $300 loss, and also sold my 6 $25 VXX puts at $2.14 that I purchased yesterday at $3.40 for a $750 loss. Looks like the market direction is down now, and it is silly to hold out-of-the-money options AGAINST the trend (it is much better to hold OTM options in the direction of the trend)...
I might reload my call options today if the market reverses now (making a double bottom) and then rises above the midpoint between the two bottoms -- $1230 on S&P...
Taking advantage of the panic and bought some shares in a small restaurant chain on the Toronto exchange that was down 20% from yesterday.
They are more on the low to mid scale and I don't think bond issues in Europe are going to keep people from their pizza and burgers and with the potential for lower gas prices, revenues could even go up this year.
It's about a -10% pullback from the highs of the years right now. It may correct -20%. -25%. As long as you're diversified and in it for the long haul (that would not be you, David), I don't see a problem.
"Do ya think Ben's gonna take revenge on the world and raise rates, or is the market simply agreeing with the rumors hinting at QE floated yesterday?"
I think the market is concerned that the Fed can't do much in this situation, only some small cosmetic changes. They cannot expand their balance sheet by another few trillion dollars.
"It's about a -10% pullback from the highs of the years right now. It may correct -20%. -25%. As long as you're diversified and in it for the long haul (that would not be you, David), I don't see a problem."
2nd_ave, those who are well-diversified will suffer a 25% pullback over the next year if the whole market pulls back 25%. ECU, on the other hand, can be up over the next year if they do triple their revenue in 4Q relative to 1Q.
WPRT -> $19? Perhaps we'll know when the bottom's getting close the day WPRT closes the open gap up?
Then again today's only Thursday and the FED hasn't offered up their bi-quarterly sacrifice to the market gods. Don't they at least need a weekend to mull things over, light a few candles, and perform a ritual dance?
Just made another trade where I swapped out 1 class of share for another (again on the TSX) for a small profit. This is a nice way to make some quick cash with very little risk and only becomes available when people are panicking, so I'm happy to facilitate their fear.
If this isn't a short term bottom then I will be absolutely shocked. Seriously. SPY volume is at yesterday's volume and we haven't even gone through the last hour where a good chunk of the volume usually comes. We could see a 450 to 500 Million share day, which is the same as the panic low in March.
Man, I am already glad I sold my SPY call options as soon as I woke up. That's what I learned after the 2008 crash -- taking losses quickly and not being stubborn. I took a risk with buying those calls, risk didn't pay off, so I exit -- end of story.
Only one of my stocks is being weird today -- SORL is up 3.33%. I guess it was sold down SO FAR over the past year, that it's price movements are totally random now and do not depend on the world's economy...
SORL is up 3.74% already. :) Those black box algos must be really confused today, looking desperately for stocks they should buy so as to balance all the stocks they are selling and remain market-neutral. They couldn't find any better stock to go long than SORL! :))
David - Are we heading into a 2008 scenario? I'm pretty sure everyone and their mother has prepared for such a scenario, as evidenced by the refusal to hire people, the hoarding of cash by companies, the hoarding of gold, and the excessive pessimism everywhere. To me this this is nothing more than a run of the mill pullback, albeit a painful one.
Time to remember Hussman, isn't it? THAT'S why he was totally hedged for a long time, and THAT'S why the only way to fairly evaluate his approach is over a complete bull-bear cycle, as opposed to just focusing on how much he lags during the bull cycle. Hussman was saying that overvalued markets can have vertical drops until they reach the point where value investors step in. I think all value investors agreed recently that the fair value for S&P was 1000, right? So how about a vertical slide down to 1000?
Wouldn't surprise me if the job earnings are "better than expected" tomorrow and we get a big bounce - maybe even 2nd's 200 point gap up. Not willing to buy into the close on this though.
Don't think this was a start of a 2008 type market either. Something like that has to be unexpected and would be very unlikely to occur twice in 2 years.
David - Unfortunately, yes I'm still holding. Down $3,800 on those. All told I'm down $15k from my purchases yesterday, or about 4%. I unfortunately am not panicking on anything I hold, although I did get stopped out of BTU (smartly) at $51.5.
This marks the 2nd year in a row where I have seen a major top, got conservative, went to cash, waited for a drop, then bought a day before the crash. Impeccable timing. David - we talked ourselves into the idea of waiting for the market to break support and then come back to it again before buying....with last year's experience in mind, we should probably ask why we're so stubborn as to ignore something we thought through rationally.
However, if this year is anything like last year, then holding here is the right move to make.
I've been working on that "Easy Button" thing, just need to put the finishing touches on it (involves a long-distance listening device placed in a strategic location). ;)
TOF, we marked $1250 as support yesterday, and S&P did close above $1250 yesterday. So a the correct move, from the TA point of view, would have been to buy S&P when it turned green yesterday at $1255. We got a little lucky in that we bought our calls when S&P was $1245, and thus didn't lose as much money on them today as we could have...
What was the warning sign for us in September 2008? The congress/senate passed "the bailout" bill, but the market still collapsed. This time, the congress/senate passed the debt ceiling increase, but the market still collapsed. It is the reaction to the news that gives out the true market character...
On the other hand, if we have a big down day tomorrow, then I would imagine the Fed would have an emergency meeting over the weekend and announce some measures, so taking another shot at buying on Friday EOD might be a good idea, with the exit strategy of closing positions early on Monday if nothing positive is said over the weekend.
David - Volume on SPY today was 498 Million. The last day we had a volume day like this was the Flash Crash I believe, which was just pure panic. Today felt a lot like that, but more orderly. I suspect (hope) we will get a chance to sell at SPY 126 again (i.e., yesterday's close) shortly, which is why I decided to keep the calls. Also, a retest of the 200 DMA level from underneath wouldn't be out of the question.
you're right, our timing on the purchases of those eases the decision making a bit...now if we get a follow through day tomorrow then I'm not quite sure what I will end up doing.
Carnage, pure and simple. And where did the tornado hit hardest? Why it was in the upper class neighborhoods of miners and oil barons. Or at least on the fringes of their best homes.
Silver - I think they took it up a bit yesterday (or should I say allowed it to rise) in order to suck in newcomers.
They absolutely couldn't allow the breakout to continue, so it was quite obvious from the chart a smackdown was in order.
Anyway, was today a failure to capitulate? There are probably a few out there setting the market sell orders now and considering the circumstances, I have to respect the TA target of 1150 on the H&S formation, as Kyle posted earlier.
Just got this note from my friend who is the mortgage broker from BofA:
"Hey Guys,
I wanted to let you know that Mortgage interest rates are the lowest I've ever seen. With the market taking a huge plunge this week and the huge sell off today, they are rock bottom. I'm calling all my past clients as it's a feeding frenzy in the office right now.
If your parents, family, or other coworkers have a mortgage over 5.0% they should strongly consider refinancing. Par rate on a 30 year fixed with no points is at 4.375%. I just wanted to put the word out, and give me a call with any questions."
I get news feeds from the Dow Jones Newswire and one thing I definitely have noticed today is a bunch of CEO/Officer insider buying notices today which I haven't seen in a while, for what it's worth...
The S&P 500 average correction is 13 percent, Birinyi said today, citing his Westport, Connecticut-based firm’s research on bull markets back to 1962. While the drop this week surprised him, he said the decline in “marginal stocks” hasn’t concerned him. Should companies such as Priceline, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) and Google start to fall, Birinyi said he would reevaluate.
“If really the strength in the market starts to falter, that would trouble me greatly,” he said.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
As luck would have it PCLN reported after the bell today and the stock is up over 10% after hours so I think Birinyi can sleep well for now.
We're now down 12% from the highs and 8.4% from the highs of 3 days ago. The reason I didn't panic and sell my calls today, David, is after I stepped outside to console myself, I thought about what I would have done if I was in cash right now. The answer is I would be buying for a bounce to the 200 DMA. So why would I sell and move to cash if instead I was lucky enough to be in cash and would be buying here?
T's - Must be short covering and front running Japan/Switzerland, etc.?
Funny though, buying T's seems like a dead end road if we're not experiencing an economic collapse(perhaps someone else is?), these super low rates should make PM's more attractive(Perhaps not as attractive as some form of debt in the world paying high rates?)
That's what I mean. Can you imagine surfing the web one night, and letting some James K dude 'talk' you into shorting TLT in early July?
ReplyDeleteStick to the plan, Stan.
Damn this guy is one helluva guitar player. I can't believe I've never heard of him. Here's another one...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XXYjEMTQRm0
Nice. He kind of looks like an older version of Mark Wahlberg in that one.
ReplyDeleteIn case anyone is interested:
ReplyDeleteMBAC Fertilizer Corp. (OTCQX:MBCFF) is pleased to announce that it has commenced trading on the OTCQX International in the United States, the premium tier of the U.S. Over-the-Counter (OTC) marketplace) which is the largest electronic marketplace for broker-dealers to trade unlisted stocks.
Investors can find current financial disclosure and Real-Time Level 2 quotes for the Company on www.otcqx.com and www.otcmarkets.com.
This is an up and coming fertilizer producer located in Brazil very close to the main agricultural region. There big advantage is lower transportation costs compared to the imports. Also, there is discussion of government legislation in Brazil to help grow this industry.
They have a small producing mine now, just recently increased their reserves with drilling completion and have government approval for construction and are ordering equipment. They also have other sites which may provide increased value.
It was founded by the Chairman of Yamana Gold and has a good management team.
It's net asset value using a 10% discount rate is $4.34 based on $275 SSP pricing and SSP is currently selling for $375 a tonne in the region with no value for these additional sites.
Planned production is for 500,000t in mid-2012 and doubling this over a few years.
It's an execution story at this time and all the risks around getting a plant up and running are in play, but there is a big enough spread between stock price and value to absorb some of these, so I feel confident owning.
Here's to a 12k open on the DJIA. See you then.
ReplyDeleteI'll toast to that 2nd.
ReplyDeleteWhat was the Challenger # tonight?
ReplyDeleteMITK getting some attention on Twits.
2nd/TOF- You guys are doomed...
ReplyDeleteDougKass Douglas Kass
Futures up another eight after close. As I mentioned yesterday I am inclined to think this AM's dip was a tradeable bottom.
Well I was hoping I'd be able to add that last tranch to SVM but that isn't likely unless PM's take a dive.
ReplyDeleteCoulda' bought my beach house with one trade, or if I'da made the big move in the first place...
Channeling doug kass here....bull bear bull bear best trading opp ever!
ReplyDelete03:00 PM pop, right on schedule.
ReplyDeleteRight now it looks more like a -100 point gap down.
ReplyDeleteThis is the test I was thinking we would get...yesterdaays lows have to hold
ReplyDelete1233 1s 38% retracement level from July 2010 low to May 2011 high...let's see if that holds
ReplyDeleteThe algo threw out a bottom spotter yesterday at SPX 1234.56. LT went bull again with a stop at 1259.
ReplyDeleteThey need to make people like me that bought yesterday's dip sweat and remember that it ain't THAT eSy.
ReplyDeleteerr...easy
ReplyDeleteANR- Ugh...
ReplyDeleteNever tell the market what to do.
ReplyDeleteYep, if the 1233ish fails, then the famous 1220, then I have 1190ish. Yikes.
ReplyDeletefwiw, I've noticed that every time I 'suggest' taking profits when you have them...it pays to consider the suggestion.
ReplyDeleteGS has been selling the ES since the open, actually surprised we aren't down more. painful couple of weeks that's for sure.
ReplyDeleteMy first thought is this is only natural to have a back test...we had a nasty drop and there are lots of signs of weakness...it would be very unnatural for the market to just reverse and gap higher, especially with the jobs report ahead of us.
ReplyDeleteNo one is expecting a good report tomorrow, especially with today's drop. However, jobless claims over the past several weeks suggest a decent report tomorrow, at least better than last month:
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3063-economicCalendar.html?mod=mdc_h_cmgrel
KCLI - is green, bless it's heart. All the rest in my port are red. Er, SLV is another exception.
ReplyDeleteMy daily chart is normally set at 180 days when I look for support, etc. Yesterday I had to switch it to 360. Not good.
ReplyDeleteshort tf 57.7, 2 cars
ReplyDelete1/2 off 55.80...needed that!
ReplyDeleteCLR is going to put pressure on BEXP. We might get our gap fill CP.
ReplyDeletestop 57
ReplyDeleteNice to see you back bro :)
ReplyDeletelast 1/2 off 55...two bad I only traded 2 cars, but I'll tell you it is HARD to trade without having an income, 90%+ of the time I pass on trades just because I nut up
ReplyDelete5 more bucks until MOG's floor. I like this call more and more every day.
ReplyDeletehey Mark! yeah, I need to get some courage back
ReplyDeleteCode blue...ANR in room 222.
ReplyDeletebailed on my tf trade too soon, normally I like to trade 3-5 cars, easier to keep a runner on
ReplyDeleteHolly cow. S2 for GMO is 4.04.
ReplyDeleteIt's all good, guys. A lot of pent-up anxiety, apparently- the selling will end at some point, and we just get on with it.
ReplyDeleteI've found recently it helps to consider the port an asset much like my home. It would be insane to track the market price of my home twice daily on Zillow.
JB- I hear ya'. Same thing for me, but I better get used to it as I'm guessing I have about 3 weeks left of income.
ReplyDeletewe can start our own club bro, unemployed traders of california.
ReplyDeleteJust saw a note out from Sterne Agee on WNC:
ReplyDelete"In the report, Sterne Agee wrote, "THE WORST HASS PASSED - 2Q MISS SHOULD CLEAR THE DECK The Good, The Bad and the Ugly? While Quarterly #s Miss Expectations, Positive Catalysts Around the Corner. Shares Should Find a Bottom Here. WNC's 2Q EPS release will concern some on the headline data, but beneath the release, events are lining up for the company to resume its growth curve later this year, and the news for 2012 and beyond has improved."
Sterne Agee rated Wabash National Corporation a BUY with a price target of $16.00.
Even thought they are mostly down (I think just following the market), good numbers out of insurers Cigna, Pru and ING this morning.
ReplyDeleteStory is still solid - undervalued with good earnings.
Sun Life earnings last night were expected to be hurt by falling interest rates, but profitability there was also up and above expectations.
Its all good fellas, until it ain't. Below yesterdays lows and we have some issues.
ReplyDeleteNice retest of the lows- if that's what it was.
ReplyDeleteNEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Billionaire investor Bruce Berkowitz and his Fairholme Capital Management will grill Bank of America Corp. (BAC) Chief Executive Brian Moynihan in an upcoming conference call, Fairholme said Wednesday.
ReplyDeleteAccording to a press release from Fairholme, the investor will host an hour-and-a-half conference call with Moynihan on Aug. 10, where "skeptics are welcome" and Berkowitz will "ask the toughest questions" submitted by participants.
The release said the call is meant to "better understand how Bank of America is navigating the economic environment." It comes as the bank's stock has plunged this year and Moynihan has appeared to be unable to quell many investor doubts.
A spokesman for Bank of America wasn't immediately available for comment.
Bank of America shares slipped 1.2% to $9.43 in premarket trading.
Fairholme holds about 92.7 million shares in Bank of America, or about 0.9% of the company, according to FactSet Research. The mutual-fund manager, and occasional activist investor, is the 12th largest holder in the nation's biggest bank by assets. The bank is the fund's sixth largest holding.
Fairholme said in the release that the fund believes Bank of America will generate enough capital to meet new global standards, a position Moynihan has strongly reiterated but which investors have doubted on occasion.
The release also said Fairholme believes Bank of America's management can put its legacy issues behind it and return capital to shareholders.
Bank of America has found its stock under pressure for much of the year, with shares now down 28% and trading at lows not seen since April 2009. The fall, and questions from investors, have come as the bank has taken multiple large charges to try and settle mortgage issues acquired along with home-lender Countrywide Financial in July 2008.
Capital has also been a key concern for investors since the Federal Reserve denied the bank's request to raise its dividend earlier this year. The bank and Moynihan have been adamant that capital is not a concern, but Moynihan's pledge to "modestly" boost the penny-a-share payout in the second half of 2011 looks unlikely now.
2 year lows for BAC.
ReplyDeleteSPY- Three lower lows coming up?
ReplyDeleteCP- Your not worried about the decision to challenge the state engineer, correct?
ReplyDeleteJust got off concall for FLY Leasing (FLY).
ReplyDeleteThey are an airplane leasing company based in Ireland. Trade at 63% of book value (which is likely understated based on recent aircraft sales), pay a 7% dividend and have done an excellent job of managing capital by doing things like buying back debt at $0.50 on the dollar over the last few years and buying back share when they were cheap.
Stock has pulled back from $14.50 range to under $12 and last night announced major acquisition to almost double airplanes on lease. Paying $150 million out of cash, plus taking on additional non-recourse debt to fund total purchase of $1.4 billion. grows revenue by 80% and will increase earnings and cash flow.
Have a medium size position in this, but I think it is good value here with a good income stream and upside potential.
jb/Mark- You should take the time to watch Jack Nicholson in 'Hoffa.'
ReplyDeleteWe can each start a Day Traders Local in our area. The key is to charge dues, and keep a percentage for each trader signed.
Bidding 2K shares GMO @ 4.11. I'll leg into this one if it lets me.
ReplyDeleteThere's your 3rd lower low.
ReplyDeleteGMO - "Your not worried about the decision to challenge the state engineer, correct?"
ReplyDeleteCorrect, the state engineer stuck to his approval a 2nd time, the county must be expected on a legal basis to represent the complainants IMO.
I believe they'll come to agreement via the 3M plan and the project will move forward.
Or, I could be wrong!
SVM - Moving quickly to close the open gap ($9.22), which one fills first, SVM's or BEXP's?
CP- Thanks!
ReplyDeleteClose your eyes bro.
ReplyDelete5.88 stinky on TRX.
GMO - We may get an (tentative approval, with 3M) response on the county appeal, the EDIA/ROD are end this year and first half nest.
ReplyDeleteIf I do/can add, I'd like to see $3 again.
Sounding the alarm, crowding around the exits ahead of tomorrow's employment report? First smoke, then fire, then firefighting?
ReplyDeletePM/PM miner relationship - Not hearing anymore how miners must lead the metals as confirmation of PM rally..., LOL!
ReplyDeleteLooks more & more like PM long, with short miners hedge to me.
Anyone else getting a little uncomfortable? I didn't even realize it because it was such a small position but my BTU got stopped out at $51.50 this morning....coal stocks are getting a major beat down.
ReplyDeleteGreat idea 2nd! I'll dial up Hoffa on Netflix and watch it today.
ReplyDeleteMark - TRX is a four letter word, I hate that stock
GMO filled @ 4.11.
ReplyDeleteGL guys! Pretty scary indeed.
ReplyDeleteFor what it's worth, I vividly remember all of us talking on the CC blog in November 2008 about SLW. I remember debating when it should be a buy and I posted about how it was not good that it made a lower low than the month before at $2.51....yep, because it closed about $0.05 lower than the prior low in October I think, I came to the conclusion that it wasn't a buy.
ReplyDeleteJust to reiterate, that was at $2.51. So when we say that we just took out yesterday's lows and that's the reason we're selling, it doesn't always mean its the right thing to do.
1227 low so far going back to Nov 2010
ReplyDeleteOne of these bounces will be real - just might not be today.
ReplyDeleteWe have an undercut low on the SPY with high volume and likely a lot of traders throwing in the towel. If it holds, these tend to be strong bottoms in my experience.
Also another for what it's worth, we just hit the highs from November 2010 that were resistance. This is also a resistance area from May 2010. I wouldn't be surprised if that is where big buyers come in...
ReplyDeleteAlso interesting the the DIA, SPY and QQQ (to a lesser degree) have undercut yesterday's low, but IWM and TNA have not.
ReplyDeleteThis to me implies index selling by big money and forcing the indexes down as they panic out.
SVM - Picked some up @ $9.54 for a scalp trade, expecting a bounce before the gap close.
ReplyDeleteIf not, that's acceptable, it can only go up ove the next month considering Ben won't allow this to snowball.
Or will he?
On the bright side, the breadth on the Nasdaq is only 25 to 1 negative. It could be worse!
ReplyDelete(actually, I don't think I've ever seen it this bad)
Another bright side: my WNC is actually ABOVE where I bought it yesterday :)
ReplyDelete(ok I'm grasping for straws)
10% off 2011 high...
ReplyDeleteBREAKING NEWS:
ReplyDeleteA French criminal court said Thursday it is in favor of launching a probe into an accusation that International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde was complicit in the misuse of public funds in 2008, when she was France's finance minister.
AKAM hanging in there...it may have actually found a bottom?
ReplyDeletewow. man this is really ugly
ReplyDelete40 to 1 negative breadth on Nasdaq.
ReplyDeleteYeah, i'd say. Every time it looks like it's going to bounce, someone comes along with a mallet and knocks it down further.
ReplyDeleteMy worst stock of the day - Lloyds Bank - LYG.
ReplyDeleteDown over 12%.
Getting into European banks was my worst decision last year.
BB > Yeah those European banks are getting absolutely crushed. So too is EWI and EWP
ReplyDeleteI know it's crazy to think of this on a day like today, but WNC is actually THE safe haven.
ReplyDeleteok, now it will crash.
WOW..the market at today's lows was down 8% from Monday's open. That's basically a crash.
ReplyDeleteHey, KCLI is up over 2%!
ReplyDeleteAnd what's with CNBC the last week where all the commercials are self-promotional with Welsh and Peoples?
ReplyDeleteCan't they get advertisers in the summer?
WNC - Looked like a great idea to me, still think it was and is. Lots of under priced value out there today.
ReplyDeleteDC area home prices continue to outpace, up 8.5% over last year.
ReplyDeleteKCLI - Beating PRU
ReplyDeleteSurprisingly I'm actually up $800 on all of my buys from yesterday...however, the correct play was what David and I talked about, but obviously we were too stubborn and went against our trade...that was to watch support get taken out, then buy when the market comes back above support. That's the smart way to trade a free falling market.
ReplyDelete'Ugly' is in the eye of the beholder, bro. From a buy-and-hold perspective, this is remodeling- a temporary inconvenience in the interest of adding future value.
ReplyDeleteI tell ya what I was originally thinking we would get to the 1,230 level then bounce. If today's low holds then I could see a scenario where this is THE low for the rest of the year.
ReplyDelete1150 -- "As Above the Neckline - So Below'
ReplyDelete1370-1260 = 110 → 1260-110 = 1150 possible
Guys! What have you done to the markets while I was asleep! This ain't pretty. Remembering the experience of October 2008, I just sold at $0.79 the 10 August SPY $127 calls I purchased yesterday at $1.29 for a $500 loss (yes, 2nd_ave, it WAS a good idea to take profits EOD yesterday when they were selling for $1.92), sold at $1.76 the 5 SPY September $127 calls I purchased yesterday at $2.38 for a $300 loss, and also sold my 6 $25 VXX puts at $2.14 that I purchased yesterday at $3.40 for a $750 loss. Looks like the market direction is down now, and it is silly to hold out-of-the-money options AGAINST the trend (it is much better to hold OTM options in the direction of the trend)...
ReplyDeleteI might reload my call options today if the market reverses now (making a double bottom) and then rises above the midpoint between the two bottoms -- $1230 on S&P...
ReplyDeleteAnyone who missed the last refi window- you might want to pick up an application...
ReplyDeleteYes, I had calculated 1170 by my poor eyesight and crummy chart, close enough to 1150 both down from here.
ReplyDeleteSRS - Real estate crash! Glad I sold several years ago, had to keep one to live in though and it's taken a bit of a bath.
from a "hold and no income" perspective, today is freaking brutal.
ReplyDeleteDavid, sorry I was too busy this morning to catch the open.
ReplyDeleteDo ya think Ben's gonna take revenge on the world and raise rates, or is the market simply agreeing with the rumors hinting at QE floated yesterday?
Wonder if living under privately owned overpasses huddled around a burn barrel cooking rat on a stick would make teapartiers happy?
Taking advantage of the panic and bought some shares in a small restaurant chain on the Toronto exchange that was down 20% from yesterday.
ReplyDeleteThey are more on the low to mid scale and I don't think bond issues in Europe are going to keep people from their pizza and burgers and with the potential for lower gas prices, revenues could even go up this year.
It's about a -10% pullback from the highs of the years right now. It may correct -20%. -25%. As long as you're diversified and in it for the long haul (that would not be you, David), I don't see a problem.
ReplyDeleteLook, what's Buffett doing today? Dumping his shares? If he is, let me know and I'll dump mine too.
ReplyDelete"Do ya think Ben's gonna take revenge on the world and raise rates, or is the market simply agreeing with the rumors hinting at QE floated yesterday?"
ReplyDeleteI think the market is concerned that the Fed can't do much in this situation, only some small cosmetic changes. They cannot expand their balance sheet by another few trillion dollars.
"It's about a -10% pullback from the highs of the years right now. It may correct -20%. -25%. As long as you're diversified and in it for the long haul (that would not be you, David), I don't see a problem."
ReplyDelete2nd_ave, those who are well-diversified will suffer a 25% pullback over the next year if the whole market pulls back 25%. ECU, on the other hand, can be up over the next year if they do triple their revenue in 4Q relative to 1Q.
Yesterday's sorry --- sellers get to high five each other for awhile.
ReplyDeleteDavid- Your ability to see the silver lining is impressive.
ReplyDeleteIf only my portfolio was stuffed with WWWW, MDS, SWI and EM.
ReplyDeleteWPRT -> $19? Perhaps we'll know when the bottom's getting close the day WPRT closes the open gap up?
ReplyDeleteThen again today's only Thursday and the FED hasn't offered up their bi-quarterly sacrifice to the market gods. Don't they at least need a weekend to mull things over, light a few candles, and perform a ritual dance?
Just made another trade where I swapped out 1 class of share for another (again on the TSX) for a small profit. This is a nice way to make some quick cash with very little risk and only becomes available when people are panicking, so I'm happy to facilitate their fear.
ReplyDeleteWe're almost at MOG's $85. Can't friggin believe it that close today. $2 bucks away!! :)
ReplyDeleteVIX almost 30.
jb- The best advice I can offer right now:
ReplyDeleteIs it easy to 'hold?' No? Then holding is probably the best move.
If this isn't a short term bottom then I will be absolutely shocked. Seriously. SPY volume is at yesterday's volume and we haven't even gone through the last hour where a good chunk of the volume usually comes. We could see a 450 to 500 Million share day, which is the same as the panic low in March.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Agree on the volume.
ReplyDeleteTOF, you probably could have said the same thing about every day during the October 2008 crash...
ReplyDeleteOh man, here we go again...
ReplyDeleteGuess BAC has to break 9 bucks today, hun?
ReplyDeleteWhat happened to the up tick rule ;)
ReplyDeleteEvery time I think of jumping back into BEXP I look at CLR.
ReplyDeleteBAC- Yep.
ReplyDeleteummm 67 to 1 negative on the NYSE breadth.
ReplyDeleteHERE COMES THE SMART MONEY SELLING
ReplyDelete70:1 negative...holy schnikies
ReplyDeleteRSI(7) on SPY at 14. wow.
ReplyDeleteMan, I am already glad I sold my SPY call options as soon as I woke up. That's what I learned after the 2008 crash -- taking losses quickly and not being stubborn. I took a risk with buying those calls, risk didn't pay off, so I exit -- end of story.
ReplyDeleteOnly one of my stocks is being weird today -- SORL is up 3.33%. I guess it was sold down SO FAR over the past year, that it's price movements are totally random now and do not depend on the world's economy...
ReplyDeleteTHANKS RB!!!!
ReplyDeleteI will refrain from buying the close like the other day, as I suspect some further bleeding.
ReplyDeleteI always try to look on the bright side: I've lost so much money in the last couple of months I don't need to re-balance the port...yahoo!!
ReplyDeleteA 4.5% down day? That's October 2008. We had two weeks in a row of such days...
ReplyDeleteholy cow...75 to 1 negative breadth on NYSE.
ReplyDeleteSORL is up 3.74% already. :) Those black box algos must be really confused today, looking desperately for stocks they should buy so as to balance all the stocks they are selling and remain market-neutral. They couldn't find any better stock to go long than SORL! :))
ReplyDeleteDavid - Are we heading into a 2008 scenario? I'm pretty sure everyone and their mother has prepared for such a scenario, as evidenced by the refusal to hire people, the hoarding of cash by companies, the hoarding of gold, and the excessive pessimism everywhere. To me this this is nothing more than a run of the mill pullback, albeit a painful one.
ReplyDeleteSigned,
Lazslo Birinyi
Margin calls began at 330 pm EDT.
ReplyDeleteTime to remember Hussman, isn't it? THAT'S why he was totally hedged for a long time, and THAT'S why the only way to fairly evaluate his approach is over a complete bull-bear cycle, as opposed to just focusing on how much he lags during the bull cycle. Hussman was saying that overvalued markets can have vertical drops until they reach the point where value investors step in. I think all value investors agreed recently that the fair value for S&P was 1000, right? So how about a vertical slide down to 1000?
ReplyDeleteI might change my mind about the close.
ReplyDeleteanyone got a rewind button on time? i'd like to go back to yesterday and buy OTM puts on SPY....thanks.
ReplyDeleteTOF -- are you still holding your ITM calls on SPY?
ReplyDeleteThought I saw 'Love, Lazslo.'
ReplyDelete100-1 down vol to up vol
ReplyDeleteWouldn't surprise me if the job earnings are "better than expected" tomorrow and we get a big bounce - maybe even 2nd's 200 point gap up. Not willing to buy into the close on this though.
ReplyDeleteDon't think this was a start of a 2008 type market either. Something like that has to be unexpected and would be very unlikely to occur twice in 2 years.
SPX H+S pattern still measures to 1150. But think we might see a bounce on the way.
ReplyDeletePicked up Aug. FDX $75 calls for $7.75. Nice whoosh close.
ECU.TO is down today only 2.82% -- so much for diversification... :)
ReplyDeleteDavid - Unfortunately, yes I'm still holding. Down $3,800 on those. All told I'm down $15k from my purchases yesterday, or about 4%. I unfortunately am not panicking on anything I hold, although I did get stopped out of BTU (smartly) at $51.5.
ReplyDeleteThis marks the 2nd year in a row where I have seen a major top, got conservative, went to cash, waited for a drop, then bought a day before the crash. Impeccable timing. David - we talked ourselves into the idea of waiting for the market to break support and then come back to it again before buying....with last year's experience in mind, we should probably ask why we're so stubborn as to ignore something we thought through rationally.
However, if this year is anything like last year, then holding here is the right move to make.
I've been working on that "Easy Button" thing, just need to put the finishing touches on it (involves a long-distance listening device placed in a strategic location). ;)
ReplyDeleteTOF, we marked $1250 as support yesterday, and S&P did close above $1250 yesterday. So a the correct move, from the TA point of view, would have been to buy S&P when it turned green yesterday at $1255. We got a little lucky in that we bought our calls when S&P was $1245, and thus didn't lose as much money on them today as we could have...
ReplyDeleteIf VIX rises to 35 tomorrow, then I *will* buy puts on it again.
ReplyDeleteWhat was the warning sign for us in September 2008? The congress/senate passed "the bailout" bill, but the market still collapsed. This time, the congress/senate passed the debt ceiling increase, but the market still collapsed. It is the reaction to the news that gives out the true market character...
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, if we have a big down day tomorrow, then I would imagine the Fed would have an emergency meeting over the weekend and announce some measures, so taking another shot at buying on Friday EOD might be a good idea, with the exit strategy of closing positions early on Monday if nothing positive is said over the weekend.
David - Volume on SPY today was 498 Million. The last day we had a volume day like this was the Flash Crash I believe, which was just pure panic. Today felt a lot like that, but more orderly. I suspect (hope) we will get a chance to sell at SPY 126 again (i.e., yesterday's close) shortly, which is why I decided to keep the calls. Also, a retest of the 200 DMA level from underneath wouldn't be out of the question.
ReplyDeleteyou're right, our timing on the purchases of those eases the decision making a bit...now if we get a follow through day tomorrow then I'm not quite sure what I will end up doing.
Carnage, pure and simple. And where did the tornado hit hardest? Why it was in the upper class neighborhoods of miners and oil barons. Or at least on the fringes of their best homes.
ReplyDeleteOINK - Anybody think this one still stinks?
ReplyDeleteSilver - I think they took it up a bit yesterday (or should I say allowed it to rise) in order to suck in newcomers.
ReplyDeleteThey absolutely couldn't allow the breakout to continue, so it was quite obvious from the chart a smackdown was in order.
Anyway, was today a failure to capitulate? There are probably a few out there setting the market sell orders now and considering the circumstances, I have to respect the TA target of 1150 on the H&S formation, as Kyle posted earlier.
Anyone watching CNBC now? Should be fast money on, but I'm getting a repeat of the 3:00 Maria Bartaromo show.
ReplyDeleteMaybe it's a licencing thing for Canada, but hasn't been a problem in the past.
Thanks.
HUN - if present formation plays out should be able to pick it up under $12.
ReplyDeleteJust got this note from my friend who is the mortgage broker from BofA:
ReplyDelete"Hey Guys,
I wanted to let you know that Mortgage interest rates are the lowest I've ever seen. With the market taking a huge plunge this week and the huge sell off today, they are rock bottom. I'm calling all my past clients as it's a feeding frenzy in the office right now.
If your parents, family, or other coworkers have a mortgage over 5.0% they should strongly consider refinancing. Par rate on a 30 year fixed with no points is at 4.375%. I just wanted to put the word out, and give me a call with any questions."
I get news feeds from the Dow Jones Newswire and one thing I definitely have noticed today is a bunch of CEO/Officer insider buying notices today which I haven't seen in a while, for what it's worth...
ReplyDeleteBB - The show is airing as usual. Here's a summary...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.fastmoneyreview.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=2698
FUCK!!!!
ReplyDeleteOK, carry on...
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-04/birinyi-remains-bull-on-stocks-after-worst-slump-since-09-1-.html
The S&P 500 average correction is 13 percent, Birinyi said today, citing his Westport, Connecticut-based firm’s research on bull markets back to 1962. While the drop this week surprised him, he said the decline in “marginal stocks” hasn’t concerned him. Should companies such as Priceline, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) and Google start to fall, Birinyi said he would reevaluate.
“If really the strength in the market starts to falter, that would trouble me greatly,” he said.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
As luck would have it PCLN reported after the bell today and the stock is up over 10% after hours so I think Birinyi can sleep well for now.
We're now down 12% from the highs and 8.4% from the highs of 3 days ago. The reason I didn't panic and sell my calls today, David, is after I stepped outside to console myself, I thought about what I would have done if I was in cash right now. The answer is I would be buying for a bounce to the 200 DMA. So why would I sell and move to cash if instead I was lucky enough to be in cash and would be buying here?
By the way, 2nd > here is the title to the Birinyi article above:
ReplyDelete"Birinyi Urges ‘Faith,’ Remains Bull on Stocks After Worst Slump Since 2009"
I swear he's not me but he could very well be reading your posts...
GOL - Crash landing!
ReplyDelete"Stocks Are Still Expensive"
ReplyDeleteBy DAVID LEONHARDT
Uses 10 yr av PE not ttm. Nice graphic.
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/04/stocks-are-still-expensive/?hp
T's - Must be short covering and front running Japan/Switzerland, etc.?
ReplyDeleteFunny though, buying T's seems like a dead end road if we're not experiencing an economic collapse(perhaps someone else is?), these super low rates should make PM's more attractive(Perhaps not as attractive as some form of debt in the world paying high rates?)
Am I wrong, or aren't most bottoms made intra day?
ReplyDeleteGot a few minutes here to see if I should put some cash to work.
A musical pick me up. In honor of today.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-RTh5t8yEqI
cp - FNMIX
ReplyDeleteWell? 5 minutes.
ReplyDeleteSD got creamed AH. Cramer?
ReplyDeleteFNMIX - Although I'm not so sure about Russia, the US Treasury or the Republic Of Cote D'Ivoire 2.5% WTFO.....
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/q/hl?s=FNMIX+Holdings
SD- Never mind.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeletePFF - Nice dividend
ReplyDeleteFNMIX - No offense but I'd rather buy a hard asset, I think.
ReplyDelete